Motorhussy
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Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:34 pm

Just for the hell of it and to see what you all think, should Airbus revise the composition of the existing A330/40 airframe (new fandangled composites etc), put on some new wings and go head to head with the 787-3 & 8?

Yes it would not be as wide as the 787's body, but it's generally accepted that most carriers, unless long-haul, are going nine-abreast with the new Boeing, so the eight-abreast Airbus should be more comfortable on certain routes.

At the short-range end, there's a need for a continental/regional jet replacement (going back as far as the A300) and of course one for the 763, 764 and A332 at the long-range end.

In tandem with the A350's new developments, and using the more cost-effective existing fuselage cross section (with new materials, larger windows, different wing, new engines etc), how compelling do you think it is or could be?

Thoughts (and don't crucify me, I'm not Mel Gibson)?

Regards
MH
come visit the south pacific
 
Aither
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:54 pm

Maybe the 350 is already competing with these aircraft.
Total seat count is not all.
Never trust the obvious
 
Motorhussy
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:03 pm

Quoting Aither (Reply 1):
Maybe the 350 is already competing with these aircraft.
Total seat count is not all.

With an aging fleet of A300's adopted from JAS, JAL would look at what in the Airbus portfolio to replace them?

Humor me, this isn't real life.

MH
come visit the south pacific
 
pavlin
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:04 pm

If they renew the A330 it will enter service behind 787 and with less new technologies. It doesn't make sense
 
Motorhussy
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:08 pm

Quoting Pavlin (Reply 3):
If they renew the A330 it will enter service behind 787 and with less new technologies. It doesn't make sense

I'm just talking about using the existing fuselage cross section so as to take advantage of the existing jig (thuhs reducing some development cost). In all other aspects, it would be a totally new aircraft (hypothetically of course).

MH
come visit the south pacific
 
zvezda
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:36 pm

The B787-3 is a niche market not worth competing over. The B787-8 market is an interesting market, but what could Airbus offer? The A350 is too large and the A340 is far too heavy. The only option would be to apply the B787 engines to the A330, as Airbus proposed two years ago. That proposal didn't fly. It's not worthwhile to develop a whole new plane for this market segment. The launch of the current A350 ceded the B787-8 market to Boeing.
 
Adria
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:48 pm

In long term the 787-9 will outsel the -8 version. This has happened so often in the past that Airbus should focus on the -9 possibly-10 and the 777. After all that was what the major airlines wanted in the first place. If anyone should now what (after all that has been said about the previous A350 version) the airlines want its Airbus. But it is nice to see that carriers like EK, LH,... waited for Airbus to come up with a solution instead of ordering the 787-9 or pushing Boeing to bring the -10 to the market sooner.
 
Motorhussy
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:48 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
The launch of the current A350 ceded the B787-8 market to Boeing.

Which was theirs with the A332.

MH
come visit the south pacific
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:10 pm

-3? No, not enough market as demonstrated by 14 orders in 2 years.

-8, yes. Far more frames to sell in this segment. I think if Airbus does the re-engine of the A-330 it could grab a few sales here since the A-350XWB is much larger.
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dank
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 12:08 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
The B787-3 is a niche market not worth competing over. The B787-8 market is an interesting market, but what could Airbus offer? The A350 is too large and the A340 is far too heavy. The only option would be to apply the B787 engines to the A330, as Airbus proposed two years ago. That proposal didn't fly. It's not worthwhile to develop a whole new plane for this market segment. The launch of the current A350 ceded the B787-8 market to Boeing.

 checkmark 

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 8):
-3? No, not enough market as demonstrated by 14 orders in 2 years.

-8, yes. Far more frames to sell in this segment. I think if Airbus does the re-engine of the A-330 it could grab a few sales here since the A-350XWB is much larger.

I think Airbus must have made a calculation that a) they could benefit by competing most at potentially Boeing's weakest point in the 787 line (i.e. a potentially range-limited 787-10 and b) that the most likely customers for the -8 sized plane (who already hadn't ordered a -8) are US carriers who already are extremely unlikely to buy an Airbus. This allows them to target higher capacities of aircraft without losing the efficiency they would have lost by starting with a smaller craft (i.e. not having to target a range from the -8 to the current a350-1000).

One other thing is that my guess is that in the next generation of narrowbodies, both Boeing and Airbus are going to cede the low end to the likes of Embraer and so the gap between the high end of the narrowbodies and the 350-800 may not be quite as large (there still will be a gap, though).

Cheers.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 1:57 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
The B787-3 is a niche market not worth competing over.



Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 8):
-3? No, not enough market as demonstrated by 14 orders in 2 years.

I still think the 787-3 could be big (in terms of orders and marketshare) in China and India when it comes time for their populations to start moving about the country. It's light (compared to other available widebodies), carries plenty of people, and would work with existing airport infrastructure far better then an A350-1000/777-300/747/A380.

I don't believe flocks of narrowbodies are going to be as effective at moving large numbers of people by air. Of course, China and India could just go straight to high-speed rail to connect their major population and business centers, but the costs to launch such an infrastructure might be too great at first.

[Edited 2006-08-03 18:58:19]
 
redflyer
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:07 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 9):
I think Airbus must have made a calculation that a) they could benefit by competing most at potentially Boeing's weakest point in the 787 line (i.e. a potentially range-limited 787-10 and b) that the most likely customers for the -8 sized plane (who already hadn't ordered a -8) are US carriers who already are extremely unlikely to buy an Airbus. This allows them to target higher capacities of aircraft without losing the efficiency they would have lost by starting with a smaller craft (i.e. not having to target a range from the -8 to the current a350-1000).

I think Airbus ceded the market covered by the 787-3,8,9 to Boeing probably because they couldn't compete effectively on CASM. They instead decided to go for the "low hanging fruit" in Boeing's current wide-body offerings, which is the 777. Going after the 777 will assure Airbus can claim a clear advantage.
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:39 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 11):
think Airbus ceded the market covered by the 787-3,8,9 to Boeing probably because they couldn't compete effectively on CASM. They instead decided to go for the "low hanging fruit" in Boeing's current wide-body offerings, which is the 777. Going after the 777 will assure Airbus can claim a clear advantage.

I dont see much in terms of low hanging fruit here unless it is the 200, which hasnt been selling well recently anyway and which will also be killed off by the 787-10 when it is launched.

And what clear advantages will the XWB really have over the 777-300ER? I have not seen any solid numbers on this yet from any source.
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zvezda
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&

Fri Aug 04, 2006 5:04 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
China and India could just go straight to high-speed rail to connect their major population and business centers, but the costs to launch such an infrastructure might be too great at first.

At first? High speed rail is far more expensive than any alternative. If China or India build high speed rail, it will be driven by either prestige or corruption or both.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 11):
Going after the 777 will assure Airbus can claim a clear advantage.

Airbus will not just be able to claim a clear advantage. Airbus will be able to demonstrate through sales a clear advantage of the A350 over the B777.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 12):
And what clear advantages will the XWB really have over the 777-300ER?

Lower CASM at a smaller size.
 
gigneil
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 5:08 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 13):
High speed rail is far more expensive than any alternative.

Sigh.. you've always said that. However, the vast bulk of the research disagrees, at least in terms of the cost/environmental impact.

That's an offline, or maybe non-av discussion.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 13):
Lower CASM at a smaller size.

Do we actually know that the A350-1000XWB is smaller than the 777-300ER?

N
 
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ER757
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 5:22 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 9):
I think Airbus must have made a calculation that a) they could benefit by competing most at potentially Boeing's weakest point in the 787 line (i.e. a potentially range-limited 787-10 and b) that the most likely customers for the -8 sized plane (who already hadn't ordered a -8) are US carriers who already are extremely unlikely to buy an Airbus.

 checkmark 

I think Airbus has definitely proposed a winner with their A350XWB lineup. I think this is evident by SQ's order, QR's backing out of the 777 deal and EK's non-decision so far (I expect that one to go A350 eventually).
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 5:45 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 14):
Do we actually know that the A350-1000XWB is smaller than the 777-300ER?

Airbus' own marketing data lists three class seat counts with 9 A/B Y as:

A350XWB: 350
773ER: 365

The 773ER number is Boeing's seat count.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
astuteman
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 5:48 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 9):
I think Airbus must have made a calculation that a) they could benefit by competing most at potentially Boeing's weakest point in the 787 line (i.e. a potentially range-limited 787-10 and b) that the most likely customers for the -8 sized plane (who already hadn't ordered a -8) are US carriers who already are extremely unlikely to buy an Airbus

Airbus have cleverly positioned the A350X at where the money is, i.e. no. of frames x purchase price. That this also coincides with a (currently) range limited 787-10, and an "older" model 772 helps.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 12):
And what clear advantages will the XWB really have over the 777-300ER?

It will perform a very similar mission (in terms of ASM) to 773ER whilst being 20% lighter on take-off.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 14):
Do we actually know that the A350-1000XWB is smaller than the 777-300ER?

It's certainly narrower, and almost certainly won't be longer.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
. The B787-8 market is an interesting market, but what could Airbus offer? The A350 is too large and the A340 is far too heavy. The only option would be to apply the B787 engines to the A330, as Airbus proposed two years ago. That proposal didn't fly. It's not worthwhile to develop a whole new plane for this market segment.

An A330 re-engine might be worthwhile if driven primarily by the freighter and tanker. As you say, for the pax version, against the 787, in its own right it's not competitive.

I'd like to see Airbus at some time produce a "smaller" family, based on the A350X cross-section, but limited to c 420 000lb MTOW, powered by the 748 GEnx engines (which should be perfect for it), but with a substantially smaller wing and lighter landing gear than the A350X.
With all the new tech, such a craft should be able to match or even beat, the current A330 performance, on a 20% lower MTOW (maybe 270-280 pax for 6000Nm, and 220-230 pax for 7000+ Nm - (assuming a 59m and 54m ish fuselage..)).
Whilst not DIRECTLY competing with the 787-8, it should be very competitive for those that don't need 8500Nm (being 20% lighter than the 787-8) and judjing by current A330 sales, there's a strong market here still. I reckon it could steal a lot of 787-8 sales.....
A good long-term replacement for the A300 I would have thought.
Sadly, I wouldn't expect to see it for 10-12 years minimum........

Regards
 
kaitak744
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 5:54 am

Quoting Aither (Reply 1):
Maybe the 350 is already competing with these aircraft.
Total seat count is not all.

The thing is, Boeing thinks Y2 should be a A300, 767, 757-300, A330-200 replacment, and only that. Airbus thinks it should be an A330-A340 replacement. Airbus doesn't seem to care that there are soooo many old 767s out there. Replacing a 767 with an A350-8 will be too big of a capacity jump. Airbus still has 2 huge product gaps: 200-250 seats, and 350-500 seats. I think they should fill these markets with something.
 
zvezda
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&

Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:02 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 14):
Do we actually know that the A350-1000XWB is smaller than the 777-300ER?

In length, width, and MTOW, yes.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 18):
The thing is, Boeing thinks Y2 should be a A300, 767, 757-300, A330-200 replacment, and only that. Airbus thinks it should be an A330-A340 replacement. Airbus doesn't seem to care that there are soooo many old 767s out there. Replacing a 767 with an A350-8 will be too big of a capacity jump. Airbus still has 2 huge product gaps: 200-250 seats, and 350-500 seats. I think they should fill these markets with something.

I think the A320 and B737 replacements will cover the 200 to 250 seat market.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:03 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 14):
Do we actually know that the A350-1000XWB is smaller than the 777-300ER?



Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 16):
Airbus' own marketing data lists three class seat counts with 9 A/B Y as 350 (vs. 365 for the 773ER per Boeing marketing data).

And Airbus tends to use more Economy and less First and Business Class passenger seating then Boeing does, so a 773ER in "Airbus spec" would probably be closer to 400. So the 773ER should carry more people then an A350-1000 in each airline's specification, but that should not be a deal-breaker/deal-maker in itself, since each airline has their own capacity needs.
 
Motorhussy
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:42 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 18):
I think they should fill these markets with something.

I concur, which is why I started this thread.

Regards
MH
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Johnny
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 7:52 am

I think NO.

The market of the -3 is too small for two airplanes

The market of the -8 is already covered by the A358 as the seat difference is insignificant. There is no need for Airbus or Boeing to cover the complete range of airplanes in each claas.

The -8 will not be the most successful version of the B787, that will be the -9 as history shows in case of the B762 and 763.


 Smile
 
2wingtips
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 8:08 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 22):
The market of the -8 is already covered by the A358 as the seat difference is insignificant. There is no need for Airbus or Boeing to cover the complete range of airplanes in each claas.

Rubbish. The -800 is a significantly heavier aircraft than the -8, as reportedly the A350 wing has been optimised to the larger -1000. Do a MTOW comparison b/w the 2. The -8 will dominate it's segment.

The -8 will not be the most successful version of the B787, that will be the -9 as history shows in case of the B762 and 763.

Maybe so, but there are a lot of -8 RFPs still out there. I'm sure the -8 will eventually be very popular with many US majors, Euro charter carriers and airlines with large existing 763 fleets, such as LA. There is still a big market out there for the -8, but I suspect you may be correct in stating that the -9 will be the biggest selling version of the 787.
 
zvezda
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 8:23 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 22):

The -8 will not be the most successful version of the B787, that will be the -9 as history shows in case of the B762 and 763.

It's far too early to make that sort of prediction. Just about two months ago several members here were suggesting that Boeing should drop the B787-9 and skip from the B787-8 to the B787-10. That was similarly premature.

It's a safe bet that the B787-8, B787-9, and B787-10 will each outsell the B787-3. Other than that, I would not make any relative sales predictions among the B787 models.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 8:27 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 8):
-3? No, not enough market as demonstrated by 14 orders in 2 years.

Well more than that, but still only two customers. Boeing has 43 orders for the 787-3

JAL - 13
ANA - 30

Quoting Johnny (Reply 22):
The market of the -8 is already covered by the A358 as the seat difference is insignificant. There is no need for Airbus or Boeing to cover the complete range of airplanes in each claas.

Not any more. The A350-800 XWB is now significantly larger than the 788 or the original A358. The new A358 is really a 789 competitor.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 22):
The -8 will not be the most successful version of the B787, that will be the -9 as history shows in case of the B762 and 763.

Be it as it may, it's a market projected to be nearly a thousand units and Airbus' closest widebody is nearly 20% larger.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 14):
Do we actually know that the A350-1000XWB is smaller than the 777-300ER?

I would certainly hope so. It would be a tough business case if Airbus couldn't beat out an aircraft a decade older...
 
gigneil
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 8:49 am

Smaller, not better.  Smile

N
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 8:58 am

Quoting Dfwrevolution (Reply 25):
Well more than that, but still only two customers. Boeing has 43 orders for the 787-3

JAL - 13
ANA - 30

I would definately expect Delta to order the 787-3. To replace the non-ER 767-300s, there is no need for the range of the 787. Additionally, the wingspan of the 787 must use larger gates. The 787-8 would have to use Concourse E (and the upcoming Concourse F) at ATL, and may not be able to use the gates at JAX, FLL, TPA, and LGA. The 787-3 has a shorter wingspan, making it able to use Concourse T and Concourse A at ATL, and giving it the ability to land at JAX, FLL, TPA, and LGA.
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Johnny
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:04 am

@Dfwrevolution
"Be it as it may, it's a market projected to be nearly a thousand units and Airbus' closest widebody is nearly 20% larger."

Do we really have accurate figures from B and A to compare both airplanes? What figures do you compare for example?

Johnny  Smile
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:36 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 26):
Smaller, not better

Somehow my brain inserted CASM into your sentence  Wink

Quoting Johnny (Reply 28):
Do we really have accurate figures from B and A to compare both airplanes? What figures do you compare for example?

Enought to know that the A350-800 XWB is now much much larger than the 787-8? Yes, we do.
 
Johnny
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:43 am

@Dfwrevolution

Thanks a lot for that answer. 

I give you my figures:

Boeing 787-8 210-250 according Boeing

A358 270 seats according Airbus

Assuming that Boeings 250 are based on 9y as are the 270 from Airbus, i do not see that much difference.To be exact : 20 seats more than 250 is just 8 percent and not around 20 percent like you mentioned...

 

[Edited 2006-08-04 04:56:08]
 
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scbriml
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 3:29 pm

It is often claimed here on a.net that Airbus's figures for the seating capacity of their planes are overly optimistic. If that is the case, then the A350-800 will be closer to the 787-8 in "real World" configurations than some here are prepared (or like) to admit.

We shall see how it pans out. wink 
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ZKNBX
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 3:37 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
The B787-3 is a niche market not worth competing over.

I am NOT so sure about this. Asia is getting more and more populous... Europe more and more congested. And then there is the domestic USA. There is NO B762 or A312 replacement on the market or anywhere in sight until the B787-3 arrives and Airbus has surrendered that market to Boeing. Unwisely, I think.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:18 pm

Quoting ZKNBX (Reply 32):
There is NO B762 or A312 replacement on the market or anywhere in sight until the B787-3 arrives and Airbus has surrendered that market to Boeing.

The problem that I see is that the 787-3 is a much bigger plane than the 762 or A310. Boeing's website list the 787-3 as seating 290-330. At 290 seats, it's a big step up for a lot of A310 and 762 operators.

Here are a few real World A310 and 762 seating examples:

A310
OK - C21,Y188
IR - C18,Y210
AI - C20,Y181
TS - C20,Y239  crowded 

762
DL - F18,Y186
US - C24,Y179
AA - F22,Y166 or F9,C30,Y119-121
CO - C25,Y149

Even for A300 and 763 operators, the 787-3 looks bigger. For example, LH (often quoted on a.net as a prime candidate for the 787-3) operates its A300s in a Y280 configuration. The 787-3 in all-Y seating would seat at least 50 pax more. Great if LH really needs those extra seats. But what if they don't?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:38 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
The B787-3 is a niche market not worth competing over.

Correct IMO.
I don't see many orders for this plane; especially not orders which Airbus could win, knowing they are simply locked out of the Japanese and a big portion of the US market by gentlemen's agreement.

Quoting Dank (Reply 9):
I think Airbus must have made a calculation that a) they could benefit by competing most at potentially Boeing's weakest point in the 787 line (i.e. a potentially range-limited 787-10 and b) that the most likely customers for the -8 sized plane (who already hadn't ordered a -8) are US carriers who already are extremely unlikely to buy an Airbus. This allows them to target higher capacities of aircraft without losing the efficiency they would have lost by starting with a smaller craft (i.e. not having to target a range from the -8 to the current a350-1000).

I think that is spot on indeed.
What people do forget is that the 787, when the -10 will be launched, will have become some sort of compromise plane too actually and that it has initially been positioned at the low end of the wide body market with a big eye on the natural Boeing customers and their specific needs for US coast to coast transportation. Airbus needs not set its plane as low in the market to cover these specific needs, allowing them to optimize it more for the somewhat more ambitious needs on range and capacity as voiced by several leading international airlines, most notably LH, SQ, EK...

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
I still think the 787-3 could be big (in terms of orders and marketshare) in China and India when it comes time for their populations to start moving about the country. It's light (compared to other available widebodies), carries plenty of people, and would work with existing airport infrastructure far better then an A350-1000/777-300/747/A380.

I thought we'd been through all this before.
The 787-3 is only a few hundred pounds lighter than the A300-600, which will be more than 20 years old by the time the 783 flies, despite being made mostly of composites! If it wasn't for its new engines, the 787-3 would have a hard time matching the economics of the old A300 which hasn't seen an update since over a decade, so I wouldn't call the brand-new 787-3 a light plane really: it seems like it carries heaps of dead weight around in its basic 787 structure.
Luckily for Boeing the A300 does not share any commonality with the rest of the Airbus family, or simply fitting the 787 engines to it would have given Airbus a plane able to beat its new competitor, contrary to the A330. The fact Airbus doesn't do so, proofs the cost of such a thing can not be recovered through sales and thus adds weight to the opinion the 787-3 must be a niche plane indeed.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:43 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 17):
Airbus have cleverly positioned the A350X at where the money is, i.e. no. of frames x purchase price. That this also coincides with a (currently) range limited 787-10, and an "older" model 772 helps.

Or has Boeing cleverly boxed Airbus out of the 200-250 pax market and pushed them to go where there appears to be some space.

As for the "limited" 787-10, it was partly a function of engine availability, and Airbus is now making certain that such engines will be available. But one should consider that the 540K lbs MTOW 787-10 should covers the entire market of the A333/772A in addition to most of the 772ER/A343 market. It will be interesting to see how the market breaks if a "limited" -10 is launched and the competition is between B market and a C market plane.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 22):
I think NO.

The market of the -3 is too small for two airplanes

The market of the -8 is already covered by the A358 as the seat difference is insignificant. There is no need for Airbus or Boeing to cover the complete range of airplanes in each claas.

The -8 will not be the most successful version of the B787, that will be the -9 as history shows in case of the B762 and 763.

So are you predicting the 773ER will outsell the 772ER? I'm not saying that won't happen, but it isn't obvious that it will happen, and that will kind of ruin your theory. And note that the A332 is outselling the A333 despite being on the market for less time. There may be other reasons why the 763 outsold the 762 that may not apply to the 787-8, a model larger than the 763.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 30):

Boeing 787-8 210-250 according Boeing

A358 270 seats according Airbus

Assuming that Boeings 250 are based on 9y as are the 270 from Airbus, i do not see that much difference.To be exact : 20 seats more than 250 is just 8 percent and not around 20 percent like you mentioned...

When Boeing quotes a single number for 9Y, they show around 240 for the 787-8 and 280 for the 787-9. That would place the A358 closer to the -9.

The problem with single numbers is that we have to compare the relative number of seats in each class, and given that Airbus tends to put a higher mix of economy seats in their quite configuration, you could still be right. But it would have to be at least 10 seats less for a comparable configuration for that to be so.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:57 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 35):
As for the "limited" 787-10, it was partly a function of engine availability, and Airbus is now making certain that such engines will be available. But one should consider that the 540K lbs MTOW 787-10 should cover the entire market of the A333/772A in addition to most of the 772ER/A343 market. It will be interesting to see how the market breaks if a "limited" -10 is launched and the competition is between B market and a C market plane.

Remember, the 787 needs bleedless engines: it is easier to make a bleedless engine bleeding (like is done for the 748 and A350), than the other way round like you are suggesting here.
 
zvezda
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 5:29 pm

The A350 and B787 both seat 9 abreast. To compare passenger capacities among various models, compare interior cabin lengths.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 6:50 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 37):

The A350 and B787 both seat 9 abreast. To compare passenger capacities among various models, compare interior cabin lengths.

That's probably good for a first approximation, but it is possible that the extra width for the A350 changes the seating in the premium cabins.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
astuteman
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 8:40 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 35):
As for the "limited" 787-10, it was partly a function of engine availability, and Airbus is now making certain that such engines will be available

Correct  checkmark .

That's why "limited" was in inverted commas, and supported by the word (currently) in brackets...  Smile

Regards
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:02 pm

Quoting Dfwrevolution (Reply 25):
Well more than that, but still only two customers. Boeing has 43 orders for the 787-3

JAL - 13
ANA - 30

Thank you for that correction. I thought the ANA order was all -8.
One Nation Under God
 
flyinghippo
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Fri Aug 04, 2006 11:14 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 13):
At first? High speed rail is far more expensive than any alternative. If China or India build high speed rail, it will be driven by either prestige or corruption or both.

That's an awfully arrogant statement.

I wonder why Japan built their bullet trains, why France and Germany have their high speed rails...
 
787engineer
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Sat Aug 05, 2006 12:20 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 36):

Remember, the 787 needs bleedless engines: it is easier to make a bleedless engine bleeding (like is done for the 748 and A350), than the other way round like you are suggesting here

Personally, I don't see why it would be any more difficult to go from bleed to bleedless. I'm not saying it's easier, but from what I know (I don't work in propulsion) it should be about the same amount of work.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 30):
@Dfwrevolution

Thanks a lot for that answer.

I give you my figures:

Boeing 787-8 210-250 according Boeing

A358 270 seats according Airbus

Assuming that Boeings 250 are based on 9y as are the 270 from Airbus, i do not see that much difference.To be exact : 20 seats more than 250 is just 8 percent and not around 20 percent like you mentioned...


If you check the 787 Seat Maps thread you can see the a proposed 9Y 787-8 layout has only 237 seats, and it has been widely discussed through the 748, and 787 threads that manufacturer's estimates for seat counts are usually higher than what the airlines end up using. I see the 787-8 as a 200-225 pax long range plane in revenue service, and the A358 around 250-270 pax. The 787-9 will be the direct competitor against he A358. On Boeing's website the 787-9 is listed as a 250-290 pax airplane. . .and the A358's listed seat count of 270 puts it right in the middle of that range.
 
keesje
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Sat Aug 05, 2006 12:35 am

I think the A300/A310/757/762 short medium haul 220-270 seat is still an open market with a lot of potentail IMO. The 787-3 is a very heavy replacement in compared to those aircraft and hasn´t been ordered since the initial 7e7 launch.

I still expect Airbus to come up with a longer narrowbody. Probably one in between the A320 and A321 and one two rows longer then the A321. GE is testing the water for an CFM56 upgrade with a bigger carbon fan etc. Airbus will probably launch an array of A320 improvements (Enhanced)

It wouldn´t offer 250 seats but way, way lower operting cost then widebodies on <5-6 hour flights.

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TP313
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Sat Aug 05, 2006 12:37 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 39):
Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 35):
As for the "limited" 787-10, it was partly a function of engine availability, and Airbus is now making certain that such engines will be available

Correct .

That's why "limited" was in inverted commas, and supported by the word (currently) in brackets...

Regards

Yes, it is partly a function of engine availability, but it is also in part the
need for a strenghtened wing and a redesigned main landing gear...
I wonder what that would do to the 787-10 EIS date... suddenly 2014
is not that far away...
 
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Stitch
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:04 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 34):
The 787-3 is only a few hundred pounds lighter than the A300-600...If it wasn't for its new engines, the 787-3 would have a hard time matching the economics of the old A300...

I agree the 787-3 would not make a very good replacement for A300 operators. Which is why I have been skeptical about LH, for example, ordering it.

But my comment was not about that. It was about what is the most effective and efficient way to move ~300 people up to 3000nm. I believe the 787-3 is the most effective and efficient way to do that currently, now that the A300 is out of production.

If you want to talk about "hauling dead weight", an A380D would be a perfect example of the extreme end of that. JL and NH bought 747Ds because they had no choice - it was the only platform that could carry 500+ people. But it was still a lot of "dead weight" to carry around since the 747 was designed for missions significantly longer. As soon as the 773A came out (which also carries around "dead weight", but not as much as a 747), they went to it. And now the 787-3 carries even less "dead weight" then the 773A, so they have gone to it.

As Asian and Indian domestic travel expands, narrowbodies won't be sufficient. Sure, they could abuse long-range widebodies like many do now, but with the 787-3, they don't have to. Now, they may want long-range widebodies for the sake of fleet flexability. So they may buy 787-8s, since it's the same size but offers more range. But they do have a choice, and I think they may very well exercise it.
 
F14ATomcat
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:12 am

Quoting MotorHussy (Thread starter):
Just for the hell of it and to see what you all think, should Airbus revise the composition of the existing A330/40 airframe (new fandangled composites etc), put on some new wings and go head to head with the 787-3 & 8?

Why, so they get the crap beat out of them with another poor offering?
 
787engineer
Posts: 545
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RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&

Sat Aug 05, 2006 1:24 am

Quoting TP313 (Reply 44):
Yes, it is partly a function of engine availability, but it is also in part the
need for a strenghtened wing and a redesigned main landing gear...
I wonder what that would do to the 787-10 EIS date... suddenly 2014
is not that far away...

The wing will also be new for the -9 so the -10 should not be any more difficult (relative to the -9). The main landing gear will be an interesting issue going forward. Considering that the "baseline" 787-8 is scheduled for mid-2008, and the -3/-9 will both be ready just two years later in 2010, I seriously doubt the 787-10 would take another four years after the -9 . . . that's just ridiculous. I expect that if they launch the -10 anytime within the next two years it will have an EIS around 2012.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 43):
I think the A300/A310/757/762 short medium haul 220-270 seat is still an open market with a lot of potentail IMO. The 787-3 is a very heavy replacement in compared to those aircraft and hasn�t been ordered since the initial 7e7 launch.

There are many long-range widebodies that are being "abused" (if you want to call it that) on short-range routes. There are plenty of 777s and even some 747s used today for "short" hops which could be done much more efficiently with a 787-3. Also another issue is slot restrictions or sometimes an airline just doesn't have that many gates avaliable, and would like to have less frequency. Maybe a two 787-3 flights instead of three A32X/737 flights. i think sales of the 787-3 will pick up as the Asia market grows and the U.S. airlines return to profitability. I think Boeing will end up selling 250-500 787-3s over its lifetime (assuming Airbus doesn't build a short-range 225-300 pax plane. Just my .

Quoting Stitch (Reply 45):
JL and NH bought 747Ds because they had no choice - it was the only platform that could carry 500+ people. But it was still a lot of "dead weight" to carry around since the 747 was designed for missions significantly longer. As soon as the 773A came out (which also carries around "dead weight", but not as much as a 747), they went to it. And now the 787-3 carries even less "dead weight" then the 773A, so they have gone to it.

As Asian and Indian domestic travel expands, narrowbodies won't be sufficient. Sure, they could abuse long-range widebodies like many do now, but with the 787-3, they don't have to.

 checkmark 

[Edited 2006-08-04 18:26:20]
 
TP313
Posts: 264
Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2001 12:37 am

RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&8?

Sat Aug 05, 2006 3:37 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 47):
The wing will also be new for the -9 so the -10 should not be any more difficult (relative to the -9)

If Boeing wants to match the 350XWB range figures the -10 wing will
have to be strenghtened to carry more fuel and heavier engines than the -9 or
the current -10 iteration, that is supposed to have the same MTOW
of the -9.

If you are saying that the -9 will adopt whatever wing is designed for the
-10, then it (-9) will sufer a weight penalty compared to the -9's current iteration, reducing the slight range advantage it has relative to the 358.

[Edited 2006-08-04 20:39:42]
 
787engineer
Posts: 545
Joined: Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:08 am

RE: Should Airbus Compete Directly With The 787-3&

Sat Aug 05, 2006 5:10 am

Quoting TP313 (Reply 48):

If Boeing wants to match the 350XWB range figures the -10 wing will
have to be strenghtened to carry more fuel and heavier engines than the -9 or
the current -10 iteration, that is supposed to have the same MTOW
of the -9.

If you are saying that the -9 will adopt whatever wing is designed for the
-10, then it (-9) will sufer a weight penalty compared to the -9's current iteration, reducing the slight range advantage it has relative to the 358.

No, no, why would the -9 adopt the -10 design? What I'm saying is the 2014 EIS suggestion is quite ridiculous. It won't take 4 years to design the -10 after the -9 EIS. Each wing will be point designed. The -8 wing will be modified significantly and strengthend to accomodate a higher MTOW of the -9. The -10 will have to be modified to carry bigger engines and more fuel if Boeing wants to match the A350's range. I'm saying there will be essentially a new wing for both the -9 and -10. Between the 787-8's EIS (2008) and 2010 Boeing will produce 2 new wings, one for the -9 and another for the -3. So your reasoning that strengthening the -10 wing will affect the EIS is simply not valid. Now if it was 2011 and the found out they needed to strengthen the wing because of miscalculations, then yes it may affect EIS. The -10 hasn't been launched so even it were to have 4 engines (exaggerating here of course) it won't affect the planned 2012 EIS date for the -10. The only reason the -9 and -10 will have the same MTOW (for now at least) is so that they won't need to redesign the landing gear.

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