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N328KF
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WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 2:42 pm

Brief fair use excerpt from The Wall Street Journal:

Quote:

Boeing Poised To Get $10 Billion In New Business

GE Subsidiary Is Expected To Unveil 777 Plane Deal At $3.5 Billion List Value

After winning 200 more airplane orders than it expected this year, Boeing Co. is poised to receive more than $10 billion worth of additional business in the coming weeks as airlines scramble to snap up delivery slots.

[...]

General Electric Co.'s Commercial Aviation Services leasing and finance unit is expected to announce as early as today that it is ordering 15 Boeing 777s in a deal valued at $3.5 billion at list prices, according to people familiar with the matter. The planes, which will be powered by GE-made engines, will be divided among the freighter and extended-range passenger versions of the 777, these people said.

According to people familiar with the matter, Boeing also has tentative deals with carriers in Europe and Asia for an additional 50 wide-body jets that could be announced before the end of the year. If this occurs, the Chicago aerospace company could approach the record year it had in 2005, with 1,028 net orders. Carriers such as Lufthansa, British Airways, Korean Air, Vietnam Airlines and Philippine Airlines have indicated they are in the market for a variety of airplanes.

[...]

Such deals often are delayed or fall through at the last minute, but due to a dwindling number of early delivery slots in Boeing's production schedule, airlines are quickly lining up. The waiting list to receive most Boeing airplanes is about two years. On some models, such as the 787 "Dreamliner," the earliest available slots for new customers are in 2013.

[...]

Boeing Poised To Get $10 Billion In New Business

As you can see, this article includes hard data on a couple of items of speculation. Specifically, we now know that the 787 is sold out through 2013. From reading the article, I interpreted 'next few weeks' to mean 'by the end of the year.'

[Edited 2006-11-15 06:43:30]
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BlatantEcho
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 3:14 pm

748 launch, or just more 777s and 787s?
They're not handing trophies out today
 
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fxramper
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 3:17 pm

Quoting N328KF (Thread starter):
we now know that the 787 is sold out through 2013

i smell a 2nd line opening...

i smell AA in the mix...

 airplane 
 
Ken777
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 3:51 pm

I think Boeing will be happy to surprise us.  Smile

The big question is if airlines are ready to order the 748i before the end of the year. I had figured on 2007.

The most exciting announcement (unless, of course, you're Airbus) would be the opening of a second 787 line, starting in 2010.

I would be surprised to see AA announce an order right now because of the labor situation with the pilots.
 
flydreamliner
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 4:12 pm

Quoting FXramper (Reply 2):

i smell AA in the mix...

AA, UA, and DL have yet to place their 787 orders. All three have 767 fleets to replace, and 787 is the only aircraft poised to replace 767 sized aircraft, as well as AA's A300 fleet. Between the 3 airlines, you could easily see 400 787s, ordered very likely in the next decade.

Those three alone could have their own line, much less if BA goes to replace its 767 fleet too.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
bringiton
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 4:20 pm

i dont think this supposed 10billion Dollar Order includes AA . Id expect a AA order to be vaulued at nearly that ammount on its own (60 + 60 options )
 
justloveplanes
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 9:47 pm

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 5):
i dont think this supposed 10billion Dollar Order includes AA . Id expect a AA order to be vaulued at nearly that ammount on its own (60 + 60 options )

I don't think AA, the article said Europe and Asia. I am thinking LH 777's as one of the orders.
 
boeingfever777
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 9:57 pm

Who is GECAS ordering (15) 777's for?

Not sure if this is a AA or BA order... The size of the order looks to be to small for either carrier.
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2wingtips
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 10:02 pm

GECAS are reported to be on the verge of an order for 15 777F/773ER and possibly 772LR.
BA will likely exercise it's options on 10 777s before year's end(it isn't a foregone conclusion these will be 773ERs).
VN is known to be looking at 10 more 787s and have the options to exercise.
The 36 787 slots relinquished by SU/LY and Arkia over the last few days will likely be snapped up before year's end(AA?).
PR is reportedly looking to order 6 773ER(although I always thought a 346 order was more likely), so I'm not sure about that one.
KE will likely order all Boeing for it's freight/pax order this year, estimated at 25+ 777F/748F and 773ER/748I/787.
50 more WB orders will easily be achieved by year's end IMO and more likely it will be 100+. Whether they will all be firmed up in 2006 is the question.
 
NYC777
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 10:19 pm

Currently there are two separate UFO orders for the 787, one is for 10 and another is for 11. I'm willing to bet one of these orders is for VN and will be announced this week as Pres. Bush is in Vietnam. If I werre to really put it out there then I say the UFO order for 11 is for VN and will be announced this week.

It fits in nicely with what the WSJ is saying....an Asian carrier and widebody order. I think part of the $10bn in orders are already booked as UFOs and all Boeing will be doing is revealing some of those UFO orders.

I do think there will be a separate large 787 order from AA and a 777 order from BA later this year.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
UALMMFlyer
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 11:20 pm

Wasn't China Airlines rumored to be ordering B748I? I can see BA ordering 77W,and possible SQ/BA orders 787 by taking over recent announced slot cancellation.

As others have mentioned KE is definitely a possibility. I am wondering who will be operating the 15 777s GE plans to purchase.

Are we likley to see China ordering more widebodies as a balance act to the recent 150 Airbus order?
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mptpa
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 11:39 pm

My guesses:

VN for B787 coincide with Pres. Bush's visit to Hanoi
LH for 748i
KE for 748F/748i/B77F/B777
BA for 10 B773
 
NYC777
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Wed Nov 15, 2006 11:51 pm

Quoting Mptpa (Reply 11):
LH for 748i

I think LH has ruled out a WB decision this year and I don't think anyone expects a 748I order this year.

I do think that KE will buy the 777f/77L/77W/748F this year.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
DLPMMM
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 1:17 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 12):
I don't think anyone expects a 748I order this year.

I keep hearing assurances of a 748i launch customer this year. I'm not going to hold my breath, but we will see.
 
bringiton
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 1:21 am

Lets assume that 10-11 of the 787's are for Vietnam . What about the remaining 40 odd? Who do you think will be ordering those? I beleive someone will take the 20 787 slots vacated by SU , I'll add a 787-8F order aswell but that still leaves out quite a few airframes unless someone orders big (20-30 airframes ).
 
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Stitch
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 1:30 am

 stirthepot 

Speculation is all over the map about LH's widebody plans. While I am on record saying LH won't buy the 773ER since they have the A346, could they now be considering a lease via GECAS?

As a 744 replacement on the more lightly-loaded routes, the 773ER would be more efficient then additional A346s and A346s are evidently not available for a few years, anyway. So a 10 to 12-year lease would give LH a breather to wait for the A350XWB-1000 to arrive whilst allowing them a more inexpensive option then a pure buy.

And since neither LH nor GE would need to announce whom the planes are for right away, LH could keep to their "2007" announcement schedule...
 
eraugrad02
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 4:40 am

I'm praying for a 747-8i order and hey even a few more 767 orders why not. lol. Its still a great airplane in its own right.
Desmond MacRae in ILM
 
bringiton
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 4:44 am

I call the following-

VN
BA
KE
PAL
 
andessmf
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 4:47 am

Quoting Bringiton (Reply 14):
I beleive someone will take the 20 787 slots vacated by SU

My thinking would be that the only reason those slots were vacated by Boeing was because they already had a customer ready to take them up, otherwise they would have kept those options open.
 
2wingtips
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 6:20 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 12):
I think LH has ruled out a WB decision this year and I don't think anyone expects a 748I order this year.

No they haven't. They have ruled out a Nov decision and said it is not likely in Dec., but they haven't quite ruled it out.....yet.
 
kaitak
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 6:40 am

I thought Mayrhuber pretty much ruled out an order before the end of the year, so I really would not expect Lufty. (I do expect it early in the new year).

I'm expecting an Aer Lingus order in the near future, although again, I can't say for definite if it will be before the year end, but it certainly would not surprise me.

What I think will be very interesting will be the fate of the SU/IZ/LY production slots; when you add these to some of the unfilled leasing company orders (ILFC still has seven, LCAL and Pegasus, 6 each) there is enough there to fill a very substantial commitment.

The only two certainties I can see right now are GECAS and Korean Air (for 747-8Is and 772LRFs). However, if I had to name a third airline, I think BA would be high on the list. BA was mentioned (albeit by an SU official) as being interested in 787s and we know they have a commitment to around 10 777s, so it's not impossible they may place a firm order, PARTICULARLY if their pension issues are sorted out.

Other than those, what about Asiana (for 787s) or (as mentioned above), more KLM 773ERs or CAL for 747-8Is? I think, however, that these are less likely.

Ah, the joy of new orders!
 
Devilfish
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 7:15 am

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 8):
PR is reportedly looking to order 6 773ER(although I always thought a 346 order was more likely), so I'm not sure about that one.

PR had publicly stated that they were considering the A346 and B773ER and is also on record as wanting an all-Airbus fleet. However, their financial situation and previous contractual commitments might prevent a totally-free choice. In any case, any order by them would likely be through a leasing company like GECAS.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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PanAm_DC10
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 7:34 am

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 21):
is also on record as wanting an all-Airbus fleet.

That was only in relation to their NB fleet and not their long haul fleet. I actually would not rule them out, just yet.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 20):
when you add these to some of the unfilled leasing company orders (ILFC still has seven, LCAL and Pegasus, 6 each)

Who have ILFC placed all but 7 of their 787s with? I have;

3 x Aero Mexico
2 x Air Seychelles + 2 options
2 x FlyGlobespan

Yet ILFC have 22 on order, interesting Boeings press release on AM stated they only had 20 on order and at Farnborough Mr Udvar-Hazy stated the 787 order for 2 was a "top up" order which implies all are placed, any clarification would be appreciated. Pegasus have 4 of theirs placed with Blue Panorama so there may not be as many frames from leasing co's as expected. Not sure of CITs order.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 20):
PARTICULARLY if their pension issues are sorted out.

They made some rather good progress on that front yesterday actually and I feel they'll take their 10 777s

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 13):
I keep hearing assurances of a 748i launch customer this year. I'm not going to hold my breath, but we will see.

So true, perhaps we'll just have an announcement with no signing until next year. Demand for the 748-F is rapidly taking up production slots.

Regards, PanAm_DC10
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trex8
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 8:08 am

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 10):
Wasn't China Airlines rumored to be ordering B748I?

they said earlier this year with reduced profits from higher fuel prices, their long haul widebody replacement is delayed
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Week

Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:41 am

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Reply 22):
Mr Udvar-Hazy stated the 787 order for 2 was a "top up" order which implies all are placed, any clarification would be appreciated.

I am quoting from memory, but I seem to recollect that Fyfe said at the time of the NZ switch to the 787-9's that they might pick up a couple of 787-8's . They are regular ILFC customers, maybe the extra two are to cover off NZ.
 
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ER757
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RE: WSJ: $10bil In New BCA Orders In The Next Weeks

Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:45 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 20):
what about Asiana (for 787s)

I've been thinking that for a while now - that's as good a guess as any.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 20):
I'm expecting an Aer Lingus order in the near future,

Do you think they'd go with Boeing aircraft? I'd be surprised if they did, but I would imagine you'd have better insight on that matter than I. Would like to hear your thoughts......