ANother
Topic Author
Posts: 1833
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2005 2:47 am

Kerosene @ $93 Bbl

Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:04 am

According to IATA kerosene is now $93bbl or 254.3% of the price in 2000. See http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/economics/fuel_monitor/index.htm

Let's just hope the middle east cools down a little, or we will be seeing $100+
 
cedarjet
Posts: 8101
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 1:12 am

RE: Kerosene @ $93 Bbl

Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:29 am

We'll easily see $100. The Middle East isn't going to cool down, it's going to get a lot hotter. But that isn't even the problem, it's that the black gold is running out, and we'll see $100, $200, $300, $400.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
pavlin
Posts: 391
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:34 am

RE: Kerosene @ $93 Bbl

Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:43 am

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 1):
it's that the black gold is running out, and we'll see $100, $200, $300, $400.

Don't be too pesimistic. There are other sources beside conventional oil that are far cheaper than 200$ per barrel. Canadian oilsand are about 40$ per barrel of crude not refined.
 
kanebear
Posts: 852
Joined: Tue May 28, 2002 12:06 am

RE: Kerosene @ $93 Bbl

Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:15 am

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 1):
We'll easily see $100. The Middle East isn't going to cool down, it's going to get a lot hotter. But that isn't even the problem, it's that the black gold is running out, and we'll see $100, $200, $300, $400.

As mentioned above, Canada has reserves second only to Saudi Arabia that are profitable at $40bbl and are only just beginning to be explored. Colorado has huge shale oil deposits (more than the entire mideast combined) that only want for advanced production techniques. 120 years in the future hopefully we will have such technology. We will be nowhere near exhausting current reserves at that point. Peak oil is a joke and a myth. Oil won't ever be $20/bbl again but it doesn't need to be $70/bbl either. It's only as high as it is now due to speculation, unrest in the mideast and other uncertainty.
 
ANother
Topic Author
Posts: 1833
Joined: Thu Nov 03, 2005 2:47 am

RE: Kerosene @ $93 Bbl

Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:36 am

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 2):
Canadian oilsand are about 40$ per barrel of crude not refined.

But, correct me if I am wrong, that isn't 'light sweet crude' but heavy bitter crude (tm) . What's the crack-spread on that?
 
ghost77
Posts: 4458
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2000 2:07 pm

RE: Kerosene @ $93 Bbl

Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:30 am

Quoting Kanebear (Reply 3):
Peak oil is a joke and a myth. Oil won't ever be $20/bbl again but it doesn't need to be $70/bbl either. It's only as high as it is now due to speculation, unrest in the mideast and other uncertainty.

And as soon as US take full control of Irak's oil everything will be back to $40s!

ghooost77 APM
Ricardo Morales - flyAPM - ¡No es que maneje rapido, solo estoy volando lento!
 
philhyde
Posts: 574
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 2:16 am

RE: Kerosene @ $93 Bbl

Tue Jul 18, 2006 9:45 am

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 2):
Don't be too pesimistic. There are other sources beside conventional oil that are far cheaper than 200$ per barrel. Canadian oilsand are about 40$ per barrel of crude not refined.

Also don't discount petroleum alternatives, such as Biodiesel. Although not a ringer for aviation, blends with Jet A are being tested. Applications like this will lessen the dependency on fossil based fuels.
Canon junkie - Aviation Nut
 
Ttailsteve
Posts: 78
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 4:40 am

RE: Kerosene @ $93 Bbl

Tue Jul 18, 2006 10:35 am

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 1):
it's that the black gold is running out

The problem isnt a lack of crude oils its alack of refineries to process it. There hasn't been a new refinery opened int he US since the late 70s thanks to the NIMBAs.

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