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kc135topboom
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Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:43 pm

LH is ripe for a renewed long haul fleet moderninaztion. It looks like they just got a great deal on the A-330-200 from Airbus because of the A-380-800 delays.

But, getting the new A-330s and A-380s is not enough to begin fleet replacement on the older B-747-400s and A-340-300s at LH. The way I see it, LH could order up to 30 new B-747s. They may even consider ordering some B-747-800Fs?

Is Boeing in a good position to offer the B-747-800I to LH with deliveries beginning in 2010? LH would become a launch customer and be able to greatly influence the final design.

If LH ordered the B-747-8I, would that begin a small number of orders (each) from QF, NZ, UA, JL, and possibly BA and NW?
 
United Airline
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:46 pm

Not sure but when it comes to B 747-400 replacement, I think LH will order the B 747-8 to replace their B 747-400s
 
zvezda
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:47 pm

I don't see NZ, UA, JL, or NW ordering anything as large as the B747-8. LH, QF, and BA are possibilities.
 
United Airline
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 10:56 pm

NZ and UA have expressed interest in the B 747-8. Also many of JL, NW's routes require the size of the B 747-8. I believe the airlines you mentioned above are potential B 747-8 buyers
 
zvezda
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:03 pm

Quoting United Airline (Reply 3):
many of JL, NW's routes require the size of the B 747-8.

JL and NW operate all of their routes using aircraft smaller than the B747-8.
 
cobra27
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:04 pm

I think LH is looking at 747-8 only to get more A380 cheaper. The 747-8F could be in the game for lufthansa cargo since they have only MD-11
 
zvezda
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:06 pm

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 5):
I think LH is looking at 747-8 only to get more A380 cheaper.

Are you suggesting that LH will leave a gap in their fleet between the A340-600 and the WhaleJet?
 
boeingguy1
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:06 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 4):
JL and NW operate all of their routes using aircraft smaller than the B747-8.

I think what he was trying to say that JL and NW utilize their 744s on the routes that the 748 would potentially replace.
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DLKAPA
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:07 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 4):
JL and NW operate all of their routes using aircraft smaller than the B747-8.

Technically every airline in the world operates all of their routes using aircraft smaller than the 748.
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zvezda
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:10 pm

Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 8):
Technically every airline in the world operates all of their routes using aircraft smaller than the 748.

That's right. Therefore saying that any route "requires" an aircraft the size of the B747-8 is demonstrably false. Routes require an aircraft with a minimum range, but not a minimum size.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:12 pm

I bet 90% of the 747-8I orders will be frieghters for the next 5 years.
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columba
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:14 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 10):
I bet 90% of the 747-8I orders will be frieghters for the next 5 years.

I highly doubt that all delivered 747-8Is will be converted into 747-8Fs  Wink
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DAYflyer
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:22 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 11):
I highly doubt that all delivered 747-8Is will be converted into 747-8Fs

Sorry. I meant that 90% of all 747-8's would be of the F variety.
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LTU932
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:24 pm

LH is certainly looking at it, and given their continued interest (LH said that they wanted that plane 10 years ago), I'd say if they don't order the 747-8 now, they'll eventually order it. It would be the perfect gapfiller.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:55 pm

LH originally rejected the 747-X in favor of the A380. After the passenger traffic drop-offs post-9/11 and post-SARS, LH expressed interest in the 747-X because they feared they might be flying a number of empty seats on their A380s.

I do not know LH's pax loads on their 744 routes on a daily, weekly, monthly, or annual basis. That being said, for 744 routes that consistently go out full or oversold, the A380 is the likely choice. For those routes that fluctuate more, but on the lower end match or exceed an A346's capacity, then the 748 could be a more likely option.
 
keesje
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:04 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 10):
I bet 90% of the 747-8I orders will be frieghters for the next 5 years.

I bet 90% of all 747 ordered during the last 5 years were freighters. Probably more then 90% (100%?).

Lufthansa doesn't seem the airline to me willing to become the launch customer for the 747-8i. Perhaps JAL, PIA, AC or UA..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:07 am

Could it be the B-747-800I is more appealing at US airports, because they don't need infastructure improvements? Where as to support the A-380, they do need them? Yes, airports like LAX, JFK, and SFO will make the improvements. But, ALT will not, and it is doubtful that DFW, IAH, ORD, BOS, DET, SEA and a few others will, either. The costs just don't justify it for the number of A-380 movements they might see. Until Airbus can work some deal with all these airports, and others, it will effect A-380 sales and make the B-747 more attractive, that will effect future airline considerations of the A-380. After all, the airlines don't want to pay for these improvements, either.
 
Ken777
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:18 am

I think it might be helpful for Boeing to first finalize the length of the 748i - and this is probably going to be determined by the airlines that will potentially buy the largest fleets. When that's taken care of I can see LH and a few others going for the launch discounts. Can the details be finalized by the end of the year? No clue on that, but if they can than an order for LH is possible.
 
keesje
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:18 am

I think many US airports where making noise during the last few years on being unwilling to adjust for A380's.

Most are adjusting by now. Lets say they are customer focussed again after being financing focussed.

They don't want to be left out, is another way of saying it.
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deputydawghere
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:34 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
I don't see NZ, UA, JL, or NW ordering anything as large as the B747-8. LH, QF, and BA are possibilities.

I'm curious as to your reasoning on this. As an example, isn't the 747-400 quite a successful plane for UA on their longhaul flights to destinations such as Australia? Of course, with oil prices jumping all over the place maybe that's not even the case anymore. Which plane would be better suited as a replacement in both pax capacity and fuel efficiency than the 747-8? I don't see UA incorporating A380's into their fleet. Thanks for any information my friend.
N/A
 
zvezda
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:38 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):

I do not know LH's pax loads on their 744 routes on a daily, weekly, monthly, or annual basis. That being said, for 744 routes that consistently go out full or oversold, the A380 is the likely choice.

That would be true if the WhaleJet had a lower CASM than the SuperJumbo. Dubious.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 15):
Lufthansa doesn't seem the airline to me willing to become the launch customer for the 747-8i. Perhaps JAL, PIA, AC or UA..

There is no chance of AC ordering the SuperJumbo. They got rid of all their Jumbos because they were too large. JL and UA are also unlikely to order anything so large.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:50 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
Could it be the B-747-800I is more appealing at US airports, because they don't need infrastructure improvements? Where as to support the A-380, they do need them?

US airports that will see occasional A380 sorties probably won't spend a great deal of money upgrading, but then, such sorties will probably not be an undue burden on them or their passengers. Sure, it will be annoying having to queue a bit longer to check-in, board, disembark, and clear C&I, but it should be manageable.

As Keesje noted, US airports that will see multiple A380 sorties are making the changes they need to do to ensure that traffic continues to use them, since that traffic will pay for those improvements in the end.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 20):
(The idea that heavily loaded 744 routes would be replaced with A380s) would be true if the WhaleJet had a lower CASM than the SuperJumbo. Dubious.

Yet if LH can generate more RASM by being able to better meet demand, is a slightly higher CASM all that important? I might be on the wrong track here, but if a 748 has a hypothetical CASM of 8 cents a seat and the A380 has one of 9 cents, if a 748 makes a hypothetical 9 cents RASM per seat and an A380 makes 11 (say because it has more premium seats and sells more of them thanks to better amenities), is not the A380 the better fiscal choice? For every extra cent you pay to operate it, you bring in two extra cents of revenue vs. one cent extra with the 748.
 
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:53 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 6):
WhaleJet?

I suppose you mean A380?

But Emirates has also a gap betwen 777-300 and A380.
 
johnnybgoode
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:05 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 6):
Are you suggesting that LH will leave a gap in their fleet between the A340-600 and the WhaleJet?

as someone else has already stated in another thread:
now as LH is further stretching the 747-8 to match the fuselage length of the freighter version, the 747-8 comes closer to the A380 in size (don't know the exact specifics). there still is a gap to fill between the A380 and A346, but now the question is, is it still viable to introduce an additional fleet type, now that it's closer to the A380.
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dazeflight
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:08 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 4):
JL and NW operate all of their routes using aircraft smaller than the B747-8.



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):
Quoting DLKAPA (Reply 8):
Technically every airline in the world operates all of their routes using aircraft smaller than the 748.

That's right. Therefore saying that any route "requires" an aircraft the size of the B747-8 is demonstrably false. Routes require an aircraft with a minimum range, but not a minimum size.

Trying to be a smart ass? Using that as an argument to underline why a certain airline won't order the type is the same as saying no Airline requires the B747-8I.

And yes, if you have a route that is slot restricted on one of both ends, and you can't add additional frequencies, then the route definitely requires a larger aircraft.

ciao
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:10 am

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 22):
But Emirates has also a gap betwen 777-300 and A380.

Highly unlikely EK need yet another VLA, But who knows. Personally I think they need to concentrate on filling all those A380s.
 
PADSpot
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:20 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 18):
I think many US airports where making noise during the last few years on being unwilling to adjust for A380's.

The severest investment for airports to adjust to the A380 (in case they were B747-ready before) are larger gate-areas and additional boarding bridges (ok, ok some will also have to broad taxiway bends for the A380 only).

It already takes a while to board 350-400 people through two bridges onto 747s and 777s. A third bridge as more or less necessary for A380 operation might also come in handy for 747Is.

What I mean is that the investment risk for A380 modifications of airports will be spread over a larger variety of aircrafts and thus airports will probably stop whining once the B747I and the A380 are around.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:23 am

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 22):
But Emirates has also a gap betwen 777-300 and A380.

I imagine this is intentional on EK's part for, as EI321 notes they have so much incoming capacity they need to force pax onto the A380. Adding the 748 would just dillute that effort.
 
zvezda
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:25 am

Quoting Deputydawghere (Reply 19):
I'm curious as to your reasoning on this. As an example, isn't the 747-400 quite a successful plane for UA on their longhaul flights to destinations such as Australia? Of course, with oil prices jumping all over the place maybe that's not even the case anymore. Which plane would be better suited as a replacement in both pax capacity and fuel efficiency than the 747-8? I don't see UA incorporating A380's into their fleet. Thanks for any information my friend.

UA bought the JumboJet for its OZ ops because at the time it was the only aircraft with sufficient range. If I were buying aircraft for UA to replace the JumboJets to OZ, I'd buy B787s. That would allow UA to restart MEL and perhaps BNE as well as provide flexibility to increase or decrease seats as needed.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
if a 748 makes a hypothetical 9 cents RASM per seat and an A380 makes 11 (say because it has more premium seats and sells more of them thanks to better amenities),

The demand curve slopes in the other direction. RASM goes down as the number of seats goes up if amenities, service, etc. are the same. IFE, nice seats, etc. make just as much sense in one aircraft as the other.

Quoting Dazeflight (Reply 24):
And yes, if you have a route that is slot restricted on one of both ends, and you can't add additional frequencies, then the route definitely requires a larger aircraft.

Something may be justified, but that doesn't make it required.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:36 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 28):
The demand curve slopes in the other direction. RASM goes down as the number of seats goes up if amenities, service, etc. are the same. IFE, nice seats, etc. make just as much sense in one aircraft as the other.

Yet Airbus and their supporters say the A380's amenities will be better then anything else. Even if an A380 and a 747-8 have identical seating in identical configs, the A380 will have more personal space in F (since suites are seated individually so they can be space apart a bit better) and more aisle space in Business (since seats are grouped in pairs/triples) which should help improve the ambience. And then there is available space for things like expanded bars and lounge areas - which are already found on some carrier's 747s and 777s, so the operators don't seem to feel they are "wasted space".

All that could...incentivize...folks to choose an A380 over a 748 departing within a short time of each other and support a small price premium for the A380.
 
astuteman
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:40 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 20):
(The idea that heavily loaded 744 routes would be replaced with A380s) would be true if the WhaleJet had a lower CASM than the SuperJumbo. Dubious.

Yet if LH can generate more RASM by being able to better meet demand, is a slightly higher CASM all that important?

I think you have a fair point, Stitch.
It's easy for some people to get hooked up on Cost alone (or CASM), but a larger aircraft can still generate more operating profit in absolute terms, even if its CASM is slightly higher (although the profit margin might be lower).

Two factors come into play.
The first is that the load factors have to be consistently high. That risk for the purchasing airline to judge

The second is the purchase price.
If an A380 generates 15% more gross revenue than the smaller 748i, but because of CASM, only generates 10% more profit, provided the difference in purchase price (including discounts, incentives, financing etc etc) is less than 10%, the A380 will still generate a bigger ROI for the airline, and pay for itself more quickly.

I personally believe that this is the reason why Steve Udvar-Hazy specifically picked out the purchase price of the 747-8 as the key determinant to its success.

At the end of the day, Airlines are interested in profitability and ROI than in CASM for its own sake (although it is of course a factor).

Regards
 
Rj111
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:46 am

I don't think the gap in between the A346/773ER and A380 is a problem that all airlines will feel the need to address. A lot of the busy routes the 748 would be seen on would have more than one daily frequency, so using an A380 and A346/773ER daily would effectively offer the same capacity as two 748s. Alternatively you can increase the price of tickets on a A346/773ER.

LH may well opt for the 748I though as they will have keen interest in the -F and this will justify the introduction costs. However i doubt more than 10 -800Is would be ordered initially.

[Edited 2006-09-05 18:47:30]
 
deputydawghere
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:11 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 28):
UA bought the JumboJet for its OZ ops because at the time it was the only aircraft with sufficient range. If I were buying aircraft for UA to replace the JumboJets to OZ, I'd buy B787s. That would allow UA to restart MEL and perhaps BNE as well as provide flexibility to increase or decrease seats as needed.

Thanks for your information, however, I see UA eventually replacing their 747-400's with 747-8's when they're in the financial position to do so. UA still flies to MEL through SYD. I know, as I've flown that route many times.
N/A
 
jacobin777
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:26 am

I have read UA's Tilton stating that there is room for the 747-8I to join the fleet..now what happens is anyone's guess..

I also think BA will eventually get the 747-8I and possibly A380..but BA's Walsh has stated they wouldn't get more than a "dozen or so" A380s....so that leaves a lot of 744's to be replaced....

With 57 744's and say 10-15 A380's as those replacements, I still think BA would get around 20-25 747-8I's........granted the average age for the 744 is only around 11 1/2 years, but some of the older ones do need to be replaced...

Anyway, I think LH will order some 747-8I's.....it fulfils a need in their fleet
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PlaneHunter
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:28 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 4):
JL and NW operate all of their routes using aircraft smaller than the B747-8.

Of course, just like every airline...

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 30):
It's easy for some people to get hooked up on Cost alone (or CASM), but a larger aircraft can still generate more operating profit in absolute terms, even if its CASM is slightly higher (although the profit margin might be lower).

 checkmark 


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Stitch
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:35 am

One thing I should note is that when I said "Even if an A380 and a 747-8 have identical seating in identical configs..." in Reply 29, I was referring to the type of suite/seat and the layout (1+1 / 2+3+2 / etc.) and not that an A380 and a 748 would have identical seat counts.  Embarrassment

And thank you, Astuteman for helping to frame my argument better then I did so myself. Big grin  thumbsup 
 
keesje
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:24 am

It seems to me the reasoning why carriers like BA, JAL, United and Cathay will never use A380s to replace 747´s are quiet complicated and resting on a lot of innovative assumptions that tend to favor aircraft types like the 747-8i and 777 and 787.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ebbuk
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:32 am

I am still not entirely sure why any carrier would buy an aircraft with nothing more to offer in the future.

If the 380 is too big then it would make sense to buy the 350/787 or T7 never the 748.

Unless they want to be left with obsolete metal in 5 yrs after EIS
 
hb88
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:42 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
It looks like they just got a great deal on the A-330-200 from Airbus because of the A-380-800 delays.

Of course you have proof of this don't you?

(sorry, I couldn't resist. It gets a bit annoying reading variations on the "The Great Airbus Giveaway" repeated over and over like a mantra until people start believing that it is true...).

I think the 747-8i is dead in the water. No pax orders since offer, relatively little interest from carriers except as leverage in negotiations with Airbus. No-one wants it now and I doubt anyone will want it in a year from now. With Boeing committments in other areas, I would expect some hard decisions in 2007 wrt to this aircraft.
 
MCOflyer
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:07 am

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 13):
I'd say if they don't order the 747-8 now, they'll eventually order it.

Agreed.

I'm thinking JL will order some if Boeing offers JL a (D) model. JL may have 77W a/c but in Japan, the capacity of a 748 is warranted for the Domestic ops they do. ANA could order some (D) models if Boeing offered it.

MCOflyer
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Stitch
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:12 am

Quoting MCOflyer (Reply 39):
I'm thinking JL will order some if Boeing offers JL a (D) model. JL may have 77W a/c but in Japan, the capacity of a 748 is warranted for the Domestic ops they do. ANA could order some (D) models if Boeing offered it.

I disagree. JL has moved from the 747D to the 777A and now the 787-3 as traffic per sortie has dropped, shifting to options like high-speed rail (the shinkansen).
 
deputydawghere
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:23 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 37):
I am still not entirely sure why any carrier would buy an aircraft with nothing more to offer in the future.

If the 380 is too big then it would make sense to buy the 350/787 or T7 never the 748.

Unless they want to be left with obsolete metal in 5 yrs after EIS

Why would the 748 be obsolete metal in five years? That has got to be one of the most ridiculous comments I've read on this website.

[Edited 2006-09-06 02:29:49]
N/A
 
jacobin777
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:44 am

Quoting Hb88 (Reply 38):

I think the 747-8i is dead in the water. No pax orders since offer, relatively little interest from carriers except as leverage in negotiations with Airbus. No-one wants it now and I doubt anyone will want it in a year from now. With Boeing committments in other areas, I would expect some hard decisions in 2007 wrt to this aircraft.

interesting considering they haven't even finalised the specs yet.....also considering the have already sold close to 30 of the 748's means the line will be moving for years..

not to mention, both GE and Boeing predict around 300 747-8 (pax/cargo) frames will be sold....

-finally, there is one "Unidentified" 747-8I sold already..thus you are incorrect right off the top... Wink
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Stitch
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:46 am

The decisions that drive whether to purchase a 748 or an A388 (or either, for that mattter) are probably driven by what each airline views their traffic and route patterns to be.

International route fragmentation will continue to expand as it has since the 1980s, however the hubs will always play a role for the world's majors. This duality may very well squeeze the 747-8 out of a job, or it may allow her to carve a niche for herself.

As noted, a whole lot of 747-400s are plying the skies still, so there should be enough pie for both.  Smile
 
deputydawghere
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:02 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 42):
interesting considering they haven't even finalised the specs yet.....also considering the have already sold close to 30 of the 748's means the line will be moving for years..

not to mention, both GE and Boeing predict around 300 747-8 (pax/cargo) frames will be sold....

Thanks for the information about GE and Boeing's predictions. I wasn't aware of that. I know they're only predictions though. Even if the 748 isn't picked by carriers for pax reasons, which I don't believe will be the case, especially as a more fuel efficient version becomes available, she'll definitely be around for a long time as a freighter. I admit I'm very partial to the 747 and hope she graces the skies for many years to come.
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jacobin777
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:45 am

Quoting Deputydawghere (Reply 44):

Thanks for the information about GE and Boeing's predictions. I wasn't aware of that. I know they're only predictions though. Even if the 748 isn't picked by carriers for pax reasons, which I don't believe will be the case, especially as a more fuel efficient version becomes available, she'll definitely be around for a long time as a freighter. I admit I'm very partial to the 747 and hope she graces the skies for many years to come.

I agree...they are only predictions...but solid ones I think...once the pax version becomes firmed up, I anticipate to see a number of frames sold...

I also hope to see a lot more of both the pax and freighter version... Smile

I certainly think there are more than enough carriers who want the 748......and I'm certain we'll be seeing the 747-family gracing the skies for many years to come...... yes 
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deputydawghere
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:00 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 45):
I also hope to see a lot more of both the pax and freighter version...

Dito on that one bud, and I think we're going to.
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797charter
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:50 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 12):
Quoting Columba (Reply 11):
I highly doubt that all delivered 747-8Is will be converted into 747-8Fs

Sorry. I meant that 90% of all 747-8's would be of the F variety.

As I see it, it is very like that LH orders "a bunch" of 748F.

I doubt we will see any 748i orders from LH, - although I would love if they did.

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Steen
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EI321
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:20 pm

Quoting Deputydawghere (Reply 41):
Why would the 748 be obsolete metal in five years? That has got to be one of the most ridiculous comments I've read on this website.
I think what he means is that as an aircraft on which airlines are looking to base their future l/h fleet, the 748 does not have much potential. Many airlines order an aircraft in the knowledge and expectation that more improved versions will be launched with which they can expand their operations in the future (such as what happened with the original 777 design). With the 748, and prospective airline would be buying it in the knowledge that 15 or 20 years down the line they will be forced to buy a whole new model that wont have common systems or ratings with it. They can either order a new family now, and order future variation's of it in the future, or order the 748 and have to order another aircraft type in the future.

The 748F is selling well for several reasons
- As a freighter, there is nothing else that can match its ability to carry large or heavy cargo.
- Freighters in general have a longer working life than passenger models. Where a 747 might be used as a passenger aircraft for its first 20 years, they often have another 15 or so years use as converted freighters, whereas new build freighters will serve for the full term.
- With the exception of EK, it has been ordered by existing 744F operators.

[Edited 2006-09-06 11:58:43]
 
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autothrust
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RE: Will LH Order The B-747-800I This Year?

Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:24 pm

Quoting 797charter (Reply 48):
As I see it, it is very like that LH orders "a bunch" of 748F.

I follow that, LH will order the 748F, they are very happy with the 747 and the A380F would not be capable to carry every freight they are used to transport.

There is a big chance they will order the 748 but that depends IMO if they go with the A350 or B787 for longhaul. Maybe the A358 and the A359 would be enough for LH to fill the gap to the A380, in this case they wouldn't need the 748.

Otherwise if Boeing offers a very sweat deal we will probably see both 748F and 748.(who knows maybe the whole package 783,789, 748, 748F)

[Edited 2006-09-06 11:27:16]
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