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JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:36 pm

Hi everyone,
I know there have been already threads about launching customer for the 747-8 in pax version. I don't know if JAL will be, but don't you think that they are likely to order the 747-8 in pax version? I wouldn't be surprised if they do. JAL is and always was the largest 747 operator in the world, with BA (which we talked about already), and was also an early customer for the 747 when launched almost 40 years ago. With already the 787 on order, I woudn't be surprised at all if they choose the 747-8 over the A380, Boeing might give JAL a good deal. I think JAL wants to go all Boeing. I'm sure there is a market for the 747-8 in the Pacific Rim.

Ben Soriano
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VTBDflyer
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:52 pm

I think its a possibility that they would be a launch customer. But they are having some trouble with some of their long haul routes. I think they have canceled some double routes, that were doing very poorly. So on that note, they would need to focus on high density long haul routes.
I would love to see JL with the 747-8.

VTBDflyer

[Edited 2006-09-02 15:54:36]
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jfk777
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:28 pm

Jal is replacing some 744 with 773ER's. I think they will eventually have to order 747-8 or less likely A380. I do think with the slot situation at NRT they need bigger airplanes then the 773ER. I know NRT has opened a second runway but its limited for use to smaller airplanes. I think a big bird will be needed to Hawaii, LAX, LHR, JFK, CDG, SFO, HKG & Peking. This airplane will be bigger then the 773ER. From a competitive angle, all the airlines offering A380 and 747-8 at NRT with the latest gizmos will effect JAL .
 
Avatordon
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:40 pm

When the 4th runway opens at HND, there will be additional slots open for domestic and international (that is, near-Asia) flying. JAL is is gearing up to focus on frequency rather than operating one or two large aircraft in a market. We've been told that eventually the 777 will replace the 747 aircraft to the U.S.
 
United Airline
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:52 pm

JAL needs something bigger than the B 777 for many routes. So I would say yes. And I doubt USA-Japan will go all B 777
 
Avatordon
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 2:12 am

What routes would you say need 747 versus 777?
 
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:31 am

JL will not order the B747-800, but will go indeed for frequency increasement with smaller aircraft to get better loads. B744 will mainly be replaced by 773ER and 772ER. Most European routes all go to B772ER/773ER. Also US will mainly become served by 777's. When the 787's will be delivered to JL, they will mainly fly to Asian destinations. A large sum of 744's will be converted to all cargo freighters at Taeco/XMN.
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LTU932
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:37 am

Quoting Airbuseric (Reply 6):
JL will not order the B747-800

Well, it doesn't have to be only for PAX, however I still think that given the current slot restrictions, JL might buy the 747-8I. If they don't buy it, they might have to wait until the second runway has finally been extended at NRT for them to increase frequencies.
 
cslusarc
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:42 am

Here's the deal, JL will order the 747-8I. Due the the near- and long-term economic situation in Japan and the poor fiscal condition of the JAL Group we will not see JL operate the 747-8I until the middle of the next decade when they will replace retiring 747-4s. JL still flies a lot of early 1980s vintage aircraft including the 747-2 and 747-3. Until the JAL Group retires all of the 747-2s and 747-3s, I highly doubt that JL will order any 747-8Is.
--cslusarc from YWG
 
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 3:48 am

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 7):
Well, it doesn't have to be only for PAX, however I still think that given the current slot restrictions, JL might buy the 747-8I. If they don't buy it, they might have to wait until the second runway has finally been extended at NRT for them to increase frequencies.

B747-800 Cargo for JL, also a big No. JL just made the choice to convert a bunch of their own pax 744's to converted freighter over the coming years. At the moment, the second one is having conversion and will be re-delivered in Dec-06.
Construction works for the extended 2nd runway 16L-34R are going on already. JL will wait. HND will become international too from next year, and a couple of important flights (like BJS, HKG, HNL, ORD) are most likely to move to HND. The slots of this flight become free to use for any other JL flight out of NRT, so they can expand in 2 ways then.
"The whole world steps aside for the man who knows where he is going"
 
jfk777
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:14 am

Jal does have some 743's but it does have many 777 too. 773ER or 747-8 will replace the 744's.
 
MCOflyer
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:18 am

I guessing both the 748 and 773ER.

MCOflyer
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Adria
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:08 am

Well JAL would order just about anything as long it is a Boeing. So if they don't order the 748 than this aircraft really is inferior.
 
Avatordon
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:25 am

Adria - think I might make you a respected user for that one!
 
jacobin777
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:45 am

Quoting Adria (Reply 12):
Well JAL would order just about anything as long it is a Boeing. So if they don't order the 748 than this aircraft really is inferior.

that's right, JL must purchase every single Boeing product on the market and if doesn't get the JL seal of approval, its an inferiour product........what a brilliant comment... sarcastic 
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Avatordon
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:54 am

Maybe JAL is one of Boeing's largest customers and has great respect for the end product and a solid working relationship with Boeing. It has been known to happen...  Big grin
 
centrair
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:56 am

Increased competition from outside Tokyo has lead JL to think about offering non-stops from those stations. The need for everyone in Japan to go through NRT to get an international flight is starting to disappear. Frequency to points are on JL's list of things to do. The 747-8 could be seen but it is low on the list I think. Look for JL to start more non-stop from KIX, NGO and even from FUK or CTS.
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
Adria
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:04 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 14):
that's right, JL must purchase every single Boeing product on the market and if doesn't get the JL seal of approval, its an inferiour product........what a brilliant comment...

well since you didn't get my point (or your hobby is to twist around comments) ...JAL is a true Boeing airline ( the 783 is just for them) so when an airline like that doesn't order the aircraft that would probably suit their needs (in terms of capacity) than there is something wrong with the aircraft...so now you have some more words to twist around
 
United Airline
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:35 am

Routes like NRT-LAX, NRT-YVR, NRT-HKG, NRT-SYD, NRT-LHR etc are full from time to time.

Anyway the B 747-400s will remain in the fleet for a long time to come and will not be replaced anytime soon.

What about the B 747 classics? How many years do they plan to keep them? Another 3-5 years?
 
don
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 10:52 am

Quoting United Airline (Reply 18):
What about the B 747 classics? How many years do they plan to keep them? Another 3-5 years?

JAL has 29 747 classics ( 20 pax and 9 freighters) as of now but it will be down to 22 total by 31 March 2007 and then ZERO by 31 March 2010.

This phase out is 3-4 years earlier than JAL's original long term fleet planning due to higher fuel cost.
 
jacobin777
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:42 am

Quoting Adria (Reply 17):
well since you didn't get my point (or your hobby is to twist around comments) ...JAL is a true Boeing airline ( the 783 is just for them) so when an airline like that doesn't order the aircraft that would probably suit their needs (in terms of capacity) than there is something wrong with the aircraft...so now you have some more words to twist around



Quoting Adria (Reply 12):
Well JAL would order just about anything as long it is a Boeing. So if they don't order the 748 than this aircraft really is inferior.

Would you care to explain what word/words/phrase I "twisted" around?
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United Airline
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:48 am

Wonder if they will keep the classics a bit longer
 
eraugrad02
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 12:53 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 21):
Wonder if they will keep the classics a bit longer



Quoting Don (Reply 19):
JAL has 29 747 classics ( 20 pax and 9 freighters) as of now but it will be down to 22 total by 31 March 2007 and then ZERO by 31 March 2010.

This phase out is 3-4 years earlier than JAL's original long term fleet planning due to higher fuel cost.

Answer your question? This was just 2 quotes above yours bro.
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zvezda
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:31 pm

JL have been downgauging their fleet to increase frequency in order to increase yields. I don't expect them to suddenly reverse themselves. To justify a larger aircraft, it would have to have a large advantage in CASM. Since the B787-10 and the B747-8 SuperJumbo have similar CASM, I can't see much about the SuperJumbo to interest JL.
 
MCOflyer
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:30 pm

I'm guessing JL will order the 787 or the 748. If JL were to order the 783 it would be used on intra Japan routes right? The 787 series would be great for JL.

I hope JL orders the 787, and 748I.

MCOflyer
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manni
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 4:40 pm

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 24):
I'm guessing JL will order the 787 or the 748. If JL were to order the 783 it would be used on intra Japan routes right? The 787 series would be great for JL.

I hope JL orders the 787, and 748I.

You'll be happy to hear that JAL ordered 30 787's about 2 years ago.  Wink
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ordryan28
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 5:22 pm

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 24):
I hope JL orders the 787, and 748I.



Quoting Manni (Reply 25):

You'll be happy to hear that JAL ordered 30 787's about 2 years ago.

yep, dunno where you were...

but, anyway, I think it's quite obious JL being the world's largest 747 operator, they will order the 748. although what they have now doesnt have any impact on their future, I expect JL to place an order through boeing much sooner than Airbus.

-Ryan
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 5:37 pm

To throw a wrench into the mix, the fourth runway at HND has not yet begun work neither has the extension to the second runway at NRT. The latter work will be initiated shortly but the former will not happen until at the earliest next year, as negotiations are not going as well with the local fishermen/fishieries on compensation.

To complicate things more, JL has announced 747 classic withdrawal by end of 2010 but they only have two or four 773ERs on outstanding order and not enough 748s will arrive in time to replace the remaining 747 classics. On tops of this is the slow withdrawal of 744 passenger aircraft as they convert them into freighters. It seems its short term fleet policy would be the following:
1. Order 777s in large quantities for delivery starting in 2008
2. Downsize greatly to the 787
3. Elimination of more loss-making routes.
 
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airbuseric
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:18 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 27):
To complicate things more, JL has announced 747 classic withdrawal by end of 2010 but they only have two or four 773ERs on outstanding order and not enough 748s will arrive in time to replace the remaining 747 classics. On tops of this is the slow withdrawal of 744 passenger aircraft as they convert them into freighters. It seems its short term fleet policy would be the following:
1. Order 777s in large quantities for delivery starting in 2008
2. Downsize greatly to the 787
3. Elimination of more loss-making routes.

That's the story indeed. USA and European flights will switch to 777's (both -200ER and -300ER). Some high density routes or seasonal flights will remain on 744.
Asian flights will mainly be operated by 787's.
Cargo will change to a fleet of all 74Y (JA401J/402J) and 744BCF only.
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PEK18R36L
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:49 pm

Look for JAL to start shifting larger equipment to PEK and PVG and absolutely building new routes into FUK, NGO, etc.

IIRC Obon and Lunar New Year tour traffic ex Japan is getting heavy enough to use 747s.

BTW - delays on the fourth runway notwithstanding, any word on whether JL is planning on shifting NRT-KOA to HND-KOA? This would be sweet for us if we could connect PEK-HND-KOA for a range of reasons.

David
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LPLAspotter
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:32 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 14):
that's right, JL must purchase every single Boeing product on the market and if doesn't get the JL seal of approval, its an inferiour product........what a brilliant comment...

Now that deserves my respected user's list

LPLAspotter

[Edited 2006-09-03 13:34:45] Edited for spelling

[Edited 2006-09-03 13:36:36]

[Edited 2006-09-03 13:37:40]
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keesje
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:36 pm

I think other then operational qualifications will stay decisive in the end, no matter how much we all dislike it.

Aerospace being the only substantial tool to activey do something on Japans´trade deficit. Transpacific hell would brake loose if JAL tries to buy a large Airbus fleet.

Apart from that large parts of Boeing´s aircraft are made in Japan. Not buying those products would be highly unfortunate, unrealistic & putting unneccesary strain on the long term good trans pacific relations.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
jacobin777
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:08 am

Quoting LPLAspotter (Reply 30):

Now that deserves my respected user's list

thank you very much..... Smile
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jfk777
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 12:58 am

747-8 or 773ER to replace the 747 classics.
 
ordryan28
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 1:28 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 33):

well, that, and, by the time their 748's arrive (if they do in fact place an order), I assume it would be time to replace their 744's as well??

-Ryan
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ha763
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:48 am

Quoting Airbuseric (Reply 28):
Cargo will change to a fleet of all 74Y (JA401J/402J) and 744BCF only.

You need to add the 767F since they ordered 4 of them in 2005 to be used to Asian destinations (mostly China).

Quoting PEK18R36L (Reply 29):
absolutely building new routes into FUK, NGO, etc.

I can see building up routes from NGO, but not FUK. JAL has cut routes out of FUK.
 
ordryan28
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 3:51 am

Quoting Ordryan28 (Reply 34):
by the time their 748's arrive

yes, this is certainly a first, I'm quoting myself! anyway, I meant if they order the 748, of course...
Whoever said winning is not everything never fought cancer.
 
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Stitch
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:03 am

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 27):
It seems (JLs) short term fleet policy would be the following:
1. Order 777s in large quantities for delivery starting in 2008
2. Downsize greatly to the 787
3. Elimination of more loss-making routes.

If the situation was so...dire...do you think that JL would already have ordered additional 777s or 747s (of any variant) to meet the need? Perhaps the 13 787-3s and 17 787-8s are sufficient for the near term?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 31):
I think other then operational qualifications will stay decisive in the end, no matter how much we all dislike it...

While probably true at some level, even if it wasn't, if the JL situation is as serious as the feeling I am getting from Carpethead, then what could Airbus offer them? The A380 would not be available until after 2009 (even before the latest delivery delays) and the A350-1000 won't be available until the mid-2010s. The A330 and A340 (especially) wouldn't be viable options since JL already has a large 777 fleet which would be cheaper to build on then bringing in a new family. JL's only real option at the moment is Boeing, regardless of how MITI might influence (or not influence) their buying decision.

Honestly, for JL to buy A330s/A340s/A380s now would truly be a politically-motivated decision...
 
keesje
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 4:12 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
Honestly, for JL to buy A330s/A340s/A380s now would truly be a politically-motivated decision...

I think to replace part of their 747 fleet with the A380 wouldn´t be irrational, as wouldn´t be A330s, half Asia flies them regional because of their superior CASM, most next to 777´s.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Stitch
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 6:42 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 38):
I think to replace part of their 747 fleet with the A380 wouldn´t be irrational, as wouldn´t be A330s, half Asia flies them regional because of their superior CASM, most next to 777´s.

Well JL now has the "luxury" of having to wait till 2009 for the 747-8 and even later for the A380 (when do slots open now? 2010? 2011?), so they at least can get hard in-service data on the former for a few years and extrapolate pretty good data on the latter based on their own 744 experiences.

As for the A330, they might be able to get them as early as their 787-8s (2008) and, if they want them, 787-9s (2009), but the 787's going to be a better plane, so they might as well wait at this point.
 
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Stitch
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 8:59 am

Did JL ever express interest in the 747-500, 747-600, or 747-X? Or even the 747-Advanced for that matter?

JL may just not feel they need a plane greater then ~350 seats, matching capacity to "positive revenue" demand and leaving the "cheap seats" behind.
 
centrair
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:06 am

Quoting Ha763 (Reply 35):
JAL has cut routes out of FUK

One...too many large aircrafts. JL's fleet was designed for NRT. It was designed so that everyone in Japan or coming to Japan would fly through slot restricted NRT. Expansion of KIX, NGO, FUK and CTS rely on crafts smaller than a 747. You can't fill a 744 on a long-haul flight from FUK easily. You need something with range to reach the US or Europe and the size of a 767.

Two...JL basically handed FUK to KE and OZ. It is cheaper, easier and quicker to take a long-haul via ICN than NRT. Hell its only a 2 hour ferry boat to Korea from Fukuoka. ICN is 45 minutes and offers many options at a lower price compared to NRT. If JL were to offer long-haul non-stop with a smaller aircraft at a competative price, they could get more out of it.

Some interesting population data
Japan 127 million people
Kanto region (NRT/HND) 40 million people.
Kansai region (KIX/ITM) 24 million people.
Chubu region (NGO/NKM) 17 million people.
Kyushu region (FUK/KKJ) 14 million people.
Tohoku region (SDJ) 9.8 million people.
Hokkaido region (CTS) 5 million people.
Shikoku region (MYJ) 4.1 million people.
Hokuriku region (KMQ/KIJ) 4 million people.
Okinawa region (OKA) 1.3 million people.
(Missing 8 million people somewhere...Chugoku region maybe.)

How does that population travel.
Kanto and Tohoku use NRT for International long-haul. Tohoku also use NGO as it offers one building transfer versus transfering at HND and train to NRT.
Kansai, Chugoku and Shikoku use KIX or will fly via NRT (new option). Shikoku residents can also fly via NGO. However long-haul options exist, cheaper is via ICN.
Chubu and Hokuriku use NGO (Asian Regional few long-haul) and NRT via NGO for options. Some people in western Chubu will use KIX if the cost is competitive. Hokuriku will also use ICN if price is competitive.
Hokkaido will use KIX, NRT, or NGO depending on price (NRT wins out). ICN and PEK are also an options that offer cheaper flights.
Kyushu residents will fly via KIX, NGO, NRT or ICN. ICN actually has taken more away from Japanese airports. It is the regional competitor.
Okinawa residents will fly via whatever airport is cheapest and gets them to where they want to go easiest. This could be KIX, NGO, NRT or ICN.

NRT sees a lot of 747s. Yet KIX and NGO do not. Here at NGO the only 747s are operated by NW To DTW and MNL(744s) and JL to HNL, OKA and FUK (744D and 743). NH's largest is a 767. We do see more 747 cargo though.

NRT's biggest threat is not NGO or KIX but ICN. It has more runways, a newer facility, 24 hour ops, more connections, and cheaper landing fees making it more attractive. So why is KE looking at larger planes? So they can carry people to ICN and put them on 737s and fly them all over the region.

We have a declining birthrate, poor distribution of investment across the nation, stagnant incomes, and a decrease in long-haul international travel capacity. Regional Asia and domestic travel has increased quite a bit in the past few years but flying to Europe and the US are farther down the list.

Take in all these factors and you can imagine that JL has limited reasons to buy the 747-8. Maybe they need a few but not in the large numbers of the past. It is not feasible. Japanese want to travel from their local airports to their destination. Tokyo is a mess and no fun (unless you are star alliance).

[Edited 2006-09-04 03:15:14]
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
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Stitch
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:09 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 41):
Here at NGO it is NW To DTW and MNL, JL to HNL, OKA and FUK (744D and 743).

Don't forget UA's daily 777 to SFO!  Wink
 
centrair
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Mon Sep 04, 2006 10:12 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
Don't forget UA's daily 777 to SFO!

Sorry if I wasn't clear I was refering to 747s only.
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
Carpethead
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 9:14 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
Honestly, for JL to buy A330s/A340s/A380s now would truly be a politically-motivated decision...

JL is a private company. They can order what ever aircraft that pleases them and their shareholders. If they order the former two models, you can expect all the execs heads to roll and MHI and every aerospace company and sub-contractor in Japan will blacklist JL on the fly list.
 
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Stitch
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RE: JAL Likely To Order The 747-8?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:11 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 43):
Sorry if I wasn't clear I was refering to 747s only.

My bad.  Smile

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 44):
JL is a private company. They can order what ever aircraft that pleases them and their shareholders.

Absolutely. My point was more that for JL to order the A330 and A340 when they already have the 777 in their fleet and the 787 coming soon would make no sense (at least to me) from a financial standpoint and therefore should not please the shareholders.  Smile

As for the A380, since JL can not get them anytime soon (before the 747-8 is available), "due dilligence" (the lack of which should also not please the shareholders) requires them to at least wait to see how the A380 does in service and the final numbers Boeing comes up with for the 747-8 post-flight test are extrapolated against JL's own vast database on 747 operations before they make a decision either way (or for either one, at all).

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