mcofreak
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:49 am

What Is FL Doing

Fri Oct 06, 2006 2:39 pm

OK OK I just want to ask a simple question. FL missed the boat on the MDW thing and also missed out on expanding big at BOS instead of B6, which I understand may have been primarily due to aircraft shortage but why do they seem so hesitant to expand any to the west. There load factor is dropping and they are slowing down aircraft deliveries and they seem to be adding alot of flights to already well served markets MDW-RSW etc. Bye the way I understand they have added some good routes also.... I just think they should add more west cities to compliment there great east coast routes.
 
N701AA
Posts: 48
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:08 pm

RE: What Is FL Doing

Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:00 pm

Quoting Mcofreak (Thread starter):
FL missed the boat on the MDW

I have a question for you...why go into MDW and compete head to head with Southwest?

Quoting Mcofreak (Thread starter):
I just think they should add more west cities to compliment there great east coast routes.

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't it until last year that FL stopped leasing A320's from Ryan to fly their west coast routes? With their present aircraft mix they probably need to establish a mid continent hub (expensive) to be able to serve the west. But again, you would be competing with carriers with more resources and presence than FL.
 
mcofreak
Posts: 47
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 3:49 am

RE: What Is FL Doing

Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:07 pm

Are they still not trying to expand MDW now with what they have even though WN is even bigger? They can co-exist just as they do at BWI and how AA and UA do at ORD.
 
B6WNQX
Posts: 192
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:28 pm

RE: What Is FL Doing

Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:16 pm

Quoting N701AA (Reply 1):
probably need to establish a mid continent hub

I don't think that they would need to do this just for the fleet. They are currently taking deliveries of 737-700's which have enough range to make the west coast to hawaii (Aloha uses them) so they should not have a problem making ATL to anywhere out here. They do fly to SEA (Seasonally), LAX, LAS, and SFO I believe.

They currently funnel some 717's through DFW to some west coast cities. They may be a little hesitant because of WN's presence out here along with F9, B6's transcons, AS, QX, along with all the majors. I know that hasn't stopped them from expanding on the east coast but they have name recognition back there. Just a thought.
 
DL WIDGET HEAD
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:24 pm

Quoting Mcofreak (Thread starter):
they seem so hesitant to expand any to the west. There load factor is dropping and they are slowing down aircraft deliveries

DL's putting the bite on them is what's happening. They would be better off (and so would DL) if FL moved to and hubbed out of IND IMO.

[Edited 2006-10-06 08:46:03]
 
N701AA
Posts: 48
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:08 pm

RE: What Is FL Doing

Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:30 pm

Quoting Mcofreak (Reply 2):
Are they still not trying to expand MDW now with what they have even though WN is even bigger?

In my opinion, what they are trying to do at MDW is avoid markets that compete head to head with SWA. With the exception on MCO, FL's hometown, other cities served are non SWA cities, like ATL, BOS, CLT, DFW, EWR, MSP and SRQ.

Quoting Mcofreak (Reply 2):
They can co-exist just as they do at BWI and how AA and UA do at ORD.

Usually when two airlines share a hub, one dominates and the other looses money. In ORD, UA dominates and AA looses money. In BWI when SWA landed USAir left town. In DFW, DL closed shop after years of trying to compete with AA. I think the reason FL has been able to co-exist with DL in ATL is that they have kept their capacity relatively small, with lower cost than DL, with enought traffic to make it work.
 
N701AA
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Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:08 pm

RE: What Is FL Doing

Fri Oct 06, 2006 3:45 pm

Quoting B6WNQX (Reply 3):

I don't think that they would need to do this just for the fleet. They are currently taking deliveries of 737-700's which have enough range to make the west coast to hawaii (Aloha uses them) so they should not have a problem making ATL to anywhere out here.

Absoluletly, but I don't think DL will stay quiet and let that happen. Any significant expansion by FL to the west out of ATL will be met by an onslaught of DL 757's and 767's with a 777 here and there. That would be good for us, but not for either airline.
 
AirScoot
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Fri Oct 06, 2006 9:13 pm

Quoting N701AA (Reply 5):
In ORD, UA dominates and AA looses money.

Are you sure that AA loses money at ORD? If so, what source are you going by? I'd say they're definately not dominate there but they do have quite a business.
 
N701AA
Posts: 48
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 10:08 pm

RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 12:06 am

Quoting AirScoot (Reply 7):
Are you sure that AA loses money at ORD? If so, what source are you going by?

Read it in an article about the future of hub networking. Maybe an AA Insider in this forum can comment further.
 
rumorboy
Posts: 294
Joined: Sun Aug 25, 2002 1:06 am

RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 1:38 am

Quoting DL Widget Head (Reply 4):
DL's putting the bite on them is what's happening. They would be better off (and so would DL) if FL moved to and hubbed out of IND IMO.

I don't think thats going to happen anytime soon.

That would Greenstien's wet dream.  rotfl 
 
worldtraveler
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 4:28 am

Quoting N701AA (Reply 5):
I think the reason FL has been able to co-exist with DL in ATL is that they have kept their capacity relatively small, with lower cost than DL, with enought traffic to make it work.

FL has commented that they have been surprised that DL is as aggressive in growing ATL given DL's overall domestic capacity. FL doesn't have much gate space to grow in ATL but they are finding that DL is keeping more than enough seats in the market to keep from FL from getting the bump they expected. FL's load factor was down on quite a bit more capacity for September while DL's was up on less capacity, although as much or more flights in most of the primary business destinations. DL has reduced its connecting traffic at ATL and is competing more effectively for the ATL local passenger. FL will find it harder to compete with DL whose costs are much lower now.

FL does need a strategic breakthrough, some place they can call their own but right now FL is second fiddle to someone else in every major market they serve. Some airlines can make that role work but it's not typical for a carrier the size of FL.
 
srbmod
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Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 1:32 pm

RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 4:47 am

Quoting B6WNQX (Reply 3):
They currently funnel some 717's through DFW to some west coast cities.

Not anymore. They dropped DFW-LAX not too long after they started it, and DFW-LAS is about to be dropped to a seasonal service. The DFW-LAS flight had been a continuation of an ATL-DFW flight and was the first leg of a LAS-DFW-ATL flight. They've been using the 73G on the route for quite sometime, as the route was quite popular out of and into ATL.

Quoting N701AA (Reply 1):
Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't it until last year that FL stopped leasing A320's from Ryan to fly their west coast routes?

The last Ryan International-operated flights were about two years ago.
 
B6WNQX
Posts: 192
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2006 12:28 pm

RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 4:53 am

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 11):
Not anymore.

Very good to know. Thanks for the info.
 
boslax
Posts: 73
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 12:34 pm

RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 4:53 am

From Aug 2005 to Sep 2006, Delta's monthly capacity in the ATL markets where FL operates nonstop service was down year over year. In a few of those months, DL's capacity was down over 20%. Well it looks like DL is now bringing back capacity in these markets - Nov 2006 DL capacity will be up 13%. Maybe this is what is making FL nervous.
 
access-air
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 5:05 am

I think that St.Louis would be a nice place for Air Tran to set down as a focus city of sorts and bring some full sized airliners into the area ratehr than subject STL to nothing but Regional jets of AAEagle....Of course WN has alarge operation out of STL but not to everywhere.....Just an Idea....

Access-Air
Remember, Wherever you go, there you are!!!!
 
MarkATL
Posts: 486
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 6:17 am

Quoting N701AA (Reply 5):
With the exception on MCO, FL's hometown

I would be hesitant to put much stock in the "hometown" thing with FL. The original FL was a little known vacation airline with one to three times a week service to most of it's cities. ValuJet needing a new face after the MIA crash bought them for their name and address (MCO). Today's FL is for all practical purposes the same ATL based ValuJet.
"...left my home in Georgia, 'n headed for the "Frisco" Bay...
 
rumorboy
Posts: 294
Joined: Sun Aug 25, 2002 1:06 am

RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 7:18 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 10):
FL will find it harder to compete with DL whose costs are much lower now.

Either way you slice it Airtan will still have about a 40% cost advantage(adjusted to Airtran's stage legnth) against Delta even after bankruptcy.
 
atrude777
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 7:40 am

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 14):
I think that St.Louis would be a nice place for Air Tran to set down as a focus city of sorts and bring some full sized airliners into the area ratehr than subject STL to nothing but Regional jets of AAEagle....Of course WN has alarge operation out of STL but not to everywhere.....Just an Idea....

While an Idea, STL is certainly up on FL's list but how soon no idea.

And it is American Connection, not Eagle. Only have 3 or 4 Eagle flights out of STL.

There are a ton of places FL can fly to out of STL without touching WN, RSW, BOS, LGA, ATL, SFO, SAN.

Alex
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
worldtraveler
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Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 10:03 am

Quoting Rumorboy (Reply 16):
Either way you slice it Airtan will still have about a 40% cost advantage(adjusted to Airtran's stage legnth) against Delta even after bankruptcy.

FL's system cost advantage now is less than 20% of DL's even on a mileage adjusted basis and shrinking as DL continues to cut costs.
 
atlaaron
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Sat Oct 07, 2006 10:18 am

I have to agree that they need to work on building a second hub somewhere. Then overtime they can slowly or overnight (such as DL shutting DFW) make that their dominant hub. Now that DL is become a leaner more cost effective carrier FL will continue to be battled head on. If they want to keep growing like Wall Street wants them to, they will need something other than ATL.
 
callsigncitrus
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Mon Oct 09, 2006 8:32 am

FL is still looking at mdw for a second hub. they did alot of expanding this past year to markets that they already serve. i think this upcoming year will be a big growth year launching some new cities. Heck, they have already announced Newburgh (New York) as FL's newest city and its not even Jan yet. I think 2007 will be an awesome year for FL.
 
atlaaron
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:12 am

Quoting Callsigncitrus (Reply 20):
FL is still looking at mdw for a second hub.

I certainly think they could find somewhere better than MDW. O/D passengers looking for low fares in Chicago are already being serviced by WN .
 
quickmover
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:53 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 18):
FL's system cost advantage now is less than 20% of DL's even on a mileage adjusted basis and shrinking as DL continues to cut costs.

Seems ironic that Delta might end up with lower costs than both FL and WN (ex fuel hedges).
 
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STT757
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:05 am

Hopefully with AA and UAL pulling out of MDW FL can add some more flights, I think FL would be ideally situated with somewhere between 58-60 daily flights at MDW.

For new Midway routes they should add some West Coast connections which would obviously compete with WN such as LAS, LAX, SFO. However I would focus on adding East Coast Business markets such as;

Rochester (2xs daily), Laguardia (5xs daily), Washington Nation (3xs daily), Westchester 2xs daily etc.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
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STT757
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:10 am

As for new airports I think there's alot of potential in New Jersey, particularly Trenton Mercer Airport and Atlantic City International Airport.

Trenton Mercer:
FLL 1 daily, MCO 2 daily, TPA 1 daily, MDW 2 daily, ATL 2 daily, BOS 3 daily

Atlantic City:

Atlanta 3 daily, MDW 2 daily.

Atlantic City and Trenton are two places FL could turn to to serve both the Philadelphia and New Jersey markets without competiting so much with WN and US at PHL.

Perhaps keep ATL and BOS flights as they are at PHL but move the Florida flights to Trenton and Atlantic City.

Trenton is in a much more populated and affluent area than SWF, and Atlantic City has a large and growing regional population, growing tourism industry, and conveinent access to Philadelphia and New Jersey.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
rumorboy
Posts: 294
Joined: Sun Aug 25, 2002 1:06 am

RE: What Is FL Doing

Mon Oct 09, 2006 12:12 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 18):
FL's system cost advantage now is less than 20% of DL's even on a mileage adjusted basis and shrinking as DL continues to cut costs.

Really?

2nd quarter 06

non fuel CASM / Stage length

LUV 6.68 / 619
AAI 6.29 / 652
JBLU 5.17 / 1253

Delta's last results were for AUG 06

DAL 6.66 / 1020

Not even close if you adjust Delta's stage legnth to LUV or AAI

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 22):
Seems ironic that Delta might end up with lower costs than both FL and WN (ex fuel hedges

just as Delta is lowering costs so are LUV and AAI. Both are projecting there non fuel casm to decrease between 3-5% for the year. Delta has made great strides in getting there costs down but they are a long way to getting as low as LUV or AAI.

IMO Delta's really going to do well is in the revenue side just because of the oversea's flying. Thats where the money is. Something that LUV and AAI will never touch.
 
N200WN
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Mon Oct 09, 2006 12:21 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
For new Midway routes they should add some West Coast connections which would obviously compete with WN such as LAS, LAX, SFO

I don't think MDW-LAS would be such a good market for FL. WN is running a high frequency service on the route with eleven nonstops a day plus two one-stops. I can't think of another WN route with that long a stage length and that frequency of service. It would be difficult for FL to compete with that.

Same for LAX, though not as high, there are still seven nonstops on that route. Plus all sorts of other cities to connect through if one needed to.
 
steeler83
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:44 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 23):
For new Midway routes they should add some West Coast connections which would obviously compete with WN such as LAS, LAX, SFO.

While it is true FL would compete head to head with MDW-LAS/LAX, it would not on MDW-SFO, at least directly anyway. WN does not serve SFO... But still...

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 22):
Seems ironic that Delta might end up with lower costs than both FL and WN (ex fuel hedges).

Now that would be messed up! A legacy to have lower costs than a LFCC (a Low-Frigging-Cost Carrier)!!!!  Big grin
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
quickmover
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:41 pm

Quoting Rumorboy (Reply 25):
just as Delta is lowering costs so are LUV and AAI.

I'm not so sure about that. AAI has been trying to get a new labor agreement with the pilots for a while now. I'm not sure where the flight attendants stand, but there hasn't been any progress for awhile. The 717s are not getting any newer, of course neither is Delta's fleet, but maintenance will increase over time.
 
atct
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RE: What Is FL Doing

Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:26 pm

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 14):
ratehr than subject STL to nothing but Regional jets of AAEagle

Are you forgetting Regex's JetStream 32s???

Jeez, and I thought better of you! :P


Personally I like Citrus's focus on the east coast. Allegheny/Piedmont did this back in the day and they clinched their markets respectively. If you can hold the east coast, you will make money (granted management doesnt screw up...which is rare that they dont)

ATCT
Trikes are for kids!
 
rumorboy
Posts: 294
Joined: Sun Aug 25, 2002 1:06 am

RE: What Is FL Doing

Tue Oct 10, 2006 4:53 am

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 28):
I'm not so sure about that. AAI has been trying to get a new labor agreement with the pilots for a while now. I'm not sure where the flight attendants stand, but there hasn't been any progress for awhile. The 717s are not getting any newer, of course neither is Delta's fleet, but maintenance will increase over time.

pilots still are in negotiations. Flight attendant's settled there contract a couple of years ago. 717's are getting costlier BUT they are taking new aircraft almost once a month(even with the new capacity growth forecast). As long as they keep adding ASM's there costs will keep coming down. Same as LUV is doing. here's guidance from SEC filing for AAI.


http://biz.yahoo.com/e/060907/aai8-k.html

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