eaglewarrior
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Airbus A350 XWB Question

Mon Oct 30, 2006 11:04 pm

With rumors that Airbus wants to go all composite with the A350 and the delays that will cause, what are the chances of airbus using bleed less technology like the B787?
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Mon Oct 30, 2006 11:15 pm

They should go bleedless, but really don't have too. Airbus has a long road ahead to catch the B-787 and every day they are loosing time and orders to the B-787. The customers that have already ordered the A-350XWB will decide if it should be all composite like the B-787. Any major change in design now will delay the program by years and possibly have existing orders cancelled so those customers can get production slots on the B-787.
 
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keesje
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Mon Oct 30, 2006 11:33 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 1):
Airbus has a long road ahead to catch the B-787 and every day they are loosing time

I think Airbus have no intention to catch / match the 787. They probably use the extra time to see the 787 fly, talk to the operators & improve on the right choices & avoid the bad choices. Normal smart follower tactics.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mptpa
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:04 am

Except, this could have grave ramifications if the B787 goes out with flying colors. airbus will then lose time and gain nothing. Then again, they have their plates full right now.
 
ebbuk
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:19 am

Quoting Mptpa (Reply 3):
Except, this could have grave ramifications if the B787 goes out with flying colors. airbus will then lose time and gain nothing. Then again, they have their plates full right now.

Both manufacturers have their plates full actually, Boeing can do diddly squat to capitalise on the delays to the 350 and/or the 380 delays.
 
CYatUK
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:28 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 1):
Airbus has a long road ahead to catch the B-787

Agree, if you refer to orders. Because in the technology sector I would assume (as the others said) that the A350XWB (if launched) could be more advanced than B787 since Airbus will be able to see what B787 will offer and make the relevant modifications.

Of course at this stage this is only speculation
CY@Uk
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:32 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 4):
Boeing can do diddly squat to capitalise on the delays to the 350 and/or the 380 delays.

Other than sell more 777 and 787, which Boeing is more than happy to do...
 
ebbuk
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:35 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 6):
Other than sell more 777 and 787, which Boeing is more than happy to do...

777 different market. 787 can't deliver before 2014. Fat lot of good to a hungry customer in need of efficient planes now.
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:35 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 4):
Both manufacturers have their plates full actually, Boeing can do diddly squat to capitalise on the delays to the 350 and/or the 380 delays.

I don't think this is quite accurate. We know that the 747, 777, and 787 production lines are pretty well full up. However, that doesn't say anything about their engineering resources. Even if they're full up now, we don't know where that leaves them at the crucial moment at about 2009-2010 when we will probably be entering the next phase of the marketing war. Right now, Airbus has significant engineering talent tied up for the foreseeable future. If Boeing has more available talent, then they can utilize that talent to get a jump on the next step.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
474218
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:38 am

Has the EADS Board of Directors even met, to make make the decision if they will build the A350XWB or not, yet?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:46 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 7):
777 different market. 787 can't deliver before 2014. Fat lot of good to a hungry customer in need of efficient planes now.

The 772LR and 773ER offer plenty of payload, range, and efficiency to tide customers over while they wait for A350XWBs or Y3.

And last I heard only the 787-8 was sold out through 2012 and no A350XWB model addresses her capacity, anyway. The 787-9 is still available for 2009 or perhaps 2010 delivery, and will directly cover the A350-800's, A330-300's, and A340-300's market, offering better efficiency then the latter two and years of revenue service before the former.
 
PolymerPlane
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:55 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 7):
777 different market.

No... XBW is in the 777 market. XBW-9 is competing with 772LR and XBW-10 is competing with 773ER. In fact, the XBW-9 is the baseline model of the XBW, just like 772 was.

Cheers,
PP
One day there will be 100% polymer plane
 
brendows
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:02 am

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 11):
XBW-9 is competing with 772LR

The A359R will compete with the 772LR. Partially at least... The A359 will compete with the 772ER, but will offer some more range.

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 11):
XBW-10 is competing with 773ER

We'll have to wait and see how much of a direct competitor it will be.
 
redflyer
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:07 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 4):
Boeing can do diddly squat to capitalise on the delays to the 350 and/or the 380 delays.

Which I think speaks volumes about the issues Boeing is itself facing and only alluded to last week in its earnings report. Any other company would kill to be in Boeing's shoes right now and be able to take advantage of a competitor's screw-up. They are unable to do so, which, to me, is just as bad as not doing anything at all to take advantage of your competitors' weaknesses.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 8):
If Boeing has more available talent, then they can utilize that talent to get a jump on the next step.

The problem is, Boeing does not have the available talent to get a jump on the next step, which would have been to open a 2nd production line on the 787. IMO, they are struggling to keep the 787 development process on track and not encounter problems like Airbus has.
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
PolymerPlane
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:31 am

Quoting Brendows (Reply 12):
The A359 will compete with the 772ER, but will offer some more range.

well... Airbus is not going to build the exact copy of Boeing's plane right? They will always partially compete.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 13):

Boeing won't react to all blips in the market. It's just a bad idea. Airplane market is a very small market and sluggish market. Boeing will not hire 5000 new engineers the next day after Airbus announces screw-ups. Even Boeing's executive has said that It want to be a mature company, that won't chase every last drop of the market if the consequences will bring Boeing back to late 90s.

But I don't agree that Boeing can't take advantage of the A350XWB issue. Boeing will be able to sell more 777s than if XWB is on time. Boeing will also have plenty of time, after sorting out the 787 EIS, to consider increasing 787 production capacity. Boeing will have better lead time than Airbus in developing next generation aircrafts. Don't expect this industry will act like coke and pepsi competition, which has much smaller response time.

Cheers,
PP
One day there will be 100% polymer plane
 
elvis777
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 9:57 am

Hi Keesje and EBBUK

Once again congrats on the recent 380 whalejet order. An avalanche has to start someplace right?

Anyways, back to the topic:

Quoting Keesje (Reply 2):
I think Airbus have no intention to catch / match the 787. They probably use the extra time to see the 787 fly, talk to the operators & improve on the right choices & avoid the bad choices. Normal smart follower tactics.

I am not sure I am ready to concede that eads is up to speed on the latest 'plastic' plane building technology, to steal a word from ebbuk. They are somewaht behind in know how in this area. They have some work ahead of them to catch up to boeing. And a bit more than that to surpass boeing. Alas, for all their majesty and technological prowess, eads tends to build heavier birds than b. So it will be a non trivial thing just to be on the same level... To add another wrinkle to the 'they will build a 2nd generation which will be superior to boeings' idea, it is unlikely that b will stand still. After all, it is not only the frandes ecoles that do a bit of material science. Heck, everyone out there (USA) seems to be offering grad degrees in material science, some even offer aeronautical engineering courses [!  Smile ]..... and that is just at the university level. So I guess what I am trying to say is that eads is not the only one that does engineerign stuff. See what I mean?

Ok., once again congrats on the recent 380 order.

Peace

Elvis777
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Ken777
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:49 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 4):
Both manufacturers have their plates full actually, Boeing can do diddly squat to capitalise on the delays to the 350 and/or the 380 delays.

Well, they have been able to come up with the 748 while their plate was full. They are also working on Y1, which has been somewhat in development since they started the Joint 787 - Y1 Development Program.

They are in a position to sit back while Airbus locks into the XWB program (along with finishing up the 380 program and getting all software users on the same page) and then jump in with a 737 RS announcement right after the 787 maiden flight.

All in all Boeing can do a lot more than diddly squat.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 2):
I think Airbus have no intention to catch / match the 787. They probably use the extra time to see the 787 fly, talk to the operators & improve on the right choices & avoid the bad choices. Normal smart follower tactics.

The problem is that they are following a bit late for today's market. At this time I doubt if Airbus even know if they will use Al or Cu wiring in the XWB.  Smile

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 13):
They are unable to do so, which, to me, is just as bad as not doing anything at all to take advantage of your competitors' weaknesses.



Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 13):
The problem is, Boeing does not have the available talent to get a jump on the next step, which would have been to open a 2nd production line on the 787. IMO, they are struggling to keep the 787 development process on track and not encounter problems like Airbus has.

The second production line is more a factor of suppliers getting the first line operating well and then moving up to a second line. Boeing can't move until the slowest supplier is ready, but then they can move rather fast.

The interesting question on the second line is IF Boeing has been agreeing in the sales contracts that customers can move up delivery times if the second line is opened. If Boeing is doing that then, in effect, they are close to obtaining the marketing benefits of a second line without having one finalized.

IMO they are WORKING VERY HARD to keep the 787 development process on track and not encounter problems like Airbus has and are probably doing a very good job of it.
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:33 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 13):
The problem is, Boeing does not have the available talent to get a jump on the next step, which would have been to open a 2nd production line on the 787. IMO, they are struggling to keep the 787 development process on track and not encounter problems like Airbus has.

I am referring to engineering talent, not manufacturing talent.

In any case, consider that the engineering timeline looks like this:

[06--07--08--09--10--11--12--13--14--15--16]
[===A380===][=====A350======][=====NSR===>
[===787====][=====737RS=====][=====Y3====>
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
elvis777
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:41 am

Hi N328,

actually from reports on IHT and aviation week as well as flight global the timelines look a wee bit different thant yours. X marks the changes I have made:

Quoting N328KF (Reply 17):

[06--07--08--09--10--11--12--13--14--15--16]
[===A380===][=====A350======XXXX??][=====NSR===>

[===787====][=====737RS=====][=====Y3====>

Peace

Elvis777
Leper,Unevolved, Misplaced and Unrepentant SportsFanatic and a ZOMBIE as well
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 12:25 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 2):
I think Airbus have no intention to catch / match the 787.

While the A332 has been the second-best-selling member of the Airbus widebody family, it may indeed be prudent for them to let the 787-8 win the bulk of replacement orders in that market. They can focus on using the A358 to win the A333, A343, and 772A replacement markets which together are twice as large.
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 12:33 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
While the A332 has been the second-best-selling member of the Airbus widebody family, it may indeed be prudent for them to let the 787-8 win the bulk of replacement orders in that market. They can focus on using the A358 to win the A333, A343, and 772A replacement markets which together are twice as large.

There are how many 767/A330-200/DC-10s operational out there? It's a lot...
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
StickShaker
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 9:35 pm

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 14):
Don't expect this industry will act like coke and pepsi competition, which has much smaller response time.

 checkmark 

Quoting N328KF (Reply 17):
In any case, consider that the engineering timeline looks like this:

[06--07--08--09--10--11--12--13--14--15--16]
[===A380===][=====A350======][=====NSR===>
[===787====][=====737RS=====][=====Y3====>

I understand this is engineering timeframes but I would have thought that with 4 787 models (including 787-10) the 787 timeline would stretch up until 2011/12.
Also tend to think Y3 will be somewhat later.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
They can focus on using the A358 to win the A333, A343, and 772A replacement markets which together are twice as large.

 checkmark 


Quoting EbbUK (Reply 4):
Boeing can do diddly squat to capitalise on the delays to the 350 and/or the 380 delays.

I think they will try hard with the 787-10 vs 359.

Boeing made a concious decision some 6/7 years ago to hand the VLA market to Airbus on a platter. The 748 may be good but it is an end of model niche and wont develop into a family as will the 380. This may not seem relevant now with all the 380 problems and 787 successes but Boeing really dont have a competing family to match the 380 family.


Cheers
StickShaker
 
parapente
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:31 pm

I have not read one convincing arguement as to what Airbus should or even can do. If it is true that the XWB is still not good enough, and must be made of carbon then there is nothing they can do-'cos they don't have the technology yet. If they did they would be stating it. There is no point in creating a "carbon copy" of the 787 - even if they could. They have to concentrate on getting the 380 right-and not "Tons" overweight. The design phase of the 787 is well over - its assembly time now. So what are the designers doing. We know- because they are releasing details of the BWB programme. But that is clearly and rightly a "slow burn" project (they are in the semi-unknown). So what is the major project that they are working on? The 737 replacement of course. Carbon of course. So what pray tell me can Airbus do about that? Oh I know an inferior AlLi product-I don't think so.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:35 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 20):
There are how many 767/A330-200/DC-10s operational out there? It's a lot...

Yes, and Airbus appears to be making a conscious decision to allow Boeing to reap the majority of the 767 and A332 replacement sales, which is why the 787 is closing on 500 orders and continues to build momentum.

The A358 and A359 are both options to replace the DC-10 and MD-11 markets. The 787-8 won't play there (though the 787-9 will).
 
474218
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:35 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
The A358 and A359 are both options to replace the DC-10 and MD-11 markets.

The DC-10/MD-11 market? Together there are less than 100 of these airframes still in passenger service. If Airbus wants to spend billions of euros to capture a 100 plane market I am sure Boeing would just love it.
 
redflyer
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Wed Nov 01, 2006 12:05 am

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 14):
Boeing won't react to all blips in the market. It's just a bad idea. Airplane market is a very small market and sluggish market. Boeing will not hire 5000 new engineers the next day after Airbus announces screw-ups.

I agree with what you say regarding airliner market dynamics, but I can't fathom how Airbus' current travails are a mere blip in the market. Airbus, by its own admission, is bogged down with the WhaleJet for up to the next four years and will be suffering from cash flow problems as well. Four years, by any standard or measure in any industry -- ok, maybe not tree growers  Wink -- is a long time.
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus A350 XWB Question

Wed Nov 01, 2006 2:42 am

Quoting 474218 (Reply 24):
The DC-10/MD-11 market? Together there are less than 100 of these airframes still in passenger service. If Airbus wants to spend billions of euros to capture a 100 plane market I am sure Boeing would just love it.

It's still 100 orders they can fight for, in addition to the hundreds and hundreds of 777, A330, and A340 replacement orders.  Smile

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 25):
I agree with what you say regarding airliner market dynamics, but I can't fathom how Airbus' current travails are a mere blip in the market.

They aren't, but neither are they the "200mph head-on crash into a cliff-wall" some folks make it out to be. Yes, Boeing could rush forward and try to build a new 787 production line and rush the 787-10 into market without the desired propulsion/payload/range advances but doing so may only expose them to the same problems Airbus is having.

I harbor little doubt Boeing would like to leverage Airbus' situation to their advantage, but they've been there in 1997 and they know they could be there in 2007 if they don't take care. And a prudent, deliberate path leading to a successful 787 launch and supplier ramp-up will allow them to improve their position in a controlled, rational manner.

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