leelaw
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Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:10 am

...Boeing 747 sales, marketing and in-service support vice-president Randy Tinseth says rough calculations indicate that with a 5.6m (18.3ft) stretch, as opposed to the initially planned 3.6m fuselage extension, the aircraft could accommodate "around 10 extra business class or 30-34 additional economy seats and still get 8,000nm". Together with the provision for the upper lobe galley, which frees up an extra 12 seats on the main deck, this would potentially raise maximum seating capacity under Boeing tri-class rules to around 496, compared with the originally envisaged 450...

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...7-8+Intercontinental+capacity.html

Has a 496 seat capacity without compromising range been discussed before?

[Edited 2006-07-26 22:13:21]
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deltadc9
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:13 am

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
496

That is a very interesting number considering the numbers quoted for most of the 380s.
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ikramerica
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:13 am

Another article states that Boeing says 15 carriers like it as is, a few want more capacity, and a few want more range, so while the extension is feasible, they aren't positive what they will do.

Something tells me that it will take a large launch order from one of the ones who want more capacity for Boeing to do the further stretch. Otherwise, it'll stay as is and they'll instead look at getting 8500nm out of it...
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ikramerica
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:18 am

Quoting DeltaDC9 (Reply 1):
That is a very interesting number considering the numbers quoted for most of the 380s.

That's not a real 496 though. But it would be a real 450 depending on configuration.
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Stitch
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 5:56 am

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Has a 496 seat capacity without compromising range been discussed before?

Yes, mainly by moving galley and lavatory spaces up into the crown.
 
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 6:53 am

I'm counting the minutes until Keesje again decries the floor space deficiency of the 748-I compared to the A380. And I again reiterate that the 748-I ISN'T a direct competitor to the A380, although a viable alternative for some carriers. Improving CASM with a further small stretch may help generate some sales for this passenger variant, although the freighter alone could keep the program afloat; I expect sales of the 748-F to be quite robust. I don't expect 747-8I sales to approach the A388 but it should do reasonably well and would be gravy on top of the freighter's sure to be solid numbers. I think it was both arrogant and foolish for Airbus and others to earlier completely write off the 747 as obsolete; there's still a place for this improved model in the market. And given its much lighter weight and new-gen engines, it has a chance of giving the A380 a fair run for its money in operating economics. Though some are slamming it for having no pax-model orders (except for a sole VIP sale), it's still early and we know carriers are looking at the 'I'. There's a reasonable opportunity for some solid, though not gangbuster sales for that version.
 
A5XX
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:00 am

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Has a 496 seat capacity without compromising range been discussed before?

So.. According to Boeing, there's no market for VLA...   

Then again, why would they feel the need to come up with a 500 pax airplane?

Poor reading of the market, or bruised ego?  stirthepot 

Yves.

[Edited 2006-07-27 00:03:26]
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BCAInfoSys
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:14 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 6):
So.. According to Boeing, there's no market for VLA...

Then again, why would they feel the need to come up with a 500 pax airplane?

Poor reading of the market, or bruised ego?

Or perhaps a very clever tactic. Let Airbus risk the big bucks to expose whether a particular market segment is viable. Then follow up with a relatively-inexpensive derivative of the 747 which will perhaps steal a few A380 orders with very little potential risk to Boeing.

Even if it never sells in huge numbers, given the relatively low-cost for developing this new member of the 747 family, Boeing has found another winner.

My  twocents .
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A5XX
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:20 am

Quoting BCAInfoSys (Reply 7):
Even if it never sells in huge numbers, given the relatively low-cost for developing this new member of the 747 family, Boeing has found another winner.

Then Boeing could buy back all the B744 currently stored in the desert, retrofit them to B748 specs..... They sure could save a lot of time...

Yves.
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swissy
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:27 am

Quoting BCAInfoSys (Reply 7):
Even if it never sells in huge numbers, given the relatively low-cost for developing this new member of the 747 family, Boeing has found another winner.

We have to wait and see what the actual amount would be.....

Quoting A5XX (Reply 6):
Poor reading of the market, or bruised ego?

Perhaps try to protect their VLA market, remember we have no real data available in regard of the performance of the 380 and it is extremely quite around these numbers, what if they are even better than expected????

Maybe B will end up just like AB with the "350" and would have to spend a lot
more bling bling than they thought they would have to.............

Cheers,
 
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:29 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 6):

I am sure that someone else will reiterate/confirm this but I believe Boeing said that there was not sufficient market for two "new design" VLA's. They are taking the "cheap" route and carving off some of the A380's (-800) market. Good competitve move I think.

Now when the -900 comes out THAT will be a whole different story.

Tug
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:30 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 6):
Poor reading of the market, or bruised ego?

Boeing never believed two all-new 500+seat planes would ever generate a positive return on the investment at a program level. Considering "conventional wisdom" states Airbus has to triple their current A380 orders before they do so (again, at a program level - not a per frame level), even if Boeing had nailed their VLA perfectly, that would still require 250 or so orders. Add that to the 450 Airbus needs and you're now at 700 frames. That's a lot of lift...

But Boeing never "misread" the market, as they did launch three variants to try and address it on the lower end - the 747-600, 747-X, and 747-8. The first was too expensive (no A380 at the time), the second was too ineffecient compared to the A3XX, and the jury is still out on the third.
 
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:35 am

what is the total development cost for the 748 programme?
 
ikramerica
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:40 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
Boeing never believed two all-new 500+seat planes would ever generate a positive return on the investment at a program level.

And all these people who put forth the "boeing said there was no market" LIE are also ignoring something else.

Airbus really screwed up the A380F, and Boeing saw this open door and decided to walk through. The 748I is as much a "well, we are doing the F anyway, so offering a pax version is an incremental cost" than a true response to overwhelming demand at this time.

After all, if there were overwhelming demand, the 748I would have some orders already, and the 380 would be selling more robustly.
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A5XX
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:44 am

Quoting Tugger (Reply 10):
They are taking the "cheap" route and carving off some of the A380's (-800) market.



So Boeing will improve the "soup of the day"  (Now tastes better)

Do you mean to suggest potential B748 buyers, will end up buying a 69' Chevelle, with leather seats, and a fuel injected 396 engine? (just kidding here, since I really LOVE those 396 Chevy's with Mickey Thompson slicks!!!   )

Cheers!

Yves.

[Edited 2006-07-27 00:57:33]
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:50 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 13):
Airbus really screwed up the A380F

Im what way?
 
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 7:55 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 13):
Airbus really screwed up the A380F...

I believe the jury is still out on this one, as well. World cargo traffic patterns are based at least in part on a 747's stage length at max payload. The A380F can carry more payload farther, or the same amount of payload a good deal farther. So the A380F could open new, more direct cargo routes.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 13):
Boeing saw this open door and decided to walk through.

On this point, I do agree. The GEnx engines and other technologies adapted from the 787 program result in a lighter (per unit of structure) and more efficient airframe, which makes it a more efficient cargo-hauler then the 744F, which itself was still selling well even in the face of the A380F.

So I do believe that when Boeing did the Cost-Benefit analysis, they decided that the 747-8F would return a positive program ROI so it was worth launching. The 748I then rode it's coat-tails since until one is actually ordered*, the development costs are quite low.

* - And since the first one ordered is a ViP, I wonder if Boeing could use the 747-8F as the structure (should no other 748I orders materialize) and not have to spend the cash formally developing and certifying the 748I.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:07 am

The 380F MIGHT be able to expand "point to point" routes, but being so large, those must be pretty dynamic points. The 777F also attempts this same feat, but being a smaller jet, makes more sense for some of these routes. P2P with the largest jet on the market is a small niche.

Otherwise, because the cargo system is based on the range of the 747 and MD11 type heavy freighters, there is huge infrastructure in place that won't be abandoned or moved based on the increased range of a limited number of A380s.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 15):
Im what way?

Because it is wasteful for anything but package freight, carrying so much dead weight around. And cargo carriers so far are not that excited by it outside of UPS and FedEx. I think once Boeing saw that the 380F wasn't selling, and that UPS was buying 744Fs as well, they saw an opening that made the launch a reality rather than a red herring to drive the price of the 380 down.

The weak link of the 380 is cargo, both in the F version and the Pax version. The 748 has advantages there in both versions, as do planes like the 787 and 350. Once you put pax bags into a 388, there's little room for revenue cargo nor available TOW for it anyway.
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A5XX
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:18 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
The weak link of the 380 is cargo, both in the F version and the Pax version. The 748 has advantages there in both versions, as do planes like the 787 and 350. Once you put pax bags into a 388, there's little room for revenue cargo nor available TOW for it anyway.

What about the B748 wings? 500 pax+ luggage + freight..... Much more than the A380... OK   Of course, the B748 wings have unlimited lift?   

Yves.

[Edited 2006-07-27 01:24:19]
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:25 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 18):

Uneducated comment:
If it flies, it has enough lift.

Tug
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A5XX
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:29 am

Quoting Tugger (Reply 19):
Uneducated comment:
If it flies, it has enough lift.

Read my comments again, and then think about it for a few seconds. Perhaps you'll understand.

Yves.
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:48 am

[quote=A5XX,reply=20]
I am guessing you are speaking about the TOW but based on the comment he was referring to the fact the the A380 is maxing out it's TOW. Which for the 380 I think has more to do with the engines than the wings.

Then again I may be speaking out of my backside.

Tug
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AvObserver
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 8:49 am

Relax, Yves (A5XX), we're not saying the 747-8 is better overall than the A380, just that it has specific advantages in some areas that will make it a reasonable competitor, despite the age of the basic design.

Quoting Swissy (Reply 9):
Maybe B will end up just like AB with the "350" and would have to spend a lot
more bling bling than they thought they would have to.............

It's not the same situation; the much smaller size of the VLA market that Boeing projects doesn't warrant it to spend nearly the amount it and Airbus are investing in mid-size jets. Since Airbus already has a lock on the bulk of this market, another all-new VLA would be sheer folly at this time.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 12):
what is the total development cost for the 748 programme?

I've yet to read a firm figure on this but I'd be surprised if it's too much over $4 billion. That was about what the more ambitious 747X of 6 years ago was supposed to cost. Even allowing for 5+ years inflation, the 747-8 is not radically changed from the 747-400ER, aside from its heavily modified wings and GEnx engines mostly ported over from the 787. Aside from the stretch, there aren't major fuselage changes. Its development cost is a song compared to the A380 because most of the airplane is already done.
 
A5XX
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:07 am

Quoting Tugger (Reply 21):
am guessing you are speaking about the TOW but based on the comment he was referring to the fact the the A380 is maxing out it's TOW. Which for the 380 I think has more to do with the engines than the wings.

The current A380 wing was developped for all the A380 variants.... The A388 being the smallest of all the A380 variants.

Of course, you can stretch the 747 design, as much as you want, but unless you put MUCH more powerful engines on the B748, (Compared to what the B744 currently has), with it's current wing, i just can't see how the B748 can beat the A380 wing design. If you need more power, to take off, and stay aloft, it means more fuel will be consumed.... The F-104 had no wings too (sort of)

If they need to put new wings on the B748, it means that Boeing will have to go through certification again, since this would be basically a new aircraft.

No market for VLA? Right..

Yves.
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:15 am

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Has a 496 seat capacity without compromising range been discussed before?

lol

 biggrin 

Where's the Z-Man "Zvezda", when you need 'em .

This is intriguing & a smart move on Boeing's part .

Take your time Boeing !

Halibut
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:17 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 23):
No market for VLA? Right..

You do realize you going to get **whacked** for that don't you.

Yes, I understand that the wing is designed/rated for all variants (What about the wing? I don't want to start it but what was the wing being tested to? The "max" variant or the -800?).
Also doesn't the -8I have a new wing or at least profile.

Tug

Edited to say: Got it Kaitak744, thanks!

[Edited 2006-07-27 02:20:14]
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A5XX
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:21 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 24):
And Boeing won't build a plane with a small wing. They learned that lesson the hard way (767-400, 757-300).

Right. My point was that the current B74X wing design is limited. Boeing will not be able to stretch the B74X ad infinitum, hence the A380 advantage, in the long run. Earth's population is increasing, not decreasing....

Yves.
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boeingbus
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:21 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 23):
No market for VLA? Right..

Dude, shut up! such thoughtless and pathetic statements. Boeing never said there was no market.... Of course there is as Airbus sold 139 copies.

Boeing said that there wouldn't be enough demand in the market for two in the 550+ sized jets. and I whole heartedly agree with there position and I am sure Airbus is happy for it.

Boeing is right to continue with the 747 derivatives as this is a niche market. The bigger chunk of the pie are the single aisle jets and medium sized long haul.

Boeing is in a much better position to have a void in the 550 plus market than the Airbus's void in the 200-250.
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kaitak744
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:26 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 18):
What about the B748 wings? 500 pax+ luggage + freight..... Much more than the A380... OK Of course, the B748 wings have unlimited lift?



Quoting Tugger (Reply 19):
Uneducated comment:
If it flies, it has enough lift.

Yo, give him a break.

Boeing is using the structure of the 747-400 wing, but they are redesigning the leading and trailing edges (more efficient lift). Also, they are installing 777 style flaps (2-1 slotted). In addition to all of that, the wing is getting bigger. They are adding blended raked 787-style wingtips. These will add fuel efficiency and produce some extra lift.

And Boeing won't build a plane with a small wing. They learned that lesson the hard way (767-400, 757-300).
 
brendows
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:31 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 28):
Right. My point was that the current B74X wing design is limited. Boeing will not be able to stretch the B74X ad infinitum, hence the A380 advantage, in the long run. Earth's population is increasing, not decreasing....

But have Boeing talked about stretching the 747 further than what's the case with the 748F, no.

Quoting A5XX (Reply 23):
(Compared to what the B744 currently has), with it's current wing, i just can't see how the B748 can beat the A380 wing design.

Why not? The 744 wing is a highly effective wing, and they are now modifying the wing profile, and as said earlier, the leading and trailing edges, and are adding raked wingtips. Boeing knows how to build wings, they are brilliant at it, and I wouldn't be too sure about the A380 wing being much better than the wing of the 748.
 
A5XX
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:33 am

Quoting AvObserver (Reply 22):
Relax, Yves (A5XX), we're not saying the 747-8 is better overall than the A380, just that it has specific advantages in some areas that will make it a reasonable competitor, despite the age of the basic design.

I agree. The B748 will be a potent competitor. But in the way I see it, right now, it's like you are comparing the B747SP pax and cargo capabilities, against the current B744 (both have the same basic wing design, but no winglets on the SP version, of course ). The A380 design has room to grow.... The B748 has no room to grow, unless it becomes a new airplanes.  Wink

Yves.
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Stitch
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:35 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 18):
What about the B748 wings? 500 pax+ luggage + freight..... Much more than the A380... OK Of course, the B748 wings have unlimited lift?

Insufficient lift is not why an A380 can't carry as much cargo as a 744 or 748 can. It's because the A380's lower cargo holds are physically smaller in total space then those found on the 747 (or 777, or 787, or A350). The A380's lower hold has just about enough space to hold ~500 suitcases and that's it. The other planes can hold the number of suitcases their lower passenger counts call for, plus have plenty of extra space leftover for other things.
 
kaitak744
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:46 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 28):
Right. My point was that the current B74X wing design is limited. Boeing will not be able to stretch the B74X ad infinitum, hence the A380 advantage, in the long run. Earth's population is increasing, not decreasing....

Yves.

And Airbus won't be able to "stretch the A380 ad infinitum." Stretching an aircraft takes more than just wing. You need, especially in the A380's case, taller landing gear for takeoff rotation. Also, you would need a gate capable of handle something like 1.5 times the length of the A340-600. Quite frankly, I think the A380-900 will never happen.

And by the time the 747-8 is out dated, or airlines want even more capacity, these kind of planes will likely not be around. The future lies in the hands of high-speed, light, non-oil consuming aircraft. Not 40 year old designs. This is the last time Boeing will be doing anything to the 747. Its almost a guarantee.
 
A5XX
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:47 am

Quoting Brendows (Reply 31):
Why not? The 744 wing is a highly effective wing, and they are now modifying the wing profile, and as said earlier, the leading and trailing edges, and are adding raked wingtips. Boeing knows how to build wings, they are brilliant at it, and I wouldn't be too sure about the A380 wing being much better than the wing of the 748.

So you think the 1000's of Airbus engineers, who studied their shit at the same schools Boeing engineers did, don't know how to design an efficient wing, or understand the basic laws of aerodynamics? Come on! They know about trailing edge and raked wingtips too, man....

Well, maybe they did not think about it, after all!  Wink

Interesting comment though...  Wink

Just put 100 more pax + luggage + cargo on the B748, and see how the B748 wing is really efficient, and then we'll talk.

Yves.
we are the boeing... resistance is futile...You will be assimilated
 
kaitak744
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 9:51 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):
Insufficient lift is not why an A380 can't carry as much cargo as a 744 or 748 can. It's because the A380's lower cargo holds are physically smaller in total space then those found on the 747 (or 777, or 787, or A350). The A380's lower hold has just about enough space to hold ~500 suitcases and that's it. The other planes can hold the number of suitcases their lower passenger counts call for, plus have plenty of extra space leftover for other things.

Ha, I totally agree. I have been trying to convince some people here on A.net that Airbus's claim that the A380 carries more cargo than the 747 is false. You totaly hit it there.

 Smile.
 
A5XX
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 10:00 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 36):
Ha, I totally agree. I have been trying to convince some people here on A.net that Airbus's claim that the A380 carries more cargo than the 747 is false. You totaly hit it there.

The A380 has not yet flown commercially, yet most of the Boeing cheerleaders know how many suit cases can be fitted in the A380 cargo hold...

Is it a Boeing propaganda, or the real truth? Only time will tell.

Where are the 748 orders?

Yves.

[Edited 2006-07-27 03:03:19]
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khobar
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 10:02 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 14):
Do you mean to suggest potential B748 buyers, will end up buying a 69' Chevelle, with leather seats, and a fuel injected 396 engine? (just kidding here, since I really LOVE those 396 Chevy's with Mickey Thompson slicks!!! )

Would you care to venture a guess as to how much such a car costs on the market currently, in like-new/reconditioned condition? Talk about irony...

Quoting A5XX (Reply 32):
The A380 design has room to grow.... The B748 has no room to grow, unless it becomes a new airplanes.

The 748 is not meant to grow, so what's your point?

Quoting A5XX (Reply 35):
So you think the 1000's of Airbus engineers, who studied their shit at the same schools Boeing engineers did, don't know how to design an efficient wing, or understand the basic laws of aerodynamics? Come on! They know about trailing edge and raked wingtips too, man....

Wow...
 
A5XX
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 10:17 am

Quoting Khobar (Reply 38):
Would you care to venture a guess as to how much such a car costs on the market currently, in like-new/reconditioned condition? Talk about irony...

I know! I could tell you, but then i'd have to kill you, cause it's classified.
  

Why do you think i used this particular example?

No leather seats, though. No fuel injection either... just a good old Rochester carburetor.   

Quoting Khobar (Reply 38):

Wow

Yup! 

Yves.

[Edited 2006-07-27 03:30:16]
we are the boeing... resistance is futile...You will be assimilated
 
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zeke
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 10:24 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 36):
Ha, I totally agree. I have been trying to convince some people here on A.net that Airbus's claim that the A380 carries more cargo than the 747 is false. You totaly hit it there.

I was of the understanding that the current production 747-400ER has a cargo capacity of between 140-160 m^3, less than that of a A330-300 or the A380. What will this proposed redesigned 747-800qerfmctsx have in terms of cargo capacity ?

If I recall correctly the A380 has a total capacity of about 190 m^3.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
zoom1018
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 10:51 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 6):
So.. According to Boeing, there's no market for VLA...   

Then again, why would they feel the need to come up with a 500 pax airplane?

Poor reading of the market, or bruised ego?

I am sorry, but Boeing has never stated that there is no market for VLA!
Please do check the information before criticising!
 
jacobin777
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 11:53 am

Quoting A5XX (Reply 23):

Of course, you can stretch the 747 design, as much as you want, but unless you put MUCH more powerful engines on the B748, (Compared to what the B744 currently has), with it's current wing, i just can't see how the B748 can beat the A380 wing design. If you need more power, to take off, and stay aloft, it means more fuel will be consumed.... The F-104 had no wings too (sort of)

the GeNX engines will basically be the final engines for the 748....there isn't the added cost.....Boeing admits to Airbus having a better wing design...its 30 years younger.... Wink

the point is, for $4 billion, Boeing is making a very competitive frame....and not only will it steal some shares from the A380 program, but it will make money for Boeing as 1)the cost of part of it is taken from the 787 program, 2)the 747 program has been a cash cow for 3-4 decades, 3) Boeing and GE have forecasted around 300-350 frames..which will be more than enough to recoup the money 4)adds pressure to Airbus margins, as Airbus will have to offer a larger discount for their A380's.....

Quoting A5XX (Reply 23):

No market for VLA? Right..

Who said that?

Quoting A5XX (Reply 28):
Right. My point was that the current B74X wing design is limited. Boeing will not be able to stretch the B74X ad infinitum, hence the A380 advantage, in the long run. Earth's population is increasing, not decreasing....

who said the 747 is going to stretch more? Basically even Boeing has said this will be the end of the line for the 747 series.....

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 29):

Dude, shut up! such thoughtless and pathetic statements. Boeing never said there was no market.... Of course there is as Airbus sold 139 copies.

Boeing said that there wouldn't be enough demand in the market for two in the 550+ sized jets. and I whole heartedly agree with there position and I am sure Airbus is happy for it.

 rotfl ... checkmark ....why should Boeing have spent $14-$15 billion for a project which they don't believe they will get a return on???

Boeing put their time, effort, energy, and money into the 787..and it has paid off BIG TIME..its Boeing's fastest selling widebody ever!! The plane might even break even before EIS...that's simply amazing!!!!

Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):

Insufficient lift is not why an A380 can't carry as much cargo as a 744 or 748 can. It's because the A380's lower cargo holds are physically smaller in total space then those found on the 747 (or 777, or 787, or A350). The A380's lower hold has just about enough space to hold ~500 suitcases and that's it. The other planes can hold the number of suitcases their lower passenger counts call for, plus have plenty of extra space leftover for other things.

 checkmark ..

He can believe the world is flat or the moon is made from blue cheese.. biggrin ....but that doesn't change the fact...

"What is attracting Emirates is the dash 10's seat-mile costs and fuel burn, both of which will be lower than the A380's. It also will have 80% more revenue cargo space than the A380, according to sources at Emirates"**

ATWonline.com

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 34):

And by the time the 747-8 is out dated, or airlines want even more capacity, these kind of planes will likely not be around. The future lies in the hands of high-speed, light, non-oil consuming aircraft. Not 40 year old designs. This is the last time Boeing will be doing anything to the 747. Its almost a guarantee.

 checkmark 

Quoting A5XX (Reply 35):
So you think the 1000's of Airbus engineers, who studied their shit at the same schools Boeing engineers did, don't know how to design an efficient wing, or understand the basic laws of aerodynamics? Come on! They know about trailing edge and raked wingtips too, man....

Boeing and Airbus have different design philosophies....
"Up the Irons!"
 
F14ATomcat
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 12:32 pm

Quoting A5XX (Reply 23):
The current A380 wing was developped for all the A380 variants.... The A388 being the smallest of all the A380 variants.

Kind of makes you wonder why they couldn't get the required 150% of max design load. Maybe the -900 is design to carry 800 pygmies in luxurious comfort. With the reduction in weight they can be made to fill right at home with a mock-up village, mechanical monkeys and a bowling alley. So less is more!
 
khobar
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 12:34 pm

Quoting A5XX (Reply 39):
Why do you think i used this particular example?

You did include a smiley and made clear that those particular remarks were not to be taken seriously, and I didn't see the forest for the trees. Oh well, cheers!
 
aeroplan73
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 12:48 pm

Quoting A5XX (Reply 8):
Then Boeing could buy back all the B744 currently stored in the desert, retrofit them to B748 specs..... They sure could save a lot of time...

I don't know much about the 748, other than the engine cowlings look like shark teeth.

What exactly are they doing that makes it so different from a 744? New engines and adding some spacers is all I'm aware of, but it must be more than that.  Yeah sure
I remember, the choices were chicken or fish. I had the lasagna.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:13 pm

Quoting A5XX (Reply 8):
Then Boeing could buy back all the B744 currently stored in the desert, retrofit them to B748 specs..... They sure could save a lot of time...

That's like saying any airline could by a 737-300 or A300 from the desert and upgrade them into new 737NG or an A330. It's not possible.

Quoting A5XX (Reply 23):
(Compared to what the B744 currently has), with it's current wing, i just can't see how the B748 can beat the A380 wing design

You've said the answer yourself:

"The current A380 wing was developped for all the A380 variants.... The A388 being the smallest of all the A380 variants."

Airbus is building a wing for heavier variants to come at a later date; they didn't optimize the wing for the A380-800. That means virtually all structural members of the A388 are heavier than necessary to facilitate a stretch in the future. It's a compromise

In fact, the A388 wing is also a compromise of many logistical factors including span limitations (to fit into airport gates), and wake turbulence vorticies (to prevent distruptions to air traffic). This prevents the A388 wing from being entirely optimized in terms of the most cutting-edge aerodynamics.

That gives Boeing room to maneuver with the 747-8

Quoting A5XX (Reply 32):
The A380 design has room to grow....

Which makes the A380-800 less than optimal

Quoting A5XX (Reply 32):
The B748 has no room to grow, unless it becomes a new airplanes.

Which makes the 747-8 closer to its maximum structural efficency. All the trade studies leading to the 747-Advanced program showed that the 747 structure would inherently gain a great deal of efficency by a modest 3-4 meter stretch.

Now, we're talking only an additional meter beyond that point. That would hardly classify as maxing out the wing loading of the aircraft.

Quoting A5XX (Reply 37):
Where are the 748 orders?

Boeing has sold 29 747-8:

Cargolux - 10 747-8F
Al Nippon - 8 747-8F
Qatar - 1 747-8I
Emirates - 10 747-8F* (pending)

That's in addition to 38 747-400 sold in the last twelve months. Airbus has managed to sign only one firm customer and one commitment for the A388 in the same time period. What do you make of that?

Boeing won't firm the specifications for the passenger -8I variant until September 2006 at the earliest. How do you expect Boeing to sell and customers to buy an aircraft that isn't close to being firmed? The whole point of this thread is that the 748I is in flux.

Quoting A5XX (Reply 39):
No leather seats, though. No fuel injection either... just a good old Rochester carburetor.

A5XX : Analogies

George W. Bush : Pronunciation  banghead 
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1767
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:24 pm

Quoting AvObserver (Reply 5):
I'm counting the minutes until Keesje again decries the floor space deficiency of the 748-I compared to the A380.

Hey, I'm not Keesje, but please allow me to cut in... Big grin

To do an apples-to-apples comparison you need the same class mix (percentages) and the same seat pitches. Let's take the brochure B748 at 496 seats, which uses 82"F/40"J/32"Y seat pitch, and cook up the equivalent A388. Duly note that the A388 brochure uses 70"F/48"J/32"Y seat pitch.

1) remove two rows of Y on main deck, add 1 row of F
2) add 3 rows of J on upper deck by going from 48"J to 40"J
3) remove 2 rows of J, add 3 rows of Y on upper deck

Now we're at roughly the same seat pitch and class breakdown, yielding an A388 seating 28F/102J/441Y, or 571 total seats.

Ergo, the A388 can be said to accommodate 15% more seats than the B748 @ 496 seats. And all this without a single reference to floor area Big grin

Quoting A5XX (Reply 6):
So.. According to Boeing, there's no market for VLA...

Please refer to Boeing's Current Market Overview before stirring the pot too vigorously.

Over the next 20 years, Boeing sees a market for 990 VLA's (> 400 seats) broken down as follows:

325 between 400 and 500 seats (where the B748I is positioned)
325 above 500 seats (where the A380 is positioned)
Where the rest come from is anyone's guess... perhaps they meant 325 B747's, 325 A380's, and 340 of something else entirely (Y3) ? Or > 600 seat A389's?  Smile

There's no doubt that there is a market... the contention is over how big it is. Interestingly, the recent trend in Boeing's forecast is upwards: it rose from 900 to 990 after launch of the B748I.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
Because [the A388F] is wasteful for anything but package freight, carrying so much dead weight around.

It is wasteful when it is abused on segments much shorter than its maximum payload range. Any freighter is wasteful when flown at much less than its max payload range, not just the A388F. Any freighter thus abused can make a profit by carrying high margin cargo, not just the A388F.

When used properly, the A388F is only slightly overweight (36% more payload for 42% more OEW)

Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):
The A380's lower hold has just about enough space to hold ~500 suitcases and that's it.

Are you sure about that? The lower hold has room for 36 LD-3 containers. I'm not sure, but that sounds like somewhat more bags than 500 passenger's worth (incidentally, is there a standard for how many passengers' bags can fit in an LD-3?)

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 34):
And Airbus won't be able to "stretch the A380 ad infinitum." Stretching an aircraft takes more than just wing. You need, especially in the A380's case, taller landing gear for takeoff rotation. Also, you would need a gate capable of handle something like 1.5 times the length of the A340-600. Quite frankly, I think the A380-900 will never happen.

I think you're wrong on most counts above. The A380 was designed to be stretched from the very beginning. The A389 stretch will be a mere 6.4 meters, and the plane will still fit within an 80 x 80 m box at the gate. It will be just a shade longer than the A346. The landing gear is already sized for it. Most big-ticket development items for the A389 will come for "free" from other programs: new engines from the A350X, and stronger wing, landing gear and center wingbox fuel tank from the A388F. Unless the VLA market is a total dud, I think you can very much count on the A389 happening...

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 42):
the point is, for $4 billion, Boeing is making a very competitive frame

 checkmark 
 
flydreamliner
Posts: 1928
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:33 pm

Quoting A5XX (Reply 6):
Poor reading of the market, or bruised ego?

Maybe a little of both, I think the biggest thing is that in surveying their potential customers, Boeing is finding out what their buyers want is a little different than what they originally thought, and the success of A380 may have something to do with that.

Quoting A5XX (Reply 23):
If they need to put new wings on the B748, it means that Boeing will have to go through certification again, since this would be basically a new aircraft.

They don't need new wings, the old wings had a large lift surplus, and they are incorporating almost all of the lessons learned on the 777 and 787 wings, plus the newer, more powerful, more efficient GEnx engines.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 24):
And Boeing won't build a plane with a small wing. They learned that lesson the hard way (767-400, 757-300)

No kidding - 753 was a mistake in that regard. I saw one take off the other day at MSP, it had a longer take off roll than the DC-10 that took off a few spots before it....even if it was 90 degrees out, that's pathetic.

Quoting BoeingBus (Reply 29):
Boeing is in a much better position to have a void in the 550 plus market than the Airbus's void in the 200-250.

Amen. Even if Boeing miscalculated the VLA aircraft market they are talking a miscalculation from 10s to a few hundred. Airbus may have miscalculated 200-275 by hundreds to a thousand.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
cloudy
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:43 pm

The A380's "expandability" will not mean much because by the time a significant market develops for the A380-900, Boeing will have built Y3. Y3 is a clean sheet family of planes that range in size from 747 to A380-900, and uses all the 787 goodies. Y3 and anything all-new Airbus comes up with to compete with it will far surpass the A380 and any 747 version.

This is the true problem with the A380. It is the last plane built with yesterday's technology. That is true of every plane to some extent, but it applies much more when major advances occur. 787 tech is changing everything.
 
PolymerPlane
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:46 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 47):
Now we're at roughly the same seat pitch and class breakdown, yielding an A388 seating 28F/102J/441Y, or 571 total seats.

but A388 cannot fly 8000NM with 571. I think that's why Airbus only quotes the typical pax payload at 555, for the range trade-off. Usually Airbus likes to inflate the pax count for their aircraft, while that is not the case for A388.

Cheers,
PP
One day there will be 100% polymer plane
 
zvezda
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RE: Shifting 748I Capacity Closer To Rival A380

Thu Jul 27, 2006 1:48 pm

Quoting A5XX (Reply 6):
According to Boeing, there's no market for VLA...

Boeing never said that.

Quoting A5XX (Reply 23):
The A388 being the smallest of all the A380 variants.

It may also be the largest WhaleJet variant. BTW, a smaller WhaleJet was once envisioned, but Airbus have realized that its structural efficiency would be too poor to sell against the B747-400ER.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 47):
the A388 can be said to accommodate 15% more seats than the B748 @ 496 seats.

Yes, good analysis. However, the WhaleJet weighs about 37% more (OEW). Carrying 37% more dead weight in order to carry 15% more passengers is not a good strategy for increasing profits -- especially with oil above $20/bbl.