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N328KF
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Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Mon Oct 09, 2006 3:14 pm

Quote:
BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - Airbus is likely to take a 51 pct stake in an aircraft assembly plant in Tianjin, China, the aircraft maker's first assembly facility outside Europe, the Securities News reported.

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/afx/2006/10/09/afx3075294.html
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
baroque
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Mon Oct 09, 2006 4:15 pm

Not the action of a group that is about to sink without trace?
 
PEK18R36L
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:23 pm

Even if this is true (there is a lot of hedging language in this report, and please consider that The Securities News ain't the Wall Street Journal), it is mind-bogglingly optimistic.

Disregard anything you hear about this until you hear it from the Airbus boardroom. The Chinese media operates by its own set of rules and should not be counted on to deliver a factual story.

David
In China, everything is possible - but nothing is easy.
 
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keesje
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:40 pm

So they want to keep control..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
PEK18R36L
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Mon Oct 09, 2006 7:50 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
So they want to keep control..

The Chinese? Absolutely. This factory is their ticket to the big time, their Airliner University. If this goes forward, Airbus will have the honor of training their next competitor at their own expense.
In China, everything is possible - but nothing is easy.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plan

Mon Oct 09, 2006 8:50 pm

IIRC, the last statement from Airbus was that they hadn't decided on the plant in China. The Forbes article seems to indicate that Airbus will go ahead with the China production after all. Has anyone seen an announcement in the press from Airbus confirming this?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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breiz
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:33 pm

Quoting PEK18R36L (Reply 2):
Disregard anything you hear about this until you hear it from the Airbus boardroom.

Actually, Airbus has already issued a press release on the selection of the site:
http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...s_items/06_06_08_a320_tianjin.html
The modalities are still to be ironed out.
 
NAV20
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:39 pm

Quoting Breiz (Reply 6):
Actually, Airbus has already issued a press release on the selection of the site:

That was issued back in June, Breiz.

Can't believe that, in the more recent circumstances, spending a billion or two on transferring a big swag of A320 production to China would be greeted by applause from the trade unions involved.

Whether in Toulouse, or Hamburg, or wherever..........
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Lumberton
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plan

Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:43 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 7):
That was issued back in June, Breiz.

Yes, afterwards there were reports in the press saying that EADS had not yet decided. Of course, if they don't build the thing in China, there will be some seriously disappointed (and pi$$ed) Chinese government officals.
Edited to include link. This appeared on 09-25-2006.
http://euronews.net/create_html.php?...ge=detail_eco&article=381620&lng=1

Quote:
Airbus has reportedly delayed a decision on whether to go ahead with plans to build its narrow-body A-320 airliners at a plant in China. The Financial Times Deutschland says Airbus won't make an announcement by the end of September as previously promised.

So has Airbus reconsidered and decided?

[Edited 2006-10-09 14:53:52]
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
B2443
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:24 am

Quoting PEK18R36L (Reply 4):
The Chinese? Absolutely. This factory is their ticket to the big time, their Airliner University. If this goes forward, Airbus will have the honor of training their next competitor at their own expense.

Well, I believe Airbus has done the "pros and cons" analysis much deeper than most of out a.netters here. "Techology" transfer (voluntary or involuntary) may not be as simple as people tend to believe.

1) the Chinese introduced the first color TV assembly line in Beijing in the early 1980's with Matsushita's (aka panasonic) 'technology'. 25 years have gone by, do you see Matsushita's global position being weakened by the Chinese TV's? No.
2) the Chinese introduced the first auto assembly line in Shanghai in the mid-late 80s with VW's technology, 20 years have gone by, do you see any native Chinese auto manufacture becoming a threatenign factor at the global level? No.

Putting things together is one thing, design/innovation is entirely different. I have not seen the Chinese being dramatically innovative on less complicated products like TVs and cars, let alone aircraft. Imitating LV bags is not equivalent to imatating Airbus aircraft.
 
art
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Tue Oct 10, 2006 6:39 pm

From the article:

"Airbus said earlier this year that first deliveries from the plant are due in 2008, and by 2011 the plant will have the capacity to assemble four aircraft per month."

Manufacturing 4 aircraft per month is hardly going to make much of a dent in the A320's order backlog, it seems to me. Is the main idea to ingratiate oneself with China in order to secure extra sales from the country? Or does this move herald the migration of production from high cost areas to low cost areas?
 
Lumberton
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Tue Oct 10, 2006 6:54 pm

Quoting Art (Reply 10):
From the article:

You mean the Airbus press release in Jun 06?

Quoting Art (Reply 10):
Is the main idea to ingratiate oneself with China in order to secure extra sales from the country? Or does this move herald the migration of production from high cost areas to low cost areas?

IMO, that's the million euro question. Given Gallois' comments in the press about the high euro vs the dollar, one wonders....
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
PEK18R36L
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:01 pm

Quoting B2443 (Reply 9):
Well, I believe Airbus has done the "pros and cons" analysis much deeper than most of out a.netters here.

One would hope so, and I hope we get a chance to see some of that analysis. From an outsider's point of view, the logic of opening an A320 line out here seems to be well short of a "no-brainer."

Quoting B2443 (Reply 9):
1) the Chinese introduced the first color TV assembly line in Beijing in the early 1980's with Matsushita's (aka panasonic) 'technology'. 25 years have gone by, do you see Matsushita's global position being weakened by the Chinese TV's? No.

No, but I see their China market position being weakened by companies like Haier, Konka, Changhong, Peony, and a half-dozen other brands. Globally, RCA, Thompson, and a dozen other brands in the industry have been squashed between the Japanese at the high-end and the Chinese at the low end. I suspect the Japanese will always own the high end, but they will watch the low- and mid-range get eaten away as Chinese brands venture overseas.

Quoting B2443 (Reply 9):
the Chinese introduced the first auto assembly line in Shanghai in the mid-late 80s with VW's technology, 20 years have gone by, do you see any native Chinese auto manufacture becoming a threatenign factor at the global level? No.

Ten years ago VW owned 58% of the market for passenger cars in China. Today, they've got a fraction of that. In 2005, for the first time, China exported more cars than it imported.

In both of those cases, it is only a matter of time. And in neither of those sectors was developing a national champion manufacturer a national priority in the way it is in civil aviation.

Looking at recent civil aviation history, nobody would argue that it will be a long time before the Chinese can become a credible threat in the large airliner business. Airbus took three decades to go from a twinkle in the eyes of Eurocrats to become a full-spectrum threat to Boeing, and that was with the combined experience and expertise of Aerospatiale, MBB, VFW-Fokker, CASA, and Hawker-Siddeley. Embraer took as long, and Bombardier even longer, and along the way we've lost BAe, Hawker-Siddely, Convair, Dassault-Breguet, Dornier, Fokker, Lockheed, McDonnell-Douglas, and Vickers.

It may be decades before China can design, build, fly, and industrialize its own airliner, but I can assure you that if either Airbus, Boeing, or both set up assembly lines here, they will hasten the day when they will find a Chinese competitor (or a regional consortium with the Chinese as a major partner, a la Airbus) taking up market share in ultra-low-cost markets, first in China (where the government will mandate purchases), then Africa, LatAm, and South Asia.

Quoting B2443 (Reply 9):
Putting things together is one thing, design/innovation is entirely different.

 checkmark  Especially in a country where, until recently, there has been precious little distinction between "innovation" and "imitation."

Quoting B2443 (Reply 9):
I have not seen the Chinese being dramatically innovative on less complicated products like TVs and cars, let alone aircraft. Imitating LV bags is not equivalent to imatating Airbus aircraft.

We were saying similar things about the Japanese 40 years ago. China is following the Japanese model - start with imitation, then go to incremental innovation, then go larger.

Foreign firms are training young Chinese engineers how to think creatively. Three decades from now, these kids will be the major project leaders in every major Chinese industry. It will start with small things - a DVD player packaged with a TV in a neon-colored casing (Konka), a mobile phone that scans your business cards and files the information in your address book (Motorola, but all Chinese engineers). And it will grow from there.

I've seen Chinese products go from "dreck" to "I'd buy that" in 20 years. Imagine where they will be two decades from now. Because that is the time frame the Chinese are thinking in. Even if Airbus and a.net aren't.

David
In China, everything is possible - but nothing is easy.
 
art
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RE: Xinhua: Airbus To Take 51% Stake In China Plant

Tue Oct 10, 2006 9:05 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 11):
Quoting Art (Reply 10):
From the article:

You mean the Airbus press release in Jun 06?

Sorry about the confusion. I was referring to the Forbes article link given by the poster.

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