kaitak
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20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 4:01 am

Welcome on board everyone and here's a new Irish Aviation Thread.

Things are happening pretty quickly now and the virtual concession of defeat by Ryanair makes life particularly interesting, particularly because Aer Lingus has come out of it quite well. Indeed, it may well come to be seen as a significant error in FR's strategy. Is this it? Could he not have seen this in advance and while he harrumphs and blusters, the truth of the matter is that his plan has failed. What next? Just being a minority shareholder. Aer Lingus can even use that to its advantage and it can USE FR to get better deals and hopefully, to work with it to some extent in developing its long haul routes. I may be wrong in this, but I cannot see how this position can be seen as a plus for FR. They've spent €300m on a 20% (roughly) stake in a significant competitor and not only can they not sell without a loss, but they can't compete as aggressively as they might without endangering that stake.

The other issues mosey on pretty much as usual with not much happening:
- Still no word on Open Skies or the US approach to foreign ownership; however, I suspect today's events in the US might colour this, in that if the Democrats take control of the House, that could make life a lot harder. They may put the brakes on Open Skies altogether. What then for EI and increased US access?
- Dublin Airport; rumours of major cargo developments, but not much evidence of action.
- Environmental issues; how will the Irish govt seek to balance the gains from aviation against the environmental threat; will we see the Greens and other environmental groups making this a significant issue?
- Any Other Business?

So, here we go folks; Flaps 20, brakes released and throttles to the firewall ...
 
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N328KF
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 4:13 am

I don't see where Ryanair conceded defeat. They were rebuffed by Aer Lingus' board, but where is the actual concession speech?
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 4:27 am

For the fun of it, I pulled the H1 2007 numbers of FR. While his costs are going up, his profit is too. Even with the E250 he put into EI, he has more than made it up in H1 profits.


Half Year Ended -----Sept 30, 2005----- Sept 30,2006 -------% Increase
Passengers -------------- 18.0m---------------------22.1m-------------23%
Revenue------------------ €946.2m ---------------€1,256.4m------------33%
Profit after Tax ---------- €237m ---------------- €329m---------------39%

    Staff costs have increased by 36% to €113.8m. This primarily reflects a 31% increase in average employee numbers to 3,768 and the impact of pay increases granted during the period. Employee numbers rose due to an increase in our aircraft crewing ratios as a result of continued increases in sector length. Pilots, who earn higher than the average salary, accounted for 42% of the increase in employment during the period.


Quoting Kaitak (Reply 126):
In fairness, I doubt very much if all of these extra people are "filing clerks"?!

I was only repeating the words of MOL. They are GA employees, however, whatever their title.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 126):
BUT the one thing EI has in its favour right now is that it has a €300m insurance policy which FR has kindly taken out on them. I

I didn't know that! When did FR get into the insurance business? And if you are thinking of the money MOL invested in EI, it is about E 250 million. He has 103 Million shares at an average of E2.43. However, he still makes money if the stock is at E 2.44. I do not see that being an insurance policy for anything -- except MOL having a basis for a later take over bid. What you are missing is MOL can let what happens happen, and then take it over.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 126):

MO'L meanwhile has announced - as reported in the Sydney Morning Herald (strewth!) that Aer Lingus is doomed and that in five years' time it will still be a small regional carrier carrying 8m pax, while FR is carrying 80m. Here it is anyway ...

MOL is such an optimist. Must be the money he has put into EI causing him to see such rosy numbers. As an independent airline, EI will go down for the count unless there is a massive restructuring, which SIPTU will not allow.

As for reaching 80 million PAX, FR is on that run rate and then some.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 126):
We may see MO'L as entertaining in his comments, but not all Europeans share our sense of humour and his often direct and tactless comments may end up only spurring those opponents of aviation into action.

While I too find MOL as annoying, may I point out that they are still lining up to fly on his airplanes in every increasing numbers.

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
Aer Lingus can even use that to its advantage and it can USE FR to get better deals and hopefully, to work with it to some extent in developing its long haul routes.

Why do you think this? MOL could just as easily sit down and smile, which is what I think he will do. DM has well and truly cooked his goose with MOL, and MOL will try to oust him. Although he has only 20% of the stock, he does have 20% of the stock and so will end up with a board seat.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
kaitak
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 5:01 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 2):
Why do you think this? MOL could just as easily sit down and smile, which is what I think he will do. DM has well and truly cooked his goose with MOL, and MOL will try to oust him. Although he has only 20% of the stock, he does have 20% of the stock and so will end up with a board seat.

He could, but he's a shareholder; he wants to see the value of his shareholding increase. Why should he sit down and sit back; if he's spent this amount of money, why not make it work. If SF and the DUP can work together, so can DM and MO'L and FR/EI; sure, DM said in the past that he can conceive of no situation where the airlines would work together, he was at pains not to get into any personal invective or offence and MO'L has paid tribute to EI's management too - albeit obliquely, so I think the door is not closed. Both are in business at the end of the day; if I told you last week that BE and BA would work together or indeed, that many unlikely alliances would come to pass, you mightn't have believed it before, but at the end of the day, pride doesn't and can't come into it. If there is a logic to working together, both men and both airlines will be sufficiently mature to make it happen.

I do agree, to a certain extent, with what MO'L is saying, in that EI does need to change its ways, but it has in the past - far more dramatically than it needs to now and I think, ultimately, that its employees know it needs to change. There are undoubtedly challenges for both airlines, but I think there is room for EI to grow and of course, there's lots of room for FR to do so. I think that the FR shareholding in EI makes it less likely that FR will (as I had feared in the past) hound EI at every step, route by route and that has to be good for EI. MO'L has a lot more markets to make life difficult for other, far more bloated, EU state carriers, such as AZ, OA, IB, SK etc.

As for t/a routes, let's just assume for a moment that EI did place an order with Boeing (or Airbus) for a large fleet of new long haulers, but didn't work with FR and FR could prove that, had it done so, it could have made major savings, particularly if it ordered a larger number. What, additionally, if EI, because its vision isn't quite what FR's is, does not take full advantage of the whole O/S issue? What happens then; it's not just MO'L who'll be screaming; it will be the other s/holders too, including (potentially) the govt. So, in that sense, it makes sense for both airlines (at the very least) not to close the door to working together ...
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 5:40 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 3):
He could, but he's a shareholder; he wants to see the value of his shareholding increase. Why should he sit down and sit back; if he's spent this amount of money, why not make it work.



Quoting Kaitak (Reply 3):
sure, DM said in the past that he can conceive of no situation where the airlines would work together, he was at pains not to get into any personal invective or offence and MO'L has paid tribute to EI's management too - albeit obliquely, so I think the door is not closed.

Ah, Kaitak, and I thought you were trained the law, finance, and lived out on Jersey with all the money launderers.

May I seriously suggest that you obtain and then carefully read a copy of The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli. While out of print, you can obtain used copies from several dealers through Amazon.co.uk.
This a direct link to the listing:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Prince-Class...17/ref=sr_11_1/026-4222307-4265219

The ISBN is 0140441077

You do not seem to understand MOL, and perhaps Nicky will sort it out for you. This is about power and control, not making an extra two points on your old age investments.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
kaitak
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:07 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 4):
You do not seem to understand MOL, and perhaps Nicky will sort it out for you. This is about power and control, not making an extra two points on your old age investments.

I've read a bit of it; my well-thumbed version is lost somewhere in my room, but I remember him saying that it's better to be feared than loved. I know there are applications in the 20th century, but the reality for MO'L is that he's stuck. Maybe, over time, there is a way out, but for the moment, he just has to sit tight and make his investment work as best he can. There are other fish to fry. Sure, he can rant and rave and come over all aggressive, but what exactly does that achieve. I have no doubt that he'll give EI management a rough ride and his silver tongue will lacerate unions and others who cross his path (and I certainly wouldn't want to do business with him), but in the final analysis, he has to make the situation he's in work as well as possible for him - however much he may like it.

And remember that, however hard he makes the EI AGM for its management, there'll be people wanting to make the FR AGM just as uncomfortable for him. If I were an FR shareholder, I'd be pretty miffed. Remember what he said at the beginning? We have $2bn (?) in cash earning interest at around 3%; it makes sense to invest in EI. Now, he has $250-300m less and invested in a major competitor which can't be sold and which, if he competes against them at full throttle, will put that investment at risk. So, how is this better than leaving it in the bank in the first place? Maybe I'm missing something fundamental, but I still see this whole project as a big mistake for FR, but a very good position for EI to be in ... For now.

I'm sure I don't understand him completely, but I'm wondering if it's wise to think of him as someone who seeks power and control at all costs?
 
jwmd123
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:45 am

Although they do not have approval to fly yet, the visionair website states that they begin to fly dec 06.

Is that not cutting it very fine seeing as though legally they cannot sell tickets until they have approval to fly.

I also had to laugh at MOL's comments regarding the new BINGO venture FR are starting. He said in the future we may see 'The captains calling out the numbers'

Could you imagine it:

"ladies and gentlemen we are currently reaching our flying altitude of 19000ft and the next number is two little ducks ----22"!!!!!!!!!
 
EI321
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:55 am

What the hell is the deal with visionair, not a single press release, ad, etc. Although they cant sell tickets themselves without an Irish AOC, its quite possible that visionair are intending to operate this as a booking agent, and another party will operate the aircraft on their behalf (think jetgreen).
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:57 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 6):
but I remember him saying that it's better to be feared than loved.

Or hated. That is the key. If you are hated, they will throw themselves on your sword just to get at you. MOL has certainly come very close to doing that if some of the comments on this forum are any indication.

However, MOL has apparently been getting good advice and is now playing the nice little boy, hoping we will not notice. That is why I said I now believe he is will sit there and say "WHO ME?" MOI? BUT I TRIED TO GET THEM TO UNDERSTAND! I TRIED TO HELP! I EVEN KEPT FR OFF OF EI ADDITIONAL ROUTES!"

DM on the other hand seems to be loosing it. He is making rash statements to the press and taking a very hard position. I am sure that in MOL's eyes, there can be no compromise with DM, so DM will have to go. From what I can see, DM is flying EI into the ground. He is increasing frequencies on routes and not starting new routes. And MOL sees this.

In addition, the little duckies such as AA, DL, CO, US, RE, Flybe and all the others are nimbling away at the EI routes. The EI cost structure is a serious problem as my previous posts show and it will not take long before the all important average load factor goes to under 75% and bang! Red Ink.

Also remember that EI use to be a privately held company and could pretty much do what it wanted with regard to reporting. Now it is a publicly traded company and so it must be much more transparent in its reporting. I am waiting for the first one from EI issued under ISE rules.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 6):
I'm sure I don't understand him completely, but I'm wondering if it's wise to think of him as someone who seeks power and control at all costs?

He wants EI and he is going to get it, but not at all costs. He could have bought for E$3.50 a share. He is not stupid. All he has to do is wait, let DM continue to make testicular decisions and trip up on his pego.

You are quite wrong to say FR was defeated. All we saw was round one. MOL will take a different approach and in the end I am sure that ESOP Trust will loose big time. You comment about paying E1.30 may just come about.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 6):
If I were an FR shareholder, I'd be pretty miffed. Remember what he said at the beginning? We have $2bn (?) in cash earning interest at around 3%; it makes sense to invest in EI.

People are so angry with MOL that they are lining up to get on his airplanes and buy FR stock. Today FR closed at E9.43, and all time high.

http://www.ise.ie/app/equityHGraph.asp?INSTRUMENT_ID=12724

Don't expect any FR board room coup d'états anytime soon. MOL is going nowhere he doesn't want to go.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 7:04 am

Quoting JWMD123 (Reply 7):
I also had to laugh at MOL's comments regarding the new BINGO venture FR are starting. He said in the future we may see 'The captains calling out the numbers'

Could you imagine it:

"ladies and gentlemen we are currently reaching our flying altitude of 19000ft and the next number is two little ducks ----22"!!!!!!!!!

While I doubt this would happen on a FR flight, it might well happen on an EI flight if MOL has his way. The big difference between long haul and short haul is the number of hours your are sitting there looking at the seat back ahead of you. One of our start ups is developing a IFE you wouldn't believe. Just slide your credit card in the slot and you can listen to music, watch a movie, connect to the internet, play video poker. I will remember to suggest they add bingo to the list. Perhaps MOL is taking to these guys. I will have to ask the next time I go to Palo Alto.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
pilot21
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 8:00 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
Don't expect any FR board room coup d'états anytime soon. MOL is going nowhere he doesn't want to go.

Apparently, when the whole FR/EI thing blew up in Oct, it was reported that MO'L had said earlier this yr that 2008 will be his retirement yr. Who knows with that man!
Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
 
EI787
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 5:04 pm

Quote:
E1.5b airport plan for Lusk

By Hubert Murphy

HUNDREDS of acres west of Lusk have been earmarked for a new E1.5b airport runway and local terminal to service Dublin Airport.

The runway project has gathered momentum in the past two weeks after approximately 10 landowners were approached and asked if they would sell to those behind the project. The main backer is reported to be a wealthy Irish businessman.

The Fingal Independent believes that the landowners concerned have since met and discussed the plan and are set to make a positive decision in relation to it. It could involve up to 1,500 acres.

The land involved is close to Grace Dieu – the ruined site of an ancient nunnery – and sweeps westwards towards Ballyboughal between the townlands of Roscall and Brownstown and Dooroge and Cookstown.

‘It’s quite a project and it’s surprising that details haven’t gone public before now,’ a source revealed.

The runway will be designed to take the Airbus A380 with no difficulty and can also be used as a private enterprise.

The key element is the link with Dublin Airport. It’s envisaged that it will be a high speed rail system, connecting to a spur off the Metro line at Lissenhall. It will come down west of the M1, through Belinstown and Staffordstown before sweeping through Deanestown to the terminal.

Another plus for the developers, who are keen to keep the project low key until a deal is struck with the landowners, is that the approach to the runway will be between the town of Rush and the village of Portrane, directly over the Rogerstown Estuary and a low density population area, meaning minimal impact on the local population.

‘Things have been well thought out, it has to be said. They know that the landfill at Balleally is closing and the approach route is not over a major town,’ the source added.

The area is the last parcel of flat, suitable land in the region that could take the runway. However, it will be just a matter of miles from the proposed Nevitt landfill but will not be on the projected flightpath.

‘They are looking ahead to the future of air travel and realise that Dublin Airport will need another option and this is about the last place a runway of the size they need can be built in proximity to the airport,’ the source continued.

It’s believed aviation experts have been called in and given a firm thumbs up to the plan.

Just over three years ago landowners just north of the present project were contacted in relation to selling their land for a proposed theme park – Vega City – with one standing to make at least E26m had the deal gone through.

However, that project fell at pre-planning stage.

http://www.unison.ie/fingal_independ...p3?ca=34&si=1719748&issue_id=14861

What do you think?? A380 landings at Lusk??!!
 
Toulouse
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 6:47 pm

Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
He is making rash statements to the press and taking a very hard position.

I haven't really found his statements to be any more rash than O'Learys'. I'm also glad to see him taking a very hard position.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
From what I can see, DM is flying EI into the ground. He is increasing frequencies on routes and not starting new routes.

I disagree with you. DM has introduced Dubai, the first route east ever by EI and seems intent on expanding. He has introduced a number of new routes for this winter. And recently EI has instead of introducing new routes, increased frequencies on routes already operated. What is wrong with this? I find it quite a safe move in difficult times. The management at EI are not stupid, and I find increasing frequencies on routes which are already known, tested and obviously with more demand is not a bad idea. DM has good experience in the airline industry, and he hasn't been at EI for that long, yet in his short time he has "hinted" to all the expansion he wants to implement at EI, so give the man a chance. He has always left it fairly clear that this expansion would be post privatisation.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
People are so angry with MOL that they are lining up to get on his airplanes

Most people lining up to get on his airplanes probably don't even know who MOL is. He service very local markets which other airlines don't. Nevertheless, I constantly meet (as I'm living in Europe where people are well aware of FR and not in the US) people saying things such as "I just don't like flying FR", "I hate FR", "FR's service is awful"... I don't hear the same level of criticism regarding other airlines. Money counts, and that's one of the main attractions of FR for the average traveller. But while I do feel FR will continue to grow, I think things will get more difficult for them unless they change their level of service. A close example for you is my sister. She works with a well-known Irish man and they have to travel a lot for business. Ten years ago they were not frequent travellers and as a small yet highly successful business, they paid a lot of attention to their travel budget, so who did they usually fly..., yes FR. About two years ago, due to time restrictions on a trip to Munich I think they decided to pay a bit more and fly EI (as they didn't have the time on that trip for the time consuming transfer from the closes airport FR flies to). And what an eye-openner this was to them... they rediscovered service with a smile, more comfortable cabins, improved inflight service, and later discovered the joys of the advantages of frequent flyer programmes. Who do the fly with today out of preference? Yes, Aer Lingus and avoid FR as much as possible, and I feel this tendancy will also grow.
Another thing I'd like to add to my rant on FR. Some of their statistics make me laugh, as they soy joyfully claim that they loose less baggae and are more punctual by other major carriers such as EI, BA, LH, AF, etc... Well of course! FR flies to tiny airports where it would be quite difficult for luggage to go astray, and to face delays. Take my local airports as examples. I have EI flying direct from Toulouse to Dublin. While Toulouse is not a huge airport (some 6 million pax per annum) it does have a lot more traffic and is subject to more delays or the risk of losing baggage. FR flies to Carcassonne airport one hour away. Now that's a tiny terminal which only comes to life when an FR flight arrives. In fact no other airline uses the airport, so the risk of baggage going astray or delays on the ground (slot restrictions etc.) is minimial at an airport where peak time is when there are a whopping TWO Ryanair flights on the tarmac at the same time.
So as I always say, and as SomkeyRosco has pointed out, comaring EI and FR is pointless, just like comparing apples and oranges.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
and buy FR stock. Today FR closed at E9.43, and all time high.

Not surprising given that they had announced importnat profits.
Long live Aer Lingus!
 
kaitak
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 9:36 pm

Many people I'm sure will be relieved at the success of the Democrats in yesterday's elections - as of now, controlling the house and within a very good shout of the Senate too, BUT ...

If they start obstructing and rubbing the President's nose in the dirt, one of the casualties of this could be the Open Skies issue and we need to look for signs as to how this is going to turn out; on the plus side, if they are Democrats, the Irish govt tends to be closer to them and maybe lobbying might work to persuade them to make an exception, although I'm not sure if they could go straight to the House Aviation Cttee, rather than through the DOT. It is, however, something we need to bear in mind.
 
Danny
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 9:46 pm

Quoting Poitin (Reply 2):
. Even with the E250 he put into EI, he has more than made it up in H1 profits.

To be clear - investment in EI has no immediate impact on FR results. It is a balance sheet move between cash and investments.
 
jwmd123
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Wed Nov 08, 2006 10:36 pm

Quoting Poitin (Reply 10):
Quoting JWMD123 (Reply 7):
I also had to laugh at MOL's comments regarding the new BINGO venture FR are starting. He said in the future we may see 'The captains calling out the numbers'

Could you imagine it:

"ladies and gentlemen we are currently reaching our flying altitude of 19000ft and the next number is two little ducks ----22"!!!!!!!!!

While I doubt this would happen on a FR flight, it might well happen on an EI flight if MOL has his way. The big difference between long haul and short haul is the number of hours your are sitting there looking at the seat back ahead of you. One of our start ups is developing a IFE you wouldn't believe. Just slide your credit card in the slot and you can listen to music, watch a movie, connect to the internet, play video poker. I will remember to suggest they add bingo to the list. Perhaps MOL is taking to these guys. I will have to ask the next time I go to Palo Alto.

Poitin, I think dear old MOL was joking about this, but then again, i would not put it past him.
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 12:16 am

Quoting Pilot21 (Reply 11):
Apparently, when the whole FR/EI thing blew up in Oct, it was reported that MO'L had said earlier this yr that 2008 will be his retirement yr. Who knows with that man!

I said: "MOL is going nowhere he doesn't want to go." Perhaps he will retire to chairman of the board. I suspect he will. It is nice not to have to get up in the morning.

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 13):
Quoting Poitin (Reply 9):
From what I can see, DM is flying EI into the ground. He is increasing frequencies on routes and not starting new routes.

I disagree with you.

Yes, I am sure you do. However, we will just have to look at the next EI ISE report, won't we, to see what the numbers say. Right now they are looking bad.

http://www.ise.ie/app/announcementDetails.asp?ID=1328158

Quoting JWMD123 (Reply 16):
Perhaps MOL is taking to these guys. I will have to ask the next time I go to Palo Alto.

Poitin, I think dear old MOL was joking about this, but then again, i would not put it past him.

I am certainly not joking. I have been working on long haul money making opportunities for well over a year. MyWay Airlines, a low cost long haul sells you a ticket which give you a seat, a glass of water and a small loaf of bread for E100 return from DUB to JFK. You want a can of soda? Perhaps a nice sandwich? How about some music? Oh, how about a movie? And so you want to get onto the internet and check your email? Perhaps you want to play a video game with all the other kids on the plane? You want to recharge your laptop battery?

You have nothing else to do for the next four, five, or ten hours but stare at the seat ahead of you and munch on your two-day old loaf of bread.

All you have to do is swipe your credit card on the back of the seat ahead of you and it can all be yours for the next four or five or ten hours. Where else are you going to go? What else are you going to do?

It is the greatest money making opportunity you can imagine. Of course there is much more to the idea than I am saying, but MOL would love it, but only on long haul. It just won't work on short haul because the segments are too short to encourage people to buy these extras.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Toulouse
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 1:00 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
Yes, I am sure you do.

Oh Poitin, believe it or not, I don't ALWAYS disagree with you!

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
However, we will just have to look at the next EI ISE report, won't we, to see what the numbers say. Right now they are looking bad.

http://www.ise.ie/app/announcementDe...28158

I don't really think they look that bad looking at some main indicators (pax carried + load factor which you always enjoy referring to)
September 2006:
a.) Overall scheduled pax carried: + 6.4% over Sep. '05.
b.) Short haul pax carried: +8.9% over Sep. '05. Load factor = 80.0% (down 2.2% same period 2005).
c.) Long haul pax carried: -9.2% over same period 05. load factor down 7.4%.

January to September 2006:
a.) Scheduled pax. carried: +8.2%
b.) Short haul: +10.6%. Load factor: 77.1% (down 1.4%).
c.) Long haul: -5.3%. Load factor: 80.0% (down 6.7%).

Interestingly it seems to be the long haul which has been most badly affeted, but they have given clear indications of the "probable" reasons for this:
a.) They say that the decrease in l/h is a "reflection of the discontinuance of the Orlando route"... fact another a.netter nrought up recently but which you sais was not true and baffled us with statistics.
b) They constantly refer to the negative effects of the terrorism alert in London this year affecting traffic in general.

Anyway, we see load factors, for what ever reason are down, and as you constantly point out this is an important element, yet they give valid causes for this. Will this change? Time will tell.

I'm referring only to pas numbers and load factors here so don't say I'm ignoring other numbers, this is simply to back-up my point that I see no wrong in DM's current approach to increasing frequencies on routes. And he has promised MORE new routes soon.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
You have nothing else to do for the next four, five, or ten hours but stare at the seat ahead of you and munch on your two-day old loaf of bread.

All you have to do is swipe your credit card on the back of the seat ahead of you and it can all be yours for the next four or five or ten hours. Where else are you going to go? What else are you going to do?

Yes, there will be a arket for that I believe, but I for one (and many others I believe, yourself most probably included) would prefer to pay the extra euros and have it all included in the fare (+ get a better meal than you're describing).

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
It is the greatest money making opportunity you can imagine. Of course there is much more to the idea than I am saying, but MOL would love it, but only on long haul. It just won't work on short haul because the segments are too short to encourage people to buy these extras.

I totally agree with you, but again I think the market may very well be there, but I do not see this replacing current l/h service in which pax are continually looking for better service, better comfort, better IFE. So again I say given the option on an 8 hour flight for example of:
airline a.) An airline giving good leg-room, good service, good standard of free food, quality IFE, a FF programme, and backup in case of delays or missed connections, all for (and I'm just throwing up any "low" figure): €350, or
airline b.à la Ryanair). 2 day old stale sandwich and other beverages/snacks which must be paid for, the most tightly cramped Boeing a/c imaginable, and nothing else except a state of the art individual IFE system you have to pay for, thus running up your credit card bill (without even adding other standard Ryanair practices such as continual announcments offering sales, no possibility of interlining, flying you to an airport 1 hour from the main airport at the destination you're flying to, etc.) for €150...

I for one would pay the €350, wouldn't you?
Long live Aer Lingus!
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 1:02 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 15):
Quoting Poitin (Reply 2):
. Even with the E250 he put into EI, he has more than made it up in H1 profits.

To be clear - investment in EI has no immediate impact on FR results. It is a balance sheet move between cash and investments.

My point is that even E250M isn't that large of a pile of money when you have a couple billion in the bank, and are earning E 329 M (AFTER TAXES) per half.

Yes, the investment in EI has had no impact on FR, nor will it until MOL gains control of EI. Then, if he has his way, EI will start growing at 20% to 30% and start pumping more international business into the FR short haul. That is about the only way he is going to grow FR to 80 million pax a year. There aren't that many PAX in Europe alone to fill that quota. He has to tap new markets.

Right now EI has about 1.2 Million pax on long haul. That should grow to 8 or 10 million in a few years under his direction and finance.

And I still think he would have been far ahead by starting MyWay instead of getting into this stupid situation with EI.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 2:24 am

Something is going on with EI stock at 1630 it was at E2.79 and there was a large turn over of shares


Turnover: 15,027,439
Shares Traded on Day: 5,332,590
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 2:35 am

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 18):
Yes, there will be a arket for that I believe, but I for one (and many others I believe, yourself most probably included) would prefer to pay the extra euros and have it all included in the fare (+ get a better meal than you're describing).

Yeap, I do and would. However, there are a lot who would be attracted to the LCC LH. I for one do not like to fly on FR and have done it only once. However, the masses were lining up to get on, so MOL does have a workable plan.

The same equipment we are developing would have prepaid mode, as well as "free" for first class and such. In fact given the high proportion of internet purchases, we expect people to pre order their upgraded meal, special meals, entertainment and such when buying their ticket. Just how it would work is obviously be up to the airline, but we can make certain that each pax gets what they order. This does, of course, require assigned seating, but that is done on most long haul flights already.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
EI787
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 2:40 am

Gulf Air is very happy with DUB:

Quote:
Ireland strong market so far for Gulf Air

November 08, 2006 15:04

After ten months operating here, Gulf Air says Ireland is showing signs of being one of the strongest markets proportionately in Europe for the luxury airline.

Gulf Air says that since the introduction of three flights a week from Dublin in December to Bahrain and beyond, the airline has flown 35,000 passengers, with over 4,500 flying in July.

Speaking today at the official opening of Gulf Air Ireland's new head office in Dublin, the Minister for Transport Martin Cullen said: 'our air services strategy promotes competitiveness, flexibility, consumer choice and diversity of product to satisfy different consumer needs'.
Advertisement

Gulf Air's network stretches from Europe to Asia and covers 44 cities in 30 countries. The fleet comprises 34 aircraft.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1108/gulfair.html
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 2:47 am

What happened to EI stock? At 1230 it was E2.84 and then bang, to E2.79 at 1630. Was there an announcement? I've been looking where I can, but have found nothing.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
pilot21
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 2:52 am

Quoting EI787 (Reply 22):
Speaking today at the official opening of Gulf Air Ireland's new head office in Dublin, the Minister for Transport Martin Cullen said: 'our air services strategy promotes competitiveness, flexibility, consumer choice and diversity of product to satisfy different consumer needs'.

What Air Services Strategy???

Have you ever heard such rubbish in your life. Somebody should ask the Minister has he had to pass through the Terminal recently?
Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
 
kaitak
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 3:07 am

I know; he said that in relation to the FR takeover plan; if there is an Irish aviation policy, he's keeping very quiet about it.

On the subject of Open Skies and increased t/a access from next Summer, I was talking about this over PPRUNE and the vibes are not good at all. Basically, with the Republicans now have lost the House and more than likely, the Senate as well, the Democrats can basically block everything they want AND they were among the most vocal opponents of Open Skies.

On the plus side, there may be some advantage to us in the fact that the winners are Democrats, in that Ireland is traditionally closer to them. Hopefully, once the shape of the House Committee becomes clear, the govt could lobby them. However, the key focus, as I've said so many times before needs to be on the EU. The EU will obviously want to see what the position is and get some soundings from the Democrats. However, we need the govt, for once, to be very clear and forthright in fighting for our interests. If I may borrow a phrase from a colourful former US president, our aviation strategy and interests won't be worth "a bucket of warm p**s" if the govt is not going to explore every possible avenue and make sure that we get increased US access by next Summer. Election or no election, we've wasted enough of time on this BS.
 
EI787
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 4:52 am

I've put the Aer Lingus Ad onto YouTube for easier access:

 
User avatar
shamrock350
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:06 am

Thanks EI787! I hope more adverts end up on Youtube like "appearance" (I think that's it's name) and the "Look up, it's Aer Lingus" ad.
It would be cool if EI made a similar advert like this one when they get new A330s and the new Premier/economy class product.
I know they have more important things to worry about but it would be nice to go back in time and remind people that Aer Lingus is still the "Irish Airline".
 
smokeyrosco
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:10 am

Quoting EI787 (Reply 12):
What do you think?? A380 landings at Lusk??!!

Sounds very familiar except... wasn't the last time someone tried to do this it turned out to be a theme park?

Quoting Poitin (Reply 23):
What happened to EI stock? At 1230 it was E2.84 and then bang, to E2.79 at 1630. Was there an announcement? I've been looking where I can, but have found nothing.

Over 5c? not likely

Poitin, I've been away for the last 36hours or there abouts but after skimming through the 40 or so posts in this and the last thread I've had a few thoughts, the numbers your posted in the beginning can be read many ways and I can see the pluses for EI that you are obviously oblivious too.

MOL said himself he was going to retire in 2008, infact if i remember correctly he wanted to retire earlier but he didn't and he also said the person that would replace him would be a lot quieter

Quoting Poitin (Reply 19):
8 or 10 million in a few years under his direction and finance.

In your opinion

In my opinion the reason FR bought a shareholding in EI was protectionism which is what i said from the beginning. not only does MOL not want anybody else with the big bucks to take over EI and be able to afford the "2 billion euro" bank balance, but also with the competition that EI and FR have any other major player that tried to set foot in Ireland would be instantly shot down protecting his own market.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 17):
EI ISE report

This is the biggest problem I have with a lot of things you post here, you can read every report under the sun but unless you know what way the company works (and you don't it's not FR and has more in common with an orange then FR) you cannot hope to understand whats written in those reports. EI and FR are both 'Airlines' but that word may as well be a Homonym as it means something completely different in either case.

I'm not saying your going to be wrong in the future, I can't predict that you seem to think you can but what I'm saying is that in the here and now you are very wrong and I think you'll find that a lot more people agree with me then disagree with me.
John Hancock
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 6:30 am

Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 28):
Over 5c? not likely

Then look for yourself

http://www.ise.ie/app/equityDetails.asp?equity=41372
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 6:36 am

Quoting EI787 (Reply 26):
I've put the Aer Lingus Ad onto YouTube for easier access:

My first transatlantic trip was as a graduate student on a charter Britannia turbo prop that was pure hell. Two weeks later, I was told my charter had changed. It was on a EI 747, the Saint Patrick. I still have fond memories of that flight which this advert has certainly brought back. Thank you for the memories.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
pilot21
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 6:39 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 29):
Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 28):
Over 5c? not likely

Then look for yourself

I think Smokeyrosco was saying that an annoucement was not likely over a 5c move rather then a 5c move was not likely
(If that makes sense!)
Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
 
smokeyrosco
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:00 am

Quoting Pilot21 (Reply 31):
I think Smokeyrosco was saying that an annoucement was not likely over a 5c move rather then a 5c move was not likely
(If that makes sense!)

Thats exactly what I meant, if someone had to announce something everytime there was a 5c difference then we'd be in thread 40 by now.
John Hancock
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:02 am

Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 28):
In my opinion the reason FR bought a shareholding in EI was protectionism which is what i said from the beginning. not only does MOL not want anybody else with the big bucks to take over EI and be able to afford the "2 billion euro"

Right, I see them lining up right now. EK has certainly no interest, if what Tim Clark said is true. BA sure can't and I don't see LH or AF buying EI. Have you thought of the alternative that nobody else wants to buy EI? Just what is this "protectionism" you are talking about?

Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 28):
you can read every report under the sun but unless you know what way the company works (and you don't it's not FR and has more in common with an orange then FR) you cannot hope to understand whats written in those reports.

So I assume that you are DM's right hand man, with all the inside information. Or are you merely one of the worker bees? True you know both EI and FR on a day to day basis far better than I ever will. But I doubt you have even a foggiest idea about the cash flow inside of EI. And at the end of the day, whether or not your EI paycheck (if you work there) cashes at the bank depends on the cash flow.

Those reports you poo-poo are the basis of the entire financial system of publicly traded companies. Their content is determined by law as well as hundreds of years of accounting experience. They speak a great deal more than gut feelings.

Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 28):
I'm not saying your going to be wrong in the future, I can't predict that you seem to think you can but what I'm saying is that in the here and now you are very wrong and I think you'll find that a lot more people agree with me then disagree with me.

I think I can predict what will happen from what has happened, and the trends that those "reports" tell me. It is not infallible, but it is a lot better than gut feelings. Or do you have some tangible data to show otherwise? If so then please present it.

As for what everyone else thinks, it is not a matter of concern to me as I am not running for public office or trying to sell them anything. If I am right I am right, and if I am wrong, then I am wrong. It is not a matter of voting, but results. We shall see in a few months when EI presents it first annual report as a publicly traded company.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Poitin
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:10 am

Quoting Pilot21 (Reply 31):
I think Smokeyrosco was saying that an annoucement was not likely over a 5c move rather then a 5c move was not likely
(If that makes sense!)

to E2.79? I think that is VERY signifiant. What happened?
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
smokeyrosco
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:31 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 33):
Right, I see them lining up right now. EK has certainly no interest, if what Tim Clark said is true. BA sure can't and I don't see LH or AF buying EI. Have you thought of the alternative that nobody else wants to buy EI? Just what is this "protectionism" you are talking about?

EI was an easy target for a takeover, I'm not saying EK was going to take them over, yes I had used them as an example in the past but I never said they would, you can call a takeover bid as a gut feeling.

Basicly (for the forth time) what I mean by Protectionism is that with a major shareholding in EI (or if FR managed to take control of EI) then they would thwort any efforts by any other airline to take over EI. Why do you really think he moved so quickly? If EI was a bad investment why would a very smart man like MOL not take his time and wait for the shares to drop in price.

Maybe because there is more to this then both and I know put together.

The other aspect of protectionism I have talked about is that with FR's and EI's control of the Irish market they are fairly safe from any major competitor trying to mucle in on the Irish market. Sure they both may have to compete but whats the bets WX fails to make serious growth in Ireland?

Quoting Poitin (Reply 33):
So I assume that you are DM's right hand man, with all the inside information. Or are you merely one of the worker bees? True you know both EI and FR on a day to day basis far better than I ever will. But I doubt you have even a foggiest idea about the cash flow inside of EI. And at the end of the day, whether or not your EI paycheck (if you work there) cashes at the bank depends on the cash flow.

Those reports you poo-poo are the basis of the entire financial system of publicly traded companies. Their content is determined by law as well as hundreds of years of accounting experience. They speak a great deal more than gut feelings.

Wrong wrong wrong.... I don't work for EI or FR nor have I ever. I have worked in DUB and worked along side both companies. I know what way EI works, I know what way FR works from the inside out, I know that before the floatation that EI had in the region of €500 million euros in cash reserves, I know about as much of EI's cash flow since the I read the same reports you've read. I agree things are probably going to get worse then they get better.

I havn't poo-poo'ed any reports, I poo-poo'ed your take on the reports because not only do I know the figures, I know more of the reasons behind the figures then you do, and no not because I have any major connection with EI but because I've worked for 3 years in that exact sector. You only seem to read what you want to read in what I say rather then what I actually say.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 33):
I think I can predict what will happen from what has happened, and the trends that those "reports" tell me. It is not infallible, but it is a lot better than gut feelings. Or do you have some tangible data to show otherwise? If so then please present it.

As for what everyone else thinks, it is not a matter of concern to me as I am not running for public office or trying to sell them anything. If I am right I am right, and if I am wrong, then I am wrong. It is not a matter of voting, but results. We shall see in a few months when EI presents it first annual report as a publicly traded company.

I hate repeating myself but here wa go again, it's not gut feeling, I'm very critical about a lot of Irish Avaition, the fact you think it is gut feeling is where you fall down in this thread.

EI's First annual report as a publicly traded company will be published less then a month after EI was floated which means they mean nothing, it will be results from then on that matter.

Another thing that I've said on here is FR has been in the business of making money for 21 years they should have it down to an art. EI has been in the business of making money for a month and a half. Prior to that EI was there to provide a service to this little Island of ours, this is where EI's advantage lays but this is also where I have a problem with EI. DM said he is not going to abandon SNN which I think is something he needs to rethink.

The be and end of it all is EI has issues it needs to sort out, some major some minor, but you are so focused on EI being dead within a few years without MOL I'm afraid I have to point out how wrong you are sir.
John Hancock
 
smokeyrosco
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:32 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 34):
to E2.79? I think that is VERY signifiant. What happened?

Profit taking?
John Hancock
 
smokeyrosco
Posts: 1441
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:37 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 118):
From the 2005 EI annual report:

turnover -- E 883 M
profit -------- E 72 M
PAX --------- 8.0M

Staff -------- 3,475

From the 2006 FR annual report:

Turnover -- E 1,693 M
profit ------- E 375 M
PAX -------- 34.8M

Staff ------- 3,063

Ohh btw, did you not notice that EI revenue per pax is €110 while FR's is about €50

now I don't know about you but when EI cut costs how much better off do you think they'll be?
John Hancock
 
smokeyrosco
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:39 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 34):
to E2.79? I think that is VERY signifiant. What happened?

ohh just a thought, it could be to do with the EU as the date is set for the reply but also the government seems confident that it will go in there favour according to every news bulletin i heard today.
John Hancock
 
jwmd123
Posts: 405
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:56 am

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 18):
Interestingly it seems to be the long haul which has been most badly affeted, but they have given clear indications of the "probable" reasons for this:
a.) They say that the decrease in l/h is a "reflection of the discontinuance of the Orlando route"... fact another a.netter nrought up recently but which you sais was not true and baffled us with statistics.
b) They constantly refer to the negative effects of the terrorism alert in London this year affecting traffic in general.

Thankyou Toulouse, but I see Poitin has looked over this point again.

By the way Poitin, I work in the Financial sector and there are many reasons why I would not be to happy about the FR takeover.

Firstly, if I were a large investor in FR and they decide to launch a E1.4 bn takeover for EI, why then can they not pay me a dividend for investing so much money in the company? You talk about DM should be looking after EI shareholder interest but where is MOL's interest (being an investment fund, you would want to be able to show your clients that there are returns available). For an airline that has grown beyond everyone's expectations, FR have not really looked after their shareholders. Sure the price of the shares have gone up but this is not just down to what FR has done (don't forget, most world indices's are hitting record highs, just look at the Dow Jones, only today, the ISEQ, FTSE, CAC40 DAX etc etc).
Secondly, being a large investor, I would question their judgement to deviate from the core business model that has worked so well. FR have said even before the takeover they would increase passenger numbers to 80M. Why invested over E1bn in a company that have a different operating model, has a short haul and long haul network and also has ties with many flag carriers in Europe/ US (we all know that even after leaving OW, EI will still have ties with various airlines)? Also, in going long haul, interlining will be required, therefore more costs, namely, technology for booking engines, compensating passengers if connections are missed due to delayed flights etc etc etc.
Being an investor, I would be shouting for the boardroom ceiling to tell MOL, leave EI the hell alone, plough on with the current strategy and pay me dividends (ok a one off is happening this year, but that is it, a one off)
 
kaitak
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 3:43 pm

A few little snippets in the papers today, of interest from an aviation perspective:

The Irish Times reported, as part of a report on the ministerial opening of GF's new office, that Ireland is close to signing bilaterals with China, Thailand and Singapore, which could apparently bring direct flights closer. I thought the EU was now negotiating directly with China, at least, and that an Open Skies deal was already in place with Singapore. Either way, it doesn't necessarily mean direct flights are any closer - certainly not to Singapore anyway. The A332 doesn't have the range, particularly on the homebound stretch and the Dublin runway is too short to allow a nonstop 777 service.

The Indo reports that there is finally some light being shone on the air cargo issue, with reports of major infrastructural problems to be faced. Apparently, air cargo tonnage last year was only 137,000t (or so), which is considerably lower than the 150,000t I expected; that is unacceptable and shows that there has hardly been any growth over the past decade.

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independe...3?ca=184&si=1720282&issue_id=14865
 
Toulouse
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 4:46 pm

Quoting EI787 (Reply 26):
I've put the Aer Lingus Ad onto YouTube for easier access:

Thanks EI787!

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 27):
but it would be nice to go back in time and remind people that Aer Lingus is still the "Irish Airline".

Certainly Shamrock350, it would be nice.

Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 28):
In my opinion the reason FR bought a shareholding in EI was protectionism which is what i said from the beginning. not only does MOL not want anybody else with the big bucks to take over EI and be able to afford the "2 billion euro" bank balance, but also with the competition that EI and FR have any other major player that tried to set foot in Ireland would be instantly shot down protecting his own market.

That is an interesting point of view, and you may very well be right.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 33):
So I assume that you are DM's right hand man, with all the inside information.

Poitin, I probably shouldn't respond to this, but heck, I wall (and please DON'T take it badly), but you also frequently make yourself appear to be DM's or LO'L right-hand man...

Quoting Poitin (Reply 33):
Those reports you poo-poo are the basis of the entire financial system of publicly traded companies.

Firstly I don't think anybody here, including SmokeyRosco and myself, are "poo-pooing" those reports, but perhaps your interpretation to them. I notice than when some of us (myself included) give our interpretation of the figures, you often ignore it. Like a bit earlier in this thread, you yet again quoted one of the ISE reports saying things "looked bad" for EI, I took a look at the report and didn't think it looked that bad at all and quoted the reasons (given on the report you quoted) for the bad figures, and still no response from you, obviously not that you're obliged to respond, but you keep asking us all for facts when you disagree with us, and when presented, you seem to overlook them.
Also, we must remember there are many types of businesses out there, and the airline industry itself is quite a complex and "mysterious" one.

Quoting JWMD123 (Reply 39):
Thankyou Toulouse, but I see Poitin has looked over this point again.

You're welcome, just pointing out what I've found.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 40):

Very interesting Kaitak. Do you see EI reintroducing cargo on its its s/h flights?
Long live Aer Lingus!
 
al2637
Posts: 228
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 6:25 pm

Firstly, if I were a large investor in FR and they decide to launch a E1.4 bn takeover for EI, why then can they not pay me a dividend for investing so much money in the company?

You say you are in finance and ask this question??? It is very common for companies not to pay dividends. Mainly for tax reasons, i.e. the unpaid dividend/cash reserves increase the value of the stock price, which is often more tax efficient then handing out hard cash! Microsoft only paid their FIRST EVER dividend in 2005!


Ohh btw, did you not notice that EI revenue per pax is €110 while FR's is about €50

now I don't know about you but when EI cut costs how much better off do you think they'll be?


I believe this is the combined short-haul & long haul figure for EI? Also, You have to understand, that by cutting costs, EI will also need to cut service, thus making them closer and closer to the service of FR. It is not as simple as reducing the per pax cost and maintaing the same revenue. I again point to EI's upcoming charging for baggage and seat selection.

Personally I believe EI can make it, if they have enough vision and become very agressive on long-haul. But to be honest, I don't believe the current management do. It was a sad day when WW left.
 
kaitak
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:18 pm

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 41):
Very interesting Kaitak. Do you see EI reintroducing cargo on its its s/h flights?

Not on short haul, but I see them being more aggressive on long haul and especially if they go into Asia, which will be a huge cargo market for them. However, whether the 330 is ideal is open to question, particularly on the return flights, which will be busiest for cargo.

Bad news today, I'm afraid, as Aer Arann has axed DUB-SNN (and back!)

This just gives another example of how damaging the stopover is; the ATR42/72 is the ideal aircraft for this kind of route, in that this is the type of route it was designed for - and it's also a lot more environmentally friendly. If EI didn't have the 50/50 obligation, there would be sufficient demand for Aer Arann to operate this route, because there wouldn't be anything like as many Aer Lingus flights - Aer Lingus certainly doesn't want to operate as many as it has to; it's an unavoidable consequence of the regulations. Again, everyone loses because of EU intransigence.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/?jp=CWIDEYEYMHQL
 
jwmd123
Posts: 405
Joined: Fri May 12, 2006 7:12 pm

RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:25 pm

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 42):
You say you are in finance and ask this question??? It is very common for companies not to pay dividends. Mainly for tax reasons, i.e. the unpaid dividend/cash reserves increase the value of the stock price, which is often more tax efficient then handing out hard cash! Microsoft only paid their FIRST EVER dividend in 2005!

Eh, wrong, microsoft have been paying dividends since 2003!!!!


http://www.microsoft.com/msft/FAQ/dividend.mspx
 
pilot21
Posts: 983
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 1999 8:28 am

RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:31 pm

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 43):
This just gives another example of how damaging the stopover is; the ATR42/72 is the ideal aircraft for this kind of route, in that this is the type of route it was designed for - and it's also a lot more environmentally friendly. If EI didn't have the 50/50 obligation,

They should look more closely at suspending the route until next yr. Once the new EI aircraft arrive next May/June and the increase in L/H flights kick in, EI will only operate 2 flights a day between DUB-SNN. Aer Arann should look at re-introducing the route once the level of service from EI decreases.
Aircraft I've flown: A300/A310/A320/A321/A330/A340/B727/B732/B733/B734/B735/B738/B741/B742/B744/DC10/MD80/IL62/Bae146/AR
 
al2637
Posts: 228
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2006 1:11 am

RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:54 pm

Eh, wrong, microsoft have been paying dividends since 2003!!!!

My bad, but the point remains, not paying divendents is standard practise is a lot of companies. From recollection, the only reason MS did pay was the threat of legal action from the IRS, as a company is only allowed hoard cash for so long.
 
Poitin
Posts: 2651
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 6:32 am

RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:43 pm

Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 37):
Ohh btw, did you not notice that EI revenue per pax is €110 while FR's is about €50

now I don't know about you but when EI cut costs how much better off do you think they'll be?

Short haul to short haul ? And as the average EI short haul ticket is ether E66 according to the annual report or E88 according to the IPO prospectus, just how the hell do they make E110.

And it is not revenue that counts, but profit.

So much for your "insider" insights lad.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Poitin
Posts: 2651
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 6:32 am

RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:50 pm

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 41):
Quoting Poitin (Reply 33):
So I assume that you are DM's right hand man, with all the inside information.

Poitin, I probably shouldn't respond to this, but heck, I wall (and please DON'T take it badly), but you also frequently make yourself appear to be DM's or LO'L right-hand man...

No, I am just investor playing the investor game. Part of it is go get into the mind of the major players and try to see what they are doing. I have never met DM or MOL, nor do I own stock in EI or FR, or any airline for that matter.

Perhaps you should read Sun Tzu The Art of War and you perhaps will understand what I am doing.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Poitin
Posts: 2651
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 6:32 am

RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:56 pm

Quoting Toulouse (Reply 41):
Like a bit earlier in this thread, you yet again quoted one of the ISE reports saying things "looked bad" for EI, I took a look at the report and didn't think it looked that bad at all

Yeap, you sure did. And "we will see" was my response, which it still is. We will see in a few months. My prediction is EI 2006 profits will be down by at least half over 2005. That is in the range of E 35M or less.

We shall see.

By the way, given your financial insight, just what do you predict for 2006 EI profits?
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
User avatar
ThrottleHold
Posts: 545
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RE: 20/20 Vision - The New Irish Aviation Thread!

Fri Nov 10, 2006 12:01 am

From RTE.ie/news:

Ryanair 'broke stock exchange rule'

November 09, 2006 14:41

Ryanair breached certain stock exchange rules in announcing details of its offer document for Aer Lingus.

According to The Irish Takeover Panel, Ryanair breached Rule 19.1(a) on October 20 when outlining details of its offer for Aer Lingus to journalists. The breach relates to the payout each Aer Lingus ESOT member would get should Ryanair be successful in its bid for Aer Lingus.

Rule 19.1(a) requires that: 'Every document or statement issued in connection with an offer by the offeror or the offeree meets the same standards of accuracy, completeness and fair presentation as would be required of a prospectus.'
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The panel says there was not enough detail in the ESOT payout figures mentioned at the press conference on October 20, so Aer Lingus shareholders would not have been able to assess the significance of the statement.

A spokesperson for Ryanair this afternoon said the airline had no comment to make.

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Perhaps they were sketchy on the info so that no one would realise the lies ans spin it was!

[Edited 2006-11-09 16:27:28]