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N328KF
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 4:50 am

Your article title is misleading; It does not state that the program as a whole will be cancelled. It merely states that the program may suffer cancellations at the hands of the customers.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 4:56 am

And even if all those freighters are cancelled, my money is on a "program stop" (like Boeing did with the 777-200LR in 2002) more then an outright program termination.

That way, when interest returns, Airbus can complete the work and sell the product.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:15 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
That way, when interest returns, Airbus can complete the work and sell the product.

Revision:

That way, IF AND when interest returns, Airbus can complete the work and sell the product.

There is no indication that any cargo operator is interested in the A380F for now or for the future. Those who can use it best are bailing or soon will, and other carriers have voted for the 777F and 748F with their dollars since both were launched.

Airbus would be smartest to shift resources to the A330F program ASAP.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
NYC777
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:22 am

The thing is since Boeign introduced the 748F, there hasn't been any takers for the A380F. Even KE which will use the A388 has ruled them out in favor of the 777F or the 748F.

I think Airbus is slowly starting to realize that the A380F might be too heavy structurally (like Boeing said) to be moving all the freight around. A lot of airlines have come to that conclusion too.

[Edited 2006-11-08 21:23:20]
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
Ken777
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:24 am

Looks like there is more change going on at Airbus than in Washington DC.

Long term FedEx has probably done Airbus a favor and UPS will probably be following.

The 380F program seems to me to have a far lower priority on resources at Airbus than any of their other current and future programs. Time for it to be put on hold for a while.
 
NYC777
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:31 am

Actually Airbus wouldbe wise to reallocate resources from the A380F to the A388 so they can get that pup out the door.

They are trully on the edge with this program as far as the airline customers are concerned. They can weather small cancellations like TG and MAS but they can't afford to lose EK or any others. That would destroy the program.

Given what has been happening with the A380 program I doubt you'll see another all new VLA program for at least a decade or more andthat is after the A380 has been thourghly been analyzed and discussed as a case study (as both an engineering case study as well as a managment-operations case study).
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 6:32 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
Airbus would be smartest to shift resources to the A330F program ASAP.

Indeed. This increases the pressure to base the A330F on an A330E with B787 engines.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 6:36 am

Quote:
The 20-year market forecast by ACMG projects a need for more than 500 new wide-body production freighters — a lot of business to leave on the table for Boeing.

The crisis with the A380 also appears to be having an impact on Airbus' ability to launch its A350 plane against the 787.

McVitie said that a decision on whether to launch the A350, rumored for this week, has been pushed out indefinitely in the face of disagreements within Airbus on how to finance that airplane, where to build it and how much of it should be made from plastic.

"They're trying to keep the A380 program from collapsing. It's 'all hands on deck,' " said ACMG's Laird. Until that's done, no other decisions can be made. "Airbus is in paralysis," he said.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...aerospace/2003364882_boeing08.html
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
OU812
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 6:52 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 9):
Quote:
The 20-year market forecast by ACMG projects a need for more than 500 new wide-body production freighters --- a lot of business to leave on the table for Boeing.

The crisis with the A380 also appears to be having an impact on Airbus' ability to launch its A350 plane against the 787.

McVitie said that a decision on whether to launch the A350, rumored for this week, has been pushed out indefinitely in the face of disagreements within Airbus on how to finance that airplane, where to build it and how much of it should be made from plastic.

"They're trying to keep the A380 program from collapsing. It's 'all hands on deck,' " said ACMG's Laird. Until that's done, no other decisions can be made. "Airbus is in paralysis," he said.

Intriqueing !

It appears that the FedEx A380 cancellation has put the XWB-A350 project on hold ! Due to the adjective A380 project .
 
BrowntailWhale
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:01 am

CHICAGO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Package delivery company United Parcel Service
Inc. (UPS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is in no rush to cancel its order of
10 A380s from Airbus (EAD.PA: Quote, Profile, Research), UPS' top executive
said on Wednesday.

"We are not pressed to make a decision," Chief Executive Officer Mike Eskew
said at a company investor conference that was Web cast.

Eskew said UPS has enough other planes scheduled for delivery over the next
two years to cover its immediate needs. "Our backs are not against the wall
on this issue," he said.

UPS has an option on another 10 A380s
 
katekebo
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:15 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 9):
McVitie said that a decision on whether to launch the A350, rumored for this week, has been pushed out indefinitely in the face of disagreements within Airbus on how to finance that airplane, where to build it and how much of it should be made from plastic.

Read: France is willing to support Airbus with "launch aid" at whaterver cost (in the end, Airbus is a matter of national pride), but Germany is reluctant to "scratch the balls of a sleeping tiger", i.e. upset the USA and turn the issue into a full-front battle in the WTO. Leahy and the sales guys are pushing for a "plastic" plane to be able to present a meaningfull competitor to the B787, but the financial guys are saying that it is too expensive to develop, and the engineers are not sure if they can build one in due time given the massive workload to sort out A380 issues, get their CAD platform right, and re-design the supply chain to keep manufacturing costs competitive.
 
swissy
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:34 am

Quoting Browntailwhale (Reply 11):
CHICAGO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Package delivery company United Parcel Service
Inc. (UPS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is in no rush to cancel its order of
10 A380s from Airbus (EAD.PA: Quote, Profile, Research), UPS' top executive
said on Wednesday.

"We are not pressed to make a decision," Chief Executive Officer Mike Eskew
said at a company investor conference that was Web cast.

Eskew said UPS has enough other planes scheduled for delivery over the next
two years to cover its immediate needs. "Our backs are not against the wall
on this issue," he said.

UPS has an option on another 10 A380s

Thanks mate!!! so since I have no reason to not trust statemend above , all of us should not put UPS in the same pot with FX, UPS will do wathever it needs to do and not because FX did it ........

AB needs to push and somehow has to get out of the mud and that includs the A380F..........

Cheers,
 
threepoint
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 7:36 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
Those who can use it best are bailing or soon will

We all know about FedEx...who else do you foresee "bailing or soon will"?
The nice thing about a mistake is the pleasure it gives others.
 
DLPMMM
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 8:07 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 12):
Read: France is willing to support Airbus with "launch aid" at whaterver cost (in the end, Airbus is a matter of national pride), but Germany is reluctant to "scratch the balls of a sleeping tiger", i.e. upset the USA and turn the issue into a full-front battle in the WTO. Leahy and the sales guys are pushing for a "plastic" plane to be able to present a meaningfull competitor to the B787, but the financial guys are saying that it is too expensive to develop, and the engineers are not sure if they can build one in due time given the massive workload to sort out A380 issues, get their CAD platform right, and re-design the supply chain to keep manufacturing costs competitive.

I would say that this was one of the most insightful and articulate posts on A.net that I have read in a long time.

Well done Katekebo!
 trophy 
 
UPS Pilot
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 8:20 am

The Fed Ex cancelation will move up UPS' delivery slots about a year. Fred was wanting somebody to cancel so the samething would happen for Fed Ex. It came down to crunch time so he had to make a decision to keep the order or cancel. UPS ordered 744f and 744 conversions around the same time as the A380. UPS also still has outstanding MD-11 conversions so the lift is there. The A380 was needed by both companies out of China for existing slots. It would give both a buy one get one free so to speak for each landing slot we have. The cancelation will force Fed EX to aquire more flights to China.
 
PVG
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 8:26 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 12):
(in the end, Airbus is a matter of national pride)

That's why they are in this mess! I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but they are never going to make a reasonable return on the A380. I can't understand why they don't just drop it and move on to bigger and better things.
 
cedarjet
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 8:52 am

While I'm personally very angry and disappointed with Airbus to have got so close to building a perfect machine and seemingly fallen badly on the final hurdle, I do think that the inexorably expanding demand for air travel and air cargo almost guarantees the success of the A380. This will become even more the case with the constantly (and forever more) rising price of oil, the biggest and newest aircraft will offer the best fuel efficiency per tonne or mile. God knows what the price of a barrel of oil will be in 2010 when the A380 backlog starts to clear and aircraft deliveries can be promised on time and go from signature to delivery in a fairly short amount of time. I'd be cancelling if I was FedEx, but I can't help think they'll be back.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
Adria
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 8:55 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 12):
France is willing to support Airbus with "launch aid" at whaterver cost (in the end, Airbus is a matter of national pride),

Heeh, "launch aid" helped the 787 and Airbus has been a very successful and profitable airline in the past and it will be in the future. Your comment clearly shows that you are not capable of reading some financial facts about a company.

Quoting PVG (Reply 17):
That's why they are in this mess! I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but they are never going to make a reasonable return on the A380. I can't understand why they don't just drop it and move on to bigger and better things.

...and you can already tell how successful the A380 is going to be in the future?
 
Flaps
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:00 am

Didnt UPS cancel a big chunk of A300-600's and convert that into their A380 orders/options? If so that would explain them being in no rush to cancel the 380's.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:01 am

Quoting Flaps (Reply 20):
Didnt UPS cancel a big chunk of A300-600's and convert that into their A380 orders/options? If so that would explain them being in no rush to cancel the 380's.

Yes, though 5X could convert those conversions to A330F orders so they are not obligated to take the A380F to protect their deposits.
 
PVG
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:14 am

Quoting Adria (Reply 19):
and you can already tell how successful the A380 is going to be in the future?

Per their own calcs. they are going to have to sell 420 units just to break even. There are other options now that will be available to airlines that can offer the same economics as the A380 without having the pressure of trying to fill 500 seats everyday. Airbus is now having to go back to the drawing board for a product that was already supposed to have been in service, who know if they will ever be able to build it!

The nature of this business and many other capital intensive businesses is that you look at a set of facts and circumstances today while making investment decisions with huge amounts of money that may or may not pay off 5-10 years down the road. Does anyone really know what's going to happen 5 years from now? Not really. However, you do your best with the inputs you have today and make your decision and live with it. From all the inputs that we have today, I doubt that Airbus would make the same decision that they made 6 years ago.

Therefore, since they haven't started delivering the A380 and they are now having to go back and do substantial re-design just to get it to do what they promised airlines 6 years ago in addition to the fact that it's severely crimping their ability to compete on other fronts, they really need to reconsider the program.
 
ScottB
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:31 am

Quoting Flaps (Reply 20):
Didnt UPS cancel a big chunk of A300-600's and convert that into their A380 orders/options? If so that would explain them being in no rush to cancel the 380's.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
Yes, though 5X could convert those conversions to A330F orders so they are not obligated to take the A380F to protect their deposits.

I've been trying to figure out what's going on here with the UPS A380F order as well. I can't imagine that the A380F program makes sense for Airbus with only 15 frames on order and generally slim prospects for additional orders over the next several years. One would think that they probably have better uses for the money and the engineering talent that would be needed to bring the freighter derivative to market (as well as providing earlier passenger A380 slots to existing customers).

As Stitch suggested further above, perhaps the best solution for Airbus now would be to defer the A380F program indefinitely until the market need arises. They can then devote their attention and euros to other products which are more critical to the company's future.

What I think is going on with UPS's comments is that we're seeing a bit of negotiating through the press. UPS certainly has a plan for using the A380F's if they end up actually being delivered, but I suspect that they'd be just as happy not taking them and having A330F's or 777F's instead. The 5X A380 order was tied to them being allowed to cancel a large part of their A300-600F order -- and one would expect that a customer that really, really wanted A380F's might not have needed such an inducement. I'm of a mind that UPS is trying to get Airbus to sweeten whatever sort of deal is being discussed behind the scenes which would allow 5X to "defer" or "convert" A380F orders. I'd guess that the ILFC orders would be switched to regular passenger orders just as EK did or perhaps to A330F orders.
 
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ER757
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:46 am

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 5):
The 380F program seems to me to have a far lower priority on resources at Airbus than any of their other current and future programs. Time for it to be put on hold for a while



Quoting NYC777 (Reply 7):
Actually Airbus wouldbe wise to reallocate resources from the A380F to the A388 so they can get that pup out the door.

 checkmark  and  checkmark 
Devoting resources to what amounts to a 15 frame derivative now is counter-productive. They need to get the pax version delivered in quantity to their customers and get a revenue stream flowing. They also need to get cracking on whatever they decide the A350 is to be before ceding that entire market to Boeing. Face it, Boeing's already cornered the large freighter market, don't throw good money and resources after bad chasing them there.
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 9:50 am

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 18):
the biggest and newest aircraft will offer the best fuel efficiency per tonne or mile.

That's normally the case, but it is increasingly clear that the A350-1000 and B787-10 will have lower CASM than either the B747-8I SuperJumbo or the WhaleJet. Same would be true with an A350F/B787F at least against the A380F and perhaps even against the B747-8F. Even an A330F with B787 engines looks like it would beat the WhaleJet in tonne-mile costs.

Quoting PVG (Reply 22):
There are other options now that will be available to airlines that can offer the same economics as the A380 without having the pressure of trying to fill 500 seats everyday.

 checkmark 
 
ikramerica
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:05 am

Quote:
The 20-year market forecast by ACMG projects a need for more than 500 new wide-body production freighters --- a lot of business to leave on the table for Boeing.

I hope people don't translate this to mean 500 new build Freighters 33% larger than anything else on offer, because that would be silly.

A300F, A330F, A350F, 767F, 787F, 777F and 787F are all widebody freighters, and as long as Airbus offers the A330F ASAP, they are not "leaving business on the table" for Boeing.

You can't force people to buy a product they don't want. It's better to determine what they DO want and sell them that, instead...  Wink

Quoting Browntailwhale (Reply 11):
"Our backs are not against the wall
on this issue," he said.

Translation: We are going to hold Airbus to their deal, so they are forced to give us favorable terms on cancelation/conversion.

Quoting Threepoint (Reply 14):
We all know about FedEx...who else do you foresee "bailing or soon will"?

There were a grand total of 4 A380F customers.

ILFC, EK, FX and 5X.

2 of four have bailed on the A380F (EK converted them to pax).

UPS is not in any hurry to get the planes, by their own admission as quoted above.

ILFC will convert them to anything else they want if they can't find customers, so unless you can point out the customers for their frames...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
swissy
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:09 am

Quoting UPS Pilot (Reply 16):
The Fed Ex cancelation will move up UPS' delivery slots about a year. Fred was wanting somebody to cancel so the samething would happen for Fed Ex. It came down to crunch time so he had to make a decision to keep the order or cancel. UPS ordered 744f and 744 conversions around the same time as the A380. UPS also still has outstanding MD-11 conversions so the lift is there. The A380 was needed by both companies out of China for existing slots. It would give both a buy one get one free so to speak for each landing slot we have. The cancelation will force Fed EX to aquire more flights to China.

 thumbsup 

Quoting PVG (Reply 17):
That's why they are in this mess! I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but they are never going to make a reasonable return on the A380. I can't understand why they don't just drop it and move on to bigger and better things.

The return is relative considering the whole picture.... I know the majority of us including me were not around when the 747 was coming to the market, but based on some "old farts" which I had a chance to talk to very much agree that 40 years ago it was the same with the 747, to big, no market.........
(not talking about the delay), I know "we"are all pros and we know it all however the "market" will decide how successful the 380 will be and I fully understand some people have a problem with that fact.......  Wink

And the 330F is not a solution for UPS in regard of the 380....

Cheers,
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:12 am

Quoting Swissy (Reply 27):
And the 330F is not a solution for UPS in regard of the 380....

Sure it is. UPS don't handle a lot of packages that wouldn't fit in an A330F. It's all about tonne-mile costs.
 
DLPMMM
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:28 am

Quoting Swissy (Reply 27):
The return is relative considering the whole picture.... I know the majority of us including me were not around when the 747 was coming to the market, but based on some "old farts" which I had a chance to talk to very much agree that 40 years ago it was the same with the 747, to big, no market.........

Airbus cannot afford to dump the A380 as a project financially, as they need the revenue stream, and the additional costs to be spent verses the future revenue stream would make dropping the program financially stupid,

That said, the 747 dynamics coming to market were very much different, as the major reason most airlines bought the 747 was for the range and not the size. Now there is ETOPS which allow smaller aircraft to travel the same distances as larger planes with the same or better CASM than the "Jumbo" aircraft. There was quite a good market for the 747 from the start, at the time the question was not so much of airlines buying it, but rather if Boeing could manufacture it.

Cheers
 
Curmudgeon
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:49 am

Quoting Swissy (Reply 27):
The return is relative considering the whole picture.... I know the majority of us including me were not around when the 747 was coming to the market, but based on some "old farts" which I had a chance to talk to very much agree that 40 years ago it was the same with the 747, to big, no market.........
(not talking about the delay), I know "we"are all pros and we know it all however the "market" will decide how successful the 380 will be and I fully understand some people have a problem with that fact.......

The early program was promising, and on balance the smart money back then was on reaching break even + 100 or so frames. The 747 was replacing relatively inefficient airframes. The oil crunch of the mid 70's made CASM the most important factor, while the recession (stagflation) made RASM important too. Through that balancing act, and probably largely because of the range benefits, the 747 became a winner. CASM still rules, only now airlines don't have to risk diluting revenue to get it. As Zvezda and others have amply demonstrated, outside of the few slot constrained routes, the 787/A350 will be the new paradigm for long haul until the next generation.
Jets are for kids
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:10 am

Quoting ScottB (Reply 23):
I've been trying to figure out what's going on here with the UPS A380F order as well. I can't imagine that the A380F program makes sense for Airbus with only 15 frames on order and generally slim prospects for additional orders over the next several years.

Well, now take the A380-800F and give it the following characteristics (admittedly not easy):
  • Uprated engines. Between 85-95Klbf of thrust. This could be made easier by using newer engines on the passenger A380-800, or using what ever engines might go on the A380-900.
  • Give it end-loading capability by swinging either the nose or tail.
  • Merge the flight decks, to allow oversized cargo or large containers. This would be a problem, as they are load-bearing and might potentially entail the toughest part. However, it is also not absolutely necessary to achieve our goal
You now have taken a superb package freighter and turned it into a heavy lifter for dense cargo.

[Edited 2006-11-09 03:14:18]
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
zvezda
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:17 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 31):
Well, now take the A380-800F and give it the following characteristics (admittedly not easy):

* Uprated engines. Between 85-95lbf of thrust. This could be made easier by using newer engines on the passenger A380-800, or using what ever engines might go on the A380-900.
* Give it end-loading capability by swinging either the nose or tail.
* Merge the flight decks, to allow oversized cargo or large containers. This would be a problem, as they are load-bearing and might potentially entail the toughest part. However, it is also not absolutely necessary to achieve our goal

You now have taken a superb package freighter and turned it into a heavy lifter for dense cargo.

No, tonne-mile costs would be even higher than now which is why it's not selling. Redesigning the WhaleJet to compete against the An-124 rather than against the B747-8F would not open a large market. Airbus would be lucky to sell ten.
 
pygmalion
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:17 am

Feb 2001 British Airways Fleet Planning Manager Dick Wyatt

Quote:
"We don't believe there will be a market for second-hand sale of A380s; it's going to be a very small market, very limited market, it's not a plane you can buy and then say, whoops, we shouldn't have done that, let's sell them. We'd be stuck with them. There's very few routes and therefore very few economies that the market will depend on. You only need one or two of those to turn against you and you're stuck with an aircraft that you can't use."
 
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glideslope
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:38 am

Quoting Adria (Reply 19):
Heeh, "launch aid" helped the 787 and Airbus has been a very successful and profitable airline in the past and it will be in the future. Your comment clearly shows that you are not capable of reading some financial facts about a company.

Speaking of capability: When did Airbus become an Airline?  scratchchin 
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
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glideslope
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:42 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 31):
Well, now take the A380-800F and give it the following characteristics (admittedly not easy):Uprated engines. Between 85-95Klbf of thrust. This could be made easier by using newer engines on the passenger A380-800, or using what ever engines might go on the A380-900.Give it end-loading capability by swinging either the nose or tail.Merge the flight decks, to allow oversized cargo or large containers. This would be a problem, as they are load-bearing and might potentially entail the toughest part. However, it is also not absolutely necessary to achieve our goalYou now have taken a superb package freighter and turned it into a heavy lifter for dense cargo.

For which you have NO R&D Funding. Airbus needs to build something out of the 350 mess or they are history. The 380F will be gone by the end of the year.
It's resources will be reassigned.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
A330323X
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:50 am

Quoting UPS Pilot (Reply 16):
The A380 was needed by both companies out of China for existing slots. It would give both a buy one get one free so to speak for each landing slot we have. The cancelation will force Fed EX to aquire more flights to China.

China cargo frequencies aren't nearly as in demand as you might think.

This year, 15 more frequencies were made available. FedEx applied for 4, Northwest applied for 4, Polar applied for 4, and UPS didn't even bother to apply for any. Everyone got all that they wanted, and there are still 3 frequencies sitting out there for anybody who wants them.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
swissy
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:56 am

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 29):
Airbus cannot afford to dump the A380 as a project financially, as they need the revenue stream, and the additional costs to be spent verses the future revenue stream would make dropping the program financially stupid,

Exactly my point.......

Quoting Curmudgeon (Reply 30):
The early program was promising, and on balance the smart money back then was on reaching break even + 100 or so frames. The 747 was replacing relatively inefficient airframes. The oil crunch of the mid 70's made CASM the most important factor, while the recession (stagflation) made RASM important too. Through that balancing act, and probably largely because of the range benefits, the 747 became a winner. CASM still rules, only now airlines don't have to risk diluting revenue to get it. As Zvezda and others have amply demonstrated, outside of the few slot constrained routes, the 787/A350 will be the new paradigm for long haul until the next generation.

As we all know the world is still turning.... and more and more airports will have no other choice and and will have to imply strict slot rules just like LHR and CASM/RASM will be secondary..... time will prove.

Cheers,
 
Jetfixr757
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 12:04 pm

5X needs to convert the 380's back to 300's and move on the 7478F that would be the right decision for 5x, the 74's can do a hell of a job and they know the dependability. It's a Boeing.
Jet
 
pygmalion
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 12:04 pm

Quoting Swissy (Reply 37):
As we all know the world is still turning.... and more and more airports will have no other choice and and will have to imply strict slot rules just like LHR and CASM/RASM will be secondary..... time will prove.

not in any near future and I am talking decades not years. Thousands of airports in the world and a handful (or less) are slot restricted. For cargo aircraft, even less so. So I agree with your premise, that some day slot restrictions might, and I emphasize might... drive larger aircraft. But that time is not now or the next twenty years either. Most cargo hubs are at outlying fields and are in no way slot restricted. cost per revenue ton is much much more important than size... and flexibility drives toward smaller, optimized aircraft not larger with the same CASM.
 
Carpethead
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 12:54 pm

Quoting Jetfixr757 (Reply 38):
5X needs to convert the 380's back to 300's

Problem is the A300/310 line is closing next year.

The biggest problem with the A380F is the logistical nightmare of procuring new equipment to load/unload freight on the upper deck. For example, UPS would need these loaders at each of its hubs like SDF, ANC, ONT in the US alone plus numerous oversea destinations where the A380F will see action. Airport operators sure aren't going to flip money at new equipment with only one or few carriers operating it. Meanwhile, main-deck loaders are available in numbers at most airports that handle a fair amount of cargo. What happens if the A380F has to divert or emergency to an airport that is totally unable to unload its freight. Talk about nightmare.
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 1:02 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 40):
What happens if the A380F has to divert or emergency to an airport that is totally unable to unload its freight. Talk about nightmare.

Look out below!
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 1:07 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 31):
Merge the flight decks, to allow oversized cargo or large containers



Quoting N328KF (Reply 31):
You now have taken a superb package freighter and turned it into a heavy lifter for dense cargo

Oversize (in height) cargo and dense cargo are very different animals, and you will almost never find cargo that fits both descriptions.

A dense cargo payload will cause the aircraft to hit max payload mass well before it cubes out, which makes packing tall pallets absolutely unnecessary. Ten foot tall pallets are good for low-density payloads, so the aircraft doesn't cube out before it hits max payload. This is one reason why the side door on the 747 is that tall, to make better use of the volume inside (the nose door has a much lower ceiling clearance) and it is also why the A380F was never intended to accommodate 10 foot pallets.

If the A380F is indeed mothballed (as I think is likely), I think they ought to consider someday redesigning for a higher payload, around 180 tonnes. This may be structurally prohibitive, but it could make the plane more efficient on a specific mass basis if payload grows by a greater margin than structural mass. That mass could be traded for a little bit of range, since 5600 nm is far above what seems to be needed or what Boeing offers. MTOW would need to grow quite a bit, to well above 600 tonnes.

I'll pass the Kool-Aid now, anyone?  yummy 

Quoting Jetfixr757 (Reply 38):
5X needs to convert the 380's back to 300's

I prefer to beat the A330F drums!! That would be a great freighter for UPS, especially with 787 engines. I give it an 80% chance of happening.
 
Jetfixr757
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 1:27 pm

Guys, the 330F is still on paper, the 300-600f is proven, the 747-F has been proven. FX is delving into uncharted ground with the 777F, they have never operated an ETOPS aircraft on an ETOPS program, 5X has, the ETOPS routes are longer than the non ETOPS routes, the MD11 and the 747 can do direct the 777 cannot. This is a point to ponder.
Jet
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 1:29 pm

Quoting Jetfixr757 (Reply 43):
Guys, the 330F is still on paper, the 300-600f is proven, the 747-F has been proven. FX is delving into uncharted ground with the 777F, they have never operated an ETOPS aircraft on an ETOPS program, 5X has, the ETOPS routes are longer than the non ETOPS routes, the MD11 and the 747 can do direct the 777 cannot. This is a point to ponder.
Jet

Do cargolifters give a crap about ETOPS?
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
masseybrown
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 1:39 pm

Accounting question:

Under generally accepted European accounting, if the A380F model were to be cancelled, would all identifiable "F" costs be written off at once or would they be written off over the life of the whole A380 program?

Thanks for any help with this.
 
Areopagus
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 2:54 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 30):
Give it end-loading capability by swinging either the nose or tail.

Swing-nose or swing-tail is a huge modification. It would need external aid to support the open section when it is swung open, like the 747LCF. That will require additional ground equipment and training, and impact turnaround time. The 747LCF accepts a weight penalty for its swing tail, as well.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 30):
Merge the flight decks, to allow oversized cargo or large containers. This would be a problem, as they are load-bearing and might potentially entail the toughest part.

I assume you mean load decks. They are indeed load-bearing, not only for the payload, but also to support the structure against pressurization stress. It's simply not going to happen, since it means a major redesign of the fuselage.
 
longhaulheavy
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 2:59 pm

Quoting N328KF (Reply 43):
Do cargolifters give a crap about ETOPS?

Just give the pilots a couple of chutes and a raft! Big grin
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 3:30 pm

Quoting Jetfixr757 (Reply 42):
5X has, the ETOPS routes are longer than the non ETOPS routes, the MD11 and the 747 can do direct the 777 cannot.

Please share the routes that UPS serves or plans to serve that cannot be flown by the 777 with 180 min. ETOPS or where the 777 routes would be longer than the MD11 or the 747.

While such routes do exist under current ETOPS rules they are all in the Southern Hemisphere between South Africa, Australia and South America. I didn't know UPS flies these routes.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 5:12 pm

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 11):
Read: France is willing to support Airbus with "launch aid" at whaterver cost (in the end, Airbus is a matter of national pride), but Germany is reluctant to "scratch the balls of a sleeping tiger", i.e. upset the USA and turn the issue into a full-front battle in the WTO

You read that if you want. I'll pass.

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 11):
. Leahy and the sales guys are pushing for a "plastic" plane to be able to present a meaningfull competitor to the B787, but the financial guys are saying that it is too expensive to develop, and the engineers are not sure if they can build one in due time

Now THIS is where the politics comes in, because changing from a metal to a plastic plane may well completely screw up the delicate and carefully worked-out work-share agreements between the partner nations.

I suspect changing from a metal plane to a plastic plane won't dramatically change either the development cost, or the engineering load - the A350XWB was all-new anyway.

Quoting PVG (Reply 16):
That's why they are in this mess! I hate to keep beating a dead horse, but they are never going to make a reasonable return on the A380. I can't understand why they don't just drop it and move on to bigger and better things

Simple. Because dropping the A380 would put Airbus in a WAY bigger financial hole than carrying on with it will, just at the time they need every euro to help with the A350XWB.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 28):
Airbus cannot afford to dump the A380 as a project financially, as they need the revenue stream, and the additional costs to be spent verses the future revenue stream would make dropping the program financially stupid,

 checkmark 

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 41):
I think they ought to consider someday redesigning for a higher payload, around 180 tonnes

FWIW, I think you've hit the nail right on the head. The A380 pax version offers a meaningful capability jump over the 748i, which justifies the operating economics vs. the purchase price (for those carriers confident of filling it  Smile ), whereas the A380F just doesn't offer enough additional capability that is valued by the customer base.

Regards
 
PEK18R36L
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RE: Airbus: A380F Program May Be Cancelled

Thu Nov 09, 2006 11:26 pm

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 17):
I do think that the inexorably expanding demand for air travel and air cargo almost guarantees the success of the A380.

Sit down one day with the leadership of JL or NH and talk to them about "inexorably expanding demand for air travel and air cargo" and the importance of VLAs in that equation. You might hear a different opinion.

Without getting into an argument about how much or how little the Japanese experience applies to global air travel, "inexorable" is a bit strong. There are a range of scenarios - ranging from a major conflict to a high-mortality pandemic to a run-up in fuel prices or even a global recession (and even much more subtle events) that could significantly alter the economics of operating A380s, regardless of whether you're hauling merchandise or backsides.

You might want to revise that "inexorable" to "likely" or even "possible."

But even if we grant that growth is inexorable, will the growth be fast enough to make VLAs more profitable for airlines on more than a small handful of routes? The difference of a few percentage points in global passenger or cargo growth can chance things significantly.

These are not academic questions - these are issues that plague the planners at airlines, especially those whose futures are more subject to market forces and less assured by government largesse.

David
In China, everything is possible - but nothing is easy.