Glom
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How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 5:45 am

The dire straits of Airbus of 2006 are the sequel to 2005. In 2005, they still got more orders than Boeing. If they repeat a similar thing this year, how can we really say they are in dire straits?
 
pbottenb
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 5:58 am

Why?

cause they want their money for nuthin' and their chicks for free...



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qqXOFWPGKA
 
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shamrock350
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 5:58 am

They have had some problems with the A380 and old A350 was well not very good compared to the 787 as we all know.
I thought Airbus was on the up in July when the XWB was announced and then when SQ ordered 20 XWBs and 9 more 380s. Sadly the A380 being delayed again hit them hard and then rumours of the A350X being delayed as well made possible airlines (EI/BA/LF/EK/QR) doubt Airbus.
I don't think they can pull off what they did last year and it will take a long time for Airbus to build up it's confidence.
 
American777
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 6:04 am

Quoting Glom (Thread starter):
How Far Behind Is Airbus?

FIFTEEN YEARS behind BOEING!!!!!

JOE.  biggrin 
 
EMBQA
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 6:18 am

Well.... over 2-3/4 years they have only sold 30 A380's... none so far this year. The last significate order was in 2002 and that was for 34. The A350 program is a disaster. Market sales trends are showing that airlines do not want to 'superjumbo'. Boeing never went on with their design.. Airbus did. The next year or so will show who is right.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
Glom
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 6:32 am

But with Airbus floundering as it is and Boeing going from strength to strength, how could it be that they could still be just barely beating them?
 
bringiton
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 6:46 am

I think that the CEO's assessment should be fairly accurate as i doubt anyone know the real deal over here at a.net better or at least as much as him. having said that he might have exaggerated it a little to get concessions from board members and politicians ": better act now or we are toast " etc . I think that with the A380 in trouble they have to squeeze money and resources to the A350 if they want to stay competitive in the widebody market . The 350XWB is all ready some 4 years behind the Dreamliner ( granted that its the -9 variant ) but if they try to extend the time line further they might just miss the boat as they say ! Boeing all ready has something close to 30 airlines lined up for the Dreamliner , a delayed A350 could mean trouble for the chances of Airbus to compete specially when boeing can take their time to CUT SAFETY MARGINS of the basic 787 and Croat improved efficiencies for the -10 in the basic design and components . Meanwhile , while they swallow the losses and plan ahead with the A350 , they cannot loose focus on the A320 replacement which will be the biggest strategic asset for them in this business!
 
swissy
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 6:46 am

It depends what your are looking for, technology wise I would say almost on par, upper management  thumbsdown 

Over all, not bad considering they are 50 years less in business than B  Wink

Cheers,
 
steph001
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 6:55 am

I guess it's very difficult to give an exact answer to your question, due to the fact that predicting future is not at all easy and that very few, if any, people on this forum have enough information about both Boeing and Airbus to make a very precise statement. I'll try to sum up some information running on various media and on this forum to make a guess:


  • in the medium haul market (A320 series vs. B737 NG) Airbus and Boeing are quite even, nevertheless this market is not the real cash cow for A or B
  • in the long haul market, the B777 proves to be more accepted by airlines then the A340 and the A330 is also more accepted by airliens than the B767. Both companies have developed a new product for the segment, Boeing the B787 and Airbus the A350. Boeing is definitely more advanced with the 787 than Airbus with the A350 having orders for a significant amount of planes, if things run as planned by Boeing the B787 will be earlier on the market than the A350(XWB or whatever).
  • in the long haul market for very large aircraft Airbus seemed to be the favorite till the problems with the A380 occured. The redesign of the B747 sold some frames in the freighter version and will probably sell also some frames in the passenger version if the delays with the A380 aren't sorted out.


The whole problem in making a decent prediction is that Boeing is as dependent on the B787 project as Airbus is on the A380 project and on the A350 project. The problems with the A380 seem quite big right now, but media and people have always a (natural) tendency of overreacting to negative news. If things stay the way they are now (the B787 project running as planned and several delays on the A380 project to come), then Boeing is the winner in the medium run and Airbus will have to invest a lot of money to build up a new competitive long haul product. If some unpredicted problems turn out with the B787, then I would guess that both competitors are even. If the problems with the A380 are sorted out, then A is still lagging, but has a product in a market where B has nothing to offer and such a product could be in the long run a cash cow for A, allowing them to reduce the lag vs. B.
 
N31029
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 9:04 am

Quoting Steph001 (Reply 8):
joined exactly 3 years ago today!

Happy A.net birthday, Steph001!

Also, thank you for a very balanced and objective post. Well done.

Both manufacturers are successful aircraft producers. Both have some extraordinary products. Both are charting new ground.

Stepping out over the edge is never easy. I believe Airbus will recover and Boeing will work hard to learn from its competitor's challenges.

I think it is good for commercial aviation - and for us as enthusiasts - to have two manufacturers producing a variety of airplanes. I for one wish we still had Fokker, McDonnell-Douglas, Lockheed, etc., producing new aircraft. Variety is the spice of life and these manufacturers launched some colorful birds that differentiated our hobby nicely.

Airbus is a, relatively speaking, very young company. They have stumbled and stumbled badly. But that is a fact of life - the road to success is never smooth the entire journey. Airbus will rebound. Boeing knows that the B787 Dreamliner is an ambitious project, and, that if planning and execution isn't picture perfect it too could end up with some very unwelcome issues to work through.

As a fan of commercial aviation I am rooting for both A & B product lines to be full of successful & interesting choices that we, as passionate onlookers, can enjoy discussing and flying for years.

Blessings, N31029
John 3:16
 
steph001
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 3:46 pm

Quoting N31029 (Reply 9):
Happy A.net birthday, Steph001!

Thank you Wink
 
mpdpilot
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 4:01 pm

so what are we considering winning and loosing on here. is it orders, profit, press. I am not to sure that one company is really winning or loosing both companies have their areas to improve and as much as I love boeing a fair amount of their success is based on an unbuilt airplane. one might say that boeing is more likely to deliver ontime than airbus but the A380 is a great example of things just not going as planned. I would have to say that Boeing is having better PR than Airbus currently but I don't think there is any winner or looser here.
One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
 
manni
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 4:07 pm

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 4):
Well.... over 2-3/4 years they have only sold 30 A380's... none so far this year.

The A380 hasn't been selling like the A320, but let's stick to the facts and not paint the picture worse than it looks in reality.

Let's go back 2 years. Since October 2004 Thai, Korean, Etihad, UPS, China Southern and Kingfisher signed for the A380. That makes 35 A380's.

Now if we go back to june 2003 (as you mentioned a timeframe over 2-3/4 years), 3 years and 4 months ago, there was an order for 21 from EK. QR and MH also firmed up their contracts in your chosen timeframe, add 8.

If you like to stick to the facts, you might want to change that into 'Well... over 2-3/4 years they have 'only' sold 64 A380's, none so far this year.
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klkla
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 4:19 pm

Quoting Glom (Thread starter):
In 2005, they still got more orders than Boeing

That's debatable. It's fairly obvious that they fudged the numbers and applied some sales that were not finalized until 2006 into the 2005 sales totals (the Chinese A320 orders) to make it APPEAR they beat Boeing last year. That is when their facade began to unravel.

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 2):
I thought Airbus was on the up in July when the XWB was announced and then when SQ ordered 20 XWBs and 9 more 380s

There's a decent chace that the A350XWB will NEVER be built. They need a serious cash infusion in order to pull this off, not to mention they don't have the engineering staff to do it even if they had the money.

Quoting Steph001 (Reply 8):
in the long haul market, the B777 proves to be more accepted by airlines then the A340 and the A330 is also more accepted by airliens than the B767

The A330 only competes with the 767-400. Mostly it competes with the 777-200. When you combine 767-400 & 777-200 sales with both A330 models as it should be it's hard to support your statement that it's 'more accepted'.

In the end Airbus has been very arrogant and has taken advantage of it's PAST abilities to finance on the cheap. Going forward the company will have to operate like any other public corporation and be accountable for it's product, planning, profitablily and ACCOUNTABILITY. The next five to ten years will be very humbling and challenging for them but they will be stronger in the long run.
 
steph001
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 4:23 pm

Quoting Klkla (Reply 13):
The A330 only competes with the 767-400. Mostly it competes with the 777-200. When you combine 767-400 & 777-200 sales with both A330 models as it should be it's hard to support your statement that it's 'more accepted'.

I was only thinking at how many B767 have been sold after the A330 entered service. Even if the A330 doesn't compete with the B767-200,-300,-200ER and -300ER directly, some airlines (not few) decided to replace ther older B767 with A330 and not with newer builds of the B767 or with B777-200's.
 
cricket
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 4:25 pm

Airbus' problems run deep - but I would assume that they are far more serious on the engineering and manufacturing side than on the marketing side. Boeing knew it had the engineering resources to pull off a new paradigm in aircraft manufacturing, and even designed the 'snap-fit' bit of the 787 fuselage copying Airbus' practices. But Airbus has not able to pull off the snap-fit job on the A380.
A300B2/B4/6R, A313, A319/320/321, A333, A343, A388, 737-2/3/4/7/8/9, 747-3/4, 772/2E/2L/3, E170/190, F70, CR2/7, 146-3,
 
Rheinbote
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 5:35 pm

How far behind F-22/F-35 is the Eurofighter Typhoon in design and manufacturing technologies? What are the implications, if any, to the commercial aircraft sector?
 
chiad
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 5:47 pm

Quoting Glom (Thread starter):
The dire straits of Airbus of 2006 are the sequel to 2005. In 2005, they still got more orders than Boeing. If they repeat a similar thing this year, how can we really say they are in dire straits?

Airbus did NOT sell more A/C than Boeing in 2005.
Take away the orders for the redesigned A350/A350XWB, which has not been launched, and you will see.
I have a link here to though I dont know if it's 100% correct. But Boeing had more orders for sure!
http://www.justplanes.com/orders.htm

But still with all the A380 trouble it's really interesting to see how the airlines stick to their orders and still dont go for the B748i.
My guess is that they analyze the B748i as obsolete compared to the A380. And I also guess that when the airlines see these A/C being in service for 20 years+ they imagine running the loosing horse for all this time would make it a bad investment.
All the orders for the B748i are still just cargo planes (probably because they cant or wont change their infrastructure) ... and perhaps 1 unidentified VIP plane.

The A380 must be an amazing plane. Cant wait for the EIS. And imagine when the first engine upgrade comes.
I think that if Airbus can just get the A380 in service they will never regret that they started on this path.
 
Poitin
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 6:02 pm

The question is not how far behind Airbus is, but who is going to fix the problem. Right now Streiff is threatening to walk if he doesn't get his way. If he doesn't get what he needs to sort out Airbus, then it will continue to fall behind. If he does, I would say he would have Airbus sorted out in less than 10 years, and more like seven.

Airbus has great protential, what it needs is leadership. Perhaps it will be Streiff or someone else, I hope so, because I do not want a world of only Boeing aircraft any more than I want a world of only Airbus.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Khalyavia
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 6:26 pm

Quoting Steph001 (Reply 8):
I'll try to sum up some information running on various media and on this forum to make a guess:

Thanks for your sober "non-partisan" analysis, Steph. One thing, though, that I think bodes ill for A is the prospect that B's market estimates prove correct (ie, that the future market for wide-bodies is in the 250-350 range), in which case it isn't enough for A to be competitive "overall" across the product line. Even with the new A350, A seems set to cede to B the 250-300 market. If A goes on now to cancel or materially delay the A350, then A is left with 1) a "draw" vs. B in the narrow-body market, 2) a virtual monopoly in VLA vs. B (which may not be a viable market in the future) and 3) inferior products (until A350) vs. B in what very well might be "sweet spot" for the future commercial aircraft market. I think this is what Streiff is referring to when he gives the "ten years behind" speech.

Frankly, I'm shocked that they would consider dropping A350 or even delaying it further. This is the aircraft A needs yesterday.

Thanks again.

Cheers!
 
Glom
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 7:26 pm

Quoting Chiad (Reply 17):
Airbus did NOT sell more A/C than Boeing in 2005.

Well there is some controversy on what is being counted, but for a company in meltdown, they are still making Boeing fight for dominance.
 
EDDB
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 7:51 pm

Worst case 4-5 years behind, cause that's what the 787 program is ahead, and I really can't see where else they should be behind! A380? Still in front cause no orders yet for 748i. A320? No comment needed! A330/340? History once A350 launched!
Best case? Unless Boeing is not experiencing problems with the 787, I don't see a chance to catch up... Though I think their strategy to attack both 787 AND 777 could make up for this! Time will tell...
 
bringiton
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 7:54 pm

Personally I am quite surprised to see the A32- orders and those of the 737NG! Is this because of the runaway sucess of the 787 and a strong 777 in the last 2 years which has enabled boeing to do so well with this aircraft ?
 
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shamrock350
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 7:58 pm

I don't think the A350XWB will be dropped. If it is dropped or even delayed Airbus must be in more trouble than we all first thought. The A350XWB is the aircraft that can save Airbus, just think of how many airlines would want an aircraft like this. The problems with the A350 is that it's late and this is mainly due to the old A350/A330E not attracting enough "big" airlines and being forced into a redesign.
Hopefully Airbus can sort out the A380 and start to put their full attention and focus on the XWB.
 
bringiton
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:12 pm

Although I agree with you Shamrock but I personally believe that atleast the A350-10 is a bit ahead of its time and might well face stiff challenge relativly shortly after its EIS from the Y3 ( if its ever launched , but airbus has to consider both scenarios) , however the -9 should do the best out of them all IMO unless boeing does some wonders with the 787-10 .
 
EMBQA
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:23 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 12):
If you like to stick to the facts,

My facts can directly off the Airbus website...go to the historical web page and read yourself.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
manni
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Sun Oct 08, 2006 11:29 pm

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 25):
My facts can directly off the Airbus website.

The information I provided is correct and does not match the information you provided. I took you to the letter, you've given yourself a huge margin over time and no margin in frames ordered, and went back 2 to 4 years. If there are any inaccuracies in the information I provided, let me know.

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 25):
go to the historical web page and read yourself.

I tried. But I can't find anything reffering to a historical web page. Could you provide a link? Thanks.
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Stitch
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 12:31 am

Quoting Glom (Thread starter):
The dire straits of Airbus of 2006 are the sequel to 2005. In 2005, they still got more orders than Boeing. If they repeat a similar thing this year, how can we really say they are in dire straits?

Boeing was leading the sales charts prior to their production snafus in 1997, yet in 1999 they only sold a bit more then half the planes they did in 1998 (355 vs. 606) while many airlines were reporting record profits thanks to the Tech Boom.

Airbus is sailing strong now, but there are "rocks and shoals" on the horizon. It is unlikely these will rip the bottom out of the ship and scuttle her, but that shouldn't mean one cruises straight into them at flank speed, either...  Smile
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:07 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 12):
If you like to stick to the facts, you might want to change that into 'Well... over 2-3/4 years they have 'only' sold 64 A380's, none so far this year.

But Airbus needs to sell 40-50 per year just to match their planned production rate and to hope to have a chance for program profitability. Unless this starts happening soon, it will represent another crisis for the A380.

What year to you think sales will start picking up?
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
BoomBoom
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 2:09 am

Quoting EDDB (Reply 21):
A320? No comment needed!

Is that because the 737 is outselling it this year?
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 2:19 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 29):
Is that because the 737 is outselling it this year?

What a lame comment - we have also seen times when the A320 outsold the B737. Fact is both models have been in a head-to-head race over years, with both having advantages over each other.


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
11Bravo
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 2:37 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 28):
What year to you think sales will start picking up?

How about never? I will be very surprised to see Airbus produce all the A380s that are on the order-books now. By the time Airbus fixes the current problems and restores customer confidence in their ability to produce on-time and on-spec products, the A380 will be well behind the CASM curve.
WhaleJets Rule!
 
mham001
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 2:46 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 20):

Well there is some controversy on what is being counted, but for a company in meltdown, they are still making Boeing fight for dominance.

Huge monolithic companies can make many blunders before they begin to tilt the ship, unlike a small company where every decision can make or break. The factt that Airbus nearly matched Boeing in sales last year does not represent its long term health. Likewise, it will take many smart decisions and time to right the ship again.

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 23):
I don't think the A350XWB will be dropped. If it is dropped or even delayed Airbus must be in more trouble than we all first thought. The A350XWB is the aircraft that can save Airbus, just think of how many airlines would want an aircraft like this. The problems with the A350 is that it's late and this is mainly due to the old A350/A330E not attracting enough "big" airlines and being forced into a redesign.

Among the blunders of Airbus has been market timing. There are some serious questions about the timing of introducing a 772 replacement. Airbus appeared to be fishing for a Boeing weak spot more than filling a real void or need with the airlines.
 
EDDB
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 3:18 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 32):
Among the blunders of Airbus has been market timing. There are some serious questions about the timing of introducing a 772 replacement. Airbus appeared to be fishing for a Boeing weak spot more than filling a real void or need with the airlines.

Au contraire! It was the customers, mainly EK and LH, who complained that the 787 might be a bit to small for their expansion plans, so Airbus IS actually listening to what the market needs!
Not to mention that when you're second on the stage and your competitor already sold a lot of frames, you simply HAVE to come up with something different! Or do you want to sell the same sh... twice to the airlines???
 
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Stitch
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 3:33 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 32):
Among the blunders of Airbus has been market timing. There are some serious questions about the timing of introducing a 772 replacement. Airbus appeared to be fishing for a Boeing weak spot more than filling a real void or need with the airlines.

I see at least five reasons for the A350XWB:

  • Replace the A340 family, which is losing sales traction to the 777.
  • Shore-up the A333 market and extend the A332 market.
  • Prevent Boeing from securing the first round of A340 and 777 replacement orders with more 777s.
  • Force Boeing to advance the 787 family faster then planned (787-10).
  • Pressure Boeing on the 777 family for current and near-future sales.

As EDDB noted, there are many A343 operators who want a new twin-engine plane. Their only choice right now is the 772ER (since the A333 doesn't have the range). For airlines like SQ and EK, who already fly the 772ER, it's an option, but they'd like something more efficient. And for airlines like LH, who don't operate the 777, it's a new type they'd need to add in addition to wanting something more efficient.

Now, Airbus does have to worry that if they wait too long to bring the A350XWB to market, they will miss-out on the first-wave of replacement sales as well as arrive after the current replacement and expansion order cycles have been completed.

However, by waiting, Airbus has the ability to better tailor the A350XWB family to both the 787 and whatever improvements Boeing can incorporate into the 777 family.

I'm a little skeptical on Boeing being able to launch Y3 "at will". Mainly because the suppliers need to come up to speed and Boeing will be under pressure to add a second 787 line as well as prepare for Y1's launch.

So even if Airbus waits till the latter half of the 2010's to come out with a CFRP/bleedless A350XWB to truly put a stake into the heart of the 777 family, Boeing won't be able to instantly counter with the Y3 - and may very well not want to, letting the 777 fade away for a half-decade or so while they ramp-up Y1 and improve the 787. After all, they were content to let the 767 solider on against the A332 while they worked to bring the 777 to market and improve it.
 
474218
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 3:39 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 12):
Let's go back 2 years. Since October 2004 Thai, Korean, Etihad, UPS, China Southern and Kingfisher signed for the A380. That makes 35 A380's

Airbus has announced when they get to full production in 2010 they will produce 45 A380's a year. If they only sell 35 in two years they are in real trouble. How aircraft a year do they need to deliver to make a profit?
 
sonic67
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 3:54 am

Quoting Mham001 (Reply 32):
Among the blunders of Airbus has been market timing. There are some serious questions about the timing of introducing a 772 replacement. Airbus appeared to be fishing for a Boeing weak spot more than filling a real void or need with the airlines.

I guess timing is every thing in the case of when Boeing launching the 787. Airbus will probably try to do the same in the next few years.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 4:57 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 30):
What a lame comment - we have also seen times when the A320 outsold the B737. Fact is both models have been in a head-to-head race over years, with both having advantages over each other.

Udo, perhaps you should address you lame comment to EDDB who seems to think the 737NG is not competitive with the A320.

Quoting EDDB (Reply 21):
...I really can't see where else they [Airbus] should be behind!
A320? No comment needed!
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
BoomBoom
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 4:58 am

Quoting EDDB (Reply 33):
Au contraire! It was the customers, mainly EK and LH, who complained that the 787 might be a bit to small for their expansion plans, so Airbus IS actually listening to what the market needs!

EK and LH are not the whole market.

Look at the 787 order book!
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 5:11 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 37):
perhaps you should address you lame comment to EDDB who seems to think the 737NG is not competitive with the A320.

When did he suggest that? Here's what he wrote:

Quoting EDDB (Reply 21):
Worst case 4-5 years behind, cause that's what the 787 program is ahead, and I really can't see where else they should be behind! A380? Still in front cause no orders yet for 748i. A320? No comment needed! A330/340? History once A350 launched!

Not being behind doesn't necessarily mean being ahead - hasn't there been a head-to-head race between B737NG and A320 for years (without a clear winner)?


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
mham001
Posts: 4223
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:08 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):

# Replace the A340 family, which is losing sales traction to the 777.
# Shore-up the A333 market and extend the A332 market.
# Prevent Boeing from securing the first round of A340 and 777 replacement orders with more 777s.
# Force Boeing to advance the 787 family faster then planned (787-10).
# Pressure Boeing on the 777 family for current and near-future sales.

Airbus and Boeing analysis both indicate the sweet spot in the market is right where Boeing has landed. A lot of those specs Airbus presented for its 777-killer didn't add up and all presumed that Boeing would stand still. Airbus would be well advised to rethink the 350. I reiterate, it is little more than looking for the tiniest weakness in Boeing linup. That will not keep Airbus on top.

Another thing that Airbus is at a severe disadvantage is development time, which they have admitted. Currently its Boeing at 4 years, Airbus-6 and unless Airbus improves this, that disparity will grow as Boeing expects their development time down to at least 3 years-soon.

I don't believe the Boeing crisis of '97 compares with what we see at Airbus now. The difference is that Airbus will get bailed out much quicker. That bailout will insure that Airbus' real recovery will take much longer, if they ever fully recover.
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:22 am

Quoting EDDB (Reply 33):
Au contraire! It was the customers, mainly EK and LH, who complained that the 787 might be a bit to small for their expansion plans, so Airbus IS actually listening to what the market needs!

That is the conventional wisdom on EK (and QR?), but in sizing the A350-800XWB as they did, are they neglecting the A300/A310/767 replacement market? (Yes, I know. It's been discussed a zillion times). My takes is "yes, they are".
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
thebry
Posts: 333
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 7:22 am

Quoting Glom (Reply 20):
Well there is some controversy on what is being counted, but for a company in meltdown, they are still making Boeing fight for dominance.

I disagree with this. A peek at this year's order book flies in the face of your comment. The unfortunate fact remains -- Boeing has licked Airbus in orders so far this year by a huge margin. 737, 767(!!), 787, 777 and 747 have all posted orders for the year in most cases "besting" their peer-level craft from Airbus. That doesn't, to my eyes, look like an Airbus "...making Boeing fight for dominance." To me it looks like Boeing is making hay while the sun shines, and taking that to the bank.

The pendulum swings both ways. This is Boeing's time to shine. Airbus' time will come again, but for now, Boeing has the limelight while Airbus cleans up shop.
 
EDDB
Posts: 217
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 7:56 am

@PlaneHunter

Thanks for jumping in!

Some people will always interpret the 'old europe' posts the way they want to and not the way they're actually meant! Can't help it... And actually I don't really care anymore, cause I don't have the time (and don't see the need) to explain myself again and again! There are people on a.net who are interested in high quality discussion, like Stitch and many more, and then there are... others!
But like I said... I can't help it!

What gives me hope is that some still seem to be able to reflect on themselves, or maybe I'm also in danger of misinterpreting things...

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 38):
There is a very fine line between "hobby" and "mental illness."



Quoting Lumberton (Reply 41):
That is the conventional wisdom on EK (and QR?), but in sizing the A350-800XWB as they did, are they neglecting the A300/A310/767 replacement market? (Yes, I know. It's been discussed a zillion times). My takes is "yes, they are".

I totally agree with you, they decided to neglect the low capacity end of the market and decided to go for the other end, but as I tried to explain... What other choice did they have? When you're 4-5 years behind, you can't go for the same segment as your competitor and hope that there's enough market share left then! Don't you think?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
Now, Airbus does have to worry that if they wait too long to bring the A350XWB to market, they will miss-out on the first-wave of replacement sales as well as arrive after the current replacement and expansion order cycles have been completed.

 checkmark 

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
I'm a little skeptical on Boeing being able to launch Y3 "at will". Mainly because the suppliers need to come up to speed and Boeing will be under pressure to add a second 787 line as well as prepare for Y1's launch.

Me too! At the moment they prepare to put 3 versions of a new to build airliner into service, maybe even four, plus two new versions of the 747! That's not how it's been done in the past! Past airliner programs evolved over the years, now Boeing is changing the game! And I think they know quite well that this effort will consume a lot of manpower, maybe that's already one reason why they didn't launch the -10 yet, who knows...
But what is quite obvious is that there is so much work ahead that launching Y1 and especially Y3 is still years down the road!
And let's not forget, new airliner programs are heavily relying on the availability of new engine technology, so Y1 or Y3 or whatever A3XX will only be launched once the engine makers come up with something new!

Good night to all! Another interesting week to come and maybe without Monsieur Streiff...
 
manni
Posts: 4049
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:27 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 28):
But Airbus needs to sell 40-50 per year just to match their planned production rate and to hope to have a chance for program profitability. Unless this starts happening soon, it will represent another crisis for the A380.

The self appointed 'Airbus acountants' of Airliners.net have indeed calculated that number. Looks like you've been fooled.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 28):
What year to you think sales will start picking up?

For an aircraft that costs US$300 million and stil has to make her first commercial flight sales haven't been bad. Traditionally sales slowdown before the first commercial flight. Unfortunately, due to the delays, this period might be a bit longer than average. Once the A380 is in service and does indeed meet expectations, it might even exceed them, airlines will cough up the money and fight over the earliest available delivery slots.

Quoting 474218 (Reply 35):
Airbus has announced when they get to full production in 2010 they will produce 45 A380's a year. If they only sell 35 in two years they are in real trouble.

Airbus will have the capacity to produce up to 4 aircraft a month. It doesn't have to produce all these aircraft, in order to make profit. 48 aircraft that's what they eventually can produce if the demand is there.

Quoting 474218 (Reply 35):
How aircraft a year do they need to deliver to make a profit?

Wouldn't that depend on the amount of years they will produce A380s? If the A380 will be produced over 25 years, 15 a year might be sufficent. 20 a year would be stretching it.
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keesje
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:35 am

Quoting Glom (Thread starter):
How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Boeing's forecast for 2006 is 395 aircraft, Airbus 430.

Thnx
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
elvis777
Posts: 346
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 9:23 am

RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:45 am

Keesje,

From your last post I gather that you think that eads is NOT behind and indeed it is ahead of boeing?

Ok., maybe you are right. Although I do remember the previous CEO saying that they were behind. Maybe he was nuts. So the plan8 (Sorry forgot the name) is just for grins then. We can also expect a lauch of the 350 rather soon right?

Peace

Elvis777
Leper,Unevolved, Misplaced and Unrepentant SportsFanatic and a ZOMBIE as well
 
kaitak744
Posts: 2086
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:32 pm

RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:51 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 45):
Boeing's forecast for 2006 is 395 aircraft, Airbus 430.

Thnx

What does that have to do with ANYTHING? As many people here have noted, aircraft projections are never correct.

The fact is, this year and last year, Boeing has sold more 200-300 seat aircraft than Airbus has, and Boeing has sold more 300-400 seat aircraft than Airbus has. Airbus is gradually making its customers and investors question whether it can live up to its claims: One after the other- A340-600 too heavy, A380 wiring problems, A350 not new enough.....

Meanwhile, Boeing actually [b]exceeded[b/] its performance specifications for the 777-300ER and 777-200LR and gained some good customer respect at the same time. Likely Airbus customers like Korean Air, Air Canada, Qantas, and Northwest have ordered the 787.

You tell me now who is ahead.

I have no doubts Airbus is a great company. I personally prefer the A320 to the 737, and I think the A380 will do great once in service. However, if you make decent aircraft when all the customers have already ordered Boeing, what is the point?
 
EMBQA
Posts: 7797
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RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:20 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 26):
The information I provided is correct and does not match the information you provided.

Go on to the Airbus web site. Look for Orders and Deliverys... look for Historical Orders and Deliverys. You'll need Excle to view it.

Orders for the A380...

FY2006-ZERO (YTD)
FY2005- 10
FY2004- 20
FY2003- 34
FY2002- 10

Manni.. less then steller number. Not having the actual date of sales, I'll stand by what I said before.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
manni
Posts: 4049
Joined: Thu Nov 08, 2001 1:48 am

RE: How Far Behind Is Airbus?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 2:40 pm

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 48):
I'll stand by what I said before.

Really??? The numbers you provided in reply 48 do not match what you said in reply 4. They also do not match with the actual orders placed last year. Kingfisher 5 + China Southern 5 + UPS 10.

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 4):
Well.... over 2-3/4 years they have only sold 30 A380's...
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