NYC777
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LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Thu Sep 21, 2006 11:28 pm

Just saw on Bloomberg and will post a link when I can.

Fair Use Excerpt:

Lufthansa May Order More Aircraft in December, Won't Cut A380s


By Susanna Ray
Sept. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe's
second-biggest airline, may decide in December on an order for
long-distance aircraft, following a decision yesterday to buy 35
mostly short-haul Airbus SAS planes.
The carrier is considering Airbus's proposed A350XWB
airliner and Boeing Co.'s 747-800, 787 and 777-300ER models, Nico
Buchholz, Lufthansa's fleet manager, said in an interview in
Frankfurt today. The airline will stick with an order for 15
Airbus A380s, whose delivery has been delayed, without seeking to
buy any more, he said......``The current order covers us well'' in absorbing the setback, and Lufthansa won't reduce or cancel its A380 contract, Buchholz said.
``We may not be extremely happy about the delay, but the
long-term planning won't change,'' he said.


[Edited 2006-09-21 16:35:24]
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DAYflyer
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Thu Sep 21, 2006 11:45 pm

Uh, are they aware of the new delays announced today on the A-380??
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Leskova
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Thu Sep 21, 2006 11:56 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 1):
Uh, are they aware of the new delays announced today on the A-380??

Oh, you know, I bet someone within LH has an a.net membership, so they'll probably have read it here...  Yeah sure

Take your guess whether or not they know about the delay... heavens... the questions on here sometimes never cease to amaze me...  Yeah sure
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Stitch
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:07 am

Yes I am sure LH is aware of the A380 delay and, like EK, they're probably too committed to the plane to walk away from it.

However, this latest delay could end up being "good" news for Airbus in that they're going to have to appease LH even more, and knocking another few million off each A350 frame plus some additional model-specific incentives may very well lock LH into picking the A350, even if they were originally looking at the 787.
 
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:07 am

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
Nico Buchholz, Lufthansa's fleet manager, said in an interview in Frankfurt today. The airline will stick with an order for 15 Airbus A380s, whose delivery has been delayed, without seeking to buy any more, he said......``The current order covers us well'' in absorbing the setback, and Lufthansa won't reduce or cancel its A380 contract, Buchholz said.

I find that quote most interesting in that they will stay with their original commitment but not exercise any options despite having stated in the past that they had the intention to do so. Perhaps once the air is cleared on the A380 delays they may then proceed to exercise options. If not, this could open the door for Boeing and the 748i or perhaps even the 773ER

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manni
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:10 am

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
The airline will stick with an order for 15
Airbus A380s, whose delivery has been delayed, without seeking to
buy any more, he said......``The current order covers us well'' in absorbing the setback, and Lufthansa won't reduce or cancel its A380 contract, Buchholz said.

I find it curious that LH would make such a statement considering the 748 is said to be still in the running. LH would not win anything by claiming at this stage of the purchase process that they wont order more A380's.

Yesterday a LH spokesman was quoted saying...


"The airline is in talks about adding long-haul capacity with Airbus's A380 and A350XWB models and Boeing's 747-800, 787 and 777-300ER aircraft, and will place an order this year, Goentgens said by telephone. The models are all twin-aisle aircraft."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=a.vKaQ0DlSvM
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khobar
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:17 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 5):
I find it curious that LH would make such a statement considering the 748 is said to be still in the running. LH would not win anything by claiming at this stage of the purchase process that they wont order more A380's.

I think this was a slip indicating that Boeing was never really in the running. As Stitch said, LH is facing an Airbus offer they'll not be able to refuse. I think we'll likely see a repeat of SQ, from "we're going to sue Airbus" to "delays are frustrating but necessary."
 
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:18 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
However, this latest delay could end up being "good" news for Airbus in that they're going to have to appease LH even more, and knocking another few million off each A350 frame plus some additional model-specific incentives may very well lock LH into picking the A350, even if they were originally looking at the 787.

Actually the opposite might occur in that LH seeing that they are too exposed to Airbus, might acutally give Boeing the 787 and 748I order.
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:30 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 7):
Actually the opposite might occur in that LH seeing that they are too exposed to Airbus, might acutally give Boeing the 787 and 748I order.

Well I did note in another thread that I wondered if the A380's delays have affected those customer's views towards the A350, which is also supposed to have very fancy lighting and IFE which will require significant wiring.

As always, the decision on what plane to take is going to come down to economics. However, where the A380 (and the A330 add-ons) had no direct competition, the A350 does. Even if Airbus makes a better offer with the A350 to SQ and LH and EK then Boeing does with the 787, those airlines may worry that if that program's EIS is delayed years, the window of opportunity their 787-flying competition may open could be too wide to close and they choose to pay more now for the 787 for the more sure RoI.
 
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:37 am

Don´t see LH get B773ER when they got 11+ A346 (16 all together?)

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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:40 am

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 9):
16 all together?)

IIRC it's 10 + 7 for 17 total sir

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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:53 am

I have said on this forum that there is no way that LH would order a Boing jet for various reasons. Yestersay seemed to have bourne that out but with today's development I think that now Boeing does have more than decent shot of getting most if not all the WB order from Lufthansa.
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 2:56 am

My guess:

A359 to replace the A343s
A3510 for expansion
B747-8 to fill the gap between A346/A3510 and A380
B747-8F as their sole future cargo plane.

A343, 744 and MD-11F will have to go.
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:02 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 12):
B747-8F as their sole future cargo plane.

I'm still not convinced they'll be going for the "one size fits all" method again... I wouldn't be surprised to see a combination of B777/B748 or A35F/B748 ordered... but I guess we'll just have to see what happens...
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:12 am

Quoting Leskova (Reply 13):
I'm still not convinced they'll be going for the "one size fits all" method again... I wouldn't be surprised to see a combination of B777/B748 or A35F/B748 ordered... but I guess we'll just have to see what happens...

OK, maybe they'll also order a smaller freighter than the 747-8F. But they are very expensive, more MD-11s (if available) might be a better solution.
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:17 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 12):
A359 to replace the A343s
A3510 for expansion
B747-8 to fill the gap between A346/A3510 and A380
B747-8F as their sole future cargo plane.

This sounds reasonable, added with the A350F as Leskova described.
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columba
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:20 am

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 4):
Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
Nico Buchholz, Lufthansa's fleet manager, said in an interview in Frankfurt today. The airline will stick with an order for 15 Airbus A380s, whose delivery has been delayed, without seeking to buy any more, he said......``The current order covers us well'' in absorbing the setback, and Lufthansa won't reduce or cancel its A380 contract, Buchholz said.

I find that quote most interesting in that they will stay with their original commitment but not exercise any options despite having stated in the past that they had the intention to do so. Perhaps once the air is cleared on the A380 delays they may then proceed to exercise options. If not, this could open the door for Boeing and the 748i or perhaps even the 773ER

I agree with you on that. I think most interesting thing is that Buchholz did not mention the A380 to be part of the order that is to be announced in December:

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
The carrier is considering Airbus's proposed A350XWB
airliner and Boeing Co.'s 747-800, 787 and 777-300ER models, Nico
Buchholz, Lufthansa's fleet manager, said in an interview in

Before additional A380s were always mentioned when speaking of this order.
One reason why did not order the 747-8 just yet is because they don´t know what Boeing intends to. Will they stretch the 747-8I further and become closer towards the A380 in capacity or will they stay with the original size.

Quoting Leskova (Reply 13):
I'm still not convinced they'll be going for the "one size fits all" method again... I wouldn't be surprised to see a combination of B777/B748 or A35F/B748 ordered... but I guess we'll just have to see what happens...

There was an article in July from ATW Online posted here were they quoted an LH Cargo Manager (don´t remember the name) who said that they only want to have a single type fleet.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 11):
I have said on this forum that there is no way that LH would order a Boing jet for various reasons. Yestersay seemed to have bourne that out but with today's development I think that now Boeing does have more than decent shot of getting most if not all the WB order from Lufthansa.

I also think so that LH will give a decent share of its WB order to Boeing.
During the last months I only thought that they will go for the 747-8 only since the 787 is too small for them and the A350XWB seemed to be taylor made for them but know I can see them ordering a mix of 777/787 or like SQ and SU 787s and A350s.
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:26 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 16):
I agree with you on that. I think most interesting thing is that Buchholz did not mention the A380 to be part of the order that is to be announced in December:

I think that makes perfect sense. They have 15 on order and a further 10 options. Considering that they have only 30 B744s, a fleet of 25 A380s should be enough for a very long time. They'll convert the options at some point after the EIS, but I don't think they'll buy new ones for a very long time.
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 7:17 am

Well LH stick with Airbus for the narrow body fleet.No suprise.
I still think LH will buy 777s for the present,and some 787s.The A350 is to far in the future(maybe 10 years the way things are going at Airbus)They will order A350s for the future longhaul,but they wont get them for a long time so the 777 order does make sense.The A340s will be sold ASAP(maybe as trade in to Boeing or Airbus).Sound familiar ?Why cant it happen at LH also?
Most likely the 748 will also be ordered.The LH A380 order
will never be cancelled even if is delayed much longer.
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 8:14 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 16):
I also think so that LH will give a decent share of its WB order to Boeing.
During the last months I only thought that they will go for the 747-8 only since the 787 is too small for them and the A350XWB seemed to be taylor made for them but know I can see them ordering a mix of 777/787 or like SQ and SU 787s and A350s.

But if the 787 is too small for them before, why isn't it now? I don't see a split between 787s and 350s as likely for LH because a) they don't have as many planes they want to replace in the near future (and they aren't going to do it for the politics like SU) and b) I wonder if SQ had been able to get the same deal from airbus and the 350xwb had been on offer when they bought from airbus, would they have gone with 358s instead of 789s? I don't know one way or the other and I think that the two planes they bought can complement each other with the large number that SQ will likely end up with (40 of each).

Quoting Scaledesigns (Reply 18):
hey will order A350s for the future longhaul,but they wont get them for a long time so the 777 order does make sense.

I believe that this is only true if airbus goes for the 787. The 350s won't be too far into the future, particularly since LH would likely go for some 359s which will be the first delivered. And the added expense of adding 777s into the fleet (with the hefty premium that these planes will add and given that the 350/787-10/Y3 will easily obsolete them) wouldn't make sense to me unless they go for other airbus widebodies. Add in the fact that they are still going to be adding 330s (all of which are already on the newer side) and the 346 fleet being quite young... The 777s would be such an oddball in the fleet, that I can't see them using them as a stopgap. There is no doubt that the newest generation 777s are more efficient for most operations than the 340s, but the 346s aren't exactly the biggest fuel hogs in the world. While it hurts the bottom line in day to day operations, you do save money in not implementing a new fleet type, new cockpit, etc. for some temporary measure. One of the things that got brushed aside a bit in the AC deal was the fact that some of the efficiency savings are offset by other costs. Of course, the 350 offering at the time didn't help the calculations.

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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:06 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 12):
B747-8F as their sole future cargo plane.

A343, 744 and MD-11F will have to go.



Quoting Thorben (Reply 14):
OK, maybe they'll also order a smaller freighter than the 747-8F. But they are very expensive, more MD-11s (if available) might be a better solution.

LH Cargo is NOT going to order any freighters (esp. not new ones) for the time being.
Feasible solution for the short term might be the conversion of some 744s once they are taken out of passenger service (which is not going to happen too soon, either).
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:33 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 12):
A343, 744 and MD-11F will have to go.

Eventually everything has to go. But some of the 343s and 744s are pretty young. LH can clearly replace some of their older 343s with 333s when the extra range isn't needed in the near term.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 12):
B747-8 to fill the gap between A346/A3510 and A380

If Boeing decides to go with the stretched version of the 748i, I still don't buy that they will go for it. The gap between the 748i and 380 would, then, likely be too small to justify a small fleet of them (even if they go for the 748F, because a small fleet would result in scheduling problems with crews, etc. if one goes mx).

Clearly, we can't think of these purchases as independent. A 748i might be more likely if they go with 787s, etc. $$$ will be a factor in the whole thing.

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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut

Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:34 pm

Quoting Dank (Reply 19):
But if the 787 is too small for them before, why isn't it now?

They have said the -9 is the minimum they would get and they would prefer a stretched version the -10. Let´s see and wait what Boeing is offering them. LIke you said $$ will be a huge factor.
But I think this delay has shown that you can not necessarily rely on one manufacturer and that you need options.
LH had a positive experience with a mixed A320/737 fleet for nearly 20 years now, AF is happy with a mixed A330, A340 and 777 fleet, before they used 767 together with Airbus widebodies, SQ and SU will operate 777 and A350s together.

Quoting Lp0815 (Reply 20):
LH Cargo is NOT going to order any freighters (esp. not new ones) for the time being.

Sorry this is completely wrong. See below:

Quote:

Lufthansa Cargo is evaluating replacement of its 19 MD-11 freighters, which have an average age of eight years, as it looks to brace itself for tough competition in the years ahead."Maybe during this year, but at the latest in 2007, we have to make a decision," Executive Board Member-Operations Karl-Heinz Koepfle told ATWOnline in Frankfurt. He didn't specify a possible replacement type but admitted, "there is not much choice anyway." The 747-400ERF, 747-8 or 777F are LHC's most realistic options.
Koepfle said the 747 must have a nose door to be considered and that LHC no longer wants a mixed freighter fleet and is not interested in passenger-to-freighter conversions like several of the MD-11Fs it currently operates.

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=5707
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 4:04 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 12):
B747-8 to fill the gap between A346/A3510 and A380

But, if Boeing does increase the size of the 748i, it will be too close in capacity to the A380. I would be very surprised to see any airline that has the A380 on order take a larger 748i.
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Lp0815
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 4:12 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 22):
Sorry this is completely wrong. See below:

Quote:

Lufthansa Cargo is evaluating replacement of its 19 MD-11 freighters, which have an average age of eight years, as it looks to brace itself for tough competition in the years ahead."Maybe during this year, but at the latest in 2007, we have to make a decision," Executive Board Member-Operations Karl-Heinz Koepfle told ATWOnline in Frankfurt. He didn't specify a possible replacement type but admitted, "there is not much choice anyway." The 747-400ERF, 747-8 or 777F are LHC's most realistic options.
Koepfle said the 747 must have a nose door to be considered and that LHC no longer wants a mixed freighter fleet and is not interested in passenger-to-freighter conversions like several of the MD-11Fs it currently operates.


http://www.atwonline.com/news/story....=5707

Given the operating profit that LH Cargo currently has, any new freighter purchase would increase depreciation far too much to finish the year with at least a bearable loss;
Needless to say: LH Cargo would lose liquidity if it purchased now and/or potentially even in 2007.
For sure, LCAG is "evaluating"; this evaluation has been going on for at least two to three years now.
A freighter fleet with an average age of 8 years is rather "fresh" so also from that perspective there is no need for us to purchase new planes, even if we could afford it!

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columba
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 4:50 pm

Quoting Lp0815 (Reply 24):
For sure, LCAG is "evaluating"; this evaluation has been going on for at least two to three years now.
A freighter fleet with an average age of 8 years is rather "fresh" so also from that perspective there is no need for us to purchase new planes, even if we could afford it!

Keep in mind that LH Cargo is facing a hard competition and all of its competitioners are using 747-400Fs.
Sometimes in order to make a profit you have to take a risk and make an investement.
Cargolux, AF/KLM, Emirates Cargo and others just have bought new aircraft (747-8F, 747-400ERFs, 777Fs) LH would not be able with them compete anymore with their MD 11Fs. Even now they are having a hard time.
Word is that LH is not satisfied with its converted MD 11s and wants to get rid of them ASAP.
I can imagine that another reason why the long haul order is delayed to December is maybe that LH and Boeing are discussing on a package deal for cargo and passenger aircraft. They would get a better deal on 777F or 747-8F if they would buy them together with 777-300ERs or 747-8Is
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 4:59 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 25):
Sometimes in order to make a profit you have to take a risk and make an investement.

Economically an interesting statement. However, seen from a corporate governance point of view.....
Anyway, if LCAG could afford that risk, maybe LCAG would even take it. What I was saying above in my earlier post, is that LCAG does not have the $$$ to purchase. And if they had, they would mess up their own balance sheet.

Quoting Columba (Reply 25):
Word is that LH is not satisfied with its converted MD 11s and wants to get rid of them ASAP.

The former part of your statement is correct, the latter not.
Used M1F planes are not really hot sellers on the market....!
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columba
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 5:13 pm

Quoting Lp0815 (Reply 26):
What I was saying above in my earlier post, is that LCAG does not have the $$$ to purchase. And if they had, they would mess up their own balance sheet.

That is why I am assuming that they will try to jump on the LH passenger order. They would definitely get a better deal that way rather than to wait and negotiate with Boeing alone next year when the ink on the passenger contracts is already dry.

Quoting Lp0815 (Reply 26):
Used M1F planes are not really hot sellers on the market....!

Nevertheless they are looking for a replacement because they are not satisfied with them. With getting rid of them asap I would not want to imply that they would sell them for the first offer they get. LH is known always to get a very good price for their old aircraft and I think they can sell the converted MD 11s for a good price, too. Not as good as their newly build ones -which were the last to be produced-but good enough.
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 5:36 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 27):
That is why I am assuming that they will try to jump on the LH passenger order. They would definitely get a better deal that way rather than to wait and negotiate with Boeing alone next year when the ink on the passenger contracts is already dry.

Your assumption, however, is wrong!
If they ordered this year they would be in an even worse position than next year; and while LCAG is 100% owned by Lufthansa, Cargo and Passenger side act independently.

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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 6:40 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 16):
I agree with you on that. I think most interesting thing is that Buchholz did not mention the A380 to be part of the order that is to be announced in December:

Thank you sir. The statement from Mr Buchholz was notable and it is one of substance as it was the first of it's nature from them. They have time with 5 x A333s and 7 x A346s coming online to meet their interim requirements.

Quoting Columba (Reply 27):
LH is known always to get a very good price for their old aircraft and I think they can sell the converted MD 11s for a good price, too. Not as good as their newly build ones -which were the last to be produced-but good enough.

 checkmark 

Quoting Lp0815 (Reply 26):
Used M1F planes are not really hot sellers on the market....!

Not entirely...

1: They are tightly held and perform well in their designated -F role
2: Both their residual and lease values have increased over the past 2 years
3: Demand still exists. SU in addition to the 6 they announced they will acquire this week are seeking another 12 to take on lease from 2007 onwards.

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jush
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 6:50 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
Even if Airbus makes a better offer with the A350 to SQ and LH and EK then Boeing does with the 787, those airlines may worry that if that program's EIS is delayed years, the window of opportunity their 787-flying competition may open could be too wide to close and they choose to pay more now for the 787 for the more sure RoI.

Yeah taht assumed Boeing won't have any delays in production and certification.
Yet I don't believe that cause Boeing is building an aircraft from the scratch, too, and they will face some delays... Having said that they won't face delays of a year or more for certain.

Regds
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columba
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut

Fri Sep 22, 2006 7:16 pm

Quoting Lp0815 (Reply 28):
If they ordered this year they would be in an even worse position than next year; and while LCAG is 100% owned by Lufthansa, Cargo and Passenger side act independently.

Sure they act independently but Mr. Mayrhuber and the board also will have to say a little word here and even if not LH Cargo management would be foolish not to think about the possibility of a joint mainline/cargo purchase. For the first time both companies are in the need of a fleet renewal at the same time, so why not join together if they are able to get a good deal out of it.

I am not saying that LH will order Boeing aircraft for their widebody fleet but I am very sure that the discussion with Boeing at the moment is going somehow like this:
"What is the price on 20 747-8I" ...,"Okay and what will it be if we decide to buy another 10 747-8F." Same can be done with the 777F and 777-300ER.


P.S. Any word on the Regional Order that was rumored. Will that be announced next year or in December, too ?

[Edited 2006-09-22 12:47:03]
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
F22KA
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 8:54 pm

None of the European airliners who have ordered the 380 are going to ask nor accept any compensations as a result of the delays. Just watch and see...
The A-380 project is way to important to EU's image and economy in general and as a result these airliners are going to take the loss. Any press releases to the media regarding payments or sweet deals made by A to any of these airliners, are going to be just smoke screens meant for the public consumption.
 
ZRH
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 9:48 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Yes I am sure LH is aware of the A380 delay and, like EK, they're probably too committed to the plane to walk away from it.

I am always wondering why airlines should cancel because of the delay. The A 380 still stays most probably an excellent aircraft. There is also no other alternative. Even with the delays the A 380 will be in service before a probable 747-8.
 
UA933
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:40 pm

In its size the A380 can't be replaced with any other a/c so my guess is that LH will order even more when they decide by year-end.
My money are on a/c as follows:

20 359 replacing 343
20 3510 replacing 346 and expansion
25 748i replacing 744
10 388 expansion

I just don't think that LH will go 787 due to cockpit commonality with the rest of the fleet but we'll know in a couple of months and I might aswell be completely wrong.
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Thorben
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:48 pm

Quoting Dank (Reply 21):

If Boeing decides to go with thernstretchedrnversion of the 748i, I still don't buy that they will gornfor it. Therngap between the 748i and 380 would, then, likely be toornsmall tornjustify a small fleet of them (even if they go for thern748F, because arnsmall fleet would result in scheduling problems withrncrews, etc. if onerngoes mx).



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 23):
But,rnifrnBoeing does increase the size of the 748i, it will be too closerninrncapacity to the A380. I would be very surprised to see anyrnairline thatrnhas the A380 on order take a larger 748i.

Boeing talks only about stretching the 747-8 to the length of the freighter (76m). Those two meters would only increase the capacity from 450 to 480 seats, still enough room to the A380, which has around 555-600 seats at similar seating.

Quoting UA933 (Reply 34):
20 359 replacing 343
20 3510 replacing 346 and expansion
25 748i replacing 744
10 388 expansion

I agree with it, except for the A380 part. LH has ten options, they can convert them independently from the A350 deal. Why would they need 35 A380s?
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
UA933
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Sat Sep 23, 2006 12:17 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 35):
I agree with it, except for the A380 part. LH has ten options, they can convert them independently from the A350 deal. Why would they need 35 A380s?

I agree that 35 might seem a little to much at the moment but LH said they wanted to increase int. capacity and in a couple of year 2010 and after the demand I think is going to be high enough.
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N328KF
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Sat Sep 23, 2006 12:45 am

Quoting F22KA (Reply 32):
None of the European airliners who have ordered the 380 are going to ask nor accept any compensations as a result of the delays. Just watch and see...

Do you seriously mean to suggest that just because EADS/Airbus has lost some of their business sense regarding the A380, that the management of Air France/KLM and Lufthansa also have? Those two companies are both public and answer to shareholders. If they did not take the prudent measure of trying to squeeze Airbus, they would be shirking their duty as corporate officers. With that said, they might not crow as loudly as Singapore Airlines or Emirates Airline, but they would be opening themselves up to charges of mismanagement if they did not at least send Airbus a nastygram demanding compensation.

[Edited 2006-09-22 17:50:12]
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Tom_EDDF
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Sat Sep 23, 2006 2:47 am

Quoting F22KA (Reply 32):
None of the European airliners who have ordered the 380 are going to ask nor accept any compensations as a result of the delays. Just watch and see...
The A-380 project is way to important to EU's image and economy in general and as a result these airliners are going to take the loss. Any press releases to the media regarding payments or sweet deals made by A to any of these airliners, are going to be just smoke screens meant for the public consumption.

May I remind you, the EU is not the Sovjet Union and we're not in the 1970's or 1980's... Neither are Lufthansa nor Air France state owned kolkhozes....
 
columba
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut

Sat Sep 23, 2006 4:16 am

I have just fund another LH thread with an article from aviationow. Since this thread was not very popular (only 4 replies) I will post a part of the article here because I think it is very interesting especially if you see it in the context with the statement from Nico Bucholz above:

Quote:

Yesterday's order is part of a broader fleet renewal program that includes the decision on how to replace 30 Boeing 747-400s. Lufthansa is studying orders for more A380s, the 747-8, and also the 777-300ER. A decision on the A350 or the 787 is not expected in the near term, as executives said they needed more time to study the revised Airbus proposal.


The full article here
and here is what Mr.Bucholz said yesterday:

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
The airline will stick with an order for 15
Airbus A380s, whose delivery has been delayed, without seeking to
buy any more, he said......`

The way I read it is that in Decemeber there will only be a decision for the 747-400 replacement. The decision between the A350 and the 787 as an A340-300 replacement will follow later.
According to Mr Buchholz more A380s are not an option anymore as a 747-400 replacement.
So if I am assuming right LH at the moment is only evaluating if the 777-300ER or the 747-8 is the better 747-400 replacement ?
Any thoughts ?

[Edited 2006-09-22 21:29:33]
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
dank
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Sat Sep 23, 2006 6:14 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 22):
Quoting Dank (Reply 19):But if the 787 is too small for them before, why isn't it now?
They have said the -9 is the minimum they would get and they would prefer a stretched version the -10. Let´s see and wait what Boeing is offering them. LIke you said $$ will be a huge factor.
But I think this delay has shown that you can not necessarily rely on one manufacturer and that you need options.
LH had a positive experience with a mixed A320/737 fleet for nearly 20 years now, AF is happy with a mixed A330, A340 and 777 fleet, before they used 767 together with Airbus widebodies, SQ and SU will operate 777 and A350s together.

I was responding to your comment in the same line that suggested that you thought that LH thinks that the 787 was too small, but you see them ordering it. Which didn't make much sense to me. A bit obviously depends on what Boeing comes up with the 787-10.

As for the mixed fleet. If LH is planning to replace 20-30 343s with both 787s and 350s they would be absolutely nuts (I assume that you mean that SQ and SU will be operating 787s and 350s together not 777s and 350s since the goal for SQ is to replace the 772s eventually). I don't think that they have enough widebodies in that size range that need replacing near term (i.e. the 333s and the 346s aren't going to be replaced any time soon in the LH fleet) that would justifiy a mixed fleet like SQ (who is conceivably going to buy 40 and 40 within the next decade). And I think the SU comparison is bogus because they aren't buying the fleet for efficiency in operation, but to satisfy political pressures. They are beyond nuts if they buy 11 and 11 because of the small subfleet sizes and they are nuts if they buy 44 and only really need 22.

cheers.
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Sat Sep 23, 2006 6:20 am

Quoting F22KA (Reply 32):
None of the European airliners who have ordered the 380 are going to ask nor accept any compensations as a result of the delays.

Says who?

Quoting F22KA (Reply 32):
The A-380 project is way to important to EU's image and economy in general and as a result these airliners are going to take the loss.

I didn't know that the EU owns and runs all these airlines...  Yeah sure


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
columba
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Sat Sep 23, 2006 3:25 pm

Quoting Dank (Reply 40):

I was responding to your comment in the same line that suggested that you thought that LH thinks that the 787 was too small, but you see them ordering it.

Well they said the -9 is the minimum for them and if Boeing comes up with a -10 I can see them ordering it.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
Thorben
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Sun Sep 24, 2006 1:45 am

Quoting UA933 (Reply 36):

I agree that 35 might seem a little to much at the moment but LH said they wanted to increase int. capacity and in a couple of year 2010 and after the demand I think is going to be high enough.

OK, but 35 A380, 25 747-8, and 20 A350-1000? Plus A346 and A359? Still seems too much to me. I think it will depend on how plans to expand FRA are going. With a fourth runway and more terminals LH could really expand. Otherwise they'll need more inter-conti flights from secondary airports like MUC, HAM or SXF. But then they would need smaller planes.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
zvezda
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Sun Sep 24, 2006 2:03 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
Well I did note in another thread that I wondered if the A380's delays have affected those customer's views towards the A350, which is also supposed to have very fancy lighting and IFE which will require significant wiring.

Airbus will not make such a grevious mistake again. Also, the wiring of the A350 will be simpler than for the WhaleJet.
 
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LTU932
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Sun Sep 24, 2006 2:41 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 43):
With a fourth runway and more terminals LH could really expand. Otherwise they'll need more inter-conti flights from secondary airports like MUC, HAM or SXF.

Why SXF? Don't you mean TXL or eventually the new BBI?
 
justloveplanes
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Sun Sep 24, 2006 5:57 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 39):
The way I read it is that in Decemeber there will only be a decision for the 747-400 replacement. The decision between the A350 and the 787 as an A340-300 replacement will follow later.
According to Mr Buchholz more A380s are not an option anymore as a 747-400 replacement.
So if I am assuming right LH at the moment is only evaluating if the 777-300ER or the 747-8 is the better 747-400 replacement ?
Any thoughts ?

Things are pretty fluid now, so it's hard to say with certainty how accurate these articles are in December, but I think what you said about the 748 and 773ER make sense. I don't know what near future means re 350X/787 so they still might have something in December, but like you, I doubt. That's a lot of fleet to commit to / work through at any one time.

LH (being the thorough and organized company that they are) will take its time to work through the 350XWB/787 choice when it has all the data - which it doesn't have yet. I would guess 6 months at a bare minimum after the 350XWB launch, an only then if delivery slot pressure makes them act that fast. Otherwise a year or more.

JLP
 
columba
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut

Tue Sep 26, 2006 5:31 am

Boeing statement on LH´s Airbus order:

Quote:
U.S. planemaker Boeing (BA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) hopes to persuade Deutsche Lufthansa (LHAG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) to buy its new long-haul aircraft after losing out on a short-haul plane order to European rival Airbus, a Boeing official said on Monday.

Lufthansa said again last Wednesday that it planned to make a decision on the expansion and renewal of its long-haul fleet by the end of this year after announcing 30 orders and 30 options for Airbus single-aisle A320-family aircraft and five widebody A330s.

Boeing was left out of negotiations for this deal, Marketing Vice President Randy Baseler told Reuters in Frankfurt on Monday. "They never really asked us to participate," he said. "It was just a follow-on order to airplanes they already have."

But Baseler said Boeing may yet sell its planned enlarged 747 jumbo and its new mid-sized 787 Dreamliner to the German airline.

"We are very much involved with our 787 and our 747-8," Baseler said. "We think those two airplanes will provide significant value for them."

Lufthansa has said it is looking to modernise its fleet of 30 390-seat Boeing 747-400s. It has already ordered 15 of the delayed, 555-seat Airbus A380s, which it plans to turn into its flagship aircraft.

The German carrier is also mulling the replacement of its 28 247-seat Airbus A340-300s.

It is weighing up the relative benefits of the Boeing 787, which has already notched up 397 firm orders and is due to enter service in 2008, and the planned new Airbus A350, expected to arrive four years later.

Baseler said the 787 would enable Lufthansa to provide more direct services between cities on different continents as it faces congestion and a lack of take-off and landing slots at its main Frankfurt hub ahead of the opening of a new runway in 2010.



http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...ING-LUFTHANSA.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna
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Johnny
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Tue Sep 26, 2006 5:59 am

I am really getting tired of the argumentation that the B787 is coming out 4 years earlier than the A350.That is correct - if LH would be interested in the -8...

But they have only strong interest in the -10x which has the same EIS as the A359...

So, Mr. Basler, where is your advantage for the Boeing?

- the smaller fuselage diameter?
- the lack of crew commonality?

[Edited 2006-09-25 23:13:35]
 
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Stitch
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RE: LH To Place Long Haul Order In Dec. Won't Cut A380

Tue Sep 26, 2006 6:03 am

Well perhaps the 787-8 would offer LH opportunities they couldn't exploit with the A332? Yes, I know they are "on record" for stating they only want the -9 and -10, but perhaps in all those "involvements" Mr. Baseler might have changed that view a bit?

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