astuteman
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The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:03 am

A couple of things prompt this thread as a follow up to:-
A330 Improvements? (by A520 Jul 20 2006 in Civil Aviation)

1. The launch of the A350X (and 787)
2. The quantity of A330 orders at Farnborough
3. A small article published in this weeks FI (that I cannot find in FlightGlobal.com)

I thought the article in particular was pertinent additional information.

So far , to end June 2006, some 575 A330's had been ordered, with 420 delivered, for a backlog of 155.
In the 1st 6 months of this year, 35 were delivered, meaning the current backlog is 2 years worth at current rate (70/year)

This month, however, IIRC, Airbus received commitments for 40 A330's and 30 A330F's, (i.e. another year's production). If confirmed, these will take total orders to 645 and backlog to 225

IIRC, last year, some 50 A330's were ordered.

"New" A330 derivatives currently in the pipeline are the A330F (and the MRTT).

To my untrained eye, it appears that the long backlog of 787's, and delayed EIS of the new A350X has created a window of opportunity for the A330, which, along with the "new" derivatives, might yet still see significant quantites of A330's ordered in future.

1st Question - what are the possibilities for the number of future orders for A330/A330F? Could the A330 reach 1000 frames? E.G., if Airbus shift another 50/year more for the next 3 years, and 200 A330F's, the A330 could yet reach 1000 frames. Possible? Likely?

Now to the FI Article.
It was entitled "GEnx offered for future A330's".

Fair use excerpts:-

"GE is floating the idea of offering the GEnx to power future derivatives of the A330, including the -200F freighter, and tanker variants"

Tom Brisken, GEnx programme manager says " It offers significant advantages, and if 13% fuel burn means anything to customers, I'm sure there could be an interest".

Dr Kiran Rao, Airbus exec VP says "the GE offer could be of interest"...."it is our duty to look at it".



My initial thoughts had been that any developments to the A330 would be a waste of money, but, having thought a bit, and seen the article, I'm now not so sure.

For me there are a couple of key points.

1. I'm guessing that a straight engine certification (and the Fwd landing gear lengthening to give the GEnx space) would cost c. $500m
2. The A330F and MRTT are still under development and could be used as the mechanism for the certification.
3. Both models, I believe, would benefit significantly from a 13% reduction in fuel burn.
4. The development costs could probably be buried in these 2 programmes, and built into their costs (possibly the most important point).
5. On the back of that, the 6750Nm A330-200 could quite easily be turned into a 7750Nm 250 pax aircraft with the GEnx engines: The 5600Nm A330-300 could quite easily be turned into a 6500Nm 300 pax aircraft with the GEnx engines (and both with 13% lower fuel burn for a given mission).
6. Although on its own, this would not make the A330 competitive with the 787, it might make it far more attractive as an interim buy, or even as a longer-term mixed fleet purchase with the A350X
7. (opinion) - I could quite easily see (as said above) another 150 pax A330's and 200 A330F's being ordered yet (other views anyone). The improvement could stretch that number. It may also be advantageous to Airbus for the US tanker contract (winning which would add a lot more frames to the backlog).
8. GE seem keen to push this, as it could relatively cheaply provide them with economies of scale.

Realistically, I can't see Airbus pushing a lot of money at the A330, particularly at this time, but in future either.

But after some consideration, I think the points above could make a very strong case for the certification of the A330 with GEnx, particularly if the costs can be recovered through the pricing of the A330F and MRTT.
Daft as it may sound, it might even push future A330 sales beyond the 350 that I (finger in the air  Smile ) suggest, maybe even to 500, particularly if the US tanker deal falls to the MRTT.

Summary:-
Even without the GEnx there may be a fair bit of life left in the A330.
With it, there might be quite a bit more.
The case for the GEnx may be stronger than I originally thought.

Apologies for my inability to find an electronic link
(Leelaw, can you help at all?)

Regards
 
chiad
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 7:35 am

Very good post Astuteman. Thank you.
You should apply for a job in FI.
 Smile

The A330, especially the the -200, will be produced for a long time it seems.
If Airbus does everything right they should be able to keep the A330/A340 line open until the A350's start rolling in.
 
TL925
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 12:17 pm

I would argue that in the long-term the A330-300 will be affected less than the A330-200 with the introduction of the 787/A350XWB in the future. The A330-300 has found a unique niche as a regional widebody (especially in Asia), and will be less susceptible to replacement from the next generation of long-range widebodies.

The A330-200 has become a popular aircraft over the past decade for intercontinental routes, but that is the exact market of the 787-800/900. The reason I have excluded the A350XWB is because it is more effectively a 777-200ER killer due to its larger size.
 
A5XX
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 12:45 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Thread starter):
"GE is floating the idea of offering the GEnx to power future derivatives of the A330, including the -200F freighter, and tanker variants"

Forget the tankers..... It's not because the U.S bought a handful of european choppers lately, that they're ready to buy the KC330... Even if it means keeping the gas guzzling, pollution making, KC135 flying for 34 more years...

Perhaps, in 2040, they will transfer them to Cuba! Big grin

Gees, i'll be 78 years old, when they finally retire the KC135 !  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2005/06/06/AR2005060601715_pf.html


( tongue in cheek... just to tease you a bit, you Boeing guys)      

Besides... who still fly the 707's nowadays... let alone John Travolta!  

Yves.  

[Edited 2006-07-25 06:18:14]
we are the boeing... resistance is futile...You will be assimilated
 
ma66
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:06 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Thread starter):

When you are talking about production and backlog I think you should add the 340 series, since they use the same production-line. This will increase the number of deliveries to about 85/year, and the backlog will be increased with 69 (48 without EK and AC).
(backlog is about 2,5 years for the 33x/34x production-line)
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 2:30 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Thread starter):
and the Fwd landing gear lengthening to give the GEnx space

I'm not sure the landing gear would have to change at all.

This (GE CF6) has a 2.79 meter fan diameter.

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Grahame Hutchison



The GenX for the 787 has a 2.82 m fan (just 3 cm more), while the variant on the B748I has a smaller fan measuring 2.64 m. That one might do nicely seeing as it has bleed air, although I'm not sure what the thrust situation would be.

Great post as always, A!
 
astuteman
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 3:10 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 5):
I'm not sure the landing gear would have to change at all.

Thanks, WM. I picked that one out from an article on the "old" A350 (which I can't find now).
If you're right, it makes a re-engine prospect just that little bit cheaper.

Regards
 
slz396
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:31 pm

If GE is so keen on seeing their GEnx on the A330 (which looks like it has a big market ahead of it), maybe they'd be willing to cover some/most/all off the cost of the certification of the A330 with GEnx engines.

It would almost certainly secure them an overwhelming market share on the remaining A330s to be sold and delivered. I don't know what their current market share on the type is, but if anybody knows, we could easily find out how many more engines GE could sell if the A330 would be re-certified with the GEnx engine and from that derive if they'd be willing to put their own money in this project.
 
astuteman
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:41 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):

Very valid points, Slz396. GE may at least offer to "share" the burden.

However, I'm guessing that RR could quite easily counter-offer the "Trent 1700", which I'm assuming will still go ahead for the 245t A350X-800.
What's your thoughts?
Wouldn't be good news for Pratt  no 

Regards
 
slz396
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:48 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 8):
I'm guessing that RR could quite easily counter-offer the "Trent 1700", which I'm assuming will still go ahead for the 245t A350X-800.

Isn't RR going to design an entirely new engine for ALL A350XWBs, rather than power the smallest with one engine and the bigger with another engine?

Anyway, if you're right and RR still has the Trent 1700 planned for the A350XWB, then Airbus could offer exclusivity to re-certify the A330 with new less fuel consuming engines from the one manufacturer willing to pay the bill for them! An even better position to be in really.

[Edited 2006-07-25 09:49:49]
 
A520
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:56 pm

IMO, the major point here is EIS. What could be a reasonnable first fight and certification date for the upgrade as you defined here?
 
astuteman
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:56 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 9):
Isn't RR going to design an entirely new engine for ALL A350XWBs,

I'd understood that the "new" engine was to cover the 85000lb - 95000lb range, i.e. the A350X-900 and A350X-1000.
By inference, therefore, I understood the A350X-800 would "sport" the same engines as the "old" A350.

I'll certainly happily be corrected  Smile

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 9):
Anyway, if you're right and RR still has the Trent 1700 planned for the A350XWB, then Airbus could offer exclusivity to re-certify the A330 with new less fuel consuming engines from the one manufacturer willing to pay the bill for them! An even better position to be in really

True indeed  Smile

Regards
 
leelaw
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 4:58 pm

Has Airbus sold any A330-300s in 2006?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Maersk737
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:06 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 12):
Has Airbus sold any A330-300s in 2006?

Why do you ask that question?

Cheers

Peter
I'm not proud to be a Viking, just thankfull
 
slz396
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:07 pm

This year, Airbus following orders for the -300 version:

Air Caraibes 1 A330-300
Aer Lingus 1 A330-300
ILFC (for Cathay Pacific) 3 A330-300
and of course 19 A330-300 which will be leased to SQ through Airbus own leasing firm
 
astuteman
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:16 pm

Quoting A520 (Reply 10):
IMO, the major point here is EIS. What could be a reasonnable first fight and certification date for the upgrade as you defined here?

Good question - I'm not an expert.

I'd guess availability of the "bleed-air" engines would be the critical path.

It's certainly a relevant question, especially if you assume A330 sales are limited to the next 3-4 years.

If you believe that
a) the freighters
b) the tankers
c) the "upgraded" A330

all have a future beyond being an A350X stop-gap, then the upgrade might well have merit, particularly if the engine manufacturers "help", or the development costs can be sunk in the freighter/tanker costs/pricing.

Regards
 
leelaw
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:22 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 14):
19 A330-300 which will be leased to SQ through Airbus own leasing firm

That Airbus must act as the "lessor of last resort" for any A330-300 "interim lift" deals indicates to me that there probably isn't much profit potential in such transactions, at least not for third-party lessors which means the longer-term residual value prospects aren't too rosey as well.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Maersk737
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:24 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 15):
all have a future beyond being an A350X stop-gap, then the upgrade might well have merit, particularly if the engine manufacturers "help", or the development costs can be sunk in the freighter/tanker costs/pricing.

Has anyone shown interest for the freigter version?

Cheers

Peter
I'm not proud to be a Viking, just thankfull
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:30 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 16):
That Airbus must act as the "lessor of last resort" for any A330-300 "interim lift" deals indicates to me that there probably isn't much profit potential in such transactions, at least not for third-party lessors which means the longer-term residual value prospects aren't too rosey as well.

Or it may boil down to the fact that no lessor has enough A330-300s available to cover SQ's requirement. Besides, I am not so sure if those A333s will be a stop-gap only, or if SQ will actually use them as SEA people movers for many years to come, as neither the 787 nor the 350 will really adress this issue properly. Thus I wouldn't rule out additional A333 add-on orders from SEA in the next couple of months. And that would be very welcome news for the residual value of the A333s.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
 
astuteman
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:50 pm

Quoting Maersk737 (Reply 17):
Has anyone shown interest for the freigter version?

Airbus Sells 30(!) A330-200F! (by Scorpio Jul 21 2006 in Civil Aviation)

Yes indeed!
Where've you been?  Smile

Regards
 
nudelhirsch
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 5:57 pm

With the 330 Airbus is in a good position. The big airlines look at large fleet replacements, mainly looking at the 350 for that, but Airbus has a lot of small-order-customers, airlines with low numbers in their fleet. They might need additional frames or replacements, and for them, commonality is crucial.
With the 787 line sold out for a while it's availability is probably roughly on par with the EIS of the 350, so there could also be additional need for more frames with the big airlines, as there are many of them in good shape, or recovery.
Some airlines should not rush into big growth right now, and if they already operate the 330 this is a good fleet addition.
The 350 might do some missions better, but that does not mean that the 330 is bad on those missions. It still is a good way to go.

The freighter IMO has a long life ahead, there are plenty A300 freighters, and also 757/67 ones that will need replacement at some point and the alternative, a 777F is a different kind of animal.

Even the 340 will see additional orders, no question there. The 330/340 line will be open for a while, mostly for the 330, but it's not over for a while.
Putana da Seatbeltz!
 
leelaw
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:04 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 18):
Or it may boil down to the fact that no lessor has enough A330-300s available to cover SQ's requiremen

Certainly not at the lease rates/terms that Airbus is likely offering to SQ. Generally, when the OEMs get involved in leasing new-build aircraft to customers, it means the transaction isn't commercially viable for third-party lessors.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
nudelhirsch
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:11 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 21):
Certainly not at the lease rates/terms that Airbus is likely offering to SQ. Generally, when the OEMs get involved in leasing new-build aircraft to customers, it means the transaction isn't commercially viable for third-party lessors.

Or more interesting for first and fourth hand parties...
Airbus cuts a deal, still makes profit, and after a certain period, SQ is either happy and orders a family-size pack of them, or Airbus either sells/leases them out to a fourth party. No need for a third party to minimize profit margins for all involved...
SQ is an airline with a very good reputation, their planes are taken care off, they still have quite a value on the 2nd hand market.
Even if Airbus does not make profit on that leasing deal, that's how sales work. In order to cut a good deal, sometimes you have to pour out some perks. The 380 add-on-order and the 350 order was a nice deal, airbus has many years left to make profit on the frames they lease out. No need for bashing there either. In the industry sales people do a lot to get the good accounts signed up...
Putana da Seatbeltz!
 
CV990
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:15 pm

Hi!

I see the A330 still with a bright future. I don't know how many where produced so far but taking the example of TP, they will have the A330-200 has transitional model to the awesome A350...the first 3 that we are using right now will stay until the last A350 arrives, so that will be at least by 2015, but the 5 new ones that will start to arrive next year will just stay until the first A350 come, by 2012 or latter, so these 5 band new ones will only stay for about 6 to 7 years, then there's still a 2nd. hand market for them! I think the A330-200 will eventually replace the A310/767 market for airlines that cannot afford to buy new airplanes.
Regards
CV990, the Maserati of the skies!
 
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PM
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:24 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
I don't know what their current market share on the type is, but if anybody knows, we could easily find out how many more engines GE could sell if the A330 would be re-certified with the GEnx engine and from that derive if they'd be willing to put their own money in this project.

The CF6 has always been the least popular engine on the A330. That may be one reason why GE are pushing the GEnx. GE have 25% of the A330, PW 28%, RR 40% and 7% is still undecided.

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 16):
That Airbus must act as the "lessor of last resort" for any A330-300 "interim lift" deals...

I don't know why you assume that Airbus are the "lessor of last resort" here. This is part of a large and complex deal between Airbus and SQ. And as for residual values, used A330s cannot be had for love nor money right now. They may be somewhat less attractive once 787s start appearing but my guess is they will still be in great demand.
 
A520
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:28 pm

Please forgive my ignorance here, but I have read somewhere that, should such new engine be certified, it could be retrofitted on existing A330. Is this possible? and viable from economics point of view?

Thanks to all
 
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PM
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:29 pm

Quoting CV990 (Reply 23):
I don't know how many where produced so far

188 A330-300s and 232 A330-200s = 420 A330s built and flown.
Four A330s have so far been written off.  Sad
 
astuteman
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 6:31 pm

Quoting A520 (Reply 25):
Please forgive my ignorance here, but I have read somewhere that, should such new engine be certified, it could be retrofitted on existing A330. Is this possible? and viable from economics point of view?

Nothing to forgive - one of the purposes of this thread is to debate possible answers to your question  Smile
Regards
 
slz396
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 7:06 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 16):
That Airbus must act as the "lessor of last resort" for any A330-300 "interim lift" deals indicates to me that there probably isn't much profit potential in such transactions, at least not for third-party lessors which means the longer-term residual value prospects aren't too rosey as well.

With a deal announced out of the blue, who says Airbus is the 'lessor of last resort'? Airbus has guaranteed SQ they would lease them the planes, if no other lessor wants to buy and lease them the planes.

Manufacturers both have leasing firms which are used to facilitate complex orders, yet they also both have relatively small fleets of planes, since they are known to dispose of them rather quickly in favour of 'real' lessors.
 
leelaw
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 7:12 pm

Quoting Nudelhirsch (Reply 22):

Who's "bashing?" There's no doubt Airbus is acting out of necessity, not choice in this scenario. In order to induce the critical sale of the A350X to SQ and credibly relaunch the A350 program, Airbus had to provide the interim lift in the form of a lease deal for A330s which is unlikely to produce a net positive cash flow for any lessor, including Airbus, in the long-term. Considering Airbus will have to invest roughly $1.1B to manufacture these aircraft, breakeven is probably the best case scenario for this and other similar nascent transactions, on a discounted cash-flow basis. This type of transaction is purely an accommodation to induce sales of another aircraft which has excellent long-term profit potential; to think otherwise seems fanciful indeed.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
leelaw
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 7:27 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 28):
With a deal announced out of the blue, who says Airbus is the 'lessor of last resort'? Airbus has guaranteed SQ they would lease them the planes, if no other lessor wants to buy and lease them the planes.

Manufacturers both have leasing firms which are used to facilitate complex orders, yet they also both have relatively small fleets of planes, since they are known to dispose of them rather quickly in favour of 'real' lessors.

Airbus may indeed be able to downstream this deal to a third-party lessor, but IMO it's unlikely to be a profitable transaction for Airbus.

This type of transaction is purely a loss-leader necessary to successfully relaunch the A350 program. The likelihood of making lemonade out of lemons in this setting seems remote indeed.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
slz396
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 9:55 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 30):
This type of transaction is purely a loss-leader necessary to successfully relaunch the A350 program.

I am looking forward to study in depth your financial analysis, based on a set of acceptable cost estimations on one side and estimated revenues for Airbus to offset them on the other, each with a few credible references from financial sources to support their estimation.

Since you apparently have concluded this huge work already, may I ask you not to keep the 'average' A.netter in suspension any longer and inform them right away on what the total loss on the transaction will be, so not everybody will need not dig through your detailed audit report which you will be so kind to link me to right now?
 
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PM
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:10 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 30):
The likelihood of making lemonade out of lemons in this setting seems remote indeed.

I'm still puzzling over this gnomic remark...  scratchchin 
 
CV990
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:21 pm

Hi PM!

I guess what Leelaw wanted to say is because USA uses more and more transgenic fruits it might be possible to make lemonades out of peaches or maybe apples!!!
Regards
CV990, the Maserati of the skies!
 
EI321
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:34 pm

Quoting TL925 (Reply 2):
The A330-300 has found a unique niche as a regional widebody (especially in Asia),

Its not exactly a niche, the 772A fills the same role with numerous asian carriers.

Every aircraft seems to be officialy a niche aircraft on a.net.
 
baroque
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 10:36 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 11):
I'd understood that the "new" engine was to cover the 85000lb - 95000lb range, i.e. the A350X-900 and A350X-1000.

If you believe the RR website, there is only one geometry for the 1000 and the 1700 and no mention of a "new" engine over and above the 1700. Perhaps all those agreements have not filtered through but the press release states the engine for the 350XWB is the sixth variant in the Trent series. If you count their listing the T1000 is #5 and T1700 is #6. So perhaps it is all one basic engine with the usual magic to cover the thrust range. There have been posts that suggested the Trent might have more latitude to go to the higher part of the range due to the three spool design. So perhaps that is the explanation.

A possible disadvantage of the Trent for the 330 might be that the smaller thrust versions could be heavier having been designed for higher max outputs compared with the GEnX.

Presumably, between the early 330 improvements and the 340E work, they might have some ideas that would go a bit further than only changing the engines. If they delved into their boxes of tricks, they could give the 330 a really new lease on life. That they are not obviously doing something to replace the A300 could suggest more ambitions for the A330??

I wonder what they DO use to make lemonade in IL. Are there many lemons that sell 575 to 645 quite expensive copies?
 
Lumberton
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:01 pm

Quoting Ma66 (Reply 4):
When you are talking about production and backlog I think you should add the 340 series, since they use the same production-line. This will increase the number of deliveries to about 85/year, and the backlog will be increased with 69 (48 without EK and AC).
(backlog is about 2,5 years for the 33x/34x production-line)

Good point.

Quoting Astuteman (Thread starter):
This month, however, IIRC, Airbus received commitments for 40 A330's and 30 A330F's, (i.e. another year's production). If confirmed, these will take total orders to 645 and backlog to 225



Quoting Astuteman (Thread starter):
meaning the current backlog is 2 years worth at current rate (70/year)

If one assumes that the backlog is indeed 294, taking into consideration the A340s, then is the production rate 70/yr or 85? Makes a big difference when it takes a potential customer to within a few years of being able to order "the latest and greatest" offering from either OEM. Does it pay to order A330s, when waiting for a few years one could have much more fuel efficient aircraft? There have been articles recently where Boeing is contemplating a ramp up of 787 production to 14+ per month.

Quoting CV990 (Reply 23):
see the A330 still with a bright future.

Unquestionably. However in the mid-term will it be as a tanker/freighter, or include the pax version as well?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
baroque
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:16 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 36):
Does it pay to order A330s, when waiting for a few years one could have much more fuel efficient aircraft? There have been articles recently where Boeing is contemplating a ramp up of 787 production to 14+ per month.

That would depend on what sort of a mouse trap Airbus was offering near the EIS of the new A/C. The 32x ethos might just rub off on Airbus, you never know.
 
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autothrust
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Tue Jul 25, 2006 11:58 pm

Quoting CV990 (Reply 33):
Hi PM!

I guess what Leelaw wanted to say is because USA uses more and more transgenic fruits it might be possible to make lemonades out of peaches or maybe apples!!!
Regards

ROFL  laughing   rotfl  Good one CV990 !!


Yes i think also the A330 has a bright future and if they get new engines it will be much more attractive.
The A330 is fantastic plane: beautiful and economic. I just see one problem if the Genx will be offered. This A330E could eat some A350 sales or other way round.
However very interesting Topic Astuteman  Smile
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:15 am

Quoting Astuteman (Thread starter):
GE is floating the idea of offering the GEnx to power future derivatives of the A330, including the -200F freighter, and tanker variants"

Tom Brisken, GEnx programme manager says " It offers significant advantages, and if 13% fuel burn means anything to customers, I'm sure there could be an interest".

Dr Kiran Rao, Airbus exec VP says "the GE offer could be of interest"...."it is our duty to look at it

Too bad GE, unlike RR, can't get launch aid.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
If GE is so keen on seeing their GEnx on the A330 (which looks like it has a big market ahead of it), maybe they'd be willing to cover some/most/all off the cost of the certification of the A330 with GEnx engines.

Ditto.

Quoting PM (Reply 32):
Quoting Leelaw (Reply 30):
The likelihood of making lemonade out of lemons in this setting seems remote indeed.

I'm still puzzling over this gnomic remark... scratchchin

It's an Americanism: if you are given something sour (lemons) you try to make something sweet (lemonade) out of it. In this case, Leelaw is saying he doesn't see how that is possible.
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leelaw
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:15 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 35):
I wonder what they DO use to make lemonade in IL

I assume the recipe is the same in Singapore as it is in Chicago, and it doesn't include investing in a fleet of 19 A330-300s circa 2009. I'd suggest that if providing its sister company with the requisite "interim lift" and then later downstreaming the aircraft to follow-on lessees and/or buyers made any kind of financial and/or commercial sense, SALE (Singapore Aircraft Leasing Enterprise) would jump on the deal, particularly if the aircraft were offered to them at attractive prices. However, SALE, as well as any other sensible lessor that I can think of, won't take the deal because they KNOW that once the 787s and A350s start entering the worldwide fleet in large numbers circa 2010-2015, the residual value of A330-300s will begin to decline precipitously and investors will be lucky to just breakeven. Such deals would really require an alchemist, not a juicemaker to be profitable.
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Lumberton
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:18 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 37):
That would depend on what sort of a mouse trap Airbus was offering near the EIS of the new A/C. The 32x ethos might just rub off on Airbus, you never know.

Are you referring to an "enhanced" version, similar to the planned A320 upgrade? If so, would Airbus want to "enhance" it to the point where it might cannibalize sales from the A350XWB?

If I missed your point, then subtlety is definitely lost on me! Big grin
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slz396
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:40 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 40):
Such deals would really require an alchemist, not a juicemaker to be profitable.

I don't know if I'd call it financial alchemy, but I think you'd be surprised to see how much positive cash flow Airbus can generate from this lease by considering only the production costs of the planes, excluding any amortisation of R/D investments, rather than the full list price (even including some price cuts) like you do.
 
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:44 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 42):
I think you'd be surprised to see how much positive cash flow Airbus can generate from this lease by considering only the production costs of the planes, excluding any amortisation of R/D investments

I'm sorry if this was discussed before, but is Airbus leasing the aircraft to SQ, not a leasing outfit?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:44 am

I was sort of amazed they've sold only around 600 A330s, for some reason I thought it was more than that. I guess the fact the A330 came out after the 767 may be a contributing factor, without the 1000 some odd 767s, I'm sure Airbus could have sold a ton more. Hopefully they'll keep selling the A330 for some years yet to come, it's a great plane, who knows, they may even sell 800+ before all is said and done.

Would they really want to offer the GEnx on A330 - that could make it something of a competitor to A350 - especially to airlines already opperating new A330 fleets. It would be like Boeing launching both a 772ER with the EA GP7200s under the wing and a 787-10 at the same time.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
Lumberton
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:47 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 44):
Would they really want to offer the GEnx on A330 - that could make it something of a competitor to A350 - especially to airlines already opperating new A330 fleets. It would be like Boeing launching both a 772ER with the EA GP7200s under the wing and a 787-10 at the same time.

Agreed. That was kind of the point I was trying to make below. You just did it better!

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 41):
Are you referring to an "enhanced" version, similar to the planned A320 upgrade? If so, would Airbus want to "enhance" it to the point where it might cannibalize sales from the A350XWB?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
baroque
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:50 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 41):
Are you referring to an "enhanced" version, similar to the planned A320 upgrade? If so, would Airbus want to "enhance" it to the point where it might cannibalize sales from the A350XWB?

Yes and no, in that order. They could do an E version, but presumably might think that would not be attractive enough to cannibalize XWB sales. After all, they were told that the early manifestations of the 350 were good but not good enough, whereas the XWB is supposed to be good enough. They have the A330 line, they have quite a few orders and potential for more as Astuteman suggests. And an "E" might not be as much of a lemon by the EISs as Leelaw thinks the current one will be by. There may be a path between leaving the 330 unchanged and major alterations that would be profitable and attract a few more sales.

Revelation, the question on GE and RLI has been answered a few times already. Briefly, it is available where the project will be undertaken in the program country.

[Edited 2006-07-25 17:51:01]
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Wed Jul 26, 2006 12:54 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 3):
Even if it means keeping the gas guzzling, pollution making, KC135 flying for 34 more years...

Perhaps, in 2040, they will transfer them to Cuba!

Gees, i'll be 78 years old, when they finally retire the KC135 !

Gas guzzling, pollution making KC-135? Which model is that? The KC-135R burns about 7500lbs of fuel per hour, in cruise, about 25%-28% less than the KC-135A. That is about 1/3 of what the KC-10A burns. Even the proposed KC-30A or KC-767A cannot reach that level of fuel burn. The F-108 engines (CFM-56-B2) produce some of the lowest Nox levels of any jet engine. The noise footprint of a KC-135R is 95% smaller than the KC-135A, for both approaches and take-offs.

Transfer them to Cuba in 2040? Perhaps, after Cuba becomes the 51st state, LOL, then the CUANG can fly them, LOL.  Wink

My Canadian friend, if you were in the US, and were 78 years old, the KC-135 will be helping to pay your social security.  bigthumbsup 
 
zvezda
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Wed Jul 26, 2006 1:04 am

A reengine programme for the A330 makes a lot of sense to me. Boeing don't have anything that competes closely with the A330F and I think any B787F will be far in the future. Also, airlines that already operate the A330 might find that buying additional A330Es might make more sense than buying A350s or B787s. The A330 is a great airliner and I think this makes far more sense than the A340E idea that Airbus floated earlier this year.
 
flydreamliner
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RE: The Future Of The A330

Wed Jul 26, 2006 1:40 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 48):
A reengine programme for the A330 makes a lot of sense to me. Boeing don't have anything that competes closely with the A330F and I think any B787F will be far in the future. Also, airlines that already operate the A330 might find that buying additional A330Es might make more sense than buying A350s or B787s. The A330 is a great airliner and I think this makes far more sense than the A340E idea that Airbus floated earlier this year.

If Airbus were smart, instead of lengthening and enhancing the A340 for long range, the -500 and -600, they would have done it to the A330, and we'd not be seeing the runaway sales victory of 777. I think an A330E is a liability, in that if it sells enough to recoup development, it is probably selling well enough that it's taking order away from A350.
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