leelaw
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Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:51 pm

From James Wallace Seattle PI:

...Some A380 customers, most notably Emirates, which has more A380s on order than any other airline, hinted they might reconsider their orders. That could mean opportunities for The Boeing Co. And Boeing could benefit even if there are no defections from the troubled Airbus camp.

"This is a dangerous time for Airbus," said Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group, an industry consulting firm near Washington, D.C.

"This program has always been dangerously dependent on one or two key customers."

Aboulafia said Boeing should be able to sell its 747-8 passenger plane to at least one unhappy A380 customer.

"There would be questions asked if Boeing does not score at least one victory as a result of this," Aboulafia said...

...Aboulafia said he believes the A380 program has other issues as well. The plane may be overweight, he said, which would affect its performance. And that could explain why the Singapore Airlines plane that is now in flight testing will be further delayed before it is delivered to the airline...


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/287445_airbusdelay04.html

Some interesting comments from Mr. Aboulafia and others in this article.
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Msl747
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:55 pm

Yeah, I was thinking about this while reading some of the 380 topics. This is obviously a good thing for Boeing.
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SInGAPORE_AIR
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:56 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Aboulafia said he believes the A380 program has other issues as well. The plane may be overweight, he said, which would affect its performance

In the conference call, the EADS executives maintained that the A380 exceeded many expectations in terms of performance.

Singapore Airlines Limited when signing an LoI in July 2006:
“Separately, Airbus has demonstrated to Singapore Airlines’ satisfaction that the engineering design of the A380 is sound. It has performed well in flight and certification tests, and the delays in its delivery have been caused more by production, rather than technical, issues." - Chew Choon Seng.

Lufthansa has also been quoted in the past 18 hours that the A380 is going to be a fine aircraft.
Anyone can fly, only the best Soar.
 
n844aa
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 1:58 pm

http://brechlinmedia.com/owls/threadgoing.jpg

Normally I don't like to make contentless posts, but I could probably sit down right now and write the inevitable arc of this thread.
New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
 
gunsontheroof
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 2:06 pm

Quoting Msl747 (Reply 1):
Yeah, I was thinking about this while reading some of the 380 topics. This is obviously a good thing for Boeing.

Not necessarily. Personally, I think that the slow sales and technical problems of the A380 are a ratification of Boeing's decision not to pursue the VLA market, but that doesn't mean Boeing has much to gain from it. I seriously doubt airlines are going to start dumping their A380 orders and lining up for the 747i just because things are going so poorly with the A380 right now. At most, Boeing might get some "we were right, you were wrong" jeers out of this, but not much else. To me, this situation is truely unfortunate for Airbus, as there's undoubtedly much more to be gained from pouring the massive amount of effort required for the A380 into the increasingly formidable A350 program.

Of course, I could be wrong. If Airbus rights their ship and the A380 proves to be a game-changer in the world market, more power to them.
 
CWFan
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 2:29 pm

Why on earth would Emirates dump what have to be fire-sale prices on A380s (when you figure the delay compensation) and buy anything else (i.e., 748's)?

Makes no sense.
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 2:42 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
"There would be questions asked if Boeing does not score at least one victory as a result of this," Aboulafia said...

I agree with that - if Boeing can't sell any B748i as a result of the further massive delay, then one has to wonder about Boeing's product.

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
The plane may be overweight, he said, which would affect its performance.

Overweight, structural issues, wake turbulence - speculations will be endless.


PH
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BoomBoom
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:03 pm

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 6):
Overweight, structural issues, wake turbulence

All of the above?

We won't know for at least another year.
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PlaneHunter
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:08 pm

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 7):
We won't know for at least another year.

Airbus should deliver a comprehensive explanation as soon as possible to regain credibility and prevent further speculations in the media - but I'm not optimistic about that.


PH
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bringiton
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:09 pm

Boeing cannot sell the 747-8 to capetalize on the a380 delay simply because i seriously doubt that they can deliver it in time . Whats worst for emirates , loose money on the a380 due to lost revenue , order the 747-8 which they wont get eariler to the a380's anyway and loose more money?? The delay will be used to get compensation and we wont see any worthwile migration other then maybe a customer who either leaves because they have had it with airbus and the a380 and arent being offered a good enough ofset package or those that are last in line to whom the 747-8 can still offer some economy . Emirates might cancel some orders and give them to boeing but they will surely be getting the discounted initial a380's they ordered and will be duely compensated by airbus!

[Edited 2006-10-04 08:11:19]
 
manni
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boo

Wed Oct 04, 2006 3:44 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
...Some A380 customers, most notably Emirates, which has more A380s on order than any other airline, hinted they might reconsider their orders.

Some suggested that EK could cancel A380s without penalty. This concerns the cancelled aircraft. If EK does cancel a part of her huge order, how would this affect the purchase price of the remaining A380s? Assuming that EK has a contract and a unit price based on the purchase of 43 A380s. An airline that buys 43 A380s wont be paying the same price for each A380 as compared to an airline buying 25 A380s.

It certainly wouldn't be good for Airbus if they did cancel a part of their order, but the financial damage could partially be recouped. EK's remaining A380s might bring in more each as compared to being part of a contract for 43 aircraft. Obviously this is all depends on the terms written in the contract between EK and Airbus.

No details are known to outside parties. Therefore it remains speculation, all be it different than the 'complete' doom scenarios out there, but no less valid.

Additionally, if EK does cancel a part of her order, the freed up slots can accomodate A380s on order by other airlines and consequently Airbus could avoid paying compensation to these customers and/or consequently these customers might not be eligible for cancelling their contract without paying compensation. This way Airbus might be able to avoid more profitable A380s being cancelled. All of these airlines have placed smaller orders, therefore discounts given are likely to be smaller than those given to Emirates, hence the conclusion that these might be more profitable A380s.

While a cancellation is never good, the capacity of the newly presented production schedule keeps the people at Airbus busy, with the A380s currently on order (provided all of them are expected to be delivered before 2012), until the end of 2012.

Are there currently any A380s on order that are expected to be delivered after 2012?
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Thorben
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boo

Wed Oct 04, 2006 4:54 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
...Some A380 customers, most notably Emirates, which has more A380s on order than any other airline, hinted they might reconsider their orders. That could mean opportunities for The Boeing Co. And Boeing could benefit even if there are no defections from the troubled Airbus camp.

What will they take instead? 737s?

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
"This is a dangerous time for Airbus," said Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group, an industry consulting firm near Washington, D.C.

Dangerous? I'd call it a terrible time, but not particularly dangerous.

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
"This program has always been dangerously dependent on one or two key customers."

According to my knowledge they have 16 customers for the A380.

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
Aboulafia said Boeing should be able to sell its 747-8 passenger plane to at least one unhappy A380 customer.

Then they would have at least one customer. Honestly, a lot of A380 customers might order the 747-8, not because of the delivery troubles, but because it might make a nice combination.

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
"There would be questions asked if Boeing does not score at least one victory as a result of this," Aboulafia said...

Only cheerleaders talk of "victory". Boeing might sell some of their planes, because they can deliver earlier. A new A380 you could probably not have before 2012 or even later. Therefore CX, BR, OZ, or 9W might as well go for the 747-8. Not to mention JL and NH, who are going to take it anyway.

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
...Aboulafia said he believes the A380 program has other issues as well. The plane may be overweight, he said, which would affect its performance.

AFAIK the weight issue has been solved long ago. But maybe those additional 30kg for wing stability now make the plane owerweight.

Abou.... at his best, again. I don't understand why anybody still listens to him.
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PlaneHunter
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 5:09 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 11):

AFAIK the weight issue has been solved long ago. But maybe those additional 30kg for wing stability now make the plane owerweight.

Nothing's certain - only Airbus could end the speculations by finally offering a detailed explanation.


PH
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leelaw
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:37 pm

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 12):
Nothing's certain - only Airbus could end the speculations by finally offering a detailed explanation.

 checkmark  Udo has hit the nail on the head; nearly 18-months since the maiden flight, and after more than 2100 hours of flight-test, it should be relatively easy for Airbus to cite specifics in order to quell negative speculation in the media and by "pundits."
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wingman
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:07 pm

I agree, I haven't seen anything anywhere that provides a glowing report of flight testing as it relates to aircraft performance. The words I read yesterday were "meeting or even exceeding its perf. targets". I'm sorry but that doesn't sound all that exciting. In addition there is the looming issue of radical wiring and IFE cistomization for each 380 customer. There is a very real likelihood that this will lead to increased delays whenever IFE problems arise, not much looks to be very standard in this regard which will make it painful to arrange fast and easy fixes when necessary.

Most importantly, as cited by some in the attached article, the 380 is what it is. Airbus would be in Chapter 11 if Boeing had a direct competitor, they are extremely lucky to have this segment all to themselves. On the flip side though, the extra time it'll take to define, desing and build the 350 is exactly what Boeing is gooing to need to develop either Y3 or a 777NG. Airbus's engineering resources will be consumed with the 380 for another year and I think EADS' cash reserves just vanished. I would say this spells an extremely dangerous time for Airbus and we haven't even started talking the politics of firing the French and handing their jobs to Germany and China. Remember the nightmarish chaos Boeing suffered in the 90's? Well, it's going to be at least as bad.
 
EDDB
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:13 pm

Quoting Wingman (Reply 14):
and I think EADS' cash reserves just vanished.

Hm... Then you know more than Airbus itself, cause just yesterday they told the media that BAE wil be paid by..... cash!
 
leelaw
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boo

Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:22 pm

Here's a somewhat different quote from Mr. Aboulafia on this subject reported by Bloomberg:

"...It's an extremely dangerous time for Airbus. Time is not on their side," said Richard Aboulafia, vice president, Teal Group, a Fairfax, Virginia-based consulting company. "If either Emirates or ILFC defect, the consequences will be extremely serious. While the A380 is unlikely to die, you can't rule out a total program failure..."

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...ospace/2003286961_webairbus03.html
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wingman
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:28 pm

Don't get your lederhosen in a twist, I meant over the next 4-5 years, the cash reserves just got eaten by the expected acumulated losses from this fiasco. Do you not agree?
 
co7772wuh
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:28 pm

Quoting Wingman (Reply 14):
I agree, I haven't seen anything anywhere that provides a glowing report of flight testing as it relates to aircraft performance. The words I read yesterday were "meeting or even exceeding its perf. targets". I'm sorry but that doesn't sound all that exciting. In addition there is the looming issue of radical wiring and IFE cistomization for each 380 customer. There is a very real likelihood that this will lead to increased delays whenever IFE problems arise, not much looks to be very standard in this regard which will make it painful to arrange fast and easy fixes when necessary.

Most importantly, as cited by some in the attached article, the 380 is what it is. Airbus would be in Chapter 11 if Boeing had a direct competitor, they are extremely lucky to have this segment all to themselves. On the flip side though, the extra time it'll take to define, desing and build the 350 is exactly what Boeing is gooing to need to develop either Y3 or a 777NG. Airbus's engineering resources will be consumed with the 380 for another year and I think EADS' cash reserves just vanished. I would say this spells an extremely dangerous time for Airbus and we haven't even started talking the politics of firing the French and handing their jobs to Germany and China. Remember the nightmarish chaos Boeing suffered in the 90's? Well, it's going to be at least as bad.

Right on the mark Wingman ,
If the the A380 is said to be "meeting or even exceeding its perf. " targets . Why on Earth is the a380 2 years late ! These constant delays [in my opinion] are simply used to hide the fact that there are significant , yet to be resolved , weight issues .

Also,
The swapping of copper to aluminum wiring in the beast is in essence down grading the quality of this a380 product !

People in this forum can try to sugar coat the latest round of Airbus Musical A380 delays all they want . However , the a380 may in fact be loosing orders while the break even number goes up !

Nothing to brag about !
 
BostonGuy
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:03 pm

I wouldn't say this was a "good thing" for Boeing. An opportunity, yes. What Boeing will get as a result of the never-ending delays of the A380 launch won't be seen for quite some time.

Airlines that ordered the A380 are in a real pickle. Each has put quite a lot of effort into promoting the prestige of being an airline that will offer A380 service, and airlines, like any other successful company, understand how to determine the value of the brand (in this case, the value generated by the prestige of operating the A380).

Airlines that have ordered the A380 also have to look at the real cost of ordering an alternative aircraft. Does Boeing have a comparable replacement that can start service earlier than the A380? If a comparable Boeing replacement wouldn't be available until the same time period as the A380 would finally arrive would the cost of the Boeing aircraft be comparable to the cost of a highly discounted A380 (discounted due to delays)?

I'd love to see Boeing get lots of orders due to the A380 delays, but I just don't see much of a justifiable business case for cancelling A380 orders at this point in time. I think any A380 cancellations would either out of spite (not what I consider the best of business reasons) or due to an airline seizing on an Airbus blunder so it can cancel orders it now realizes shouldn't have made in the first place.
 
mptpa
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:06 pm

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 4):
Not necessarily. Personally, I think that the slow sales and technical problems of the A380 are a ratification of Boeing's decision not to pursue the VLA market, but that doesn't mean Boeing has much to gain from it. I seriously doubt airlines are going to start dumping their A380 orders and lining up for the 747i just because things are going so poorly with the A380 right now. At most, Boeing might get some "we were right, you were wrong" jeers out of this, but not much else. To me, this situation is truely unfortunate for Airbus, as there's undoubtedly much more to be gained from pouring the massive amount of effort required for the A380 into the increasingly formidable A350 program.

Of course, I could be wrong. If Airbus rights their ship and the A380 proves to be a game-changer in the world market, more power to them.

I do tend to agree with the above. Even IF some do cancel because of this, they are cancelling for other reasons: markets changed, financial difficulty caused by oil prices, etc (ex: MAS). But if they cancel so they will flock to Boeing for the 748i, what are they going to gain? The EIS would be about the same time as their current revised delivery of A380. Besides, they probably got some money from Airbus from the past 2 delivery slides, and they could demand more. At the end, the frame would cost a hell of a lot less, and IF they can fill that plane up, they could see CASMs much lower than B748i just because their initial capital amortization went way down. I read somewhere that EK originally paid something like 150m, and if they can get 30m off that, fill the craft to 80% LF, imagine the return!!

I would say the only airlines to take advantage of this and cancel would be the likes of MH, TK, may be a few off from EK (and they may go for B748i just in case), or even QF. Ethihad, Qatar, LH might take advantage of this and even order more!!!!!

EK could easily use this credibility issue and not to put all the eggs in the same basket, go for B787-10!! or Airbus may sweeten a package deal and give some A350 away as part of the settlment whilst garnering EK as a launch customer. Question is "will they fall for this again?". We will know soon enough.

Of A350, if the financial market downgrades Airbus/EADS, they the cost of borrowing is going to go way up (the stocks already sild >7% today)... Hey EU, have any low risk, low interest rate, payback when we make money funds available???
 
mptpa
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:16 pm

Quoting EDDB (Reply 15):
Quoting Wingman (Reply 14):
and I think EADS' cash reserves just vanished.

Hm... Then you know more than Airbus itself, cause just yesterday they told the media that BAE wil be paid by..... cash!

Good point indeed. Cash is going out even faster.... BAE go he agreement just in time, I'd say!!! Obviously, BAE knew much more way ahead than we all did!!! BAE can put the cash to better use by acquisition in the US where the defense money is....
 
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boo

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:21 pm

Quoting Singapore_Air (Reply 2):
Lufthansa has also been quoted in thenpast 18 hours that the A380 is going to be a fine aircraft.

I'm not surprised to hear them say that, given their commitment of 15 aircraft. I am starting to doubt they'll excise options though.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 11):
Abou.... at his best, again. I don't understand why anybody still listens to him.

You don't shoot the messenger when you don't like the mail he's carrying...

[Edited 2006-10-04 15:25:44]
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kc135topboom
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:35 pm

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 6):
Overweight, structural issues, wake turbulence - speculations will be endless.

I think Airbus can and will overcome any weight and structual issues that may be out there. The issue that can most effect the A-380 is the wake turbalance issue and the requirement for increased spacing behind the A-380. This could be a deal killer as it reduces airport capacity. Every additional mile of spacing behind an A-380 (beyond the 5 mile spacing for todays other heavy aircraft), at those airports that will see 10 + A-380 operations everyday, will reduce that airport's capacity by as much as 1%. Additionally every A-380 operation can end up costing airports additional landing and parking revenue, if they were solely counting on A-380s as additional aircraft, and not considering the slow down in other aircraft operations numbers.

Quoting Manni (Reply 10):
Additionally, if EK does cancel a part of her order, the freed up slots can accomodate A380s on order by other airlines and consequently Airbus could avoid paying compensation to these customers and/or consequently these customers might not be eligible for cancelling their contract without paying compensation.

So, Airbus can save a dime for every dollar they loose?

Quoting Manni (Reply 10):
Are there currently any A380s on order that are expected to be delivered after 2012?

Ask that same question next week.

I think one or two more additional significant delays in the A-380 program will push it into available delivery slot dates for the B-747-800I. That is when airlines who have ordered the A-380 will review their delivery options.

Airbus stands to loose a lot of money if the A-380 program is PRECEIVED to be a failure. Not only can they loose current and future A-380 orders, but airports around the world will line up to sue Airbus to pay for the A-380 infaststructure improvements they made and have become useless.

Airbus needs to get their sh-- together on the whole A-380 program. Boeing just needs to stay quite about the whole issue, and solve their own issues that may pop up with the B-787 program.
 
katekebo
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:46 pm

Quoting EDDB (Reply 15):
Hm... Then you know more than Airbus itself, cause just yesterday they told the media that BAE wil be paid by..... cash!

Yesterday Airbus hinted that financing the development of A350 may be an issue due to the additional cost of re-wiring early A380's, penalties to customers, deferred profits from the program delay and BAE pay-out. They still have enough money to pay BAE, but they are running short on cash to fund new projects. Delaying A350 by a year or so seems almost inevitable.

Airbus is facing two problems - a short-term one related to the A380, and a mid- to long-term one if they miss the market opportunity to launch the A350 in due time. By the time the A350 will be ready, most orders will have gone to Boeing B787 and B777, leaving relatively small demand for the A350. While A350 may turn out to be a great plane, timing is essential to make it a commercial success, and Airbus might miss the train on this one due to strapped cash situation, consequence of the A380 issues.

Of course, Government intervention to prop Airbus finances is always an option and actually I think it is very probable. European governments won't let Airbus slip - there is too much pride involved. I'm sure many die-hard Airbus fans will be happy to give away all their personal savings to help Airbus, too, LOL.
 
Ken777
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:52 pm

The challenge Airbus has on potential cancellations is the 747 that will be compared with the 380. When they made all of their 380 sales they were able to compare the 380 to the 744. Now airlines are able to compare the 380 to the 748i, which is improving on 744 operating costs. I don't know how that changes the comparisons, but it (unfortunately for Airbus) gives the airlines a reason to to re-look at their 380 orders. Not a good thing with the current 380 delivery problems.

Other factors could be the need to re-look at orders to determine if they really need the plane, or as many as they ordered. There have also been hints that Airbus is reaching the maximum compensation provided under the contract.

On the positive side (for Airbus) will be the lowest price level that Boeing will be willing to go on the 748i. The 380 might simply be a lot cheaper for those with existing orders.

Without being anti-380 I believe that one or two airlines will cancel because they really don't need the 380 and I think that EK may well reduce their order, going with the 777 or 748i as replacements.
 
manni
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:04 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 23):
So, Airbus can save a dime for every dollar they loose?

Not sure how much a dime is, but you've got the point. While a cancellation will be a loss for Airbus, Airbus might be able to avoid paying penaltys to other airlines or might avoid cancellations being made by other airlines if a cancellation does happen, depending on the delivery positions that become available.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 23):
Ask that same question next week.

Why next week? Are you expecting an A380 order next week?
Maybe I should rephrase. Are there any airlines that have planned to take delivery of A380s, currently on order, after 2012?
If not, Airbus is fully booked until the end of 2012, if no airline cancels her order. Provided the new production schedule will remain as it is today.
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NYC777
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:26 pm

Well accroding to The Times, EK and VS are talking to Boeing about the 748I and cancelling the A380 orders. Not a good sign.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9077-2387999,00.html
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starrion
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:46 pm

A boon? No way.

First of all the A380 customers that were early in the game got excellent prices. Then they got compensation, now they're going to get more. I'll bet the carriers get these delayed aircraft at or very near the cost to produce them when all is said and done. Why would they walk away from that, even presuming that Boeing delivers the 748 on-time and on-specification? It also ignores that fact that most of the carriers ordered the A380 because they believe that they need the capacity. That argues against them dropping it in favor of the smaller 748.

EK could cancel, but if they're smart, (and I think they are) they'll make a lot of noise, get generous compensation and then do what Ryanair is doing with with their low-balled 737's. Get them new, fly the hell out of them for a few years, then resell them at a profit when another one arrives new from the factory.

Some smaller carriers -might- cancel, but the biggest benefit for Boeing in this debacle is that other carriers (BA, UA, CX, and maybe LH) will be more likely to opt for the 748 as a replacement for existing 744's.
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grantcv
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:01 am

I am wondering if Emirates didn't order too many A380s, having the cash to make the deposits on very good terms offered by Airbus at the time. Maybe they figured that the airplane would be so much in demand that any excess planes in their order could be sold/leased to other airlines eager to get their hands on a few. But now with all the delays, a drying up market for VLAs (which I personally think is simply just a few years away when B744s come up for retirement in significant numbers), and the prospect of excess capacity in the middle east, Emirates is seriously reevaluating what to do with the rather too large order for the A380s.

Maybe they will cancel some of their orders, leaving them with as many as they will really need - maybe in the 10-20 range.
 
Lemurs
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:08 am

Quoting Starrion (Reply 28):
EK could cancel, but if they're smart, (and I think they are) they'll make a lot of noise, get generous compensation and then do what Ryanair is doing with with their low-balled 737's. Get them new, fly the hell out of them for a few years, then resell them at a profit when another one arrives new from the factory.

That's assuming they can afford to put off their insane growth plan for however long it takes to get everything sorted out, of course. If their plan calls for 45 A380's on a specific schedule (which it must...you don't order that many "just in case") then they're at larger risk than other airlines might be. I'm not saying this is for certain, just that it makes sense that EK could be one of the airlines least able to wait without making serious changes to corporate plans.

This adds some credence to the Times article someone posted about them considering splitting their order now with the 747-8I. If they launch the airplane, they can essentially double the number of seats coming online in 2009 as they take deliveries from Airbus and Boeing both...it could bring them back on track with their current expansion plan after a 2 year hiccup.
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legacytravel
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:07 pm

Would Boeing possibly offer some 744's at a serious discount to some of the 380 customers as a stop-gap until the 748 come online?? and that way they could steal the customers away in the dark of night.
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osiris30
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:16 pm

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 6):
I agree with that - if Boeing can't sell any B748i as a result of the further massive delay, then one has to wonder about Boeing's product.

Or the entire market. I mean really (and based on another thread, let's exclude the SQ LoI for 9 more 380s) how many VLA have been sold this year. That's right 0. 0 Boeing, 0 A380. (I'm not counting 748F for obvious reasons)

Looks like a pretty crappy market all things considered.
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:24 pm

Quoting Legacytravel (Reply 31):
Would Boeing possibly offer some 744's at a serious discount to some of the 380 customers as a stop-gap until the 748 come online?? and that way they could steal the customers away in the dark of night.

The only way to get a passenger 747 of any kind is either a 747-8I or a second-hand older model. Boeing is all sold out for years to come.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
legacytravel
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:43 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 33):
Boeing is all sold out for years to come.

Thanks for the info I was not aware of that.
Mark in MKE
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RayChuang
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Thu Oct 05, 2006 11:21 pm

I think right now Boeing maybe seriously looking at ramping up 777, 787 and 747-8I production just in case Airbus is forced to admit defeat with the A380. You know airlines already committed to the A380 will be scrambling to get replacement planes, and the 777-300ER and possibly 747-8I maybe just what the airlines want.
 
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Thu Oct 05, 2006 11:26 pm

Boeing wont do too much , carson is on record saying that they dont want to push themselves to levels where the line breaks " sometimes it hard to say no blablabla" , i think the 777 line might get some sort of boost but i doubt it would be the case for the 747 specially when it has no orders as for now for the -I varient and probably requires considerably more investment ( as compared to prospect of aircrafts sold) . Does anyone know the situation with the 747 deliveries? when would the current backlog end ? If some airline signs on to the 747-8 then they should atleast technically be able to get deliveries on a much tighter schedule as compared to the A380 which has a higher backlog and initial lower production rate . I think if boeing will push at increasing anything it would be the 787 line or adding another one if the -10 is launched anytime soon .
 
PVD757
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Fri Oct 06, 2006 2:00 am

The only thing that EK gets going forward will be getting rid of the A346s they do not want, and maybe a better deal on XWBs when they go to replace their 777 fleet. Worse case scenario is that they do order a dozen of so 748Is and look at how they can eventually convert them to freighters......
 
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Fri Oct 06, 2006 2:09 am

Thirteen UFO orders for 747s just showed up for this week's Boeing orders update. Also, 3 747 BBJ! Could it be....
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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N328KF
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Fri Oct 06, 2006 2:15 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 38):
Thirteen UFO orders for 747s just showed up for this week's Boeing orders update. Also, 3 747 BBJ! Could it be....

I don't think the ten non-BBJ 747s could be as a direct result of the announcement. The order would have had to be on the books yesterday, which would have been fast work. This order was in the can previously.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Fri Oct 06, 2006 2:51 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 39):
This order was in the can previously.

While I agree it is unlikely that somebody just called Boeing in the past 24-48 hours and said "Hi! We'd like 10 748I's, please.", it is possible that one of the customers looking at the 748I have finally decided to consumate a deal, possibly because of the delays in the A380 program making the model unavailable in the timeframe they were looking for (assuming the 10-11 non-BBJ frames are also 748I's).
 
727200er
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:43 am

As for EK I (as in me) think that the most likely situation, is A will relent on the 346 debacle. This will free EK to purchase 78-10 and 748 at launch customer rates. I can see this happening to get the lift they claim they need a little bit faster, and to add prestige as launch customer for two new types, while still receiving the largest fleet of 380s. They also get out of buying the 346 which they do not want anyway.

I also see this as an opportunity for BA and some other fence sitters to order the 748. They would also be looking at launch customer pricing, and would look like the smart guys for waiting to order. Lets face it, at this time a new order for 748 or 380, is looking at the same basic time frame for delivery.

Anyway just my $0.02
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Glom
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Fri Oct 06, 2006 6:21 am

Yes, yes, yes. We keep on hearing from the Whalers (the new name for A380 bashers I have declared) that Boeing will get loads of orders for the Jumbo Not Yet. But guess what? They have happened... not yet! That's why it is the Jumbo Not Yet!
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Fri Oct 06, 2006 6:31 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 42):
That's why it is the Jumbo Not Yet!

41 firm orders for the 747 in 2006 so far.

How many does the Whalejet have?
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Fri Oct 06, 2006 6:40 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 43):
41 firm orders for the 747 in 2006 so far.

How many does the Whalejet have?

9 new orders from SQ for 168 over the program.
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jacobin777
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Fri Oct 06, 2006 6:59 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 23):
I think Airbus can and will overcome any weight and structual issues that may be out there. The issue that can most effect the A-380 is the wake turbalance issue and the requirement for increased spacing behind the A-380. This could be a deal killer as it reduces airport capacity. Every additional mile of spacing behind an A-380 (beyond the 5 mile spacing for todays other heavy aircraft), at those airports that will see 10 + A-380 operations everyday, will reduce that airport's capacity by as much as 1%. Additionally every A-380 operation can end up costing airports additional landing and parking revenue, if they were solely counting on A-380s as additional aircraft, and not considering the slow down in other aircraft operations numbers.

Airbus better hope those current rules in place will be reduced...that will severely hinder Airbus' chance to get BA to sign on to any large A380 order...Walsh has been on record anyway stating that they would purchase "a dozen or so A380's at most" even if they were to go that route....

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 25):
The challenge Airbus has on potential cancellations is the 747 that will be compared with the 380. When they made all of their 380 sales they were able to compare the 380 to the 744. Now airlines are able to compare the 380 to the 748i, which is improving on 744 operating costs. I don't know how that changes the comparisons, but it (unfortunately for Airbus) gives the airlines a reason to to re-look at their 380 orders. Not a good thing with the current 380 delivery problems.

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Quoting Starrion (Reply 28):
Then they got compensation, now they're going to get more.

QF is on record of getting $100 million, now they are on record of potentially getting $50 million...so if Airbus doesn't delay anymore, then Airbus should still get decent returns..but that being said, IIRC, Airbus did say they will actually lose money on the first few A380's sold..I just don't know many...

Quoting Lemurs (Reply 30):
That's assuming they can afford to put off their insane growth plan for however long it takes to get everything sorted out, of course.

That's also assuming however they were going to fly all A380's....its possible that they got such a good deal that they have decided to lease a few out also!
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Stitch
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boon

Fri Oct 06, 2006 7:02 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 42):
Yes, yes, yes. We keep on hearing from the Whalers (the new name for A380 bashers I have declared) that Boeing will get loads of orders for the Jumbo Not Yet. But guess what? They have happened... not yet! That's why it is the Jumbo Not Yet!

Well she does have at least four per today (all in VIP config), with a possible 11 more (depending on how the other UFO's shake out), so while I don't view these as enough for a launch, it's at least starting to gain traction with the "high rollers".
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Seattle PI: New A380 Delay Could Be Boeing Boo

Fri Oct 06, 2006 7:06 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 44):
9 new orders from SQ for 168 over the program.

Well, if you're going to count orders over the program, you must count them for the 747 too, which is somewhere north of 1000 planes.

BTW, the nine orders from SQ aren't firm, so the A380 has ZERO firm orders this year. Big grin
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