MAH4546
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Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:10 am

Just the regular disclaimer that this is a rumour, so take it with a grain of salt, but an interesting one none the less.

Just recently I have heard that American Airlines, in the case that they lose their Dallas-China application, is strongly considering using the plane designated for DFW-PEK (currently flying SJC-NRT; switching to JFK-EZE next month through April) is considering service to South Africa, from Miami. The daily 777-200ER service would most likely operate via a third point in west Africa, as it would eliminate cargo restrictions and a non-stop would require the flight to go to Cape Town (and then onto Jo'Burg), which is a weaker yielding market. The third point would be Lagos, Dakar, or Accra. AA would perfer Lagos, since it the yield is spectacular, but there are many safety concerns and it is a corrupt country to do business in. Dakar is the "safe route", offers good local demand from South Florida, but is also becoming over-saturated with daily flights to Atlanta, New York City, and Washington. Accra is traditionally a very stable market, also strong yielding, but there is less demand than Lagos or Dakar. Geographically, the move makes sense. Miami in itself is one of the largest USA-Africa travel markets, and MIA is well postioned for strong feed from other key markets - Toronto, Houston, Dallas, Chicago, and Los Angeles. And if DFW-PEK doesn't get the go, it doesn't mean South Africa flights will, because there are dozens of other opportunities (like the long rumoured ORD-HKG) being looked at as well.

With the way AA has been "expanding" lately, by closing down smaller long-haul stations to focus on larger ones, it does not sound in line with anything AA would do. Though, then again, they have taken a few successful moves in the past two years - such as Chicago-Delhi, Chicago-Dublin, and Miami-Montevideo - that also defy their normal strategy.

I personally feel the Africa-USA market will see significant traffic increases starting in the early 2010s, so it would be nice if AA joins Delta in taking a head start.

In my opinion, the rumour makes logical sense, if true. However, I don't think AA will follow through with it. I do think AA flying to Africa from Miami in the future is a very realistic possibility, but that they will wait for new aircraft, such as the 787 that would do MIA-JNB non-stop with ease, for it.

[Edited 2006-09-05 22:24:09]
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commavia
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:19 am

I think that if AA were to try a Miami-Africa flight, it would be immensely successful. The market is there, and geographically, MIA would offer excellent connections to other parts of the U.S., including major U.S. cities like L.A., San Francisco, Dallas, Houston, Chicago, Atlanta, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, D.C., etc.

Personally, I think that a daily 777 MIA-ACC-JNB and a daily 767-300 MIA-LOS-NBO would all be successful.
 
Evan767
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:33 am

Where exactly did this rumor originate?
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jfk777
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:41 am

Miami-J'Berg-CPT-Miami. I fondly remember the SAA 744 nonstop both ways for most of the 1990's from CPT-MIA-CPT. If AA is going to wimp out and stop in west africa then 763, IF they have the guts to go nonstop then 777.
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BigGSFO
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:48 am

What about MIA-CPT-JNB-CPT-MIA? How bad are the restrictions non-stop to/from CPT?

Either way, it would be an interesting rumor to see come true.
 
AA767400
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:51 am

I know it's crazy but here goes: MIA-SJU-CPT, or MIA-SJU-JNB?

Would that eliminate the need for fueling?
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MAH4546
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:54 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 4):
What about MIA-CPT-JNB-CPT-MIA? How bad are the restrictions non-stop to/from CPT?

Not as bad, but I believe with AA's 772ERs, still not good enough to forgoe a west Africa stop.

Quoting AA767400 (Reply 5):
I know it's crazy but here goes: MIA-SJU-CPT, or MIA-SJU-JNB?

Would that eliminate the need for fueling?

No, it would not elimiate the need, and AA would probably perfer to take on weight restrictins and go non-stop over stopping in San Juan.
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miaskies
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:55 am

Hmmm nice rumour and truthfully I too see it as a strong possibility. We have had the service before with SA why not with AA? The market is there... seems like a winner.

Quick note, I just flew AA from MIA for my labor day weekend up in Long Island (via JFK) and was talking to some AA and Airport Employees about service there and future airlines and one mentioned that a rumour had been flying around about possible Miami-Dubai service on Emirates as wild and exotic as that sounds, is that possible? I also saw this on a map they have in front of Concourse E where it shows current routes and "future routes"
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MAH4546
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:58 am

Quoting Miaskies (Reply 7):
one mentioned that a rumour had been flying around about possible Miami-Dubai service on Emirates as wild and exotic as that sounds, is that possible?

Emirates as listed Miami as one of one dozen planned North American destinations. At least 3-5 years off.
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blink182
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 6:40 am

I just read that Delta got rights to fly ATL- Africa with a 763. Even if DFW-PEK gets approved and requires the allotted number of 777s, does AA have enough 763s to devote to MIA-Africa?
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elmothehobo
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:54 am

Blink182,

Yes. With MAN-MIA, BOS-CDG and ORD-GLA no longer operating or closing up shop by summer 2007 and RDU-LGW being upgraded to a 777 (temporary I'd guess), American will have 3 767s available for summer time.

That doesn't include 767s that are operated in the Caribbean and Domestically that could be replaced by other domestic aircraft.

Point being, yes, American does have enough aircraft for a least one daily round trip frequency to Africa.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:58 am

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 10):

Yes. With MAN-MIA, BOS-CDG and ORD-GLA no longer operating or closing up shop by summer 2007 and RDU-LGW being upgraded to a 777 (temporary I'd guess), American will have 3 767s available for summer time.

MAN-MIA never operated during the winter, and with a new redeye frequency on MIA-GRU and a second daily year-round MIA-GIG, those planes are already allocated.
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B4REAL
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:06 am

Quoting AA767400 (Reply 5):
I know it's crazy but here goes: MIA-SJU-CPT, or MIA-SJU-JNB

As MAH piped in earlier, I don't think that would fly. No pun intended. Simply put, the intermediary would need to have some value for cargo and O&D. LOS, DKR, and ACC have that value added in the stop. SJU would add a very, very, small amount of pax traffic - making it a non-efficient stop. The 3 cities listed earlier would be a better stop.
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elmothehobo
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:14 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 11):
MAN-MIA never operated during the winter, and with a new redeye frequency on MIA-GRU and a second daily year-round MIA-GIG, those planes are already allocated.

I may be mistaken, but the second daily MIA-GIG uses the slot and aircraft from the second daily DFW-GRU, therefore there is no additional usage.

The new redeye frequency only requires one additional aircraft. If anything, two aircraft would be available. Please correct me if I am mistaken.
 
cayman
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:28 am

There has been lots of idle speculation and/or rumor of AC considering a YYZ-FLL-JNB or YYZ-MIA-JNB flight, along the lines of what's planned for YYZ-LAX-SYD. If AA proceeds that might end the AC possibility, if there ever was one.

On the other hand, presumably AC could do MIA-JNB non stop on the new 772LR, which AA cannot do with the 772ER?

Either way MIA seems like a logical market for S Africa traffic. AC might have a bit of an edge if it originated a flight in YYZ which would have a strong stand alone market for S Africa in its own right.

All very interesting.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:33 am

Quoting CayMan (Reply 14):
There has been lots of idle speculation and/or rumor of AC considering a YYZ-FLL-JNB or YYZ-MIA-JNB flight, along the lines of what's planned for YYZ-LAX-SYD. If AA proceeds that might end the AC possibility, if there ever was one.

AC has been looking at it according to reliable rumours. However, there are two major problems:

1) Canada and South Africa have no recognized air treaty.

2) South Africans contiuning onto Canada would need a US Visa.
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 8:58 am

Quoting CayMan (Reply 14):
On the other hand, presumably AC could do MIA-JNB non stop on the new 772LR, which AA cannot do with the 772ER?

AC could do a YYZ-JNB route direct without stopping in ATL, FLL or MIA with a 772LR (if they ordered enough of that model). While Canada carriers can stop in the USA and vice versa, it doesn't make sense to do it if you have the aircraft that has the range.
Big version: Width: 481 Height: 241 File size: 6kb
YYZ-JNB
Keep in mind the range of a Boeing 772LR is 9400nm and this route is about 7250nm.
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bnamaxx
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:05 am

Lots of talk about AA "starting" service. Do they have traffic rights for this? I'm assuming they just don't go announcing they are going into South Africa. Funny how the rumor mill works on a.net sometimes. No U.S. carrier has flown into South Africa for years now all of a sudden two want the rights? Seems odd.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:13 am

Quoting Bnamaxx (Reply 17):
Lots of talk about AA "starting" service. Do they have traffic rights for this? I'm assuming they just don't go announcing they are going into South Africa. Funny how the rumor mill works on a.net sometimes. No U.S. carrier has flown into South Africa for years now all of a sudden two want the rights? Seems odd.

DL was just formally awarded rights to serve ATL-JNB via DKR. They still need to be formally given the rights from Senegal to make the fuel/tech stop, but Africa many analysts now expect will see a higher North American growth rate than Asia will over the next 5-6 years. Hence the speculation for AC in addition to AA.
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MAH4546
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:24 am

Quoting Bnamaxx (Reply 17):
Lots of talk about AA "starting" service. Do they have traffic rights for this?

Traffic rights are easy to acquire for US-South Africa. There are 14 open slots.

Quoting Bnamaxx (Reply 17):
No U.S. carrier has flown into South Africa for years now all of a sudden two want the rights? Seems odd.

You mean like with Delhi, Berlin, Stockholm, Edinburgh, Nagoya, Hamburg, and Copenhagen? Or was it just "funny" that US airlines (and Emirates in the case of HAM) opened up trans-Atlantic routes to those markets, sometimes within days of each other? Airlines often follow others. Nothing new here.

[Edited 2006-09-06 02:35:13]
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jacobin777
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:28 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
. The third point would be Lagos, Dakar, or Accra. AA would perfer Lagos, since it the yield is spectacular, but there are many safety concerns and it is a corrupt country to do business in.

LOS might be corrupt and there might be potential safety concerns.., but carriers do make their way there.....VS and BA to name a couple...

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
(like the long rumoured ORD-HKG) being looked at as well.

gosh..I've been saying for a while AA should try to get this route...UA sends 1-2 744's daily.....AA's 777's should have enough legs to do the trip......

Quoting Miaskies (Reply 7):
Quick note, I just flew AA from MIA for my labor day weekend up in Long Island (via JFK) and was talking to some AA and Airport Employees about service there and future airlines and one mentioned that a rumour had been flying around about possible Miami-Dubai service on Emirates as wild and exotic as that sounds, is that possible? I also saw this on a map they have in front of Concourse E where it shows current routes and "future routes"

darn..for a second, I thought you wrote that AA might try JFK-DXB..now that would be a sight to see-with EK soon to be flying 3x/daily (2-nonstop and one via HAM) the market is certainly there....that being said, I did see DL's plane in DXB back during the summer of 2001..was cool to see.. spin 

Regarding the United States, I think EK will go for ORD/LAX/SFO first....
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:39 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 16):
AC could do a YYZ-JNB route direct without stopping in ATL, FLL or MIA with a 772LR

Wouldn't there be ETOPS problems with a direct route like that?

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SLCUT2777
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:44 am

Speaking of geographical oddities, look at some of the distances between J'berg and some North American cities in question:
MIA-JNB with AA:
Big version: Width: 480 Height: 240 File size: 6kb
MIA-JNB 7005nm

ATL-JNB with DL
Big version: Width: 480 Height: 240 File size: 6kb
ATL-JNB 7334nm

NYC-JFK with DL or AA
Big version: Width: 481 Height: 241 File size: 6kb
JFK-JNB 6925nm

I've listed the distances in nautical miles.
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LipeGIG
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:47 am

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 13):
The new redeye frequency only requires one additional aircraft. If anything, two aircraft would be available. Please correct me if I am mistaken.

They will use 2 aircrafts as nowadays they use the same 763 used on GRU-MIA night flight. For the new night flight they will really need 2 more aircrafts as 1 will be parked during the day at GRU.

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SLCUT2777
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:50 am

Quoting Brenintw (Reply 21):
Wouldn't there be ETOPS problems with a direct route like that?

3 hour ETOPs should cover this route fine. There are also contingency airfields on Ascension and St Helena in the case of ATL or MIA that could be utilized. But there is also the word going around that the 772LR "might" be ETOPs certified for 4-5 hours.
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PlaneGuy27
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:57 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 18):
DL was just formally awarded rights to serve ATL-JNB via DKR. They still need to be formally given the rights from Senegal to make the fuel/tech stop,

Actually the U.S. and Senegal have an Open Skies agreement so there are no restrictions on U.S. carriers operating into Dakar or beyond. And the only thing that comes into play is the US-Senegal and US-South Africa agreement for this flight. Any restrictions from Senegal-South Africa agmt wouldn't come into play. ,......so there aren't going to be any problems getting necessary approval from Senegal.

And Delta will be selling all three routes in one flight. ATL-Dakar, Dakar-JNB and ATL-JNB. Not bad.....now I am not sure about wanting to do all of that in a 763ER.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:58 am

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 13):
I may be mistaken, but the second daily MIA-GIG uses the slot and aircraft from the second daily DFW-GRU, therefore there is no additional usage.

The new redeye frequency only requires one additional aircraft. If anything, two aircraft would be available. Please correct me if I am mistaken.

Correct about GIG.

However, the new MIA-GRU frequency needs two new 763s. Currently, only four planes are needed for the MIA-GRU flights. One does a redeye and turns around to a daylight and the other parks at GRU all day. Starting in the winter, six planes will be needed, all will park at GRU all day.
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:04 am

Quoting PlaneGuy27 (Reply 25):
.....now I am not sure about wanting to do all of that in a 763ER.

Which is why if DL wants this to work over the long term they better get a 772LR working it as I posted above, or at least an 772ER if the DKR stop is more vital to the success of this venture.
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jc2354
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 10:08 am

Does anyone know the SA schedules/times when they flew the nonstop service between mia and jnb?

Thanks
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LTU932
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:34 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 16):
Keep in mind the range of a Boeing 772LR is 9400nm and this route is about 7250nm.

True, but hot and high conditions might affect things if AC decides to take off from JNB in daylight. That unless they go for the GE90-115B on their 772LRs, which can alleviate things. Neither the A345 or 772LR are immune to hot and high after all and this could make things difficult for them one way or the other, at least in plain daylight and in the South African summer.

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 24):
3 hour ETOPs should cover this route fine. There are also contingency airfields on Ascension and St Helena in the case of ATL or MIA that could be utilized.

From the looks of it, the Canary Islands and the Azores seem to be nearby, which could put for example SMA, TER, TFS and TFN on the table as candidates for ETOPS diversion points.

Quoting PlaneGuy27 (Reply 25):
And Delta will be selling all three routes in one flight. ATL-Dakar, Dakar-JNB and ATL-JNB. Not bad.....now I am not sure about wanting to do all of that in a 763ER.

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PanAm747
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 11:47 am

Okay, here's a strategy that perhaps might increase options for North America - Africa flights:

1) The Senegalese government improves their airport to accomodate many more large airplanes. As I recall, the runway is in great shape, but the taxiways are a little scary, and almost impossible for an A340-600.

2) Dakar, Senegal, becomes THE stopover for North American flights on their Africa-bound flights (they are continuting on to other locations, one would assume). ATL-DKR, MIA-DKR, JFK-DKR, IAD-DKR, JFK-DKR, ORD-DKR, and so on, arrive close to each other in time.

3) Inter-African carriers can pick up on traffic disembarking at DKR to connect to flights to the rest of Africa. For example, a business traveller going ATL-LOS transits DKR rather than Europe, saving him precious time. ACC-ORD? Fly a local carrier to DKR, and then switch to the flight bound for ORD.

I know not every American carrier is going to fly to Africa soon, but this might be something Senegal (or any other West African nation, for that matter!) might want to consider.
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behramjee
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:45 pm

in a perfect risk free world, AA would love to route their JNB flights via LOS from MIA. however the law & order situation in LOS does not allow them to do so and nor does the corrupt practices of Nigerians. I recall reading last year that COs crew refused to stay overnight in LOS due to it being unsafe.

it is a more safer option routing the flight via ACC to JNB with a B 772ER.

From MIA, not only can you connect major US cities and YYZ nonstop but also Mexico, Carribbean states, Venezuela and Panama.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 12:49 pm

It seems like the liklihood of this route taking shape depends on two things. One is obvious, the other not so much. First, enough growth in the US-Africa market must occur so that there is enough room for SA)">AA on the route with SA)">DL there already (presumably). After all, SA)">DL is going to sap a lot of the connecting traffic from SA)">AA. They offer connections to more places over ATL, and for much of the country, ATL versus MIA for a connection to Africa makes little difference. It's not as though ATL is a "worse" hub through which to transit, either. If both flights arrive in the morning, ATL might actually be less congested since SA)">DL flies far fewer passengers to South America than does SA)">AA.

Since there will be competition for connecting passengers, SA)">AA might have to rely heavily on O&D. Now, SA did fly MIA-CPT in the past, and the return of SA to MIA has been rumored here and elsewhere so some local traffic clearly exists. The question is whether that would be enough to mitigate SA)">DL's huge connection advantage at ATL or whether the growth in the market in the short term is such that the two can coexist. A fare war on this route would not benefit either SA)">AA or SA)">DL (and, FWIW, I don't see SA)">AA getting into one).
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FLY2LIM
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:00 pm

Quoting B4real (Reply 12):
As MAH piped in earlier, I don't think that would fly. No pun intended. Simply put, the intermediary would need to have some value for cargo and O&D. LOS, DKR, and ACC have that value added in the stop. SJU would add a very, very, small amount of pax traffic - making it a non-efficient stop. The 3 cities listed earlier would be a better stop.

OK, I may be missing the mark here, but what about MIA-GIG/GRU/EZE-JNB?

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fxramper
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:06 pm

Adding to the rumor...

AA will get DFW-PEK, but will also apply for Africa frequencies.

They'll also order 739 and 787 around November.  bouncy 
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 1:25 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 32):
It seems like the liklihood of this route taking shape depends on two things. One is obvious, the other not so much. First, enough growth in the US-Africa market must occur so that there is enough room for SA)">AA on the route with SA)">DL there already (presumably). After all, SA)">DL is going to sap a lot of the connecting traffic from SA)">AA. They offer connections to more places over ATL, and for much of the country, ATL versus MIA for a connection to Africa makes little difference. It's not as though ATL is a "worse" hub through which to transit, either. If both flights arrive in the morning, ATL might actually be less congested since SA)">DL flies far fewer passengers to South America than does SA)">AA.

Since there will be competition for connecting passengers, SA)">AA might have to rely heavily on O&D. Now, SA did fly MIA-CPT in the past, and the return of SA to MIA has been rumored here and elsewhere so some local traffic clearly exists. The question is whether that would be enough to mitigate SA)">DL's huge connection advantage at ATL or whether the growth in the market in the short term is such that the two can coexist. A fare war on this route would not benefit either SA)">AA or SA)">DL (and, FWIW, I don't see SA)">AA getting into one).

Agreed on both points. AA has a significant local traffic advantage with Miami versus Atlanta, but it remains to be seen if that can make up for it. Any AA service between Miami and Africa would stil rely at least 60-70% feed on a good day.

There are approximately 220 daily O&D passengers between MIA and South Africa. If we reasonably assume AA can steal two-fifths of them, and then take into account the natural rise in demand that a non-stop creates, they have the potential to fill it with around 100 daily O&D passengers on the Miami-South Africa segment, and a handful more (10-20) via the stopover.

Another point that would make a significant differece is the routing it is operated on. If AA was able to do this non-stop and profitabily (and 99% chance that the answer is no, they are unable, but just throwing it out there), they get a huge advantage.

Another huge advantage is if AA was able to route any South Africa flight via Lagos. This would be a goldmine. It is too bad that politics, corruption, and safety issues are so prevalent, because I am sure many airlines would otherwise jump into the market. Though if North American Airlines Lagos service prooves successful in ways outside of profit - that they are able to operate it safely and with little operation and facility issues - I think that can be a nice assurance for other airlines.

I know it sounds extreme, I think being able to route it via Lagos would be key to AA going ahead with any move into Africa.
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fxramper
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:07 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 35):
I know it sounds extreme, I think being able to route it via Lagos would be key to AA going ahead with any move into Africa.

 checkmark 
 
elmothehobo
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 2:39 pm

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 32):
SA)">AA might have to rely heavily on O&D. Now, SA did fly MIA-CPT in the past, and the return of SA to MIA has been rumored here and elsewhere so some local traffic clearly exists

You it as if relying on O/D will be a problem for American. Miami a lot of traffic to Africa, most of which goes over hubs in Europe. American would be tapping into a market that has almost no nonstop service. American wouldn't need to compete with Delta, as Delta could go after connections, while American could get a higher yield by working with Miami O/D.

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 31):
I recall reading last year that COs crew refused to stay overnight in LOS due to it being unsafe.

Continental isn't the only airline to do that. Many if not most airlines terminate their Lagos flights in Accra or elsewhere for safety reasons.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 35):
I know it sounds extreme, I think being able to route it via Lagos would be key to SA)">AA going ahead with any move into Africa.

I completely agree, Although I could see Douala emerging as an African hub for oneworld if/when SN Brussels joins (speculation). It would be great for North American Airlines, the only US carrier to serve Nigeria, to team up with a legacy carrier (American would be perfect) for their African services. operations.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:01 pm

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 29):
True, but hot and high conditions might affect things if AC decides to take off from JNB in daylight. That unless they go for the GE90-115B on their 772LRs, which can alleviate things. Neither the A345 or 772LR are immune to hot and high after all and this could make things difficult for them one way or the other, at least in plain daylight and in the South African summer.

Oh yes! The Hot & High factor can affect wide-body departures there as they do here in SLC. How long is the longest runway at JNB?
While CPT doesn't have the altitude issues, do they have long enough runways there to deal with fully laden wide-bodies?

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 29):
From the looks of it, the Canary Islands and the Azores seem to be nearby, which could put for example SMA, TER, TFS and TFN on the table as candidates for ETOPS diversion points.

Flying the mid to south Atlantic isn't the ETOPs logistical nightmare that many think it to be, there are more diversion points than most people realize. The Canary's and the Azores just being some possibilities. The south Pacific on the other hand is very sparse in many places and will require more than three hours of ETOPs on many routes.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
 
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BreninTW
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:10 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 38):
Oh yes! The Hot & High factor can affect wide-body departures there as they do here in SLC. How long is the longest runway at JNB?

I believe the longest R/W at JNB is 4,500 m.

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 38):
While CPT doesn't have the altitude issues, do they have long enough runways there to deal with fully laden wide-bodies?

BA flies LHR-CPT -- it used to be (and may still be) a 744. SA flies 744's and 346's to CPT on a daily basis. MH used to (and may still) fly KUL - JNB - CPT - Buenos Aires. I think SQ also flies to CPT via JNB. I don't think CPT would have any problems handling large a/c.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:22 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 38):
While CPT doesn't have the altitude issues, do they have long enough runways there to deal with fully laden wide-bodies?

British Airways, KLM, MAS, Singapore, Lufthansa, and Virgin Atlantic all fly to Cape Town.
a.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:27 pm

Quoting Brenintw (Reply 39):
I believe the longest R/W at JNB is 4,500 m.

That is equal to 14,770' which is enough at that altitude to get a fully laden 772 off the runway and on its way to North America with no stops.

Quoting Brenintw (Reply 39):
BA flies LHR-CPT -- it used to be (and may still be) a 744. SA flies 744's and 346's to CPT on a daily basis. MH used to (and may still) fly KUL - JNB - CPT - Buenos Aires. I think SQ also flies to CPT via JNB. I don't think CPT would have any problems handling large a/c.

With the growth of service to Africa from North America and with South Africa being what it is to the continent economically, there will need to eventually be service between North American gateways and even CPT and possibly DUR.
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MAH4546
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 3:39 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 41):
there will need to eventually be service between North American gateways and even CPT

SAA flew ATL-CPT and MIA-CPT non-stop in the past. MIA-CPT moved to ATL-CPT, which was then discontinued to consolidate most long haul flying into JNB. The exception is Heathrow.
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 4:26 pm

Quoting Behramjee (Reply 31):
in a perfect risk free world, AA would love to route their JNB flights via LOS from MIA. however the law & order situation in LOS does not allow them to do so and nor does the corrupt practices of Nigerians. I recall reading last year that COs crew refused to stay overnight in LOS due to it being unsafe.

Are you sure about this?

I gather that LOS has become a relatively corruption-free airport with the entire airport management replaced by cleaner hands. CCTVs have been installed throughout and are watching everyone.

The real reason the American carriers vied for LOS and didn't get it was the Nigeria / US tit-for-tat saga, related to US-UK Bermuda aeropolitics battle!
If there is a will, there is a way
 
SAA346
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 5:41 pm

Just a few observations.

With SA going thru DKR twice a night each way with pretty well timed schedules I think DL will battle to pick up traffic on that sector. Another airline will just not pick up on the low demand DKR-ZA.

CPT is THE destination in ZA  Smile I have a private bet that the first commercial A380 will touch in CPT not JNB, especially if it launches in peak season down here. Comments from local airlines have always been to do more direct flights to CPT (who'd want to stop in JNB anyway  Smile

Another transit point. ACC, love the place HATE the airport. More confusion than ATL Sad but I reckon the demand is there since SA were doing JNB-ACC-IAD, and I believe it was due to security issues in ACC that hastened the demise of that service. If a carrier tries for LOS (and I go there a lot and it is absolutely no way as bad as people make out!), US-LOS and LOS-US would be great but LOS-ZA and return would face stiff competition from SA and VK.
 
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:09 pm

Quoting SAA346 (Reply 44):
but I reckon the demand is there since SA were doing JNB-ACC-IAD, and I believe it was due to security issues in ACC that hastened the demise of that service

It was rather the fact that SAA didnt get the rights to carry passengers between ACC and IAD and so it was not economical for SAA as there woud be very few passengers continuing after the stop in ACC.
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jfk777
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Wed Sep 06, 2006 9:52 pm

Atlanta has better feed then Miami, Miami has a better O & D market with many South Africans here. If CPT is the main market then AA should fly MIA-CPT-MIA. British Airways has a local franchise airline that can help with local connections.

South Africa would be great for another reason, when its winter in the USA its summer in South Africa, this could provide a good "off season" market from the USA summer high season. The 7700 miles(MIA-CPT) are within reach of a 772ER, so go for it AA.
 
elmothehobo
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Thu Sep 07, 2006 12:01 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 46):
The 7700 miles(MIA-CPT) are within reach of a 772ER, so go for it AA.

True, but that assumes that AA gets ETOPS 180 for its 777s. With ETOPS 138, American's jets have to detour 3/4s of the way through the trip, which makes the flight just out of reach with a full load.
 
akizidy214
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:34 am

How many airframes would it take to operate this route?
DCA
 
jfk777
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RE: Rumour: AA Looks At South Africa

Thu Sep 07, 2006 1:54 am

Doesn't AA have ETOPS 207 with the flightsto Tokyo? 207 is for the small stretch over the aleutian island in Alaska.

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