manni
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JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:46 pm

The chief at JAL has said it wont purchase the A380. No surprise here (eventough, think about 'never say never'), but to say this in public, wathever the reasons are behind his comment it sounds
like an incredible dumb thing to say in public. Unless JAL rules out the 748i aswell, or an order has already been placed for the 748i.

from the article,

The head of Japan Airlines Corp has ruled out buying Airbus A380 superjumbos because of the plane's delivery-delay woes and a plan by the carrier to reduce the size of its fleet, the Financial Times said.

JAL Chief Executive Haruka Nishimatsu told the newspaper in comments published on Tuesday: "The A380 is a completely controversial concept to the present aviation market.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

He's also commenting on the 787, seems like the aircraft is still as good as on schedule,...

from the article,

JAL had ordered 30 Boeing 787s, the first of which was due to be delivered in July 2008, it said.

"I met with the new president of Boeing last week and he said that the deliveries would be on time," Nishimatsu said.


"If there is a delay it should only be a month or two."


http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061031/3/2s48r.html
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jacobin777
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:54 pm

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
Unless JAL rules out the 748i aswell, or an order has already been placed for the 748i.

Here's a link which might answer your question..

"(Japanese)Airlines bid 747 farewell / Jumbo jets being phased out for smaller, economical plan"

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20061031TDY03003.htm

cheers..
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N328KF
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:55 pm

I think that a pattern can be discerned from this -- the compensation discounts given to A380 customers have made follow-on orders attractive. However, those carriers which were not locked in by contract (and thus do not have the benefit of penalty payments and launch pricing on options) may not find the financials quite as favorable for them, thus the lack of any major new orders in ages.

EDIT: added text in bold

[Edited 2006-10-31 07:05:16]
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ikramerica
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 3:01 pm

JAL is a huge 744 operator, but I don't see very many 748i in their future either. This was part of my argument against the A380 sales figure of 750. Some very large 747 carriers are not likely to buy the A380, and some won't even buy the 748i. And large 747F carriers look to be leaning to replacing those with 748F and 744BCF models going forward. Those are two blows to the A380 program, as they have to manufacture over 400 new VLA orders from carriers that don't exist yet or who aren't past VLA customers. How many EK like airlines will there be in the next 20 years? 7 or 8 more?

Possibly JAL could take 10 748i (or even A380s) later on, but the 747D program is dead and with airports in Japan ruling out 3 and 4 holers (despite how quiet some are...), it only encourages the 787/777 family more and more. Half of the demand from JL and NH for 747s was in the D market. Thus that isn't a market the 748 or the A380 can capture.

Now if Fuji or Mitsubishi is involved in the 350X, we might see that in the future. Which even points out further that Airbus would be wise to offer an A350X-300 version at A330-300 size and range for regional routes...

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
"If there is a delay it should only be a month or two."

This is pretty much the maximum delay one can expect if, at this stage, Boeing is still telling customers there will be no delay. Even small problems from here on out won't amount to more than a month or two.

It would take a massive problem like the A380 suffered to slip more than that. Which could still happen, but Boeing has the benefit of watching it unfold and realizing how dramatic a problem it is and how important it is to avoid it.
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bdl2stl2pvg
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 3:04 pm

I think that this is just what it appears to be. The chief of JAL is confirming their forward business plan / strategy. They will be getting away from VLA or Ultra-VLA and go more point to point. It is not a slam against the A380 but in fact a confirmation that their new business model just doesn't support the VLA. I do think that if they had any plan to go after the 748 then he would not have said this as it clearly lessens their negotiating power.
 
AA737-823
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 3:26 pm

I am an avid Boeing fan, but Nishimatsusan's comments caught my attention:
1. No delay.
2. Delay of a month or two maybe.


Hmmmm... piqued my curiosity.
 
ikramerica
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:02 pm

Quoting AA737-823 (Reply 7):
1. No delay.
2. Delay of a month or two maybe.

I translated that to mean: "we are being told of no projected delays at this time, so even if something were to crop up between now and 2008, as the head of JAL I am confident that it couldn't be more than a month or two."

Nobody in the airline business at this point wants to say that any future plane will be completely on time, not with the current climate. Everyone is parsing words carefully. So he must both assure the public that the plane is on schedule, but also that if there is a delay, it will be minor and won't materially affect their operations. This has to be said because investors are very nervous, seeing how drastically airlines like SQ, QF have had to alter their plans.
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aerosol
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:03 pm

I wonder where the representaives of "political decision" from the Lufthansa topics are!

Anyway - I hope to fly in a 747i/380 of JAL in the future.

It all depends on the economy - if there's a boom JAL will not be ableto fulfill demand.
 
ikramerica
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:07 pm

Quoting Aerosol (Reply 9):
Anyway - I hope to fly in a 747i/380 of JAL in the future.

I would too, but I don't see it for a long time.

Maybe one day, there will be 800 seat A380s flying Tokyo to Osaka. I'd sign up for that!
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Carpethead
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:37 pm

What difference does it make if the JL president announces they aren't interested in the A380 right now. They have enough problems as it is without worrying about A380 delivery delays, pilot issues, and a totally new type it will have to train up for.
First of all, JL is still bleeding red and continues to right size its capacity. More int'l route cuts or downgrading are ahead.

Frankly, its JL's way of saying go away Airbus. We ain't interested.  Wink
 
Thorben
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:43 pm

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
The head of Japan Airlines Corp has ruled out buying Airbus A380 superjumbos because of the plane's delivery-delay woes and a plan by the carrier to reduce the size of its fleet, the Financial Times said.

These are temporary reasons, it could look different in the future.

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
JAL Chief Executive Haruka Nishimatsu told the newspaper in comments published on Tuesday: "The A380 is a completely controversial concept to the present aviation market.

Good Boeing cheerleading. But then, the 747-8 is not? Ruling out the A380 is not good for a negotiating position for buying 747-8, it seems to me that JL doesn't want those, as well. But aren't they the biggest 747 operator in the world?

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
"I met with the new president of Boeing last week and he said that the deliveries would be on time," Nishimatsu said.

Another quote from the article
"The A380 has a much bigger problem than the (Boeing) 787 in terms of delivery."
So, the 787 has a problem, too?

Remember, the A380 didn't have problems before its first flight, either, who knows what will happen with the 787, after the first one is really complete. I read somewhere that they have weight issues, it started like that with the A380, too. Just a hint, Boeing, don't change the wiring too much.
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SimProgrammer
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:44 pm

The reasons for Japans airlines refusal to even consider an Airbus product strikes me as political than rational.
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ikramerica
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:10 pm

Quoting SimProgrammer (Reply 14):
The reasons for Japans airlines refusal to even consider an Airbus product strikes me as political than rational.

Whatever.

I assume that if WN said they have also ruled out the A380, that's political, too?

JL and NH may very well be done with VLA altogether. How is that political?
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Rj111
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:17 pm

I still wouldn't rule them out in the long term.
 
ikramerica
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:21 pm

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 16):

Neither would I. In 10 years, either might need a limited number. But not 30 to replace 30 744s. No way.
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Aither
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 6:22 pm

When you listen the statement, if i did not know from who it was i would have bet from Boeing. He was using exactly some typical Boeing words like the now famous point to point ideology. Since when let say Sapporo Tokyo or Tokyo Honolulu are not point to point routes ?

Some operators, and the most profitable ones/well managed, unlike JAL, did find an interest to buy the A380 on much smaller routes than JAL operates. If JAL cannot understand the benefit of using this aircraft, well they may learn the hard way when the A380 will enter into service in their direct competitor's fleet. They should also keep in mind that more and more japanese are less reluctant to fly non japanese carriers.
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keesje
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:19 pm

For me this an indication that JAL likely won't order the A380 soon.

In 5 yrs with NRT stuffed with non Japanese A380s, circumstances might change.

After denying any interest a few years ago ANA lately has explicitly mentioned the A380 as an option. ANA is already an Airbus customer.
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:29 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 19):
In 5 yrs with NRT stuffed with non Japanese A380s, circumstances might change.

Based on Airbus' current production schedule, there will only be around 100 WhaleJets flying in 5 years. How many of those will be "stuffed" into NRT at any given time?  wave 
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Thorben
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:45 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 20):
Based on Airbus' current production schedule, there will only be around 100 WhaleJets flying in 5 years. How many of those will be "stuffed" into NRT at any given time? wave

Almost every airline getting the A380 could use it to NRT. Imagine daily flights from AF, LH, SQ, QF, EK, EY, IT, KE, and TG. JL with a 77W would look pretty small, then.
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redflyer
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:49 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 21):
JL with a 77W would look pretty small, then.

Gee, you mean it really is all about size?  Wink
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airbuseric
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 7:50 pm

There is no good reason for JL to order the A380. They simply doesn't need them at all.

-on any international flights to US and Europe, the passenger figures are not that much, hence the operation of mainly B772 and B773 (Europe) and B744 (with large F/C class) on US routes.
-the A380 for domestic use? No way. As said before, more and more Japanese airports are banning the B747 (4 engine), so this will also be the case for A380's.
And JL is better offering many flights to the domestic key destinations so the customer is able to choose the best flight departure/arrival from it etc. JL can mix very well in seats with B762/763/772/773/AB6/M80/M90/734, so they should be able to use the most suitable a/c at all times.
With the large order of B737-800 and B787's, which will mainly be for domestic operations, this just rules out the A380 for the future.

B748i - also a NO. It's too big. Also a NO for cargo operations (JL opted to reconfigure the pax B744 to BCF type). The current fleet of B744 will get replaced by B772/773 and B787's. Just reducing in a/c size.

Really packed full JL Jumbojets with >450 seats is history soon.
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Aither
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:13 pm

Quoting Airbuseric (Reply 23):
on any international flights to US and Europe, the passenger figures are not that much, hence the operation of mainly B772 and B773 (Europe) and B744 (with large F/C class) on US routes.

Around 100 000 pax per month to the European capital not that much ?

Of course if you buy smaller aircraft, you will get less of that pie...

The bottom line is these guys just have no ambition. And in a competitive business, people retreating ultimately get busted.

Quoting Airbuseric (Reply 23):
And JL is better offering many flights to the domestic key destinations so the customer is able to choose the best flight departure/arrival from it etc.

For the domestic operations targeted by the A380s the schedules are already more than adequate.

Quoting Airbuseric (Reply 23):
the A380 for domestic use? No way. As said before, more and more Japanese airports are banning the B747 (4 engine), so this will also be the case for A380's.

That's a really stupid ban totally ignoring the benefits of modern aircraft. I really wonder the true reasons behind this.
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Thorben
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:27 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 15):
I assume that if WN said they have also ruled out the A380, that's political, too?

Is WN the world's largest 747 operator?

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 22):
Gee, you mean it really is all about size? Wink

In this case, with JL being a big international airline, it would be strange if they had way smaller planes then many others at their own home base.
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United Airline
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:33 pm

Maybe a strategy to attract a better deal for the A 380?

Seriously I see them going for the B 747-8 eventually. They can't keep on using smaller planes forever since a lot of their routes are always full. Not sure about the A 380
 
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:43 pm

There was something in the FT recently where they quote someone at JAL on their decision to use 777-300ER on the CDG routes in place of a 744. He said that while their overall costs increased by 1% their overall revenue from the flight increase by 10%. So, they make more money by carrying less passengers on a smaller plane. That is why they don't want the A380. They don't see that they will profitably be able to fill the seats. Makes sense to me, but maybe I'm missing something.
 
aerosol
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:58 pm

Quoting PVG (Reply 27):
There was something in the FT recently where they quote someone at JAL on their decision to use 777-300ER on the CDG routes in place of a 744. He said that while their overall costs increased by 1% their overall revenue from the flight increase by 10%.

How can they make more revenue on a smaler plane?
More 1st/business? More eco? (how is config?)
More cargo?
The amount of people does not change by changing the plane, does it?
That means one of the things mentioned above must always be fully booked and must have an increased cap. in the T7.

How can cost increase with a smaller plane?

I am confused? I would understand it if he'd said we need les to break even?
 
Rj111
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 9:00 pm

Quoting PVG (Reply 27):
There was something in the FT recently where they quote someone at JAL on their decision to use 777-300ER on the CDG routes in place of a 744. He said that while their overall costs increased by 1% their overall revenue from the flight increase by 10%. So, they make more money by carrying less passengers on a smaller plane. That is why they don't want the A380. They don't see that they will profitably be able to fill the seats. Makes sense to me, but maybe I'm missing something.

Are you sure it wasn't revenue decreased by 1% and costs decreased by 10%?

I don't understand how a smaller aircraft could bring in 10% more revenue. Unless that was through the 773ER's better cargo.

[Edited 2006-10-31 13:03:09]
 
spacecadet
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 9:54 pm

Quoting Airbuseric (Reply 23):
And JL is better offering many flights to the domestic key destinations so the customer is able to choose the best flight departure/arrival from it etc.

Last I checked, JAL flies HND-ITM *21 times* per day (plus return trips). That's with 777's and 747's, mostly, and they're mostly sold out. I don't know how many more times you want them to fly these busy routes.

That's not even counting NRT-ITM - probably add another 10 flights onto that.

This is not LGA-ORD. Japan is a whole different ballgame. A "busy route" in the US or Europe would be considered a road less traveled in Japan.

JAL's move to smaller aircraft means leaving passengers at the gate. There's no other way around it; they're going to be refusing a lot of passengers (they already are). Will ANA pick up the slack? Already, ANA has shot forward in popularity over the last few years and now carries basically the same number of passengers as JAL. One of these airlines is playing the other for a fool, waiting for their competitor to completely commit to their long-term strategy before pulling the rug out from under them with a big A380/748 order. The 748 is more likely but there is no doubt in my mind you will be seeing one of these planes flying in large numbers over Japan eventually.

No doubt smaller planes like the 787 are more profitable per passenger even on these high density routes. But that doesn't mean they're automatically more profitable overall if you can consistently fill a 550 seat 748, which itself has a lot of the fuel saving measures of the 787.

The alternative is for JR to add shinkansen service and for passengers to leave the airlines for the trains completely. You think either airline wants that?
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Aaron747
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:11 pm

^
Just a note, 747s are no longer used to ITM due to last April's ban on three and four-engined aircraft. The daily schedule is almost entirely 772s and 773s between both carriers.

The alternative is for JR to add shinkansen service and for passengers to leave the airlines for the trains completely.

This won't happen anytime soon. Existing rights of way are already packed to the gills as far as nozomi schedules are concerned and adding additional service is going to be difficult for the fully-privatized JR companies that are now accountable to stockholders.
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Aither
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:18 pm

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 29):
Are you sure it wasn't revenue decreased by 1% and costs decreased by 10%?

I don't understand how a smaller aircraft could bring in 10% more revenue. Unless that was through the 773ER's better cargo.

The revenue per seat is probably increasing. They're playing with revenue management. It's an old trick and it looks very good in the book... for the short term.

The problem is you spill demand, insatisfy it. You open a market for more competitors. So OK your profitability is increasing, but in that case why not create a full business airline ? the problem is they have to look at the big picture, not forgetting for example that business travellers are also often economy travellers. Therefore they may prefer to accumulate free miles on airlines offering good deals in economy class as well. There are lots of things to take into consideration and not just your immediate profitability. Swiss Air is a typical case study for that kind of strategy and ultimately they have downsized to zero.

[Edited 2006-10-31 14:22:53]
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Stitch
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:33 pm

Quoting Aerosol (Reply 28):
How can they make more revenue on a smaller
plane?

You better tailor to the "demand curve" by only offering enough seats to meet the demand of profitable passengers. So if you have 300 people who want to fly today on a fare that generates a profit for you, having a 300 seat plane is perfect. If you have a 400 seat plane, you then need to carry 100 additional people who want to fly today, but not at a profitable fare (in other words, the cost of flying them is more then the fare they paid). That eats into the overall profitability of your flight.

You could let the seats fly empty, but that would hurt profitability even more because those 100 people are providing at least some revenue.

Quote:
How can cost increase with a smaller plane?

Many costs are "fixed" and others don't vary dramatically between plane sizes. So having more seats on a larger plane allows you to spread those costs out greater, meaning the cost of flying each seat is lower on a 400-seat plane then a 300-seat one (in general).

"Revenue Management" is a delicate balance of using the largest plane possible to meet the demand of the profitable passengers while minimizing the number of unprofitable ones.

Quoting Aither (Reply 32):
The problem is you spill demand (by failing to) satisfy it. You open a market for more competitors.

However, if you shunt the least desirable (from a profit standpoint) passengers, your competition has to be able to make money off them otherwise they won't take them either (or won't be in business long after they do).

LCCs like WN and B6 thrived by having cost structures low enough that a passenger that couldn't make UA or AA money could make them money. Operating an A380 will offer lower CASM then a 773ER so it is possible SQ or EK could make money off those passengers JL sends their way. But will there be enough to fill the plane, or will they need to accept "loss leader" passengers to fill seats, dragging down the flight's overall profitability?
 
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airbuseric
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:44 pm

Quoting Aerosol (Reply 28):
Quoting PVG (Reply 27):
There was something in the FT recently where they quote someone at JAL on their decision to use 777-300ER on the CDG routes in place of a 744. He said that while their overall costs increased by 1% their overall revenue from the flight increase by 10%.

How can they make more revenue on a smaler plane?
More 1st/business? More eco? (how is config?)
More cargo?
The amount of people does not change by changing the plane, does it?
That means one of the things mentioned above must always be fully booked and must have an increased cap. in the T7.

B777's carry more cargo then B744 as the 777's are able to fly more pallets instead of containers (with JAL's configurations for the lowerdeck). So volumewise this is a big step forward, and will increase the revenue partly.

Config for the B772ER is C56Y212 (total 268). This is around 50 seats less then on JL 744's originally flown on many European destinations (providing such a big F and C class, but most of the times they weren't filled up).

For your info, B744 like JA8913 and JA8916 just provide 299 seats in total! That is less seats then on B773ER.

And of course the newer B777s are more fuel efficient then the B744.

So passenger loads are higher, cargo uplift is higher, fuel costs is lower. Of course this increases revenue.
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jfk777
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 10:45 pm

The only destination where 800 japanesse travel daily is Hawaii. Honolulu would be the only JAL destination for a whale. Would JAL buy a small number of A380 for oe route? I doubt it.
 
keesje
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:01 pm

Maybe we are missing the logic. If all the others (starting with AF, LH, SQ, QF, MH, EK) start flying their shiny A380s with japanese crews & lots of comfort into NRT, JAL probably won't need big aircraft anymore. No room for pride, just no need.

 expressionless 
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NYC777
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:07 pm

According to ATW there may be another delay of three months on the A380!!!

http://atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=6932

At least it's not another year.
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Thorben
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:07 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):
Maybe we are missing the logic. If all the others (starting with AF, LH, SQ, QF, MH, EK) start flying their shiny A380s with japanese crews & lots of comfort into NRT, JAL probably won't need big aircraft anymore. No room for pride, just no need.

No need, because nobody wants to fly T7 or 747, when you can fly A380? Considering how much more space people will have in the big one. Space is important on longer flights.
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eatmybologna
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:13 pm

Quoting Aerosol (Reply 28):
How can they make more revenue on a smaler plane?
More 1st/business? More eco? (how is config?)
More cargo?
The amount of people does not change by changing the plane, does it?
That means one of the things mentioned above must always be fully booked and must have an increased cap. in the T7.

How can cost increase with a smaller plane?

I am confused? I would understand it if he'd said we need les to break even?

Like Aither said (above in reply 29). They're playing with supply and demand. By creating a perception of scarcity of available seating, they can shift the supply curve left and the demand curve right , thereby creating a temporary change in consumer buying habits. Thus, they will be able to charge more per seat in the short term. Eventually, the market equilibrium point will change when competitors offer more attractive substitute alternatives (e.g. added value such as more comfortable seating, lower ticket prices).


Big version: Width: 320 Height: 275 File size: 15kb
basic supply and demand curve graph


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leelaw
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:14 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 33):
Maybe we are missing the logic.

I think not, here is the representational schematic of the "logic" in question:



 Silly
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Rj111
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:26 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
You better tailor to the "demand curve" by only offering enough seats to meet the demand of profitable passengers. So if you have 300 people who want to fly today on a fare that generates a profit for you, having a 300 seat plane is perfect. If you have a 400 seat plane, you then need to carry 100 additional people who want to fly today, but not at a profitable fare (in other words, the cost of flying them is more then the fare they paid). That eats into the overall profitability of your flight.

He's talking about revenue not profit. You're right, the argument is valid for profitability though.

Quoting Aither (Reply 29):
The revenue per seat is probably increasing. They're playing with revenue management. It's an old trick and it looks very good in the book... for the short term.

The RASM would increase but if you kept the price structure for the 773ER on the 744 you could do no worse revenue wise, you'd just be more profitable through reduced costs.

*Assuming the 744 has the same or more seats in all cabins and they're of equal standards.

Quoting Aither (Reply 29):
The problem is you spill demand, insatisfy it. You open a market for more competitors. So OK your profitability is increasing, but in that case why not create a full business airline ? the problem is they have to look at the big picture, not forgetting for example that business travellers are also often economy travellers. Therefore they may prefer to accumulate free miles on airlines offering good deals in economy class as well. There are lots of things to take into consideration and not just your immediate profitability. Swiss Air is a typical case study for that kind of strategy and ultimately they have downsized to zero.

Indeed, you have to be careful. Too much of a good thing and all.
 
PVG
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:36 pm

From WSJ Oct. 16th. Sorry, had it wrong, costs decreased 10%, revenue only decreased 1%. Also, it was frankfurt flights, not CDG. Knew that there was something about France in there though!

From the article:

Air France until recently operated two 747s daily from Paris to Tokyo's Narita, but it downsized to three smaller planes a day after receiving more landing "slots" on a new, short runway that can't handle jumbos.

But two of Air France's Tokyo flights are only 90 minutes apart and "don't give a big advantage" in drawing passengers, said Bruno Matheu, the carrier's head of marketing and network management. So Air France expects to replace the three Narita flights with two A380s, he said.

Japan Airlines, on the other hand, is trying to boost profit by shifting from 747s to smaller, more fuel-efficient Boeing 777s on most of its routes to Europe. On Frankfurt flights, switching planes has cut costs by around 10% but reduced revenue by only 1%, said spokesman Stephen Pearlman.
 
jacobin777
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Tue Oct 31, 2006 11:39 pm

Quoting Aither (Reply 15):
When you listen the statement, if i did not know from who it was i would have bet from Boeing. He was using exactly some typical Boeing words like the now famous point to point ideology. Since when let say Sapporo Tokyo or Tokyo Honolulu are not point to point routes ?

Maybe you didn't realise that its the opposite way...Boeing has seen trends in United States and Japanese Aviation..also, they have worked decades with the Japanese....they get great deals, etc.

The same thing goes with certain Airbus operators......what's the difference?

Quoting Thorben (Reply 35):
No need, because nobody wants to fly T7 or 747, when you can fly A380? Considering how much more space people will have in the big one. Space is important on longer flights.

Here's your answer Thorben ("quoting" Leelaw).........

"Up the Irons!"
 
scaledesigns
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Wed Nov 01, 2006 12:41 am

It striked me as funny that JAL is political because of the comments but LH
is not political...They are both partly political..And the A380 did have BIG production problems before its first flight.We just didnt know about it.Boeing is more straight forward with its customers than Airbus.I could see a small delay for the 787,but not a large one like the A380.Boeing would have already said something by now if it looked like any major delays.
AIRBUS SHOULD TAKE NOTE!
I am starting to think Airbus is more like a Renault than a BMW!!
 Wink
F1 Tommy
 
aerosol
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Wed Nov 01, 2006 12:49 am

Quoting PVG (Reply 39):
From WSJ Oct. 16th. Sorry, had it wrong, costs decreased 10%, revenue only decreased 1%. Also, it was frankfurt flights, not CDG. Knew that there was something about France in there though!

Makes sense now!
 
keesje
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:06 am

Quoting Scaledesigns (Reply 41):
We just didnt know about it.Boeing is more straight forward with its customers than Airbus. I could see a small delay for the 787,but not a large one like the A380.Boeing would have already said something by now if it looked like any major delays.
AIRBUS SHOULD TAKE NOTE!

I think Boeing is a closed book on the 787. Anything negative that comes out is denied, they only react on things that leak out when they have to.

Boeing & Openess ? No, I don't recognize that as part of their culture.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/262670_theinsider13.html

Leelaw, good one  bigthumbsup  however nothing mythical here & not that many folks wouldn't sense / understand symbols anyway  blockhead 
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
zvezda
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:20 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
I translated that to mean: "we are being told of no projected delays at this time, so even if something were to crop up between now and 2008, as the head of JAL I am confident that it couldn't be more than a month or two."

That's one way of reading it. Another way is: "we are being told that there are some issues with production that could cause a delay of a month or two, but that Boeing still hope to deliver on schedule."

Quoting Thorben (Reply 10):
Ruling out the A380 is not good for a negotiating position for buying 747-8, it seems to me that JL doesn't want those, as well. But aren't they the biggest 747 operator in the world?

Yes, JL are the biggest JumboJet operator in the world and they are replacing all of them with B787/B777s. This is a portent for the VLA market.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 10):
Remember, the A380 didn't have problems before its first flight, either, who knows what will happen with the 787, after the first one is really complete. I read somewhere that they have weight issues, it started like that with the A380, too. Just a hint, Boeing, don't change the wiring too much.

Boeing are allowing the airlines less customization with the B787 than with any other jet airliner.

Quoting Aither (Reply 15):
They should also keep in mind that more and more japanese are less reluctant to fly non japanese carriers.

This is a natural consequence of 1) increased travel, and 2) more Japanese people learning English.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 19):
Gee, you mean it really is all about size?

Some people are trying to compensate for something.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 18):
Almost every airline getting the A380 could use it to NRT.

Not when the ban on 3 and 4 engine flights goes into place. This is the trend in Japan.
 
eatmybologna
Posts: 375
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:22 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 43):
Boeing & Openess ? No, I don't recognize that as part of their culture.

I agree. Because the 787 manufacturing process involves trade secrets, Boeing must stay on top of information transfer in order to remain competitve.

From your linked article....
"We continue to see reports in the media related to the 747, 767, 777 and 787 programs that were clearly based on competitive-sensitive information given to media by some of our employees. This means Boeing information was improperly released, which carries the potential to harm our competiveness."

As far as maintaining the manufacturing schedule, however, I believe that Boeing is open and upfront, as directed by the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission.

E-M-B
Isn't knowledge more than just the acquisition of information? Shouldn't the acquired information be correct?
 
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Stitch
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:25 am

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 38):
He's talking about revenue not profit. You're right, the argument is valid for profitability though.

True, in that 400 passengers will provide more total revenue then 300 passengers will, but airlines most likely are more concerned with revenue per average seat mile (RASM) then total revenue per seat.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 43):
I think Boeing is a closed book on the 787. Anything negative that comes out is denied, they only react on things that leak out when they have to.

Sounds much like Airbus as of late, since they deny all the "insider leaks" until they have to announce them, as well. Both companies are transparent when they have to be, which is probably prudent since the investment market tends to punish companies that do well, but not as well as they expected them to do.
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:34 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 10):
Remember, the A380 didn't have problems before its first flight, either, who knows what will happen with the 787, after the first one is really complete.

I think a better way of stating this is that the A380 didn't have any announced problems until after the first flight. The manufacturing problems were there at first flight but they were undisclosed.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
eatmybologna
Posts: 375
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Wed Nov 01, 2006 1:43 am

Quoting Scaledesigns (Reply 41):
And the A380 did have BIG production problems before its first flight.

This is true. For example, I recall watching a fascinating episode on T.V. last year that covered the manufacture and assembly of the A380 super jumbo. In one portion of the show, the Toulouse workers could not piece together the German supplied rear tail fuselage section to the existing French fuselage section aft of the wings. The size of the seam/sleeve on the German section was claimed to have been 6mm (.236 inches) over tolerance. This struck me as odd considering the Germans are recognized as engineering specialists with exceptional control on precision manufacturing. Perhaps there was a communications breakdown with the technical specifications between the two manufacturing houses? (Catia5 vs Catia4)  scratchchin 

E-M-B
Isn't knowledge more than just the acquisition of information? Shouldn't the acquired information be correct?
 
flysherwood
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RE: JAL Chief Rules Out A380.

Wed Nov 01, 2006 2:04 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 22):
In this case, with JL being a big international airline, it would be strange if they had way smaller planes then many others at their own home base.

Who cares what the size of your aircraft is if you are making money? That is what being in business is all about. The only airlines who think like that are National Flag Carriers that are mostly owned by their respective governments. And only a bureaucrat worries about the size of their airplane and not the profitability.

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