incitatus
Posts: 2689
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:01 am

Looking through air service planned in 2007 from Narita to US Mainland, I found the majority of service will be provided with 777-200 aircraft.

I counted 32 daily frequencies, plus 4 weekly flights on JAL (1xLAX and 3xJFK). Only 35% of departures will be on 747s, that is, 11 daily flights and the 4 weekly flights on JAL. The other flights are 18 x daily on 777-200s and in the case of Northwest, 3 daily flights on A330-200s. Narita-USA used to be 747 territory.

This is hard evidence of the fracturing of the Pacific market - starting first in Japan because it is the largest and most competitive market. At first this would seem an ideal market for the A380 with a slot constrained airport and large passenger volume with narrow departure windows. But not!

The actual market for passenger A380s seems to be the city-states, like Singapore and Dubai. They lack significant home-country hub competition. They face less competition on local traffic from foreign carriers that have difficulty filling up a flight into the city-state hubs. They can also build volume of low-yield connecting traffic to fill up the hundreds of coach seats. In spite of associating the A380 with luxury, first class suites, gyms, roller-coasters and Starbucks coffee shops, I suspect those airplanes will end up having a larger share of tiny cramped seats.
Stop pop up ads
 
keesje
Posts: 8586
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:12 am

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
Only 35% of departures will be on 747s, that is, 11 daily flights and the 4 weekly flights on JAL.

One can also conclude more then half the passengers flies with the largest available aircraft as has been the case for decades and this is unlikely to change significantly.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:14 am

If you check again, I'm pretty sure some of those are 777-300ER flights, not 772. JL and NH are both sending the 77W to the USA.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
kaitak
Posts: 8933
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:16 am

I'm sure SIA has already said it's going to operate 380s on the SIN-NRT-LAX route? Not right away, of course, but once it has enough aircraft.
 
spacecadet
Posts: 2788
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 3:36 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:31 am

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
plus 4 weekly flights on JAL (1xLAX and 3xJFK).

Can you clarify this? It sounds like you're saying JAL has 4 weekly flights from NRT to the USA. Or are you including their daily flights in your 747 tally?

I think an A380 might work JFK-NRT. On some days they have both flight 5 and flight 47 - both 747's - plus several code-shares with and without connecting flights. Their 747's are almost always full. They could take an A380 instead and just have one flight per day - it doesn't hold two 747's full of people, but they'd be spreading that demand out over a week vs. trying to cram all those people in on 3 days. So they'd be flying 7 flights per week instead of 10 and carrying the same number of passengers for less money.

I personally hope they *don't* go that route, as I just think of JAL as the 747 airline. But they are probably the one airline that could justify this.
I'm tired of being a wanna-be league bowler. I wanna be a league bowler!
 
incitatus
Posts: 2689
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:34 am

Quoting Spacecadet (Reply 4):
Can you clarify this? It sounds like you're saying JAL has 4 weekly flights from NRT to the USA. Or are you including their daily flights in your 747 tally?

JAL has several daily flights. But it also runs an extra 747 a week to LAX and 3 x a week to JFK, continuing to Sao Paulo GRU.
Stop pop up ads
 
hb88
Posts: 760
Joined: Wed Sep 07, 2005 1:25 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:35 am

Sort of in this thread, but does anyone have any thoughts on why the 380 wouldn't be a suitable aircraft for Japanese domestic high-density configuration routes?

I know Airbus a/c are as rare as hens teeth with Japanese carriers, but I don't think I've seen it mentioned anywhere in the media.
 
incitatus
Posts: 2689
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:35 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 1):
One can also conclude more then half the passengers flies with the largest available aircraft as has been the case for decades and this is unlikely to change significantly.

That has changed significantly in other markets such as New York to London. On what basis should we expect that Narita to the US be different?
Stop pop up ads
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 22920
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:40 am

Quoting Hb88 (Reply 6):
Sort of in this thread, but does anyone have any thoughts on why the 380 wouldn't be a suitable aircraft for Japanese domestic high-density configuration routes?

An A380D would haul around a great deal of unnecessary structure, just as the 742SR and 744D did, which led to NH and JL moving to the 773A when it became available. The 773A itself carries around a good deal of unnecessary structure, which is why the 787-3 has been ordered by both carriers.

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
This is hard evidence of the fracturing of the Pacific market - starting first in Japan because it is the largest and most competitive market. At first this would seem an ideal market for the A380 with a slot constrained airport and large passenger volume with narrow departure windows. But not!

The A380 may not become the dominant player between the US and Japan, but I do believe the plane will serve some US markets to and from NRT/KIX.
 
keesje
Posts: 8586
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:46 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 7):
That has changed significantly in other markets such as New York to London.

I think BA and VS have >10 flights daily LHR-NY with 747s.

I think seeing the hugely dominant positions of JAL & ANA from NAR to the US and their special position towards Boeing I think it is to far to draw general conclusion towards Pacific use of the A380 (which is not even in service anywhere).

[Edited 2006-08-31 20:51:47]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 627
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:57 am

NRT and KIX both have very high landing fees that are based on weight, I recall it is on MTOW. The 380 MTOW is substantially larger than the 747, with a higher weight per unit of payload. These costs are pushing the flights from 747's to 777's for the cost difference. It also explains the quick jump to the 787 by ANA and JAL as it is significantly lighter.

Boeing had several 747 models specifically adapted to high volume short haul as the high cycle operation is tough on a plane designed for the long haul. These are starting to be phased out with smaller planes taking over. Also the demand for short haul is dropping because of the bullet train, particularly Tokyo-Osaka and between.

For example the 787-3 is signicantly lighter that the 787-8 but uses the same gear so landing stresses are reduced.
 
LAXintl
Posts: 20183
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:22 am

There has been a structural change in Narita-Japan flying in the last decade amongst the key players in the market.

United for instance has de-emphasized Tokyo to the extent that more and more of its Asia services operate directly compared to previously being routed via NRT. For instance today 5 daily nonstop flights serve China & Korea which used to flow over Tokyo. Other destinations such as Hong Kong continue to receive add'l nonstop US capacity. In turn UA has been operating more and more smaller capacity 777s to Japan and instead emphasizing it as more of a O&D market instead of transit stop. You will see more and more of this in the coming year, especially as the carrier unveils its new alliance with ANA modeled after the Atlantic Alliance it has in place with Lufthansa.

Northwest has seen a reduction in Tokyo capacity as it goes thru its own pains. NWA has traditional been more reliant on lower yield back of the bus traffic partially due to the huge deployment of large capacity 747s across the Pacific. With some routes receiving smaller A330s, while others have seen frequency reductions NWA has seen its Tokyo boarding's drop.

ANA instead has maintained its US network and is actually growing it with the addition of NRT-ORD. What has changed with it is the draw down of its B744 fleet being replaced by 773s.

Japan Air on the other hand has definitely shrunk its NRT-US network with withdrawal completely from some cities such as DFW, ATL, LAS and large reduction in frequencies from others such as LAX (from near 3 daily to only 8 weekly). Japan Air continues to bleed which has seen it refocus on other markets such as China.

In addition some 3rd party carriers that have previsouly operated Narita-USA such as Malaysian and Varig are no longer in the market.

Lastly, as other Asian carriers continue to grow other regional airports such as Seoul, Taipei, Hong Kong are serving as major connection points which at one time was predominantly the domain of Tokyo.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
incitatus
Posts: 2689
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:44 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
I think BA and VS have >10 flights daily LHR-NY with 747s.

They have fewer. Of the 10 daily flights from London to New York on BA, 5 are 747s. And out of the 6 on Virgin, 2 are 747s. London-NY is a huge market with lots of local traffic. But airlines compete on schedule variety, and schedules are not dense enough to warrant more large aircraft.
Stop pop up ads
 
jfk777
Posts: 5812
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:15 am

Narita will see many A380's eventually. The first one will be from Lufthansa, as I heard some where their first A380 route is going to be FRA-NRT. Air France can 't be far behind, CDG-JFK and Montreal are the two first routes but NRT has to be close to third. SIA will eventually fly the monster to NRT, either as SIN-NRT-LAX or simply SIN-NRT-SIN. China Southern, 5 A380's ordered, shoud fly to Tokyo. Thai Airways from Bangkok will fly it to Tokyo just to meet demand. Malaysia & Korean both have it coming, should replace 744 services with it. Emirates should if they get NRT slots, they will sooner or later. The A380 will become as common at NRT with the foreign airlines as the 747's they fly today.

I'm waiting to see if JAL or ANA order the 747-8 or the A380 or just order more 773ER's.
 
centrair
Posts: 2845
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2005 3:44 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:31 am

NRT will see the A380 from Europe and SIN. NRT is a 747 heaven. Seems like almost every other plane landing is a 747. But KIX however, will not see one for a while. It is not slot restricted, loosing service, and has very few 747s now. KIX and NGO will possibly see A380Fs. FedEX is increasing its facility at NGO due to its large cargo apron and business space.

As for a domestic A380 for Japan...not a chance. They are downsizing those to 777s. With JR increasing speeds on the Shinkansen, the time from Central Tokyo to Central Osaka is dropping. If you take in Check-in, boarding, taxi, fly, taxi, and deplaning, the time is not as convienient as a Shinkansen from Tokyo or Shinagawa to Osaka, Kyoto or Kobe. Distance to Airport is a moot topic both ITM and HND are very accessible as they are centrally located.

NOTE: NH launched a new no-paper, no-nothing ticket that only involves the IC card in the NH frequent flyer or credit card. All your flight info is on it. No boarding pass either. The time for getting check-in just got faster! (This is also available via cell phone)
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
User avatar
Aaron747
Posts: 8524
Joined: Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:07 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:54 am

Let's just reemphasize once again for the record: there will be no A380 purchases by NH or JL.
If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
 
centrair
Posts: 2845
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2005 3:44 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:13 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 13):
I'm waiting to see if JAL or ANA order the 747-8 or the A380 or just order more 773ER's.

Even a 747-8 order is kind of hard to see right now. I would go with the later; more 773ERs.

Many airlines will probably bring in A380s to NRT but, when the 2nd runway is extended and slots open up, competition will as well. If KIX and NGO can attract more as well, there will be less connecting in NRT. Just around 15 years ago, if you wanted to take an international flight you really had to go to Tokyo. Now KIX and NGO are attracting business and working with JL and NH to provide feed. This will further eat away at NRT's hold. (More Sendai pax travel via NGO than NRT due to convienient connection and options) Next look for FUK and CTS to attract non-stop long-haul service to new international destinations. Japan is fragmenting. Once Airbus or Boeing come up with an aircraft that can seat around 200 in two classes comfortably and fly 8000nm effectively with good cargo, Japan will start looking like US-Europe.

[Edited 2006-09-01 03:15:41]
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 9728
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 10:43 am

Quoting Incitatus (Thread starter):
The actual market for passenger A380s seems to be the city-states, like Singapore and Dubai. They lack significant home-country hub competition. They face less competition on local traffic from foreign carriers that have difficulty filling up a flight into the city-state hubs. They can also build volume of low-yield connecting traffic to fill up the hundreds of coach seats. In spite of associating the A380 with luxury, first class suites, gyms, roller-coasters and Starbucks coffee shops, I suspect those airplanes will end up having a larger share of tiny cramped seats.

Even in Japan a time will come with current passenger growth trends that more than a 777 or 747 load of passengers will want to leave at the peak periods.

The 380 is not the be all and end all, however trying to use historical or a current schedule when passenger demand is increasing at 5-10% a year to predict the future is a false hypothesis.

Demand will increase across all time slots in a day, some schedules might be better off with a 787, some with a 350, some with a 777, some with a 747, and some with a 380.

The 380 does not fit into all airlines plans today, nor does it fit all routes or city pairs today, to be so bold and say that it will never ever change when passenger growth and demand is so high in my view is very brave.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
User avatar
lightsaber
Crew
Posts: 11728
Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:55 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:42 am

I find it interesting people tend to be very pro A380 or believe there is no market for it. Personally, I think there will be some NRT-US A380's, but only if various freedom rights are being employed. E.g., SIN-NRT-LAX/SFO/JFK is one possibility. NRT-ICN-LAX/SFO/JFK is another.

Do I expect either JL or NH to buy the A380? I doubt it. They seem to be hunkering down for a fragmenting market.

But there will be a market for A380's to the US. I just do not expect them to be operated by US or Japanese based airlines.

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
TimePilot
Posts: 290
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2005 10:40 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:57 am

The only flights I take are from Japan to the US and back, and personally I would be disappointed if JAL went with Airbuses for that. Not to get into argument, but I much more prefer the 747 to any Airbus I've flown on. This is one of the reasons why I fly JAL not ANA: ANA uses Airbuses more (I've also got a zillion FF miles.)

Last year I flew the AA NGO > ORD route on a 777. It was a relief not having to change at NRT. After I came back to Japan I heard that AA had cancelled that route because it was "unprofitable". Indeed JAL is cancelling one of its NRT <> ORD flights as well (now 2 daily.) I just came back on the ORD > NRT flight (the 10:55am one) and it was half empty (summer vacation was over.)

And according to the Wikipedia, JAL has the world's largest fleet of 747s: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines

The 747 is also my favorite plane Big grin
 
CXA330300
Posts: 1256
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 5:51 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 12:14 pm

Have any Japanese carriers bought the A380?

Quoting Spacecadet (Reply 4):
and just have one flight per day

Flight 47 continues to São Paulo.
AC/AA/UA/DL/B6/WN/US*/CO*/FI/BA/IB/AF/SK/LX/Sabena*/TK/LY/SA/MN/SW/AM/CE*/CX/CA/MU/JL/SQ/TG/MH/KA/5J
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 12:16 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 3):
I'm sure SIA has already said it's going to operate 380s on the SIN-NRT-LAX route? Not right away, of course, but once it has enough aircraft.

SQ have said they would prefer to add nonstop capacity rather than upgauge the stopover flights. However, as orders stand right now, it looks like they won't have aircraft available for more nonstops until 2011, so a temporary upgauge seems likely.

Quoting Hb88 (Reply 6):
Sort of in this thread, but does anyone have any thoughts on why the 380 wouldn't be a suitable aircraft for Japanese domestic high-density configuration routes?

The trend in the Japanese domestic market has been JumboJets -> B777s -> B787s.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 16):
Even a 747-8 order is kind of hard to see right now. I would go with the later; more 773ERs.

I would be surprised to see JL or NH order anything as large as the B777-300ER. I expect the B787-10 to be the largest aircraft ordered by a Japanese carrier before the availability of Y3.
 
centrair
Posts: 2845
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2005 3:44 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 12:17 pm

Quoting TimePilot (Reply 19):
ANA: ANA uses Airbuses more (I've also got a zillion FF miles.)

JL has JAS's old A300s and NH has A320s. Unless you are flying domestic on NH you get an Airbus. JL and NH are retiring all their A320s. NH will be 100% Boeing before JL is (The MDs aren't leaving for a while). NH will have a fleet of 737s, 767s (replaced by 787-3s), 787-8s, 777s and 747s (leaving the fleet as well in favor of 773).
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
TokyoNarita
Posts: 556
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2003 5:30 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 12:35 pm

It's quite simple. ANA and JAL would rather not buy the A380s. If they could they would want to avoid it. It would be a tremendous increase in cost to introduce Airbus product to their fleet. However, if the foreign competitors start flashing their A380s to provide new kind of air travel, entertainment, amenities, service and comfort to some of the key destinations from NRT to steal away premium passengers, then it will be a big problem. If JAL and ANA's existing premium product cannot compete effectively with say Virgin, Singapore and Air France's A380s "new" premium product, then they may be forced to take a serious look at it because the majority of the airlines with A380s will undoubtedly bring the equipment to NRT. "IF" that senario was to occur, then I would expect all of JAL and ANA's B747 would dissapear really quick and just be B777s and a handful of A380s for international long hauls.

[Edited 2006-09-01 05:45:19]
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2562
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 12:42 pm

Here are all the NRT-US mainland routes currently (appologies if I missed any)
UA - NRT-JFK - 772 - 1 daily
UA - NRT-ORD - 744+772 - 2 daily
UA - NRT-LAX - 744 - 1 daily
UA - NRT-SFO - 744+772 - 2 daily
UA - NRT-SEA - 772 - 1 daily
NW - NRT-DTW - 744 - 2 daily
NW - NRT-MSP - 744 - 1 daily + extra?
NW - NRT-LAX - 744 - 1 daily
NW - NRT-SFO - 332 - 1 daily
NW - NRT-PDX - 332 - 1 daily
NW - NRT-SEA - 332 - 1 daily + 1 extra weekly
AA - NRT-JFK - 772 - 1 daily
AA - NRT-ORD - 772 - 1 daily
AA- NRT-DFW - 772 - 2 daily
AA - NRT-LAX - 772 - 1 daily
AA - NRT-SJC - 772 - 1 daily
DL - NRT-ATL - 772 - 1 daily
CO - NRT-IAH - 772 - 1 daily
CO - NRT-EWR - 772 - 1 daily

JL - NRT-JFK - 744 - 10 weekly
JL - NRT-ORD - 744 - 2 daily
JL - NRT-LAX - 744 - 8 weekly
JL - NRT-LAS - 744 - 3 weekly
JL - NRT-SFO - 744 - 1 daily
NH - NRT-IAD - 773 - 1 daily
NH - NRT-JFK - 773 - 1 daily
NH - NRT-LAX - 773 - 1 daily
NH - NRT-SFO - 772 - 1 daily

SQ - NRT-LAX - 744 - 1 daily
KE - NRT-LAX - 772 - 1 daily

NRT-SJC by AA & NRT-LAS by JL will be discontinued while NH will add NRT-ORD with 772 & will upgauge the NRT-SFO when the 6th 773ER is delivered.
Of all the above the flights, only SQ11/12 SIN-NRT-LAX-NRT-SIN has the even remote chance of getting an A380.

Off topic, but someone has mentioned the possibility of a A380D. The chances are zero. Why?
Because HND and every other terminal facility that sees 744D action will have to be redesigned. While most Japanese airfields are A380 capable, the domestic gate space at each Japanese airport is designed with the 747-classic wingspan in mind. If one A380 parks at a domestic gate, then three gates will be occupied. While gate space at the regional facilities may not be a problem, this would create an operational nighmare at the bigger domestic airports such as HND, FUK or CTS.

If Airbus can design an A380 with a folding wing design, like that proposed on the 777, it may work. However, I really don't think the Japanese domestic market needs a 800-pax plane. Domestic traffic is seeing very little growth and NH & JL can replace its 744Ds the next decade with a 773 or whatever else is suitable other than an A380D.

To muddle up the picture, it was on the news today that the fourth runway at HND has not gotten started because of continued difficulties in compensation settlements with the local fishermen/fisheries. The construction was slated to start this spring but will surely be next year before any construction starts. It is expected the construction time to be three years with the landfill method, but the floating runway concept has not totally been ruled out.
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1767
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:45 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 12:48 pm

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 7):
That has changed significantly in other markets such as New York to London. On what basis should we expect that Narita to the US be different?

Because it is a much longer segment, where flight scheduling is driven mostly by time zones (would you like to arrive at 3 AM?) Frequency is much less of a consideration than it is between the East Coast and Europe.

Fragmentation can take various forms. Over the Pacific, we will likely see "geographic" fragmentation with more city pairs being flown, but there won't be much "schedule" fragementation between any given city pair.

Narita will therefore see its fair share of A380s, since Tokyo will remain a major destination.
 
TokyoNarita
Posts: 556
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2003 5:30 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 12:53 pm

Speaking of the original topic, the two Japan-U.S. with very possible immediate A380 actions are:

KE 001/002 ICN-NRT-LAX
SQ 012/011 SIN-NRT-LAX

[Edited 2006-09-01 05:55:22]
 
USAJPNflyer
Posts: 90
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2003 6:21 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 12:56 pm

Also a strike against the A380 being used for Japan domestic operations is the recent restriction that four-engine aircraft may no longer be operated from Osaka's Itami airport, due to changes in the noise regulations.

Specifically, all three and four-engine aircraft except B747-400 were banned from April 2005, and the B747-400 was banned from Itami effective April 1, 2006. With one of the major Japanese domestic airports precluded, the A380 does not stand a chance for domestic operations for this and other reasons mentioned by others in this forum.
 
centrair
Posts: 2845
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2005 3:44 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 12:58 pm

Sad to hear that HND didn't get the compensation issue covered. But it seems that the only ones that will be hurt are the newer LCCS and if they want to expand or if additional charters are flown in.

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 24):
but the floating runway concept has not totally been ruled out.

A floating runway? Scary.
"Ah Tower where's the runway?"
"Oh crap! It floated over to Odaiba again."
"Roger: don't hit Fuji TV"
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
elmothehobo
Posts: 965
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2006 11:10 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 1:04 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 24):
If Airbus can design an A380 with a folding wing design, like that proposed on the 777, it may work.

The only thing that I don't agree with you about. Folding wings on an A380 would increase weight significantly. They'd be better off using two gates and increasing turnarounds than trying to a fit a plane that big into a normal sized gate.

The 777's folding wings were purely a "cool gadget," people realized that it just wasn't worthwhile in the real world.
 
sllevin
Posts: 3312
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2002 1:57 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 1:08 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 17):
The 380 is not the be all and end all, however trying to use historical or a current schedule when passenger demand is increasing at 5-10% a year to predict the future is a false hypothesis.

Actually, it's quite telling that as such demand is occuring airlines are downgauging flights out of Narita.

There are more 777's and 330's than ever.

Steve
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 1:40 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 25):
Because it is a much longer segment, where flight scheduling is driven mostly by time zones

That is not true for these routes. Due to the flight duration vs. time zone changes, there is a LOT of room for frequency in the schedules.

JFK-NRT gets you in "3 hours" after you leave, and NRT-JFK gets you in at "the same" hour you leave.

Thus you can have a 10AM JFK-NRT 772 that gets you in at 1pm, then turn that jet at 3pm and get you back to JFK at 3pm, in time to send it on to Europe. A second 772 could leave JFK at 5pm and get you into NRT at 8pm, and leave at 9pm and get into JFK at 9pm. In time for a late run to London.

For a Japanese carrier, they could run a 777 9AM to 9AM into JFK, then 11AM-2PM into NRT. A second 777 could fly 5PM to 5PM into JFK, then 7PM to 10PM back into NRT.

West Coast to NRT is even more interesting. Leave LAX at Noon, arrive at 3:30pm. Leave at 6PM, arrive LAX at noon. You can see how easy it is to add a frequency there by shifting times. A Japanese carrier can fly 2PM out of NRT and arrive 8AM LAX, then leave 10:30AM LAX and arrive NRT back at 2PM. They can do it again at 9PM, arriving LAX at 3PM, leaving LAX at 6PM and arriving NRT at 9:30PM.

Quoting TokyoNarita (Reply 26):
KE 001/002 ICN-NRT-LAX

I find it hard to believe they would increase from a 772 to a 380. That's an 70% jump in capacity or so. If the route was that big, they'd be running a 747 on it.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:05 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 24):
Domestic traffic is seeing very little growth and NH & JL can replace its 744Ds the next decade with a 773 or whatever else is suitable other than an A380D.

JL and NH have already ordered B787-3s to replace the B747-400Ds.

Quoting TokyoNarita (Reply 26):
Speaking of the original topic, the two Japan-U.S. with very possible immediate A380 actions are:

KE 001/002 ICN-NRT-LAX
SQ 012/011 SIN-NRT-LAX

I agree with respect to SQ, but not KE. The main demand for ICN-LAX is nonstop not via NRT. KE is not a major player in the NRT-LAX market. For KE to fill a WhaleJet via NRT would require sacrificial fares.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 9728
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:20 pm

Quoting Sllevin (Reply 30):
Actually, it's quite telling that as such demand is occuring airlines are downgauging flights out of Narita.

There are more 777's and 330's than ever.

That is today, passenger growth will change all that.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 4:48 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 33):

That is today, passenger growth will change all that.

Zeke is right. The A330s and B777s (and the remaining Jumbos) will be replaced by A350s and B787s. There is no reason to believe that the 20 year trend toward smaller jets will not continue. As passenger traffic grows, markets markets fragment and more city pairs are connected, requiring smaller aircraft.
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2562
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:44 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 32):
JL and NH have already ordered B787-3s to replace the B747-400Ds.

In the end, that could be the case but if the fourth runway at HND doesn't open at all, a much larger aircraft solution will be required.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 28):
A floating runway?

Basically its a runway on a very long barge. An experiment in the late-90s was carried out using a barge equipped with 1,000 m of runway and JCAB YS-11s did some tests. Not sure what came out of it.

Quoting TokyoNarita (Reply 26):
KE 001/002 ICN-NRT-LAX

That flight in the past has been operated by 744, just not this year. More likely KE's A380 will be used on direct flights to LAX than on the via NRT route, but you never know five or so years down the line.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 31):

You are correct in that NRT has longer windows of travel opportunity than most Asian cities but there are almost no long-haul flights that arrive at NRT past 1800. The last one is typically the AF flight from CDG that arrives at 1800 in the summer and 1900 in the winter. The late arrivals flights (1900 and later) are regional or from Oceania/Australia.
I see your logic in decreasing aircraft down time at NRT but 10PM arrival would hardly be an ideal time to arrive at NRT or any int'l flight into Japan. For starters, if the flight ran anything more than one hour late, the NRT curfew would fall. Next, even you did arrive at 2200 or later, there would be no trains left running all the way to Tokyo. Of course, JR & other train companies could adjust its train schedule but not for the entire metro area which typically shutsdown just past midnight, so train connections would be limited. Thus the last scheduled passenger flight is the CX flight from HKG that arrive at around 2115.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 5:52 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 35):
Thus the last scheduled passenger flight is the CX flight from HKG that arrive at around 2115.

That's amazing for such an international city.

But honestly, those were just examples. You could shift the afternoon flights earlier by 2 hours without much hassle. I'm not proposing you use the same jet on both roundtrips, as a delay would pile on.

Of course, a small NRT airline like CO or DL wouldn't want to do this, as they would have to staff NRT all day. If they had more frequencies, they would be closer together.

But JL and NH could do it as they already staff NRT all day. And AA, NW or UA also have more flights into NRT and could afford to staff the airport longer.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 9728
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:13 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 34):
Zeke is right. The A330s and B777s (and the remaining Jumbos) will be replaced by A350s and B787s. There is no reason to believe that the 20 year trend toward smaller jets will not continue. As passenger traffic grows, markets markets fragment and more city pairs are connected, requiring smaller aircraft.

Zvezda is right. Airlines have unlimited funds and crews and airports keep being built that have unlimited slots, and population and centres of commerce are constantly moving away from major international destinations to smaller destinations that cannot fill a 757 load today.

The outstanding success of the A340-500 & 772LR are perfect examples of how market fragmentation of direct point to point service are taken up with gusto by passengers.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
keesje
Posts: 8586
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:20 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 34):
There is no reason to believe that the 20 year trend toward smaller jets will not continue.

The bigger versions of the 787 seem to be the most popular, airlines go for 9 abreast, Boeing considers to pull the -10 forward. B772ER aren't selling anymore the -300ER's are popular. Boeing is stretching the 747-8i further because on customer reuirements. Read between the lines & you'll notice BA, JAL and CX are considering A380s short term. All current customers considering follow-on orders. The A350 has grown bigger. Airlines are changing their 737/A320 orders for bigger variants everywhere, Boeing launched the 737-900ER. The regional market is collapsing, except the bigger ones.

..

Zvezda, this trend towards smaller jets.. are we looking at the same world?

I think the number of long haul city pairs will grow say 50% in the next 20 years. Traffic however will tripple and hub-hub, high frequency, mass transport will take care of a large part of this growth.

Connections, frequency & cost / price being major drivers in today network environment. One extra hub in a network & the number of city pairs explodes again. Look at the consolidation / airline alliances: all connecting networks via major hubs.

I think the airspace above the Pacific will be stuffed with A380's in ten years, with or without NAR being part of it. And yes JAL I believe will buy the A380, economics / network reality dictates so. They won't replace all their 100 747s with smaller aircraft in a trippling, slot restricted world, just won't happen.

They'll buy a couple of billion Boeing/ Lockheed equipment (F22/748F/JSF/777/787-10) to neutralize the US political lobby & prevent them from having to buy 747-8i 's. Then they'll order 20-25 A380-800/900s they need not to be overshadowed by the rest of the pack.

 Wink

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00007306.jpg

 Smile
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
cobra27
Posts: 939
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:57 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 6:42 pm

What a news. You really wouldn't expect something this revolutionary on this form. Just consider this that no Japan airline ordered the A380 and they make 33% of 787. That makes them a lot more business
 
COSPN
Posts: 1535
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 6:33 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 7:12 pm

Well Light SABER,
Gordon Bethune former CEO of CO has Said there are some routes like LHR-DEL for the A380 , Just no routes CO can use it for
 
TokyoNarita
Posts: 556
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2003 5:30 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 8:43 pm

Quote:
I agree with respect to SQ, but not KE. The main demand for ICN-LAX is nonstop not via NRT. KE is not a major player in the NRT-LAX market. For KE to fill a WhaleJet via NRT would require sacrificial fares.



Quote:
That flight in the past has been operated by 744, just not this year. More likely KE's A380 will be used on direct flights to LAX than on the via NRT route, but you never know five or so years down the line.

Well, it is true that KE's NRT-LAX has been downgraded to a B777 from a B747 but I am not sure if you can call all of that "lack of demand" I wouldn't certainly say KE is not a "major player" The route probably has more history than ANA's NRT-LAX and it has proven success with B747s for many many years. They have operated this route for decades. Currently, it has been served with a B777 partially because KE sends mostly B777s for ICN-NRT. The frequency and the convenience is really what matters for this route. Perhaps they are able to take advantage of the short runway in NRT with B777s to operate more flights between NRT-ICN. Therefore NRT-LAX is also a B777. HND-ICN is where they really "require" B747s due to slot issues and the demands are sky high over there because nobody wants to spend two hours to get to NRT when the flight to ICN takes just about the same. With all of these things considered, B777 is the right equipment for most NRT ops.

Like I said, I have seen pictures of A380's cabin being luxurious and spacious, possibly offering new amenities to the current air travel. If all of that becomes a reality, NRT-LAX would be one of the perfect places to put it, ruining everybody else's game in this very competive route. I would venture out to say KE along with SQ, would be able to take a lot of premium passengers away from the existing Japanese and the American carriers that operate this route. Japanese are also suckers for new products.

TokyoNarita.

[Edited 2006-09-01 14:00:48]
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 9:35 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
The bigger versions of the 787 seem to be the most popular

Orders so far:
B787-3: 43
B787-8: 275
B787-9: 50

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
Boeing considers to pull the -10 forward.

Boeing have been talking publicly about the B787-10 for about a year now, but haven't launched it yet.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
B772ER aren't selling anymore

Because the airlines are buying B787-8s instead.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
the -300ER's are popular.

Yes, The B777-300ERs are popular as JumboJet replacements.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
Read between the lines & you'll notice BA, JAL and CX are considering A380s short term.

No. That's just wishful thinking on your part.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
All current customers considering follow-on orders.

Certainly not. MH is considering a follow-on WhaleJet order???

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
The A350 has grown bigger.

The A350 is still smaller than the B777, its competitor.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
Boeing launched the 737-900ER.

At the same time, Boeing ended the B757.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
The regional market is collapsing, except the bigger ones.

Due to high fuel prices, turboprops are winning the sales that RJs were winning a few years ago.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
Zvezda, this trend towards smaller jets.. are we looking at the same world?

It has long seemed that you and I don't live on the same planet.
 
incitatus
Posts: 2689
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:49 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 25):
Fragmentation can take various forms. Over the Pacific, we will likely see "geographic" fragmentation with more city pairs being flown, but there won't be much "schedule" fragementation between any given city pair.

I disagree with that. Check out the schedules of Cathay Pacific to LAX. the flights are nicely distributed over the day. People have different needs and even business travelers wanting to get home 16 hours away prefer to get to on the first flight available instead of waiting for the single departure in the middle of the day.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 25):
Narita will therefore see its fair share of A380s, since Tokyo will remain a major destination.

Notice I never stated that Narita won't see A380 movements. My comments were about Narita-USA only.
Stop pop up ads
 
incitatus
Posts: 2689
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:49 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Fri Sep 01, 2006 11:51 pm

Quoting Zeke (Reply 17):
The 380 is not the be all and end all, however trying to use historical or a current schedule when passenger demand is increasing at 5-10% a year to predict the future is a false hypothesis.

What is the better alternative then... To guess?
Stop pop up ads
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 22920
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Sat Sep 02, 2006 2:07 am

Quoting CXA330300 (Reply 20):
Have any Japanese carriers bought the A380?

No, and while I will never say "never", I find it unlikely they well. That said, I also find it unlikely they will buy the 747-8I, as well.

Quoting Zeke (Reply 17):
The 380 does not fit into all airlines plans today, nor does it fit all routes or city pairs today, to be so bold and say that it will never ever change when passenger growth and demand is so high in my view is very brave.

 thumbsup 

Quoting Zeke (Reply 17):
Even in Japan a time will come with current passenger growth trends that more than a 777 or 747 load of passengers will want to leave at the peak periods.

I wonder if NRT can loosen up their slots a bit, combined with smaller, efficient planes like the 787 and A350XWB that would make new non-stop routes more economically feasible, if the need for larger four-holers like the 747 and A380 family will be as strong?

Again, I am not saying NRT will never see an A380. But I wonder if the need for one will be as strong as at an airport like LHR or FRA... It may be more likely it would be airlines like SQ and QF using it to link Australia to Japan and LH using it to link Europe and Japan more then JL/NH/UA/NW/SQ using it to link Japan to North and South America.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 21):
I would be surprised to see JL or NH order anything as large as the B777-300ER. I expect the B787-10 to be the largest aircraft ordered by a Japanese carrier before the availability of Y3.

I assume you mean going forward, since both NH and JL are taking deliveries of 773ERs right now.
 
User avatar
zeke
Posts: 9728
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:42 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Sat Sep 02, 2006 2:13 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 44):
What is the better alternative then... To guess?

The better alternative is to continue to monitor the market, not to rule anything out and to keep an open mind.

To me ruling out an aircraft based the information above is like the comments Bill Gates made in 1981, "640K ought to be enough for anybody", or like what the President and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation said in 1977, "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home".

The 380 is new technology and a new way of conducting business, when airlines learn how to use this business tool it will become apparent what impact the technology will have in the industry.

In my view that sort of comment one looks back on in 10 years a sees how off the mark they were.

No one in the industry knows exactly how the market will develop next year, let alone 5 or 10 years time. If they could everyone would know exactly how many aircraft to make, and how many crews to train.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
DAYflyer
Posts: 3546
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Sat Sep 02, 2006 2:42 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 1):
One can also conclude more then half the passengers flies with the largest available aircraft as has been the case for decades and this is unlikely to change significantly.

Or one can say that they have replaced the 747 with more efficient 777 and they have added destinations, so the A-380 is no longer required or practicle.
One Nation Under God
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:06 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
The bigger versions of the 787 seem to be the most popular

As pointed out, that's not true.

Quoting TokyoNarita (Reply 41):
The frequency and the convenience is really what matters for this route.

Wow, where have we heard that before?

Even at slot controlled NRT, KE has decided to fly more 777s more frequently than fly 747s...

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 43):
Notice I never stated that Narita won't see A380 movements. My comments were about Narita-USA only.

Exactly. NRT will most surely see a bunch of A380s. They just won't be coming to the USA from there...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Narita To The US: Not A Market For The A380

Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:17 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 45):

I assume you mean going forward, since both NH and JL are taking deliveries of 773ERs right now.

Right. I did write orders, not deliveries. I didn't mean to suggest that B777-300ER orders would be cancelled.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 787fan8, 817Dreamliiner, belfordrocks, Bing [Bot], blackbox67, G500, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], gregn21, jetblastdubai, Johnwaynebobbet, moo, OA940, Prost, rutankrd, SCQ83, tespai, TK787, Tristarsteve, UAinAUS, woodcutting, Yahoo [Bot] and 283 guests