ksupilot
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Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:10 am

I've read on here that the only replacement for the 757-200 and -300 is another -200 or -300. While the 737-800 and -900 are coming close in size, they do not have the same range as the 757. So overall, the 737 is close, but no deal. The 787 is much too large to take over the role of the 757. Maybe on some international routes it would work, however, there are airlines that do use the 757 on some domestic routes. For example, I am flying on a -200 at the end of September from CLE to EWR.
I could see some airlines replacing the domestic 757s with the 737s, Continental seems to use both on domestic routes.

What are the chances of Boeing finally coming out with a true 757 replacement with Y1? Some already believe that Y1 will have a longer gear, therefore allowing larger engines to be used for a 757 replacement. It will be amazing for Boeing to pull this off, since the Y1 is supposed to fill the smaller 100 seat, 737-600 market as well.

The key to all this is a larger engine. That is one of the main things holding the 737-900 back. Because its low ground clearance, a larger engine is not possible. Therefore it is most likely a given that one requirement for Y1 is to be higher off the ground. But how would Boeing go about creating a powerful variant of a 737 replacement that could also replace the 757. The two are entirely different beasts. We're talking a long stretch, probably different wing sizes, and possibly different engines.

I don't know about you, but it would be cool to see a 757 length aircraft using the technology and fuselage shape. I hate to bring the topic of Y1 up again, as it is so early, however, we already have talked about the 737 replacement portion of Y1 and the possibility of a LRJ. There has been little discussion of the larger variants.
 
zvezda
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:42 am

Quoting KSUpilot (Thread starter):
What are the chances of Boeing finally coming out with a true 757 replacement with Y1?

Probable. With greater range, it could significantly further fragment the transatlantic market. I'm also expecting it to accomodate single-file LD3s.

Quoting KSUpilot (Thread starter):
Some already believe that Y1 will have a longer gear, therefore allowing larger engines to be used for a 757 replacement.

The B737RS (formerly Y1) will surely have longer landing gear than the B737. Expect a height similar to the A320. Not only do high-bypass engines require larger fan diameters, but the jetbridges have difficulty reaching down to the B737s. The bigger landing gear question is how many wheels it will have. Two-wheel maingear bogeys are simpler, lighter, cheaper, and better suited to an A320/B737 sized airliner. Four-wheel maingear bogeys are needed for a heavier airliner like the B757. I think the B737RS will have four-wheel maingear bogeys.

Quoting KSUpilot (Thread starter):
Y1 is supposed to fill the smaller 100 seat, 737-600 market as well.

Supposed by some, yes, but unlikely. The B787-3/8 is much larger than the B757-300 and Boeing can't afford to leave a large gap in the middle of the product line. The B737RS will have to come in a variant at least about the size of the B757-300. My guess is the smallest one will about the size of an A319 or A320. Anything smaller than an A319 will be better served by a four abreast aircraft.
 
CX747
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 6:43 am

The 757 is truly an amazing aircraft and if Boeing had put more money into updating it along with creating a family around it, it would still be in production. Unfortunately, the 737 family and A320 family killed it. I don't know if Boeing is ever going to be able to replace it. With that being said, the 737-900ER is coming awfully close. When Boeing designs the next round of narrowbody aircraft, they will more than likely design a model that will imatate the 757 but until then, the second hand market for 757s will be tight.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
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Stitch
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 7:21 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
The bigger landing gear question is how many wheels it will have. Two-wheel maingear bogeys are simpler, lighter, cheaper, and better suited to an A320/B737 sized airliner. Four-wheel maingear bogeys are needed for a heavier airliner like the B757. I think the B737RS will have four-wheel maingear bogeys.

Perhaps Boeing could offer both? The A320 can be fitted with a four-bogie gear unit, but only one Indian airline I believe has it (for use from "unimproved" airfields, I believe).

Maybe the 73G/738-sized Y1-100 would have two-wheel bogies and the 739/752-sized Y1-200 would have four?
 
PPVRA
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:39 am

Airbus seems to be in a better position to replace the 757 with another aircraft than Boeing. The A350 does not reach all the way down to the 757 market, but the 787 can. I say this because Airbus would have no capacity overlap in their product line.

What'd you guys think?

Cheers
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
zvezda
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 8:59 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 4):
The A350 does not reach all the way down to the 757 market, but the 787 can.

Huh? The B787-3/8 is tremendously larger than the B757-300.
 
PPVRA
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:23 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):

Huh? The B787-3/8 is tremendously larger than the B757-300.

The -3, yes, but as far as capacity the -8 serves about the same market as the 752/753 (not talking range/cargo).

-8: ~210-250 pax
752: ~200-228
753: 243-289

All figures taken from Boeing.com

Since we are talking 757 replacement, the 787 would not be the optimal substitute (too much aircraft).

Making any sense?
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
 
ksupilot
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:39 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 6):
Since we are talking 757 replacement, the 787 would not be the optimal substitute (too much aircraft).

Right now there is a gap in the market that the 757 used to fill. The -900 comes close, but it really is not the same aircraft.
Now if boeing were to place a longer gear on the -900 and then larger engines, then you'd have a viable 757 replacement.
But with Y1 only a decade away, it would not make sense to undertake such a drastic redesign.
 
WAH64D
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:40 am

IMHO the B757 was misused by the majority of its operators back when fuel was cheap and times were good. The only two scheduled operators I can think of that currently utilise this aircraft to its full potential are Continental and Iceland Air. They are used on medium density, medium range routes where the ability to lift a reasonable amount in the belly of the aircraft is as important as the number of bums on seats. This is what the B757 was designed for and it remains the best aircraft for this mission to this day, not pootling around short haul/high demand sectors. There are other aircraft much better suited to this.

If we're being realistic, the A321 and B739 can easily do the tasks most operators are/were using B752s for. The only feasible replacement I can see is one which can replace B757 and B767, in a word B787.
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zvezda
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:54 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 6):
The -3, yes, but as far as capacity the -8 serves about the same market as the 752/753 (not talking range/cargo).

The B787-3 and B787-8 have exactly the same size cabins -- 223.8 sq meters. The B757-200 has a cabin floor area of 154.9 sq meters. I don't have the exact cabin floor area of the B757-300 at hand, but I recall it being about 185 sq meters. So, the B787-3/8 is about 25% larger than the B757-300.
 
dank
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:57 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 6):
The -3, yes, but as far as capacity the -8 serves about the same market as the 752/753 (not talking range/cargo).

-8: ~210-250 pax
752: ~200-228
753: 243-289

The problem with this analogy is that the -8 is the same exact size as the -3. The only reason that they report smaller passenger loads is because of the mix of seats on the planes for short-haul vs. long-haul flying. Filling the same size plane with fewer passengers is no dice.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
Huh? The B787-3/8 is tremendously larger than the B757-300.

   The 787 was never going to be a 752 replacement, but I read comments by people suggesting it could be a 753 replacement which I just never understood. Add to that the fact that Boeing began emphasizing the 9-abreast seating which just made matters worse in the capacity department. Even vs. a 763 in domestic configuration, it's a bit of a step up, let alone vs. the 757s. The clear move to me seems to be that B and A will build their new single aisle planes from the 319/320/73G/738 size through the 753 range and relegate the smaller end to the Embraer's of the world or partner with someone to build something else in that space.

cheers.

edit to say doh! because Zvezda beat me to the punch (as usual on the top of his game)!

[Edited 2006-08-29 03:00:16]
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:59 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 6):
The -3, yes, but as far as capacity the -8 serves about the same market as the 752/753 (not talking range/cargo).

That's because the 787-8 is shown with a full international configuration with business and first class cabins. If you configure the 787-3/8 with the same seats as a 757, the 787-8 will seat way more.

Keep in mind that the 787-3/8 is bigger than the 767-300/ER
 
B777ER
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:10 am

Whatever it is, it will not be THE 757 which even if your an Airbus fan, we all love the rocket ride off the runway she gives us...she will be missed by many.
 
WAH64D
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:25 am

Quoting B777ER (Reply 12):
Whatever it is, it will not be THE 757 which even if your an Airbus fan, we all love the rocket ride off the runway she gives us...she will be missed by many.

Hear hear. I was lucky enough to get a B752 on my flight from LHR-DUS last week. I'm an airbus fan but the B752 with RB211s remains my favourite aircraft of all time. I for one will be very sad when BA retires them.
I AM the No-spotalotacus.
 
ksupilot
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:51 am

I get to fly a CO 757-200 soon...EWR to CLE, really looking forward to it!

Quoting B777ER (Reply 12):
Whatever it is, it will not be THE 757 which even if your an Airbus fan, we all love the rocket ride off the runway she gives us...she will be missed by many.

Just wondering, what causes the rocket like take off with the 757? Maybe Y1 will have a rocket like take off.
 
adipasqu
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:05 am

Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 14):
Just wondering, what causes the rocket like take off with the 757? Maybe Y1 will have a rocket like take off.

It's engines. No, seriously though a 752 with RB211's might be one of the best performing commercial aircraft ever made, pound for pound. The 752/3's also have a supercritical wing with tremendous lift (and wake issues to go along with it).
707 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 741 742 752 753 762 763 764 D9S D10 319 320 321 M80 M82 M83 M87 M88 M90 SF3 ERJ CRJ
 
ksupilot
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:35 am

Quoting Adipasqu (Reply 15):
It's engines. No, seriously though a 752 with RB211's might be one of the best performing commercial aircraft ever made, pound for pound. The 752/3's also have a supercritical wing with tremendous lift (and wake issues to go along with it).

I hope that when it comes time for Y1, Boeing looks at it as a two fold project. The 737-NG has already shown you can stretch a 737 until it appears to fill the 757 market, however, it will never match the 757s performance.

So why not have a "smaller" variant to replace the 737-800/900. Smaller engines, a smaller wing, etc. Then have a larger stretch to fill the 757-200/300 market, an aircraft that is larger than the 737-900 but smaller than the 787. Could the GEnx engines used on the 787 be used on a 757 replacement?
 
102IAHexpress
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:04 pm

Quoting CX747 (Reply 2):
but until then, the second hand market for 757s will be tight.

It’s interesting, IZ has/had a couple of Rolls Royce powered 757-300’s available. They are being put up for sale/lease. They seem to be fairly new.

Who knows maybe CO will pick them up?
 
B777ER
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:14 pm

Along with what Adipasqu said about the wing...its also the thrust to weight ratio of the aircraft. I dare say there is not one of us on this board that doesn't get a slight grin when they hear the engines spool up to takeoff thrust at the beginning of the run on a 757.
 
zvezda
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:21 pm

Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 16):
So why not have a "smaller" variant to replace the 737-800/900. Smaller engines, a smaller wing, etc. Then have a larger stretch to fill the 757-200/300 market, an aircraft that is larger than the 737-900 but smaller than the 787. Could the GEnx engines used on the 787 be used on a 757 replacement?

Boeing could probably cover the B737-700 to B757-300 market with a single wing -- perhaps with different wingtip extentions. The smaller variants could have 5000nm+ range. The GEnx engines would be far too large. The B737RS will sell so many units that the engines will definitely be designed from a clean sheet to optimize efficiency for the model. There is no way Boeing would put widebody engines on the B737RS.

The concrete part of Boeing's future product line is the B787. They need to start one size smaller than the B787-3/8 (which happens to be the size of the B757-300) and cover the range downward from there.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:23 pm

Quoting Adipasqu (Reply 15):
The 752/3's also have a supercritical wing with tremendous lift (and wake issues to go along with it).

with beautiful contrails too...especially when there is fog/haze in the area... Smile
"Up the Irons!"
 
kaitak744
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:31 pm

Also, in addition to the 757-200 not being replaced, the 767-200 is also not being replaced. Surprised no one mentioned that. The 787-8 replaces the 767-300, and the 787-9 replaces the 767-400. So, the whole seating range from 190-230 seats is unfilled, even by Airbus.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:30 pm

Quoting Wah64d (Reply 8):
There are other aircraft much better suited to this.

Yes, the 739ER and 321 are very well suited to routes that had the 752 before them, routes that fly no cargo but lots of people throughout the day.

Which is why any 757 replacement will be focused on the routes like TransAtlantic, North to South America, Europe to Africa, TransChina, etc. 200 seats in 2-class (249Y) with the ability to take pallets in the belly (longways) and a range greater than the 783 would fit the bill. Maybe 5000nm.

Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 14):
I get to fly a CO 757-200 soon...EWR to CLE, really looking forward to it!

I think CO's 752 is the best configured 752 out there right now (ok, maybe the UA PS is better, but it's a niche aircraft). The 753 is a cool plane to fly on too because you look back at where the end of the plane should be, and there's a wall, then another cabin, like someone added another train car to the subway.

Quoting 102IAHexpress (Reply 17):
Who knows maybe CO will pick them up?

For the right price, they sure would. It would help quite a bit with international expansion to have another 753 for domestic high demand routes.

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 21):
the 767-200 is also not being replaced

Like the 753, the 762 just never proved itself as a great aircraft for airlines. Even CO with it's very new 762s is finding it expensive to operate. The 762 is a good example of why Boeing isn't going to make a "short widebody" part of Y1. The 753 was also not popular as it was just too long and didn't have enough range, and is a pretty good case against Boeing introducing a Y1 of that size. It's why I expect that there will be a Y1 BETWEEN the size of the 752 and 753 (249Y), and a Y1 about the size of the 739ER (199Y, a bit smaller than a 752), a Y1 slightly smaller than the 738 (174Y) and one the size of the 73G (149Y), and no 736 sized at all. The gap between the 738 and 73G is too large and is a pain for airlines, and the gap between the 738 and 739 is too small in real configurations.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
optionscle
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:55 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
Like the 753, the 762 just never proved itself as a great aircraft for airlines

I know that it didn't sell very well but I've heard that CO is kicking themselves for not ordering more while they had the chance. That's why they bought the extra TZ birds.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:01 pm

Quoting OptionsCLE (Reply 23):
I know that it didn't sell very well but I've heard that CO is kicking themselves for not ordering more while they had the chance. That's why they bought the extra TZ birds.

Not the 762, the 753, right?

Actually, CO DID order more. Boeing convinced them to cancel them and take more 738s instead so they could shut the 757 line down. CO agreed because they couldn't afford to take the 757s soon enough to force Boeing to build them before shutting the line down.

The 762 sold quite a few copies, but it was expensive to operate as better options came about. The 753 is cheap to operate, but has limited appeal due to it's size/range ratio. CO prefers a large narrow body fleet, but so many other carriers prefer wide bodies in the size of the 753, that it had limited appeal. But it will have a long life with those who fly it now, and as a charter jet in the future.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
optionscle
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 5:06 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 24):
Actually, CO DID order more. Boeing convinced them to cancel them and take more 738s instead so they could shut the 757 line down. CO agreed because they couldn't afford to take the 757s soon enough to force Boeing to build them before shutting the line down.

Quite right, I was referring to the 753. Very interesting, though, about the order transfer. How many frames did Continental have on order before thy switched them to 738's?
 
zvezda
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 5:23 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
The 753 was also not popular as it was just too long and didn't have enough range, and is a pretty good case against Boeing introducing a Y1 of that size.

I'm not following your argument here. Boeing can build a B757-300 sized B737RS (formerly Y1) with satisfactory range. How is the limited range of the B757-300 an argument against a B737RS of that size -- which wouldn't suffer that range limitation?
 
ksupilot
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 9:44 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
It's why I expect that there will be a Y1 BETWEEN the size of the 752 and 753 (249Y), and a Y1 about the size of the 739ER (199Y, a bit smaller than a 752), a Y1 slightly smaller than the 738 (174Y) and one the size of the 73G (149Y), and no 736 sized at all.

That sounds rather likely, and it does make sense. I also understnad why they would never put widebody engines on the Y1. So enjoy those 757 take-offs while you can, because as far as we know there won't be anything like it once it is gone.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:09 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
The gap between the 738 and 73G is too large and is a pain for airlines...

Is that really the case? I know AS has found the trip-costs between the 73G and 738 to be so small that even if the 738 does not go out full, as long as it goes out a few seats more then a 73G, they're making more money then if they had flown a full 73G. And when it goes out full, they do better thanks to the extra F and Y seats available for sale (often at higher last-minute fares). This is the reason AS has halted 73G purchases and is buying 738s going forward.

Can't speak directly for DL, but that they did not bother with the 73G but started with the 738... Of course, if DL starts ordering 73Gs to replace their smaller DC-9s/MD-8xs, then...  Wink

I notice CO operates both the 73G and 738 (as well as the 739) and seems to buy them in similar amounts at similar timeframes, so perhaps CO's route structure or traffic patterns better merits both types.
 
WAH64D
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Tue Aug 29, 2006 10:31 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
Yes, the 739ER and 321 are very well suited to routes that had the 752 before them, routes that fly no cargo but lots of people throughout the day.

Which is why any 757 replacement will be focused on the routes like TransAtlantic, North to South America, Europe to Africa, TransChina, etc. 200 seats in 2-class (249Y) with the ability to take pallets in the belly (longways) and a range greater than the 783 would fit the bill. Maybe 5000nm.

I concur 100%.
I AM the No-spotalotacus.
 
CX747
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:09 am

It seems to me that the 757 never realized its full potential until it was out of production. I wonder if CO would buy new 757s if the line was open. As others have stated, the replacement Y1 is only a decade away so until then the 737-900ER will "stand in the gap".
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
ksupilot
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:11 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
I notice CO operates both the 73G and 738 (as well as the 739) and seems to buy them in similar amounts at similar timeframes, so perhaps CO's route structure or traffic patterns better merits both types.

I like that about CO. When looking at the 737-800 and the 757-200, instead of replacing the -200s on domestic routes, CO uses both.

How profitable is it for CO to use a large aircraft like a 757-200 on a route like CLE-EWR. I know that this route is dominated by the 737-800, but CO does use the 757 as well. I hope they continue to use the -200, as I fly this route often when I come home from college. I like the 737NGs but there's nothing like the 757.
 
ksupilot
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:18 am

Quoting CX747 (Reply 30):
It seems to me that the 757 never realized its full potential until it was out of production. I wonder if CO would buy new 757s if the line was open. As others have stated, the replacement Y1 is only a decade away so until then the 737-900ER will "stand in the gap".

100% agree. I'm sure Continental would buy more if the line were reopened, but that will never happen. I just hope for a direct replacement with Y1, not an aircraft that sort of fits into the 757 market, like the -900ER.

In terms of engines, I know widebody engines are out, but for the 757 Y1 replacement, is there a possibility of super-efficient engines in the same class as the current RB211's. So you'll still get that fast climb, bat out of hell takeoff that has made the 757 famous.
 
AirTranTUS
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:29 am

I was thinking about something similar to this last week. What if Boeing made a 787-2. Sinct the aircraft is mostly composite, the usual higher weight for shrunken aircraft won't apply. The 787-2 could be a narrowbody or a widebody, depending on what the airlines want. It would hold between 190 and 230 pax. What does everybody think about a smaller 787?
I love ASO!
 
optionscle
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:34 am

Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 31):
I like that about CO. When looking at the 737-800 and the 757-200, instead of replacing the -200s on domestic routes, CO uses both.

How profitable is it for CO to use a large aircraft like a 757-200 on a route like CLE-EWR. I know that this route is dominated by the 737-800, but CO does use the 757 as well. I hope they continue to use the -200, as I fly this route often when I come home from college. I like the 737NGs but there's nothing like the 757.

CLE-EWR is simply a repositioning flight for an internationally configured 75B. That same ship has just come in on the LGW-CLE inbound flight CO67. A different ship flies EWR-CLE-LGW as CO225/CO66. Just a means of getting some extra utilization out of the airframe.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:39 am

Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 31):
How profitable is it for CO to use a large aircraft like a 757-200 on a route like CLE-EWR. I



Quoting OptionsCLE (Reply 34):
CLE-EWR is simply a repositioning flight for an internationally configured 75B.

Well if CO can sell those BF seats at domestic F or Y fares, it's probably pretty profitable for them.

Quoting AirTranTUS (Reply 33):
What if Boeing made a 787-2. Sinct the aircraft is mostly composite, the usual higher weight for shrunken aircraft won't apply.

It will certainly still apply, it just might not be as bad as if the plane was made from Al. That being said, the 787 really is a big plane - as one person noted, she's around the size of a 767-300. Shrinking her to, say, 767-200 size would still make her a pretty big plane, especially when you calculate her at 9-across (but even at 8-across she'd carry a lot more folks then a 762, to say nothing of a 752).
 
ksupilot
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 12:57 am

I don't think a shrunken 787 could fill the role of a 757. What could is a narrowbody based on the 787 with efficient engines that still have around the same power as the RB211's. The GEnx's are too big, but what about a smaller version? Since Y1 will be higher off the ground, it is likely that more powerful engines will be used, and not something smaller like the current 737 engines.

The 757 replacement cannot be a simple stretch of a smaller aircraft or a shrink of a larger aircraft. In a way Boeing has to design it as a separate project within Y1. It can use the same fuselage as the 737 replacement, but I think different engines are needed. And as someone mentioned before, different landing gear is a distinct possibility as well.

After reading everything here, the ideal Y1 I believe would be this:

Y1-100: Fills the 737-800/900 market. There is no need for Boeing to go smaller, they can either start their own LRJ project, or work with someone else.

Y1-200: Fills the market gap from the 737-900ER to the 757-200. This could be used on long haul domestic routes, and overseas.

Y1-300: Fills the market from the 757-300 all the way to the 787-300.

Not sure if this is the way things will pan out, as this does make Y1 more of a 757 replacement, rather than a 737 replacement. I just don't see the need for Boeing to produce a 737 smaller than the -800. The -700 has been somewhat popular, but most airlines looking to buy a 100 seat aircraft are going with the E-190, not a 737-600. Boeing has to either give this market up, or tackle it with some other project, but not with Y1.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:06 am

Well there is about a 10-15,000lb difference between the 739ER's powerplant and the 752's available powerplants. And there is about a 60,000lb MTOW spread between the two models.

So the larger "Y1-200" might only need about an extra 10,000lbs of thrust if CFRP can bring the largest model's MTOW closer to the 739ER's then the 752's. That will require a larger engine, to be sure, but it might not have to be as large as the RB-211 and her peers, which would allow the Y1 to sit a bit closer to the ground then the 757, which would be important to carriers like WN.
 
dank
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 1:19 am

Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 36):
I don't think a shrunken 787 could fill the role of a 757. What could is a narrowbody based on the 787 with efficient engines that still have around the same power as the RB211's. The GEnx's are too big, but what about a smaller version? Since Y1 will be higher off the ground, it is likely that more powerful engines will be used, and not something smaller like the current 737 engines.

I think, but I could be wrong, that the reason you want bigger engines is that you can make them more efficient, not simply more powerful, but I could be wrong. Also, ideally, they are trying to lower the weight of the replacement series, and hence you won't need as powerful engines.

I think we are going to see something starting at the 73G size and going through something between the 752 and 753. Whether there is enough demand in the 753+ size space to warrant expanding the offering further is beyond me.

cheers.
 
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 2:16 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
the 762 just never proved itself as a great aircraft for airlines. Even CO with it's very new 762s is finding it expensive to operate.

It sure as hell beat the the 707s and DC8s it was designed to replace. It was designed in the early and late 70s as a replacement for first generation jets. To compare it to the performance of todays and near future aircraft is like comparing a Model T to todays F350. It did it's job and performed its mission well. I'm sure it will serve on as automobile engine blocks and other products just as well.
"...left my home in Georgia, 'n headed for the "Frisco" Bay...
 
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 2:40 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 26):
I'm not following your argument here.

A Y1 would also be too long if it was to hold as many pax as the 753. I'm just saying it'll be a bit shorter at max.

Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 31):
How profitable is it for CO to use a large aircraft like a 757-200 on a route like CLE-EWR.

They do it rather than parking it for 7 hours a day.

Quoting MarkATL (Reply 39):
It sure as hell beat the the 707s and DC8s it was designed to replace.

But the 763 soon came and IT proved to be the sweetspot for the 767. The 762 never proved itself as economical enough for airlines. Just because it beat the 707 or DC8 doesn't mean it was the best aircraft.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 2:48 am

Why did Boeing axe the 757 line? From what I've read on a.net, 757's seem to be in demand and second hand 757's are snapped up pretty quickly. What are the chances of Boeing re-opening and updating the 757 line?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 2:53 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 40):
But the 763 soon came and IT proved to be the sweetspot for the 767.

But isn't that the way of stretches?  Smile

Quote:
The 762 never proved itself as economical enough for airlines.

While she only saw 128 sales (and 110 of them were between 1978 and 1981), she was evidently economical enough vs. the DC-10/L-1011 on transcon and hub-to-hub routes for UA, AA, DL, TW, AC and NH (for intra-Japan), who between them bought the majority of those birds.

But yes, the 767-300ERs greater capacity over the 767-200ER made her a better choice for trans-oceanic travel to replace 742s/DC-10s/L-1011s and the market responded with over 500 orders of this type.  checkmark 
 
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:00 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 40):
But the 763 soon came and IT proved to be the sweetspot for the 767. The 762 never proved itself as economical enough for airlines. Just because it beat the 707 or DC8 doesn't mean it was the best aircraft.

I totally agree, my point was the original 767-200 was was not designed for a late 80's mission. The 767-200 was designed in a world of every route being regulated. No massive hubs or ETOPS routes. By the time it was delivered and de-regulation hit the airlines needs changed, and the -300 as you said hit the "sweetspot". The -200 was also clobbered by the 757. With capacity near that of a -200 and not requiring each station to have widebody ground equipment it took off. I think it was eastern that started their "TransCon" service with it (757) and flew from NYC to LAX,SFO and SEA. proving that it was indeed perfect for such longer routes where everyone else was flying domestic half full DC-10s. L-1011s and 747s.

Did AA, UA or AA ever expand beyond their original orders for the -200, or did they all immediatly switch to the -300?
"...left my home in Georgia, 'n headed for the "Frisco" Bay...
 
ikramerica
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:05 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
But isn't that the way of stretches?

Not always. The 753 is a good example, as it came very late in the game but was offered much earlier and nobody wanted it. 739 wasn't a successful stretch either, not until the 739ER at least, and even now it's still proving itself and we won't know until it flies how well it works.

Quoting MarkATL (Reply 43):
my point was the original 767-200 was was not designed for a late 80's mission

Just because a plane was designed for a reason doesn't mean it's therefor the best aircraft.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:05 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 44):
Not always. The 753 is a good example...739 wasn't a successful stretch either, not until the 739ER at least...

I'll spot you the 753, but Boeing should have released the 739ER as the base 739. The 739's capacity was hampered due to a lack of exit doors, making it too close to the 738 but with more weight and less range.  Sad


Quoting MarkATL (Reply 43):
Did AA, UA or AA ever expand beyond their original orders for the -200, or did they all immediatly switch to the -300?

AA did place a follow-on order for 17 762ERs in April of 1985 (and the 763ER two years later), but both DL and UA went to the 763 (763 and 763ER for DL and 763ER for UA).

[Edited 2006-08-29 20:12:55]
 
dank
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:08 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
But isn't that the way of stretches?  

While typically true, that didn't work out for the a330. Nor for the 757, for that matter.

cheers.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:16 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 46):
While typically true, that didn't work out for the a330.

Correct me if I am wrong, but the A330 has yet to be stretched, since the A330-200 was a shrink of the baseline A330-300. And the A332 has sold at least 327 copies and the A333 at least 253, so they seem to be pretty successful to me...
 
dank
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:37 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 47):
Correct me if I am wrong, but the A330 has yet to be stretched, since the A330-200 was a shrink of the baseline A330-300. And the A332 has sold at least 327 copies and the A333 at least 253, so they seem to be pretty successful to me...

In general, shrinks are worse. But I guess it really is a bit odd in the 330 case because Airbus guessed wrong as to which models were the desirable ones. Initially the base models were the 342 and 333, if I recall correctly. So, I honestly don't know which is really the "base" length. If I had some more time I would do a quick calculation to see how much of a shrink the 332 was to the 333 vs. the 318 and 319 to the 320 or the 736 and 73G vs. 738.

cheers.
 
AirEMS
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RE: Can Boeing Ever Replace The 757?

Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:30 am

Quoting B777ER (Reply 12):
Whatever it is, it will not be THE 757 which even if your an Airbus fan, we all love the rocket ride off the runway she gives us...she will be missed by many.

Hell yes on that one! A UA 752 was my first Transcon flight and my first time flying in first class so it will always have a special place with me.  bigthumbsup 

There is nothing like the feel you get in you rear end when the 757 spools up and thunders down the runway. I will miss the 757 when she leaves the skys  worried  ... but at least I still have the 777  wink 

-Carl
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