redflyer
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A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 3:53 am

I keep seeing posts by A.Net members about the importance of Airbus devleoping the A389. Other than EK, which mentioned (off-the-cuff) a desire for the stretch model SIX years ago, has anyone else expressed a desire for the stretch? Does anyone REALLY believe with WhaleJet sales as slow as they are that somehow, by sheer magic, a stretch version will sell any better? Do people really think the true "sweet spot" in VLA demand is to leap over the 400 - 600 pax sized market and go straight to 650+ passengers?

I don't doubt there's a demand for an A389-sized aircraft. But beyond EK (do they still even want the plane in that size?), is there anyone else out there that would fly it even if there were no issues with EIS of the existing model?
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clickhappy
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 3:58 am

I disagree. I think the A389, and any other stretch, would really let the A380 come into its own.

Hopefully Airbus hasn't screwed up the A380 project so bad that we won't see a stretch.
 
UA777300ER
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 3:59 am

If the additional cost for developping the -900 is low enough to be covered by only a limitted number of orders, than demand doesn't need to be that high. Boeing has sold a couple of plane variants (747SP, 767-400ER, 757-300) that didn't sell very well, but could nevertheless be profitable.

I'm sure that Airbus did their homework before proposing the -900 to the airlines.
 
rpaillard
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:04 am

Hi,

You could Guy be sceptical, but such a statement is your opinion, nothing more. Do you have elements to elaborate ?

So basically ...

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
I don't doubt there's a demand for an A389-sized aircraft

But ...

"It will never sell".

Sounds like so far a contradiction for me.

Raphael
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hotelbravo
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:05 am

I believe an A389 would actually outsell the A388 if and when it became available. The A389 would have almost unbeatable CASM, provided it is fitted with the most up-to-date (ie Genx or later) engines. At the end of the day, any airline flying a 744 or A388 will be willing to take the jump to A389, as it will offer more payload capacity for the same operating economics and better CASM. That is my 2 cents. Of course, Airbus is not in a position to lauch the A389 any time soon, and they would be well-advised to make sure the A350 goes off as planned before sinking more resources into the A380.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:12 am

Quoting UA777300ER (Reply 2):
If the additional cost for developping the -900 is low enough to be covered by only a limitted number of orders, than demand doesn't need to be that high. Boeing has sold a couple of plane variants (747SP, 767-400ER, 757-300) that didn't sell very well, but could nevertheless be profitable.

This is true, but the question remains whether or not Airbus could get that many orders (I'd guess 40 to make it worthwhile). The cases you cited were all aircraft sized within the realm of experience, but an A389 would be bigger than big. Most of the A388 customers are putting in far fewer seats than the aircraft could accomodate, so I find it hard to see the demand for an even larger aircraft.
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UA777300ER
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:16 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 5):
This is true, but the question remains whether or not Airbus could get that many orders (I'd guess 40 to make it worthwhile). The cases you cited were all aircraft sized within the realm of experience, but an A389 would be bigger than big. Most of the A388 customers are putting in far fewer seats than the aircraft could accomodate, so I find it hard to see the demand for an even larger aircraft.

I was also thinking about 30-40 to break even. I don't know the exact break-down of the EK order, but I was under the impression that they wanted a big chunk of those to be -900's. If true, that would already be a big boost.

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Stitch
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:17 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
I don't doubt there's a demand for an A389-sized aircraft. But beyond EK, is there anyone else out there that would fly it even if there were no issues with EIS of the existing model?

Certain routes will undoubtedly support larger A380s. The A389 might very well offer the compelling CASM benefits the A388 was supposed to before the 748/A350/787 entered the picture and undermined it. It is conceivable that the entire A388 fleet would be updated to the A389 (which is what FX is hoping for to get plenty of "A388ACFs"). It would also allow them to upgauge to meet increasing traffic without having to add frequencies just as the A388 is letting them do so with their 744s.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 5):
The cases you cited were all aircraft sized within the realm of experience, but an A389 would be bigger than big. Most of the A388 customers are putting in far fewer seats than the aircraft could accomodate, so I find it hard to see the demand for an even larger aircraft.

Yet those premium cabins take up a great deal of space. If premium travel remains strong in terms of revenues, airlines would like to be able to add more of it while still keeping largish Premium and Standard Economy cabins to maximize RASM.
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:20 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
A380-900 Will Never Sell

Where's the question mark?


PH
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Alessandro
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:21 am

Depends on the track-record of the A388 I say, it´s saying back in 1970 the B744 wouldn´t sell because so few orders of the B741.
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kaneporta1
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:22 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Thread starter):
I keep seeing posts by A.Net members about the importance of Airbus devleoping the A389. Other than EK, which mentioned (off-the-cuff) a desire for the stretch model SIX years ago, has anyone else expressed a desire for the stretch? Does anyone REALLY believe with WhaleJet sales as slow as they are that somehow, by sheer magic, a stretch version will sell any better? Do people really think the true "sweet spot" in VLA demand is to leap over the 400 - 600 pax sized market and go straight to 650+ passengers?

I don't doubt there's a demand for an A389-sized aircraft. But beyond EK (do they still even want the plane in that size?), is there anyone else out there that would fly it even if there were no issues with EIS of the existing model?

Go back to 1969, and replace A380 with 747 in your post. Hindsight is such a great thing...
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Stitch
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:31 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 10):
Go back to 1969, and replace A380 with 747 in your post. Hindsight is such a great thing...

In 1969, no commercial airliner could fly anywhere near as far as the 747-100. Today, the 747-400, 747-8I, 777-300ER, 777-200LR, A340-500 and A340-600 will all get close or exceed the range of the A380-800.

In 1969, no commercial airliner offered anywhere near the CASM of the 747-100. Today, the 747-8I is expected to be as good or better and the 787 and A350 families are expected to exceed it by a good margin.

In 1969, no commercial airliner could carry anywhere near as many folks as the 747-100. That remains the case today with the A380-800, however the 747-8I is a lot closer to the A388 then the 707 and DC-8 were to the 741.
 
Rj111
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:34 am

It probably won't weigh (OEW) a lot more (relatively) than the A388 but it will have a lot more capacity. Similar to the A318/ A319 scenario - the difference being the A319 has a proven market.

It not as ridiculous an idea as you may think but i'd say it's too early to answer the question. Though a great time to ask it!
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:38 am

Quoting Hotelbravo (Reply 4):
A389 would have almost unbeatable CASM, provided it is fitted with the most up-to-date (ie Genx or later) engines. At the end of the day, any airline flying a 744 or A388 will be willing to take the jump to A389, as it will offer more payload capacity for the same operating economics and better CASM.

It would indeed have the lowest CASM ever, but the airline has to ask if it can fill all those seats without dilluting revenues.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
Yet those premium cabins take up a great deal of space. If premium travel remains strong in terms of revenues, airlines would like to be able to add more of it while still keeping largish Premium and Standard Economy cabins to maximize RASM.

True, but it seems to me that the A388 has that niche covered. Any airline that has unmet demand for premium seats would simply sacrifice some economy space. I'm not optimistic about the longterm economic outlook, which makes me skeptical about continued growth in premium demand.
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Stitch
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:41 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 13):
It would indeed have the lowest CASM ever, but the airline has to ask if it can fill all those seats without diluting revenues.

If total traffic continues to rise, the demand curve should support the larger plane just as it has the A388 vs. the 744/748 (for some customers).

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 13):
True, but it seems to me that the A388 has that niche covered. Any airline that has unmet demand for premium seats would simply sacrifice some economy space. I'm not optimistic about the long-term economic outlook, which makes me skeptical about continued growth in premium demand.

When each Business Class seat brings in close to 10x what an Economy seat brings in (per statements by the airlines), it's no wonder they keep spending hundreds of millions every few years rolling out new products to try and one-up each other.

But yes, if total demand starts to shrink, smaller planes would become more viable.
 
kaneporta1
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:43 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
.

1969...
Air travel demand was growing
The oil crisis was becoming a reality
Terrorism was on the uprise
Boeing came up with an airplane that so many thought it was excessive, and that would be as big as an airplane could get. But then it got bigger. And bigger.

20 years from now, the A389 will be necessary for plenty of airlines as demand for air travel grows bigger.
I'd rather die peacefully in my sleep, like my grandfather, not terrified and screaming, like his passengers
 
osiris30
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:46 am

Stitch:

 checkmark .. it's amazing how often those points are lost on the folks here. The 747's size was the last reason it was successful.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
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Stitch
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:46 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 15):
1969...
Air travel demand was growing
The oil crisis was becoming a reality
Terrorism was on the uprise
Boeing came up with an airplane that so many thought it was excessive, and that would be as big as an airplane could get. But then it got bigger. And bigger.

And then it started to get attacked from below, first by the DC-10 and L-1011 and later by the A340 and 777 and overall sales began to shrink.

I'm not arguing the A389 will not sell nor that it will not be necessary.

What I am arguing is that much of what made the 747-100 unique and special in 1969 does not apply to the A380-800 in 2009. And those "unique and special" things that directly contributed to strong 747 sales may very well not directly contribute to strong A380 sales. The A380 will need to create her own "unique and special" things to ensure strong sales.
 
zvezda
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:49 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 13):
It would indeed have the lowest CASM ever

Yes, it would.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 13):
but the airline has to ask if it can fill all those seats without dilluting revenues.

RASM would definitely drop on each and every possible route from the A380-800 to A380-900. The question the airlines will have to ask is not whether or not revenue would be diluted (it certainly would, as a consequence of the price elasticity of demand), but rather would the reduction in CASM exceed the reduction in RASM, with the increased market risk factored in.
 
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:54 am

The A380-800 is clearly too short and stubby for its wings, I am sure the CASM of a A380-900 will be spectacularly better, especially if they incorporate future technology (engines, lighter materials)
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supa7E7
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:54 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 15):
20 years from now, the A389 will be necessary for plenty of airlines as demand for air travel grows bigger.

Agreed. People tend to forget about India and China. The population of BOM for example, just huge. BOM-LHR is a huge market and will only grow.

PEK-CDG, same thing. Huge and will triple someday. PEK-NYC, we are talking quadruple in future years.

Today's A388 is reminiscent of the Boeing 741, an impressive bird that has not developed into its mature self (which were the 742 and especially 744).

Airbus knows how to refine their products. The A380 will be improved, lightened, enlarged, and probably repowered too.
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kaneporta1
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:57 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):
I'm not arguing the A389 will not sell nor that it will not be necessary.

The title of the initial post suggests otherwise (I know it was not you).
My point isn't that the A380 is special. My point is, like the 741 and the necessity to grow into the 748 in 35 years, the A380 will probably need to grow, to meet future air travel demand. Just like the 747 did.

[Edited 2006-10-30 20:58:58]
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redflyer
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:02 am

Quoting Rpaillard (Reply 3):
Sounds like so far a contradiction for me.

No contradiction. There's always a demand for ANYTHING. The issue is, does the demand reach the bar of becoming commercially viable? By way of example, right now my business has a need for a very specific and unusual software application. There are no COTS solutions currently available. Does that mean I wouldn't buy one if it became available? No, I most certainly would. But does that mean anyone who develops it will make money? Certainly not as there is only one company (mine) that has a need for it.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 8):
Where's the question mark?

Why is there a question mark needed? In my opinion, the stretch will never sell.

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 9):
it´s saying back in 1970 the B744 wouldn´t sell because so few orders of the B741.

By 1970, after only five years of sales, the 747 had accumulated 198 orders for the 747, and in an era when air traffic was about 1/4 of what it is today (try comparing that with the A380). Moreover, Boeing was already designing different variations in order to meet demand. The only factor was they had to wait for more powerful engines.

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 10):
Go back to 1969, and replace A380 with 747 in your post

By 1969, after only four years of sales, the 747 had accumulated 178 orders for the 747, and in an era when air traffic was about 1/4 of what it is today (try comparing that with the A380). Moreover, Boeing was already designing different variations in order to meet demand. The only factor was they had to wait for more powerful engines.

It's one thing to build expansion capability into your airframe. It's quite another for our esteemed A.Net brethren to tout, as they so often seem to do, "the A389 is the real plane that the A380 is meant to be" or "Airbus needs to develop the A389"...or some variation of those comments. The fact is, the world's airlines are not beating down Airbus' door to get their hands on the existing model. I doubt they will exert too much effort for the stretch version.

[edit: typo]

[Edited 2006-10-30 21:06:23]
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supa7E7
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:06 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 22):
"the A389 is the real plane that the A380 is meant to be"

Some of us believe exactly that. You could be right too. We'll just have to see.
"Who's to say spaceships aren't fine art?" - Phil Lesh
 
kaneporta1
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:09 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 22):
By 1969, after only four years of sales, the 747 had accumulated 178 orders for the 747, and in an era when air traffic was about 1/4 of what it is today (try comparing that with the A380). Moreover, Boeing was already designing different variations in order to meet demand.

And how exactly do you know that air travel today isn't 1/4 of what it will be in 2041?
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Stitch
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:09 am

Quoting Supa7E7 (Reply 20):
Agreed. People tend to forget about India and China. The population of BOM for example, just huge. BOM-LHR is a huge market and will only grow.

But must all Indians first fly to BOM? And must they all go to LHR to get to London?

I agree current Chinese and Indian "gateway hubs" will be big, but the sheer pressure could very well force them to create other "gateway hubs" and select other nearby airports (LGW and STN for LON).

Those that believe China and India will require hundreds of A389s between them to serve LHR don't seem to understand what 1000 A389s will do to LHR. You can only physically fit so many people in the terminal floorspace, ya know.  Smile

Quote:
Today's A388 is reminiscent of the Boeing 741, an impressive bird that has not developed into its mature self (which were the 742 and especially 744).

On that I agree completely.  checkmark 

Quote:
Airbus knows how to refine their products. The A380 will be improved, lightened, enlarged, and probably repowered too.

And I agree completely on that, as well, with the caveat that the market needs to be there to support it (which I believe is probable).

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 21):
My point is, like the 741 and the necessity to grow into the 748 in 35 years, the A380 will probably need to grow, to meet future air travel demand. Just like the 747 did.

On that I agree.  Smile
 
redflyer
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:10 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 15):
20 years from now, the A389 will be necessary for plenty of airlines as demand for air travel grows bigger.

20 years from now, when the the A380 will be 27 years old, it and its stretch will be obsolete (I'm not saying they won't be flying; just that their technology will be obsolete).

You don't build an airplane anticipating the market 27 years into the future. If hub-to-hub travel grows to such an extent that the A389 is in fact needed and in large enough numbers, I expect the competition will come out with real 21st century technology incorporated into a new VLA that will eviscerate the WhaleJet.
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PlaneHunter
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:14 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 22):
Why is there a question mark needed? In my opinion, the stretch will never sell.

The thread title suggests something else than simply an opinion.


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
redflyer
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:26 am

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 24):
And how exactly do you know that air travel today isn't 1/4 of what it will be in 2041?

If air travel is that huge in 2041 then I can assure you of two things: 1) we will not be traveling hub-to-hub as we know it today -- no hub airport could accommodate that kind of growth and the only way to accommodate that kind of air travel growth is to fragment it; and 2) the A380 and its stretch will long be obsolete (as I suspect the 748, 787, and XWB will be as well).

Don't confuse growth in travel with a requirement for bigger planes. There are other -- and much more efficient -- alternatives to packing as many passengers into a single airplane in order to accommodate growth.

And don't assume just because the 747 has been in production for almost 40 years that the A380 will as well. The 747 was singularly unique because of the times, the concept, and the technology. I don't think any product since or in the future, whether developed by Boeing or Airbus, will ever see that kind of production run.
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rpaillard
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:27 am

Hi RedFlyer,

I've got your point, but I don't think a stretch will be "very specific and unusual" plane, to stay on the analogy. And I truly have your point, as I work on IT/Software business  Wink

Regarding the size, we always tend to focus on more seats. Airlines shows us that there room for more comfort and even luxury on the sky. Just take a look at the last business class products. Now put that on perspective with the average Business Class product in the 80's. Emirates SkySuite is quite different! Don't get me wrong: we will hardly sea a full A380 in First/Business configuration soon!

The question should be "Is a stretch worth it", rather than "It will never sell". And as far as I've got your point correctly, that's also your opinion.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 22):
The issue is, does the demand reach the bar of becoming commercially viable?

Regarding sales, I think Airbus is doing fine, so far. I mean, three major delays, infrastructure to adapt and so on. Even with that, nobody so far left any options, and Qantas orders extra frames! That being said, Airlines are now waiting actual EIS to gauge the plane in real world. And that's a BIG reason to be conservative before purchase!

Regards,
Raphael
FLY SKYTEAM JETS
 
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mariner
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:34 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 28):
And don't assume just because the 747 has been in production for almost 40 years that the A380 will as well.

Assumptions abound on a.net, often based on static concepts.

But the British report on climate change is rocking the (non-US) aviation world. Even Air NZ is attacked for shipping kiwi fruit by air to Europe.

Sir Richard Branson has called a conference on how to address the issues raised.

One reason for the attack on airlines is the astonishing growth (non-US) of flights by LCC's to almost every town in Europe - the intention is somehow to reduce that number.

So if Europe does introduce a tax on flights, I wouldn't want to predict what will happen in ten years.

mariner
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redflyer
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:39 am

Quoting Rpaillard (Reply 29):
The question should be "Is a stretch worth it", rather than "It will never sell".

Actually, from what others on this forum with more insight have said, the A389 will not cost much to develop. And that is why I said the A380-900 will NOT sell. Sure, Airbus may build it, especially if it costs very little to develop. But who will buy it? But I get your point; although, I may not agree with it.

How could I agree with anyone who thinks there's so much to "feel" in Amboy, California???  Wink
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
leelaw
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:00 am

IMO, unless Mr. Sperl (Airbus CFO) can present a plausible business case whereby the projected IRR from the program is back over 20% (when the A380 was launched in 2000) from the current 13% (ten days ago), no minor alchemy, the EADS board will be hard-pressed to justify pouring additional resources into the extent financial black-hole of the WhaleBus(t) program.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Dougloid
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:15 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 31):
How could I agree with anyone who thinks there's so much to "feel" in Amboy, California???

I should think not. What you feel in Amboy is scorpions underfoot.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
supa7E7
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:16 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 30):
So if Europe does introduce a tax on flights, I wouldn't want to predict what will happen in ten years.

That kind of thing, putting taxes on Jet-A to pay for carbon credits and/or pollution damage, may increase demand for new jets.

If oil goes to $170/bbl, frequencies would drop. But aircraft size may grow.

Look at the recent past. Oil hikes were not all bad for Boeing + Airbus.
"Who's to say spaceships aren't fine art?" - Phil Lesh
 
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mariner
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:18 am

Quoting Supa7E7 (Reply 34):
If oil goes to $170/bbl, frequencies would drop. But aircraft size may grow.

Yes. That's exactly my point.

 Smile

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
rpaillard
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:21 am

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 33):
How could I agree with anyone who thinks there's so much to "feel" in Amboy, California???



Quoting Dougloid (Reply 33):
I should think not. What you feel in Amboy is scorpions underfoot

So you are Guys now ready to bash me regarding Amboy Big grin Big grin
Give me a break, that just the spirit of the west Big grin

Regards,
Raphael
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leelaw
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:28 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 30):
Sir Richard Branson has called a conference on how to address the issues raised.

...yet VS just deferred delivery of its 380s for another couple of years. You'd think he'd be doing everything in his power to reduce flight-frequencies ASAP?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:39 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
If total traffic continues to rise

That's THE big question. Between Global Climate Change and Peak Oil (take your pick!) I don't see the growth curve continuing upward indefinitely. raincloud 

Quoting Kaneporta1 (Reply 15):
20 years from now, the A389 will be necessary for plenty of airlines as demand for air travel grows bigger.

We hope. pray 

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 28):
Don't confuse growth in travel with a requirement for bigger planes. There are other -- and much more efficient -- alternatives to packing as many passengers into a single airplane in order to accommodate growth

Don't assume that all transport growth will be by air. As energy becomes more expensive, sea and rail become more attractive.

Quoting Supa7E7 (Reply 34):
If oil goes to $170/bbl, frequencies would drop. But aircraft size may grow.

Wishful thinking. As fuel becomes more expensive the cost of a ticket must rise, and fewer people will be able to afford it. That means smaller planes; not larger.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
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mariner
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:44 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 37):
...yet VS just deferred delivery of its 380s for another couple of years.

I suspect, unlike others I do not claim to know, that there is somewhat more to this than meets the eye. Then again, that decison was made before the report was released.

SRB obviously helped himself. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that the move "helped" Airbus with their delivery schedule. And that Airbus may be - in ways that we do not yet know - grateful

Or not.

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 37):
You'd think he'd be doing everything in his power to reduce flight-frequencies ASAP?

Like so many things, it may be part of an unfolding strategy. I am not inclined to rush to conclusions.

What I do know is this - the climate change report has caused consternation, not only among airlines but among governments.

Tiny example: the Prime Minsiter of New Zealand has accepted the basis of the overall report, but has come out strenuously in defense of Air New Zealand's transprt of kiwi fruit.  Smile

Australia, which, effectively, has no water because of the drought, is making elaborate plans to cope with a (non-sea) waterless future.

In the US, the report seems to have caused fewer ripples. Many other people/countries are deeply concerned.

I am sure of one thing - it will have an effect on (non US) civil aviation. I cannot guess what.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
jacobin777
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:50 am

Quoting Supa7E7 (Reply 34):
Look at the recent past.



Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 39):
Wishful thinking. As fuel becomes more expensive the cost of a ticket must rise, and fewer people will be able to afford it. That means smaller planes; not larger.

 checkmark ...exactly..the last thing the A380 (and the 747-8) can afford right now is a global synchronised recession....

Take a look at what happened after the "Asian contagion", "9/11", "SARS", etc..the bigger planes were the first to be parked...

Same thing during the oil embargo during the early-mid 1970's
"Up the Irons!"
 
TEAtheB
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:18 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 22):
By 1969, after only four years of sales, the 747 had accumulated 178 orders for the 747, and in an era when air traffic was about 1/4 of what it is today (try comparing that with the A380).

And the A380 has currently taken 159 orders and filled its production line for years to come. Obviously the A380 has got some problems but initial sales wasn't really one of them.
 
zvezda
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:26 am

Quoting TEAtheB (Reply 42):
And the A380 has currently taken 159 orders and filled its production line for years to come.

Plus 8 for QF and minus 6 for VS, neither of which have had quite all the Is dotted and Ts crossed yet, but both of which are clear.
 
ComeAndGo
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:48 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 28):
If air travel is that huge in 2041 then I can assure you of two things: 1) we will not be traveling hub-to-hub as we know it today -- no hub airport could accommodate that kind of growth and the only way to accommodate that kind of air travel growth is to fragment it;

…ever heard of increasing airport capacity ? If LHR ends up being too small they'll end up building a brand new airport designed for the traffic flow of the time.
 
art
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:54 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 13):
It would indeed have the lowest CASM ever, but the airline has to ask if it can fill all those seats without dilluting revenues.



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 18):
RASM would definitely drop on each and every possible route from the A380-800 to A380-900. The question the airlines will have to ask is not whether or not revenue would be diluted (it certainly would, as a consequence of the price elasticity of demand), but rather would the reduction in CASM exceed the reduction in RASM, with the increased market risk factored in.

I don't think dilution will come into it since I foresee a big demand developing over the next decade or so for lowest cost mass transit out of China and India to Europe and N America. The A389 would be the ideal tool for these budget tourist flights.
 
redflyer
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:54 am

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 43):
…ever heard of increasing airport capacity ?

Ever hear of EIR's (what they are called here in the U.S., not sure of their moniker in other lands)? Ever hear of environmentalists? Lawsuits? NIMBY? You read this morning about the feared clampdown on air travel because of its explosive growth and its increasing impact on global warming (nevermind the fact that it's only 3% of total pollution)?

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 43):
If LHR ends up being too small they'll end up building a brand new airport designed for the traffic flow of the time.

You're being sarcastic, right?
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
gabypn1992
Posts: 69
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:55 am

First, try to sell the 380-800, and after, you gonna see for the 380-900.
Fly With Me!!!
 
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mariner
Posts: 18169
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:10 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 45):
You read this morning about the feared clampdown on air travel because of its explosive growth and its increasing impact on global warming (nevermind the fact that it's only 3% of total pollution)?

Read more - from British PM Tony Blair - not a famous nimby:

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/this_britain/article1941280.ece

Or the New Zealand government - on kiwi fruit, in particular:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/story.cfm?c_id=1&ObjectID=10408414

Or - in the US - Forbes:

http://www.forbes.com/business/busin...feeds/ap/2006/10/30/ap3131083.html

Or Australia:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/...ding/2006/10/30/1162056921342.html

http://www.smh.com.au/news/environme...ming/2006/10/30/1162056926610.html

If you choose to think that it is not a problem, that's fine. But it doesn't matter.

What does matter is if people in power believe that it is true.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:16 am

Quoting Art (Reply 44):
I foresee a big demand developing over the next decade or so for lowest cost mass transit out of China and India to Europe and N America

The populations of India and China are huge, but the portion that is gaining sufficient affluence to afford long distance air travel is not so big as you imply.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 12388
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RE: A380-900 Will Never Sell

Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:38 am

There are calculated risks in considering production of the A380-900, just like any other aircraft.
To me there is less risk as to the -900 version if it a freighter.
The need for freighter space for all of the high value-density products already made and to be made in China and South Asia will be the main need for this version, especially as to limiting frequencies, slot limits at airports and so on.
As to the pax versions of the -900, there is greater risk.
Airports will remain choke points as to access for both aircraft and their pax in and out. Even if more flights are done on A380's including the -900 version, there is only so much capacity airports can handle. The price of oil will go up a lot in the next 20-30 years, so much so that it will price out a lot of middle class people and businesses from flying or at least as often, reducing overall demand. Terrorism, wars, epidemic diseases (like SARS a few years ago, the threat more recently of Bird flu), long term economic cycles and global warming affects will all affect demand for the -900 pax versions and possibly quite negatively.
I am not saying it 'will never sell' but especially the pax versions may bearly break-even for Airbus if it is made. Let us not forget the problems in the development and building of the prototypes and early production models that has ate up the time for it's EIS by now, taking away time for all of them to be economicly viable.

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