leelaw
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Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 4:04 pm

Clark: Emirates remains committed to A380

...EK now gets it first A380 in August 2008, when it should have been receiving its 18th. Clark said the airline is looking at additional capacity options focused around the 777-300ER. It is delighted with that aircraft, which is 3% better than guarantee on its specific fuel consumption and has shown no signs of performance degradation after six months, which is "outstanding," he said.

Emirates also is looking at the 747-8 Intercontinental (ATWOnline, Oct. 10), not as an A380 replacement but to fit between the 777-300ER and A380, Clark noted. And he suggested that EK is about six months away from ordering either the 787 or A350 XWB.


http://atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=6749

[Edited 2006-10-13 09:11:17]

[Edited 2006-10-13 09:30:29]
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Poitin
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 4:33 pm

Sort of a mixed message in that article, isn't there?

    EK now gets it first A380 in August 2008, when it should have been receiving its 18th. Clark said the airline is looking at additional capacity options focused around the 777-300ER. It is delighted with that aircraft, which is 3% better than guarantee on its specific fuel consumption and has shown no signs of performance degradation after six months, which is "outstanding," he said.
 Big grin
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antares
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 4:53 pm

This confirms the information I posted from sources who heard Clark speak in the thread on airlines rallying around Airbus. (As if..I might add, the better metaphor would like tow trucks around a truck smash...).

Emirates has no intention of cancelling any A-380s. I was also told Clark indicated they had 'almost' no intention of getting passenger 748s, because it knows what the Airbus jet can do, and is bloody futious about what it hasn't done, but is unlikely to wait until 2010 to get a jet that doesn't set out to do what an A380 can do, ever, which includes 1000 passenger versions.

If anything else happens to the A-380 no doubt something different might follow.

Perhaps involving whomever is running Airbus on the day, and lots of honey and ants in a quiet corner of an Arabian desert.

The version relayed to me was that Clark said Emirates had given Boeing six months to come up with a 787 that was worth ordering. My take on that is, 'we like your nice jet, just make it fly another 1000 miles with an extra 80 passengers'. What could be more reasonable?

I like the notion of customers playing hard ball. Stuff this A and B nonsense, just give me the jets I want, AND WHEN I WANT THEM and good things will happen to you.

Antares
 
baroque
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 4:57 pm

The only thing that seems to be missing (so far) is the order for some A330s compared with other announcements related to the delays.  angel 
 
Oykie
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 7:10 pm

Will Emirates grow at a slower rate because of this delay, and can they do anything to grow at the targeted rate while waiting for the A380?

I read in AW&ST that the A380 is a really cool plane. A pilots plane according to the journalist and the performance according to Airbus is better than their guaranties. So Emirates would be foolish not to get the A380. But more than 40? That will be interesting to see where they will be deployed. Anyway the benefit with the Airbus being delayed is that 60 airports will be able to handle the airplane and the 747-8 does not fit into the same box as the current 744 so less airport will be able to get the 747-8 than the 744.

Could there be room for both the 747-8 and the A380 in the same fleet? Time will tell.
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 9:21 pm

Mr Clark has spoken again,

Emirates' A380 ``order is intact,'' Clark said. ``We've had to go to the lessors'' because of the delay and ``will probably acquire five or seven more 777-300ERs in the next few days for delivery in the second half of 2008, he said. The Boeing planes will be on 10 to 12 year leases.''

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=c...=conews&tkr=BA:US&sid=a1MNQELISi2I

Regards, PanAm_DC10
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2wingtips
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 9:22 pm

Tim Clark has reaffirmed that EK's entire A380 order will remain in intact. He has also indicated that EK will lease 5-7 more 773ERs for delivery in the 2nd half of 2008 on 10-12 year leases to help with interim uplift.
Source: Bloomberg.
Would seem to indicate the 346 has no chance at EK.
 
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 9:40 pm

Quoting Antares (Reply 2):
The version relayed to me was that Clark said Emirates had given Boeing six months to come up with a 787 that was worth ordering. My take on that is, 'we like your nice jet, just make it fly another 1000 miles with an extra 80 passengers'. What could be more reasonable?

Well it is not a secret what Mr. Clark is currently thinking since he has been telling it to both A and B... Strange it hasn't come out yet.

Emirates has said to sales people in TLS it has come to the conclusion the A350XWB is pretty much what they'd need from a capacity/range point of view, which is quite logic since it is a true yet much more efficient 777 successor designed completely to their specifications, but they'd like to see what Boeing has in minds with their 787 before they take a decision in the first half of 2007....

So far, Emirates sees the 787 evolving to a 767 successor, thus not really meeting their needs, however the proposed 787-10 would have the required capacity, yet as currently shopped around by Boeing, it seriously lacks range to be selected....

Boeing has indeed been given the 'urgent order' to squeeze out all that is left in their 787 and launch it as the 787-10ER, something the brand new design is far from optimized or in fact already up for, but I reckon they are trying to do just that, since is their only option if they don't want to loose this order...

[Edited 2006-10-13 14:44:09]
 
2wingtips
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 9:47 pm

Quoting Antares (Reply 2):
I was also told Clark indicated they had 'almost' no intention of getting passenger 748s, because it knows what the Airbus jet can do, and is bloody futious about what it hasn't done, but is unlikely to wait until 2010 to get a jet that doesn't set out to do what an A380 can do, ever, which includes 1000 passenger versions.

I was told quite the opposite by somebody who had spoken directly to Tim Clark about it. They are likely to still order the 748I and EK have said the 748I has been under consideration for some time now, irrespective of the 380 delays and they are looking at the cpapcity gap b/w the 773ER and the A380.

Quoting Antares (Reply 2):
The version relayed to me was that Clark said Emirates had given Boeing six months to come up with a 787 that was worth ordering. My take on that is, 'we like your nice jet, just make it fly another 1000 miles with an extra 80 passengers'. What could be more reasonable?

Not what I heard from the same source. No order is likely for at least 6 monyths because EK have not received any direct proposal about the 350XYZ from Airbus. Airbus have 6 months to get a firm proposal to EK, or this order will go to Boeing is my take on it. I still fancy EK will split a 787/350 order and a commitment for 100 planes in this category makes the split that much more viable. It may be a sensible strategy as well, as EK will need both Airbus/Boeing to pursue their aggressive growth startegy.
 
2wingtips
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 9:54 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 7):
Emirates has said to sales people in TLS it has come to the conclusion the A350XWB is pretty much what they'd need from a capacity/range point of view, which is quite logic since it is a true yet much more efficient 777 successor designed completely to their specifications, but they'd like to see what Boeing has in minds with their 787 before they take a decision in the first half of 2007....

EK has seen nothing formal from Airbus on the 350XYZ. Ask Tim Clark. Let's see how the 350XYZ firms, as I've already heard whispers that the promised 8,500nm range won't be preserved throughout all models.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 7):
Boeing has indeed been given the 'urgent order' to squeeze out all that is left in their 787 and launch it as the 787-10ER, something the brand new design is far from optimized or in fact already up for, but I reckon they are trying to do just that, since is their only option if they don't want to loose this order...

Boeing is certainly working on the 787-10 but my understanding is it isn't as rushed as you suggest.
Put yourself in EK's shoes. Would you order 100 350XYZs from Airbus, given the going's on of the last few months, or would a more sensible strategy be to split the order, or go all Boeing? Logic tells me Airbus won't get all of this order.
 
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:02 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 10):
Logic tells me Airbus won't get all of this order.

I agree. I still do think that the 787 will be the beneficiary of hte A380 delays because there is a reduced confidence in Airbus to delivery on its promises and the uncertainty of the effects of the current crises on the A350, even if Airbus goes ahead and launches the plane.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
2wingtips
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:05 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 7):
Emirates has said to sales people in TLS it has come to the conclusion the A350XWB is pretty much what they'd need from a capacity/range point of view, which is quite logic since it is a true yet much more efficient 777 successor designed completely to their specifications, but they'd like to see what Boeing has in minds with their 787 before they take a decision in the first half of 2007....

EK love their 773ERs. This was published in ATWonline today but has been known for a while. With 3% better performance than guaranteed and getting 5-7 more leased for 10-12 years from the 2nd half of 2008, I wonder how enthusiastic EK really is on the "777-killer" 350XYZ? They'll have a truckload of 773ERs when the 350XYZ is due for EIS(when is that again?) and they'll still all be relatively new and Boeing probably will have Y3 as a firm proposal. Additionally, I believe the chances are good that EK will acquire 10+ 748Is.
 
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:05 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 10):

Boeing is certainly working on the 787-10 but my understanding is it isn't as rushed as you suggest.
Put yourself in EK's shoes. Would you order 100 350XYZs from Airbus, given the going's on of the last few months, or would a more sensible strategy be to split the order, or go all Boeing? Logic tells me Airbus won't get all of this order.

I would tend to agree , however it would also depend on various other factors that may lead boeing to present a particular 787-10 that may or may not be of Emirates's liking !
 
norcal
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:06 pm

Even without Clark saying it, I think the actions of the airlines have pretty much proved that Airbus is meeting its performance guarantees on the A380. If they weren't then there would have been cancellations. In the mean time the airlines will probably alternate between praising the A380 and b*tching and moaning about it so that they can get the most money from Airbus they can. In any case this doesn't bode well for the 748I. However, the 748F will still probably sell like crazy and keep the 747 chugging along for years.

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):
And he suggested that EK is about six months away from ordering either the 787 or A350 XWB.

This will be interesting, will Boeing be able to squeeze out the extra 1,000 miles from the -10? This is the multi-billion dollar question. A lot of it probably depends on engines

It will be interesting to see the final launch of the A350XWB and to see the final performance promises of it. Airbus has a lot on its plate right now, but by Clark's comments it doesn't sound as bad as the sensationalist media is making it out to be.


Prediction in the short term (if Boeing is able to get the 787-10 to specs): EK splits the order between Boeing and Airbus, 787-10s and maybe some A359s to replace 777-200s and then A350-1000s to expand on the 773ER fleet or maybe replace some. (though the 773s should still be pretty young by the time the A350-100 comes out) 748I, big time wild card 20% chance of being ordered in best case.

If Boeing can't get the 787-10 to EK specs, then this order will go all to Airbus.


Prediction in the long term: EK along with many of the other gulf carriers experiences serious growing pains from dumping 45 A380s, 100 787s/A350s, 40 777-300ERs, etc. etc. on the market. Result: Boeing and Airbus don't deliver all these planes, which hopefully doesn't affect either.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:08 pm

As the 773ER seems to be "everything they wanted and more", so to speak, adding more (through leasing and additional purchases) probably makes more sense to them then adding the 747-8I. A 10-12 year lease would put the return date on the 773ERs right about when one can expect the A3510 to EIS.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 7):
So far, Emirates sees the 787 evolving to a 767 successor, thus not really meeting their needs...

The 787-9 would be a perfect replacement for their 29 A332s. The A358 would be a significant upgauge (~15%) in size.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 7):
Boeing has indeed been given the 'urgent order' to squeeze out all that is left in their 787 and launch it as the 787-10ER, something the brand new design is far from optimized or in fact already up for, but I reckon they are trying to do just that, since is their only option if they don't want to loose this order...

Zvezda has the hard numbers, but the 787-10 has some 20,000lbs MTOW growth available to it over the 787-9 with no structural changes whatsoever. With minor undercarriage changes, she could add I believe another 40,000lbs MTOW. And her wings are good for even more (600,000+).

So to say the 787 is "not optimized" for growth beyond the 787-9 is a bit unjust...  Smile
 
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:25 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 7):
Emirates has said to sales people in TLS it has come to the conclusion the A350XWB is pretty much what they'd need from a capacity/range point of view, which is quite logic since it is a true yet much more efficient 777 successor designed completely to their specifications, but they'd like to see what Boeing has in minds with their 787 before they take a decision in the first half of 2007....



Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 8):
Not what I heard from the same source. No order is likely for at least 6 monyths because EK have not received any direct proposal about the 350XYZ from Airbus.

That is quite interesting...it seemed as if they are/were very committed to the 787-10....It was stated that as of July they had no A350XBW orders..but even in the middle of October? Wow..that is a bit hard to believe!!

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 12):
EK love their 773ERs. This was published in ATWonline today but has been known for a while. With 3% better performance than guaranteed and getting 5-7 more leased for 10-12 years from the 2nd half of 2008, I wonder how enthusiastic EK really is on the "777-killer" 350XYZ?

The A350XWB will not be able to put 10-abreast like the 773ER does for EK..and this negates a lot of the CASM advantages for the A350XWB (and 787)...
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Lumberton
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:27 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 6):
Would seem to indicate the 346 has no chance at EK.

Well, if capacity concerns are the over-riding consideration, why not take delivery of some of the A346's? If Airbus was willing to guarantee resale market value for IB, they would surely do it for their largest customer?

[Edited 2006-10-13 15:28:58]
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sabenapilot
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 10:45 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 10):
EK has seen nothing formal from Airbus on the 350XYZ. Ask Tim Clark.
EK has seen nothing formal on the 787-10 either.
Currently EK is window shopping only, looking at the specifications of both planes and whether you like it or not, EK has seen the proposals for the A350XWB and is known to have noticed they do coincide with their own needs, something which the 787-10 as currently proposed by Boeing does not, hence their request (I knew some people would fall over the wording 'urgent order') to seriously up the range in order to match the A350XWB.

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 12):
EK love their 773ERs. This was published in ATWonline today but has been known for a while. With 3% better performance than guaranteed and getting 5-7 more leased for 10-12 years from the 2nd half of 2008, I wonder how enthusiastic EK really is on the "777-killer" 350XYZ?
EK does not particularly love the 773ER, that's just what some people on A.net do. EK has a strategy to take the best planes available and since you've brought him in this discussion, ask Zvezda for an easy to understand comparison between the A350XWB and the 773ER and you'll soon see why the 773s might be quickly kissed goodbye.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
The 787-10 has some 20,000lbs MTOW growth available to it over the 787-9 with no structural changes whatsoever. With minor undercarriage changes, she could add I believe another 40,000lbs MTOW. And her wings are good for even more (600,000+).So to say the 787 is "not optimized" for growth beyond the 787-9 is a bit unjust...
Oh, but the 787 can grow beyond the -9 for sure, hence the proposed 787-10, but this stretch will eat in the range of the baseline 787! This is normal for any stretch and it was also planned this way by Boeing, as you can't really cover a market segment from roughly 220 to 350 seats with only one cross section without paying some price for it in performance, regardless how good you are. If somebody comes up with a wider plane, more optimized for the high end, you will hit a hard rock at some point while stretching it to match your opponent (look at the 773 vs the A346) and as I have said many times before, the same goes for the 787 at its low end too BTW, because you are carrying around too much dead weight. (note how the 783 is only marginally lighter than the 'old' all aluminium A300)

There now is a clear demand from a key customer for a stretch with much more range than originally planned and the only way to do so is to increase the fuel capacity of the -10. Ever considered what this extra fuel weight might mean to the above mentioned 'ample weight margins for growth', not to mention the fact volume needs to be found to stow it? The 787-10ER might prove to be impossible in a high density 9-abreast configuration like EK is looking at....

Oh, and for those 'minor undercarriage' changes: I wouldn't call a strengthened double boogie and a center main gear 'minor', especially not in view of the fact Boeing needs to look for some 'lost' space to stow the extra fuel tanks which the -10 suddenly needs...

[Edited 2006-10-13 16:01:47]
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:05 pm

An interesting confirmation article here:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061013/emirates_superjumbo.html?.v=1&printer=1

Fair Use:

Clark said Emirates, which with an order for 43 of the aircraft is the biggest customer for the superjumbo, is "angry" with the Toulouse, France-based Airbus but is sticking with the plane for now.

"I hope Airbus puts their house in order," he said. "We have invested a lot in ground facilities so we have to stick with the order for now."

Airbus earlier this month said the highly anticipated launch of the A380 would be delayed for another year.

The latest production holdups, which leave the A380 program two years behind schedule, were caused by problems with the installation of the 300 miles of wiring aboard each plane. Airbus has received 159 orders for the world's largest passenger jet from 16 customers.

Clark said Emirates may order five to seven of the 777-300s made by Boeing Co. to make up the capacity shortfall caused by the A380 delay. He said the airline hasn't discussed compensation with Airbus yet.
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Poitin
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:30 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 19):
Clark said Emirates may order five to seven of the 777-300s made by Boeing Co. to make up the capacity shortfall caused by the A380 delay. He said the airline hasn't discussed compensation with Airbus yet.

I guess he is sending the bill for the 777s to Airbus.
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Ken777
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Fri Oct 13, 2006 11:46 pm

Looks like both good and bad news for Airbus. The good news is that there will be no reductions in the 380 order at this time.

The bad news is that EK is going to add 777s even when they have that outstanding order for the 346s. I think it's also bad news that EK is waiting on the 380 compensation issue fora while - it gives EK the opportunity of demanding compensation equal to the highest Airbus paid per plane to other airlines, plus Airbus canceling the 346 order and refunding deposits.

On the 748i side I would be very surprised if EK didn't order some. It fills an empty slot between the 777s and 380s and offers a long term option, both as a pax version and the ability to shift to freighters, depending on how both the 748i and 380 perform for them.
 
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:04 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 18):
EK does not particularly love the 773ER, that's just what some people on A.net do.

Clark said the airline is looking at additional capacity options focused around the 777-300ER. It is delighted with that aircraft, which is 3% better than guarantee on its specific fuel consumption and has shown no signs of performance degradation after six months, which is "outstanding," he said

I think that the word "outstanding" is about a close to "love" as you can get when talking about a relationship between a man and his machine!
 
airfrnt
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:08 am

One of the things that needs to be remembered is that CEO's outside of Airbus also have their necks screeched on the A380. If the A380 fails, how much money has EK sunk into it.

Airbus can't have EK cancel. It would effectively kill the project. EK knows that. They are going to go after every dime they could possibly get from Airbus.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:13 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
The 787-9 would be a perfect replacement for their 29 A332s. The A358 would be a significant up-gauge (~15%) in size.

I should amend this to note that I meant to say the 787-8 is the perfect replacement for the A332.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 18):
Oh, but the 787 can grow beyond the -9 for sure, hence the proposed 787-10, but this stretch will eat in the range of the baseline 787!

With the amount of MTOW Boeing has to play with, they can load a 787-10 up with more fuel to get the needed range out of her. She has some 44 LD3s worth of underfloor cargo space (equal to a 773ER) so she could give up 12 LD3's worth of space to match a 772ER for extra fuel space. However, chances are Boeing won't need that much space. A bit longer wing would help. And doesn't one Boeing model store fuel in the rear horizontal stabilizers?

Plus, how much range does EK need? They bought the A345 because it can carry a heavy premium cabin fit-out, not because they needed the range to fly DXB-ZRH. I'm not sure EK wants to fly 350 people 8500nm since they're not demanding that of their 777-300ERs.

Quote:
If somebody comes up with a wider plane, more optimized for the high end, you will hit a hard rock at some point while stretching it to match your opponent (look at the 773 vs the A346)...

True, however CFRP gives Boeing more room to grow efficiently then using Al or Li-Al so as they scale it higher and higher, the penalties are not as severe.

Quote:
And as I have said many times before, the same goes for the 787 at its low end too BTW, because you are carrying around too much dead weight. (note how the 783 is only marginally lighter than the 'old' all aluminium A300)

It helps the 787-3 is a larger plane, too. Consider how a 787-8, which is very close in size to the A332, is some 50,000lbs lighter.

Quote:
Oh, and for those 'minor undercarriage' changes: I wouldn't call a strengthened double boogie and a center main gear 'minor', especially not in view of the fact Boeing needs to look for some 'lost' space to stow the extra fuel tanks which the -10 suddenly needs...

Well some feel a three-bogie undercarriage (ala the 777) would be sufficient. But I am sure Boeing will find a way.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:14 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 21):
On the 748i side I would be very surprised if EK didn't order some.

There was a statement in the article I had linked to above which indicated that anything but the 777-300ER was unlikely at this point. Clark said something about nothing else had the 380's capacity that was available in time so they would go the 777 route.
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baroque
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:28 am

Clark will give an interview on Aus ABC on Eastern Aus time 10 am on Sunday 15 October. Usually these interview go for 10 to 15 minutes, so we might hear something new, although most of the questions will probably be about capacity into Aus.
 
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solnabo
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:28 am

From Flytorget:

http://www.flygtorget.se/nyheter/nyhetsdetaljer.asp?KatID=1&ID=4437

"EK´s CEO: We stand by the order of A380 Super Jumbo"..

Almost same as atwonline, but this is in swedish. The might order some 748i in near future.

Micke//  bigthumbsup 
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leelaw
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:29 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 27):
Clark will give an interview on Aus ABC on Eastern Aus time 10 am on Sunday 15 October. Usually these interview go for 10 to 15 minutes, so we might hear something new, although most of the questions will probably be about capacity into Aus.

Does ABC offer webcasts?
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Ken777
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:33 am

Bit of a different story in this one:

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/fligh...-10-13-emirates-airbus-order_x.htm

"We have invested a lot in ground facilities so we have to stick with the order for now," Tim Clark said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires.

But if there were any further delivery delay, Clark warned, "there may be cancellations down the line."

While the 380 might be safe for this delay it appears that Airbus needs to avoid future delays.
 
cloudyapple
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:45 am

Not cancelling any - BBCNews.

Quoting BBCNews:

Airline Emirates has warned that it may cancel some of its order for 45 giant Airbus A380 planes if there are any further delays to the troubled project.
Emirates said it planned to "stick with the order for now", but said "cancellations" remained an option.

We are stuck - Clark.

Quoting Clark:

"We have invested a lot in ground facilities so we have to stick with the order for now," Mr Clark told Dow Jones Newswires.

"We cannot wait forever but at this point there is nothing that comes close to the A380 as far as seat capacity."


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6048050.stm

[Edited 2006-10-13 17:46:28]
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
jacobin777
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:56 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 18):
EK does not particularly love the 773ER

 rotfl  rotfl ..do you actually believe in what you type?

They ordered a monster amounts of 773ER's last year and have basically told Airbus to "keep your A346's..we don't want them"...what does that tell you?

Quoting PVG (Reply 22):
Clark said the airline is looking at additional capacity options focused around the 777-300ER. It is delighted with that aircraft, which is 3% better than guarantee on its specific fuel consumption and has shown no signs of performance degradation after six months, which is "outstanding," he said

I think that the word "outstanding" is about a close to "love" as you can get when talking about a relationship between a man and his machine!

 checkmark ....
"Up the Irons!"
 
baroque
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:56 am

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 28):



Quoting Leelaw (Reply 29):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 27):
Clark will give an interview on Aus ABC on Eastern Aus time 10 am on Sunday 15 October. Usually these interview go for 10 to 15 minutes, so we might hear something new, although most of the questions will probably be about capacity into Aus.

Does ABC offer webcasts?

It will be on

http://abc.net.au/insidebusiness/

but after the event. The only trouble is I am not sure how long after it. All of last Sundays program is there, with the main interview as a transcript too. I don't know when it gets put up on the site. I am sure they have already done the interview with Clark and it is not there yet. So it could go up either early Sunday, or they might wait until Monday. They do tell you at the end of the program, but as I have got it on my DVD recorder, I don't listen - sorry!! I will know the next time.

The current update states it is from Sun 8 Oct, so maybe it will all go up on Sunday morning. Most of the items have both video and transcript.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:25 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 32):
Sabenapilot ..do you actually believe in what you type?

Sure, why wouldn't I? I don't see the point you're making?

Emirates have a preference for the 777 and they are extremely happy with it... does that mean they will NEVER go shopping elsewhere?

Maybe I am naive, but 'to love' means one likes something so much, that as long as it is around, one will not take anything else, even if much better...

Now, I wouldn't call Emirates a passionate lover of anything... if they can get a better plane elsewhere, they certainly won't let their 'love' hold them back.

Anybody dares to say he is convinced EK will not replace their 777s with something much better before they've reached the end of their useful life???
Cos that would be love....

Otherwise, I don't see what is so way off in:

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 18):
EK has a strategy to take the best planes available and since you've brought him in this discussion, ask Zvezda for an easy to understand comparison between the A350XWB and the 773ER and you'll soon see why the 773s might be quickly kissed goodbye.


[Edited 2006-10-13 18:29:13]
 
jacobin777
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:33 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 34):
Emirates have a preference for the 777 and they are extremely happy with it... does that mean they will NEVER go shopping elsewhere?

That's not what I'm talking about.... Wink

See below...

Quoting PVG (Reply 22):

I think that the word "outstanding" is about a close to "love" as you can get when talking about a relationship between a man and his machine!

 checkmark .....
"Up the Irons!"
 
phollingsworth
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:46 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 30):
"We have invested a lot in ground facilities so we have to stick with the order for now," Tim Clark said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires.

Ouch, the "sunk cost" falicy. I know the EK "system" is not and will never be Maxwellian in nature, but the idea that once money is spent you are obligated to spend more money and follow a path is dangerous.

I am pretty sure that the real reasoning is more like, "given how much is spent and the projected returns sticking with the current plan has a higher projeced return when compared to abandoning the plan." Of course all of the money that EK has spent on facilities would not go to waste id the A380 was abandoned.
 
sabenapilot
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:49 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 35):
See below...

That's not what I'm talking about....

Well, then I wonder what you ARE talking about and why you react to my post, since it IS what I was talking about right from the first moment....

It sounds like you (and quite some others) just had to react as soon as you saw the first few words of my reply because it dared to question the long term commitment of an airline to the 777, regardless of how satisfied they are with it.
 
Poitin
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 1:54 am

Quoting Phollingsworth (Reply 36):
Quoting Ken777 (Reply 30):
"We have invested a lot in ground facilities so we have to stick with the order for now," Tim Clark said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires.

Ouch, the "sunk cost" falicy. I know the EK "system" is not and will never be Maxwellian in nature, but the idea that once money is spent you are obligated to spend more money and follow a path is dangerous.

I am pretty sure that the real reasoning is more like, "given how much is spent and the projected returns sticking with the current plan has a higher projeced return when compared to abandoning the plan." Of course all of the money that EK has spent on facilities would not go to waste id the A380 was abandoned.

Somehow, I suspect Tim knows all that, but even as a CEO he has to take orders. I think the operative word is "Face." A poor reason for doing things, but common nevertheless.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
dw747400
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:03 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 34):
Maybe I am naive, but 'to love' means one likes something so much, that as long as it is around, one will not take anything else, even if much better...

Generally, at least in the US, when one says they love an object, be it an appliance or an aircraft, it isn't said with the same commitment associated with loving another human being. Perhaps you typically use the term differently?

Certainly EK loves their 773ERs (for now at least) if you look at the term the way most in the US do when discussing inatimate objects: they really like it and are happy to have.
CFI--Certfied Freakin Idiot
 
jacobin777
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:06 am

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 36):
Well, then I wonder what you ARE talking about and why you react to my post, since it IS what I was talking about right from the first moment....



Quoting Dw747400 (Reply 38):
Generally, at least in the US, when one says they love an object, be it an appliance or an aircraft, it isn't said with the same commitment associated with loving another human being. Perhaps you typically use the term differently?

Certainly EK loves their 773ERs (for now at least) if you look at the term the way most in the US do when discussing inatimate objects: they really like it and are happy to have.

Exactly! That is what I was talking about....
"Up the Irons!"
 
CHIFLYGUY
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 5:17 am

All I can say is, the 777 family is the best thing in the air right now. Truly an incredible aircraft. With at least 5-6 years before the first A350X rolls off the line - if it ever does - there are still many, many more of these beauties to roll off the assembly line. And Boeing will no doubt continue to raise the bar with refinements over time.
 
leelaw
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 8:37 am

Virgin presses Airbus over A380, while Emirates sticks with its big order:

PARIS (Associated Press) – Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd. voiced more dissatisfaction today with major delays to the Airbus A380, but the plane's biggest customer, Emirates, said it had no current plans to cancel any of its 45 "superjumbos" on order.

Virgin Atlantic, which has warned that A380 cancelations are among the options it is reviewing, said it had given Airbus one week to respond to "new proposals," likely to include more compensation and earlier deliveries than the troubled European aircraft maker had offered.

Virgin Atlantic spokesman Paul Charles declined to give details of the proposals, approved by a meeting of the airline's board on Thursday.

"We are talking with Airbus extensively," Charles said. "It is an important decision as to what we do."

Virgin Atlantic says Airbus told it to expect the first of its six A380s by early 2011 — more than a year behind the original schedule. The airline is jointly owned by Richard Branson's Virgin Group Ltd. and Singapore Airlines Ltd...


http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...ospace/2003302977_webairbus13.html
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
trojanAE
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 9:00 am

Quoting Antares (Reply 2):
The version relayed to me was that Clark said Emirates had given Boeing six months to come up with a 787 that was worth ordering. My take on that is, 'we like your nice jet, just make it fly another 1000 miles with an extra 80 passengers'. What could be more reasonable?

I very much doubt that Boeing will jump to carry out Emirates' desires like a young puppy that's eager to please. The success of the 787 program, or of Boeing as a company in general, does not hang by a feeble strink in the mighty control of Clark. Boeing is trying to make the 787 a strong a contender as they can and of course they are trying to make it with longer range and more capacity but not because Emirates says so. Yesterday I had the tremendous pleasure of meeting Greg Southern, one of the top guys of the 787 program. He explained to me that currently they are not too concerned about the A350, as it is a mythical phantom airplane at the moment, and it appears that Airbus is having enough trouble as it is with the A380. He also pointed out that they are not planning to take the 787 into 773 capacity ranges. He told me, and I quote "We are only going into the low end of the 7[777], there is no reason to cannibalize a perfectly good airplane."
"My soul is in the sky." -William Shakespeare
 
airfrnt
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 12:00 pm

Quoting Phollingsworth (Reply 35):
Ouch, the "sunk cost" falicy. I know the EK "system" is not and will never be Maxwellian in nature, but the idea that once money is spent you are obligated to spend more money and follow a path is dangerous.

Except for the fact that EK really isn't on the hook for the A380 commitment escalation issues beyond some logistical costs which probably consist of less then 2-3% their total capital expenditure. In fact, EK is profiting quite well from this plane, at a time when oil prices (which feed the entire region, not just the emirates) are decreasing precipitously.

EK doesn't need those planes right now, and is quite happy to be cheaper planes. Airbus is the one suffering from sunk cost.

Quoting Phollingsworth (Reply 35):

I am pretty sure that the real reasoning is more like, "given how much is spent and the projected returns sticking with the current plan has a higher projeced return when compared to abandoning the plan." Of course all of the money that EK has spent on facilities would not go to waste id the A380 was abandoned.

EK's business model is significantly out of whack with all of the other carriers in the world, so I am not sure we can directly absscribe this to real reasoning or not. That being said, VS has more to loose since their justification ties directly to a artificially limited resource (the slots) and hence are much more affected by this at this point.
 
2wingtips
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 3:14 pm

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 17):
Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 10):
EK has seen nothing formal from Airbus on the 350XYZ. Ask Tim Clark.
EK has seen nothing formal on the 787-10 either.
Currently EK is window shopping only, looking at the specifications of both planes and whether you like it or not, EK has seen the proposals for the A350XWB and is known to have noticed they do coincide with their own needs, something which the 787-10 as currently proposed by Boeing does not, hence their request (I knew some people would fall over the wording 'urgent order') to seriously up the range in order to match the A350XWB.

Wrong. I know that EK have not seen a formal proposal for the XYZ, and they are confounded as to why SQ committed to it, when they know nothing other than the error riddled farce of a presentation Leahy delivered at Farnborough.
I have no hesitation at all in saying that I believe the whole XYZ has further iterations to go through yet, and what was presented at Farnborough won't be the way things end up. My source is someone who has interviewed Tim Clark on this exact subject.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 17):
EK does not particularly love the 773ER, that's just what some people on A.net do. EK has a strategy to take the best planes available and since you've brought him in this discussion, ask Zvezda for an easy to understand comparison between the A350XWB and the 773ER and you'll soon see why the 773s might be quickly kissed goodbye.

Well if they don't love them , they like them a lot. They are preparing to commit to 5-7 more on 10-12 year leases from 2008. I didn't bring Zvezda into the discussion at all. Nobody knows what the XYZ will end up being like, so the direct 777 comparison is interesting(and you are potentially correct), but irrelevant at this stage, until Airbus commit to firm numbers on the plane. They are a long, long way away from that now.
 
antares
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sat Oct 14, 2006 4:42 pm

Common sense tells us Emirates cannot continue to double in size every four years or so for another decade, yet the same common sense blind sided me and I think quite a few others to what was happening in the region.

However it could yet become the largest airline in the world at least by RPKs and longer distance freight even at half its current rates of growth in say another 20 years compared to its first 20 years, although the future is always deadly when viewed through a crystal ball.

I thought Clark's reported comments were pretty interesting given his track record. But I'm not given to being a follower of fads or fashion. So I don't actually care if they succeed or fail, but more about where they will take wealth creation. The airline is a tiny part of the Dubai picture. It is totally astonishing to visit the place every few years and see the amount of external investment that is being sucked into the area, the off shore canal type palm shaped residencies, and the staggering amount of expatriate travel being generated by rich Europeans who commute there at regular intervals.

Because I think we are seeing the potential emergence of an aviation hub multiple times the size of Changi the spending habits and performance criteria 'suggested' by people like Clark clearly have them hypnotized in Seattle and Toulouse.

And it could all turn turtle in a flash. That's life in the 21st century folks. But what Emirates and other Middle East carriers spend is going to pay for a lot of
what the jet makers invest in research and development in at least the medium term.

Antares
 
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Stitch
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sun Oct 15, 2006 1:13 am

Quoting Antares (Reply 44):
Common sense tells us Emirates cannot continue to double in size every four years or so for another decade, yet the same common sense blind sided me and I think quite a few others to what was happening in the region.

Last I read, they were growing at an average rate of 20% per year and expected to continue to do so. At that growth rate, a doubling every four years strike me as prudent.
 
airfrnt
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sun Oct 15, 2006 1:43 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 45):
Last I read, they were growing at an average rate of 20% per year and expected to continue to do so. At that growth rate, a doubling every four years strike me as prudent.

Another way to look at EK is to think "JetBlue with A380s". Take a look at JetBlue and their current slowdown. No imagine that with EK and idle A380s rather then A320s...

Is that prudent?
 
baroque
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Sun Oct 15, 2006 11:06 pm

Link to the Clarke interview transcript.
http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2006/s1765168.htm

Mostly about capacity, but the following was about the A380.

"ALAN KOHLER: And you mentioned the A 380. How much of a rethink is that causing for your strategy generally? How much of a problem is it causing you?

TIM CLARKE: It's a deep shock to have been told we were going to get the aeroplanes this month, we are now going to get them by August '08, by which time we would have had 18 of them flying, some of which would have been on the Australian market. In fact, the first aeroplane was likely to come down here. Having to deal with that, well, you know, we're used to problems. We trade throughout the world, there are problems all over the show, so we will have to manage this. So we will acquire more aircraft. We're in the process of doing that as I speak. We will try and fill that capacity gap, the absence the aircraft has caused. When they come, they'll be a marvellous machine, one of the greatest things in the civil aviation history, so...

ALAN KOHLER: They'll presumably be well-made, because they will all be made by hand by then, I presume?

TIM CLARKE: Well I'm hearing handmade airplanes but certainly they have to sort themselves out in Toulouse and Europe to get this aeroplane back to where it should be. I'm sure they will do that.

ALAN KOHLER: Will the delays on the A 380 in any way limit your ability to provide extra capacity into Australia, if you actually are successful?

TIM CLARKE: It slows it a little bit. We have to rethink. I have to admit that you know, with the 380's coming along and coming into Australia, we will now try and increase the size of the existing operation through the 777 programs, the 34500, which is only a 258-seater, we'll probably put 777s which can give us another 100 seats. Beyond that, we can't do much more, short of increasing the frequencies.

ALAN KOHLER: Thanks for joining us, Tim Clarke.

TIM CLARKE: Pleasure."

Hmmm, well "greatest things" seemed a considered comment when he made it, and the delays did not seem to have him backing off.

Kohler is a quiet patient interviewer, there was no needle but the A380 was not the main topic.

Looking again at the DVD of the interview, I have a feeling that the sentence after "so..." might have been finished by Clarke and edited out. The cut to the noddy was a little odd, but who knows what the end of the sentence might have been, IF there ever was an end.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Mon Oct 16, 2006 12:55 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 46):
Another way to look at EK is to think "JetBlue with A380s". Take a look at JetBlue and their current slowdown. No imagine that with EK and idle A380s rather then A320s...Is that prudent?

Well B6 experienced really strong year-on-year growth in their early years, as well.

No doubt EK's growth will eventually slow and could even contract to the point that their huge fleet - of all types - is a liability and no longer a blessing. But for the moment, they have strong demand and need the supply to meet it.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Clark: Denies EK Will Cancel Some A380 Orders

Mon Oct 16, 2006 12:56 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 47):
TIM CLARKE: It's a deep shock to have been told we were going to get the aeroplanes this month, we are now going to get them by August '08, by which time we would have had 18 of them flying,

Hmmm...so a simple formula for compensation suggests itself: RASM-CASM x 18 x months in service?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".

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