leelaw
Posts: 4520
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 4:13 pm

Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 5:06 pm

From James Wallace/Seattle PI (Fair Use Excerpt):

Mulally lays out strategy in face of Airbus challenge

"...From what we have seen, continuously improving the 777 will be our strategy in the near future," said Alan Mulally, president and chief executive of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

Technology being developed for the 787 will find its way onto the 777, which the company has no plans to replace, he said...

...In the interview with the Seattle P-I, Mulally made it clear that Boeing will not stand still while Airbus develops the A350.

The 777 engines and systems can be improved, he said. There will be opportunities to use more composite material, as well as more titanium and new alloys of aluminum.

Boeing also will continue to improve the manufacturing process, Mulally said. Boeing is converting the 777 assembly line at its Everett plant to a moving production line. The more efficient moving line system is used for the 737 in Renton.

Mulally noted that Boeing "has a lot of time" to make these improvements...


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/278165_mulally20.html

Perhaps it will be harder to "kill" the 777 than Mr. Leahy implied on Monday?

[Edited 2006-07-20 10:11:13]
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Johnny
Posts: 812
Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2008 1:38 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 5:15 pm

Perhaps it will be harder to explain the customers why Boeing needs an updated B777 and a big B787-version?

Why not planning a B787-10x to replace the B777-200LR ?

Airbus is planning a A350-900 and A350-900R,plus A350-900F.

So why has the B787 not the potential to grow the same way?

It would mean Boeing customers have to stick with two families, Airbus customers with one family.

And in the past we all have seen how successful Airbus was with their one-family for longhaul concept - the A330/340

[Edited 2006-07-20 10:17:53]
 
DAL767400ER
Posts: 5084
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 2:47 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 5:44 pm

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Perhaps it will be harder to explain the customers why Boeing needs an updated B777 and a big B787-version?

Different markets, and the fact that not every 777 customer will also order 787s and vice-versa.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Why not planning a B787-10x to replace the B777-200LR ?

Because the ULH market is limited as it is, and the market would not be worth it for Boeing to launch a second ULH plane within such a short timespan.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Airbus is planning a A350-900 and A350-900R,plus A350-900F.

And? The A345 got it's a$$ handed to it by the 772LR performance-wise, of course Airbus has to react.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
So why has the B787 not the potential to grow the same way?

Why should it when the market, as said, for such a ULH version is very limited, whereas the demand for the current versions of the 787 is enormous?

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
It would mean Boeing customers have to stick with two families, Airbus customers with one family.

BS. Can the A350 fully replace 773/ERs or A346s? No, it can't, so that means even Airbus customers like VS, IB or SAA, would still need 2 plane families.
And at the same time, Boeing carriers like AA, CO or DL could easily replace their 767s AND 777s with just 787s, and voila, they have just 1 family. So much simplifying things  Yeah sure .

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
And in the past we all have seen how successful Airbus was with their one-family for longhaul concept - the A330/340

So that is why so many carriers like LH, EK, QR, SAA and more operate A330s alongside A340s? Oh wait, there's no more, that's all of them. And nevermind carrier like AF or CZ which operate 777s alongside A330s.
 
pavlin
Posts: 391
Joined: Sun Oct 23, 2005 5:34 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:27 pm

I think Boeing wll launch 787-10X (but it will replace 777-200ER, not 200LR) in short period of time. It amazes me why haven't they done so since 777-200ER isn't selling so well.
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:43 pm

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 2):
So that is why so many carriers like LH, EK, QR, SAA and more operate A330s alongside A340s? Oh wait, there's no more, that's all of them.

I was under the impression that in Europe alone:
AF
LX
NM
OS
SK
TK
TP
also operate both A330 and A340 alongside...
 
Johnny
Posts: 812
Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2008 1:38 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:45 pm

@DAL767-400ER

You did not get my point at all.Probably i should write german...Just jokin...

See what i mean:

B787-8/-9 - A350-800
B777-200ER - B787-10 - A350-900
B777-200LR - A350-900R
B777-200F - A350-900F
B777-300ER - A350-1000 (and be sure there will a -1100! )

So Boeing will have two families with following members:

-B777-200LR/LRF/300ER ( modernized versions )

-B787-8,-9,10

Airbus will only have one BIG familiy :
-A350-800,-900,-900R,900F,-1000 plus probably a -1100

That saves a lot of money for the airlines!

And your list of operators of both A330 and 340 is not really complete...
You forgot for example AF,SK,Air Europa,AUA,Air Madrid,CX,Air China,Egypt Air,China Eastern...

 Smile
 
chiad
Posts: 986
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:56 pm

Johnny has a point there.
Wow .. looking at it this way Airbus might be doing something awesome here!
Thanks for the insight Johnny.
 
DLPMMM
Posts: 2121
Joined: Wed Apr 20, 2005 12:34 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 8:52 pm

Not quite

Boeing Airbus

787-3 Nothing

787-8 Nothing

787-9 A350-800

787-10/772ER A350-900

777-200LR A350-900R

777-200F A350-900F

777-300 A350-1000

This is more like the actual competitive match-up.
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 9:33 pm

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 7):

787-3 vs. Nothing

787-8 vs. Nothing

Indeed, but just to put this 'hole' in the product line somewhat in perspective:

Over the past 10 years or so, Airbus has not been selling any planes in either of these 2 categories (other than the odd ageing A310/A300 which dates from a different era of aviation), so Airbus not offering anything in those categories for the future mustn't be a bad thing for them really.

At first sight, it might sound rather conflicting to hear Airbus say there is no market when Boeing forecasts roughly 1,500 planes over the next 20 years in this segment, but actually it doesn't, because this really is an exceptional market.

The reason this market segment truly is exceptional, in that it sees a huge concentration in one area of the world: the USA. Bearing in mind half of this market segment is fully blocked off for Airbus because CO, AA, DL, (JL) etc simply won't even consider ordering from Airbus no matter what, the European manufacturer can realistically only hope to win a market share of roughly 50% of what I'd call 'the remaining free market which is open to competition', meaning at best 300 to 400 planes.

Now, is this worth going after? At guaranteed rock bottom prices because Boeing can drop the prices really low thanks to their guaranteed larger market share? Or can Airbus better give away those poor 300 or so planes to Boeing as well and make use of the fact Boeing positioned their 787 somewhat at the lower of the wide body market to effectively also replace those 1,100 to 1,200 guaranteed (and potentially 1,500) planes and come with a slightly bigger equally efficient plane which attacks the much older 777 as well and for which Boeing has no clear answer other than maybe this 777lite which is/was the topic of this discussion?

[Edited 2006-07-20 14:37:14]
 
F14ATomcat
Posts: 83
Joined: Tue Jun 13, 2006 10:26 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:22 pm

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):

Airbus is planning a A350-900 and A350-900R,plus A350-900F.

Again Airbus is planing this and Airbus is planning that. So what. They have lost credibility so no one who is serious about performance is going to bite on anything Leahy says, except cheerleaders for A, and non-discrimate consumers. 10 to 1 says Leahys' big mouth promised A-380 performance numbers without consulting engineering.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:45 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Over the past 10 years or so, Airbus has not been selling any planes in either of these 2 categories (other than the odd ageing A310/A300 which dates from a different era of aviation), so Airbus not offering anything in those categories for the future mustn't be a bad thing for them really.

Or more likely its because they can't build an A350 variant that small without sacraficing seat/mile cost. Boeing has already sold more than 300+ 787-3/8

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
The reason this market segment truly is exceptional, in that it sees a huge concentration in one area of the world: the USA.

That's ironic, given that the 787-3/8 only has two U.S. customers for a combine 38 aircraft while the rest of the world has ordered a 274.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Bearing in mind half of this market segment is fully blocked off for Airbus because CO, AA, DL, (JL) etc simply won't even consider ordering from Airbus no matter what,

Oh but where to begin with such ignorance...

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
At guaranteed rock bottom prices because Boeing can drop the prices really low thanks to their guaranteed larger market share?

Who garuntees that? Boeing charged arms, legs, and first-born children for the 777 because it was the best product and Boeing knew it. If Airbus ceeds this market niche to Boeing, then bend over and get ready to take-it.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Or can Airbus better give away those poor 300 or so planes to Boeing as well and make use of the fact Boeing positioned their 787 somewhat at the lower of the wide body market to effectively also replace those 1,100 to 1,200 guaranteed (and potentially 1,500) planes and come with a slightly bigger equally efficient plane which attacks the much older 777 as well and for which Boeing has no clear answer other than maybe this 777lite which is/was the topic of this discussion?

Boeing does have an answer for the 772ER. It's called the 787-10, and it's a lot closer to reality than anything we've heard this week from the Airbus camp.
 
YULYMX
Posts: 734
Joined: Fri May 12, 2006 10:53 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:51 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 4):

Even Air Canada use both, A343, A330
 
airmailer
Posts: 478
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2006 4:28 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 10:56 pm

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 3):
It amazes me why haven't they done so since 777-200ER isn't selling so well.

Didn't you just answer your own question?
Why would they kill their 772ER product that they can sell someone today for a 7810 product that they can't deliver until 2010 or so?

-- just a thought.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
(and be sure there will a -1100! )

... and so maybe you should also be sure that there will be a 787-11 or 777-400ER some day (say around 2009).
 
DAL767400ER
Posts: 5084
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 2:47 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:15 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 4):

Eh, I shouldn't be posting under 35C° anymore, can't think clearly under such circumstances.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
Probably i should write german

Then your post would be deleted for violating rule 3, paragraph 27, sentence 378, "Though shalt only reply in English"  Silly .

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
plus probably a -1100

Before that happens Boeing will launch a 79.9-meter long 777-400(ER), neither of which is even remotely realistic.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
The reason this market segment truly is exceptional, in that it sees a huge concentration in one area of the world: the USA

TWO main areas: USA and Japan!

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 10):
That's ironic, given that the 787-3/8 only has two U.S. customers for a combine 38 aircraft while the rest of the world has ordered a 274.

For now, and that can at least partially be blamed on the financial situation of most US carriers.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 10):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Bearing in mind half of this market segment is fully blocked off for Airbus because CO, AA, DL, (JL) etc simply won't even consider ordering from Airbus no matter what,
Oh but where to begin with such ignorance...

If you refer to his "half of this market segment", I agree, but he does have a point about said carriers not even considering ordering Airbus. Of course, they will publicly say that they consider Airbus as well (like Whitehurst (DL COO) recently did), but fact is that most of that is just talk to get a better deal from Boeing.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:35 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Indeed, but just to put this 'hole' in the product line somewhat in perspective:

Over the past 10 years or so, Airbus has not been selling any planes in either of these 2 categories (other than the odd ageing A310/A300 which dates from a different era of aviation), so Airbus not offering anything in those categories for the future mustn't be a bad thing for them really.

At first sight, it might sound rather conflicting to hear Airbus say there is no market when Boeing forecasts roughly 1,500 planes over the next 20 years in this segment, but actually it doesn't, because this really is an exceptional market.

The reason this market segment truly is exceptional, in that it sees a huge concentration in one area of the world: the USA. Bearing in mind half of this market segment is fully blocked off for Airbus because CO, AA, DL, (JL) etc simply won't even consider ordering from Airbus no matter what, the European manufacturer can realistically only hope to win a market share of roughly 50% of what I'd call 'the remaining free market which is open to competition', meaning at best 300 to 400 planes.

Now, is this worth going after? At guaranteed rock bottom prices because Boeing can drop the prices really low thanks to their guaranteed larger market share? Or can Airbus better give away those poor 300 or so planes to Boeing as well and make use of the fact Boeing positioned their 787 somewhat at the lower of the wide body market to effectively also replace those 1,100 to 1,200 guaranteed (and potentially 1,500) planes and come with a slightly bigger equally efficient plane which attacks the much older 777 as well and for which Boeing has no clear answer other than maybe this 777lite which is/was the topic of this discussion?

Do you really believe that there are no A300s, A310s (which sorry to say, do in fact compete in these markets and have been getting drubbed) outside of America?

Do you really believe that Airbus can afford to walk away from half of the world wide market for widebody lift, simply because it it's an American market? Or that they can ignore the trend of routes fragmenting to the smallest airplane that can fly a route with a competitive CASM?

Do you really think that despite the fact that the American carriers are not ordering the 787 right now for financial reasons, the 787-8 being the most popular order, accounting for over 80% of the orders for what has so far been the fastest selling widebody ever is just a fluke?

Da Nile... Not just a river in Egypt anymore.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):

B787-8/-9 - A350-800
B777-200ER - B787-10 - A350-900
B777-200LR - A350-900R
B777-200F - A350-900F
B777-300ER - A350-1000 (and be sure there will a -1100! )

Other people have already pointed out that the A350 does not compete with the 787-8 any more then the A380 competes with a 737. As for a 1100, Airbus has already streched this model to the outside boundries of how long it can get before it starts to loose singificant efficency just by aerodynamics. That's the price you pay for slotting between two aircraft families.


This is the real reason why Airbus isn't challanging the 787 directly. They can't make a model that competes with both the 777 and 787 efficiently. Since the 340 is pretty much dead as last nights steak, competing with the 777 is a bigger threat now then the 787 is in 4 years.
 
flyinghippo
Posts: 690
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 12:48 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:42 pm

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 2):
So that is why so many carriers like LH, EK, QR, SAA and more operate A330s alongside A340s? Oh wait, there's no more, that's all of them. And nevermind carrier like AF or CZ which operate 777s alongside A330s.

CX and CI also have 330/340 operating together.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
Airbus will only have one BIG familiy :
-A350-800,-900,-900R,900F,-1000 plus probably a -1100

Let's not forget that producing only ONE family of planes to cover such a wide range does not guarantee success. To remind you, Airbus do have something similar right now... the A330 and the A340.

A330 is one of the best selling planes, and has earned it's merits, but look at its bigger siblings... 342 is a flop, no one can argue against that. A343 is dead after a few bright years. A345 got killed by 772LR, so did A346 after 773ER proved it's capabilities.

So, one might say that if Airbus produced TWO family of airplanes to cover mid-high density, mid-long range markets, the A340 might have a longer life span than today.

Boeing produced the 777 to cover high density - mid to long range market, and the long range product is a much better seller (772ER/LR, 773ER). The 787 will cover the mid-size, mid to long range market... and it has the potential to cover the 757, 767, A300/310, and A332/333/343 markets... That's a pretty big range!

777 and 787, two customized planes that targets two specific markets, more tailor made for it's customers and markets for greater savings.
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:45 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 10):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Bearing in mind half of this market segment is fully blocked off for Airbus because CO, AA, DL, (JL) etc simply won't even consider ordering from Airbus no matter what,

Oh but where to begin with such ignorance...

Why shrug it off, its the truth.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 10):
Boeing does have an answer for the 772ER. It's called the 787-10, and it's a lot closer to reality than anything we've heard this week from the Airbus camp.

So why has neither a decision or announcement taken place.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 7):
787-8 Nothing

This is the case if you presume the 788 as being an 8 abreast seater. In reality, only a few of the 43 customers to date have said that they will go for 8-abreast.
 
787engineer
Posts: 545
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:08 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 12:51 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
And in the past we all have seen how successful Airbus was with their one-family for longhaul concept - the A330/340

Yet the A330/A340 family didn't cover the 210-250 capacity or the 330+ capacity, at least not efficiently.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):

B787-8/-9 - A350-800



Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
B777-300ER - A350-1000 (and be sure there will a -1100! )

Airbus designed the A350XWB to go after both the 787 and the 777, so the biggest A350XWB, the -1000, is as big as they can stretch the plane, while remaining efficient. If they could've efficiently stretched the -1000 to carry 375+ pax they would have. That's not to say there won't every be a -1100, history does repeat itself, a la the A346  Wink.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
Airbus will only have one BIG familiy :
-A350-800,-900,-900R,900F,-1000 plus probably a -1100

That saves a lot of money for the airlines!

Not if it doesn't cover the capacities they need. There are still gaps (210-270 and 350-500) that the A350 does not cover, and Airbus would be at a disadvantage with any airline that needs planes in those capacities. If airline A buys the 787-8/-3 to fill the short-haul or 210-250 pax need, why would they buy an A358 or A359, when they can maintain a lot of commonality by buying the 787-9/-10. If they need an even larger plane they can buy the A350-1000, but that would limit their 'growth', in the case the airline ever needs even bigger planes. That's the problem with a single family that's "in the middle". If airline A needs more capacity they can always go with the 773 or 748. Now if airline B decides that for the next 20 years or so they only need 300 pax aircraft (no 210-270 or 350+) then the A350XWB would be perfect for them. I think most airlines would prefer the flexibility.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Over the past 10 years or so, Airbus has not been selling any planes in either of these 2 categories (other than the odd ageing A310/A300 which dates from a different era of aviation), so Airbus not offering anything in those categories for the future mustn't be a bad thing for them really.

Yet there's a pretty clear demand for planes in this category. The 787-3/-8 will replace all those aging 757s/767s that are being moved from domestic to international routes, as airlines try to maximize their capabilites to their aircraft. I mean just consider the number of 737s that are flying internationally now, and the ever-increasing number of "relatively" smaller jets 737/757 flying overseas with ETOPS.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 13):
TWO main areas: USA and Japan!

Correction: USA and Asia

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
As for a 1100, Airbus has already streched this model to the outside boundries of how long it can get before it starts to loose singificant efficency just by aerodynamics.

 checkmark 

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):

This is the case if you presume the 788 as being an 8 abreast seater. In reality, only a few of the 43 customers to date have said that they will go for 8-abreast.

Last I checked the number was about 60-70% of carriers will be going 9Y. But even at 9Y the 787-8 is only a 230-250 pax airplane, compared to the A350XWB-800 which is 270+. Going from 8Y to 9Y in three classes will only add ~20 seats on the 787.
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 1:22 am

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 13):
Do you really think that despite the fact that the American carriers are not ordering the 787 right now for financial reasons, the 787-8 being the most popular order, accounting for over 80% of the orders for what has so far been the fastest selling widebody ever is just a fluke?



Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 10):
That's ironic, given that the 787-3/8 only has two U.S. customers for a combine 38 aircraft while the rest of the world has ordered a 274.

Think about it for a second before you start attacking me:

According to Boeing, the market for planes like the 787-3/-8 is said to be 1,500 copies (most of which are pretty much reaching the end of their useful life early next decade), of which roughly half is US based (and I hope you agree with me are pretty much blocked off for Airbus). That means on the international forum, Boeing has about 700 to 800 planes to replace.

Now, so far the 787-3/-8 has won 274 orders from these 800 in total. What does that proof then? So far nothing. You will see Boeing win more international orders, and then in a few years time secure many hunderds of domestic 787-3/-8 orders, thus proving my point exactly, which is Airbus can realistically only hope for 300 to 400 customers for their competing product (i.e. 50% of the really free market).

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 17):
There's a pretty clear demand for planes in this category. The 787-3/-8 will replace all those aging 757s/767s.

Correction, there is a clear demand for a BOEING plane in this category, which is why Boeing rightfully answers to this demand. However, the demand for an AIRBUS plane in this same category is much smaller and does not justify the investment.

If you don't believe me, just do this out of curiosity:
How many 757s are flying with US based airlines? And how many are flying with non-US airlines? Divide these two figures and repeat the same exercise for any other Boeing product and you will start to see why the market of the 787-3/-8 is a very special one.

[Edited 2006-07-20 18:41:12]
 
Boeing7E7
Posts: 5512
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 1:26 am

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Perhaps it will be harder to "kill" the 777 than Mr. Leahy implied on Monday?

Yup.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Perhaps it will be harder to explain the customers why Boeing needs an updated B777 and a big B787-version?

This market segment does not "require" a full update today. The aircraft is less than 20 years old and the 350 doesn't even go near impacting the market the way the 787 does for the 767/330 market.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Why not planning a B787-10x to replace the B777-200LR ?

Because Y3 will more than take care of that issue. The 787 was not designed to replace the 777. It was designed to replace the 767, and as it be crush the 330.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
Airbus is planning a A350-900 and A350-900R,plus A350-900F.

And Boeing already has the 777-200 cargo variant. What's your point?

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
So why has the B787 not the potential to grow the same way?

It's not designed to.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
It would mean Boeing customers have to stick with two families, Airbus customers with one family.

One family? What aircraft will serve the customers seeking a 330 replacement? That would be the 787. The 350WXB ver 2.0.05.6.9.10 fails to address the 787.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 1):
And in the past we all have seen how successful Airbus was with their one-family for longhaul concept - the A330/340

And in the future you will see how successful Boeing will be with 20% capacity steps from 120 to 400 seats in the Y1, Y2, Y3 program. Airbus will have what??? A320, A310 replacement - with what money???, A350, A380 with capacity gaps.

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 3):
I think Boeing wll launch 787-10X (but it will replace 777-200ER, not 200LR) in short period of time. It amazes me why haven't they done so since 777-200ER isn't selling so well.

Nope. It amazes me when people ignore the massive investment made by carriers for the 777's in the last decade negating the need for such a replacement for at least 10-15 years. You don't just buy and park a $250 million aircraft when only a minor incremental cost efficiency can be gained. Sorry, but the 25% claim is BS. Maybe they'll fill it with Helium? The technology is not there for a 25% efficiency jump in a single generation of aircraft. 10-15% from one generation to the next, yes. 15-20% over two generations? Yes. 25% over a single generation 777? Nice try.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 5):
See what i mean:

B787-8/-9 - A350-800
B777-200ER - B787-10 - A350-900
B777-200LR - A350-900R
B777-200F - A350-900F
B777-300ER - A350-1000 (and be sure there will a -1100! )

Actually no, I don't. Airbus has opted to go after the 777. Big deal. -1100??? Pure speculation. The 350-800 does not compete with the 787-8, the proposed configuration is no diffferent than say BA's 777-200's with 260 seats vs. 300 - perhaps this is the 25% improvement pipe dream Airbus speaks of. The -8 is for thin markets that the 350-800 will not be able to touch. Must be nice for Boeing to pursue projects on their own time table....
 
DAL767400ER
Posts: 5084
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 2:47 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 1:45 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 17):
Correction: USA and Asia

IMHO, no. I expect most of the 787 orders in Asia outside of Japan to be 787-9s, not 787-8s and sure as hell not 787-3s.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):
Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 13):
Do you really think that despite the fact that the American carriers are not ordering the 787 right now for financial reasons, the 787-8 being the most popular order, accounting for over 80% of the orders for what has so far been the fastest selling widebody ever is just a fluke?

Think about it for a second before you start attacking me:

I didn't write that  Wink .
 
astuteman
Posts: 6341
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:10 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 14):
Do you really believe that Airbus can afford to walk away from half of the world wide market for widebody lift,

According to Boeing, the "worldwide" market is for 6 250 2-aisle widebodys up to 400 seats, and 1000 widebodys over 400 seats, for a total of 7 250.

OF THESE, Boeing say that 1 500 are in the 225-250 seat range covered by the 787-8, and NOT covered by the A350X.

So Boeing think that Airbus are walking away from 20% of the widebody market by number.
Are you saying the CMO is wrong?  Smile

Incidentally, that 20% by number will be at best 15% by value, as these are the least costly widebodys you can buy.

Airbus COULDN'T do 2 families at once. Would be nice if they could have. They've focussed the A350X where the MONEY is.
It'd be wonderful if they could have produced a holistic product range, to an overall strategy. I don't believe today that this is feasible, from either a resource of finance viewpoint.
Therefore, it's hard to fault the positioning, given the constraints Airbus have.

BTW, I wouldn't expect Airbus to stay out of the 225-250 seat segment for 20 years. That will come when the finances and resources become available.

Regards
 
travelin man
Posts: 3198
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 10:04 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:21 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):
If you don't believe me, just do this out of curiosity:
How many 757s are flying with US based airlines? And how many are flying with non-US airlines? Divide these two figures and repeat the same exercise for any other Boeing product and you will start to see why the market of the 787-3/-8 is a very special one.

OK, then do the same thing for 767s, A300s, A310s, etc. The 787-3/8 is meant to replace those planes as well. BA has a big fleet of 767s. KL has 767s as well. LH has A300s/310s. These are hardly tiny airlines. It certainly is not a small or "special" market. And it is one that Airbus is not addressing.

And considering several US carriers operate Airbus aircraft, I think it is highly presumptuous to say US airlines will not buy Airbus. United? Northwest? US Airways? American? These are some of the biggest airlines in the world, and they all operate Airbus.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 2:42 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 17):
Airbus designed the A350XWB to go after both the 787 and the 777, so the biggest A350XWB, the -1000, is as big as they can stretch the plane, while remaining efficient. If they could've efficiently stretched the -1000 to carry 375+ pax they would have. That's not to say there won't every be a -1100, history does repeat itself, a la the A346

I give Airbus more credit then that. I doubt they will ever try a 346 "stretch too far" again.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):

According to Boeing, the market for planes like the 787-3/-8 is said to be 1,500 copies (most of which are pretty much reaching the end of their useful life early next decade), of which roughly half is US based

(and I hope you agree with me are pretty much blocked off for Airbus).

I absolutely do not agree with you on this point. More to the point, John Leahy's success at Airbus has been founded on going after and competing with Boeing in the US Market. Let's also not forget that Airbus changed from nothing more then a pet project of European governments to a actual real player when AA ordered the A300s. Airbus has badly managed that account since, but there are other carriers in the states - NW,US, UA come to mind immediately that Airbus has good relations with, and one DL, whose old vendor of Choice McDonnel Douglas is no longer in existence.

Airbus became competitive with Boeing when it started to aggressively go after the US market with the 320s.

The vast majority of flights that I take out of DEN are on F9 or UA. They both use A320s as the backbone of their fleet. UA's large order will be out there soon to replace their 767s and 757s. AA will have the mother of all 737 orders. If Airbus ignores these markets, they will doom themselves back to their pre-Leahy days.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):

That means on the international forum, Boeing has about 700 to 800 planes to replace.

Now, so far the 787-3/-8 has won 274 orders from these 800 in total. What does that proof then? So far nothing. You will see Boeing win more international orders, and then in a few years time secure many hunderds of domestic 787-3/-8 orders, thus proving my point exactly, which is Airbus can realistically only hope for 300 to 400 customers for their competing product (i.e. 50% of the really free market).

a) Yes, I do disagree with Boeing's CMO. I think the market for the 747-8i is non-existent, and the market for the 777 will shrink as a smaller plane with competitive CASM (787) becomes available. This is the lesson of globalization and deregulation. Barring artificial restrictions, a route will fragment to the smallest plane that can be flown the most frequently with the most competitive CASM.

b) You have already written off the US market to sustain your position that the 767, A300, and A310 market is not work going after. Now you are writing off 700 more orders (saying that Airbus could only hope to capture 50%). I think you need to re-examine history for a bit and realize that the 787's success has been the exception to the rule. A plane family has been considered successful if it has reached 1000 orders. Even in your worse case scenario, Airbus is walking away from 500 orders before the contest has even started.

c) Airbus is working on the wrong timing here. The market is ready for a 767/757/A310/300 replacement. The 777 was introduced a decade and a half later. That means that Airbus is in a position to compete for new orders, but there are not a lot of frame replacement orders coming.
 
DIA
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Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2001 2:24 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 3:00 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):
Why shrug it off, its the truth.

No, it's your opinion.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):
So why has neither a decision or announcement taken place.

In a nutshell...Boeing has made a decision to go ahead with the 787-10 wether or not Emirates will purchase them...and yes, they will be the replacement for the 772ER...as Boeing has said.
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 3:11 am

Personally, I'd love to see a 777-200ER with improved technology (787 composite fuselage skin, full composite wings, extended raked wingtips, lightened weight, improved aerodynamics) anytime over 787-10. I believe that the 777 platform still has a lot of potential, regardless what Leahy is saying about it, especially since Boeing was able to recently shed off additional weight. Such plane with proven efficiency record, and improvements implemented across entire product line, would be quite competitive against A350XWB, especially since it has the advantage of wider fuselage and greater cargo volume. If Boeing could start working on it NOW, it would probably beat A350WXB EIS by a year, and potential customers would be less reluctant to order it. Not to mention it would cost less to develop than Y3.
Here's to hoping that Boeing buys that idea...
777-8 = 777-200ER
777-8ER = 777-200LR
777-9 = 777-300ER
all after those improvements... I'd LOVE to see this happening...
POLAND IS UNDER DICTATORSHIP. PLEASE SUPPORT COMMITTEE FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, K.O.D.
 
Ken777
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RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 4:36 am

There are going to be some very interesting A-v-B battles in the market over the next few years as the XWB is going to generate more interest than the previous offerings.

I personally think that Airbus will deliver a very good plane and will get their fair share of orders in the smaller two versions. The big one has one major problem that I can see and that is the rather aggressive statement that it will be 35% more efficient than the 777. I think that statement will be a thorn in their side far longer than a "200 sales by the end of the year" flop. It is going to establish some firm expectations in the mind of airline execs and Boeing is going to be continually improving the 777. Looks to me like Leahy is going to have to eat his "25%" words somewhere down the line.

I guess now the question is how long it will take for Boeing to announce teh 777NG . . .
 
pavlin
Posts: 391
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RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 5:13 am

Quoting AirMailer (Reply 12):
77-400ER some day (say around 2009).



Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 13):

Before that happens Boeing will launch a 79.9-meter long 777-400(ER), neither of which is even remotely realistic.

there will not be such a thing as 777-400ER. The 777-300ER is only 40 or so seats in 3-class ncofiguration as 744.
 
swissy
Posts: 1481
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RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 5:27 am

Well the T7 is a great aircraft to begin with but it is 10 years old and in interest of doing business it is always better to improve as much as you can and sure with the announcement from A in regard of the 350 but some more pressure on B to push on with the T7 and see how far they can go, like 37 or 47 these two baby's have a rock solid foundation and came a long way since.

Cheers,
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:47 am

Quoting DIA (Reply 24):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):
Why shrug it off, its the truth.

No, it's your opinion.

C'mon, neither of these airlines will ever buy an airbus, in particularl wide bodys.

CO & DL - have gentlemens agreements with boeing on exclusivity, only legal issues have prevented this from going onto paper.

AA - not exactly walking down the aisle with airbus for reasons that we dont need to go into here.

JL (and ANA) - heavily involved in the development of the 787. Aint gonna go and order the compitition, are they.

..........The market for these four airlines alone is well over 400 replacement aircraft in the 787 sized category over the next two decades:
DL - 108 767's, 77 757's
AA - 33 A300's, 142 757's, 74 767's
CO - 58 757's, 26 767's
JL - 38 767's

Dont get me wrong, I love the 767, the point i'm making is that its not realistic to suggest that airbus are in with a decent chance with the above airlines.
 
travelin man
Posts: 3198
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 10:04 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:48 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 29):
Dont get me wrong, I love the 767, the point i'm making is that its not realistic to suggest that airbus are in with a decent chance with the above airlines.

What about the airlines you didn't mention?

BA?
UA?
LH?
KL?

Surely Airbus has a decent shot with those airlines (or would if they had a product to offer).

I fail to see how ceding the 757/767/300/310 replacement market for those airlines to Boeing will be a wise thing for Airbus? Those replacements will be needed for sooner than and 777/340 replacements. And Airbus has exactly ZERO products to offer in that market (unless you really try to stretch the capabilities of the A321).
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 7:54 am

Remember that Airbus' original proposal for the A350 involved putting new generation engines on the A330 which they said would give them half of the improvement they expected over the A330 and what they believed would get the A350 competitive w/ the 787. There is no reason why Boeing cannot put new generation engine technology from the 787 or even the 748 on the 777 - it just has to be scaled for the bigger aircraft. And there is no reason many of the composites in the 787 cannot be incorporated into the 777.

Consider also that Boeing wants to keep as much manufacturing capacity for its widebodies on line. The 777 and 787 will be manufactured completely differently. As long as the 777 can be competitive, it makes all the sense in the world for Boeing to build as many 777s and 787s as possible.

Consider also that Boeing probably is not ready to write off its development costs on the 777. Each successive copy of the 777 becomes more profitable or provide the opportunity to discount more deeply.

And shutting down the the 777 depresses the resell value of existing 777s, something Boeing does not want to do to its customers.

No matter how you slice it, the 777 will continue to be a very viable long haul aircraft for years.
 
sparkingwave
Posts: 563
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:01 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:06 am

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Perhaps it will be harder to "kill" the 777 than Mr. Leahy implied on Monday?

Perhaps the 777 of 2006 will not be hard to kill, but the 777 of 2012? That will remain to be seen!

Boeing will play the same trick it did when it first designed the 777 - they'll wait for Airbus to lock in its design for the A350 xtra-wide, and then they'll go in for the attack, pulling out all the stops.

SparkingWave ~~~
Flights to the moon and all major space stations. At Pan Am, the sky is no longer the limit!
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:33 am

Quoting Travelin man (Reply 30):
What about the airlines you didn't mention?

Yes, there are many but I was just replying to the 4 airlines originally refered to in reply number 8.

Quoting Travelin man (Reply 30):
I fail to see how ceding the 757/767/300/310 replacement market for those airlines to Boeing will be a wise thing for Airbus? Those replacements will be needed for sooner than and 777/340 replacements. And Airbus has exactly ZERO products to offer in that market (unless you really try to stretch the capabilities of the A321).

Its a common topic here - why did airbus not develop a direct A300/310 successor. The answer is quite easy - the market for such an aircraft is very small, and non existant in some parts of the world. The 783 will only sell substantially in the japan region.

Taking europe as an example, where many airlines operated the A300 on short sectors in the 80s, the market has become more fragmented due to several factors, princepally the deregulation of the airline industry which introduced many new carriers all fighting for the same business, and also the increase of in the number of direct short haul routes (p2p). Where in the 80s we saw the likes of Air France, Alitalia, Air Inter, SAS, Swiss, KLM, etc using the A300 on shorter sectors, all of these with the exception of Lufthansa have moved towards narrow bodys, more direct routes, and higher frequencys.

Looking at the A310, while it was a great aircraft and helped many a small carrier to establish certain thin l/h routes, it was never a particularly structurally efficient plane. Like the 736 and A318, it carries around a lot of excess weight for its size. In a similar way that tha 736 has not sold very well due in part to the fact that it is only marginally cheaper to operate than a 73G yet the latter carries a good deal more revenue, the A332 would be only a little dearer to run than a shorter version (think A331), yet can earn more revenue.
 
flydreamliner
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 7:05 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 8:45 am

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 27):
there will not be such a thing as 777-400ER. The 777-300ER is only 40 or so seats in 3-class ncofiguration as 744.

Yeah, but 744 is going away - being replaced by the larger 748. I'm not saying we'll see 777 get longer, but there is solidly 10 feet, at least, they could stretch that fuselage. The 777 undercarriage has more flexibility than either A346 or 748, both of which are longer jets. For sure expect to see lighter, more aerodynamic 777s with newer, more sophisticated engines.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:09 am

Quoting Travelin man (Reply 30):
What about the airlines you didn't mention:
BA?
UA?
LH?
KL?

Surely Airbus has a decent shot with those airlines (or would if they had a product to offer).

I fail to see how ceding the 757/767/300/310 replacement market for those airlines to Boeing will be a wise thing for Airbus?

Don't you see the business case for Airbus to actually launch a completely new product dedicated to this market is very weak to virtually non-existing?

The total market we are discussing here is estimated at 'only' 1,500 planes, which is already a very limited market to see 2 dedicated new products compete in: 750 planes each (going from a 50/50 split) is not really a great sales outlook to start with when the planes may only cost around $100M to $125M. With part of the market shielded off from open and fair competition because Boeing has the guarantee they will get all the replacement orders from DL, AA, CO, JL, etc the already marginal business case for the competing product becomes almost non existing.

Nobody is going to invest many billions in a new plane which will not sell enough to break even and with the prospect of only 300 to 400 sales for Airbus, these is just no way they can turn a decent profit on a program which likely would cost them anything from 6 to 8 BN dollars.

If the market segment would be bigger or the entire market would be open to competition, then there might just be room for 2 and airbus might have built a A310 successor long ago, but the gentleman's agreement between several big US airlines and Boeing is distorting and even preventing competition in this segment.

[Edited 2006-07-21 02:13:00]

[Edited 2006-07-21 02:22:04]
 
travelin man
Posts: 3198
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 10:04 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:17 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 35):
Nobody is going to invest many billions in a new plane which will not sell enough to break even and with the prospect of only 300 to 400 sales for Airbus, these is just no way they can turn a decent profit on a program which likely would cost them anything from 6 to 8 BN dollars.

You just described the A380.
 
slz396
Posts: 1883
Joined: Tue Oct 02, 2001 7:01 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:26 am

Not really, since Airbus forecasts to sell 800 of them and at much higher rates than those of their theoretical 787-3/-8 competitor we've been discussing here.

Double the sales at double the price, for a program not even twice as expensive: a completely different business case.

[Edited 2006-07-21 02:37:34]
 
qantas787
Posts: 216
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RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:29 am

One would think if having only one family line of aircraft is the be all and end all, Airbus should have now crushed Boeing from sight. It would seem more clever over such a large range of aircraft to have at least two families to work from.
G'day
 
travelin man
Posts: 3198
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2000 10:04 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 10:23 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 37):
Not really, since Airbus forecasts to sell 800 of them and at much higher rates than those of their theoretical 787-3/-8 competitor we've been discussing here.

Double the sales at double the price, for a program not even twice as expensive: a completely different business case.

Others have forecasted that the market will be about 400, and the development costs will exceed 12 Billion Euros (counting delays).

The upshot is Airbus has already developed a plane with a very limited market. The 757/767/300/310 replacement market will be bigger than any A380 market (I do not buy for one second the estimate of 1500 planes, since hundreds of 787s have already been sold and the plane is still 2 years away.)

Or are you saying the potential A380 market is bigger than the potential replacement 757/767/300/310 market?
 
iowa744fan
Posts: 906
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2004 1:31 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 10:36 am

Quoting YULYMX (Reply 11):
Even Air Canada use both, A343, A330

AC uses the 345 as well. However, the bigger argument here is what is AC doing with this single family of aircraft that they have? They are replacing it with two families in the form of the 777 and the 787

Quoting EI321 (Reply 16):
Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 10):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 8):
Bearing in mind half of this market segment is fully blocked off for Airbus because CO, AA, DL, (JL) etc simply won't even consider ordering from Airbus no matter what,

Oh but where to begin with such ignorance...

Why shrug it off, its the truth.



Quoting EI321 (Reply 29):
C'mon, neither of these airlines will ever buy an airbus, in particularl wide bodys.

CO & DL - have gentlemens agreements with boeing on exclusivity, only legal issues have prevented this from going onto paper.

AA - not exactly walking down the aisle with airbus for reasons that we dont need to go into here.

JL (and ANA) - heavily involved in the development of the 787. Aint gonna go and order the compitition, are they.

..........The market for these four airlines alone is well over 400 replacement aircraft in the 787 sized category over the next two decades:
DL - 108 767's, 77 757's
AA - 33 A300's, 142 757's, 74 767's
CO - 58 757's, 26 767's
JL - 38 767's

Dont get me wrong, I love the 767, the point i'm making is that its not realistic to suggest that airbus are in with a decent chance with the above airlines.

So, what has Airbus offered DL, AA, or CO in the recent years in the widebody arena that would spark their interest. Is it Boeing's fault that they built what these airlines needed and offered them attractive deals that the airlines couldn't refuse? As for Japan, Boeing was wise enough to lock up industrial might in Japan since they knew it would carry favor. You cannot sit here and whine to us about airlines blocking out Airbus when Airbus does the same thing. I suppose that Airbus talking of putting an assembly facility in China was a different case? I assume that incidents like the Iberia A346/773ER deal were a different case? When is the last time that Boeing was seriously considered for 737s by AF, LH, and OS? When was the last time OS ordered a Boeing aircraft (not counting the Lauda fleet that it inherited)? I work for a US airline that operates a larger Airbus fleet than a Boeing fleet. So don't whine to me about Airbus being locked out of certain markets and regions. It is business and you need to know how to play the game.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 37):
Not really, since Airbus forecasts to sell 800 of them and at much higher rates than those of their theoretical 787-3/-8 competitor we've been discussing here.

Double the sales at double the price, for a program not even twice as expensive: a completely different business case.

Ummmm.....given that we don't really know what the final development costs for the A380 are going to be after all of these delays, I wouldn't jump to that conclusion right away. Granted, we also don't know what the development costs are going to be like for the 787. Plus, there is a flipside to your agrument. If Airbus can work out the kinks it is having, the A380 meets performance requirements, and there is not another aircraft with a similar CASM, then Airbus can sell those birds at a great price. However, we have seen with the 345 and 346, just because your project that there will be x sales and y dollars per aircraft doesn't mean that you will end up with xy in revenue. If the aircraft doesn't meet it's performance goals, then they won't be making much on these aircraft. It's all a wait and see game.
 
DfwRevolution
Posts: 8572
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:31 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 12:18 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 18):
Think about it for a second before you start attacking me:

According to Boeing, the market for planes like the 787-3/-8 is said to be 1,500 copies (most of which are pretty much reaching the end of their useful life early next decade), of which roughly half is US based

(1) Think of it another way: how would you rate the appeal of the A330-200 outside the U.S.? It's been very popular, no? There are 34 A332 customers in the world, and only two are U.S. airlines.

The 788 is now closer in size to the A332 than the A358. Boeing is in the better position to win these orders.

(2) You're personal estimate is that the U.S. carriers will constitute half of Boeing's projected 1,500 unit demand. That's 700-800 units. The combine 767 fleets of AA, CO, DL, US, and UA are only about 250 units. You think Boeing is going to replace every one 767 with three 788 in the United States?

Obviously that won't happen, and Boeing can expect significant demand for the 788 outside the U.S. market...

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 35):
Don't you see the business case for Airbus to actually launch a completely new product dedicated to this market is very weak to virtually non-existing?

The total market we are discussing here is estimated at 'only' 1,500 planes, which is already a very limited market to see 2 dedicated new products compete in: 750 planes each (going from a 50/50 split) is not really a great sales outlook

Oh snap out of it. The best widebody variant Airbus has ever sold is the A332 with about 350 units. And yet a variant built for 750 units isn't viable? Please!

There is one reason Airbus can't offer an aircraft in this niche, and it's because the A350-XWB will be too heavy to offer competitive seat/mile cost. The extra seats are necessary to dilute CASM to the point where its competitive with the smaller 787 variant.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 35):
when the planes may only cost around $100M to $125M

If Airbus could sell an A332 or A358 for $125 million they would have life by the balls.

They sold the A332 at $80 million a unit to Northwest and that was before the 787 even debut...

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 35):
With part of the market shielded off from open and fair competition because Boeing has the guarantee they will get all the replacement orders from DL, AA, CO, JL

You can't cry foul about fair competition when Airbus doesn't have the product these airlines want.

Not to mention, cut that to AA/DL because CO/JL are already 788 customers.
 
Johnny
Posts: 812
Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2008 1:38 am

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 5:09 pm

@Iowa744Fan
"Ac uses the 345 as well. However, the bigger argument here is what is AC doing with this single family of aircraft that they have? They are replacing it with two families in the form of the 777 and the 787"

-Yes, but at the time AC decided to replace their existing A330/340-Fleet, there was no complete A350-Family offered.
There simply was no A350-1000, no -900R and no -900F.

Also we have to see that AC needs the airplanes NOW and not in some years time.  Smile
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 5:49 pm

Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
AC uses the 345 as well. However, the bigger argument here is what is AC doing with this single family of aircraft that they have? They are replacing it with two families in the form of the 777 and the 787

Actually they are replacing two familys. The A340's will be replaced with T7s, and the dreamliners replace their 767s. Dont forget, there are more boeings being replaced there than airbus'.

Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
You cannot sit here and whine to us about airlines blocking out Airbus when Airbus does the same thing.

Exclusivity agreements and involvement in financing and development - what airlines do this with Airbus???

Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
So, what has Airbus offered DL, AA, or CO in the recent years in the widebody arena that would spark their interest.

It does not matter what airbus offer this group, they just wont buy it. What widebodys have they bought in the last few years anyway?

Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
I suppose that Airbus talking of putting an assembly facility in China was a different case?

Actually, yes it was. They are also talking about building a facility in the states BTW. Does that raise your eyebrow also?

Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
When is the last time that Boeing was seriously considered for 737s by AF, LH, and OS?

Well considering the fact that LH and AF have been europes largest 737 operators for the last 4 decades, I fail to see the point you are making. A better aircraft came along and they bought it. In the case of austrian, again I am confused at your example, they were always a douglas customer. Its hard to critisise them for buying what was undeniably a better plane.

Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
When was the last time OS ordered a Boeing aircraft (not counting the Lauda fleet that it inherited)?

What are you suggesting? They bought a 777 only a year ago.

Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
So don't whine to me about Airbus being locked out of certain markets and regions. It is business and you need to know how to play the game.

I said they are locked out of certain airlines, not certain regions. Perhaps you should read my post again.
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:18 pm

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 41):
The 788 is now closer in size to the A332 than the A358. Boeing is in the better position to win these orders.

I agree. Airbus are leaving a gap in their product range by offering a larger A350. That gap has been there since the A310.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 42):
@Iowa744Fan
"Ac uses the 345 as well. However, the bigger argument here is what is AC doing with this single family of aircraft that they have? They are replacing it with two families in the form of the 777 and the 787"

-Yes, but at the time AC decided to replace their existing A330/340-Fleet, there was no complete A350-Family offered.
There simply was no A350-1000, no -900R and no -900F.

Also we have to see that AC needs the airplanes NOW and not in some years time.

Correct. The same applies to NW, there was no defined A350 family to offer when they placed the order.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 41):
The combine 767 fleets of AA, CO, DL, US, and UA are only about 250 units. You think Boeing is going to replace every one 767 with three 788 in the United States?

There are 757s, DC10's and A300s also. The 737 can only replace a certain amount of the 757. With the american airlines like CO offering many new thin l/h routes, the 788 has a huge market in the states with smaller aircraft being favoured.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 41):
The best widebody variant Airbus has ever sold is the A332 with about 350 units

But it was a derivative of a plane that was already in service. It did not cost $4b to develop the A332 (like the old A350 was projected to cost)

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 41):
There is one reason Airbus can't offer an aircraft in this niche, and it's because the A350-XWB will be too heavy to offer competitive seat/mile cost. The extra seats are necessary to dilute CASM to the point where its competitive with the smaller 787 variant.

Correct, like the 777 it would not be economically practical to shorten the design further as it would have poorer CASM than the 788. This is why the 777-100 was not built, the A332 would have had much better CASM.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 41):
They sold the A332 at $80 million a unit to Northwest and that was before the 787 even debut...

Im not disputing that because I dont know much about that deal, but where did you hear this?

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 41):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 35):
With part of the market shielded off from open and fair competition because Boeing has the guarantee they will get all the replacement orders from DL, AA, CO, JL

You can't cry foul about fair competition when Airbus doesn't have the product these airlines want.

He's not exactly twisting the truth, that is exactly the case with those particular airlines.

[Edited 2006-07-21 11:24:13]
 
iowa744fan
Posts: 906
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2004 1:31 pm

RE: Mulally: Boeing To Keep Improving 777

Sat Jul 22, 2006 12:30 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 42):
@Iowa744Fan
"Ac uses the 345 as well. However, the bigger argument here is what is AC doing with this single family of aircraft that they have? They are replacing it with two families in the form of the 777 and the 787"

-Yes, but at the time AC decided to replace their existing A330/340-Fleet, there was no complete A350-Family offered.
There simply was no A350-1000, no -900R and no -900F.

Also we have to see that AC needs the airplanes NOW and not in some years time.



Quoting EI321 (Reply 43):
Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
AC uses the 345 as well. However, the bigger argument here is what is AC doing with this single family of aircraft that they have? They are replacing it with two families in the form of the 777 and the 787.

Actually they are replacing two familys. The A340's will be replaced with T7s, and the dreamliners replace their 767s. Dont forget, there are more boeings being replaced there than airbus'.

[/quote]

I do stand corrected on the 767 argument. That did slip my mind and I recognize you for pointing that out. However, they are still replacing the A330s with the 787 and are in effect partly replacing their "one family" with two. Also, the A350 was being offered and there was talk of variants, so the family argument doesn't quite stand so strong. Granted, there was no talk of a -1000 series aircraft to compete with the 773ER, but Airbus was pushing the 346E or HGW....which given the common cockpits according to many on here would give them the ultimate flexibility to operate the two aircraft (350s and 345s, 346s). In fact, this is what they were doing at the time. Also, if they needed planes right away, they could have leased or purchased further A330s, A345s, or taken delivery of their 346s. There were immediate options available, but they chose to replace their 330s/340s because there was a better option available from Boeing and the Airbus option at the time was poor. Also, more Boeings might be getting replaced, but considering that they are getting replaced with new Boeings while the Airbus widebodies are going completely....I would say that Boeing made the right decision.

Johnny, you are basically trying to say in your argument that the only reason why Boeing won was because Airbus was offering a worse product? Well, by that same reasoning, could we say that all of Airbus's success with the A330 in the late 1990s and early 2000s was because Boeing didn't offer the 787 yet? Boeing's inital success with the 787 was because the A350 XWB wasn't out yet? I assume by your reckoning that AC would have gone with the A350 if the current family was offered at the time?

Quoting EI321 (Reply 43):
Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
You cannot sit here and whine to us about airlines blocking out Airbus when Airbus does the same thing.

Exclusivity agreements and involvement in financing and development - what airlines do this with Airbus???

What airlines have exclusivity agreements with Boeing? Yes, AA, DL, and CO signed contracts with Boeing, but those had to officially be discarded after the merger with MDD. They still have a gentleman's agreement and are on extremely good terms with each other, but there is still nothing to prevent Airbus from selling to them. Airbus could have offered a similar deal, but chose not to for these airlines.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 43):
Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
So, what has Airbus offered DL, AA, or CO in the recent years in the widebody arena that would spark their interest.

It does not matter what airbus offer this group, they just wont buy it. What widebodys have they bought in the last few years anyway?

In the past 1-2 years, not much. They have been taking a trickle of 777s and some 767s. My point of mentioning the widebodies was that most of the arguments above were focused on regional widebodies, hence the mention of it in my post.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 43):
Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
I suppose that Airbus talking of putting an assembly facility in China was a different case?

Actually, yes it was. They are also talking about building a facility in the states BTW. Does that raise your eyebrow also?

Please do explain to me how this is different. Yes, I am aware that they are looking at building a facility in the US. It has been known for some time. I don't recall if they officially chose Alabama or if Washington and some others were still in the running. They are doing this for the exact same reason that they are talking of putting a facility in China. They are hoping that putting a facility in China will help to strengthen the ties to the local market and result in larger sales for Airbus in China. Likewise, Airbus is in discussions to put a facility in the US to build the KC-330 tanker aircraft for the US Air Force...again trying to show that local industry will benefit if they did this. Personally, I think that financially, these are both good ideas for Airbus. They realize that they stand a much better chance (or at least some chance) with the tanker deal if they bring in Grumman and build them in the US. They realize that they have very little (if any chance) if they plan to build them in Europe. If this helps them win an order, then it is a good move. My argument here is that a lot of people whine that Boeing links up with a lot of Japanese industry and then they get the local orders. Airbus does/tries to do the same thing. My argument is the double standard that applies here. In fact, are you aware that there was talk by Airbus back in I think 1992 to build a production facility in Minnesota? Northwest was trying to push it since they were starting on the path to becoming a larger Airbus operator.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 43):
Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
When is the last time that Boeing was seriously considered for 737s by AF, LH, and OS?

Well considering the fact that LH and AF have been europes largest 737 operators for the last 4 decades, I fail to see the point you are making. A better aircraft came along and they bought it. In the case of austrian, again I am confused at your example, they were always a douglas customer. Its hard to critisise them for buying what was undeniably a better plane.

Yes, they have been the largest for a while, but when was the last time that either airline bought them or even considered them? People are talking how LH is considering the 738/739 right now, but what are the odds of them not continuing to go with Airbus? Peronsally, I think that they should stick with the 320 family. Why introduce a new family of aircraft that performs the same mission when you already have an aircraft that does the same thing. LH and AF would listen to Boeing about the 737, but would do no more than to use it to get a better deal from Airbus (well, AF might change if for some reason a GE engine was not offered). However, the same situation exists for CO, DL, and AA. They have large fleets of 737s. Why should they introduce a new aircraft that does the same job? Yes, they may talk to Airbus and just use the offers to get Boeing to reduce their offers....but the same exists elsewhere. My argument is that both sides do it!

Quoting EI321 (Reply 43):
Quoting Iowa744Fan (Reply 40):
When was the last time OS ordered a Boeing aircraft (not counting the Lauda fleet that it inherited)?

What are you suggesting? They bought a 777 only a year ago.

My apologies on this one as I forgot about the 777 followup order last year.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 43):
I said they are locked out of certain airlines, not certain regions. Perhaps you should read my post again.

Either way, my point still stands that each company does that. They use influence - be it political or economical - to keep the other out. My airline hasn't ordered a Boeing aircraft for a long time. Does Boeing go an whine about not being able to sell to us? Do they just give up and not talk to us?

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