jsquared
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Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 3:10 am

If there's one thing I've learned after reading these message boards over the last year is that everybody loves to speculate. Now I know that NW has been mentioned as a possible customer for the 748 in some threads, but I don't think anybody has really discussed it in detail.

I realize that they are in bankruptcy and will have a lot of money tied up with orders for 787-8s, CRJ-900s, and E-175s, and probably E-195s in the coming months if the rumors prove to be true. But nevertheless I must ask, how likely is it that Northwest will order the 747-8 in either the cargo or pax variant sometime in the future?

As a launch customer for the 744, they probably have some of the oldest examples of the type in the air (and even a few 742s left) which will be over 20 years old by the time the 748i is launched. Granted, this is NW and they're still flying 30+ year-old DC-9s around, but still the 744s will need replacing some day. Are the A380 and 773 out of the question? Will they hold on to their 744s until Y3 or A350? Will they convert the pax 744s to cargo and take new 748i's? Will they order 748f's?

Your thoughts and comments are appreciated!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 3:16 am

I believe the A380 is indeed out. Only four NW hub airports could (conceivably) support A380 operations - DTW, MSP, NRT and AMS.

I think the 777-300ER might just be a surprise. NW has written the 777 into their latest pilot contracts so the type could be added. I think it depends on how large DTW/MSP-NRT/AMS are in terms of traffic. As a two-class operator, the 773ER would allow them to carry a goodly number of people.

Down the road, the 787-8s can replace the A332s and the 787-9s can replace the A333s, so the A350XWB is not a "must have" for NW nor is it the only upgrade path for their A330 fleet.
 
727200er
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 5:34 am

It's been said many times, but I'll say it too. I do not see any North American Airline ordering the A380. It doesn't fit the marketing. Sadly I don't forsee any American orders for the 748i either. Having said that though, if anyone in America were going to order it NW would be the most likely. I think it's more likely that 777-300ER will join the fleet.
"they who dream by day are cognizant of many things which escape those who dream only at night" - Edgar Allen Poe
 
steph001
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 6:58 am

What advantage would NW have if they order the B747-8i instead of the B777-300ER? Are there any routes where they could use the new 747 and where the 777-300ER won't be enough?
 
af773atmsp
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 7:39 am

NW just ordered the A330s. The A330s won't be scraped for a while. I hope NW orders the 748 and A350. NW will definitely not order the A380. Although I will be sad when the 744s are gone.  Sad
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KQ772
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 7:41 am

I reckon they will be needing the new 748 to replace their older existing fleets of 744's they currently operate soon when they will be reaching retirement age.


They have never had a 777 in their fleet so the 748 would be the best bet.

How about a Northwest A380  Wink

I reckon that would look really cool Big grin

KQ772
 
FLALEFTY
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:27 am

Here's a thought - The 787 and 748 will (supposedly) have common engines. That might steer NW to the 748i, as well as the 748F.
 
jfk777
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:37 am

NW is using A332 from SFO, PDX and Seattle to Tokyo reducing the need for 744 or 748's. They use the 744 from LAX, MSP and DTW to Japan, JFK was discontinued last year. With the 787-8 they can fly farther in Asia nonstop from DTW and MSP. I just don't see the nee for a 748, a 773ER would make a good candidate. What the 787-10 look like will determine the decision too. IF they get JFK to NRT back then a 748 might be required, since United quick the route that leaves just; AA, Ana & JAL.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:39 am

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 6):
Here's a thought - The 787 and 748 will (supposedly) have common engines. That might steer NW to the 748i, as well as the 748F.

NW has signed for Rolls Royce Trent-1000 engines whereas the 748 will use a variant of the GEnx...

Quoting Steph001 (Reply 3):
What advantage would NW have if they order the B747-8i instead of the B777-300ER? Are there any routes where they could use the new 747 and where the 777-300ER won't be enough?

- The 747-8 will maintain some commonality (both mech and crew) with the 744, certainly more than the 777.
- The 747-8 seats about 20% more than the 773ER and will have lower CASM. - The 747-8 will also have lower trip cost than the 744 they have now.

NW is probably the most likely of the U.S. airlines to order the 748, but I doubt it will happen this year or next.
 
FLALEFTY
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 8:43 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 8):
NW has signed for Rolls Royce Trent-1000 engines whereas the 748 will use a variant of the GEnx...

OK, I thought the Trents were an option for the 748, too.

My bad!
 
PITrules
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:02 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
I believe the A380 is indeed out. Only four NW hub airports could (conceivably) support A380 operations - DTW, MSP, NRT and AMS.

MEM is also A-380 capable (not that NW would use them there).
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JAM747
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:36 am

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 6):
Here's a thought - The 787 and 748 will (supposedly) have common engines

Their 787s will have RR but an advantage of an airline considering a 787 and 747-8 is that the cockpits will be similar.
 
MEACEDAR
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 9:53 am

I think they can't afford anything right now. What airline buys planes while in bankruptcy. It is as if I was the poorest man in the city and got $70,000 BMW the next day. It doesn't work this way. If NWA was going to get any A/C they would probably go for the 767. If they are looking for smaller planes, maybe some 737s would work.
 
willyj
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 10:45 am

Quoting MEACEDAR (Reply 12):
If NWA was going to get any A/C they would probably go for the 767. If they are looking for smaller planes, maybe some 737s would work

Logical... Why would they want to get more of the planes they already fly (332 and 320 series) when they could start two new fleet types. Variety is the spice of life!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 10:54 am

Quoting MEACEDAR (Reply 12):
I think they can't afford anything right now. What airline buys planes while in bankruptcy.

An airline that feels additional or newer planes will allow it to return to profitability and leave bankruptcy.

NW will not add 767s because even if they could get them for cheap (and they probably can't), they don't currently operate the type so there would be numerous and significant ancillary costs.
 
Jet-lagged
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:28 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 7):
since United quick the route that leaves just; AA, Ana & JAL.

That is amazing. The two 'legacy' carriers with extensive Pacific routes and Tokyo hubs have both quit JFK-NRT.
 
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jetjack74
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 2:14 pm

Quoting JSquared (Thread starter):
As a launch customer for the 744, they probably have some of the oldest examples of the type in the air (and even a few 742s left) which will be over 20 years old by the time the 748i is launched

We do, in the 1st quarter, we'll be retiring 2 maybe 3 747F's form The NWA Cargo operation next year. N616US and 617US and possibly 618 or N628US may go as well. We're drawing down the freighter fleet next year slightly because of this while a future plan is put into place. NWA is looking to expand the Cargo division in the next 5 years to include 2, maybe 3 more facilities DTW, MEM, and possibly BNA for freight service. DTW and MSP would launch transatlantic freighter service to AMS, CDG, GLA and FRA. NWA hasn't had scheduled freighters to Europe since the tie-up with Seabord World Airlines in the 1970's. But NWA is looking to be more competitive with air freight, and we're seeing a definate market in Europe. So that spells really good news for the prospect of the 747-8F. As far as passenger 747-8's, it's too early to tell. There are some routes that will be able to support the 747, the question is, which ones. DTW-NRT always is a sell out. NWA is looking at other markets in Asia to replace the revenue loss should DTW-PVG/PEK commence over the next few years. With passenger traffic projected to triple in 10 years, a 747 to PVG/PEK could be a reality. I'm very optimistic about the future, and with mergers on the horizon, we may need a 747-8 to handle the loads brought on by consolidation.

Quoting JSquared (Thread starter):
Will they hold on to their 744s until Y3 or A350? Will they convert the pax 744s to cargo and take new 748i's? Will they order 748f's?

That could also happen, but the pilots union thinks that NWA may just go for new 747-8F's

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
NW has written the 777 into their latest pilot contracts so the type could be added

That's been in their contracts previously, so nothing really all that groundbreaking. They also had the 767 in there as well in the late 80's, early 90's as well, since the 757/767 were projected to be cross qualified ratings(if they hadn't already been)

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Down the road, the 787-8s can replace the A332s and the 787-9s can replace the A333s, so the A350XWB is not a "must have" for NW nor is it the only upgrade path for their A330 fleet.

I've said this before. The 787 being ordered by us spelled doom for the for the A330. That was the target from the very beginning. The A330-200/300 are lacking in performance in there seat class when it comes to ER operations. With the 788 having the capability to fly both east/west coast to Asia, and Europe, the A330 cannot which limits the markets it can fly. The A350 will kill off it's own cousin in the A330, but won't be ready until long after the 787 is in service. But flying two distinct fleet types in the same seating class(but one falls far short of the other), is just silly. We ordered the 787 to replace the A330, as hard as it is to believe that.

Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 4):
NW just ordered the A330s. The A330s won't be scraped for a while.

We ordered it because Airbus gave it to us for a song. The DC10's needed a replacement, but Boeing was less than enthusiastic about selling us the 777, so Airbus put a show on for us, and we went with the A330. But that was a different time, a different show. We ordered the A330 under John Dasburg, who was the CEO that flicked off Boeing in the late 80's in favour of Airbus. When Dasburg came to NWA, he bucked the trend and the notion that Boeing had an easy sale of the 737-300 to us. Dasburg instead went with the A320, which many believe was the reason Airbus became the giant overnight. 2 distinct milestones in Airbus's history were noteworthy, #1 was when Eastern Airlines bought the A300 in 1981 over the 767, and #2 was Northwest Airlines choosing the A320 over the 737-300 in 1987. Airbus Industrie became our best friend, that they shelled out money to build us a corporate office in Toulouse in 1993. We also launched the A319 here in the US as well as the A320. We almost launched the A340 here, but that fell through when we nearly went bankrupt in 1992. We decided to augment the DC10 fleet with 2nd hand 3-holers instead of the A340.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
NW will not add 767s because even if they could get them for cheap (and they probably can't), they don't currently operate the type so there would be numerous and significant ancillary costs.

The 767 is done in the civilian community. The USAF is most likely the only future customer when they (presumably)order the YE-10A JSTARs, the replacement for the E-8C.
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DAYflyer
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Fri Oct 20, 2006 11:20 pm

I think the potential is there, but the real question is how many routes would they possibly need it for? And are they planning on to increase frequencies with 787-8, or not on those same routes.
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ER757
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 12:43 am

There was an interview with NW's CEO in the August issue of Air Cargo World. He stated they were looking at several options for freighter replacement, including 744 pax conversions, the 748F and the A380F (!). He said they were leaning towards new-build 748F's. Sorry I don't have a link to the on-line version of the article.
 
cxb744
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 1:00 am

I see United ordering the 747-8 before NWA. They have a lot more current routes that will have A380's flying them by competitors. LAX-SYD is one example. Anyway, United is going to have choice in the next 5 years: Complete interior renovation in their current 747's or new airplanes.

P.S. Yes I know the prrmium cabins throughout UA's fleet are getting revamped.
What is it? It's A 747-400, but that's not important right now.
 
supa7E7
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 1:38 am

Quoting CXB744 (Reply 19):
I see United ordering the 747-8 before NWA. They have a lot more current routes that will have A380's flying them by competitors.

Yes I agree. We can foresee NW shifting its 744s to freight but not for 10 years yet.

UA, on the other hand will be doing LAX-SYD vs. QF A380. That's a primo 748i route. SFO-HKG, same. ORD-PEK, same.

As China liberalizes, UA and NW's NRT operations will fade. People will demand 1-stops between all large cities USA-Asia. UA can do this out of SFO, LAX and ORD with 747s. Can NW follow suit from MSP and DTW, yes, but only with smaller equipment.
"Who's to say spaceships aren't fine art?" - Phil Lesh
 
azjubilee
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 2:56 am

I disagree... NRT will not fade, at least for NWA. NWA has a huge customer base in Asia that connects in NRT. By eliminating the NRT hub, they effectively alienate a huge following of customers. This is also precisely why much to the dismay of many at this site, NWA uses its China authorities via the NRT hub. By only offering nonstops from the US, they can't reach al their customers, but by serving China from NRT they can meet the needs of their customers worldwide.

I can see NWA going will smaller gage equipment for the NRT overflights from the USA. Then smaller gage equipment from those overflight destinations to NRT. They'll keep the whales on the hub to hub and high density markets to NRT, like MNL. The whale becomes valuable in a slot contrained environment such as NRT.

As for the 748 I could see in the future a cargo fleet of 748s with a small subfleet of pax versions, much like we see today with the 742. The rest of the international fleet can be supported by the 787 family, if indeed they will eventually replace the 330s

AZJ
 
c680
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 3:03 am

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 16):
We ordered the 787 to replace the A330, as hard as it is to believe that.

Easy to believe. Majority of A.net folk don't believe there is a market for second hand aircraft. This is all about math. At the price NW paid for A330, it is easy for them to take the hit of the A330 sale, buy B787 and come out ahead on perfromance benefits.

Quoting CXB744 (Reply 19):
I see United ordering the 747-8 before NWA.

Me too. UA has some routes that do need something in the 400+ pax range - mainly trans-pacific. NW has similar routes, but not as many of them.
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ImperialEagle
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 5:49 am

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 16):



Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 16):
As far as passenger 747-8's

Convertible models of the 748 may come in handy. NW certainly has had lots of experience with convertibles in the past. Of course that always means a structural weight penalty for the beefed up floor, undercarriage,etc.

No matter. I hope to see some NW 748's---just seems right.
"If everything seems under control, you're just not going fast enough!"
 
nwab787techops
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 7:01 am

NWA looked at the A380 for Corgo, But the A380 has to have two decks. NWA Cargo has alot of business that the A380 wouldn't work. Are they looking to replace the cargo fleet? YES But, it's not going to be the A380.
 
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jetjack74
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 9:27 am

Quoting C680 (Reply 22):
Easy to believe.

Well, that was mainly directed at the 1 demensional thinkers

Quoting C680 (Reply 22):
Majority of A.net folk don't believe there is a market for second hand aircraft. This is all about math. At the price NW paid for A330, it is easy for them to take the hit of the A330 sale, buy B787 and come out ahead on perfromance benefits.

Right, the operating costs of the 787 will undoubted compensate for the penalties of retiring aircraft that you're still paying for. The A330's are great aircraft for the purpose they currently serve, but there is little use beyond that unless you downgrade them to operate domestic routes, and the 787 comes in amodel specifically for that, the 787-3.

Quoting ImperialEagle (Reply 23):
Convertible models of the 748 may come in handy

Well, I don't see much use for convertible 747's anymore. The task of converting them takes alot of man-hours, which in today's industy is a dagger to the heart of profitability. Boeing hasn't delivered a convertable 747 since World Airways bought 2 747-273C's in 1976 They ended up selling them off in 1979. Seaboard World Airlines ordered 5 in 1978, but were cancelled when Flying Tigers bought them out in 1980 and the airfrmae slots converted to pure 747F's. So there hasn't been much of a market for the convertible aircraft. If NWA Cargo was an ad-hoc charter cargo carrier, maybe, but with scheduled freight, I can't see them as useful as per see, a dedicated freighter.

Quoting ImperialEagle (Reply 23):
. NW certainly has had lots of experience with convertibles in the past. Of course that always means a structural weight penalty for the beefed up floor, undercarriage,etc.

And very expensive to maintain. Add to the fact that a 747QC type would need palletised seat clusters, which would probably add at least, about 20,000 pounds of gross weight to aircraft. A DC9 with seat pallets is roughly 6,000 pound heavier than a regular DC9
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flydreamliner
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 9:30 am

Quoting Steph001 (Reply 3):
What advantage would NW have if they order the B747-8i instead of the B777-300ER? Are there any routes where they could use the new 747 and where the 777-300ER won't be enough?

For most of what NW uses a 744 for, a 773ER would be a more ideal aircraft, but a lot of their intra-asian routes apparently put the 747s to good use, so perhaps NW could find that rationalization for a 748?

Quoting Jet-lagged (Reply 15):
That is amazing. The two 'legacy' carriers with extensive Pacific routes and Tokyo hubs have both quit JFK-NRT.

NW will be back when the 787s come online.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
steeler83
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 9:44 am

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 6):
Here's a thought - The 787 and 748 will (supposedly) have common engines.

Right, I mean, don't they have similar technologies? Didn't they use the same technology in the 787 to launch the 747-8 program?

Quoting PITrules (Reply 10):
MEM is also A-380 capable (not that NW would use them there).

A little off-topic, but I do believe you are right, considering FedEX ordered the A380 freighter. MEM is a large hub, if not the large hub, for FedEX, so I imagine it would make sense...

I wonder if IND would see a FedEX A380 as well... Hey, that's funny... Both are FedEX hubs, as well as a NW hub/focus city of some sorts!!! Again, sorry for straying from the topic folks!!
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
af773atmsp
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 10:41 am

Where would NW's 748s fly to? NW's 748F's would definetly be at MEM, AMS, NRT, and HKG.
It ain't no normal MD80 its a Super 80!
 
af773atmsp
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 10:47 am

Or maybe not MEM. Osaka would be another airport to see a NW 748F.
It ain't no normal MD80 its a Super 80!
 
ImperialEagle
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RE: Northwest And The 748?

Sat Oct 21, 2006 8:31 pm

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 25):
So there hasn't been much of a market for the convertible aircraft

O.K. "Jet" I get it----sheeeesh can't a guy even speculate without being shot down in flames! Tee hee hee.

Seriously though, you are right, the weight penalties with today's economics just don't work----the convertibles are no longer viable.

Nonetheless, IMO whatever NW does in the cargo sector should certainly be a success as NW has been very strong on cargo for years (while others have been asleep at the switch!) especially through the '80's and '90's.
"If everything seems under control, you're just not going fast enough!"

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