iwok
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747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 5:22 pm

I was just perusing the Airbus and Boeing websites and got to thinking about orders for each company's respective VLA. Turns out the 747 has outsold the 380 since 2000 when the 380 was launched.

Interesting turn of events no?  yes  Hard to imagine that this outcome was even thought remotely possible when the WhaleJet was launched with great fanfare.  no 

Type 747, 380
2000: 26, ?
2001: 16, ?
2002: 17, ?
2003: 4, ?
2004: 10, ?
2005: 48, ?
2006: 41, ?
Net : 162, 159

The 747 is truly a fantastic bird. Although unlikely, I hope the "three eighty" acheives such fame.

Does anyone know how to get the yearly orders by model off the Airbus website?

iwok
 
ehho
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 5:35 pm

Dude, you're comparing apples with oranges. First and foremost, A380 and the 744 aren't direct competitors. Even with the 748 the A380 isn't competing directly. Then, comparing orders for a plane that exisits in the current model since 1989, and more generally since the late 1960s with somwthing that wasn't even made at the time doesn't make much sense either. These huge technological projects have equally huge development cycles, and the real succes or failure of the A380 won't be known for years, perhaps deades.
"Get your facts first. Then you may distort them as much as you please" -- Mark Twain
 
sebolino
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 5:36 pm

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
Interesting turn of events no? Hard to imagine that this outcome was even thought remotely possible when the WhaleJet was launched with great fanfare.

I don't think it's so incredible.
The 747 is still a great plane, and we knew that all airlines were not willing to switch to the bigger A380.
 
WINGS
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 5:50 pm

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
I was just perusing the Airbus and Boeing websites and got to thinking about orders for each company's respective VLA. Turns out the 747 has outsold the 380 since 2000 when the 380 was launched.

Hi Iwok,

I'm sure that you will also realise that the B747 has been in production in that period. It would be natural to see the B747 gather more orders then the A380, after all the do have to keep the line moving.

If you permit, I would like to make a suggestion. I think that it would be appropriate to break down the orders for the A380 and B747 by Passenger/Freigter orders. By doing this it will give us an even better understanding into the market potential of both models.

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
Toulouse
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 5:54 pm

Quoting EHHO (Reply 1):
Dude, you're comparing apples with oranges. First and foremost, A380 and the 744 aren't direct competitors. Even with the 748 the A380 isn't competing directly. Then, comparing orders for a plane that exisits in the current model since 1989, and more generally since the late 1960s with somwthing that wasn't even made at the time doesn't make much sense either. These huge technological projects have equally huge development cycles, and the real succes or failure of the A380 won't be known for years, perhaps deades.

EHHO summed it all up. Nothing to add. Anyway, well done B747 and Good luck A380!
Long live Aer Lingus!
 
cobra27
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 5:59 pm

You are comparing like Airbus managers. Last year year they sold 1100 planes (I don't know how they managed to extend the selling year by a month, maybe they went to the wormhole?) and beat Boeing with 1002 planes. But around 400 of Boeing planes were widebodies, versus less than 200 for Airbus.

So what is worth more 159 A380 or 162 B747?
 
BA787
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 6:01 pm

Quoting Sebolino (Reply 2):
all airlines

Bit of an exagerration here!


The A380's main competitor will be the 748 but they both cater for different markets. A true competitor to the A380 will be the extended 748 if it ever arises
 
RichardPrice
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 6:14 pm

Yes, the 747 outsold the A380 - but only on freighter sales. If you compare like for like, passenger to passenger model sales, you have to go back to something like 1998 for 747 passenger sales to match A380 passenger sales.

Statistics are a wonderful thing, they allow you to start threads like this one.
 
fraport
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 6:28 pm

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 7):
Yes, the 747 outsold the A380 - but only on freighter sales. If you compare like for like, passenger to passenger model sales, you have to go back to something like 1998 for 747 passenger sales to match A380 passenger sales.

That may be right but from a financial point of view, are freighters less worth than pax planes? Does Boeing only make money with the pax version and give away 747Fs for free? The thread starter did not state that the 747 Pax version outsold the A380.
 
RichardPrice
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 6:44 pm

Quoting Fraport (Reply 8):

That may be right but from a financial point of view, are freighters less worth than pax planes? Does Boeing only make money with the pax version and give away 747Fs for free? The thread starter did not state that the 747 Pax version outsold the A380.

Can a freighter do the job of a passenger model? Can a passenger model do the job of a freighter?

Is a 747 freighter sale one less A380 passenger sale? Is an A380 passenger sale one less 747 freighter sale?

Come on, at least compare like for like, all these figures demonstrate is that theres a larger market for VLA freighters with a higher floor loading, but on the flip side more A380 passenger models were sold over the same period.

In essence, the figures show that the aircraft are infact dominating the markets they are each aimed for....

[Edited 2006-10-25 11:46:01]
 
zvezda
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 7:16 pm

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 5):
So what is worth more 159 A380 or 162 B747?

The average selling price for a JumboJet since 2000 has almost certainly been higher than the average selling price of a WhaleJet. All reports are that Boeing have not been making any firesale deals, while there are many, many reports that Airbus gave very steep discounts on most, if not all, of the WhaleJets.

As has previously been noted, most of the JumboJet orders were for freighters (27 passenger, 135 freighter) while most WhaleJet orders were for the passenger model (25 freighter, 134 passenger).
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 7:39 pm

IIRC, both Airbus and Boeing make more profit from freighter sales than passenger models.
 
Johnny
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 7:47 pm

Different sizes - different markets

The B777-300ER has outsold the B747-400 since its (777-300ER) first delivery as well.

And? Nobody cares as these airplanes serve different markets as well.

Johnny
 
cobra27
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 8:02 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
The average selling price for a JumboJet since 2000 has almost certainly been higher than the average selling price of a WhaleJet.

No, The A380 is worth more
 
EMBQA
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 8:21 pm

Quoting BA787 (Reply 6):
The A380's main competitor will be the 748 but they both cater for different markets.

Not true, both cater to the same market. Boeing has just said there is no need to make a super jumbo and feel the 747 will be what the airlines want. Years ago they looked at building the Super jumbo 747, but felt the sales were not there to support it. So far with the dismal A380 sales Boeing was right. Don't think just because the A380 is bigger it creats a whole new market... it's just Airbuses approch to the high density-long haul market.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
zvezda
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 8:40 pm

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 13):
No, The A380 is worth more

To whom? Just because it has a higher list price, doesn't mean it's worth more. I can offer to sell my watch more $300M, but if I have to discount it to $300 in order to get the sale, I can't claim it's worth $300M. Airlines are paying more for JumboJets than for WhaleJets. So how do you figure a WhaleJet is worth more?
 
Curmudgeon
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Wed Oct 25, 2006 9:22 pm

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 13):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
The average selling price for a JumboJet since 2000 has almost certainly been higher than the average selling price of a WhaleJet.

No, The A380 is worth more

No. Especially in the context of the existing orders as distinct from any future orders. It has been widely reported and privately confirmed that up to 40%discounts were offered for at least the first 50 frames, and that most if not all of the 159 orders had inducements attached.

The compensation rebates are probably 7-8Million per frame exclusive of any additional penalties extracted by customers once blood was in the water.

So, since 2000, the actual selling price of the A380 (ie, all sales to date) has been discounted, certainly* to less than that of a 747 sold in the same period.

*"certainly" means without having seen any actual contracts for 747's in this period, but based on what is widely known about Boeing's sales efforts recently.
Jets are for kids
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 1:50 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 15):
Airlines are paying more for JumboJets than for WhaleJets.

Based on - ?


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
zvezda
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 1:56 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 17):
Based on - ?

Based on both public and private sources. You read the industry journals. They report (in broad terms) on the sort of deals that are being done. As I wrote before, it is well known Boeing are not selling JumboJets are firesale prices. It is also widely reported that Airbus has offered some very steep discounts on most if not all the WhaleJets they've sold.
 
Shenzhen
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 2:21 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 18):
Based on both public and private sources. You read the industry journals. They report (in broad terms) on the sort of deals that are being done. As I wrote before, it is well known Boeing are not selling JumboJets are firesale prices. It is also widely reported that Airbus has offered some very steep discounts on most if not all the WhaleJets they've sold.

I think you would be a little shocked at the discounts Boeing gave to the airlines back in 2005 as they tried to sell out the line before launching the 747-8.

Cheers
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 2:36 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 3):
It would be natural to see the B747 gather more orders then the A380, after all the do have to keep the line moving.

At this stage of the program, additional A380 sales are needed to make sure it's line will continue to roll. If no additional sales are recorded in 2007, it's an indication that the A380 future is in jeopardy.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 2:39 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 18):
Based on both public and private sources. You read the industry journals. They report (in broad terms) on the sort of deals that are being done. As I wrote before, it is well known Boeing are not selling JumboJets are firesale prices. It is also widely reported that Airbus has offered some very steep discounts on most if not all the WhaleJets they've sold.

There are indications, but it's still not enough to draw a general simplistic conclusion. The lack of reports about B747 discounts does not necessarily mean airlines haven't enjoyed them. We shouldn't forget the media focus has been on the A380 for years. You always find/hear more where you dig deeper...


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
WINGS
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 2:51 am

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 20):
At this stage of the program, additional A380 sales are needed to make sure it's line will continue to roll. If no additional sales are recorded in 2007, it's an indication that the A380 future is in jeopardy.

If Airbus manages to hold all it's 159 + 9 (SQ) on order then it's line will remain filled up until 2011-2012.

If by the end 2009 Airbus does not manage to capture new orders/options then I will agree with you.

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
777DadandJr
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 4:04 am

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
Type 747, 380
2000: 26, ?
2001: 16, ?
2002: 17, ?
2003: 4, ?
2004: 10, ?
2005: 48, ?
2006: 41, ?
Net : 162, 159

A more fair way to make this comparison would be to compare the intitial 747 orders, for the first seven years it was offered as compared to the 380's first seven years:

747 = 225
380 = 159

Though, as stated above, there is really no comparing these becase they are not direct competors.

Russ
My glass is neither 1/2 empty nor 1/2 full, rather, the glass itself is twice as big as it should be.
 
zvezda
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 4:17 am

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 19):
I think you would be a little shocked at the discounts Boeing gave to the airlines back in 2005 as they tried to sell out the line before launching the 747-8.

I would be shocked since Boeing didn't sell any to airlines in 2005.

Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 20):
At this stage of the program, additional A380 sales are needed to make sure it's line will continue to roll. If no additional sales are recorded in 2007, it's an indication that the A380 future is in jeopardy.



Quoting WINGS (Reply 22):
If Airbus manages to hold all it's 159 + 9 (SQ) on order then it's line will remain filled up until 2011-2012.

If by the end 2009 Airbus does not manage to capture new orders/options then I will agree with you.

!!! 3 to 4 years with ZERO orders would not be an indicator to you that the WhaleJet program is in jeopardy?!?!?!
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 4:37 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 24):
I would be shocked since Boeing didn't sell any to airlines in 2005.

In 2005 Boeing received orders from eight customers for a total of 48 B747s...


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 5:25 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 22):
If by the end 2009 Airbus does not manage to capture new orders/options then I will agree with you.

Don't agree. If there are no A380 sales until even mid-2008, it would seem to be a very strong indication that the market has passed on the A380.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
Adria
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 5:37 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
The average selling price for a JumboJet since 2000 has almost certainly been higher than the average selling price of a WhaleJet. All reports are that Boeing have not been making any firesale deals, while there are many, many reports that Airbus gave very steep discounts on most, if not all, of the WhaleJets.

Unless you can give some accurate numbers it is useless to make such statements.

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 7):
Yes, the 747 outsold the A380 - but only on freighter sales. If you compare like for like, passenger to passenger model sales, you have to go back to something like 1998 for 747 passenger sales to match A380 passenger sales.

Statistics are a wonderful thing, they allow you to start threads like this one.

Correct

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 15):
To whom? Just because it has a higher list price, doesn't mean it's worth more. I can offer to sell my watch more $300M, but if I have to discount it to $300 in order to get the sale, I can't claim it's worth $300M. Airlines are paying more for JumboJets than for WhaleJets. So how do you figure a WhaleJet is worth more?

Again give some figures on how much an airline paid for the 747 and then do the same for the A380 (because only then it even makes sense to talk about how much "worth" is the A380-men you would really say anything just to bash the A380). I'm waiting...
 
Adria
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 5:41 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 25):
In 2005 Boeing received orders from eight customers for a total of 48 B747s...

You may add 747Fs...
 
zvezda
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 5:44 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 25):
In 2005 Boeing received orders from eight customers for a total of 48 B747s...

None of those eight customers were airlines. All of those 48 B747s were freighters.

Quoting Adria (Reply 27):
Again give some figures on how much an airline paid for the 747 and then do the same for the A380 (because only then it even makes sense to talk about how much "worth" is the A380-men you would really say anything just to bash the A380). I'm waiting...

Haha! Ask the airlines -- and don't forget to tell them you'll sign an NDA.
 
Adria
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 5:59 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 29):
Haha! Ask the airlines -- and don't forget to tell them you'll sign an NDA.

Obviously you did otherwise why would somebody make such statements without any real facts? So I'm still waiting...
 
Shenzhen
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 6:14 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 25):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 24):
I would be shocked since Boeing didn't sell any to airlines in 2005.

In 2005 Boeing received orders from eight customers for a total of 48 B747s...


PH

Zvezda is just playing word games, so I wouldn't get too bothered. Boeing sold 48 frames, and I can gurantee that a lot of them were with "very" large discounts.

Cheers
 
redflyer
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 6:43 am

Quoting EHHO (Reply 1):
Dude, you're comparing apples with oranges. First and foremost, A380 and the 744 aren't direct competitors.

No, they aren't. But Airbus speculated plenty of times in the late 90's that 747 sales would all but end beginning in 2000 when the A380 would be formally launched. Clearly, they expected the A380 to kill-off the 747. I'm not sure why they thought that since we all know it's like "comparing apples with oranges."  Wink

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
Does anyone know how to get the yearly orders by model off the Airbus website?

A380 sales:

2000 - 55
2001 - 42
2002 - 0
2003 - 27
2004 - 6
2005 - 29
2006 - 0*

* - SQ has not firmed up their 9 option conversions.
My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
 
RedChili
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 7:06 am

Quoting Iwok (Thread starter):
Net : 162, 159

Many people have pointed out several deficiencies to your presentation of the statistics. Personally, I believe that the biggest problem with your statistics is that they don't take into account at what time the airline expected to take delivery of the airplane. Many of the 747 orders that you mention were for delivery at a time when the A380 was not available for delivery.

E.g.: If an airline decided in 2002 to order a VLA for delivery in 2004, the only option was a 747.

So in order to make a meaningful comparison of recent A380 sales versus 747 sales, you would have to compare:

Passenger: A380 v 747 orders for intended delivery for 2006 or later (when the first A380 was supposed to be delivered).
Freighters: A380F v 747F orders for intended delivery for 2008 or later (when the first A380F was supposed to be delivered).

When you break down the orders by delivery date, you will see that the A380 wins hands down in the competition for passenger airplanes. IIRC, Boeing has only a handful of "business jet" orders for the 747 for that period. Concerning freighters, Boeing comes out ahead of Airbus.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
Shenzhen
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 7:11 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 33):
E.g.: If an airline decided in 2002 to order a VLA for delivery in 2004, the only option was a 747.

So in order to make a meaningful comparison of recent A380 sales versus 747 sales, you would have to compare:

Passenger: A380 v 747 orders for intended delivery for 2006 or later (when the first A380 was supposed to be delivered).
Freighters: A380F v 747F orders for intended delivery for 2008 or later (when the first A380F was supposed to be delivered).

I guess if we used this analogy, then the 787 and A350 are tied at zero.

Cheers
 
BoomBoom
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 7:13 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 33):
you will see that the A380 wins hands down in the competition for passenger airplanes.

I think that's what's known as a Pyrrhic victory...
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
RedChili
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 7:15 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 32):
But Airbus speculated plenty of times in the late 90's that 747 sales would all but end beginning in 2000 when the A380 would be formally launched. Clearly, they expected the A380 to kill-off the 747.

Judging by the order book, it seems that the A380 has indeed killed off the passenger versions of the 747, as Boeing has almost no orders for pax-747s for delivery from 2006 and onwards. Having said that, I fully expect Boeing to receive many orders for the 748i in the future.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
RedChili
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 7:23 am

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 34):
I guess if we used this analogy, then the 787 and A350 are tied at zero.

Today it's extremely difficult to compare those two airplanes, since Airbus has not committed to the A350XWB yet. But if the A350XWB is launched with an EIS in 2014, then it's correct that they are tied today.

Concerning deliveries for 2008-2010, it would be meaningful to compare sales for the 787 versus the A332. The 787 wins hands down.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 35):
I think that's what's known as a Pyrrhic victory...

Probably. Although (as I believe) Airbus has developed a great airplane, they messed up the production really well. And this production mess actually means that if an airline wants to order a VLA today for delivery in 2010, the only alternative is probably the 748i, as there are no free delivery slots for A380s.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
ikramerica
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 7:40 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 35):
I think that's what's known as a Pyrrhic victory...

"Another such victory over the Romans and we are undone"

Replace "the Romans" with BOEING, and yes, if Airbus earns another such victory with the A350X, for example, it will be the end of them...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
KQ772
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 9:18 am

The 747 has outsold the A380 may be due to the fact that is is much older in the sense it has been in service way longer than the A380.

The 380 still has to make its first commercial flight with SQ some time next year due to the deliveries for the aircraft being a year late behind schedule.

So maybe it is a possibility that airlines who have made the orders are familiar with the 747(such as having it in their fleets before) and/or if they had made orders for the first time then they were also familiar with the operating costs etc.


However I still love the 747 and the A380 wont replace it has the jumbo jet since it is so unique!

KQ772
 
alaska737
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 12:39 pm

BTW which has longer range, 748 or A380???
 
ikramerica
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 1:32 pm

Quoting Alaska737 (Reply 40):
BTW which has longer range, 748 or A380???

B launched the 748i initially with 8000nm range to match the A380 launch range.

Since, the 748i range grew to 8300nm from windtunnel testing. But then they stretched it to return the range to 8000nm.

Ultimately, I see the in service "range" as coming out higher than that, though obviously the real range is always lower. 10-20% lower. So you can see both planes on 6400nm routes without functional loading restrictions.

We hope.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
kaitak
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 1:45 pm

Here's an analysis of the last 100 747 deliveries, which might be of interest on this topic; I did it without any reference to the A380 - it was really intended to focus on Asian 744F operators.

Last 100 747 Deliveries - Analysis (by Kaitak Oct 26 2006 in Civil Aviation)

With regard to range, don't forget that the range of freighters is significantly less than that of a freighter; a 747-400 pax aircraft with (say) 400 pax and freight will have a payload of around 50-60,000 kgs max, whereas a freighter can take up to 120,000kgs, but that extra payload costs range, hence the maximum range of a -400F is about 5,500nm, just about enough to get you from Europe to Seoul. With this in mind, I'd expect the range of the 747-8IF to be around 6,000nm; that is, however, a very respectable figure - around 6,900mi - certainly good for transpacific and most Asia - Europe routes.

The other point that needs to be considered is that despite the A380F being a larger aircraft, the 747 has significant advantages in loading, because of the nose door and the ability to load straight on through that. It contributes to shorter turnarounds.

[Edited 2006-10-26 06:49:41]
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
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RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 2:05 pm

Quoting KQ772 (Reply 39):
The 380 still has to make its first commercial flight with SQ some time next year

That's optimistic. Airbus are promising to deliver the first WhaleJet in October 2007 and the second in 2008.

Quoting KQ772 (Reply 39):
due to the deliveries for the aircraft being a year late behind schedule.

They are more than a year behind schedule. Most deliveries are two years or more behind schedule. The first delivery is 19 months behind schedule.

Quoting Alaska737 (Reply 40):
BTW which has longer range, 748 or A380???

Both are promised at 8000nm. Boeing have a history of exceeding range promises. Airbus do not. One way or another, the difference will probably be not much more than a few hundred nautical miles.
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1767
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:45 am

RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 2:32 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 42):
the maximum range of a -400F is about 5,500nm

The range at max payload is 5000 nm for the -400ERF, and 4500 nm for the -400F.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 42):
I'd expect the range of the 747-8IF to be around 6,000nm

No, it's back to 4500 nm at max payload, same as the -400F.

Few cargo operators seem to want more than 4500 nm range, which explains why the A380F, with 5600 nm range at max payload, isn't selling very well. (All that talk about excessive OEW/payload is the same issue, since more range = more OEW.)
 
turkishaviator
Posts: 17
Joined: Thu Jun 22, 2006 1:10 pm

RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Thu Oct 26, 2006 2:58 pm

Does anyone have numbers for 787 vs A330 since the announcement of 787 project ?
If it ain't Boeing I am not going
 
PlaneHunter
Posts: 6512
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:17 am

RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Fri Oct 27, 2006 2:14 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 29):
None of those eight customers were airlines. All of those 48 B747s were freighters.

It's not relevant whether they were freighters or not - check this discussion again (especially Shenzhen's comments).
And last time I checked Cargolux, China Cargo, Jade Cargo, Korean Air, ANA and UPS were still airlines...


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
AirbusA6
Posts: 1484
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2005 5:53 am

RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Fri Oct 27, 2006 5:32 am

I can see 3 alternative scenarios playing out (I'm assuming that that 747 will continue to get most of the freighter orders)

1) The A380 gets lots of orders, with the 748i being a fringe model
2) The 748i gets as many orders as the A380, but both sell reasonably well
3) Neither the A380 nor the 748i get many orders, as most people order the smaller 777/787/A350XWB instead

1) would suggest Airbus got it right
2) would suggest Boeing got it right (smaller aircraft, flying from regional airports, higher frequency etc)
3) would suggest Airbus got the strategy right, but failed on the implementation (if they can be matched by an improved 60s design)
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Fri Oct 27, 2006 5:36 am

AirbusA6, I think scenario 3) is the likely one, but I don't understand how your conclusion 3) follows from it.
 
Poitin
Posts: 2651
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 6:32 am

RE: 747 Outsold 380 Since 2000.

Fri Oct 27, 2006 5:46 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 42):
The other point that needs to be considered is that despite the A380F being a larger aircraft, the 747 has significant advantages in loading, because of the nose door and the ability to load straight on through that. It contributes to shorter turnarounds.

Also, as someone pointed out in another tread, the A380 requires two double height loaders at each site the A380F operates at (one for backup) while most airports already have multiple loaders for the 747F.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?