trevd
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Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 1:08 pm

Fair use excerpts recognized....

ATI reporting that Qantas is to receive more than A$104.4 million ($79.M USD) in damages from Airbus for delays in deliveries of its 12 firm-ordered A380-800s. It has meanwhile confirmed orders for four more Airbus A330 twinjets, two of which will be leased.

Looks like the total cost of settling with Qantas is A$104.4 + cost of 2x A330's, which is mitigated by the 2 extra A330's they sell to a lessor who get the rent. My guess would be there is also some residual value guarantee to the lessor who gets to take the A330's back at some time earlier than what a 'market' lease term should be.

Pretty creative for Airbus I would think....

My estimate of the total bill:
$79M is damages
$75M for A330 #1
$75M for A330 #2
$40M in total residual guarantee exposure for the lease a/c.
------
$269M (or about equal to 2 A380's....) probably a fair outcome for both.
 
boeing767-300
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:05 pm

Whilst it is always near impossible to quantify in dollar terms the "actual" cost of anything, I for one thought when QF ordered A380 and 13 A330s that was the end of the Long Haul Boeing fleet (namely 767)

With 45 787s on order this is where Airbus has really paid dearly make no mistake about that.
 
Glareskin
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:27 pm

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 1):
With 45 787s on order this is where Airbus has really paid dearly make no mistake about that.

How sweet it is for Airbus to receive an order for more A380 from Qantas. Make no mistake about that either!
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skgsjulax
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:35 pm

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 2):
How sweet it is for Airbus to receive an order for more A380 from Qantas. Make no mistake about that either!

Airbus seems to be making a practice of trying to get disgruntled A380 customers to buy a few more (SQ now QF). Maybe they are doing it to keep the production line moving and to cover their overheads, investment and any excess engineering costs. I can see the public relations value of this move but it can be disastrous financially if the sales are heavily discounted. At the end I doubt any of this will be sweet...
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N174UA
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:40 pm

Quoting TrevD (Thread starter):
Fair use excerpts recognized....

ATI reporting that Qantas is to receive more than A$104.4 million ($79.M USD) in damages from Airbus for delays in deliveries of its 12 firm-ordered A380-800s. It has meanwhile confirmed orders for four more Airbus A330 twinjets, two of which will be leased.

Do you have a website link to the source? I want to print it out, so that I can reference this in my paper about Airbus and recent problems, as it relates to the EU.

Thanks!  Smile
 
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mariner
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 2:47 pm

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 1):
With 45 787s on order this is where Airbus has really paid dearly make no mistake about that.

Well, mayhap:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...ory/0,20867,20077276-23349,00.html

If QF does do an SQ, Airbus will probably be happy enough.

cheers

mariner
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antares
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:08 pm

Dixon and Gregg are going to Toulouse early next month. Most likely with board members. Our person at the analyst briefing is fully engaged this afternoon.

However his rushed view was that the visit to Toulouse would probably seal a deal for converting options and buying more. The meeting was told the jet is peforming very credibly and competently, the first delivery would be October 07, and that the airline was 'eager' to put it into service.

Other points. Hub buster jet suitable for Qantas doesn't exist. Zero interest in 748 (meaning they'll probably take a dozen next week after someone crawls bleeding over broken glass to beg them to accept a final offer). Qantas will consider international freight expansion in the medium term, and its most likely option as this stage will be to convert those jumbos it will start retiring in two years time.

Qantas profit before tax margins are way down. Around 5.3% Jetstar even worse, if you go before one off costs you get around 3.5% margin or below 2% after they are taken into account. It needs to review Jetstar carefully..not ditch it...but re think every element of the strategy including a product that is driving customers to Virgin Blue in droves.

There will be interesting analysis of the fuel situation in coming days in investor newsletters I would guess. It has hedged around 70% at $70 and optioned much of the hedging, in case oil goes into free fall. (If only...) However the commissions on these instruments are daunting. If oil falls much below $75 for a significant part of the next 12 months Qantas will be severely tested and need to engineer all sorts of ways out of the consequences.

Antares
 
trevd
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:14 pm

Quoting N174UA (Reply 4):
Do you have a website link to the source? I want to print it out, so that I can reference this in my paper about Airbus and recent problems, as it relates to the EU.

ATI is a fee based industry news service but you can get a trial membership here: http://www.rati.com/

Actually what is interesting is everyone is expecting a few more A380's as the price for settlement, but so far QF is not announcing that. Curious if that's just timing or if they're not going to 'double-down' like SQ.
 
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mariner
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 3:19 pm

Quoting TrevD (Reply 7):
a few more A380's as the price for settlement,

I'm not expecting that at all. I would assume that the settlement has been made.

If - stress "if" - QF does exercise some options, I would assume that to be a seperate issue.

cheers

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astuteman
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:17 pm

Quoting TrevD (Thread starter):
+ cost of 2x A330's

That looks to me like pure conjecture.
$79m sounds like the "big-time" pay up to me.

Quoting TrevD (Thread starter):
$269M (or about equal to 2 A380's....)

 rotfl 

Even the "doomsday" scenario put forward for launch A380's estimated the launch price at $145m-$150m, and that was in FY2000 dollars (approx $185m-$190m in Fy2006).

It's unlikely that new purchasers will get much change from $200m (unless they buy 25-30+) for their A388.  no 

Quoting TrevD (Thread starter):
$269M (or about equal to 2 A380's....) probably a fair outcome for both

$79m (or about equal to 40% of an A380...) probably a fair outcome for both....
 
antares
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:38 pm

These are liquidated damages for the A380 delay. I doubt that they will seem all that large by the end of the finanial year after next , June 30 2008 when the total should have been taken off the final payment of the jets involved.

Qantas appears intent on taking more A380s after Dixon and Gregg visit Toulouse early next month (which could coincide with the next board meeting). As they said earlier in the day, the A380 is looking very competent, and they are eager to put it into service after first delivery next October.

One of them said they still hope to take their first 787s in 2008. No doubt there will be speculation about the word 'still.'

Qantas indicated that there could be up to 65 of the 787s in the Jetstar fleet in the medium term. I think this makes it clear that Jetstar will use the 767 sized jets to replace considerably more Qantas domestic capacity than some people currently think.

But this was a fairly downbeat briefing. The numbers are not good for either Qantas or Jetstar, because of fuel, and Qantas mainline costs are still disgraceful and ripe for restructuring which means management keeps flirting with industrial action. However so far Qantas has kept most employees on side, so the feared conseuqneces of unrest and dissension between Jetstar and mainline employees may not boil over.

We'll see. What I don't see is a huge new order for jets any day soon, excluding the conversion of some A380 options.

Antares
 
leelaw
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:29 pm

According to the WSJ:

... The airline also recognized in its fiscal 2006 accounts, A$104.4 million in liquidated damages that it will be paid by Airbus, but this will be received piecemeal over coming years to coincide with the delivery schedule, said Chief Executive Geoff Dixon.

Qantas is expected to receive the first of the aircraft in October 2007, around 12 months later than originally scheduled...


http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20060816-715512.html
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manni
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 8:49 pm

Quoting TrevD (Thread starter):
My estimate of the total bill:
$79M is damages
$75M for A330 #1
$75M for A330 #2
$40M in total residual guarantee exposure for the lease a/c.
------
$269M (or about equal to 2 A380's....) probably a fair outcome for both.

Good that you state that this is YOUR estimate. I'm trying to understand you...

US$ 75 million for each A330? Are you implying that Airbus is GIVING these A330's for FREE to QF? There's no source whatsoever that even remotely indicates this, and in the incredible unlikely event they did, it would cost Airbus nowhere near US$ 75 million to build an A330.

It is more likely that QF, after recieving additional discounts on the A380 (as compensation for the delay) still needed extra lift. Airbus offered them the A330 ---PAY ATTENTION NOW, THIS MIGHT GET CONFUSING--- at a price Airbus is able to recover some of the money it payed QF for the delays (yes, I'm implying Airbus made a nice profit on these A330's, with QF's deal for 45 787's in mind there's NO INCENTIVE for Airbus to suck it up).

Now the question is, how much money will Airbus make on these extra 4 A330's? Take the amount Airbus payed as compensation and deduct the profit Airbus made on the A330's and you've got the real figure Airbus will have lost. Why deduct the profit of the A330's of the penalty for the delay of the A380's.... because it is obvious that Airbus would not have sold these if the A380's were not delayed.

Did you mention US$ 79 million as compensation? Airbus would neet to make a profit of roughly US$ 20 million on each of these 4 A330's. Coincidentally US$ 20 million is roughly 12% of the listprice for an A330, Airbus profit margin has been around 11% in the last years...
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Halibut
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 9:11 pm

Why did we not see SQ's compensation package ??? Or did they announce it ?

And ,
How many Airliners are seaking damages from Airbus's A380 delays ?

Halibut
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manni
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 9:23 pm

Quoting Halibut (Reply 13):
Why did we not see SQ's compensation package ???

How credible is the source that the compensation mentioned for QF?

Quoting Halibut (Reply 13):
How many Airliners are seaking damages from Airbus's A380 delays ?

Airbus estimated to pay US$ 250 million in compensations. If QF takes a chunk of US$ 79 million out of these 250 for their 12 aircraft, there's money left to compensate customers for another 25 aircraft... 10 for SQ, and 15 for EK perhaps?... Or is US 79 million as compensation for the delay of 12 A380's just a little optimistic and did the author of the source did his research on an internet forum?  Wink
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2wingtips
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 9:44 pm

Quoting Antares (Reply 6):
Other points. Hub buster jet suitable for Qantas doesn't exist. Zero interest in 748 (meaning they'll probably take a dozen next week after someone crawls bleeding over broken glass to beg them to accept a final offer). Qantas will consider international freight expansion in the medium term, and its most likely option as this stage will be to convert those jumbos it will start retiring in two years time.

I'll agree on the 772LR. They said no new types would be added to the fleet. They certainly said nothing that indicated to me the 748I is out of the running at QF. It is to be considered same type as 744, shares a 787 type cockpit and 787 engines(if QF orders GEnx). Have heard second hand(I didn't hear this part) that DFW is still firmly on the radar. Don't know the timeframe or the expected equipment.
 
cloudyapple
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:09 pm

Who says Qantas is getting the A330s for free? Even so they are worth more tha $75m each for sure.
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leelaw
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:14 am

Qantas to get over A$100m for Airbus A380 delays, to add more A330s

Australia’s Qantas Airways is to receive more than A$100 million ($77 million) in damages from Airbus for delays in deliveries of its 12 firm-ordered A380-800s. It has meanwhile confirmed orders for four more Airbus A330 twinjets, two of which will be leased.

The Oneworld alliance carrier says in its financial results announcement today that “delays in the delivery of 12 A380 aircraft has resulted in the recognition of A$104.4 million of liquidated damages from Airbus”.

A spokesman says in an emailed reply to a query from Flight's 24h premium aviation news and data service Air Transport Intelligence that “the A$104 million from Airbus will be paid over time until the final delivery of the aircraft...”

...Qantas says in its fiscal full-year earnings statement that it believes the A380 “remains the optimal aircraft for flying between hubs and on dense point-to-point routes...”


http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...us+A380+delays%2c+to+add+more.html
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Thorben
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:22 am

Some comments here a hard to understand.

Why is Airbus supposed to give the A330s for free to QF or pay some lease rates?

And where is QF ordering more A380s?

AFAIS there is only the $79million compensation to be paid. Not nice, but on a $2 billion deal they can probably afford that.
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787engineer
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:29 am

Quoting Halibut (Reply 13):
Why did we not see SQ's compensation package ??? Or did they announce it ?

And ,
How many Airliners are seaking damages from Airbus's A380 delays ?

Probably every airline that ordered an A380 is seeking some form of compensation for the A380 delays; they would be fools not to. The customers can probably void any of the contracts since it's been delayed so long. They probably won't cancel orders since they've planned for and need the A380, but it doesn't hurt to go back to Airbus and ask for compensation (along with some threats of course). I think the exact deals that are worked out to compensate the airlines would be kept quite secret. The monetary compensation may be public since they need to report it in some form in their annual reports, but the aircraft deals that are made to "compensate" for the delays will be kept confidential.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:35 am

Qantas and Airbus will never reveal how much they agreed to pay in terms of real $. I would be willing to bet that the break even number for the A-380 just went up by a few frames.
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cobra27
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:37 am

Boeing and Airbus should cooperate and offer qantas airplanes no lower than 500 million dollar a piece. Even it is only a A320.
 
787engineer
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 12:42 am

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 21):
Boeing and Airbus should cooperate and offer qantas airplanes no lower than 500 million dollar a piece. Even it is only a A320.

One of them would no doubt try to sneak something by or offer something else in the contract like large amounts of maintenance for free or "buy one get one free" Big grin
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 1:08 am

Quoting Antares (Reply 6):
Other points. Hub buster jet suitable for Qantas doesn't exist. Zero interest in 748...



Quoting Manni (Reply 12):
It is more likely that QF, after recieving additional discounts on the A380...still needed extra lift.

QF might have come to the conclusion that since they can't fly direct between LHR and SYD, they will have to face SQ's large and EK's huge fleet of A380s plying that route, which will depress yields across the board. In such a game, airlines are going to make money on volume (sell lots of seats right at the positive edge of profitability).

In such a case, they will need raw seats and the A380 is going to have the advantage over the 747-8I. So QF will need more A380s in order to be able to hold on to their market share while lowering fares, requiring more seats to make the flight profitable.

In such a market, QF would want to launch new, "niche" services to cities like DFW, JFK, ORD, and other cities where they won't face competition and can charge higher fares. And 787-8s and 787-9s will be excellent fits for such markets, especially in the early stages of their development when overall traffic patterns will be lower.
 
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 1:10 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 18):

He's back, and living in Cuba! Is he next in line for the "throne"?  Wink
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jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 1:17 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 19):
Probably every airline that ordered an A380 is seeking some form of compensation for the A380 delays; they would be fools not to. The customers can probably void any of the contracts since it's been delayed so long. They probably won't cancel orders since they've planned for and need the A380, but it doesn't hurt to go back to Airbus and ask for compensation (along with some threats of course). I think the exact deals that are worked out to compensate the airlines would be kept quite secret. The monetary compensation may be public since they need to report it in some form in their annual reports, but the aircraft deals that are made to "compensate" for the delays will be kept confidential.

 checkmark 

as I've been saying all along, the A380 will do fine for its needs which the carrier ordered them for...

also, many carriers such as QF, SQ, and EK have already spent hundreds of millions of dollars in upgrades, training, infrastructure, etc. for the A380...unless the A380 was a big dog of a plane (which it isn't), I wouldn't expect to see any cancellations....MH might be one of the only cancellations (probably deferred)..and that is specific to their current financial situation..
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astuteman
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:27 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 19):
Probably every airline that ordered an A380 is seeking some form of compensation for the A380 delays; they would be fools not to

This comment pre-supposes that EVERY A380 will be late, and I don't believe that this is actually the case.
IIRC compensation will be paid on 50-60 A380's, with the balance being delivered on time (according to the last issued schedule).

Regards
 
787engineer
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 3:59 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 26):
This comment pre-supposes that EVERY A380 will be late, and I don't believe that this is actually the case.
IIRC compensation will be paid on 50-60 A380's, with the balance being delivered on time (according to the last issued schedule).

Regards

Yes it does assume every A380 will be late, thanks for pointing that out. Considering that the plane is several months late, and IIRC the production rate will be slower than originally planned for the first ~3 years, I think it's fair to assume quite a few of the A380's will be late. AFAIK, Airbus will only deliver 9 aircraft in 2007 compared to the planned 20-25, and they should deliver 5-10 fewer in 2008 and about 5 fewer in 2009. I'm sure those are pretty conservative estimates given out, and Airbus should be able to deliver faster than the published shortfall numbers. But that first year ramp up shortfall is pretty significant. . .
 
leelaw
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:26 am

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 27):
Quoting Astuteman (Reply 26):
This comment pre-supposes that EVERY A380 will be late, and I don't believe that this is actually the case.
IIRC compensation will be paid on 50-60 A380's, with the balance being delivered on time (according to the last issued schedule).

Regards

Yes it does assume every A380 will be late, thanks for pointing that out. Considering that the plane is several months late, and IIRC the production rate will be slower than originally planned for the first ~3 years, I think it's fair to assume quite a few of the A380's will be late. AFAIK, Airbus will only deliver 9 aircraft in 2007 compared to the planned 20-25, and they should deliver 5-10 fewer in 2008 and about 5 fewer in 2009. I'm sure those are pretty conservative estimates given out, and Airbus should be able to deliver faster than the published shortfall numbers. But that first year ramp up shortfall is pretty significant. . .

The estimated production shortfall through the end of 2009 per Airbus will be 22-31 units. I'm not sure how that translates into the number of nascent deliveries which will be subject to contractual penalties.

See: http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...ar+end+to+fulfil+SIA+delivery.html

[Edited 2006-08-17 21:30:36]
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777STL
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 4:31 am

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 2):
How sweet it is for Airbus to receive an order for more A380 from Qantas. Make no mistake about that either!

I think at this point Airbus would rather have new customers rather than the same ones picking up options.
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antares
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 6:22 am

Stich.

Qantas is enthusiastically committed to both the A380 and the 787-8 and -9.

On DFW I have continued doubts. For a start, neither of the 787s nor the A388 could do it non-stop both ways with commercially attractive payloads, and route charges for over flying Mexico would apply.

The fact that BA is struggling on the DFW route, and often going to a two class configuration, is a sobering thought too, considering the hubs alleged attractions to premium travellers.

QF has many connections to everywhere out of LAX on AA, none of them involving a back track. This connectivity also benefits people arriving at LAX on its non-stops from Brisbane and Melbourne, not just Sydney. A daily non-stop say top DFW that is in fact the same old two stop if you start in the other major east coast cities is silly.

I would expect that within five years there will be an impressive number of non-stops across the Pacific with Qantas and Jetstar 787s from cities like Brisbane and Auckland and probably half a dozen A380s predominantly from Sydney but one perhaps two from Melbourne.

By that time Virgin Blue will be on the routes...with what I have no knowledge...Qantas will finally have strangled Air NZ (just a prediction and not a happy one) and a resurgent US sector (just a prediction but a happy one) may have thrown up a carrier that is actually competitive.

I'd put even money on Singapore Airlines being on the non-stop routes as well, and by 2014 they might even be tempted to do it with their A350s or new offerings in the Boeing line-up that are yet to find daylight.

Antares
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 6:32 am

Quoting Antares (Reply 30):

The fact that BA is struggling on the DFW route, and often going to a two class configuration, is a sobering thought too, considering the hubs alleged attractions to premium travellers.

the problem with that argument however is that BA competes directly with AA...where as QF would complement AA......

Quoting Antares (Reply 30):

QF has many connections to everywhere out of LAX on AA, none of them involving a back track.

However...out of DFW, one could connect to multiple airports with a heck of a lot more frequency than LAX...JFK/EWR/LGA would be just one example..

not to mention, an extensive South American route out of DFW...
"Up the Irons!"
 
antares
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 6:40 am

Jaconbin,

Take your point, however I'm not convinced..hey I'm an old duddy fuddy...that there are enough takers for DFW. Maybe a future Jetstar hub.

As to South America, no-one goes to anything south of Rio via the US tghese days. Apart from the fascista security hassles, and the high probability of having to spend hours on the connection, the total trip time and price is way over the top compared to the direct dailies that go to Santiago and BA via Auckland on South America carriers, the Chilean in partnership with Qantas and I think the Argentinean airlines does a code share too, and gives both give FFP points for those too intellectually crippled to understand what has happened to such schemes.

One thing is for sure, Qantas would not invest in a new type of jet exclusively to fly to Texas.

Antares
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 6:52 am

Quoting Antares (Reply 32):

One thing is for sure, Qantas would not invest in a new type of jet exclusively to fly to Texas.

 checkmark ...

Quoting Antares (Reply 32):
As to South America, no-one goes to anything south of Rio via the US tghese days. Apart from the fascista security hassles, and the high probability of having to spend hours on the connection, the total trip time and price is way over the top compared to the direct dailies that go to Santiago and BA via Auckland on South America carriers, the Chilean in partnership with Qantas and I think the Argentinean airlines does a code share too, and gives both give FFP points for those too intellectually crippled to understand what has happened to such schemes

interesting...didn't know that... scratchchin ..

but its not just connecting pax, Texas is home to many large companies..

Quoting Antares (Reply 32):

Take your point, however I'm not convinced..hey I'm an old duddy fuddy...that there are enough takers for DFW. Maybe a future Jetstar hub.

I still think a lot depends on the -200LR/ 747-8I situation...if Boeing could get it down to QF's specs, I could still see either one in QF colours........

DWF, JFK would automatically open up, as well as potentially serving LHR most of the year and back to SYD all year round....

will the costs justify it......we'll see...

there are rumours DL will be getting some -200LR's instead of -200ERs..granted that they won't fly to SYD first, but if they do try on the SYD-JFK route, it would be a majour coup.....
"Up the Irons!"
 
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mariner
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:00 am

Quoting Antares (Reply 32):
Maybe a future Jetstar hub.

If Jetstar is to appeal to the lower yield (read tourist) market, I am not sure what there is at either Dallas or Fort Worth for them.

A natural hub (as opposed to a created hub) is two things - a functioning crossroads and a desirable destination in its own right.

The beauty of LAX is that it is very glamorous, has great weather, big business, amazing law firms, people flooding in from Asia, famous hotels, beaches, lots for the tourist to do (from Getty to Disney), great shopping - and easy connections to the rest of the US and the world.

DFW has - the oil business. Split with Houston.

Why would I want to change planes in DFW after a very, very long flight just to go somewhere else?

 confused 

cheers

mariner
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jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:06 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 34):
Why would I want to change planes in DFW after a very, very long flight just to go somewhere else?

Potentially easier connections if one is a transiting passenger...

LAX is a mess 1/2 the time..the new DFW terminals are a breeze to go through......

-getting to IAH from LAX would require either stopping via DFW or taking another carrier.....

-if pax want to go to the City of Los Angeles, why would they want to fly to DFW in the first place?

-also, there must be something about the business case for DFW, that is why one has been hearing QF mentioning DFW for a number of years....

cheers.

apropos-I'll take NoCal over SoCal any day of the year...beach or no beach... Smile
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dank
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:06 am

Quoting Antares (Reply 32):

As to South America, no-one goes to anything south of Rio via the US tghese days. Apart from the fascista security hassles, and the high probability of having to spend hours on the connection, the total trip time and price is way over the top compared to the direct dailies that go to Santiago and BA via Auckland on South America carriers, the Chilean in partnership with Qantas and I think the Argentinean airlines does a code share too, and gives both give FFP points for those too intellectually crippled to understand what has happened to such schemes.

One thing is for sure, Qantas would not invest in a new type of jet exclusively to fly to Texas.

 checkmark  to both comments. I was having trouble picturing why anyone would want to fly to dallas to get to, say, buenos aires when there are other code share partners available.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 33):
I still think a lot depends on the -200LR/ 747-8I situation...if Boeing could get it down to QF's specs, I could still see either one in QF colours........

DWF, JFK would automatically open up, as well as potentially serving LHR most of the year and back to SYD all year round....

 checkmark  It seems to me that this is the crux of the issue. If, and this is a big if, the 777LR can do SYD-LHR reasonably well, then some of these other routes make sense for QANTAS. Otherwise, it seems like it won't matter.

The Delta JFK-SYD posibility is interesting. How much of a stretch on the 772LR would it be? From what I gather on the DL discussions is that the goal of the LR is more for carrying heavier loads at the limits of the 772ER range... Which is really where I think that money can be made on the LR (and for the the 345, just not as profitably). I'm still not convinced that there is enough money to be made (yet) on the ultra long hauls...

cheers.
 
ebbuk
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:08 am

Quoting Boeing767-300 (Reply 1):
Whilst it is always near impossible to quantify in dollar terms the "actual" cost of anything, I for one thought when QF ordered A380 and 13 A330s that was the end of the Long Haul Boeing fleet (namely 767)

With 45 787s on order this is where Airbus has really paid dearly make no mistake about that.

No argument there. Sadly I've got to agree with that

Antares, please don't excite me with talk of QF ordering more 380s. I can't stand it. Oh go on, give me more
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:14 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 36):
The Delta JFK-SYD posibility is interesting. How much of a stretch on the 772LR would it be? From what I gather on the DL discussions is that the goal of the LR is more for carrying heavier loads at the limits of the 772ER range... Which is really where I think that money can be made on the LR (and for the the 345, just not as profitably). I'm still not convinced that there is enough money to be made (yet) on the ultra long hauls...

 checkmark 

I think that's probably why they QF haven't pulled the trigger yet.....
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antares
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:25 am

I can tell you that Qantas has without reservation shut the door and the wallet on buying the -200LR for either London or JFK. It does about ten first class passengers to the latter once a month, usually only a few, but can get over 20 business class fares according to travel management consultant estimates.

It needed about 160 such fares a day, all willing to go via Sydney, to make either city work and the best they could get out of the jet was about 120 available seats on days when the temperature at Sydney was going to allow the jet to get into the air before it renovated Joyce Drive or acquaplanned across Botany Bay. Ditto the A345.

I don't see QF buying -300ERs even though they should have. And especially not after yesterday's shocker annual results.

Speculation about new jets and Virgin Blue is a safer topic at the moment. Anything can happen, but I'd give Boeing the edge.

Antares
 
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mariner
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:28 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 35):
-if pax want to go to the City of Los Angeles, why would they want to fly to DFW in the first place?

It isn't a question of "wanting to go" to a place. I am sure there are people who want to leave point A, fly directly to point B and then fly straight back again.

But NYC is a long flight from down under, and, almost certainly, there are people I can do business with on the west coast as well.

Same rules for the tourist - one stone - two birds. One airfare - two (great) vacation destinations.

And given a choice between Dallas and LA - or SF (or Russian River!) - for a break, I know where I'd choose.

As Air New Zealand might have found out when they tried DFW?

cheers

mariner
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jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:35 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 40):
It isn't a question of "wanting to go" to a place. I am sure there are people who want to leave point A, fly directly to point B and then fly straight back again.

But NYC is a long flight from down under, and, almost certainly, there are people I can do business with on the west coast as well.

Same rules for the tourist - one stone - two birds. One airfare - two (great) vacation destinations.

And given a choice between Dallas and LA - or SF (or Russian River!) - for a break, I know where I'd choose.

sure, but we're talking about different situations here....

you are talking about pax who specifically want to go to Los Angeles...I'm talking about business as well as pax who need to connect..or people who need to business in the state of Texas........

not to mention, its not as if QF is deciding between serving LAX or DFW..that would be a "no-brainer"...

cheers..
"Up the Irons!"
 
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mariner
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:41 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 41):
you are talking about pax who specifically want to go to Los Angeles.

No, not at all.

If I want to go from Sydney to Podunk, West Virginia, I would rather do it through LAX than DFW. Or SFO than DFW.

And I would give myself a break at LA - or SF - either going to or coming back from.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 41):
not to mention, its not as if QF is deciding between serving LAX or DFW..that would be a "no-brainer"...

Indeed, but I would be very surprised to see non-stops SYD-DFW at any point in the foreseeable future.

cheers

mariner
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jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 7:59 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 42):

And I would give myself a break at LA - or SF - either going to or coming back from.

many people do not have either the luxury or a plan to go to Los Angeles or San Francisco.....

cheers...
"Up the Irons!"
 
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mariner
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:22 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 43):
many people do not have either the luxury or a plan to go to Los Angeles or San Francisco.....

From down here, the airfare to Podunk WV would include a stopover in either LA or SF. It would not be a luxury.

You seem determined that QF must fly to DFW. Okay. It doesn't make sense to me, but I don't know that they won't.

So maybe you are right.

But I know that Air New Zealand did fly to DFW - and doesn't now.

cheers

mariner
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2wingtips
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:06 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 44):
But I know that Air New Zealand did fly to DFW - and doesn't now.

And AirNZ being part of the Star alliance has no need to access the huge AA hub at DFW. QF, on the other hand does. A big difference.
I'm still trying to source details to back up Antares claim that QF has zero interest in the 748I. I believe that to be quite incorrect and nothing was stated yesterday to back up the claim.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:08 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 44):

You seem determined that QF must fly to DFW. Okay. It doesn't make sense to me, but I don't know that they won't.

I never said that, I was trying to explain my position as to why QF might want to fly to DFW.....

with due respect, I think there are more possibilities out of SYD than AKL....just like I believe there are more possibilites out of AKL than say Billings, Montana.....

cheers..
"Up the Irons!"
 
gigneil
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:18 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 42):
If I want to go from Sydney to Podunk, West Virginia, I would rather do it through LAX than DFW. Or SFO than DFW.

The better point, not that I think DFW is worth an aircraft type, is that you'd be more likely to get to Podunk, WV via DFW than LAX without multiple connections.

N
 
antares
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:30 am

2wingtips,

Nothing was said in your hearing because there is nothing to say about the 748. It isn't yet on the page for the international freighter either, although perhaps it should be.

It has been put to me by a technically competent person at Qantas that in the current situation even thinking about more spending on new jets is a capital offence, pun intended.

Qantas will pursue the two big planks of its fleet policy, comprising 787s and A380s, backed up by a team of lawyers ready to pounce on the slightest stumble. As distinct from the teams of work place lawyers, who will pounce on the employees just for the fun of it because it helps Qantas look good to the neocons in government while it beavers away at getting approval for the foreign equity cap to be lifted. (And bring it on.)

When Airbus presented to Qantas recently it wasn't dropping by for tea. It was bringing them up to date with the 'family' of the A380, including the one that puts fuel in the centre wing area and has a stronger wing skin and flies for an astonishingly long distance, and another higher capacity version that could be economical in higher density as well as multi class configurations on routes where leisure growth might be capable of exploitation.

Unfortunately the 748 doesn't offer up exciting off-spring.

But as I pointed out, Boeing or Airbus can always crawl bleeding over broken glass and make offers too good to refuse.

If there is a clue to Boeing's thinking under McNerny today's decision to ditch Connexion suggests the that a man of teflon forged in the world of GE finance and the like isn't going to tolerate loss making deals to anyone.

Antares
 
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mariner
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RE: Airbus Pays Up Big At Qantas

Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:01 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 46):
with due respect, I think there are more possibilities out of SYD than AKL....just like I believe there are more possibilites out of AKL than say Billings, Montana.....

With due respect - those are just examples. One is used because it did provide non stop trans-Pacific service to DFW.

And there is, for example, no such place as Podunk, West Virginia. At least to my knowledge.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 47):
The better point, not that I think DFW is worth an aircraft type, is that you'd be more likely to get to Podunk, WV via DFW than LAX without multiple connections.

That Australians and (New Zealanders) would want to visit - for business or vacation - in any numbers?

Wow. The US has changed in the fifteen months that I have been away.

mariner
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