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scbriml
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Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:14 am

Airbus just updated their sales spreadsheet.

Aer Lingus - 2 x A320
Air Blue - 2 x A320
Lufthansa - 5 x A319, 10 x A320, 15 x A321, 5 x A333
Blue Wings - 16 x A320, 4 x A321
Tiger Airways - 8 x A320
CASGC - 40 x A319, 60 x A320, 50 x A321
Skybus - 65 x A319

While a nice number, shame not to see more widebody orders firmed up. Nice sales for the A321.

Total sales for year to date now 508.

Total deliveries for year to date now 353.
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Floris
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:16 am

And depsite that they are now loss making... Wow. That's REALLY bad.
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:16 am

OK, so the bulk of those were the Chinese order...good for Airbus. However, a chilling number are for a DOA LCC.

Quoting Floris (Reply 1):
And depsite that they are now loss making... Wow. That's REALLY bad.

They only get to book deposits from these orders, which constitutes both an asset and a liability. It doesn't get booked as revenue until delivery.

[Edited 2006-11-09 18:18:24]
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bringiton
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:18 am

Great october for Airbus ! Hopefully Nov. and Dec. are just as good !
 
LGW
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:18 am

Were any of the deliveries on time? Big grin
 
BAtriple7
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:22 am

Quoting LGW (Reply 4):
Were any of the deliveries on time?

It says 'orders' in the title....not deliveries.  Yeah sure
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:30 am

Quoting LGW (Reply 4):
Were any of the deliveries on time?

All of them...............
 
airmailer
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:33 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 6):
All of them...............

............... that actually got delivered.
 
bringiton
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:35 am

Whats really worrying when you look at those figures is that with 460 odd Narrowbodies out of those 508 , 92% of the sales are of narrow bodies which dont have high profit margins (relativly) whereas their competitor has a better then 80-20 ratio b/w NB's and WB's inaddition to selling More NB's . This might not mean much this year however if this trend continues boeing will use those extra profits from high WB sales (particularly in the middle of the market) to Cross subsidize its NB product and capture market share .
 
NYC777
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:44 am

What were their cancellations like? I assume that the FedEx cancellation won't show up until next month's update.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:46 am

Quoting Scbriml (Thread starter):
While a nice number, shame not to see more widebody orders firmed up.



Quoting Bringiton (Reply 8):
Whats really worrying when you look at those figures is that with 460-odd narrowbodies out of those 508, 92% of the sales are of narrowbodies...

Narrowbodies are Airbus' strength, right now, so that is what is selling.

And selling mighty well, evidently.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:49 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Narrowbodies are Airbus' strength, right now, so that is what is selling.

I'm not disputing that, but there have been a lot of A330 commitments this year which have yet to be firmed up. It would have been nice to see a bit more balance.
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redflyer
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:49 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 9):
I assume that the FedEx cancellation won't show up until next month's update.

Does Airbus even show cancellations in the totals on their orders page?
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RichardPrice
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:49 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 8):
92% of the sales are of narrow bodies which dont have high profit margins (relativly)

Wheres the rational behind this statement? Do you know what the margins are for the A320 series?
 
RichardPrice
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:51 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 12):
Does Airbus even show cancellations in the totals on their orders page?

The spreadsheets show it, as does the order pages - when the cancellation has gone through.
 
NoWorries
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:51 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 2):
OK, so the bulk of those were the Chinese order...good for Airbus.

Are any/all of these scheduled to be assembled in China? Presumably the margins will be better on those planes.
 
bringiton
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:53 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Narrowbodies are Airbus' strength, right now, so that is what is selling.

NB's are their strengths for sure however given this trend (boeing has more NB's on order then Airbus's NB's and WB's combined) their ORDER VALUE will be shrinking as compared to their competitor which will reflect on profit . As the NB is very highly contested and the Main reason for Airlines being Price and availability ( the 2 products are so closely matched) It wouldnt be long before boeing starts to use the higher profits (from greater WB sales) to cross subsidize its NB product lines (offer them cheaper then what they are currently) which will have a cascading effect on "Economy's of scale" Couple that to the fact that there is a weaker dollar it will be very hard for Airbus to reverse that trend and might give boeing the Margin going into the next 5-8 years even in the NB segement (provided they ramp up ofcourse)

[Edited 2006-11-09 19:00:22]
 
redflyer
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:57 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 11):
there have been a lot of A330 commitments this year which have yet to be firmed up.

My guess is they'll firm them up on December 31, 2006.
My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
 
bringiton
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 2:58 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 13):
Wheres the rational behind this statement? Do you know what the margins are for the A320 series?

The fact that NB's have Lower Profit margins then WB's is widely acknowledged
 
RichardPrice
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:00 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 18):
The fact that NB's have Lower Profit margins then WB's is widely acknowledged

By who?
 
LY777
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:05 am

508?That is not bad.The problem is that except for a few orders, the orders are only for narrow bodies
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bringiton
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:11 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 19):
By who?

Fair use of some lines -

""What's more, narrowbodies typically have profit margins around 20% less than the bigger planes.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/.../jan2006/nf20060117_9445_db039.htm


There is also another article that was published last week which compared the profit margins (in relative terms and not in no.s) and it said that the A380 and 747 have the highest profit margins but a small market , the 737/320 have a lower profit margin but a big market while the Middle of the sector is a perfect balance between profit and Market size. I will try to find it and post that one aswell . Maybe someone else read it (could have been IHT ) and I'd appreciate it if they posted that.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:16 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 16):
NB's are their strengths for sure however given this trend...their ORDER VALUE will be shrinking as compared to their competitor which will reflect on profit.

Yes it will, but in Airbus' favor is there have been commitments for new A330 and A380s this year, plus once they are ready to formally offer the A350XWB for sale, many (if not most) of those orders should be converted based on the amount of compensation Airbus is setting aside due to the later EIS.

Quote:
As the NB is very highly contested and the main reason for airlines being price and availability...it wouldn't be long before Boeing starts to use the higher profits to cross-subsidize it's NB product lines...

Very true. However, Airbus does have the A320E up their sleeves which could help them preserve their margins a bit stronger plus operators who have already made large commitments to the A320 family will be more inclined to stay with it even if Boeing offers more favorable replies to RFPs.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:21 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 16):
(boeing has more NB's on order then Airbus's NB's and WB's combined)

Do you make this up as you go along? banghead 

Boeing has a 737 backlog of 1442 while Airbus has an A32x backlog of 1825.

Numbers from both manufacturer's websites.
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bringiton
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:22 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
Airbus does have the A320E up their sleeves

Has it been officially launched? Or is it going to be something that will just show up ? IIRC more the 50% of the Eff. gains over A320 would have been because of the Winglets a project that Airbus has now dropped so I wonder how much money airbus will be putting in and the return they'll be getting out of the other end . I highly doubt that Boeing can increase 737 Capacity to a level where Airbus really feels the pinch therefore IMO it would be wiser for Airbus to hold back and go at it in one go with the A320RS .


As far as the A350 orders are concerned havent the FIRM onse been allready counted (the onse signed last year for instance?
 
bringiton
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:24 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 23):
Do you make this up as you go along?

No I dont !

I was reffering to this FY and not the backlogs . We are talking about annual orders here as !
 
NYC777
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:25 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 23):
Do you make this up as you go along?

Boeing has a 737 backlog of 1442 while Airbus has an A32x backlog of 1825.

Numbers from both manufacturer's websites.

I believe he's talking about orders in 2006 only. That is certainly true.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:32 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 25):
No I dont !



Quoting NYC777 (Reply 26):

Accepted. But was far from clear from the post (IMHO). Must stop posting after a bottle of wine!

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 25):
We are talking about annual orders here as !

Strictly speaking, just October's! wink 
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NYC777
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:42 am

I wonder if China is going to order 150 more 737s?
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:44 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 24):
As far as the A350 orders are concerned haven't the FIRM ones been allready counted (the onse signed last year for instance)?

Yes, Airbus still apparently lists them on their latest spreadsheet as well as on their website table.

Still, re-confirmations will at least keep those numbers from decreasing.  Wink
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:47 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 28):
I wonder if China is going to order 150 more 737s?

Not unless Boeing builds a 737 plant in China  Wink .
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:56 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 28):
I wonder if China is going to order 150 more 737s?

More likely China will order 777s and 787s to offset the revenues going to Airbus via the factory. So less planes, but more value per plane.
 
WINGS
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 3:59 am

Well not bad for a months work. I was actually expecting some additional orders. I would expect to see Qantas 8x A388 + 2 A332 booked in November.

I would imagine that Airbus is still holding back on announcing additional orders. If they keep this pace up, then we sure will get a big surprise by the end of the year.

Regards,
Wings
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osiris30
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:04 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 32):
If they keep this pace up, then we sure will get a big surprise by the end of the year.

Would that be on December 46th again?  duck 
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WINGS
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:05 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 33):

Would that be on December 46th again?

Well yes that sounds about right. After all only today are we getting the details about orders booked in October.

Regards,
Wings
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:09 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 33):
Would that be on December 46th again?

Yes, around the middle of January they will announce their yearly sales and delivery totals. Just as they have every other year.
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DAYflyer
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:09 am

This order should just about be enough to offset the loss from the cancelled A-340-600 order by EK a couple weeks ago.
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:17 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 36):
This order should just about be enough to offset the loss from the cancelled A-340-600 order by EK a couple weeks ago.

Well if Airbus is charging a billion or two for an A340-600 - which would be necessary for 20 of them to equal the value of 275 A320s - then yeah, I can see why EK cancelled it...  Wow!  Wink  Silly
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:29 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 36):
This order should just about be enough to offset the loss from the cancelled A-340-600 order by EK a couple weeks ago.

Tim Clark of EK stated that "another customer" was taking those A346s, so not actually a loss to Airbus if true.
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jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:30 am

I'm glad to see Airbus had a nice month...its nice to see some parity between the two majour manufacturers...

Its in the best interest for the everyone to see this....

Cheers..
"Up the Irons!"
 
bringiton
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:31 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 38):
Tim Clark of EK stated that "another customer" was taking those A346s, so not actually a loss to Airbus if true

Any word on who it might be ?
 
osiris30
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:31 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):
Well if Airbus is charging a billion or two for an A340-600 - which would be necessary for 20 of them to equal the value of 275 A320s - then yeah, I can see why EK cancelled it...

Or maybe 10 firmly 100% cancelled Fedex A380Fs.. That's gotta be $1-$1.5B in real sales dollars that just walked away.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:35 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 40):
Any word on who it might be ?

Allegedly it's a new leasing company based in UAE. scratchchin 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:39 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 2):
However, a chilling number are for a DOA LCC.

Maybe, maybe not. If not, then that's at least 65 737s that Boeing didn't get to sell.
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UALMMFlyer
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:40 am

One of the criteria for making public announcement at Boeing is the payment of deposits by customers, IIRC.

Does Airbus use the same criteria in booking orders? If yes, then I am assuming the Chinese has paid deposits for 150 jets to Airbus, although the factory that will assemble these planes has not been built.

There is no set rules for announcing orders. Accounting for sale of jets are not the same as annoucing orders for products. Each company is free to set its own rule for public annoucements of orders. My question is more for my own benefit in learning how each company arrive at their firm-order numbers.

Thanks

[Edited 2006-11-09 20:42:00]

[Edited 2006-11-09 21:02:25]
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astuteman
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:42 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 18):
The fact that NB's have Lower Profit margins then WB's is widely acknowledged

If I could find the link it would help, but IIRC, "industry" acknowledges that margins on narrowbodys are c. 20% below those on widebody's...

e.g a 10% margin for a manufacturer might translate into 9% margin on narrowbodys, and 11% on widebodys.

Widebody's might be the holy grail, no doubt, but narrowbody sales shouldn't be sneezed at. They're very good business .  Smile

Regards
 
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N328KF
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:42 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 42):
Allegedly it's a new leasing company based in UAE.

Emirates Lease Finance Corporation?  Wink
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
ikramerica
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:43 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 17):
My guess is they'll firm them up on December 31, 2006.

Or my birthday, Jan 12.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 27):
Accepted. But was far from clear from the post (IMHO). Must stop posting after a bottle of wine!

Sure it was. Just because you didn't get it doesn't make it unclear. Everyone else understood...  Wink

Anyway, don't expect more new orders like this in Nov and Dec, but do expect a lot of firming of orders from the year.

Airbus has a huge "pending" total. China and SkyBus didn't come out of the column, they were new entries, but there aren't 2 more Chinas in the world, nor two more "aggressive" startups like SkyBus in the wings, either.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
osiris30
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:45 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 43):
Maybe, maybe not. If not, then that's at least 65 737s that Boeing didn't get to sell.

You're right.. that certainly makes Airbus feel better about the 400+ 330/350's they aren't selling due to the 787. That was a daft statement to make and totally unnecessary.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Sells 282 Planes In October

Fri Nov 10, 2006 4:48 am

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 44):
One of the criteria for making public announcement at Boeing is the payment of deposits by customern, IIRC.

Despite many claims to the contrary by the Airbus bashers here, Airbus is pretty much the same. Signed contract and deposit paid = firm order. Both manufacturers only list such orders on their respective websites.

Announcements for which a contract isn't signed or deposit paid are typically referred to as commitments by both Airbus and Boeing. And both will make such announcements, normally in association with the airline involved - QF's order for 787s was announced some time before the order was booked by Boeing. Another example is SQ's recent announcement that it was going to buy another 9 A380s. This commitment has yet to appear on Airbus's official order web site.
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