AI
Topic Author
Posts: 253
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 7:13 pm

Help With Website For Predicting Aircraft Crash.

Sun Nov 05, 2006 6:53 am

hi guys,
in early 2001 i had come across a website where you had to enter your routing, date & the airline you were flying with & it would come up with a predicted probability of your flight crashing.
i am not sure how very scientific it was (probably not a lot) but nevertheless i did find it interesting. i dont remember the name of that website nor can i find it on searching various engines.
has anyone here come across something similar ?

AI.
 
Cadet57
Posts: 7174
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:02 am

RE: Help With Website For Predicting Aircraft Crash.

Sun Nov 05, 2006 6:57 am

Why would you even want to see this site? Let alone take anything it says for fact? I guarntee you you plug in Nigeria and got get "You will die in a overloaded 737" but if you plug in Canada you get "You will be ok mate"
Doors open, right hand side, next stop is Springfield.
 
redflyer
Posts: 3882
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2005 3:30 am

RE: Help With Website For Predicting Aircraft Crash.

Sun Nov 05, 2006 7:11 am

Quoting AI (Thread starter):
it would come up with a predicted probability of your flight crashing.

Are you paranoid or do you just have an obsession with death?  Wink
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
AI
Topic Author
Posts: 253
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 7:13 pm

RE: Help With Website For Predicting Aircraft Crash.

Sun Nov 05, 2006 7:15 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 2):

neither. i just happened to stumble upon that website & as i mentioned in my original post i dont think its very scientifically based & i wouldnt base any travel decision on the number that website gives me (i havent even visited that website for last 5 years - which is why i cant remember the name ).

AI.
 
rootsair
Posts: 4012
Joined: Sun Feb 06, 2005 3:25 am

RE: Help With Website For Predicting Aircraft Crash.

Sun Nov 05, 2006 7:17 am

Quoting AI (Reply 3):
e (i havent even visited that website for last 5 years - which is why i cant remember the name ).

i have ehard abut that website. i asled this question a while ago and the website seems to have disappeared
A man without the knowledge of his past history,culture and origins is like a tree without roots
 
BAxMAN
Posts: 654
Joined: Fri May 28, 2004 7:51 am

RE: Help With Website For Predicting Aircraft Crash.

Sun Nov 05, 2006 7:21 am

The website you were looking for is 'am i going down.com' (no, not that kind of 'going down'). You selected your dates, airline and route and would then tell you that you had a 99.7675% (or whatever) chance of disappearing from the radar.

Unfortunately, it now seems to have very much gone down unless there is an alternative URL somewhere.

Whether the website was scientific or not, it was incredibly accurate. It correctly worked out that none of the flights I was scheduled to take were destined to end up in the middle of the Atlantic or strewn in many bits across a field.
I need to get laid
 
User avatar
Buyantukhaa
Posts: 2303
Joined: Thu May 13, 2004 5:33 am

RE: Help With Website For Predicting Aircraft Crash.

Sun Nov 05, 2006 12:29 pm

Quoting AI (Thread starter):
i dont remember the name of that website

www.amigoingdown.com, but it no longer exists.

I tried to figure out how it worked, it would look at the statistics per type, airline, country and I think also month of the year (not sure about that one). These would all affect the outcome independently.

So I played around and, if my memory serves me right, it said that if I flew from Quito to Lima in a Nigerian Airlines Tu134 in November (or something along those lines) my likelihood of crashing was about 1:32.000, whereas if I'd fly from Reykjavik to Akureyri in a Finnair A330 in June, my chances of dying were 1:250.000.000.

Not sure anymore about the parameters but quite sure these were the most extreme outcomes I managed to get. Generally, and certainly with realistic input data, it would seem very accurate though. If it wasn't sure (due to lack of data) it would hover around 1:1.000.000 in general.

Quoting BAxMAN (Reply 5):
It correctly worked out that none of the flights I was scheduled to take were destined to end up in the middle of the Atlantic or strewn in many bits across a field.

:D gotta love those ex-post analyses!!!
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
jwenting
Posts: 9973
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2001 10:12 pm

RE: Help With Website For Predicting Aircraft Crash.

Sun Nov 05, 2006 7:13 pm

Of course on a likelihood of 1:1.000.000 a factor 10 isn't going to register much.
Calling the site accurate in such situations is a farce, they might as well always give a random because if you survive you'll think they were right and if you crash and die you're not going to be able to complain  Smile
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