manni
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B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 2:37 pm

"Boeing Co. may not see a substantial order for its new 747-8 passenger jumbo before the end of the year, even as Airbus delays deliveries of its competing A380, one of the U.S. planemaker's executives said on Tuesday."

Surprising. I would have tought that atleast some airline would show more than just an healty interest.

Did LH already signalled that it will not order 748i aircraft this year? Didn't they announce they would order new aircraft, likely before the end of the year, just as BA said?

"We potentially could have an order by the end of this year," said Dan Mooney, vice president of Boeing's 747 program, on a conference call on Tuesday. "But confident is probably too strong a word."

Confident a strong word? So even KE has still a long way to go before signing up?

----------------------------------------------------------------------

"We don't have a launch customer," said Mooney, despite "pretty broad" interest from airlines.




http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061031/3/2s5w1.html
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wjcandee
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 2:41 pm

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
Confident a strong word? So even KE has still a long way to go before signing up?

They're a public company. They have to be very careful and extremely accurate with public pronouncements about sales.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 2:52 pm

Indeed. What surprises me is CX. They were the odds-on favorite to launch the passenger version even when it was still the 747-Advanced.

They sure have been quiet lately...
 
Devilfish
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 2:58 pm

Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 1):

They're a public company. They have to be very careful and extremely accurate with public pronouncements about sales.

In contrast with another's rather cavalier treatment of its public and customers?
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
ikramerica
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:09 pm

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
"We potentially could have an order by the end of this year,"

With only 2 months left, sounds like they are saying "don't give up the ship, but the end of the year is coming fast..."

I think it really depends on when BA, KE and others publicly talk about their future plans. Right now, they are talking about making the decision by the end of the year, but that doesn't mean they will actually place those orders for any aircraft by the end of the year.

Other than some 737s, I can't think of any carrier who's going to buy a large number of any Boeing planes by the end of the year, really. Maybe a freight company signs on for 6-10 frames a couple more times.
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PanAm_DC10
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:19 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
I think it really depends on when BA, KE and others publicly talk about their future plans. Right now, they are talking about making the decision by the end of the year, but that doesn't mean they will actually place those orders for any aircraft by the end of the year.

 checkmark  I feel we could well see an announcement yet contract finalisation could well be held over until 2007

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
Other than some 737s, I can't think of any carrier who's going to buy a large number of any Boeing planes by the end of the year, really.

In my opinion we'll see many smaller orders confrimed that will add up to a larger number of signed orders by year end, in particular for the 777 series. It would not surprise me if we see the number of firm 777s doubled to over 50 by year end given TAM, China Southern, Emirates, GECAS or ILFC (for EK) and Air China. As for the 748-F or 787 there's a chance of some good orders out there but refer above about announcement and contract finalisation.

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monteycarlos
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:21 pm

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
Did LH already signalled that it will not order 748i aircraft this year? Didn't they announce they would order new aircraft, likely before the end of the year, just as BA said?

Perhaps they are simply not interested right now. And I am also guessing with news that Boeing is going ahead and lengthening the fuselage, most of the proposed customers are going to have to re-evaluate their intentions.

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
So even KE has still a long way to go before signing up?

It would seem so. You would probably pick them as being the lauch customer at this point however. They have shown the strongest interest and have always been a strong Boeing customer.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
With only 2 months left, sounds like they are saying "don't give up the ship, but the end of the year is coming fast..."

Exactly, and this time of year is traditionally the point of the year where airlines slow down their orders and focus on the figures. This plane will book orders but probably not yet.
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PhilSquares
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:24 pm

Please see this link for a more in-depth statement about the 748I. The original quote is somewhat misleading in that it's not the entire quote.

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=6950
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kaitak744
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:25 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 4):
Other than some 737s, I can't think of any carrier who's going to buy a large number of any Boeing planes by the end of the year, really. Maybe a freight company signs on for 6-10 frames a couple more times.

Many airlines have RFPs out as of now. Pending orders include: Lufthansa, British Airways, Aeroflot, Air France, Emirates, Thai Airways, Cathay Pacific, Japan Airlines (747-8), Philippines Airlines, and Singapore Air (at least 747-8F).

There are also the "if they had money, they would order" airlines:
American, Delta, and United.
 
Devilfish
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:37 pm

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 5):
or ILFC (for EK)

With Boeing refusing to rule out two fuselage lengths, EK remains a longshot for a yearend order.....

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...es+to+rule+out+two+lengths+of.html
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PanAm_DC10
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 4:09 pm

DEVILFISH, If I may my good man my point was in reference to the 777 series and not the 747-8 series in relation to the quote I referenced from Ikramecia.

Regards, PanAm_DC10
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columba
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 4:12 pm

Quoting Manni (Thread starter):
Did LH already signalled that it will not order 748i aircraft this year? Didn't they announce they would order new aircraft, likely before the end of the year, just as BA said?



Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 6):

Perhaps they are simply not interested right now. And I am also guessing with news that Boeing is going ahead and lengthening the fuselage, most of the proposed customers are going to have to re-evaluate their intentions.

I believe there are three options right now:
1) LH wants a package deal and will not place an order for the 747-8I before they have decided on the 787 and the A350. So this would mean no decision before spring 2007.

2) The package deal also includes cargo aircraft and they have not made a decision yet on what to take. The 777F or the 747-8F.

3) They still evaluating what suits their requirements best for a 747-400 replacement the 777-300ER or 747-8. For this option speaks this statement on Bloomberg two weeks ago:

Quoting Bloomberg:

A decision about buying Boeing's 747-8 is ''not affected'' by Airbus's plans (regarding the A350), Mayrhuber said. ''That's a different ballgame.'' The company's fleet manager, Nico Buchholz, said then that a decision would probably come in December. The carrier is also considering Boeing's 777-300ER model.
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manni
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:50 pm

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 3):
In contrast with another's rather cavalier treatment of its public and customers?

Not sure why you try to differt the attention to another company. This topic is about Boeing and the 748i.

Quoting Monteycarlos (Reply 6):
and this time of year is traditionally the point of the year where airlines slow down their orders and focus on the figures.

The sales that Airbus is announcing lately seem to suggest otherwise. Perhaps this might be the case for Boeing, altough I seen to remember that Boeing booked a lot of orders aswell towards the end of the year.

Quoting Columba (Reply 11):

I believe there are three options right now:

Perhaps there is a fourth option. The 748i is toast at LH, and just like QF and SQ, the options on the A380 will be converted.
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zvezda
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:06 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 12):
Perhaps there is a fourth option. The 748i is toast at LH, and just like QF and SQ, the options on the A380 will be converted.

I think this is the most likely option (or some blend of this and the others). An option exercise by LH is Airbus' best chance for selling more WhaleJets.
 
keesje
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:20 pm

As said in most other threads most 747-400 are not very old so do not need replacement soon.

Apart from that the industry is fragmenting so many routes will be picked by smaller aircraft like the 777/787 offering even lower CASM (which is decisive).

The niche market for >450 is pretty limited. It's a miracle Boeing is investing here.
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zvezda
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:42 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
As said in most other threads most 747-400 are not very old so do not need replacement soon.

Apart from that the industry is fragmenting so many routes will be picked by smaller aircraft like the 777/787 offering even lower CASM (which is decisive).

The niche market for >450 is pretty limited. It's a miracle Boeing is investing here.

I agree with all of this. I do want to ask you though: If it's a miracle that Boeing are investing as much as $2B on top of the already $2B invested to replace the JumboJet, is it not also a miracle that Airbus are investing about $20B in the VLA market?
 
monteycarlos
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:46 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 12):
The sales that Airbus is announcing lately seem to suggest otherwise. Perhaps this might be the case for Boeing, altough I seen to remember that Boeing booked a lot of orders aswell towards the end of the year.

Airbus is generally the exception to the rule. As I believe PanAm_DC10 pointed out in another thread, Airbus tend to announce orders much later in the year than say Boeing, Embraer and Bombardier.
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wingman
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:09 pm

Well, they have to see where Boeing is in Q4 and then shove Chirac on the train to Beijing with the magic number on a piece of paper.
 
leelaw
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:10 pm

This topic is the subject of James Wallace's "Aerospace Notebook" in today's Seattle PI:

No takers yet for the passenger 747-8

...Sources have told the Seattle P-I that Lufthansa could be the customer that kick-starts the flow of orders for the Intercontinental. The airline is considering a significant order for perhaps as many as 30 jets, the sources say.

In an interview with the P-I earlier this year, Wolfgang Mayrhuber, Lufthansa's chief executive, described the 747-8 Intercontinental as "an attractive" plane that the airline was "seriously" considering. It would replace older 747-400s in the Lufthansa fleet, he said.

Lufthansa, one of the customers for the 555-passenger Airbus A380, has indicated it will make a decision about its long-haul fleet requirements, including the 747-8, within the next few months...


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/290656_air01.html
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columba
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:20 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 12):
Perhaps there is a fourth option. The 748i is toast at LH, and just like QF and SQ, the options on the A380 will be converted.

I am following the LH deal very closely and from what I have read during the last few months coming from LH regarding the 747-400 replacement it seems to be only a race between the 777-300ER and the 747-8. Buchholz recently said that they are not planning to buy additional A380 from the 15 ordered in the near future.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
keesje
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:31 pm

James Wallace also tried to write Qantas into the 747-8
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/274668_air21.html

and Singapore Airlines to.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/266659_boeing14.html

James really believes in the 747-8 and most other (Boeing) aircraft for that matter.

Google is mercyless.
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leelaw
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:43 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 20):
James really believes in the 747-8 and most other (Boeing) aircraft for that matter.

Google is mercyless.

Gee Keesje, I wonder which one of you has a higher batting average over the years of "fanciful" insights which prove to be complete duds?

[Edited 2006-11-01 14:45:13]
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DAYflyer
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:48 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 19):
am following the LH deal very closely and from what I have read during the last few months coming from LH regarding the 747-400 replacement it seems to be only a race between the 777-300ER and the 747-8. Buchholz recently said that they are not planning to buy additional A380 from the 15 ordered in the near future.

An interesting insight. I bet they go with the 777 for most of this order and sprinkle in a few 747-8I.
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columba
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:01 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 22):
An interesting insight. I bet they go with the 777 for most of this order and sprinkle in a few 747-8I.

Don´t nail me on this one since I am no insider. It is only my assumption after reading the statements of high ranked LH officials during the last months.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
mptpa
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:08 pm

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 5):
contract finalisation could well be held over until 2007

It is not a bad idea to keep some heavy value orders into FY2007. I believe some carriers will announce the orders but will not be finalized till 2007. As is Boeing's practice, they do not announce as orders (into the books) till they are finalized.

Having said that, we can expect orders from KE, BA, LH and EK for B748i. Yes, EK... and Boeing will make the shorter frames if they go with say 30 as a launch customer. 30 @ $250M is substantial ($7B++)!! This is just my hunch.

What do you guys and gals think?
 
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Stitch
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:15 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 20):
James really believes in the 747-8 and most other (Boeing) aircraft for that matter.



Quoting Leelaw (Reply 21):
Gee Keesje, I wonder which one of you has a higher batting average over the years of "fanciful" insights which prove to be complete duds?  Smile

Well one of Mr. Wallace's 2001 articles about the 747-X that Keesje referred to did correctly predict KE, 5Y, NH, and others would order the freighter model (which became the 747-8F).  Smile

While I am on record as saying the 777-300ER is not an option at LH in the past, that might be changing if LH is leaning to the 787 family due to the A350 family not being available as soon as they want it. Such a decision could very well favor an additional A388 order as LH would get good pricing and could tailor the order directly to their needs at the top end of their 744 replacement program. Then they buy 777-300ERs for the bottom end and choose the 787-9 and 787-10 to replace their A333 and A343 fleets. LH's A346 fleet is large and new enough to keep flying in tandem with their 773ER fleet.
 
JAAlbert
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:23 pm

I think the topic title is somewhat misleading, suggesting that Boeing cannot find a launch customer. That is not what the article says. The article states that they may, but probably won't have a launch customer by year's end. However, Boeing believes 2/3 of the 748 orders will be for the passenger model. If (according to ATW) Boeing has already sold 44 freighter versions, Boeing is expressing confidence in a significantly larger number of passenger models and is quoted as such in the article.

Moreover, Boeing has not even firmed up the final design of the passenger aircraft yet. It is not surprising that airlines haven't signed on to a VLA that has not been firmed up yet.
 
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Stitch
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:28 pm

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 26):
I think the topic title is somewhat misleading, suggesting that Boeing cannot find a launch customer.

Well it is a direct quote, if a partial one.  Wink
 
manni
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:32 pm

Quoting Mptpa (Reply 24):
Having said that, we can expect orders from KE, BA, LH and EK for B748i.

Having just read the article in the link Leelaw provided, if the writer isn't living in his own world and the article is based on good research, I somehow doubt we will see orders from all these airlines.

EK is said to be interested in the shorter version (well they are talking a lot lately, arent't they) while BA and LH would opt for the longer version, that's if they'll go with the 748i. To please all of these airlines, for now, Boeing would need to build 2 different lenghts.

My best guess is KE, they've just about operated or ordered every widebody jet available from Boeing or Airbus since their existence, including the DC10/A300/MD11/A330/777/747/A380/787 (no 767 or A340).
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columba
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:43 pm

The article is very interesting I also find it interesting that it states that LH was one of the airlines pushing Boeing hard to make the Intercontinental as long as the freighter as it has been rumored before:

Quote:
Sources have told the Seattle P-I that Lufthansa could be the customer that kick-starts the flow of orders for the Intercontinental. The airline is considering a significant order for perhaps as many as 30 jets, the sources say.
...
Lufthansa was one of the airlines pushing Boeing hard to make the Intercontinental as long as the freighter so it could carry more passengers. That lowers the seat-mile costs.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
manni
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:43 pm

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 26):
I think the topic title is somewhat misleading, suggesting that Boeing cannot find a launch customer.

It doesn't suggest that. It suggest what is written, that they don't have a launch customer. There appear to be 3 units sold as private jets, but clearly Boeing doesn't consider these as launch customers. As the quote "We dont have a launch customer" is indeed a direct quote coming from Mr. Mooney, vice president of the 747 program. For completion, the whole quote would read "We dont have a launch customer despite pretty broad interest from airlines".
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trex8
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:05 am

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 26):
Moreover, Boeing has not even firmed up the final design of the passenger aircraft yet. It is not surprising that airlines haven't signed on to a VLA that has not been firmed up yet.

that didn't stop them launching the freighter whose design they only just firmed up! the real problem seems to be that their are two groups of airlines who are interested but they are interested in a different length aircraft!
 
NAV20
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:28 am

My own feeling is that we are all witnessing a very unusual 'crunch point.'

Given that US airlines are still strapped for cash, the main source of suitably-prestigious launch customers for the 748I has to be European airlines. And you can bet your boots that if the obvious candidates - BA, AF, LH - were to announce orders for Boeings, as opposed to Airbuses, in present cricumstances, with Airbus talking about job-losses etc., they'd be knee-deep in Parliamentary questions before you could say, "On a point of order, Mr. Speaker........."

Added to that, we have the now-usual 'war of words.' with some alrlines saying, "Never mind range, we want capacity," and others saying the opposite.

I suspect that Boeing have plenty of airlines who are saying, "Sure, we're more than interested; but it's just not politically-possible to say so at the moment. Be patient." After all, no-one (not even Boeing) could possibly have forecast, twelve months ago, that Airbus would be in as much trouble as it is.

My personal hope is that Boeing design the 748I for maximum range rather than extra capacity. AND sell some 748!s to Qantas. But that IS purely a personal wish. Even though I have family within a ten-dollar cab-ride of LAX, I yearn for the day when I can overfly LAX one way on my way to and from NYC, rather than having a massive Californian 'reunion' (while being drastically short of sleep) on both legs.......
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Leskova
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:37 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 32):
And you can bet your boots that if the obvious candidates - BA, AF, LH - were to announce orders for Boeings, as opposed to Airbuses, in present cricumstances, with Airbus talking about job-losses etc., they'd be knee-deep in Parliamentary questions before you could say, "On a point of order, Mr. Speaker........."

You know... that nonsense that you, and others, keep posting won't suddenly turn true just because you keep repeating it.
Smile - it confuses people!
 
elvis777
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:41 am

Hi Nav,

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 32):
My personal hope is that Boeing design the 748I for maximum range rather than extra capacity. AND sell some 748!s to Qantas. But that IS purely a personal wish. Even though I have family within a ten-dollar cab-ride of LAX, I yearn for the day when I can overfly LAX one way on my way to and from NYC, rather than having a massive Californian 'reunion' (while being drastically short of sleep) on both legs.......

Yeah I see your point, but there is still that untangible benefit of all those california blondes!!  Smile


Peace

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keesje
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:43 am

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 21):
Gee Keesje, I wonder which one of you has a higher batting average over the years of "fanciful" insights which prove to be complete duds?

Well if you do a good search you can find me:

- predicting the 787/A350 during the Sonic Cruiser era,
- announcing the A320 Enhanced 3 months before Leahy did,
- saying the 747-adv passenger should be stretched to be as long as the adv cargo, a year ago
- SQ getting 20 A330s a year ago,
- SQ / QF ordering additional A380s half a year ago

guess who jumped on my neck asking who the hell I think I was deflecting the running party line  Wink
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manni
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:51 am

Quoting Leskova (Reply 33):
You know... that nonsense that you, and others, keep posting won't suddenly turn true just because you keep repeating it.

 checkmark 

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 32):
Given that US airlines are still strapped for cash, the main source of suitably-prestigious launch customers for the 748I has to be European airlines.

Doubt it very much 3 of the 4 largest 747 operators (AF/KL, LH, VS) have already chosen the A380, while BA is on the brink of ordering the A380...

Changes to see US airlines operating the passenger variant of the 748 are as high as seeing them operating A380s.
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leelaw
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:55 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 35):

I didn't suggest that all of your "insights" were bogus, just most of them.  Smile
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ikramerica
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 12:56 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 8):
Many airlines have RFPs out as of now. Pending orders include: Lufthansa, British Airways, Aeroflot, Air France, Emirates, Thai Airways, Cathay Pacific, Japan Airlines (747-8), Philippines Airlines, and Singapore Air (at least 747-8F).

There are also the "if they had money, they would order" airlines:
American, Delta, and United.

But none will have deposit checks written and contracts sign by Christmas...

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 13):
I think this is the most likely option (or some blend of this and the others). An option exercise by LH is Airbus' best chance for selling more WhaleJets.

There is little doubt that LH and AF will take A380 follow ons.

Quoting Leskova (Reply 33):
You know... that nonsense that you, and others, keep posting won't suddenly turn true just because you keep repeating it.

No, only when Chirac and Merkel and the others repeat it.

Seriously, after all you've seen in the last few months, with the governments forcing in and out CEOs, pledging to get more involved, by stakes, etc., you don't believe there's any pressure on LH or AF (or even BA) regarding the A380 and 747?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:02 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 36):
while BA is on the brink of ordering the A380...

Given your complete koolaid for Airbus, I'm not surprised you brought up a misleading thread.. sarcastic 

However, at the very least, stop lying  liar ....BA aren't ordering any planes until they solve their pension deficit..not to mention , they have 777 slots which they will order first...also...if anything BA have said they are pushing for ordering the 747-8I....not the A380......

Get your facts straight....
"Up the Irons!"
 
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Stitch
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:04 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 32):
And you can bet your boots that if the obvious candidates - BA, AF, LH - were to announce orders for Boeings, as opposed to Airbuses, in present cricumstances, with Airbus talking about job-losses etc., they'd be knee-deep in Parliamentary questions before you could say, "On a point of order, Mr. Speaker........."

I suspect that Boeing have plenty of airlines who are saying, "Sure, we're more than interested; but it's just not politically-possible to say so at the moment. Be patient."

While I just can't come to accept that those airlines are being pressured by their MPs/députés/deputies, even if that is indeed the case, if they force those airlines to add to their A388 orders, then where does that leave the 748? Even if they split them down the middle, would a handful from each airline be enough to convince Boeing to launch the program? And would the economic benefits of such small 748I fleets be justified? And if the government did indeed force them to take more A388s, what is there to stop them forcing the airlines to take A346s instead of 748s to keep that line open?

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 32):
My personal hope is that Boeing design the 748I for maximum range rather than extra capacity.

It looks more and more like this just isn't practical when the 787LR and A350R will do it so much better economically and be better able to match demand and supply.
 
zvezda
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:17 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 36):
BA is on the brink of ordering the A380...

 liar 

Quoting Manni (Reply 36):
Changes to see US airlines operating the passenger variant of the 748 are as high as seeing them operating A380s.

No, the B747-8 SuperJumbo has been a much better chance among north american airlines than the WhaleJet, but both are vanishingly small.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 38):
There is little doubt that LH and AF will take A380 follow ons.

I have more doubts about AF ordering more WhaleJets than LH.
 
manni
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:20 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 39):
Given your complete koolaid for Airbus, I'm not surprised you brought up a misleading thread.

Nothing misleading about this thread, as already pointed out in a previous reply. If you can not handle, these sort of threads, take a deep breath and read the next thread. And while you're at it you might want to mail Mr. Mooney and tell him to shut his trap or else....
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PlaneHunter
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:21 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 32):
And you can bet your boots that if the obvious candidates - BA, AF, LH - were to announce orders for Boeings, as opposed to Airbuses, in present cricumstances, with Airbus talking about job-losses etc., they'd be knee-deep in Parliamentary questions before you could say, "On a point of order, Mr. Speaker........."

How much are you into German politics? I tell you it's absurd to believe LH managers would have to show up in the Kanzleramt to explain a Boeing order. It's probably different in other countries you mention. Lufthansa has been creating jobs regularly over the last years, just recently some 750 new jobs were announced. LH is one of Germany's most successful and respected companies - the media would crush the politicians who attack a private company for ordering an aircraft which is considered as most suitable.

Just some weeks ago a Bavarian minister suggested the Germans should simply buy more Siemens/BenQ mobile phones in order to save German jobs. The statement was widely considered as "amusing" (to say it diplomatically). Germans aren't patriots when it comes to consumer behavior.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 38):
There is little doubt that LH and AF will take A380 follow ons.

Why?

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 38):
No, only when Chirac and Merkel and the others repeat it.


Seriously, after all you've seen in the last few months, with the governments forcing in and out CEOs, pledging to get more involved, by stakes, etc., you don't believe there's any pressure on LH or AF (or even BA) regarding the A380 and 747?

Don't mix up Airbus/EADS with a company like LH. There has never been political pressure on LH when it comes to plane orders - and if there ever is, the media would jump on it. Also how could politicians threaten LH?


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
elvis777
Posts: 346
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:21 am

Hi Folks,

As to my previous post, I have been gently and courteously informed of an error.

Peace

Elvis777

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 34):
Yeah I see your point, but there is still that
intangible benefit of all those California blondes!! Smile
Leper,Unevolved, Misplaced and Unrepentant SportsFanatic and a ZOMBIE as well
 
manni
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:31 am

http://www.guardian.co.uk/airlines/s...,,1924841,00.html#article_continue

Wednesday October 18, 2006


British Airways is looking at the A380 aircraft as part of a £7bn overhaul of its long-haul fleet, despite delays to deliveries of the Airbus super plane.

"There is a certain logic to having the orders placed with one manufacturer because it eliminates a bit of complexity. But I would not rule out a mixed order," he said.

Mr Walsh said BA was confident that the A380 crisis would not affect any order. However, the airline expects to receive its first batch of new long-haul aircraft in early 2009, when Airbus will still be processing delayed bookings of the A380 including the first of six planes for Virgin Atlantic. Another potential BA long-haul order, the new mid-sized Airbus A350, will not be available until 2012 at the earliest.

"All of the problems will have been ironed out by the time we take delivery of any A380s," Mr Walsh said.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

No order yet. Note that I didn't claim they ordered the A380, but as you can read in this article, " ....by the time we take delivery of any A380s...", it's obviously being considered.
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columba
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:31 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 38):
There is little doubt that LH and AF will take A380 follow ons.



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 41):
I have more doubts about AF ordering more WhaleJets than LH.



Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 43):
There is little doubt that LH and AF will take A380 follow ons.
Why?

This is what Lufthansa´s fleet manager has to say about that matter:

Quoting Bloomerberg September 21st:

The carrier is considering Airbus's proposed A350XWB airliner and Boeing Co.'s 747-800, 787 and 777-300ER models Nico Buchholz, Lufthansa's fleet manager, said in an interview in Frankfurt today. The airline will stick with an order for 15 Airbus A380s, whose delivery has been delayed, without seeking to buy any more, he said......''The current order covers us well'' in absorbing the setback, and Lufthansa won't reduce or cancel its A380 contract, Buchholz said.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
NAV20
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 1:33 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40):
While I just can't come to accept that those airlines are being pressured by their MPs/d?t?deputies, even if that is indeed the case, if they force those airlines to add to their A388 orders, then where does that leave the 748?

Fair point, Stitch, except that Boeing don't HAVE to sell any 748Is. Freighter sales alone look like paying for the 748's development cost, and it's already clear that the 'death' of the A350XWB is fuelling a sales boom for the 777ER.

In over 20 years in competitive business I never had an opportunity on anything like the scale of the one Boeing is looking at. Those lucky B******Ds......  Smile

As to pressure from MPs, you can expect that to evaporate shortly. It's becoming clear that the Merkel Government's strategy - try to persuade the private sector to bail out Airbus - has fallen at the first fence. No private sector bank in its right mind would put money into a dead cat like Airbus at the present moment, short of watertight government guarantees:-

"The newspaper said individual banks were ready to help Merkel finance a deal that would keep a 7.5% EADS stake in German hands, but were risk-averse and hesitant to buy the stake for their own portfolios."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...EC0-4C66-4973-BCC1-205491DAD110%7D
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 2:04 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 47):
As to pressure from MPs, you can expect that to evaporate shortly. It's becoming clear that the Merkel Government's strategy - try to persuade the private sector to bail out Airbus - has fallen at the first fence. No private sector bank in its right mind would put money into a dead cat like Airbus at the present moment, short of watertight government guarantees:-

Sorry, but there would most certainly be investors willing to buy junkbonds in Airbus or EADS. Sell them at auction, someone will buy, though EADS might be disappointed with the price.
 
StuckInCA
Posts: 1618
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RE: B On 748i "We Dont Have A Launch Customer".

Thu Nov 02, 2006 2:04 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 12):
Not sure why you try to differt the attention to another company



Quoting Manni (Reply 12):
The sales that Airbus is

Pretty ironic to have both statements in the same post.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 35):
Well if you do a good search you can find me:
- predicting the 787/A350 during the Sonic Cruiser era,
- announcing the A320 Enhanced 3 months before Leahy did,
- saying the 747-adv passenger should be stretched to be as long as the adv cargo, a year ago
- SQ getting 20 A330s a year ago,
- SQ / QF ordering additional A380s half a year ago

guess who jumped on my neck asking who the hell I think I was deflecting the running party line Wink

And, if I do a good search I can find you starting a whole thread with the title:
"Airbus Poised to Thrash Boeing 2004 - 2009" (Nov 5, 2004)
So I guess at least you're wrong once in a while.