MRURUN
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NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 7:38 am

Hear that this may be announced shortly, not, however, in relation to PPT-LAX. Does this mean the AKL-RAR-PPT-LAX 767 flight will become AKL-PPT-LAX? What about the once weekly RAR-NAN-AKL?
Who would/could/should take over the RAR-LAX sector?
 
Motorhussy
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 8:41 am

Maybe NZ1 can shed some light here?

Maybe it'll become AKL-RAR-HNL with an A320 and AKL-LAX-PPT-GIG return with an NZ 772; the direct AKL-PPT being taken up with a codeshare using TN metal. Direct HNL could be dropped and picked up using A320 one stops via RAR, APW and TBU.

Regards
MH
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QFSYD744
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:18 am

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 1):
Maybe it'll become AKL-RAR-HNL with an A320

This would seem to be a more cost effective utilization. One question though, what is the demand for RAR from HNL? Wouldnt APW be a better option?

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 1):
AKL-LAX-PPT-GIG return with an NZ 772

AKL-GRU-GIG, would be a much smoother, and cost efficient use of a 777-200. American Airlines would be sure to sink their teeth into LAX-GIG with a 763 (a far stetch of the imagination) before NZ forecasts the route. However, arent JJ and Ocean Air Brazil looking at LAX?
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:46 am

Quoting QFSYD744 (Reply 2):
This would seem to be a more cost effective utilization. One question though, what is the demand for RAR from HNL? Wouldnt APW be a better option?

Well, it's another option. I suggested that NZ may look at APW, TBU and RAR as stopping points for HNL flights. There are currently 3 x 763 flights weekly going AKL-HNL. Apparently these have been underperforming for sometime. The attraction for Kiwis to Hawai'i has diminished as the South Pacific's increased, but Pacific Islanders travel to Hawai'i and Hawai'ian tourists like to visit the South Pacific. Why not replace the 3 x 763 direct flights with 3 or 4 one-stop flights through the Samoa, Tonga and the Cooks?

Quoting QFSYD744 (Reply 2):
AKL-GRU-GIG, would be a much smoother, and cost efficient use of a 777-200. American Airlines would be sure to sink their teeth into LAX-GIG with a 763 (a far stetch of the imagination) before NZ forecasts the route.

I'd mentioned this because there had been talk in the past about NZ wanting to keep the PPT-LAX leg (PPT to AKL via RAR has been underperforming) and the possibility of a TN/NZ codeshare to South America, specifically GIG. This wouldn't be for taking passengers from LAX to GIG, rather passengers from GIG and LAX to and from PPT. Not my idea, just what others had pontificated about previously, but has some merit.

Regards
MH
come visit the south pacific
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:53 am

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 3):
This wouldn't be for taking passengers from LAX to GIG, rather passengers from GIG and LAX to and from PPT. Not my idea, just what others had pontificated about previously, but has some merit.

The O/D from GIG to PPT is slim to none. Oddly enough I have seen a good number of Brasilians in Hawaii (namely Maui and Oahu) since there are large ex-pat Brasilians there. However, stranger things have happened such as PTY-LAX on BR, and LAX-MEX on MH.
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:01 am

This is where I wish NZ had bought 73Gs and NGs, so they could operate long range Pacific flights. IMO one of these configured well could succeed on an AKL-Islands-LAX flight. A320 hasn't the range for this and the 767's could be better utilised.

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 1):
AKL-LAX-PPT-GIG

Would this be viable? It seems as though there is a massive backtrack; and what would the timing be like? The order still hasn't come through.. And if it includes some planes of the direct AKL-South America range/ETOPS capability, let's hope they fly there direct.
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:14 am

im not sure where your getting your sorces from, the PPT flights are being looked at, tho nothing firm yet, might be something after the weekend , and at present HNL is staying put with 763's operations,

oh well back to the classroom for some more training hehheheh!!
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:30 am

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 1):
Maybe NZ1 can shed some light here?

Would love to, just can't at the moment sorry!!

NZ1
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LipeGIG
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:42 am

Quoting QFSYD744 (Reply 2):
However, arent JJ and Ocean Air Brazil looking at LAX?

Ocean Air, but only with stop at BOG.

Quoting QFSYD744 (Reply 4):
I'd mentioned this because there had been talk in the past about NZ wanting to keep the PPT-LAX leg (PPT to AKL via RAR has been underperforming) and the possibility of a TN/NZ codeshare to South America, specifically GIG. This wouldn't be for taking passengers from LAX to GIG, rather passengers from GIG and LAX to and from PPT. Not my idea, just what others had pontificated about previously, but has some merit.

If there is a route GIG-LAX for sure will be interesting without RG service. California is a growing partner for Brazil and a 2 to 3 weekly flights will be profitable.

Quoting QFSYD744 (Reply 4):
The O/D from GIG to PPT is slim to none. Oddly enough I have seen a good number of Brasilians in Hawaii (namely Maui and Oahu) since there are large ex-pat Brasilians there. However, stranger things have happened such as PTY-LAX on BR, and LAX-MEX on MH.

Easy to see PPT-LAX LAX-GIG but GIG to PPT is not a market for sure.

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Motorhussy
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:35 pm

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 8):
but GIG to PPT is not a market for sure

Only because no-one's ever done it before. There are a lot of very wealthy Brasillians in Sao Paulo who'd love the chance to holiday in French Polynesia, why not give them the opportunity?

Quoting NZ1 (Reply 7):
Would love to, just can't at the moment sorry!!

Great, so there is a story pending. Looking forward to it.

Regards
MH
come visit the south pacific
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 2:57 pm

I am bit confused..........is the rumour that NZ will only fly AKL RAR and will code share with TN PPT LAX. So then who will fly RAR LAX or will NZ add on RAR PPT??
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:22 pm

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 3):
There are currently 3 x 763 flights weekly going AKL-HNL. Apparently these have been underperforming for sometime.

When I flew NZ11 from HNL-AKL on August 13th, the flight was roughly 90% full, that flight wasnt underperforming that day.
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:49 pm

Quoting 777ER (Reply 11):
When I flew NZ11 from HNL-AKL on August 13th, the flight was roughly 90% full, that flight wasnt underperforming that day.

But the question that has to be asked is how many of these passengers were high paying one and also what is the income vs the outgoings like.  Smile
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 4:27 pm

Quoting NZ560 (Reply 12):
Quoting 777ER (Reply 11):
When I flew NZ11 from HNL-AKL on August 13th, the flight was roughly 90% full, that flight wasnt underperforming that day.

But the question that has to be asked is how many of these passengers were high paying one and also what is the income vs the outgoings like.

Yes I know that, but I doubt an A320 operating to/from HNL via the Pacific Islands would be enough capicity. More like 5+ weekly services would cover the 3x B763 services. I think SJ operating the service would be better
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koruman
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 7:45 pm

Firstly, there is plenty GRU/GIG-PPT traffic, but it currently has to route via Santiago and Easter Island on LAN Chile. Brazil is a major target market for Bora Bora luxury traffic.

The real reason, of course, for GRU/GIG-PPT flights would be to allow flights between Brazil and Japan without a transit in the USA, largely for Visa reasons. NZ would fly Brazil-Tahiti, and Air Tahiti Nui would fly Tahiti-Japan, but Varig would put their code on the whole thing.

Having said that, the three-way Air NZ / Air Tahiti Nui / Varig codeshare is currently off the table, as Varig is not really able to commit to anything.

Secondly, yes, Air NZ is reviewing the AKL-RAR-PPT-LAX flights. As we all know, AKL-RAR-PPT is mainly Economy traffic, while PPT-LAX has untold Business Premier and Premium Economy potential, basically because Bora Bora is such a high-end market.

Last I heard, it looked as if Air NZ was considering coordinating the following:

AKL-RAR-PPT-RAR-HNL with an A320, connecting at PPT with....

AKL-LAX-PPT-LAX-NAN-LAX-PPT-LAX-AKL flown by a 777

This would cut out the mainly Economy Class-laden AKL-NAN and AKL-PPT sectors while allowing affluent Americans and Europeans to fly to NAN and PPT in Business Premier and Premium Economy, with much higher yields than are possible with the 767s.

There would be connecting AKL-NAN and AKL-RAR-PPT A320 flights with the same flight number to maintain the illusion of a single flight number AKL-NAN-LAX and AKL-RAR-PPT-LAX.

This would also enable Americans to still get to RAR on Air NZ with a one hour transit at PPT, with the difference being that instead of being a through flight on a 767 it would be a 777 from LAX to PPT, connecting to an A320 for the 90 minute flight on to RAR.
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 7:57 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 14):
Brazil is a major target market for Bora Bora luxury traffic.

Why would anyone in Brasil visit Tahiti when the have paradise literally within their own borders? If there was such demand why hasnt RG, JJ, or TN tried the route?


Quoting Koruman (Reply 14):
AKL-RAR-PPT is mainly Economy traffic

So then the bet fit for such a route would be the A320. Would it not?
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koruman
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 9:50 pm

1. Because Bora Bora is the world's most beautiful island and has plenty of ultra-luxury resorts. But there aren't enough rich Americans and Japanese to fill the resorts, so the Tahitians are looking to get more Australian, European and Brazilian tourists. (And it's working - I bumped into Francesco Totti on Taha'a a couple of months ago, and he was one of many, many Italians).

2. The flights don't already exist because Varig is bankrupt and Air Tahiti Nui has only 5 fully-utilised planes. But LAN Chile has no trouble getting 80%+ loads on Santiago-Papeete, and most of the Business Class passengers are Brazilians. So it's far to suggest that Brazil-PPT might work.

3. A320s on AKL-RAR-PPT? That's what I suggested isn't it?
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Fri Sep 22, 2006 11:19 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
Francesco Totti

Isn't that the spitting football player?

I thought it is high end  Wink
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 3:02 am

I flew NZ23 from LAX to PPT earlier this month and the flight was pretty much full in Business (although there are not a lot of business class seats in the first place) and Economy was about 60% full.

A few days later when I rejoined NZ23 for PPT-RAR-AKL, there was a lot of connecting traffic flying LAX-PPT-RAR, getting off at RAR, and then a large tour group filling up most of economy joining the flight for the final RAR-AKL sector

The plane was quite old compared to other NZ 767s I've been on and the business class seats didn't look very comfortable at all. Maybe they use the oldest 767s on this route?
 
MRURUN
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 6:05 am

I got my source from the Cooks. So I take it there is a 'move' coming up! NZ was always my first choice due to the 767's. I've taken the PAcific Blue 73 and it was uncomfortable. However, NZ have been appealing due to being able to burn miles, and, as with getting 'used' (ahem) to FR, i suppose pax will get used to the smaller aircraft.

Do NZ still operate the RAR-NAN sector? Will it last? What will the frequency be like on this and the proposed PPT-RAR-AKL 'connector' route?
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 6:09 am

Yes the RAR NAN sector runs once a week with a 737.
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koruman
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 9:17 pm

Bur RAR-NAN is all Economy class.....
 
QFSYD744
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:05 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
But there aren't enough rich Americans and Japanese to fill the resorts, so the Tahitians are looking to get more Australian, European and Brazilian tourists. (And it's working - I bumped into Francesco Totti on Taha'a a couple of months ago, and he was one of many, many Italians).

Tahiti is a destination yes. However, one must not discount the flocks of European tourists who arrive in droves for their holidays to Seychelles, Mauritius, and Maldives. In addition the treck from Milan to Paris to Los Angeles to Papeete. Or the treck from Milan to New York to Papeete would seem a bit out of the way when there a vast numbers of flights weekly from Milan to the Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles.

Le Taha'a is nice, however the pesty bugs were enough to drive more than one guest mad. Le Taha'a is nice, yet holds nothing when compared side by side with St. Regis Bora Bora, or Le Meridien Bora Bora.

Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
The flights don't already exist because Varig is bankrupt and Air Tahiti Nui has only 5 fully-utilised planes.

TN cant even fill JFK-PPT, where there is what they thought was a strong demand. How are they going to fill and A343 to GRU, if JFK cant even pull a profit?

Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
But LAN Chile has no trouble getting 80%+ loads on Santiago-Papeete, and most of the Business Class passengers are Brazilians

80% loads on a flight that stops at two destinations is nothing to gleam about. However, one could argue that the Business Class cabin on LA is not as large as that on AF, and if one is trying to compare using that model, they are missing a point. That point being that SCL-PPT is not daily. Relys heavily on travel/tour operator contracts and does not sustain the 80% LF year round.

Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
So it's far to suggest that Brazil-PPT might work.

Yes, very far...
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QFSYD744
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Sat Sep 23, 2006 11:06 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
But there aren't enough rich Americans and Japanese to fill the resorts, so the Tahitians are looking to get more Australian, European and Brazilian tourists. (And it's working - I bumped into Francesco Totti on Taha'a a couple of months ago, and he was one of many, many Italians).

Tahiti is a destination yes. However, one must not discount the flocks of European tourists who arrive in droves for their holidays to Seychelles, Mauritius, and Maldives. In addition the treck from Milan to Paris to Los Angeles to Papeete. Or the treck from Milan to New York to Papeete would seem a bit out of the way when there a vast numbers of flights weekly from Milan to the Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles.

Le Taha'a is nice, however the pesty bugs were enough to drive more than one guest mad. Le Taha'a is nice, yet holds nothing when compared side by side with St. Regis Bora Bora, or Le Meridien Bora Bora.

Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
The flights don't already exist because Varig is bankrupt and Air Tahiti Nui has only 5 fully-utilised planes.

TN cant even fill JFK-PPT, where there is what they thought was a strong demand. How are they going to fill and A343 to GRU, if JFK cant even pull a profit?

Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
But LAN Chile has no trouble getting 80%+ loads on Santiago-Papeete, and most of the Business Class passengers are Brazilians

80% loads on a flight that stops at two destinations is nothing to gleam about. However, one could argue that the Business Class cabin on LA is not as large as that on AF, and if one is trying to compare using that model, they are proving a point. That point being that SCL-PPT is not daily. Relys heavily on travel/tour operator contracts and does not sustain the 80% LF year round.

Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
So it's far to suggest that Brazil-PPT might work.

Yes, very far...
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LipeGIG
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 12:35 am

Quoting MotorHussy (Reply 9):
Only because no-one's ever done it before. There are a lot of very wealthy Brasillians in Sao Paulo who'd love the chance to holiday in French Polynesia, why not give them the opportunity?

I agree that Brazil keep a strong base of very wealthy people, but French Polynesia is not the only one destination. The flight could not rely only on this, it needs to also provide possible connection to other places. We have the Caribbean closer and TAM only flies charters eventually with A319/A320 with stops at MAO. The world is full of beautiful places including ours Fernando de Noronha Islands.

Quoting Koruman (Reply 14):
Firstly, there is plenty GRU/GIG-PPT traffic, but it currently has to route via Santiago and Easter Island on LAN Chile. Brazil is a major target market for Bora Bora luxury traffic.

The real reason, of course, for GRU/GIG-PPT flights would be to allow flights between Brazil and Japan without a transit in the USA, largely for Visa reasons. NZ would fly Brazil-Tahiti, and Air Tahiti Nui would fly Tahiti-Japan, but Varig would put their code on the whole thing.

Some travel agents sell PPT here, it's a US$ 4,500 to US$ 7,000 "toy" and it's personal. Bora Bora is very exciting, but Brazil probably is not the only one on LAN flights, you can see people from Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Peru and other countries. Brazil is in front of the Atlantic, and will be not an option for people from Peru and Argentina to PPT, should the flight be profitable without the other connections ? The fact that they establish a non-stop will allow to increase the number of Brazilians visiting PPT so much ?
Agree that it could work as GIG-PPT-NRT for example.

Quoting QFSYD744 (Reply 15):
Why would anyone in Brasil visit Tahiti when the have paradise literally within their own borders? If there was such demand why hasnt RG, JJ, or TN tried the route?

Because the demand is really eventual. I told about Caribbean, even closer and without a direct link to Rio or Sao Paulo. And there are places like Bahamas, British Virgin Islands and Cayman Islands that become major financial centers for Brazilian Corporations. Petrobras, Vale do Rio Doce (looking for Canadian Inco nowadays with a huge credit line of US$ 18 billion), Votorantim, Bradesco, Itau, Banco do Brasil, Unibanco, Ambev, Suzano, Souza Cruz (British American Tobaco), CSN, Usiminas... all major brazilian corporates has business in the Caribe and all the traffic is thru MIA. We all know there are marvellous places at Caribe.

Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
2. The flights don't already exist because Varig is bankrupt and Air Tahiti Nui has only 5 fully-utilised planes. But LAN Chile has no trouble getting 80%+ loads on Santiago-Papeete, and most of the Business Class passengers are Brazilians. So it's far to suggest that Brazil-PPT might work.

Chile is the closer country, Brazil is on the other side of South America and will not rely with connections like SCL could.

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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 12:05 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 14):
AKL-RAR-PPT-RAR-HNL with an A320, connecting at PPT with....

AKL-LAX-PPT-LAX-NAN-LAX-PPT-LAX-AKL flown by a 777

Thats the lines I was thinking along aswell!

Hopefully the 777's will soon be on PPT-LAX.
 
koruman
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Sun Sep 24, 2006 1:03 pm

Sounds like I was barking up the wrong tree.....

I spoke yesterday with a friend who works in the French Polynesian territorial government, who told me what he says the recent Air NZ / Air Tahiti Nui negotiations covered.

As you know, there are currently 19 weekly PPT-LAX flights (13 TN, 3 NZ and 3 AF), all with loads over 70% in general and over 95% in Business Class. There are also 3 weekly PPT-JFK flights on TN, which have rapidly improving loads, but from a low base.

Supposedly, Air Tahiti Nui wanted three things.

1) They want to codeshare with Air NZ on all flights into and out of Tahiti to the USA.

2) They want Air NZ to buy 35% of the seats on PPT-JFK, and coordinate their flights from AKL to PPT to feed in to this, and....

3) They want Air NZ to switch from flying LAX-PPT to SFO-PPT, so they don't actually compete, but they want it to be a 777 not 767 flight if they're putting their (TN's) code on it, as the Air NZ 767 product is considered to be one that Air Tahiti Nui's passengers would not accept.

The idea of switching NZ 22/23 from AKL-(RAR)-PPT-LAX to SFO instead of LAX is one which has taken me by surprise, and I'm not sure what I make of it.

The obvious first thoughts I have are:

1) The LA / Orange County local market is three times as big as the San Francisco / San Jose / Silicon Valley one, maybe double when you correct it for the target market of people earning over $100,000 per year.

2) NZ 1 from London delivers British and European tourists connecting at LAX to fly on to PPT and, to a much lesser extent, RAR. There's no such Air NZ feed at SFO.

3) For it to work, I think Air NZ would need to coordinate the arrival at SFO of three 777s from SYD, AKL and AKL via PPT, and operate one of them on to the UK, and one of them on to Chicago or New York, with the third just turning round and flying back. That would mean that the SFO-PPT sector would have feed from both the UK and Chicago or New York. (Cabotage rules mean that an ORD-SFO sector can only carry passengers arriving at or departing SFO on Air NZ. If there are three aircraft arriving at SFO feeding into one continuing to ORD/JFK there MIGHT be enough traffic for that leg to work, but I'm doubtful about that).

I really doubt that Air NZ considers PPT to be important enough to rearrange its flights from LAX to SFO, so I can't see this happening.

BTW, with regard to other comments on this topic, yes, BOB is a lot further from Europe than the Maldives, Seychelles or Caribbean. But it's a more stunning destination, and because it's pretty universally accepted as the ultimate island destination there will always be those willing to pay more and travel further to get there. And that is what full-service airlines want from any leisure destination: yields as high (or higher) than a business destination. It's why British Airways flew Concorde only to JFK and Barbados, because Sandy Lane clients are as high-yield as any businessman, and in many cases MUCH higher.

Sadly, it's also why RAR is in a very precarious situation. It will always get low yield economy passengers from East Coast Australia and New Zealand, but if you were from New York or London and were willing to fly long-haul in Business Class for the ultimate vacation, would you fly on NZ 22/23 past Tahiti (and Bora Bora) to go to stay at a very expensive resort like Rumours of Romance or Reflections of Rarotonga? Or go to the Pacific Resort on Aitutaki instead of the St Regis Bora Bora? I find it hard to imagine!
 
NZFan
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:57 am

Quoting Koruman (Reply 26):
Europe than the Maldives, Seychelles or Caribbean. But it's a more stunning destination, and because it's pretty universally accepted as the ultimate island destination there will always be those willing to pay more and travel further to get there. And that is

I'm sorry if i'm going to disagree with you on that one. Surely BOR is a nice place and beautiful (I was born and brought up in Tahiti) but you can't say that it is a more stunning destination.
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 6:29 am

Quoting Koruman (Reply 26):
because it's pretty universally accepted as the ultimate island destination there will always be those willing to pay more and travel further to get there.

"Universally accepted" by who, exactly? Have you ever been to the Maldives? Or Zanzibar? Or any number of Caribbean and south-east asian islands? From my experience and the general reaction I get, Tahiti is horrendously overpriced for what it offers, espeically in comparison to these other destinations mentioned.
 
koruman
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 8:01 am

Er, actually, yes I have.

The Maldives and most of the West Indian islands are flat coral islands. The Maldives have nice turquoise water, but most of the West Indies don't. The Seychelles are prettier than Mauritius, but the lagoons aren't as pretty as Bora Bora's.

In terms of beauty both in the lagoon and onshore, Bora Bora has by far the best combination. St Lucia has the mountains but not the beaches. The Maldives have the beaches but not the mountains.

Zanzibar isn't in the equation for a high-yield (read Business Class) leisure route, as it has barely any ultra-pricey super-luxury accommodation.

The only two destinations, market-wise, which approach Bora Bora and have lots of expensive 5 star accommodation are the Maldives and Mauritius. But nowhere in the Maldives gets more than about 6 feet above see level, so no mountains here. And Mauritius is, well, just seedy really. Anyone who has been to both the Seychelles and Mauritius will say that the beauty of the Seychelles outclasses Mauritius, there just isn't the same number of luxury rooms there.

So, in terms of the most spectacularly beautiful tropical island with enough 5 star hotel rooms to nourish a full-fare Business Class leisure market, Bora Bora (and PPT airport) wins by an absolute mile.

And Aerokiwi, your comment about French Polynesia being overpriced is actually the whole point. It is a destination where 2000 couples per night have decided to pay a minimum of NZ$2000 per night on an overwater bungalow (plus more for food, excursions, black pearls etc). This market is pretty obviously only going to fly flat-bed Business Class or First Class, and the further 1000 couples staying at Le Meridien and Sheraton hotels is highly likely to fly Premium Economy. Air New Zealand is suffering at the moment because its unrefurbished 767s are outclassed on the route by both competitors, although Air NZ PPT-LAX loads in Business Class still approach 100%.

And so it is an ultra-high yield licence to print money for an airline like Air New Zealand which retains the right to sell 897 seats per week from LAX to PPT because it flew the route in the days before Air Tahiti Nui and Air France.
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:21 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 26):

This further proves that TN is serioulsy scared of NZ and would loose big customers and $$$ if the B777 or even B744 operates the route. Wonder how they would feel if the B789 operated the route?
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 4:22 pm

An interesting analysis Koruman. Never considered it through that lens but it all makes sense the way you put it. Further, I also doubt NZ would consider rerouting it's PPT services on to SFO instead of LAX given the smaller market. Also agree it's time NZ put its 772s on the PPT-LAX run, switching to 320 on the AKL-NAN-RAR-PPT island hopper. NZ would still use 763 for AKL-NAN-LAX, AKL-HNL, AKL-RAR, AKL-APW, AKL-TBU-APW-LAX and trans-tasman...
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:25 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 26):
1) The LA / Orange County local market is three times as big as the San Francisco / San Jose / Silicon Valley one, maybe double when you correct it for the target market of people earning over $100,000 per year.

Unfortunately the some of the information you have provided can be proven inaccurate.

Source: http://www.wikipedia.org

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_locations_by_per_capita_income

Nine of the Top Ten California counties income-wise are in the San Francisco Bay Area/Sacramento region.

In addition let us all know if any of the following are in Southern California:

San Francisco, Atherton, Portola Valley, Hillsborough, Diablo, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Tiburon, Sausalito, Monte Sereno, Los Gatos, Danville, Del Monte Forest, Pebble Beach, Pacific Grove, Rancho Murrieta, El Dorado Hills, Piedmont, Emerald Lake Hills, Loyola, Blackhawk, Alamo, Palo Alto, Pleasonton, Walnut Creek, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, San Mateo, San Rafael, Highlands Ranch, Redwood City, Santa Clara, Freemont, Livermore, Alameda, Berkeley, Castro Valley, Folsom

Quoting Koruman (Reply 26):
The idea of switching NZ 22/23 from AKL-(RAR)-PPT-LAX to SFO instead of LAX is one which has taken me by surprise, and I'm not sure what I make of it.

Why should it take one by suprise Papeete was served nonstop to San Francisco by Qantas, UTA, Air France, and Corse Air. Papeete was served nonstop to Oakland by Minerve, and Corse Air.

Quoting Koruman (Reply 26):
But it's a more stunning destination, and because it's pretty universally accepted as the ultimate island destination

Stunning, Beautiful, all in the eyes of the beholder. By your intents SQ, JL, BA, LH, and EK should all be flying to PPT.

Quoting NZFan (Reply 27):
It's why British Airways flew Concorde only to JFK and Barbados, because Sandy Lane clients are as high-yield as any businessman, and in many cases MUCH higher.

Yet Concorde was never regularly scheduled to Tahiti!

Quoting Koruman (Reply 29):
The Maldives have nice turquoise water

And a number of luxury resorts!  wink 

Quoting Koruman (Reply 29):
ultra-pricey super-luxury

These phrases  rotfl 

Quoting Koruman (Reply 29):
The only two destinations, market-wise, which approach Bora Bora and have lots of expensive 5 star accommodation are the Maldives and Mauritius.

Queensland, Bali, Phuket, Pattaya, Fiji, Barbados, Hawaii, Sardinia, among others!
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:49 pm

Quoting QFSYD744 (Reply 32):
Queensland, Bali, Phuket, Pattaya, Fiji, Barbados, Hawaii, Sardinia, among others!

rotfl

Most of them come not even near to Tahiti.

You are not really comparing Tahiti with sextourisme destinations like Pattayia or the backpacker paradieses of Bail and Queensland?
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:38 pm

Quoting JoFMO (Reply 33):
You are not really comparing Tahiti with sextourisme destinations like Pattayia or the backpacker paradieses of Bail and Queensland?

Sex Tourism? Have you ever been to Bali or Pattaya? There is not one shred of evidence that Ritz Carlton, Four Seasons, Bvlgari, Oberoi, and others have resorts in Bali for Sex Tourism. In regards to Pattaya - There are serious doubts that the throngs of European families with their children are in Pattaya for Sex Tourism.

Where do you get the "Sex Tourism" idea from, it is a gravely unedacted view of both Pattaya and Bali.

When was the last time that Bvlgari, Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, or Oberoi announced a resort in Tahiti?
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:06 am

Quoting QFSYD744 (Reply 34):
Sex Tourism? Have you ever been to Bali or Pattaya

My adjective was only referring to Pattaya, not to Bali.

And to be honest, in Germnay Pattaya is the synonyme for sex tourisme. There is even a famous pop song with one phrase about Pattaya and this kind of tourisme.

Bali is completely different, but also not very high yielding from Europe.

Tahiti / Bora Bora definetely plays in a league of its own. Only compareable with Bahamas and Mauritius.
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:36 am

Quoting JoFMO (Reply 35):
Tahiti / Bora Bora definetely plays in a league of its own. Only compareable with Bahamas and Mauritius

 rotfl 

BAHAMAS???

 rotfl 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 11:06 am

Quoting QFSYD744 (Reply 32):
Queensland, Bali, Phuket, Pattaya, Fiji, Barbados, Hawaii, Sardinia, among others!

I think the poster is betraying the same lack of understanding about French Polynesia which currently impairs Rob Fyfe's judgement.

Queensland has two resorts with average rates greater than A$800 per night (Lizard island and Hayman). French Polynesia has a dozen with rates averaging more than that. Fiji has two, both of them small.

But above all, in Queensland, Bali, Phuket, Pattaya, Fiji, Hawaii and Barbados there are at least ten hotel rooms and backpacker dorms for every 5 star hotel room, so they are traditional low-yield leisure destinations.

Compare to French Polynesia, as follows:

Super-Deluxe hotels (above 5 star, room rates over $1000 per night)
St Regis Bora Bora / Bora Bora Nui / Hotel Bora Bora / Orient Express Bora Bora Lagoon Resort / Le Taha'a Private Island / Inter-Continental Thalasso Bora Bora / Le Moana Inter-Continental Bora Bora / Sofitel Motu Bora Bora / Pearl Beach Bora Bora / Kia Ora Rangiroa
(Four Seasons Bora Bora, Raffles Taha'a and IC-Tetiaroa under construction)

Deluxe 5 star hotels
Sofitel Marara Bora Bora / Sofitel Moorea / Inter-Continental Moorea / Inter-Continental Tahiti / Pearl Beach Moorea / Te Tiare Huahine / Sheraton Moorea

4 star hotels
Sofitel Tahiti / Sheraton Tahiti / Radisson Tahiti / Pearl Beach Manihi / Hawaiki Nui (Pearl Beach) Raiatea / Novotel Bora Bora / Le Maitai Bora Bora / Le Maitai Fakarava / Pearl Beach Nuku Hiva / Pearl Beach Hiva Oa

3 star hotels
Club Med Bora Bora / Eden Beach Bora Bora / Les Tipaniers Moorea / Tiare Tahiti

2 star hotels
Kon Tiki Papeete / Moorea Village

The largest proportion of rooms is in the Super-Deluxe category, and those clients are incontestably Flat Bed Business Premier (or TN First Class) passengers.

The 5 star and 4 star markets are passengers who would probably buy Premium Economy seats if Air New Zealand sold them on LAX-PPT.

So that leaves less than 10% of French Polynesia's hotel beds which are sold to tourists who would choose to fly Economy Class, given the option of Premium Economy or Business Premier, plus the cruise-ship passengers and Club Med guests whose travel agents are contractually obliged to book them on Air Tahiti Nui anyway.

So I really think that LAX-PPT needs to have a lot of Business Class flat beds and Premium Economy seats on it. Air NZ is allowed to sell 897 seats LAX-PPT per week. It should be maximising profits by using an aircraft which can sell mainly high-yield BP and PE seats, even if it means buying a Boeing Business Jet or A319 and configuring it like Eos or Maxjet in an all-Business and Premium Economy format.

It's not as silly as it sounds, which is why Air Tahiti Nui is already doing market research to determine whether it's viable.

Bora Bora airport had never seen a jet before about 2001, and now has multiple private jets decanting passengers each week. Air New Zealand could possibly better use its rights by subcontracting an all-Business Premier / Premium Economy operation to the sort of carrier which already does similar trans-Atlantic operations for Lufthansa and SWISS. The BOB tourist market has changed out of all recognition in just five years. I'd like to see Air New Zealand be the first to adapt to exploit it.

[Edited 2006-09-26 04:43:11]
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:10 pm

On that last point....

Air NZ is currently planning to keep the 4 of its 767-300ER aircraft which it owns, having given back the leased ones. There is no plan to install Business Premier, as the floors would need reinforcing.

It's not totally outlandish to consider using a couple in a way similar to how Maxjet uses its 767, by installing 40 Business Premier beds and moving the 24 current Business class seats further back to be sold as Premium Economy, while keeping say 5 rows of Economy Class (35 seats) and therefore operating the aircraft on LAX-PPT-LAX (and maybe LAX-NAN-LAX) only with 40 Business Premier, 24 Premium Economy and 35 Economy seats for sale.

The rights are currently for a sub-300 seat aircraft three times weekly - 897 seats. That could easily be renegotiated to allow daily flights in this 99 seat configuration. It reduces Air NZ capacity from 897 to 693 seats per week, but would increase the yield exponentially.

The investment this would require is not huge, but the yield on LAX-PPT from 280 Business Premier seats each week plus 156 Premium Economy seats would be massively higher than what the same aircraft currently yields with 72 Business Premier seats each week and 0 Premium Economy. And there would still be nearly 250 Economy class seats per week.
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:20 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 37):
Queensland has two resorts with average rates greater than A$800 per night (Lizard island and Hayman).

Palazzo Versace?

Quoting Koruman (Reply 37):
Super-Deluxe hotels (above 5 star, room rates over $1000 per night)
Bora Bora Nui / Hotel Bora Bora/ Le Taha'a Private Island / Inter-Continental Thalasso Bora Bora / Le Moana Inter-Continental Bora Bora / Sofitel Motu Bora Bora / Pearl Beach Bora Bora / Kia Ora Rangiroa

All of the above mentioned hotels can be had for less than $1000.00 per night. And are rated as per as 5 star hotels.

Quoting Koruman (Reply 37):
Deluxe 5 star hotels
Sofitel Marara Bora Bora / Sofitel Moorea / Inter-Continental Moorea / Inter-Continental Tahiti / Pearl Beach Moorea / Te Tiare Huahine / Sheraton Moorea

4 Star Hotels

Quoting Koruman (Reply 37):
The largest proportion of rooms is in the Super-Deluxe category

Which is aka Luxury

Quoting Koruman (Reply 38):
It's not totally outlandish to consider using a couple in a way similar to how Maxjet uses its 767, by installing 40 Business Premier beds and moving the 24 current Business class seats further back to be sold as Premium Economy, while keeping say 5 rows of Economy Class (35 seats) and therefore operating the aircraft on LAX-PPT-LAX (and maybe LAX-NAN-LAX) only with 40 Business Premier, 24 Premium Economy and 35 Economy seats for sale.

NZ doesnt have the money to operate a fleet of 4 767's in a J class config. In addition LAX-NAN does not have a high premium demand. See as to why QF ulled out, and has opted to code-share with FJ on the route. The same for QF to Tahiti. QF, studies all routes and gave up on PPT due to a number of reasons. At the top of the list was lack of demand for P/J cabins.
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 1:27 pm

The lack of demand which led Qantas to pull out was primarily from Sydney to Nadi and Papeete and anyway pre-dated the opening of most of the super-deluxe hotels on Bora Bora. As I so often write, the explosion in the overwater bungalow market is a 2000-2008 phenomenon, linked to French Polynesian taxation exemptions for construction.

A few of those super-deluxe French Polynesian hotels have a handful of cheaper beach bungalows (e.g. at A$1000 per night for the absolute cheapest rate at St Regis Bora Bora) but they almost all have primarily overwater bungalows which sell for much more. Trust me, the Palazzo Versace or Sheraton Port Douglas are operating in a much cheaper part of the market.

Four Boeing 767s is a small subfleet anyway, but they have the same engines as the 747s. I'm just arguing that you could Eos / Maxjet-configure a pair of them, and use them on niche high-yield routes.

I'm not suggesting using aircraft, engines or seats which aren't already in use elsewhere within the Air NZ fleet. And I'm not advocating an all-Business Premier service (although it's an option for LAX-PPT). I'm clearly saying

40 Business Premier (instead of 24 old lower-yield Business Class)
24 Premium Economy (instead of zero)
35 Economy daily (235 per week, instead of the current half-filled 630).

There is nothing new or unique here to operate. All it involves is converting a pair of aircraft which are already owned by the airline and which have the wrong interior configuration for the potentially lucrative LAX-PPT sector.

And 767-300s with only 99 passengers on board would have much better fuel economy than in their current 234 seat configuration.

[Edited 2006-09-26 06:36:46]
 
kiwiandrew

RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 2:33 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 40):
I'm not suggesting using aircraft, engines or seats which aren't already in use elsewhere within the Air NZ fleet. And I'm not advocating an all-Business Premier service (although it's an option for LAX-PPT). I'm clearly saying

40 Business Premier (instead of 24 old lower-yield Business Class)
24 Premium Economy (instead of zero)
35 Economy daily (235 per week, instead of the current half-filled 630).

There is nothing new or unique here to operate. All it involves is converting a pair of aircraft which are already owned by the airline and which have the wrong interior configuration for the potentially lucrative LAX-PPT sector.

and what routes would they fly on the rest of the time with that configuration ? 3 x PPT-LAX return flights per week is very low utilisation even if the lease rates for these a/c are probably getting lower as they get closer to end of life - I cannot see the economics of converting 2 a/c to a non-standard configuration to operate a route that realistically requires only 0.5 of an a/c - the yields would have to be huge to justify it , wouldn't they ?
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 2:58 pm

No Kiwiandrew, I'm saying operate PPT-LAX as a DAILY service, but with only 99 seats, 64 of which would be high-yield Business Premier and Premium Economy.

It's less overall capacity than Air NZ currently has on the route, but with an emphasis on premium cabins which matches the demographics of the LAX-PPT sector. And the discarded capacity is the Economy seats which are currently half-empty anyway, and earn little revenue.

To connect with NZ 1 you would fly LAX to PPT departing 2130, arriving 0300.

To connect with NZ 2 on to Europe, you would fly PPT-LAX departing 0400, arriving 1530.

The plane would basically just be unused from 1530 to 2130 each day. That's heavy utilisation for an aircraft which is basically already purchased outright.

It's one of the 767s which is currently operated on the route, just in a high-yield configuration. You could think about flying a second one to extend NZ 8 from SFO to LHR as well. We know that SFO Economy class traffic largely vanishes in winter, but premium traffic is a year-round phenomenon. This sort of aircraft configuration would do well on SFO-LHR, and the reduced passenger numbers (99 instead of 234) would permit the range to fly SFO-LHR.
 
kiwiandrew

RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:09 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 42):
No Kiwiandrew, I'm saying operate PPT-LAX as a DAILY service, but with only 99 seats, 64 of which would be high-yield Business Premier and Premium Economy.

aaah , I misunderstood you , sorry . does the current bilateral not specify frequency as well as capacity though ? Could NZ actually opt for daily with low capacity if they wanted or would it require renegotiation?
 
LAXintl
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:15 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 42):
the demographics of the LAX-PPT sector

For having been involved in Tahiti air travel since the mid 1990s, I can certainly say the market is not a particular premium one.

While the islands might host some of the most expensive luxury hotels on the planet, airlines have yet to experience any massive rush for front end premium capacity. Matter of fact, its the back of the bus bargain hunters which have sustained airlines such as Corsair, AOM, and Air Tahiti Nui in the market. ATN for instance manages to fill up its Biz cabins from LA by offering $500 upgrades, not by selling them out at full fares weeks in advance, while Air NZ offers quite discounted business class net rates to the travel agent community.

While there certainly is a premium niche market to Tahiti, its more akin to Hawaii with the clear majority of the people looking to find the cheapest possible air travel they can to reach the islands.
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koruman
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:17 pm

Let's say hypothetically that on LAX-PPT return the airline currently grosses

20 x $4000 for Business pax = $80K (allowing for some redemption seats)
100 x $1000 for Economy pax = $100k. That makes revenue of $180,000 per return LAX-PPT flight. (And we know that at present LAX-PPT revenue subsides losses on AKL-RAR-PPT).

In my configuration let's assume lighter loads but higher yields for a better product:

30 x $6000 for Business Premier pax = $180K
20 x $2000 for Premium Economy pax = $40K
30 x $1000 for Economy pax = $30K. Total revenue of $250,000.

In other words, the LAX-PPT sector, which already has good yields, can yield 30% more by reducing seat numbers by more than half but increasing premium capacity and frequency. And instead of 2 and 3 day crew layovers at PPT, no layover would exceed one day.

In other words, a sector like LAX to PPT which currently earns good money but then loses it again by flying on to RAR and AKL could become a profit-machine by just turning round and going back again to LAX in a low-volume, high-yield configuration
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:27 pm

Laxintl, what you haven't mentioned is that AOM and Corsair are (were) budget carriers, carrying passengers for Nouvelles Frontieres, a bargain-basement French travel agency. And Air Tahiti Nui suffers because over 50% of its passengers are cruise-ship passengers, which is a notoriously price-sensitive economy class market.

Having said that, they do OK in First Class, but struggle relatively with Business Class, in part because they don't have flat-beds either in Business. Air Tahiti Nui Business Class is almost more analogous to Premium Economy, and their First Class is more comparable to Air NZ's Business Premier (only more expensive!).

Private jets are becoming an ever-more popular way of getting to PPT because current TN and NZ services fall short of the accommodation many passengers are on their way to from LAX. I'm suggesting that that market could be targeted on aircraft which still have Premium Economy and Economy cabins, but low volumes allowing rapid boarding and disembarkation.
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 3:47 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 46):
Laxintl, what you haven't mentioned is that AOM and Corsair are (were) budget carriers, carrying passengers for Nouvelles Frontieres, a bargain-basement French travel agency. And Air Tahiti Nui suffers because over 50% of its passengers are cruise-ship passengers, which is a notoriously price-sensitive economy class market.

Right.. There is lots of typical price sensitive tourism to French Polynesia.

Quoting Koruman (Reply 46):
aving said that, they do OK in First Class,

Its one row, 6 seats. Managing to fill 6 seats is hardly proof of a burgeoning high yielding mass market.


No disrespect for your opinions, but I just cant see a primarily premium product being sustained between the West Coast and Tahiti.
I could make the argument about such lets say United Airlines p.s. or Maxjet style product in other markets but this is not one. Its simply not as large as you make it.

p.s.-on another note I'm not sure if you are aware, however AF is discontinuing 3 class service to Tahiti, switching to a 2 class product this fall.
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:00 pm

Does NZ take any freight btwn on the LAX-PPT-RAR-AKL route?
 
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RE: NZ To End RAR-LAX Flights?

Tue Sep 26, 2006 4:08 pm

Quoting Koruman (Reply 38):
Air NZ is currently planning to keep the 4 of its 767-300ER aircraft which it owns, having given back the leased ones. There is no plan to install Business Premier, as the floors would need reinforcing

NZ was always going to keep some B763s left over intill the B789s arrive. Two B763s are staying
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