bmacleod
Posts: 2452
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 3:16 am

Boeing can't wait forever for a major airline to order the 747-8 pax. Those 4 or 5 unidentified VIP orders doesn't even scratch the surface of Boeing's required number to start production and rumors from KLM and BA aren't helping Boeing either.   

Some major carrier is going to have to make the bold step in the next 6-8 months or so or Boeing will be forced to only focus on is cargo version the 748F.

[Edited 2006-10-28 20:18:14]
The engine is the heart of an airplane, but the pilot is its soul.
 
khobar
Posts: 1336
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 4:12 am

RE: End Of The Road For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 3:20 am

Quoting Bmacleod (Thread starter):
Some major carrier is going to have to make the bold step in the next 6-8 months or so or Boeing will be forced to only focus on is cargo version the 748F

As long as Boeing makes their money back on the investment, I doubt they really care what version they sell.
 
SQno1
Posts: 678
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2004 10:41 pm

RE: End Of The Road For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 3:20 am

WHAT THE HELL!!!

The programme has only been avliable for airlines to purchase aircraft for under a year. Time will come and there will be many orders for the plane. I seem to recall that orders for A380 got off to a slow start as well.

With Regards,
Alex.B

[Edited 2006-10-28 20:21:18]
 
mauriceb
Posts: 2150
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:50 am

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 3:22 am

Quote:
and rumors from KLM and BA aren't helping Boeing either.

I highly doubt it if KLM will order any 747-8's anytime. they are keen on the A330 and 777-200ER/300ER and since boeing isn't alloud to build combi planes anymore, and with only 5 Full pax 747's, i think KLM rather chooses to order more 777-300ER's or 787-10/A350-1000 (when launched)
 
BA787
Posts: 2381
Joined: Sat Jun 03, 2006 9:40 pm

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 3:25 am

Quoting SQNo1 (Reply 2):
I seem to recall that orders for A380 got off to a slow start as well

Still haven't picked ujp right much  Big grin
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 3:26 am

Quoting Bmacleod (Thread starter):
Boeing can't wait forever for a major airline to order the 747-8 pax.

Boeing can wait forever for a major airline to order to the B747-8I SuperJumbo. They are selling enough freighters that it doesn't matter when they start selling the passenger version. If demand for freighters is higher than for passenger VLAs (which is obviously the case right now) such that Boeing can make more money by building freighters than passenger airliners, then Boeing would be nuts to sell their SuperJumbo on thin margins. It's only worthwhile for Boeing if the price is right.
 
futurecaptain
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2006 1:54 am

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 3:26 am

With the cargo varient being the same size it wont cost Boeing that much $$$ to offer the pax varient also will it? Same tooling, same production line, same workers, just putting pieces together.
Since it seems the frieghter will do just fine why not offer the pax version for the life of the program?
AirSO. ASpaceO. ASOnline. ASO.com ASO. ASO. ASO. ASO. ASO.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 3:54 am

Quoting Bmacleod (Thread starter):
Boeing can't wait forever for a major airline to order the 747-8 pax.

no, but while 11 months can seem like an eternity to a 1st grade student, it's just an evaluation period for multibillion dollar businesses.

here's the thing. It's been 1 month since Boeing "firmed" the "final" design for the pax, at least as how it will be marketed. The F was defined last november, the i was still a suggestion.

Now I expect that airlines will have to make a decision very soon to have any chance of delivery before 2012.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
mauriceb
Posts: 2150
Joined: Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:50 am

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 3:54 am

Quote:
With the cargo varient being the same size it wont cost Boeing that much $$$ to offer the pax varient also will it? Same tooling, same production line, same workers, just putting pieces together.

Not true, Cargo planes have way different systems than the Pax version, and boeing has to design a cabin interrior for the 747-8 which will cost alot.
 
Devilfish
Posts: 5181
Joined: Tue Jan 24, 2006 7:52 am

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 4:50 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 7):
Now I expect that airlines will have to make a decision very soon to have any chance of delivery before 2012.

One major airline contemplates leasing up to seven B773ERs to have interim lift capacity and questions the 748i's further stretch.....

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...+to+fill+Emirates'+A380+void.html

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...+of+747-8+Intercontinental%2c.html
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 5:18 am

Quote:
EMIRATES, the fastest growing global airline, has dumped orders worth $4 billion (£2.1 billion) for the Airbus A340 and admitted that it is in negotiations to buy $8 billion worth of Boeing 747s.

Tim Clark, the president of Emirates, said yesterday that he might buy 20 to 30 of the new 747s if Boeing agreed to change the specifications.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9067-2425433,00.html

So he may want 20-30 748i in addition to the 40+ A380s?
Good grief!
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
sphealey
Posts: 286
Joined: Tue May 31, 2005 12:39 am

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 5:25 am

> Boeing can't wait forever for a major airline
> to order the 747-8 pax.

You might want to Google "fleet in being", read up on that concept, and reconsider.

sPh
 
Ken777
Posts: 9024
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 5:27 am

Boeing is in a pretty good position with the 748i. It's a minimum cost project that will provide a good option for 747 users when it's time for replacement. The "replacement" aspect may delay orders, but I believe that they will come when the airlines are ready.

The 748i also provides a good product to counter the 380, especially in terms of costs. Not all routes are going to need a 380 and I believe that the 748i will do OK when these sales battles are fought.

Most importantly, the F version is there to keep the line operating and profitable during the slow times for the pax version. While it may be an abnormal situation for a "new' plane I don't think that Boeing is going to be upset with that situation.

While Boeing might get an order for the 748i this year I believe that the initial significant orders will start in 2007.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 5:44 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 10):
So he may want 20-30 748i in addition to the 40+ A380s?

Clark didn't say anything like "in addition to...."
 
DfwRevolution
Posts: 8549
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:31 pm

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 5:59 am

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 8):
Cargo planes have way different systems than the Pax version, and boeing has to design a cabin interrior for the 747-8 which will cost alot.

Not true: the 747-8 cabin features are rather simple derivatives of the existing 747-400 cabin systems and trim.

"Skylofts" and what-not would only be developed if an airline actually ordered them. If an airline just wanted a standard passenger cabin, the development cost would be marginal.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 12):
Boeing is in a pretty good position with the 748i. It's a minimum cost project that will provide a good option for 747 users when it's time for replacement.

 checkmark  - There is zero "drop date" for the 747-8I and Boeing can offer the -8I as long as the line remains open.
 
ShowerOfSparks
Posts: 136
Joined: Sat May 06, 2006 9:22 pm

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 6:49 am

Quoting MauriceB (Reply 8):
Not true, Cargo planes have way different systems than the Pax version, and boeing has to design a cabin interrior for the 747-8 which will cost alot.

You know, I could be wrong, but I suspect Boeing has an idea or two about the aircraft production business. I don't think you have to worry too much about it  Smile
 
legacytravel
Posts: 385
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 2:05 pm

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:05 am

It will take awhile for some airlines to place orders for the aircraft. Especially since some of the U.S carriers are just removed from BK and or are still in BK, and now have just started to make a profit.
I can see UA, NW, placing orders in the next 12-24 months for replacement aircraft as well as for some expansion. Especially UA they are in a desperate need for wide body aircraft for expansion. Their wide body fleet is stretched razor thin already. It would not surprise me to fing out that UA is currently working with Boeing behind the scenes on some of the engineering and design that will be incorporated into the aircraft. Ala the 777, and that UA will be the domestic launch customer for the 748.
Regards,
Mark in MKE
I love the smell of Jet fuel in the Morning
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:07 am

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 9):
One major airline contemplates leasing up to seven B773ERs to have interim lift capacity and questions the 748i's further stretch.....

EK contemplates a lot of stuff. Out loud. And it takes them months or more to act on this contemplation. It's taken them over a year to not act on the 787 or 350, it took them months to show displeasure about the 346 before canceling (and A doesn't admit they have).

If they wanted the shorter, longer range 748i that badly they could have ordered it after the June A380 delay.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
JAAlbert
Posts: 1549
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 12:43 pm

RE: Is There A Drop-Dead Date For The 747-8 Pax?

Sun Oct 29, 2006 10:57 am

I think the stretch pax version of the 747-8 is going to be very cool. Imagine -- an even bigger 747! Not to start a war (please!) as I will love flying on the 380, but you gotta admit, the 747 has a much better profile. Not stubby, but sleek and swift looking.

Is it cost effective for Boeing to offer two sizes of the 747-8? An order for 20-30 747s is huge.

And the question to end all questions -- just what the heck is Emirates gonna do with all those seats flying all over the place? It seems to me that a sizeable portion of the world's people are gonna have to be flying on a regular basis to keep all these planes filled. Is Emirates' growth plan realistic? Or will it end up like Pan Am in the 70s when Pan Am ordered all those 747s it couldn't fill? (or did Pan Am fail for a different reason(s)?)

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