texdravid
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AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 9:52 am

AA announced the following:

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/15076641.htm

Well, one thing the competition will be stiff, alright. I don't know, but won't CO and IAH have something to say about this?!!

Anyway, good luck to DFW. It will need it.
P.S. Don't get your hopes up, fellow DFW fans!
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commavia
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:20 am

Well, if this is true, which indeed it appears it is if a news conference is scheduled, than I am thrilled. This is what I have been predicting and advocating for months, as it appears to make perfectly logical sense to me. Plug D/FW -- a growing metro area with booming trade links Whto Asia -- into the economic beating heart of the entire Asia-Pacific region. While I could be wrong, I would guess that this probably means an application for DFW-Beijing, not DFW-Shanghai. While Shanghai would probably offer more onward connections because of the China Eastern link, AA probably expects that their application is strengthened by offering service not just from a new U.S. gateway to China, but also a new city for AA. I hope AA wins the authority!
 
thomasphoto60
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:22 am

Quoting Texdravid (Thread starter):
but won't CO and IAH have something to say about this?!!

Good question. I am not holding my breath however. Aside from the Latin American expansion, CO seems to have little interest in expanding IAH' s int'l operations beyond the above mentioned region. I have to give kudos to carriers like DL and AA that seem to give deference to their hometown operations in ATL and DFW in terms of high profile destinations, such as JNB, SVO from ATL and the above mentioned applied for China routes form DFW. Of course the most given reason for CO's lack of any real expansion from IAH to Europe or Asia is a lack of equipment, seems I heard this back in the DC-10 days. I suspect once the 787s come online IAH will probably get the brush off once again. Then again Houston can hardly compete with the NYC market, can it?

I suppose we will just have to wait and see.

Thomas

[Edited 2006-07-20 03:24:21]
"Show me the Braniffs"
 
102IAHexpress
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:22 am

Seems like every time AA announces a new international route it goes to ORD or MIA, so I like that AA is at least trying to bolster DFW international presence. That said, it’s going to be a tough battle for DFW to gain a piece of the so called lucrative China pie.
My two cents is that the DOT will give weight to an application that adds more non-stop China-NYC flights.
 
commavia
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:30 am

Quoting 102IAHexpress (Reply 3):
My two cents is that the DOT will give weight to an application that adds more non-stop China-NYC flights.

I disagree, especially now that although the New York metro lacks nonstop flights to Shanghai, the tri-state area has double-daily service to China, offered by both a U.S. and Chinese airline. D/FW, on the other hand, would be a completely new gateway to China for the U.S., currently lacking any service there, and also would be a new city for AA. It would also provide far more connecting opportunities than CO could promise over EWR. I do agree that AA is going to face an uphill battle with their application -- but because of the sheer weight of all the competing applications, not CO's in particular. Personally, I think this race is going to come down to AA seeking DFW-PEK and UA seeking SFO-CAN. I don't think CO's application is as valuable as the first was, as it's two main arguments -- that it would be a new carrier in the market, and opening up a new route to China for a U.S. carrier -- are both now moot. DL's application has the same problem it did the first time around -- the market it serves is too thin, despite the massive and, admittedly, unbeatable connection opportunities over ATL, and ATL is just too far east to be of value to major markets like the Midwest. Just my $.02.
 
travelin man
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:37 am

I thought DL was not allowed to bid on these routes as it was only open to incumbent US-China carriers. Did I dream that? I'm almost positive I read that on the government's request for applications.

I hope a US airline bids for LAX-China authority, as currently there are no US airlines flying to China from LAX. I would have thought AA would have been a good candidate. I am assuming you can bid for more than one route?
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:38 am

This is really quite a surprise to me. The South as a whole is not generally as Asia focused as the NE or west is. I think AA has a very good chance of getting these rights because the DOT does favor developing air service; aside from S. Korea and Japan, the South doesn't have a whole lot of Asian flights. Developing a decent presence in Asia means AA is less and less in need of acquiring anyone else's Asian system as many have speculated they will need to do.

If AA does pursue DFW-PEK and not PVG, the really loser in this could be Delta if they persist in pursuing ATL-Beijing - which could be AA's motivation. There are few markets that are served out of DFW that are not also served out of ATL so if AA gets there first, it leaves little opportunity for DL to justify new service to the southeast.

What is surprising is that AA still not interested in developing LAX. I would think this would be a good opportunity for AA to gain a limited access route from LAX that would help develop a west coast presence to Asia. Right now, no US airline serves any point in Asia outside of Japan from LAX which is highly unusual considering the size of the Asian market in southern California.

This will be interesting to watch.
 
102IAHexpress
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:47 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 4):
I disagree, especially now that although the New York metro lacks nonstop flights to Shanghai, the tri-state area has double-daily service to China, offered by both a U.S. and Chinese airline.

It’s true that NYC travelers have more than one daily option when it comes to traveling to China, but it’s also true that NYC travelers only have one US flag carrier option. If history is any indication the DOT will favor the NYC option even more this time, as it will give travelers more options from the NYC area and thus create more competition.
 
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OA412
Crew
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:47 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 4):
DL's application has the same problem it did the first time around -- the market it serves is too thin, despite the massive and, admittedly, unbeatable connection opportunities over ATL, and ATL is just too far east to be of value to major markets like the Midwest. Just my $.02.

DL cannot apply for China route authorities for 2007 as this round is open only to incumbents. It will have to wait until the 2008 round which will be open to incumbants as well as to new entrants. So, for the time being at least, DL's ATL-PEK application will not be in direct competition with AA's DFW-China application.
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DfwRevolution
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:56 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
The South as a whole is not generally as Asia focused as the NE or west is.

That's a rather dated perception. Last year, a Chinese shipping company named a superfreighter the Hanjin Dallas to commemorate the rapid trade growth between China and Texas. In fact, Texas is already one of the largest gateways to Asia, second only to California.
 
BigGSFO
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:03 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
If AA does pursue DFW-PEK and not PVG, the really loser in this could be Delta if they persist in pursuing ATL-Beijing - which could be AA's motivation.

I agree, WorldTraveler, that if AA is awarded DFW-China, it could hamper DL's chances. I would imagine DL's lobbists in DC will lobby hard against this particular bid as they know it could jeopardize their own from ATL in 2008. With this being said, I do still think AA would have a better chance of success from LAX.
 
centrair
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:15 am

This is actually a great move.

Not only is it a new gateway but it can offer onward service to South America which the Chinese government would love more of.

The Chinese government has been boosting ties with South American nations big time to improve trade relations. AA's South American network will work in their favor.

Personally I think AA should be doing more from DFW. I wondered why they did ORD-NGO and not LAX or DFW-NGO.

[Edited 2006-07-20 04:20:17]
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
commavia
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:16 am

Quoting Travelin man (Reply 5):
I thought DL was not allowed to bid on these routes as it was only open to incumbent US-China carriers. Did I dream that?

You are correct, my mistake. My apologies to all. Strike my DL application comments from the record.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
The South as a whole is not generally as Asia focused as the NE or west is.

Tell that to the Metroplex, which is now getting more than 35 weekly cargo flights to and from Asia, the vast majority 747s. The D/FW Metroplex, and really all of Texas, and all of the south in my mind for that matter, is doing booming trade with Asia, and particularly China.
 
102IAHexpress
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:29 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 11):
Not only is it a new gateway but it can offer onward service to South America which the Chinese government would love more of.

The US DOT route authorities are awarded with US travelers and US carriers in mind. It could care less what the Chinese government would love.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 11):
The Chinese government has been boosting ties with South American nations big time to improve trade relations. AA's South American network will work in their favor.

AA Latin American presence at DFW is pretty weak when compared to its MIA hub.
 
USPIT10L
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:33 am

Quoting 102IAHexpress (Reply 3):
Seems like every time AA announces a new international route it goes to ORD or MIA, so I like that AA is at least trying to bolster DFW international presence. That said, it’s going to be a tough battle for DFW to gain a piece of the so called lucrative China pie.
My two cents is that the DOT will give weight to an application that adds more non-stop China-NYC flights.

The reason DFW-China will work for AA is because of the massive feed AA has from DFW. As WorldTraveler noted, this might take some of the sting out of DL's future application for ATL-PEK, as most markets that served from ATL are also served from DFW.
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Lt-AWACS
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:48 am

I agree Texas is booming in China-Trade. The Chinese Consulate in Houston just expanded its operations for local trade/business. Three new postings at the Consulate just to deal with Texas business and trade!

an article from the Houston Business Journal, I provide this not as some Houston vs Dallas thing but to add to the comments above about Texas-China trade.
Fair Use snippets-
Houston trade mission to China yields early results
Houston Business Journal - 11:02 AM CDT Wednesday

Houston Mayor Bill White and Shell Oil Co. President John Hofmeister have already reported positive results in the midst of a weeklong trade mission to China.

According to the mayor's office, a number of agreements have been reached between the City of Houston and the City of Shanghai that are expected to bring closer ties and increased economic opportunities to both cities.

"We've worked hard to reach deals on a number of fronts, and we believe they will add more business and more jobs," White said in a statement. "China is booming, and Houston businesses are in the game. These are not just promises. We have some real deals and action items to pursue."
Agreements signed include:

* A partnership between the Mayor's Office of International Affairs and Development and the Shanghai International Merchandising Center to create a joint trade development program, including procurement centers to help match buyers and sellers of goods and services in the respective cities;
* An agreement between Houston and the Jinshan District of Shanghai to jointly facilitate business development for oil and gas and petrochemical companies;
* A joint-degree and faculty development partnership between the University of Houston and the East China Science and Technology University; and
* A partnership to develop shared exhibitions between the Houston Museum of Natural Science and the Jinshan District of Shanghai.

The Greater Houston Partnership has also been a party to the trade mission, which included stops in Shanghai, Dalian, and Beijing.


AA is being smart and it seems like a good shrewd move. This would do well for DFW, IMO, and would be marketed well by the COGs, Chambers and businesses in the North Texas area.

BTW Thomas I think the CO 787s will bring more to IAH like Madrid and some Asia. So don't fret  Smile

Ciao, and Hook 'em Horns,
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behramjee
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:59 am

If SA)">AA succeed with getting DFW-China rights, then they should go a DAILY SAME PLANE SERVICE with a B 772ER....routing be PVG-DFW-GRU...big money to be made here with such a service.
 
daron4000
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:29 pm

Also, UA might be gunning for SFO-CAN (Guangzhou) because in their Hemispheres Magazine, it said that an upcoming 3 Perfect Days Article would focus on that city.
 
102IAHexpress
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:30 pm

Quoting USPIT10L (Reply 14):
The reason DFW-China will work for AA is because of the massive feed AA has from DFW.

I agree that it could work for AA; but IMO the DOT will probably not award such a route, as it’s not in the best interest of the US.
If connecting the US with China via a fortress hub is such a great idea, then why did DL proposed ATL route get rejected during the last round of applications?
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:37 pm

This is a pleasant surprise, because all rumours were pointing towards AA wanting to open up LAX or JFK non-stops to China in lure of O&D. AA has a good shot with their application.

Quoting 102IAHexpress (Reply 18):
If connecting the US with China via a fortress hub is such a great idea, then why did DL proposed ATL route get rejected during the last round of applications?

Because Atlanta's logical cachment area for Asia services is smaller than Dallas.
a.
 
HPAEAA
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:39 pm

I could be wrong but iirc, I thought i remebered hearing that D/FW metro area was one of the largest cargo shippers to china... I think it would be a smart move on their part to tap into the market... also the feader aspect for passengers would be a huge plus for them.
Why do I fly???
 
102IAHexpress
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:48 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 19):
Because Atlanta's logical cachment area for Asia services is smaller than Dallas.

I don’t know,
but in the words of the DOT from the last go around, "The selection of Continental enables the U.S. to use its first opportunity to fill a critical service gap presented by the lack of U.S. carrier service to China from the U.S. east coast."

Perhaps the DOT will be inclined to narrow the gap between China and US east coast even further this time as well.
 
panamair
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:44 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
If AA does pursue DFW-PEK and not PVG, the really loser in this could be Delta if they persist in pursuing ATL-Beijing - which could be AA's motivation. There are few markets that are served out of DFW that are not also served out of ATL so if AA gets there first, it leaves little opportunity for DL to justify new service to the southeast.

Agreed..brilliant move on AA's part to send DL back to the drawing board. Even if AA does put up DFW-PVG instead of PEK (and gets it), it will still have an impact on DL's ATL-PEK application for 2008 as the South would already be opened up to direct PRC service (a big part of DL's argument). If AA gets the 2007 designation from DFW, DL may well have to reconsider and perhaps switch the 2008 application to one of its other hubs...if it's JFK, they may go for JFK-PVG which would put them into direct competition with CO's EWR-PVG (which presumably would be up again in 2008). If CO gets the 2007 designation, then DL will likely keep ATL-PEK in 2008 but have to compete with AA's DFW proposal then...

Overall, not a good one for DL no matter which scenario plays out..with one stroke, AA has diminished DL's offering under most scenarios...DL will have to rely more on its standing as a new entrant in 2008 to win approval or hope the DOT comes up with a "AA for ORD-PVG" type decision...
 
klwright69
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:57 pm

Well well, isn't this interesting....

Recently there was a thread about new routes from the USA to China.. MAH4546, didn't we just discuss this???

I stated that I seriously doubted AA would attempt JFK to China at this time. MAH4546 seemed to disagree, saying going up against CO would be in AA's best interest, and the DOT would view their application favorably, since it would increase competition. The fact that AA would rely on mostly O&D traffic at JFK would not be a major factor.

I countered that DFW would be more attractive to DFW since they could count on lots of connecting traffic and a good deal of O&D. In a sense at DFW they could get the best of both worlds. MAH4546 dismissed that idea, saying the DFW O&D to China would be inadequate, and connecting traffic would be "constrained to the southeast (his words)."

Well I was right. I think AA will look at JFK-China in the future, but certainly not at this time. There are bigger fish for them to fry. DFW-China is certainly that. Opening up a new gateway to the PRC, from one of the top hubs in the country. Best of luck to AA (and CO of course).
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 3:10 pm

Quoting Klwright69 (Reply 23):
Recently there was a thread about new routes from the USA to China.. MAH4546, didn't we just discuss this???

I stated that I seriously doubted AA would attempt JFK to China at this time. MAH4546 seemed to disagree, saying going up against CO would be in AA's best interest, and the DOT would view their application favorably, since it would increase competition. The fact that AA would rely on mostly O&D traffic at JFK would not be a major factor.

I countered that DFW would be more attractive to DFW since they could count on lots of connecting traffic and a good deal of O&D. In a sense at DFW they could get the best of both worlds. MAH4546 dismissed that idea, saying the DFW O&D to China would be inadequate, and connecting traffic would be "constrained to the southeast (his words)."

Well I was right.

Congrats.

I still think a New York or Los Angeles application would have had stronger merits. It is a pleasant surprise to see AA give their home turf a try, and they have a shot at winning it. However, the shot relies mainly on the fact that none of the three applications are particularly strong. UA's lacks in that they already offer four daily flights to China; CO's lacks in that they already offer Newark-China service; AA's lacks in that the Dallas market does not offer strong local traffic (if approved, this flight will probably realy on 75%+ connecting, like the struggling DFW-KIX route) and feed is still constrained (though both EWR, by geography, and SFO, by limited domestic network, are also connection constrained).

An AA JFK/LAX application would, IMO, have been stronger. It would have offered a clear advantage over the other two, while this one makes it a closer call. If AA gets it, it may hurt Delta if they still want an Atlanta-China flight, which might just have been part of their reasoning.

AA and UA have pretty equal shots at this, since they are both providing new gateways on either end. CO is on the outside looking in, IMO.
a.
 
AeroWesty
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 3:17 pm

Looking at this another way, according to the article:

"For decades, flights to China were operated by only two U.S. carriers — United and Northwest airlines. But an agreement between the United States and China in 2004 allowed five new airlines to begin service by 2010, with 195 new weekly flights, more than triple the previous number."

Two of the five new airlines allowed have already been named, CO and AA. If the U.S. negotiated for up to five new airlines, they certainly had competition in their minds. If they're reserving a spot for DL out of the mix, that could make AA's application out of DFW less compelling, since DL would most likely apply for ATL next year.

I've absolutely no basis to come to this conclusion other than to speculate on why so many airlines were negotiated for in the 2004 agreement.
International Homo of Mystery
 
DeltaSFO
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 3:25 pm

I have to think that DL saw the writing on the wall with respect to ATL-PEK long before AA decided to get into the SE-China business--after all, they (and their fAAns here) all but laughed at DL's application last time around. Funny to see some of the same folks touting AA's feed from the Southeast U.S. this time around.

Although ATL-PEK would do very well, and although most here seem to insist upon ignoring the fact that flight distances from most locations east of the Mississippi river to PEK are shorter over ATL than over DFW, I would not be surprised if, given the feedback on the last application, DL has already made the decision internally to apply for JFK-PEK in 2008.

The ascension of JFK to hub status, the growth in flight schedules and connecting complexes, the willingness of DL to take risks and launch service from JFK to new markets on new continents, and the newfound determination to compete with CO head on are all indicative of a strategy shift on DL's part in the New York market. This commitment to JFK as an international hub gives a potential NY-China application a great deal more credibility than it would have had two years ago, and I would not be surprised to see the China application moved to JFK and (hopefully) awarded to DL as a result.
It's a new day. Every moment matters. Now, more than ever.
 
Mcmax
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 4:20 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
What is surprising is that AA still not interested in developing LAX. I would think this would be a good opportunity for AA to gain a limited access route from LAX that would help develop a west coast presence to Asia. Right now, no US airline serves any point in Asia outside of Japan from LAX which is highly unusual considering the size of the Asian market in southern California.

It would be great if AA established a foothold into LAX-Asia destinations. However, perhaps it is not as high a priority as DFW/ORD-Asia destinations because AA can rely on its partners to connect LAX and the West Coast to Asia (e.g., Cathay Pacific, JAL and China Eastern).

In speaking with a AA FA friend of mine (who is based out of LAX and flies international for them), she says AA doesn't have the customs-accessible gates to expand out of LAX internationally. Currently, most of the customs-accessible gates accomodating the larger aircraft are almost fully utilized, especially with Qantas operating their Sydney flights out of the AA terminal. (Apparently, because Qantas helped pay for the renovation of AA's Terminal 4 at LAX, Qantas has rights to use these customs-accessible gates, and there isn't much AA can do about it.) As she was told, until AA can get more nearby gates at LAX (and not at Terminal 3 across the airport), LAX international expansion is going to take a back seat.

--Max (who is just repeating what he was told)
De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
 
commavia
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 9:01 pm

Quoting 102IAHexpress (Reply 21):
Perhaps the DOT will be inclined to narrow the gap between China and US east coast even further this time as well.

Or perhaps the DoT will now feel inclined to narrow the gap between China and the southern U.S., which now has no flights to China while the east coast now has 2.

Quoting DeltaSFO (Reply 26):
Funny to see some of the same folks touting AA's feed from the Southeast U.S. this time around.

There's a reason. The market from D/FW to China is larger than the market from Atlanta to China, as evidenced by the DoT's comments on Delta's application the last time around. Furthermore, D/FW -- being several hundred miles further west -- can draw on more geographically logical connections than can ATL. In essence, while ATL has more flights, it's location -- further east -- is what is inhibiting its ability to effectively serve this market -- ironic since it is situated quite well for markets like Europe and Latin America.
 
cslusarc
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 9:54 pm

Can someone give me an example of three markets (behind DFW) that would have faster service to China via DFW than the options currently available?
--cslusarc from YWG
 
YULYMX
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:01 pm

Quoting Cslusarc (Reply 29):

New Orleans, Florida, NC, SC,
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:28 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 9):
Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
The South as a whole is not generally as Asia focused as the NE or west is.

That's a rather dated perception.

In terms of market size, the south is still substantially smaller than either the west coast to China or NE to China markets. The growth rates are huge given the very small base the south had to start with but the whole premise of carriers wanting to get into the China market is because it is growing. I’m not doubting that Texas and the SE can sustain a China flight; I’m just saying it is still a smaller market than other more established regions of the country, as evidenced by the fact that there are no COMBINATION flights by either China or the US into the south or southeast US. Sure there are plenty of freighters but AA isn’t a freight airline and has to have a viable passenger business in order to be profitable on the route, which I’m certain they can do. Given the number of NRT and ICN flights into DFW, IAH, and ATL, AA has more than enough data to find a market in China.

Quoting Mcmax (Reply 27):
As she was told, until AA can get more nearby gates at LAX (and not at Terminal 3 across the airport), LAX international expansion is going to take a back seat.

And that could be very good for DL if they decide to expand internationally in LAX.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 28):
The market from D/FW to China is larger than the market from Atlanta to China, as evidenced by the DoT's comments on Delta's application the last time around.

I don’t believe the DOT has made any comparison between the ATL vs DFW local market size. Sheer geography, however, will favor DFW because ATL and DFW serve many of the same markets that could feed into a China route yet DFW is further west to pick up more Midwest markets.
 
positiverate
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:57 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 4):
DL's application has the same problem it did the first time around -- the market it serves is too thin, despite the massive and, admittedly, unbeatable connection opportunities over ATL, and ATL is just too far east to be of value to major markets like the Midwest. Just my $.02.

DOT wasn't necessarily looking for O/D traffic only. In fact the DOT initial solicitation stated that they wanted to be able to open new gateways, serve new regions of the country, and offer the most nonstop to nonstop connections. In the Show Cause the DOT, on page 23 of the Order, stated that it believes “…American and Delta have the strongest proposals of all the applicants for the 2006 award.”

Finally, page 25 of the Order stated the following: “The record shows that Delta has offered to provide the most on-line connecting service in this proceeding. Compared to American, Delta would serve more cities, provide more communities with first nonstop-to nonstop connections to China, and provide more flights to the Southeast region of the United States…”

These met all the requirements that DOT was looking for in their initial solicitation. DOT then decided to throw their requirements overboard. American’s Chicago-Shanghai flights duplicate a service already provided by United Airlines. American’s service adds virtually no new public benefit for this very reason. The selection of Delta would have provided greater public benefits due to the fact that Atlanta is a new U.S. gateway.

Quoting DeltaSFO (Reply 26):
Although ATL-PEK would do very well, and although most here seem to insist upon ignoring the fact that flight distances from most locations east of the Mississippi river to PEK are shorter over ATL than over DFW, I would not be surprised if, given the feedback on the last application, DL has already made the decision internally to apply for JFK-PEK in 2008.

They have committed to Atlanta, and have been working with the state governments and federal delegations from GA and surrounding states to talk up an ATL-PEK application.
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:14 pm

Quoting Positiverate (Reply 32):
These met all the requirements that DOT was looking for in their initial solicitation. DOT then decided to throw their requirements overboard.

The DOT didn't throw their requirements overboard. When awarding routes, the DOT is also charged to make sure the routes they award have some chance of being economically sustainable and that the traffic flows really exist. In DL's case, the traffic demand from the Southeast just wasn't there.

Sure, DL's application offered more new markets....unfortunately most of those new markets have virtually no demand for China service. How many people in Valdosta, Dothan, Mobile, Daytona Beach, Meridian, etc do you think are going to China? Even DL knew their demand projections from the Southeast were poor, so they added in a bunch of illogical connecting markets to beef up their traffic numbers. DL actually assumed people from MSP, MKE, DEN, ELP, etc would use ATL as their gateway to China.

AA's application from DFW should be a little stronger as it won't rely on the Southeast as the primary feed for the flight....though I'm sure they would get a little bit of feed.
 
TokyoNarita
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:17 pm

Someone has asked which cities would have faster service to China via DFW but those cities would also have ORD service to connect to AA's own ORD-China service. Although we may be talking two different cities (PEK and PVG) but can AA count that much on connecting traffic from DFW?

In the DOT's point of view, the necessity to connect the southeastern U.S. and China may somewhat already have been fulfilled by just going to ORD with AA or UA. Even CO's EWR hub can pick up some of the southeast U.S.-Asia traffic. Unless you are flying out of Jackson, MS, or Shreveport, LA, it wouldn't not be out of the way to use EWR to China from say...Florida and ATL if I can catch a non-stop to China. Just do the Great circle mapper. It would almost be the same as going to DFW. Does the flying public in the southeast U.S. would need another option by AA? I'd say maybe but it's not an urgent requirement. You can get to China from most of the cities in the southeast U.S. with one stop already and that is pretty damn good.

I would have liked to see AA estalish LAX-PVG. I feel that the DOT will favor a O&D city to China with a good amount of feed to that city, which may be NY again.

TokyoNarita.

[Edited 2006-07-20 16:42:13]
 
positiverate
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:19 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 33):
The DOT didn't throw their requirements overboard. When awarding routes, the DOT is also charged to make sure the routes they award have some chance of being economically sustainable and that the traffic flows really exist. In DL's case, the traffic demand from the Southeast just wasn't there.

So why did DOT then say they had the strongest application? That would imply that they also had traffic flows?
 
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par13del
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:19 pm

Is there not another way to look at this issue other than just an a/c purchase, what about customer loyalty, known manufacturer etc?
 
PlaneGuy27
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 12:27 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 11):
This is actually a great move.

Not only is it a new gateway but it can offer onward service to South America which the Chinese government would love more of.

The Chinese government has been boosting ties with South American nations big time to improve trade relations. AA's South American network will work in their favor.

American would be wise not to exploit any advantages of a third country in its application. DOT will only care about what the new service would bring to the US. Plus, Chinese are not going to transit DFW when they can go through Canada and avoid the hassle.

DFW is a big hub but it is not the top choice for a majority of the population east of the mississippi due to circuity - you can get to asia much quicker by transiting new york and chicago.

CO offers a new connection between two huge markets that currently isn't available on a US carrier - New York and Shanghai. But with CO fighting the NPRM on ownership and control right now - maybe DoT will have a mini-grudge.

AA does open up a new US gateway city and don't discount UA and NW - UA, even though they have a lot of freqs does look to open up Guangzhou which is desparately needed...

Plus NW and UA can apply for fifth freedom rights into secondary chinese cities with new ZOne 2 rights...

Below is AA press release

Press Release Source: American Airlines, Inc.

American Airlines Applies to Fly to Beijing, China, From DFW
Thursday July 20, 11:06 am ET
Beijing Would Be American's 32nd Nonstop International Destination From Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport


FORT WORTH, Texas, July 20 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- American Airlines today announced it has filed an application with the United States Department of Transportation to operate daily nonstop service between Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) and Beijing, China, starting March 25, 2007. American plans to serve the route with its 245-seat Boeing 777 aircraft in three-class configuration.
"We're acting on our longstanding desire to increase American's presence in the burgeoning China market. We believe we can best serve travelers by flying from DFW, our largest hub, to Beijing -- China's governmental center," said Gerard J. Arpey, American's Chairman and CEO. "If American is awarded this new Beijing service, it will provide substantial benefits by deepening the important cultural and economic ties between China and the North Texas region, as well as much of the U.S. that is conveniently served through our DFW hub. This service to Beijing will complement our existing flights to Shanghai from our Chicago hub.

"I should also note that the proposed resolution of the Wright Amendment debate is a distinct and key element in our decision to apply for the route from DFW," Arpey added. "Dallas/Fort Worth is a vital part of American's network. With both local and connecting passengers into and from a vibrant hub, it helps ensure we will succeed in opening up DFW as a new gateway to China."

Beijing would be the 32nd international destination served by American from its Dallas/Fort Worth hub. From DFW, American and American Eagle operate approximately 800 daily departures to more than 155 destinations. Among American's nonstop international destinations from DFW are cities in Argentina, the Bahamas, Belize, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, France, Germany, Guatemala, Jamaica, Japan, Mexico, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Venezuela.

"One year ago this weekend, we opened International Terminal D, and it is so fitting today that we join American Airlines in this historic announcement," said Jeff Fegan, DFW International Airport CEO. "International Terminal D was built for the communities of North Texas to reach out to the world -- and to bring the world closer to us. And I can think of no more fitting tribute to the success of our region, our citizens and our economy than for the very first passenger flight to China from the State of Texas to be right here at DFW. There is tremendous corporate and community support for this new service, and the time is now here to bring our two great business and cultural centers together."

American, a founding member of the global oneworld® Alliance, currently serves China with daily nonstop flights between Chicago O'Hare and Shanghai. From there, American's customers can also access other areas of China through a codeshare relationship with China Eastern Airlines, one of China's leading carriers. The introduction of nonstop service to Beijing from DFW would provide passengers with opportunities to connect to 24 points in China's interior region served by China Eastern from Beijing.

About American Airlines

American Airlines is the world's largest airline. American, American Eagle and the AmericanConnection® airlines serve 250 cities in over 40 countries with more than 3,900 daily flights. The combined network fleet numbers more than 1,000 aircraft. American's award-winning Web site, AA.com, provides users with easy access to check and book fares, plus personalized news, information and travel offers. American Airlines is a founding member of the oneworld® Alliance, which brings together some of the best and biggest names in the airline business, enabling them to offer their customers more services and benefits than any airline can provide on its own. Together, its members serve more than 600 destinations in over 135 countries and territories. American Airlines, Inc. and American Eagle Airlines, Inc. are subsidiaries of AMR Corporation (NYSE: AMR - News). AmericanAirlines, American Eagle, the AmericanConnection® airlines, AA.com and AAdvantage are registered trademarks of American Airlines, Inc.


AmericanAirlines® We know why you fly(SM)

Current AMR Corp. releases can be accessed on the Internet.
The address is http://www.aa.com




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: American Airlines, Inc.
 
Mcmax
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:22 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 31):
And that could be very good for DL if they decide to expand internationally in LAX.

And, if DL doesn't make it through BK, there's now a wonderful Terminal 5 next door to AA's Terminal 4 up for grabs. (Of course, I don't want to see DL not make it because healthy competition is good for the industry and passengers alike).

While it would be nice for someone other than UA to have a large international presence at LAX, I'm not betting on it being DL. They dismantled most of Western's international service at LAX (Mexico and Canada), and had been discontinuing many of the routes into LAX. They made a stab at LAX-HKG and LAX-NRT a few years back, and pulled out of that as well. As my AA FA friend tells me, DL has sub-leased many of the gates at Terminal 5 out to other carriers already because DL has dropped their presence so significantly.

Quoting TokyoNarita (Reply 34):
Does the flying public in the southeast U.S. would need another option by AA? I'd say maybe but it's not an urgent requirement. You can get to China from most of the cities in the southeast U.S. with one stop already and that is pretty damn good.

At the end of the day, given the 1-stop availability of service to China from most U.S. cities with substantial traffic, there should be no reason for any carrier to *have* to add non-stop service to China. However, the whole point of these route applications and bidding is to open up more non-stop service to China which has the most benefits to the U.S.-travelling public.

Is AA my airline of choice? Sure (no hidden biases here), but despite that fact, is there a truly supportable argument that DL and ATL are the best recipients of the route authority to China? When compared to other areas of the country, the Southeast seems to have the lowest priority for new non-stop China service. Based on my own analysis, the New York-metro area and California have a very compelling argument for more China service (e.g., largest metropolitan area in the US, large Chinese population in the area). I don't think you can have enough U.S.-China service from these areas. Chicago and Dallas (and probably Detroit) probably get China service merely because of their good locations in the center of the U.S., which allow lots of connecting opportunities on an efficient-distance basis. Without their good locations, I don't think Chicago, Dallas or Detroit have compelling reasons to add more China service which would exceed the need from New York or California. Unfortunately for DL, ATL is located too far in the southeast (e.g., geographically the farthest location in the U.S. from China) to meet the "location" need for non-stop U.S.-China service.

At the end of the day, we all can argue the merits of all the applications until we're blue in the face. And you know, it won't matter a bit, because DOT is going to do its own analysis and make its own decisions.

Just my 2 cents.

--Max
De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
 
ssides
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 4:59 am

In addition, I really don't think it makes sense to award the route to a carrier in bankruptcy. I know this might not play into the DOT's decision-making process, but IMHO, if you are looking at (a) an airline that is bankrupt and could force the US government to assume its pension obligations, vs. (b) an airline that has made great strides to avoid bankruptcy, keep pensions solvent and save shareholders value, it's a no-brainer as to who should get the route.
"Lose" is not spelled with two o's!!!!
 
AeroWesty
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 5:03 am

Quoting Ssides (Reply 39):
In addition, I really don't think it makes sense to award the route to a carrier in bankruptcy.

Are you referring to NW here, I hadn't heard what their application will be for yet. DL isn't allowed to bid in this round.
International Homo of Mystery
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 5:06 am

I would not be surprised if Northwest goes for something other than CAN/PVG/PEK, like Harbin or Chengdu. A little overlooked here is that the seven frequencies are for any city in China. However another seven frequencies will be available to an incubment passenger airline for a city other than Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou. Since Northwest already flies to all three of those, and perfers to do their China flying from Tokyo, they could apply for a smaller market (or maybe even two smaller markets and split the frequencies), serve it from Tokyo, and be virtually guaranteed that they will get it.
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AeroWesty
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 5:17 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 41):
A little overlooked here is that the seven frequencies are for any city in China. However another seven frequencies will be available to an incubment passenger airline for a city other than Beijing, Shanghai, or Guangzhou.

Excellent point. I was wondering how 195 weekly frequencies were going to be used up within 6 years awarding only 7 frequencies per year. Are there any other subtleties in the agreement like this?
International Homo of Mystery
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 5:42 am

The DOT has awarded dozens of route awards to DL since filing for bankruptcy. How do you think they got all those Mexico awards? BK status has absolutely nothing to do with DOT criteria.

Talking about DL being liquidated is completely ridiculous. Delta and NW have both returned to profitability and will likely report very favorable financial results in the near future. DL will very likely retain all of its gates and grow LAX just because no US carrier has developed LAX as the gateway it should rightly be.

I have repeatedly said that I believe that it is possible for AA to build a respectable Asian route system on its own using its 777 fleet, half of which is not being optimally used by flying to Europe. With the rumors of AA pulling back on some of its European flying, I would bet that AA is going to kick its Asian growth into high gear by redeploying 767s onto 777 routes and sending the 777s to Asia. They could grow in Latin America but I think they will grow to Asia. They will ultimately need more aircraft to replace the 777s to Europe in order to grow in Asia but there is a certain European manufacturer that would happily put together about 20 A330s in a year and lease them to AA for a very competitive price for a 10 year term. However they do it, AA needs to grow its Asian presence and they could do it if they figure out a way to get the 777s out of Europe and onto the Pacific.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:03 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 43):
The DOT has awarded dozens of route awards to DL since filing for bankruptcy. How do you think they got all those Mexico awards? BK status has absolutely nothing to do with DOT criteria.

You are right that being in BK has nothing to do with DOT criteria. However, the vast majority of the Mexico routes they got were uncontested. Of those they were competing for, they only got one, LAX-PVR.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 43):
half of which is not being optimally used by flying to Europe.

Flying to Europe? You mean flying to London (and a daily flight to Frankfurt). How is that not optimal? AA offers a full-service F product on their flights between Dallas, Miami, Boston, New York City, LA, Chicago and Heathrow, which is one of AA's most profitable stations. That is optimiziation if anything. It gives them a huge advantage on the largest premium traffic Europe route there is. And it doesn't hurt they serve five of the seven busiest US-London markets.
a.
 
kanebear
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:27 am

Quoting Cslusarc (Reply 29):
Can someone give me an example of three markets (behind DFW) that would have faster service to China via DFW than the options currently available?

Any point in Texas (HOU, AUS, SAT, MFE, etc), MSY, DEN, ATL, MIA, etc etc etc. DFW also provides one-connection access to China to MANY secondary markets that now currently do not have such an option. It's not just about where the Chinese want to go, it's about businesses in smaller cities travelling to China. I'd be MUCH happier with a CRP-DFW-PEK itin than CRP-DFW-ORD/JFK/LAX-PEK. Houston has HUGE ties to China, so IMO the service will be well utilized. I'd think opening a new market would take precedence over an additional service to an already served point. DFW-PEK makes very good sense.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 44):
Flying to Europe? You mean flying to London (and a daily flight to Frankfurt). How is that not optimal? AA offers a full-service F product on their flights between Dallas, Miami, Boston, New York City, LA, Chicago and Heathrow, which is one of AA's most profitable stations. That is optimiziation if anything. It gives them a huge advantage on the largest premium traffic Europe route there is. And it doesn't hurt they serve five of the seven busiest US-London markets.

Excuse the pedantry; ya forgot RDU. Also, it and DFW serve LGW.  Wink
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:33 am

Quoting Kanebear (Reply 45):
Excuse the pedantry; ya forgot RDU. Also, it and DFW serve LGW

I left out RDU because in less than two months, AA will no longer offer an F product on the route. Though yes, Dallas is indeed to Gatwick, to somewhat to AA's dismay (though I think they rather have DFW-LGW than have everyone else allowed to fly to Heathrow).
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yellowtail
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:33 am

A

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 44):
Flying to Europe? You mean flying to London (and a daily flight to Frankfurt). How is that not optimal? AA offers a full-service F product on their flights between Dallas, Miami, Boston, New York City, LA, Chicago and Heathrow, which is one of AA's most profitable stations. That is optimiziation if anything. It gives them a huge advantage on the largest premium traffic Europe route there is. And it doesn't hurt they serve five of the seven busiest US-London markets.

I belive AA flies DFW-LGW..not LHR.
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
ScottB
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:46 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 43):
there is a certain European manufacturer that would happily put together about 20 A330s in a year and lease them to AA for a very competitive price for a 10 year term.

And after that "certain European manufacturer" publicly tried to place all the blame for the crash of flight 587 on AA's pilot training, I suspect it is unlikely you will ever see them sell or lease any additional aircraft to AA.

Quoting YULYMX (Reply 30):
New Orleans, Florida, NC, SC

Most of these locations (except MSY) are actually closer to PEK via EWR than via DFW. Pretty much anything in the Eastern Time Zone would have a shorter trip distance via EWR. TLH-DFW-PEK is only 5 miles shorter than TLH-EWR-PEK, and JAX-EWR-PEK is nearly 240 miles shorter than JAX-DFW-PEK. Even BNA-PEK is shorter via EWR, and all destinations in the Midwest are better-served via ORD.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Will Apply For DFW-China Flights

Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:59 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 44):
That is optimiziation if anything

Operating aircraft that are designed to fly 7000 mile routes on 4000 mile routes is significant underutilization. It is precisely for this reason that Northwest opted not to buy the 777 - because it is way more airplane that is needed over the Atlantic.

It is also why DL will have and CO does have a significant cost advantage over 777 operators across the Atlantic by using the 767-400, an airplane that can fly just about any transatlantic flight with very simliar number of seats but with an empty aircraft weight 75,000 lighter for the 764 vs. the 772ER.

If you don't like the 330, then I'm sure Boeing will build about 20 764s for AA at very competitive rates.

[Edited 2006-07-21 01:00:35]