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chrisnh
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Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:02 pm

I know...I laughed, too. The article is here >>> http://tinyurl.com/ggl3n

You will see some rather remarkable results of a years-long study. To wit:

1.) Boston Logan's traffic will increase by 73% (!) between 2004 and 2020.

2.) Traffic at Manchester and Portland will each grow by MORE THAN 85%
(!!!!) over the same period.

Now, I'll defer to the study's results since the federal government
did the leg work and I didn't. But in this age of tiny 'lawn darts'
running MHT-ATL (one example), HOW is this '85% growth' going to
occur? Several things need to happen, but two are obvious: bigger
planes and more of them. In the end, the DEMAND SIDE of the equation
may point to some pretty bullish growth; we know the market can
support 'bigger planes and more of them.' This isn't wishful or
hopeful thinking; past history bears that out. With that said, the SUPPLY SIDE--planes and seats--needs to keep pace with the demand we know is there. I don't see bigger planes and more flights coming
through those doors, folks. So I'm left I'm scratching my head at a notion that BOS and MHT will BOTH see this kind of growth against a population trend (at
least in Massachusetts) that is sliding backward. Not counting illegal
immigrants (and who does, anyway?), Massachusetts is LOSING
population. I'd move out of that state, too, in the face of where
their intentions lie there.

Portland's growth I can sort of agree with because they have a low starting point, and in fact '85% growth' might just get them back to their
high-water mark of many years ago. I am hopeful that jetBlue is doing well
there, but they need a whole lot more 'new metal' to do what this
study says they'll do.

So, HOW do you reconcile a study like this when all we see are LAWN DARTS doing what should be MAINLINE routes?? How do you 'get there from here' against what we see out there right now? And, according to the article, no mention of PVD!!

Chris in NH
 
oly720man
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 8:23 pm

http://www.flymanchester.com/airlines/activity.php

Here are MHTs traffic stats. Will probably see around 4.5million this year.

What happened between 96 and 99 with the increase from 1mil to 3mil?
wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:30 pm

Quoting Oly720man (Reply 1):
What happened between 96 and 99 with the increase from 1mil to 3mil?

Well, that's what the industry likes to call the 'Southwest Effect.' They launched service here in 1998, and it was in that period that Metrojet was flying and Northwest and Delta both came to town. So, those four airlines gave you the spike between 1996 and 1999. To reach the kind of figures this study projects, some similar spikes will need to blossom. I just can't fathom how or when they'll occur, especially in an era where planes are getting smaller and mainline carriers are so reluctant to introduce new service except at their big fortress cities.

Chris in NH
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:09 pm

When you are talking over a 20 year plan, this is nothing uncommon.

4% annual growth equates to a 100% increase after 19 years, and 4% growth isnt anything to write home about. Seems like a another case where the media doesnt exactly understand what they writing about.

For MHT/PWM to see 85% growth over 14 years equates to just over 5% annual growth.....woohoo

Insteresting article, but it really gives the wrong impression!
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:27 pm

Even so, in this environment where just maintaining what you have is a challenge, are you going to dismiss at least 5% growth EVERY SINGLE YEAR for close to 20 years??? What airports are doing THAT???

When mainliners are giving way to lawn darts and legacy carriers are abandoning routes, you're going to say this is no big deal???

You may say 'woohoo' but the way the airline industry is now, that IS a big deal. I'm looking at our airport (MHT) showing a collapse in traffic this year from last (that IS a big 'so-what' because a whole bunch of airports are showing similar declines). So my skepticism comes from reconciling what is happening NOW versus what this study says will happen by 2020. I'm just not seeing an iron-clad logic chain, which is why I'd like to get my hands on the study. I'll bet you'd like to, too, to see what kind of growth the government projects for PVD!!

Chris in NH
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:45 pm

Actually for 4 mil pax over 14 years comes out to be 4.5% annually

The FAA National average is in the 3-4% range

As for PVD, their 2020 #'s range from 9.5-12 million depeding on the low/med/high scenario which equates to a range of 74% to 120%
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kc135topboom
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 10:53 pm

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 3):
4% annual growth equates to a 100% increase after 19 years, and 4% growth isnt anything to write home about. Seems like a another case where the media doesnt exactly understand what they writing about.

For MHT/PWM to see 85% growth over 14 years equates to just over 5% annual growth.....woohoo

Well, this can be explained by several factors, including the recent "repeal" of the Wright Amendment for DAL, over the next 8 years. That will spell additional The New England area has the capacity for growth, except for BOS with these types of numbers. There are 4 New England airports that currently have enough capacity to do this without much additional infaststructure inprovements, PWM, MHT, PSM, and Providence, RI. BOS needs to expand with an additional runway and additional gates just to keep up. While a 4%-5% annual growth isn't much, it is close to the annual norm projected for all US airports. BOS is under utilized in one area that other northeast airports are approaching capacity, like JFK. That is international traffic. If airlines like DL and AA increase their international flights to the EU, they may need to do this from BOS. To accomplish this, perhaps cargo airlines like UPS, FedEx, and DHL can utilize the airport at PSM, thus freeing up some capacity at BOS for additional passenger service.
 
BostonGuy
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:27 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
To accomplish this, perhaps cargo airlines like UPS, FedEx, and DHL can utilize the airport at PSM, thus freeing up some capacity at BOS for additional passenger service.

I don't think corporate clients of UPS, FedEx and DHL would appreciate having to wait for important documents that are on trucks stuck in traffic coming into Boston.

PSM is 60 miles from Boston, and frequently a time-consuming trip. Especially with our numerous tunnel closures in the city.

I live in the city, and right now the fastest way to get to the airport is to head directly to the airport (a 3 mile journey), turn around within sight of the airport and head 4 miles in the opposite direction, then do a U-turn at a toll plaza and head straight for the airport (that last leg a 5 mile trip).

Relocating UPS, FedEx and DHL to PSM simply isn't a viable option considering the state of the highway infrastructure in Boston.

I'm also having a hard time believing BOS will experience 4% - 5% growth over the next decade or two.
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:33 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
perhaps cargo airlines like UPS, FedEx, and DHL can utilize the airport at PSM, thus freeing up some capacity at BOS for additional passenger service.

I think MHT would be the place, inasmuch as FedEx has a three-widebody apron there already with room to expand. For their part, UPS can stage a 757, a A300-600, and a DC-8 all at the same time...something that happens from time to time when one of their aircraft goes down.

Chris in NH
 
flyboyaz
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:34 pm

Sounds interesting. I just hope the airport doesn't get taken over by WN! Would be nice if B6 came in...but I doubt that will happen.

I was hoping US would add flights to PHX or LAS...maybe at some point. CO to IAH would be cool too...
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RL757PVD
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:36 pm

Quoting BostonGuy (Reply 7):
I'm also having a hard time believing BOS will experience 4% - 5% growth over the next decade or two

Too high or too low?

73% over the next 14 years that comes out to about 3.8% annually
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BostonGuy
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:42 pm

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 8):
I think MHT would be the place, inasmuch as FedEx has a three-widebody apron there already with room to expand.

Besides not believing BOS will see the FAA's anticipated growth in passenger traffic, I also don't believe that FedEx would decide to serve Boston customers by flying into MHT.

Ain't gonna happen.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:43 pm

Where exactly is all this traffic going to land/takeoff/park at BOS?
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RL757PVD
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:49 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 12):
Where exactly is all this traffic going to land/takeoff/park at BOS?

Hopefully mostly from larger aircraft...

25 more pax per flight x 500 flights x 2 = 25,000 daily pax which equates to roughlt 10 mil per year which accounts for 33%, a good portion of the increase....
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:52 pm

Quoting RL757PVD (Reply 10):
73% over the next 14 years that comes out to about 3.8% annually

I know these numbers sound unimpressive, but the basis for them presumes growth every single year. EVERY YEAR! Why are we so blase about this when we are in the midst of a down year right now??? Also, where are all these seats going to come from when airlines are in the midst of RJ-ing us to death??? You mean to say that all of this will stop and airlines will start flying bigger planes again? That's what has to happen in order for this growth to occur. Because I can tell you that it's not going to come on the back of a whole bunch more RJ flying; the system can't handle an avalanche of additional RJ flights. At some point, for all this sustained growth to occur, RJs are going to have to turn back into mainliners. It's either that, or new flying altogether: new routes at MHT and/or new airlines. Where's the crystal ball that says this is going to happen??

Again, you are unimpressed with 4% compounded growth for another 14 years (and whatever it might be for MHT to reach 85% growth). I'm not sure you can prove to me how that's going to occur, with the kind of 'low volume' flying airlines are doing. Heck, a 737-300 is a cause for celebration at some airports!!!

Chris in NH
 
ushermittwoch
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Wed Oct 04, 2006 11:52 pm

Maybe there are secret plans to expand BOS KIX-style.  crossfingers 
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:04 am

Quoting BostonGuy (Reply 11):
Besides not believing BOS will see the FAA's anticipated growth in passenger traffic, I also don't believe that FedEx would decide to serve Boston customers by flying into MHT.

Ain't gonna happen.

It already did: When the 2004 Democratic National Convention was in Boston, FedEx needed a contingency plan. The FedEx team at MHT crafted a plan and pulled it off marvelously by routing some planes through MHT instead. They had the trucks all sequenced--inbound and outbound--to meet the planes so they could arrive from and depart to IND/MEM without a hitch. It was such a success that the 'MHT Plan' was adopted weeks later down in NY for the RNC. No, MHT won't replace BOS for FedEx. But any additional flying FedEx chooses to do in the region can easily route through here: long runway, excellent access to Routes 3 and 93, CAT III, a residential community that doesn't 'whine' every time a plane departs, and VERY good snow-removal capabilities are what FedEx and UPS look for. They are here for those reasons.
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:10 am

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 14):
I know these numbers sound unimpressive, but the basis for them presumes growth every single year. EVERY YEAR! Why are we so blase about this when we are in the midst of a down year right now??? Also, where are all these seats going to come from when airlines are in the midst of RJ-ing us to death??? You mean to say that all of this will stop and airlines will start flying bigger planes again? That's what has to happen in order for this growth to occur. Because I can tell you that it's not going to come on the back of a whole bunch more RJ flying; the system can't handle an avalanche of additional RJ flights. At some point, for all this sustained growth to occur, RJs are going to have to turn back into mainliners. It's either that, or new flying altogether: new routes at MHT and/or new airlines. Where's the crystal ball that says this is going to happen??

Again, you are unimpressed with 4% compounded growth for another 14 years (and whatever it might be for MHT to reach 85% growth). I'm not sure you can prove to me how that's going to occur, with the kind of 'low volume' flying airlines are doing. Heck, a 737-300 is a cause for celebration at some airports!!!

4% is not that difficult to achive over the LONG run...they arent saying MHT will gor every year, it may look something like 3%, 8%, 10%, 2% -3%, 5% etc that averages 4% in the long run.

Examples ...for PVD to achieve 4% for 2007, they will need roughly 290 additional departing seats, not terrible... thats essentially 2 new 319s and an RJ (assuming no more downgrades!)

For MHT.. 1 new WN 737@ 70% LF = 70,000 annual pax. which on 4 mil requates to 1.8% growth for that one flight alone.
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warreng24
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:17 am

At MHT Gate 10 is listed as "available."

http://www.flymanchester.com/about/terminal.php

Will Gate 10 be gobbled up by WN? Or will the new US Scareways reclaim Gate 10?

Will we see B6, AA, FL, NK or something totally unexpected?

BTW, Gate 10 is the former FlyI gate.
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:28 am

The other thing not factored in with this study (maybe it is) is further airline consolidation and what effect that may have. I'd really like to get a hold of this study and see what underlying assumptions are made!! I will be VERY happy to see MHT grow at a CAGR of 4%-5% over the next 14 years, especially being within the orbital pull of BOS!!! That's been both a bane and a blessing for us!!

Chris in NH
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:28 am

Quoting Warreng24 (Reply 18):
Will we see B6, AA, FL, NK or something totally unexpected?

I think MHT will see FL and B6 in the 5-10 yeat timeframe

I actually see FL doing PWM 1st since they can tie into BWI or PHL, not just ATL, which is something they cant do at MHT with WN dominating those routes.

And has much as AA and MHT go together like oil and water, i think eventually they will need some sort of presence there even if its just 3x ERJ to ORD 5-10 years from now...
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:31 am

I think PSM is the best option for the cargo airlines, it has everything MHT has and more, except a Cat. III ILS. That is an easy install.

WN is the best candidate for MHT expansion, and has the best route structure, much better than B6. WN could also send in TZ to add indirect Hawaii flights.

BOS is not a good option for any of this until they can get their new runway.
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:34 am

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 19):
The other thing not factored in with this study (maybe it is) is further airline consolidation and what effect that may have. I'd really like to get a hold of this study and see what underlying assumptions are made!! I will be VERY happy to see MHT grow at a CAGR of 4%-5% over the next 14 years, especially being within the orbital pull of BOS!!! That's been both a bane and a blessing for us!!

As someone who does airport forecasts for a living, they tend to have good assumptions but a 20 year forcast for an airport is like the 10-day forecast on the weather channel. The only thing the forecasts are good for is to make sure that the airport is headed in the right direction in terms on capital improvements and long-range facilities planning. Even being off by 500,000 annual passengers at an airport the size of MHT doesnt really change their facility requirements.
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Thu Oct 05, 2006 12:46 am

Peter Howe of The Boston Globe just sent me the report. It's a 6+ MB pdf. Hopefully I can upload it to our MHT Yahoo Group 'Files' section.

Chris
 
apodino
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Thu Oct 05, 2006 1:17 am

I am not so optomistic on BOS. BOS is still trying to fix the problems with the collapsed tunnel section, which have made accessing the airport tricky. Add to this a report saying that the Sumner and Callahan tunnels are in real bad shape and will need major overhauls requiring them to be closed for a long period of time, I don't see why people would bother with the hassle of BOS when MHT and PVD are easily accessible and don't have the delay problems that BOS has.
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Thu Oct 05, 2006 1:40 am

Quoting Apodino (Reply 24):
I am not so optomistic on BOS. BOS is still trying to fix the problems with the collapsed tunnel section, which have made accessing the airport tricky. Add to this a report saying that the Sumner and Callahan tunnels are in real bad shape and will need major overhauls requiring them to be closed for a long period of time, I don't see why people would bother with the hassle of BOS when MHT and PVD are easily accessible and don't have the delay problems that BOS has.

It depends where the low-fares are.... my family is 25 min from PVD and 1 hr from BOS, but from ATL, im not paying $500 for fly on a CRJ for 3 hrs to PVD when i can do airtran for $178 on mainline into BOS. and yes the tunnel situation DOES SUCK!
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Thu Oct 05, 2006 2:24 am

After 9/11 Boston's air traffic collapsed, moreso there than at other airports. So the folks at Massport, who once tried to chase interested airlines to places like Worcester or (heaven forbid!) MHT and PVD, now had to fight for their lost traffic. So they ended up being a whole lot more accomodating to the LCCs, with good success. (jetBlue is a perfect example...Massport told them to go pound sand before 9/11 and then went after them with a bouquet of flowers afterwards).

So, the LCC advantage that PVD and MHT enjoyed evaporated. That plus the completion of the Big Dig got people back to Logan where the airport there has enjoyed robust growth. Their gain is our loss, and that'll show up when the '06 numbers finally come in. And most of the LCCs don't have the critical mass of a Southwest where they have enough planes and people to blanket a region with multiple stations. Someone like AirTran pretty much needs to (at this stage) pick Boston and stick with it. Same with jetBlue, despite their entry at PWM.

Chris in NH
 
BostonGuy
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:39 am

Quoting Ushermittwoch (Reply 15):
Maybe there are secret plans to expand BOS KIX-style.

Can't be done without destroying Boston Harbor Islands National Park.

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 16):
It already did: When the 2004 Democratic National Convention was in Boston, FedEx needed a contingency plan. The FedEx team at MHT crafted a plan and pulled it off marvelously by routing some planes through MHT instead. They had the trucks all sequenced--inbound and outbound--to meet the planes so they could arrive from and depart to IND/MEM without a hitch. It was such a success that the 'MHT Plan' was adopted weeks later down in NY for the RNC.

Yeah, but we had NO traffic in the city during the DNC because so many companies actually closed. So many residents left town during that week, and so many large companies closed their city offices that week, that restaurants wound up closing because there were no customers. It was the lightest traffic in Boston in decades.

Besides, back then the tunnels weren't yet collapsing.

Using MHT as a contingency plan for a limited period is doable. But what we're discussing here is the idea of FedEx, DHL and UPS moving their operations out of Logan permanently. That's never going to happen.
 
COERJ145
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:43 am

Quoting Warreng24 (Reply 18):
Will Gate 10 be gobbled up by WN? Or will the new US Scareways reclaim Gate 10?

Will we see B6, AA, FL, NK or something totally unexpected?

BTW, Gate 10 is the former FlyI gate.

I hope F9 comes back to New England, MHT or BOS could be a good market for them.
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:56 am

Quoting COERJ145 (Reply 28):
I hope F9 comes back to New England, MHT or BOS could be a good market for them.

Rumors ive heard say BDL might be their new england re-entry, but that doesnt cover BOS... even with BOS, PVD or MHT could still eventually see them.

Id rank it in this order of entry...
BDL 2007/8
PVD/BOS 2007/8/9
PVD/BOS 2007/8/9/10
MHT 2008/9/10/11
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
boslax
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Fri Oct 06, 2006 5:04 am

I think its a long shot that Frontier would ever come back to Boston, even though while they were here, their loads were respectable. If memory serves me, they operated in the old terminal A and needed to find another carrier to provide their under-the-wing service in the other terminals since A was being demolished to make room for the new Delta terminal. Frontier could not find a cost effective provider and since they only had one daily flight at the time, they decided to bail instead. With jetBlue in the BOS-DEN market now, it just doesn't seem like a smart move to come back to Boston.

In regards to Frontier coming to another airport in New England, I think that's a long shot also. Frontier's existing East Coast - Denver markets are very low yielding and they need markets that will contribute to the bottom line since they are in a cat fight in Denver.
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Fri Oct 06, 2006 6:15 am

Quoting COERJ145 (Reply 28):
But what we're discussing here is the idea of FedEx, DHL and UPS moving their operations out of Logan permanently

Well, to be fair, you weren't discussing 'moving out of Logan permanently' and neither was I. We were talking about serving the Boston market from MHT, and it can be done when you realize that the 'Boston market' is more than the 46 square miles called 'Boston.'

I'm smart enough to know that FedEx and UPS wouldn't abandon Boston for Manchester, but FedEx HAS said that MHT is where any FURTHER growth is likely to occur. The space to park planes and the COST to land them is better up here than down there. Now whether FedEx sees a need to increase lift in the Boston market is beyond my ability to predict. Honestly, I can't see it happening since companies and residents are moving OUT of Massachusetts and Boston. You don't get 'growth' from that. This will only accelerate if a Democratic governor is elected (now likely). Unless illegal immigrants start sending a ton of overnight packages, Boston is probably served as well now as it ever will be from the freight haulers.
 
BostonGuy
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sat Oct 07, 2006 1:46 am

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 31):
Well, to be fair, you weren't discussing 'moving out of Logan permanently' and neither was I.

Actually, KC135TankerBoom was discussing a permanent move. And that is who I quoted and responded to. You quoted and responded to him, too.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
If airlines like DL and AA increase their international flights to the EU, they may need to do this from BOS. To accomplish this, perhaps cargo airlines like UPS, FedEx, and DHL can utilize the airport at PSM, thus freeing up some capacity at BOS for additional passenger service.

How could cargo airlines free capacity for international passenger airlines without permanently giving up their space?
 
PHLBOS
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sat Oct 07, 2006 2:30 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 21):
BOS is not a good option for any of this until they can get their new runway

That new runway that you speak of, if I'm not mistaken, is the Runway 14-32 project; which I believe is presently under construction (at least it was when I came in on a flight back in late June). Sizewise, it's very similar to PHL's Runway 8-26 in that it's intended design was to get the turboprops off of the major runways (which would be freed up to take an increased number of larger aircraft). PHL's 8-26 does however see some RJ action on a regular basis, and in one or 2 instances (one of which I have a photograph of) seen a 738 (Miami Air) & a UA A319 land on it.

BOS' 14-32, when completed, will most likely move the Cape Air Cessnas and the (American) Eagle Lawn Darts off of Runway 15R-33L.
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PVD757
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sat Oct 07, 2006 3:10 am

Colgan has more than a few SF3 ops and Commutair has several BE1 ops at BOS too - I'm sure they too will make good use of the "Cape Air" runway.
 
airbazar
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sat Oct 07, 2006 3:58 am

I don't see why that's so surprising. Last year BOS had an increase of 3.6% over 2004. And this year we're on track for an increase of about 5.5% over last year. As someone posted above, a 4% yearly increase is not terribly unusual.

Just look at what B6 expansion was like at JFK and that will be a big contributor here in BOS. They could also enter MHT and that would be a big increase there as well. Moreover, with the introduction of the 787 I think we'll see more international service from BOS. India and Eastern Europe for example are terribly under served from BOS.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
BOS needs to expand with an additional runway and additional gates just to keep up.

Actually construction on a new runway has finally began (not that it will make a huge difference), and there's a brand new, mostly empty terminal [A] awaiting new customers. Also, terminal E is terribly under utilized outside of the evening trans-atlantic rush hour.

Quoting ChrisNH (Thread starter):
Massachusetts is LOSING
population. I'd move out of that state, too, in the face of where
their intentions lie there.

That's fine by me. I actually pay not to live in NH. I live about 5 miles from the border  Smile Less people here is not necessarily bad, just try driving anywhere around rush hour. As long as those of us who stay can contribute, less of my taxes will be used to subsidise those who can't afford it.
 
PHLBOS
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sat Oct 07, 2006 4:26 am

Quoting PVD757 (Reply 34):
I'm sure they too will make good use of the "Cape Air" runway.

No doubt, I was just throwing a couple of examples.

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 35):
there's a brand new, mostly empty terminal [A] awaiting new customers.

IIRC, most if not all of those gates are leased (though not fully-used) to DL. Though they're in Chapter 11, DL may not be able to back away from whatever lease agreement they made w/Massport for all those gates. Also, they may be very reluctant to give them up to a potential competitor; especially FL, which could use some more gates.
"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sat Oct 07, 2006 4:49 am

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 36):
I actually pay not to live in NH.

You certainly do. And if one taxpayer leaves and five freeloaders come--and that's exactly what you'll get in Massachusetts--something has to give. That one taxpayer is going to be saddled with a high tax burden to pay for all that socialism. And if you think corporations are going to pick up the slack, guess again. They're leaving, too.

Chris in NH
 
PHLBOS
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sat Oct 07, 2006 5:19 am

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 37):
Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 36):
I actually pay not to live in NH.

Chris, that's not my quote. Airbazar was the one that stated that.

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 35):
I actually pay not to live in NH.

Something must've went haywire with the Quote Selected Text feature. That has happened before.
"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sat Oct 07, 2006 9:16 pm

Ooops! I'm sorry  sorry . I just copied the text and the system did the rest. I'm sorry...

Chris in NH
 
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sat Oct 07, 2006 10:48 pm

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 36):
IIRC, most if not all of those gates are leased (though not fully-used) to DL. Though they're in Chapter 11, DL may not be able to back away from whatever lease agreement they made w/Massport for all those gates.

.

They can and Massport is currently in negotiations with DL to do just that.
I think that going forward, with passenger numbers increasing and airport expansion plans being fought back by local residents, and expensive, we will see the rules about gate management chage. Airport management can no longer rely on a small number of airlines to keep the business growing, especially in a non-hub airport like BOS. We almost didn't get B6 here in BOS because of that antiquated system. The future is use it or loose it.
 
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sun Oct 08, 2006 12:08 am

Any thoughts as to how ORH might play in all of this?
TPAnx
I read the news today..oh boy
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sun Oct 08, 2006 9:01 am

Quoting BostonGuy (Reply 32):
Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 31):
Well, to be fair, you weren't discussing 'moving out of Logan permanently' and neither was I.

Actually, KC135TankerBoom was discussing a permanent move. And that is who I quoted and responded to. You quoted and responded to him, too.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
If airlines like DL and AA increase their international flights to the EU, they may need to do this from BOS. To accomplish this, perhaps cargo airlines like UPS, FedEx, and DHL can utilize the airport at PSM, thus freeing up some capacity at BOS for additional passenger service.

How could cargo airlines free capacity for international passenger airlines without permanently giving up their space?

That is correct, the moves I suggested should be permanent. BOS currently gets around 100-120 freighter movements each day (according to MassPort). Unless they build the new runway (the one they have been trying to get for what 25 years now), BOS will very soon begin to exceed it's design capacity (currently around 1200-1300 operations per day). The freighters account for 10% of the BOS traffic. A permanent move of this traffic to PSM (or even BED) will give BOS the additional time they need to get the new runway approved and built. Bring in 25-30 additional international traffic (50-60 operations per day), will replace the lost landing fee and parking revenue, because the internationals will be heavier planes, and BOS collects the additional passenger service fees.
 
Boston92
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sun Oct 08, 2006 9:15 am

Somebody said it would be like 4% a year growth. But you have to calibrate that 4% for MHT is different than LAX. LAX four % could be 150 additional flights while MHT four % might only be 3 additional flights a year.
"Why does a slight tax increase cost you $200 and a substantial tax cut save you 30 cents?"
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sun Oct 08, 2006 9:23 am

Well, forget BED. The NIMBYs there won't have it. They come out en masse (complete with sign-carrying recruits) every time the words 'airline' and 'Hanscom' are mentioned in the same sentence. The hypocricy of those people is blatant; 90% of the traffic at BED comprises loud corporate jets. But because the people who live in Lincoln, Concord, Bedford, and Lexington are some of the uppitiest of uppity-ups, many of those corporate jets are theirs. Clear as day.

Pease baffles me. I look at that airport and can't find a thing wrong: long runway and great highway access, plus minimal traffic and an accomodating population (in other words, NOT Hanscom people). Why Pease isn't a magnet for, at LEAST, cargo flights is beyond me. A case could be made for why it's not a draw for passenger carriers: too close to MHT; not convenient enough for the Boston market or Portland. But FedEx and UPS should LOVE PSM. And I cannot fathom why they don't serve that airport. I suppose it could be argued that their existing setups at MHT do the trick, and there's nothing to be gained by moving to PSM when things are working just fine at MHT.

Chris in NH
 
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Sun Oct 08, 2006 1:33 pm

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 44):
But because the people who live in Lincoln, Concord, Bedford, and Lexington are some of the uppitiest of uppity-ups, many of those corporate jets are theirs. Clear as day.

I agree. There are too many rich/snotty people who live here(I live in concord). Actually, I think some of the corperate jets at BED belong to corperations. I think only a few of concord residents actually own private jets(from what I know).

[Edited 2006-10-08 06:33:54]
 
airbazar
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Mon Oct 09, 2006 12:22 am

Quoting ChrisNH (Reply 44):
But FedEx and UPS should LOVE PSM. And I cannot fathom why they don't serve that airport. I suppose it could be argued that their existing setups at MHT do the trick, and there's nothing to be gained by moving to PSM when things are working just fine at MHT.

MHT is far better located than PSM. PSM is way too far to the East without any direct highway link form the West. The only highway access you have to PSM is I-95 (and to a lesser extent, I-495), but those are primarily North-South routes. For the purpose of bringing cargo by truck to be loaded onto planes, MHT is far more accesible and centraly located than PSM.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:39 am

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 46):
MHT is far better located than PSM. PSM is way too far to the East without any direct highway link form the West. The only highway access you have to PSM is I-95 (and to a lesser extent, I-495), but those are primarily North-South routes. For the purpose of bringing cargo by truck to be loaded onto planes, MHT is far more accesible and centraly located than PSM.

So what major east/west highway does MHT have? It does have I-93, again a north south highway. PSM does have direct access to I-95, US Route 1, and is only 12 miles down I-95 to I-495, the outer major loop around Boston, and another 14 miles to Rt. 128 (isn't it I-95 now?), the inner loop around Boston.

But, if MHT is where the FedEx and UPS mini hubs are now, then that is where the additional BOS traffic should go. Perhaps DHL/Airborne Express could go to PSM?
 
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chrisnh
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:00 pm

FedEx previously used MHT as a mini hub for the rest of northern New England. But then they changed strategy and decided to serve PWM and Burlington with their own planes. On the weekend, PWM/BTV are actually combined with one 727. The rest of the week, they each get their own jet.

The rest of Maine is served off that one flight (which is partially why it is an A310). Anything bound for Maine, I believe, is on that plane. Freight is either trucked or flown on feeders from there.

Burlington also gets its own FedEx flight. UPS goes in a whole other direction; they truly use MHT as a hub for northern New England since they have no dedicated flights to Portland and Burlington. The freight comes into MHT from Louisville on the UPS A300 (or 767) and from PHL on the 757 (or DC-8). It all gets sorted right there, and what is bound for other northern New England destinations gets put on little feeder aircraft waiting and ready to go each morning. The whole process reverses itself each afternoon, with the feeders coming back to MHT from BGR, PWM, Presque Isle, Rutland, Burlington, Keene, etc.

So if FedEx doesn't feed the rest of northern New England via MHT, why the need for big planes? One word: Mail! A ton of it.

DHL flies a 727-200 into MHT and a DC-9 into Portland. What comes into MHT is stuff destined for the general local area. They truck a lot of freight from MHT to other New England destinations after it arrives on the 727-200 from Wilmington, OH (with an intermediate stop in Allentown)...(especially Vermont, since Maine is handled with a dedicated DC-9),

For MHT, the main east-west road is Route 101. It's at its best from Manchester to the seacoast, where it is a fully divided and easy-to-drive highway. But to the west, it's a very dicey road with bad & dangerous stretches (Wilton>>>west especially). Not well-suited for the kind of traffic it sees. The State DOT knows this, but it's a 'Big Dig-like' project to make it look like the stretch running from Manchester to Seabrook/Hampton//the seacoast. That bit of road is marvelous to travel. It's a big reason why the giant Wal-Mart distribution center in Raymond, NH is where it is...right off the highway.

Chris in NH
 
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RE: Fed Study: BOS And MHT Will See Massive Growth

Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:40 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 47):
So what major east/west highway does MHT have? It does have I-93, again a north south highway.

It doesn't really need one, that's the beauty of it. Most of the business is along I-93 and Rt-3. MHT is right in the middle of it.