ksupilot
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Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:13 am

If the A350 does become the success that Airbus hopes it will be, and does overthrow the 777, do you think Boeing will sit back and allow this to happen?
I can't see Boeing launching Y3 so soon, so is it possible for them to update the 777? Kind of like they did with the 737NGs to match the A320.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:25 am

At this point, the continued delays with the A380 and A350 are breathing life into the 777 as airlines search for interim capacity. EK for example is taking additional 773ER as a stop-gap for lost to A388 delays. In the short/mid-term, Boeing is okay.

Also consider that the A350-900 is only a 772ER competitor, and sales of the 772ER began declining almost six years ago. The peak of the 772ER market has long sense past, so the A359 isn't really "killing" a hot-selling product.

Since 2000, the 777LR have been the primary sales focus of the 777 program, and the A350-1000 will (to some extent) compete with the 773ER. But the A350-1000 will come even later than the A359, perhaps in 2014-2015. At that point, the 773ER will have seen more than a decade of revenue service and will be suitable for either an overhaul or replacement program.

In other words: Yes Airbus is targeting Boeing's highly successful products, yes the A350 will be more economical than the 777, and yes... it only took them 10-15 years to do it.

As for Boeing's options as to countering the larger A350 variants, there are numerous routes they could take. Boeing is already marketing the 787-10 as an A359 competitor and 772ER replacement. As for the 773ER, Boeing could either overhaul the 777 with new technology, or launch Y3 in 2015-2020.
 
D L X
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:27 am

With the A350 still merely a paper airplane with limited interest and a LOOONG wait, I think reports of the 777's death have been greatly exaggerated.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:29 am

I'm with DfwRevolution. Boeing will use the window they have to sell as many 777s as they can. They can offer deals that still return a nice RoI per frame as well as bundle 777s together with 787s and even 747s to try and secure as large a back-log as they can.

Airbus will have the upper hand with the second wave of 747, 777 and A340 replacements, but if Boeing can book a backlog into the mid-2010s, they have a nice cushion to sit on as they determine what they want to do when it comes time for the third wave of 747, 777 and A340 replacements.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:31 am

Boeing is continually working on getting weight out of the 772LR and 773ERs knowing the success of the program depends on making it successful for 20 years or more - the typical economic life of modern airplanes.

There are alot of 747s in service that will probably be replaced before the 1000 enters service; 747 replacements will come from both the 773 and the A380 with the 773 probably getting a disproportionately larger share of the market. The 773 is a very economical aircraft by today's standards - and the A350 in all versions is still nothing more than a pipe dream as are all of Airbus' new generation widebodies .
 
ksupilot
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:43 am

Yeah it seemed strange that people were already predicting the death of an aircraft that's a little over a decade old. I just don't see Boeing going for Y3 as early as 2015.
I hope the continue to make improvements, as the 777 can only get better. Sure the A350 will have better technology, however, the 777 will have a decade and a half to get all the kinks out of the system. By then it will be regarded as a trusted and solid design like the 737 and A320.

Here is another scenario...if the 748I fails to leave the drawing board, do you think there will be a further stretch of the 777 fuselage? Is this not what Airbus did with the 340-600 in order to get into the 747s market? Sure the 777 could never reach the A380, but I'm sure it could come close to the 748.

This was brought up last year in another thread:

"While we anxiously wait for Boeing to decide the fate of the 747ADV, it is highly likely that some way or the other they will want to have a plane in the 450 pass niche. Could a stretch 777-400 be a better candidate for that segment or would the ADV have a better potential for Boeing and airlines. It is still questionable if enough airlines would want a 747ADV , if the line can stay alive long enough receive this new variant ,or if the popularity of the 777 could spawn a longer version more suitable to market conditions. What do you guys think?"
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:56 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 2):
With the A350 still merely a paper airplane with limited interest and a LOOONG wait, I think reports of the 777's death have been greatly exaggerated.

 checkmark  Couldn't be better said! I think the 777 will be a highly viable air frame and an ace seller for Boeing for some years to come, well into the next decade. I've even observed speculation about an eventual 777-400ER/LR in many of these threads. The 787 will take "some" would be 777 sales at this point but the 772LR World-liner and its 773ER larger sibling counterpart are still world-class workhorses for any airline that calls themselves global. I don't see Boeing relegating the 777 to the out of production line prior to 2020. That is unless they want to see premium prices for used ones on the market as they are for the now out of production 757!
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ksupilot
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 12:07 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 6):
Couldn't be better said! I think the 777 will be a highly viable air frame and an ace seller for Boeing for some years to come, well into the next decade. I've even observed speculation about an eventual 777-400ER/LR in many of these threads. The 787 will take "some" would be 777 sales at this point but the 772LR World-liner and its 773ER larger sibling counterpart are still world-class workhorses for any airline that calls themselves global. I don't see Boeing relegating the 777 to the out of production line prior to 2020. That is unless they want to see premium prices for used ones on the market as they are for the now out of production 757!

Agree 100%. Will the sales come in like they do for the 737...no. But over time they will add up. Even this year so far there have been 24 777 orders. Still pretty good for an aircraft of this size, especially when the 787 is grabbing all of the headlines.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see a -400 version of the 777. It would have nice cargo capabilities in addition to the increased passenger load. Maybe this is something the 777 line needs to solidify its place in the Boeing lineup into the next decade. Instead of developing the a.net rumoured 787-11, I would much rather see a -400 version of the 777.
 
Boston92
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 12:21 pm

Well in my mind, the 787 is ultimately replacing the 757/767 and making it into one aircraft, we wont see the 777 die for a long time, not until its time for Boeing to replace it with an updated name. Call it a -400, or call it a 797, there will always be a Long Range Boeing like the 777.
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baron95
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 12:48 pm

Of course they'll let the 777 die - the question is when. Lets take a look at the prospects for the 777 line.

Until at least 2014 (earliest EIS date for A359XWB) the 772LR, 773ER, 777F will be best in class, with the 772ER getting a bit of competition from the 787-9.

From 2014-2016 from A359XWB EIS to A350-1000WBEIS only the 772ER is under direct competition from A359XWB and 787-10. Lets say the 772ER sales drop just for fleet comonality. Still 772LR, 773ER, 777F are best in class.

From 2016 on, 772LR, 773ER, 777F start facing serious competition. Now this is 10 years from today. Still the question remains, can Airbus deliver ALL the lift in that class of airplane? Of course not. Just as Boeing today can not deliver all the lift and sales of A333 and A345/A346 continue even in the presence of the 777 superiority. So Boeing continues to deliever 777F, 772LR, 773ER for another 10 years+.

So, even if Boeing does not do a thing, the 777 should have another 20 years+ of life left.

Now, I expect that Boeing will do one or more of the following:
- Develop 777 tanker for the airforce
- Develop a 773LR (with 120Klbs GE90s)
- Develop a 777-400 with 400 seats 3 class
- Remove about 15klbs of weight out of the 772LR and 773ER
- Certified a combination of slightly better SFC GE90s, winglets, inproved trailing and leading edge wing devices, lighter wireless IFE, for a combined fuel consumption improvement of some 5% across the line.
- Offer better discounts

All of that, will keep the line very much alive for 20-25 years+

So yes, Boeing will let the 777 die, but A.net may die way before that  Smile
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 1:02 pm

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 9):
So yes, Boeing will let the 777 die, but A.net may die way before that  Smile

 laughing   rotfl   rotfl 

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 9):
- Develop a 773LR (with 120Klbs GE90s)
- Develop a 777-400 with 400 seats 3 class

These two I see over the next 3-5 years.
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SkyvanMan
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 1:06 pm

No, not in the near fturue, especially since they have not only heavily investedi n the aircraft itself but also in getting ETOPS regulations changed for it plus they spent money to improve the runway at Midway to further capability while operating under ETOPS. I seriously believe that the only way that the 777 will die is if they develop a huge version of the 787 or develop a plane to ocmplete directly with the a340 (basically a 4 engined 777 would be what boeign would need). Since it is unlikely Boeing will build a completely new 4 engined aircraft (rather than just updating the 747), The 777 seems to have a long future in my eyes.
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ksupilot
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 1:09 pm

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 9):
Now, I expect that Boeing will do one or more of the following:
- Develop 777 tanker for the airforce
- Develop a 773LR (with 120Klbs GE90s)
- Develop a 777-400 with 400 seats 3 class
- Remove about 15klbs of weight out of the 772LR and 773ER
- Certified a combination of slightly better SFC GE90s, winglets, inproved trailing and leading edge wing devices, lighter wireless IFE, for a combined fuel consumption improvement of some 5% across the line.
- Offer better discounts

Looking at those:

-Develop 777 tanker: Chances of happening? 8/10...Highly likely. This would make sense. There is going to have to be some sort of replacement for the KC-10 and the KC-135, the T7 could do the job and thensome. And once you get the military involved, you are guarunteed some return for many years to come.

-Develop a 773 LR: Chances of happening? 7/10...Likely. If the 772 LR is a success this may be a viable option for Boeing. Deffinatly easier to pull off than say a 774.

-Develop a 774: Chances of happening? 4/10...Not likely. The only thing I think that is keeping this from being a 0/10 is the fact that Boeing did some studies in '99 I believe. What could make this much more likely is if the 748 is a dismal failure for Boeing.

-Remove 15klbs of weight/other improvements: Chances of happening? 10/10...Will Happen. This is the easiest option for Boeing, and the most likely. Combine this with the next option on your list (better GE90, winglets, lighter wireless IFE) and you have yourself a nice new variant. Also add a 787-style cabin and you have yourself a 777NG.

Out of all the options listed, the last one is the most likely. Maybe even call it the 777-400 to make it appear as an entirely new aircraft. The 787 cabin is a must, and it would be something airlines are interested in, as this one of the big hits with the 787. This will also increase the chances of "packages" where 787s and are purchased along with 777s.

And what about incorporating some of the GeNX technology into the GE90. Boeing is using the GeNX on the 747-8, in order to improve efficiency, maybe the same could be done with the T7. It just comes down to whether you could still have the same GE90 power.

With small improvements like these...5-10% increases in efficiency, the 777 life could be extended easily to 2025.
 
mymorningsong
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 1:43 pm

777-400 Viability? (by MotorHussy Jun 8 2006 in Civil Aviation)?searchid=2813704&s=777-400#ID2813704

Good thread about potential of the 774 from a few months ago.
 
eatmybologna
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 1:48 pm

Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 12):
Remove 15klbs of weigh

Call me skeptical, but how would they pull that off?  listen  I thought the T7 is already optimized? Are there some new material substitutes (carbon fiber) ? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. If they can, when do you think they'll be in service?

Thanks,  Smile

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grantcv
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 2:47 pm

Quoting Eatmybologna (Reply 14):
Call me skeptical, but how would they pull that off? I thought the T7 is already optimized? Are there some new material substitutes (carbon fiber) ? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. If they can, when do you think they'll be in service?

I thought I read recently that there are plans underway to remove additional weight from some overdesigned components in order to improve the range of the 772LR for Qantas.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 2:49 pm

Quoting Eatmybologna (Reply 14):
Call me skeptical, but how would they pull that off? I thought the T7 is already optimized? Are there some new material substitutes (carbon fiber) ? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. If they can, when do you think they'll be in service?

Take a look at what Boeing did for the 767-400. This is a plane that came AFTER the first 777s rolled down various runways and into service. I can only think that the development of the 787 with all of it's composites can only enhance some future versions of the 777. By the time the 764 came along, there were other alternatives for most carriers except DL and CO who are the only carriers I know who fly the 764, BUT given that the 764 is so much more advanced than the 762 or 763 it has clearly been a contributing factor to Boeing being able to keep the 767 line open, whereas they decided to close the 757 line (although prematurely in my opinion).

Quoting Boston92 (Reply 8):
there will always be a Long Range Boeing like the 777.

Which is why Airbus will be playing "catch-up" over the next couple of decades in the wide-body, longhaul market.  stirthepot 
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baron95
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 3:00 pm

Quoting Eatmybologna (Reply 14):
Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 12):
Remove 15klbs of weigh

Call me skeptical, but how would they pull that off?

Boeing has announced a program to remove about 12000-lbs from the 772LR to enable, among other things, better economics (payload) on SYD-LHR route.

Most of the improvements will be just from manufacturing and materials optimization. For example, better interior materials, certified lighter seats, lighter IFE, galleys, lighting, etc. Others will be from improved mannufactuing of parts and components with less weight. You'd be surprised how a lit bit here and a little bit there can add up.

Just think about this - a typical long range large airliner, carries about 800 lbs in magazines alone (that is an extra 4 paying passangers). If you save 3 lbs/seat on the IFE, that is another 1200 lbs (an extra 6 passangers). Things add up.
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zvezda
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Fri Oct 27, 2006 3:17 pm

The A350-1000 and B787-10 will (after several years) kill off the B777-300ER despite being smaller due to dramatically better operating economics. At that point, the line may stay open for a while building freighters and military versions.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 9):
Now, I expect that Boeing will do one or more of the following:
- Develop 777 tanker for the airforce

40% That would require winning a contract first.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 9):
- Develop a 773LR (with 120Klbs GE90s)

1% The B777-300ER already offers the payload/range performance that most airlines need. Small improvements may come from lower SFC and reduced weight. Development of a B777-300LR would cost more than it would net Boeing.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 9):
- Develop a 777-400 with 400 seats 3 class

<1% Boeing have studied and rejected this idea. See the thread quoted above.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 9):
- Remove about 15klbs of weight out of the 772LR and 773ER

50% This would not be enough to make the B777 competitive against either the A350 or B787 but it would increase sales and prices during the window before they become available.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 9):
- Certified a combination of slightly better SFC GE90s, winglets, inproved trailing and leading edge wing devices, lighter wireless IFE, for a combined fuel consumption improvement of some 5% across the line.

Continued small SFC improvements are nearly certain. Wireless IFE is possible. Aerodynamic changes are very unlikely as that was just done a few years ago and there is no low-hanging fruit left. It is also very expensive.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 9):
- Offer better discounts

100% chance of at least somewhat greater discounts.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 12:42 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 1):
As for Boeing's options as to countering the larger A350 variants, there are numerous routes they could take. Boeing is already marketing the 787-10 as an A359 competitor and 772ER replacement. As for the 773ER, Boeing could either overhaul the 777 with new technology, or launch Y3 in 2015-2020.

Let me join the corus agreeing with DfwRevolution. The 777F and 773ER (probably range extended) have a long time to go. Where I disagree is the 772LR. I don't see any of those selling after 2011. Its a niche market that where demand will be met quickly.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 9):
From 2016 on, 772LR, 773ER, 777F start facing serious competition. Now this is 10 years from today.

Quite frankly, the resources soaked up by A380 development gave Boeing a long window with the 777. I was working on an engine for the A305 (a very 787 aircraft out of aluminum) when the A380 was launched. The next minute the A305 was put on the shelf.  Sad

Its all a question of when Y2 and Y3 are launched. One will have to come before the other... IMHO, I think Boeing should "protect" the single isle sector with a new product over the small 777 niche they aren't producing new product. I agree with Zvezda, the 787-10 and A350-1000 will effectively fill the niche the 773ER is now filling.

Hey, more products are better!  bigthumbsup 

Lightsaber
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baw716
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 12:57 am

The short answer is...no.

The only aircraft capable of killing the 777-200 is the 787-10 and we are very far from that.

As others have said, the fact that the A350 is not off the ground and the A380 doesn't look like it will deliver before sometime in 2007 (or possibly later), so I agree that carriers will be looking for capacity and the 777-300ER is the candidate to fill that hole.

The 777-200LR has not sold as well as Boeing would have liked; that said, if they can get more weight out of the airplane so it can do a mission like LHR-SYD nonstop in both directions year round, then this program may continue for some time.

Of course, one should never say never, but with the problems at Airbus changing by the day, Boeing is definitely keeping its options open and with aircraft that will get the job done and can be delivered within a reasonable time frame, I think the 777 will be around for awhile.

baw716
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jfk777
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 2:34 am

Boeing will develop a third generation 777. It will come in either a longer range model of existing size, 773LR, or it could be 774. New 787 technologies will spill over to later 777 like later 767's have of 777's. Boeing will also offer the two pronged 777/787 to better fit multiple mission then the A350. This has worked at Air Canada & Air India. ANA and JAL will also be huge user of both the 77/87. Whatever the third generation 777 looks like it will do for the 777 what the 744 did for the 747 or the 737NG did foe the 737.
 
baron95
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 3:14 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 19):
Where I disagree is the 772LR. I don't see any of those selling after 2011. Its a niche market that where demand will be met quickly.

This is such a misconception. A 772LR has better economics than the 772ER over most routes longer than about 4000nm and much better economics on ANY route longer than 5000nm - even considering the higher acquisition costs.

As DL did recently, you can expect to see a lot of non-specific 777 and 772ER orders converted to 772LRs.

Remember that the plane has just recently been certified and EIS and delivery slots are still hard to come by. The 772LR is and will remain the premier 300-seat long-haul airplane for quite some time, as the 773ER will remain the premier 350-seal long haul airplane.

Now, you can argue, correctly, that most airlines preffer their long haul airplanes in 350 rather than 300 seats. So the 773ER should outsell the 772LR, But other airlines, AA, DL, CO, etc preffer smaller planes due to ultra competitive environments. They, plus carriers with true ULH missions will buy the 772LR in pretty decent numbers.
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Alessandro
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 3:18 am

The question is how far can GE and the others stretch the engines like the GE90-115, that´s
the limitation, not the airframe?
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Stitch
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 3:18 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 19):
Where I disagree is the 772LR. I don't see any of those selling after 2011. Its a niche market that where demand will be met quickly.

It's better then a 772ER beyond 2000nm in terms of economics and will carry a larger payload out to the range limits of the 772ER. I expect the 772ER's sales are about done thanks to the arrival of the 772LR more then airlines waiting for the 787-10 and A350-900.  Smile

The biggest drawback is the price tag, but Boeing will probably be willing to be aggresive to win orders while they can.
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 3:35 am

Certainly Boeing can overahaul the 777 like they have with the 747 and 737 over the years. The only question is whether or not any overhaul will be competitive with a new Airbus.

Emirates' Clark stated the following today...

quote
Emirates is pushing Boeing for a larger variant of the 787 while Clark said Airbus would have to go beyond the current design of the A350 if it wanted to win the order.

"It has to be better than that," he said of the A350 XWB (extra wide body), which was unveiled in July after a series of earlier proposed A350 models failed to win strong market support.
unquote

The comment could be taken as the A350XWB doesn't leapfrog the 777 of today, meaning a 15 percent increase in operating costs that would drive an airline to replace existing fleets.

Cheers
 
pygmalion
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 4:08 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
The biggest drawback is the price tag, but Boeing will probably be willing to be aggressive to win orders while they can

Dont forget that Boeing is implementing lean production on the 777 line.

Moving Line Article

This will allow them to drive costs down and offer the airplanes at a lower cost much like the moving line did for the 737 sales campaigns. Lowering the cost of production allows you to be more competitive on price and/or to improve profits to provide cash flow for other R&D. Boeing is funding the 787 from current cash flow. That increase in R&D dollars they announced isn't coming from loans, its being reinvested from profits and they are still forecasting double digit profit margins.

Airbus's biggest problem right now is their cost structure. With cash flow down due to postponed deliveries and increased costs to implement a recovery in production... they just don't have as much money to spend on moving ahead of the competition.
 
zvezda
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 5:13 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 21):
Boeing will develop a third generation 777.

I would bet 10 to 1 against it.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 22):
A 772LR has better economics than the 772ER over most routes longer than about 4000nm and much better economics on ANY route longer than 5000nm - even considering the higher acquisition costs.

That is irrelevant because the B787-10 will have much better economics than either.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 22):
Now, you can argue, correctly, that most airlines preffer their long haul airplanes in 350 rather than 300 seats.

One can argue that, but it wouldn't be correct.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 22):
So the 773ER should outsell the 772LR,

The real reason is lower CASM.
 
Devilfish
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 6:44 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 18):
40% That would require winning a contract first.

Just wishful thinking, but KC-777 winning against KC-330: 80%  Smile
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ikramerica
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 6:59 am

Quoting KSUpilot (Reply 12):
Out of all the options listed, the last one is the most likely. Maybe even call it the 777-400 to make it appear as an entirely new aircraft.

This is only my opinion, but if the 777 gets a NG program, it will involve a serious redesign of the structure including advanced materials for as much as possible. While I can't see them doing CFRP barrels on this airframe (that would be for a real Y3), they could do CFRP wings and control surfaces, CFRP engine cowlings, CFRP main floor structure and cargo floor structure, etc. You might also see a composite cockpit and tail cone section, both redesigned aerodynamically along the lines of the 787, or even using the same sections in the same way the 777 and 767 share cockpit sections. Thus flying a 777NG would be a lot like flying a 787.

On top of that, a stretch of the 772 to 340 seats and a stretch of the 773 to 390 seats, and renamed 777-7 and 777-8. This would slot them above the 787-10 and market them squarely against the 350, using Airbus's CASM method by offering more seats. And it would slot them below the 748.

But would this be enough to counter the 350X? Would their efforts be better spent on a 787-10 and 787-11 that go up to 380 seats and let the 777F fly on with the 748F for many years to come? Only the crystal ball can tell us, and those things are fake anyway...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
jfk777
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:05 am

The 777 isn't going any where, Airbus can't even decide what kind of A350 its wants. We had the A350, then the A350 XWD and now the A350 ???. BY 2015 we might know, by then the 787 will have 500 units delivered.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:11 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 30):
The 777 isn't going any where, Airbus can't even decide what kind of A350 its wants. We had the A350, then the A350 XWD and now the A350 ???. BY 2015 we might know, by then the 787 will have 500 units delivered.

Airbus is ALWAYS 10-15 years behind Boeing! Who knows there might even be over 1,000 units of the 787 in circulation by then. I'll stand behind my earlier claim that if Boeing were to end the 777 production line the way they recently ended 757 production, there will be a high price for them in the used plane market.
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:19 am

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 22):
Now, you can argue, correctly, that most airlines preffer their long haul airplanes in 350 rather than 300 seats.

What I would also argue, but didn't write, is that that for most of the markets the 772LR is made for (4,000 nm, 250+ pax), once the A389 is in production, relatively few additional airframes would be required.

Suddenly there is a good CASM 263 seat (3-class) aircraft with an 8,800 nm range. That is a good 2,000+nm range increase over the 763/A332.

So I continue to believe, even after reading your post, that the 772LR won't have a sales life after 2011. Now, the 773ER and 772F... different story (so any "top off" orders could be acomodated).

The fact is most airframes have a very finite sales life. Sales life's can be extended, but at some point its best to start over. I'm not saying the 777 is a bad plane or shouldn't be ordered today... but by 2011 almost everyone who needs a plane with range larger than the 789 but smaller than the 777ER will have enough in their fleets (or will do small "top off" orders).

Due understand I'm biased... I belive that the current oil prices forced a step increase in the technology applied into airframes/engines reducing the current airframe's sales lives. In effect, today's planes are like the last propeller planes; well engineered and good for the job, but about to be replaced by something that both the airlines and customers will prefer.  spin  That said... I don't think 777F sales will get their true "legs" until 2010 and will sell well until maybe ~2015.

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NW727251ADV
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:25 am

Why do people keep bringing up a so-called "777-400"??? Hasn't it already been stated time and time again that the 777-300 pretty much is the limit for the 777? That the -300 airframe cannot be stretched significantly enough beyond its current form to justify a stretch?? But yet I still here people talking about this -400. Have things changed?
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American777
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:33 am

The Boeing 777 will never die! Boeing will keep adding strenght (power) to the 777 and we will hopefully see something like this in the future?


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zvezda
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:43 am

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 28):
Just wishful thinking, but KC-777 winning against KC-330: 80%

But there are other possibilities: KC-767, KC-787, no order.

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 31):
I'll stand behind my earlier claim that if Boeing were to end the 777 production line the way they recently ended 757 production, there will be a high price for them in the used plane market.

That would be very good for Boeing. High resale values are good for sales of future models.
 
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:09 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 31):
Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 30):
The 777 isn't going any where, Airbus can't even decide what kind of A350 its wants. We had the A350, then the A350 XWD and now the A350 ???. BY 2015 we might know, by then the 787 will have 500 units delivered.

Airbus is ALWAYS 10-15 years behind Boeing! Who knows there might even be over 1,000 units of the 787 in circulation by then. I'll stand behind my earlier claim that if Boeing were to end the 777 production line the way they recently ended 757 production, there will be a high price for them in the used plane market.

Ah the usual voice of balanced reason...The mid 80s A320 was definitely behind the 737NG of course, and the A300 behind the 767  Confused

The 777 will continue to be a hot seller, as the 773ER is an excellent replacement for many of the current 744s. But eventually it's time will end, especially if the 787 is the leap forward promised.
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Ken777
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:36 am

Right now I would put the chances of a 350-1000 getting produced as about equal to the 389 being produced. Both may have markets, but both will face competition for R&D funds (and engineers) to compete with the next generation narrow body competition. Since that's a good source of cash for Airbus I believe it will get priority when the money is needed. They certainly can't respond to a 737RS announcement by saying it's just a Chinese copy of the 320.

As for the smaller 350s, Boeing is going to keep both the 787 and 777 lines a moving target for Airbus to compete against. We might not see a 777 "NG", but there will probably be on-going enhancements over the next 10 years that will keep Airbus engineers working late into the night.
 
zvezda
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 8:38 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 37):
Right now I would put the chances of a 350-1000 getting produced as about equal to the 389 being produced.

Wow! I think the difference in probability is at least an order of magnitude.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 37):
They certainly can't respond to a 737RS announcement by saying it's just a Chinese copy of the 320.

Right. They tried that and it didn't fly.
 
baron95
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:06 am

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 33):
Why do people keep bringing up a so-called "777-400"??? Hasn't it already been stated time and time again that the 777-300 pretty much is the limit for the 777?

No. It that has NOT been decided. Other then A.net.

The length to fuselage diameter ratio of the 777 is much lower (more favourable) than that of the A346 and the envisioned 787-11. So clearly Boeing can do another 50 passanger strech to that fuselage without getting into the nasty corner of the inneficiencies of the long-thin tube.

Over rotation and tail strike can be solved with the same computer controlled tail-strike prevention system as the 748.

So CLEARLY doing a 777-400A (standard range) with the same MTOW of the 777-300ER is relatively straightforward.

Doing a 777-400ER, with an increased MTOW using the same uprated engines to be used in a 777-300LR would have two major issues to solve: landing gear/wing-box structural upgrade and availability of engines in the 125Klbs range. That is clearly a problem solvable by engineering.

I think that is a $1.5-2.0B upgrade program. Can Boeing do it? YES. Can they recover the investment? Tough to say. Can they partially recover the investment, but also make life so tough for Airbus (forcing them to discount and starve them of cash) that it is worth doing it? I think so. That is the same reason they did the 748.

But weight. It gets better than that.

If Boeing manages to take some 12Klbs of weight from the 772LR and 773ER like they are looking at doing, get a bit more SFC improvent from GE, accept a lightly shorter range on the 774-ER, they can probably pull it off with just a 20klbs increase in MTOW and a very modest 5klbs increase in thrust from the GE90.

It is very doable IF the market conditions dictate it.

All those on A.net that claim that a 777-400 is not do-able are just not looking at it from race-of-2 corporate strategy point of view. When the race is down to two, sometimes you do things that are less than optimal to your products to inflict optimal damage to the competition. Particular preventing them from getting up when they are down.
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zvezda
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 9:38 am

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 39):
No. It that has NOT been decided. Other then A.net.

... and Boeing.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 39):
The length to fuselage diameter ratio of the 777 is much lower (more favourable) than that of the A346 and the envisioned 787-11.

Fuselage heights are 222", 235", and 244" for the A340, B787, and B777 respectively. The ratio for the A340-600 is 13.0 to 1. The ratio for a hypothetical B787-11 with the same stretch as the other B787s is 12.4 to 1. The ratio for the B777-400X considered and rejected by Boeing was 12.8 to 1.

Going past 12 to 1 is not a problem for the B787 due to the inherent rigidity of CFRP. However, a B777-400X would suffer much the same structural inefficiency of the A340-600, which is a stretch too far for an aluminium fuselage.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 39):
So CLEARLY doing a 777-400A (standard range) with the same MTOW of the 777-300ER is relatively straightforward.

The rejected B777-400X would have been 79 meters long. There are few airports at which it could either taxi or park at a gate.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 39):
All those on A.net that claim that a 777-400 is not do-able are just not looking at it from race-of-2 corporate strategy point of view.

A B777-400X could be built in theory, but Boeing have rejected the idea. It was that or the B747-8. We've seen which was launched.
 
baron95
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 10:14 am

Zvezda, I hear you. I am not saying the 777-400 WILL be built. I am saying that it AND OLD: Guangzhou - Baiyun (CAN / ZGGG) (closed), China">CAN be built technically and it AND OLD: Guangzhou - Baiyun (CAN / ZGGG) (closed), China">CAN make economic sense (either by making money for Boeing or taking money away from Airbus) given some market conditions.

Furthermore, I am not advocating the 8m strech rumored for the 777-400X. I'm thinking more in the order of an additional 40-50 pssangers and a 5-6m strech (say 3 ahead/2 behind the wing).

I believe that, that modest strech, combined with the 773ER already better performance than Boeing estimated at the time of the 400X study, combined with slight improvements on the GE90 SFC, combined with the 777 weight savings initiative, combined with a slightly reduce range, combined with a slight increase in GE-90 power (say 122klbs) combined with the threat of the A350XWB, combined with the potential lack of success of the 748-I, combined with further flow through of 787 technologies to the 777, may tip the scales.

Yes it is a maybe, but it is certainly not a NEVER like ppl on A.net claim.

Just as Boeing rejected the 747-500, 747-600X, etc and said they'd NOT produce a larger 747, they changed their minds when the conditions changed (GEnX availability, composite wings transfer from 787, fuel prices, etc).

Same is true for the 777.

Just because the business case didn't close in 1999, doesn't mean it won't close in 2014 (15 years later).

It is non-sense for anyone to say it absolutely, positively won't happen. And it is even more non-sensical, for them to say it is due to technical reasons.

The A346 is attrocious on length, on length/width AND it has 4 blowers at that, but that hasn't stopped it from selling even in the face of the 773ER.

So don't dismiss it. Say it is unlikely, but not that it will never ever happen.
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zvezda
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 10:22 am

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 41):
I am not advocating the 8m strech rumored for the 777-400X. I'm thinking more in the order of an additional 40-50 pssangers and a 5-6m strech (say 3 ahead/2 behind the wing).

The last B777-400X proposal rejected by Boeing was for a 20 foot (6 meter) stretch.

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 41):
Say it is unlikely, but not that it will never ever happen.

I didn't write "never ever." I wrote:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 18):
<1% Boeing have studied and rejected this idea.

I won't say the chances are exactly zero out to eight significant figures, but I will assert that the chances are now less than 1%. There are technical, business, and operational reasons not to build a B777-400X. It would make more sense to build an 80 meter B787 than to build an 80 meter B777, in my opinion, though I don't expect to see that either.
 
JAL
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 11:05 am

Eventually, Boeing will have to let current 777 fade away in history and replace it with a new family of aircraft but that's like at least 10 years from now!

For now, the 777 is quite safe!
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jacobin777
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 11:09 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 42):
80 meter B787

787-12  stirthepot 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 11:20 am

Quoting JAL (Reply 43):
Eventually, Boeing will have to let current 777 fade away in history and replace it with a new family of aircraft but that's like at least 10 years from now!

For now, the 777 is quite safe!

It will continue to rule the skies of the long-haul wide-body market well past 2020, only then do I see it's sales starting to truly decline. Boeing stays on top for some time to come. A 774 has been ruled out for the time being, but I can't rule out a 773LR!
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Devilfish
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RE: Will Boeing Let The 777 Die?

Sat Oct 28, 2006 1:59 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 35):

But there are other possibilities: KC-767, KC-787, no order.

Yes, the likelihood of the USAF just re-engining and sticking it out with the KC-135 is always there. However, I believe the KC-787 was not in the revised Boeing proposal, while the KC-767 and KC-777 were. For the short term, I'd say the 767 would be "it" - but this belongs to Mil Av.
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