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Joined: Thu May 27, 1999 4:25 am

Recent Aviation News & Comments

Sun Jul 09, 2000 11:51 am

I'm surprised no one's posted the recent Reuters bylines regarding the 747X and the EADS IPO launch. I'm usually too lazy to start a thread on my own, but 2 days have passed and nothing.

1. 747X Press Release. Check the Friday news from Boeing. This launch appears to be definite with Boeing claiming an official launch within 6-9 months. This based on favorable airline reaction to both passenger and freighter versions. The company claims a 17% cost/mile advantage in the freighter version due to "middle floor" stregthening problems with the A3XX and a 4% advantage in the pax models. I think claims like this at such an early stage are questionable, but Airbus hasn't responsed beyond the usual comparisons toi the existing 744. KAL, the third largest freighter carrier operator in the world (surprise surprise to me at least) has declared interest in the Boeing model.

2. The EADS IPO is scheduled to go live in Paris, Frankfurt and Madrid on Monday. Why London wasn't included (#2 stcok trading market after the NYSE) wasn't discussed. The news here is that the shares are oversubscribed, meaning there is "little" demand for the stock. All analysts agree why. First and foremost is the A3XX project and the insane price tag. Second is the declining EU budget for military contracts beyond 2003. Also a factor is the dual leadership role of French and German CEOs combined with the French government's demand for a 15% ownership stake in the new company. All this is seen as detrimental to a competitive operating environment compared to EADS's biggest competitors, Lockheed and Boeing. FYI-Boeing is tipped to win the $200 billion contract for the JSF program with Lockheed playing a subcontracting role. Lifetime value of this program is estimated in excess of $400 billion with services, spares and foreign deals included.

This posts is long, but hope some of you have comments.
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RE: Recent Aviation News & Comments

Sun Jul 09, 2000 12:06 pm

Interesting stuff, but doesn't OverSubscribed mean there is more demand that there are issued shares rather than meaning demand is lower than the number of shares?

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RE: Recent Aviation News & Comments

Sun Jul 09, 2000 12:44 pm

This is why I do not feel sorry for Boeing. And we can all see why Boeing brought McDonell Douglas. Wingman,I have read in Defense Weekly that the new JSF fighter contract will be worth 200 to 250 billion dollars over ten to fifteen years. And that doesn't include spare parts. Can we say Cha-CHING!

For those who did not take economics 101,thats a heck of a lot of MONEY! Now would be a good time to by stock in Boeing while its in the low 40s.

Boeing has the former McDonell Douglas engineers to thank for this. Its safe to say,with the awarding of this JSF contract,Micky D has paid for itself in spades.

Thanks Wingman for the news.
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RE: Recent Aviation News & Comments

Sun Jul 09, 2000 1:08 pm

It is no surprise that Boeing will try to speed up the 747X and 747X Stretch launch to get part of the A3XX market. I agree that the 747X Stretch freighter has great appeal to the existing 747F operators and might eventually become the bestseller of all 747NG models. It will help if it really achieves the 17% cost/mile advantage over the A3XX-100F. Anyway, the 747X Stretch will be a sight I wouldn't want to miss.

Another rumor that's been going around is the A321-200 for British Airways. They have obviously converted some A320 options to the A321 for delivery Feb-01. Recently the heavier A321-200 has picked quite some attention...

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