JAM747
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Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Fri Nov 24, 2006 11:48 pm

Not sure if this posted before buit Airbus is confident in BA being a customer for the A380 as Airbus forcast for demand for large aircraft has increased.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article2007529.ece
 
PADSpot
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:00 am

Well, there isn't really much space for a future BA business strategy that can do without the A380 given the restrictions of LHR. Of course BA would never admit that as it would just weaken their position ...

The few seats that th B748I has more than the B744 do not really solve that issue ... 100-150 seats more an a A380 could help a lot though.
 
atmx2000
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:17 am

Quoting JAM747 (Thread starter):
Not sure if this posted before buit Airbus is confident in BA being a customer for the A380 as Airbus forcast for demand for large aircraft has increased.

Surely Airbus must realize that saying an airline will buy their aircraft is a bit arrogant and presumptious.

Quoting PADSpot (Reply 1):
Well, there isn't really much space for a future BA business strategy that can do without the A380 given the restrictions of LHR. Of course BA would never admit that as it would just weaken their position ...

BA has plenty of slots at LHR. And as noted, the current A380 separation rules probably decrease capacity into the airport. And with European labor being high priced, additional capacity that only ends up bringing in low revenue customers may not be so attractive.
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osiris30
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:21 am

In other news: I predict the Swedish bikini team will be stopping by my house this weekend for a 'sexy party' (quote Stewy from Family Guy).

Vegas odds makers are giving myself and Airbus the same odds of success.
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Johnny
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:22 am

BA has no other choice.

Their main competitors like EK,KE,SQ,TG and partners like QF and possibly CX will operate the bird into LHR as well.

Not to mention the order from VS...

This bird will be the flagship of the 21st century.

Johnny
 
legoguy
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:24 am

Could Airbus know something we do not know regarding BA's position?
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na
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:30 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
This bird will be the flagship of the 21st century.

Capacity, not frequency is the future of international megacity air traffic, BA being a schoolbook example for an airline were that is key to future success. Its almost anachronistic how much air traffic passes over London´s city still these days. I´m there quite often and its odd to see that especially the better districts of London (which are in the west and soutwest) are affected by this. Operating two 777s or the like instead of one A380 means twice as much noise (or actually more, as the A380, which I´ve seen flying twice, is the quietest airliner I´ve ever witnessed), a higher accident risk, less crews to pay for, higher fares...
 
DLPMMM
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:37 am

Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

 redflag 

The thread title is very misleading.

The only statement refering to BA is

"John Leahy, Airbus's chief commercial officer, said: "I'd like to think it is a matter of when, not if, BA will be flying the A380.""

This is anything but a prediction. It is what Leahy said he would like!

People should read the articles before commenting.
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:39 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
BA has no other choice.

Their main competitors like EK,KE,SQ,TG and partners like QF and possibly CX will operate the bird into LHR as well.

Since when does competitors operating one plane mean you have to operate that plane as well?

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
Not to mention the order from VS...

Which VS itself chose to delay for quite a few years.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
This bird will be the flagship of the 21st century.

Same has been said about the 777, yet not everybody operates them. Now does that make LH or QF weak competitors for SQ or EK? I think not.
And of course, just for reference, a few flagship carriers that have not ordered the A380: ANA, JAL, British Airways, Air Canada, American, Continental, Northwest, Delta, United, TAM, SAA.
Again, are those carriers inferior to A380 operators? Definitely not.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:46 am

Quoting NA (Reply 6):
Its almost anachronistic how much air traffic passes over London´s city still these days.

How many of these are A320, 737 and smaller?
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Johnny
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:50 am

@DAL767-400ER

I know we usually never agree...

To answer your points:
-I believe that airlines will buy the A388 because their biggest competitor has done it! This is like the introdution of the B747 some thirty years ago.

-VS has delayed,but not canceled the bird.

-The B777 is also THE flagship of the 21st century?!? LOL!!! That is really funny!

Johnny
 
osiris30
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 12:59 am

Ok guys, let me post a question to you here... Maybe I can possibly get you to see why, for all intents and purposes the 380 is 'doomed'.

Here's the question (actually there's two):

1) If Airbus sells 300 380s and Boeing doesn't sell a similar number of 748s in the next 5 years, do you really think Boeing won't develop a competitor?

2) If Boeing develops a competitor using technology 10-15 years advanced over the 380, do you really think the 380 will have a leg to stand on?

(Any following questions are rhetorical in nature)

Remember Airbus needs to sell 420 of these things to break-even. Do you think Boeing will let them get that far? I mean do you really think they would allow such a thing to happen. How do you think an AL 380 will fair vs. a CFRP Boeing replacement? How do you think a 380 will fair against new gen engines? How much does re-engining the 380 push out the break-even point?

If you can honestly answer those questions and come away with anything other than a negative outlook on the 380, you are a very 'special' kind of person  Smile
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Rj111
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:09 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
1) If Airbus sells 300 380s and Boeing doesn't sell a similar number of 748s in the next 5 years, do you really think Boeing won't develop a competitor?

Market saturation mean anything to you?
 
jacobin777
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:14 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 10):

-The B777 is also THE flagship of the 21st century?!? LOL!!! That is really funny!

Why is that "funny"? For many carriers, the 777 is their flagship product...

Maybe those carriers mentioned below disagree with you Johnny.. Wink

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 8):

Same has been said about the 777, yet not everybody operates them. Now does that make LH or QF weak competitors for SQ or EK? I think not.
And of course, just for reference, a few flagship carriers that have not ordered the A380: ANA, JAL, British Airways, Air Canada, American, Continental, Northwest, Delta, United, TAM, SAA.
Again, are those carriers inferior to A380 operators? Definitely not.

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osiris30
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:17 am

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 12):
Market saturation mean anything to you?

RJ111: Yes it does. But you didn't answer my question. Airbus says it's a > 1000 plane market over the next 20 years. 300 in 5 years isn't close to long-term saturation. If sales start proving those numbers (so far they aren't CLOSE to proving those number) then do you expect Boeing will sit there and go "geee it's a shame we didn't offer a like-sized competitor... oh well!"
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Johnny
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:21 am

@Jacobin777

I was not talking about specific airlines´flagship, but about THE flagship at all!!!

And that is the A388 without any doubt.


Johnny
 
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scbriml
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:22 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 2):
Surely Airbus must realize that saying an airline will buy their aircraft is a bit arrogant and presumptious.

Did you actually read the link? The only person speaking like that is the journalist.

Quote:
John Leahy, Airbus's chief commercial officer, said: "I'd like to think it is a matter of when, not if, BA will be flying the A380."

That's hardly arrogant is it?
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osiris30
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:23 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 15):
And that is the A388 without any doubt.

That is a HIGHLY debatable point. What makes a flag ship? Well I would say it has to be in service, so for now the 380 is out. Then the next question is (assuming we're looking down the road), is it passenger comfort, if that's the case I'll take a 787 for my comfort thanks.
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briguy1974
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:25 am

Lets not be foolish... A380 flagship??? Lets get the plane in commercial service first, second lets see some proof that this airplane actually makes its manufacturer some money and last a flagship that does not fly with one American Airline. (UPS excluded) You have got to be kidding. Look at aviation numbers. Where are the largest airlines. Busiest airports??? Come on now. Not one American Airline will order this plane. The largest and busiest airports in the world including JFK, LAX, ATL, ORD are looking at 2- 10 A380 operations a day max... And that is 10 years off yet.... Flagship my butt.
 
jimyvr
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:25 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
possibly CX will operate the bird into LHR as well.

Yeah, possibly. Probably they'll stay away from 747-8 together with A380, since they didn't throw any clues out

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
This bird will be the flagship of the 21st century

Like Concorde, the flagship of the 20st century.

Quoting Johnny (Reply 10):

-VS has delayed,but not canceled the bird.

Well, they're swinging in between the word "keep" and "cancel"

Quoting Johnny (Reply 10):
-The B777 is also THE flagship of the 21st century?!? LOL!!! That is really funny!

Just like you say "This bird will be the flagship of the 21st century". We're only in the 7th year of the 21st century and you quickly jump into conclusion right away.
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wheelsatc
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:25 am

If BA orders the A380 it is just extra economy seats that it won't be able to fill. The A380 is a disaster and will hopefully be proved so. I hope and think that BA will wait for the superior Boeing products that are bettered suited to its business model, BA is concerned with quality not quantity!
 
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yowza
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:31 am

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 8):
Since when does competitors operating one plane mean you have to operate that plane as well?

Well this is not a case of an airline choosing between two similar frames because their competitors did so. The simple reason being there is no aircraft with comparable capacity. This is not like Airbus saying BA will choose the 340 because VS operate it.

It would not look half bad either:
BA A380

YOWza

[Edited 2006-11-24 17:45:49]

[Edited 2006-11-24 17:46:33]

[Edited 2006-11-24 17:47:21]
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:33 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
Their main competitors like EK,KE,SQ,TG and partners like QF and possibly CX will operate the bird into LHR as well.

But BA is considering pulling out of the "Kangaroo Route" because of low yields and scores of A388s added to that route every day sure isn't going to help that matter.

If anything, perhaps it will be BA who launches 772LR direct service LHR-SYD because they can make it work because it will be the only service they offer to their frequent fliers so they can tailor the demand curve to make it profitable.

Quote:
Not to mention the order from VS...

Assuming VS takes the planes, of course.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
If Airbus sells 300 380s and Boeing doesn't sell a similar number of 748s in the next 5 years, do you really think Boeing won't develop a competitor?

Yes. Because such an additional sales total would just cover the A388's program costs and at that point, Airbus can become aggressive on pricing, shutting out Boeing.

Quote:
If Boeing develops a competitor using technology 10-15 years advanced over the 380, do you really think the 380 will have a leg to stand on?

No, because the CASM advantage would be more significant. However, Boeing has done far better spending those monies on a wider product line (747/777/787). Unless the A388 is scoring closer to 1000 frames then 500, I can't see Boeing viewing the risk being worth it.

Quote:
Remember Airbus needs to sell 420 of these things to break-even. Do you think Boeing will let them get that far? I mean do you really think they would allow such a thing to happen.

How, exactly, can they stop it?

Sure, they could do what many accuse Airbus of doing and offer the 747-8 at "half-off" ($150 million a frame instead of $300 million). That should win them a whole slew of orders, most of them at the expense of the 777-300ER. As a former Boeing shareholder, I can assure you I would not take too kindly to Boeing losing $50-100 million a frame vs. what they could sell a 773ER for and I imagine I'd not be alone in that view...



One thing to note is that while the Boeing aficionados all tout how important and compelling the 787's and 777's sales lead is in marginalizing future A350 sales, the same thing applies to the A388's lead vs. some future Boeing "wonder VLA".

Either the market for a 500+ seat VLA is very small, in which case the cost of producing one is superfluous for Boeing, or the VLA market is very big, and Airbus' two decades alone in the market will give them a significant foundation to build from while Boeing will need to break-in at the ground floor. Essentially, what 2000 was for Airbus and the A388 vs. the established 747 and 777 market will be 2020 for Boeing and their VLA vs. the established A388 and A350XWB market.

That's not to say Boeing can't do it, of course. But as we have just seen today with the cancellation of the launch meeting, Airbus has spent so much money on the A388 program that they can't afford to launch the A350XWB. Yet Boeing is so cash-flush right now thanks to strong 777 sales they can fund much of the 787 program "out of pocket" and that program will fund the 737RS.

In 2020, Boeing will have to send $15-20 billion to a "black hole" to develop their own VLA, while Airbus is reaping billions from the A388 program and seeing monies starting to flow in from the A350XWB program.

If Airbus comes up with their own "game changer", how will Boeing be able to respond? What if the narrowbody replacement program is delayed until the latter half of the 2010's and Boeing is so invested in the VLA they can't launch the 737RS when Airbus launches an A320RS that is as revolutionary in design and production as the 787 was to it's predecessors?

Will the first half of the 2020's on this board be like the first half of the 2000's, except the "topic du jour" is how Boeing is "doomed to fail" and "clueless" and all the other invectives being tossed at Airbus and the A388 now?



[Edited 2006-11-24 17:39:20]
 
RedChili
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:36 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 2):
BA has plenty of slots at LHR.

But all those slots are already being used. BA has no free/unused slots at LHR, and they can't get any more slots either.

Quoting Legoguy (Reply 5):
Could Airbus know something we do not know regarding BA's position?

Surely. The question is whether they were speaking the full truth, or if they for some reason want to paint a rosy picture of the A380s future, e.g. in order to convince EADS to go along with the XWB. Doing that would, in my opinion, be extremely risky. I hope that the Airbus managers are wiser than that.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 7):
The thread title is very misleading.

The only statement refering to BA is

"John Leahy, Airbus's chief commercial officer, said: "I'd like to think it is a matter of when, not if, BA will be flying the A380.""

This is the only direct quote from Airbus, but there were other sentences also, like: "Airbus forecasts that by 2020 some 85 superjumbos a day will be landing at Heathrow airport - many of them in the livery of BA." Unfortunately, we don't know whether this sentence was based upon a direct quote from an Airbus executive or if the reporter misunderstood something that Airbus said.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 8):
American, Continental, Northwest, Delta, United,

I didn't know that the US had so many flag carriers...

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
If Airbus sells 300 380s and Boeing doesn't sell a similar number of 748s in the next 5 years, do you really think Boeing won't develop a competitor?

Boeing has stated that they chose the "cheap way" of upgrading the 747 because they believe that the market isn't big enough for two brand-new VLAs. If Airbus would be able to sell more VLAs than what Boeing has forecast, then Boeing would develop their own new VLA to compete with Airbus. I don't have the numbers right now, but I believe that your figure of 300 A380s is well below the number that Boeing has forecast for the A380. So the answer to your question is: No, Boeing will not develop a brand new competitor if Airbus sells only 300 A380s during the coming five years.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
If Boeing develops a competitor using technology 10-15 years advanced over the 380, do you really think the 380 will have a leg to stand on?

Again, Boeing will commit to develop this competitor only after Airbus has sold enough A380s to break even.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
Remember Airbus needs to sell 420 of these things to break-even. Do you think Boeing will let them get that far?

Yes, because Boeing has stated in their market outlook that they are not interested in competing with a brand new VLA if the market is so small.
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:44 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 23):
But all those slots are already being used. BA has no free/unused slots at LHR, and they can't get any more slots either.

Nothing is stopping BA from buying more slots from other operators. It's just a question of money - same as it is for any operator at LHR.

Plus nothing is stopping BA from adjusting slots via frequencies. If they're flying two A319s an hour to MAN, why not fly one A321 and open a slot?

Quoting RedChili (Reply 23):
I didn't know that the US had so many flag carriers...

They all fly the American flag next to their "N"-series registrations.  Wink

Seriously, while "flag carrier" might have meant "government owned" in the 20th century, in the 21st, it's more apt to define it as "where one's corporation is chartered".
 
Rj111
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:48 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 14):
But you didn't answer my question. Airbus says it's a > 1000 plane market over the next 20 years. 300 in 5 years isn't close to long-term saturation.

....and there's every chance Airbus will be wrong. You said it yourself.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 14):
(so far they aren't CLOSE to proving those number)

Boeing Aren't going to launch a competitior just to ruins Airbus' fun. They'll want solid argument for ROI themselves.
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:48 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 10):
-I believe that airlines will buy the A388 because their biggest competitor has done it! This is like the introdution of the B747 some thirty years ago.

Thing is, we have the year 2006, and since the 747 was introduced, we have had a serious oil crisis in the 70's, multiple Gulf Wars, and 9/11. back in the golden days of aviation, it was all about status. Nowadays, it's all about efficiency/costs. The A380 is a completely new plane for any airline operation it, and only shares somewhat commonality with the A340 and A330 (neither of which BA operates btw).

Quoting RedChili (Reply 23):
But all those slots are already being used. BA has no free/unused slots at LHR, and they can't get any more slots either.

Perhaps, but the thing is, with the A380 and it's increased seperations, some of those slots could become useless for BA if e.g. they schedule 3 A380 departures in a timeframe that could see 4 747/777s.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 23):
I didn't know that the US had so many flag carriers...

That's the joy of actually being able to choose between multiple big player in the longhaul business unlike Germany for example  Wink .
 
osiris30
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 1:49 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
Yes. Because such an additional sales total would just cover the A388's program costs and at that point, Airbus can become aggressive on pricing, shutting out Boeing.

They would ?be at? break-even at that point. It's not likely they could afford to cut the price too heavily. But, ok, let's assume that happens. Who say's Boeing won't chase that market anyway. Especially if Boeing will have (almost certainly) lower production costs per unit.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
No, because the CASM advantage would be more significant. However, Boeing has done far better spending those monies on a wider product line (747/777/787). Unless the A388 is scoring closer to 1000 frames then 500, I can't see Boeing viewing the risk being worth it.

My point was Boeing working on that doesn't mean anything else has to suffer. Boeing is (and will be for the foreseeable) in a very strong cash position and can afford to work on a couple of things at once. I would wager Boeing has done some very preliminary studies on a 380 replacement, "just in case".

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
How, exactly, can they stop it?

CFRP two deck airliner with 8500nm range.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
One thing to note is that while the Boeing aficionados all tout how important and compelling the 787's and 777's sales lead is in marginalizing future A350 sales, the same thing applies to the A388's lead vs. some future Boeing "wonder VLA".

No it's NOT the same thing: 787 is same technology generation as 350. As such the 350 offers no major advantage over the 787. The 350 DOES offer some advantage over the 777, and will take significant orders, if and when it is launched (assuming the 777 isn't brought up to spec). A CFRP Boeing 380 would offer such huge advantages over the A380 that your point is irrelevant.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
Either the market for a 500+ seat VLA is very small, in which case the cost of producing one is superfluous for Boeing, or the VLA market is very big, and Airbus' two decades alone in the market will give them a significant foundation to build from while Boeing will need to break-in at the ground floor.

You're being disingenuous here. Boeing has 40 years experience in VLA (or very closely sized aircraft). Futther more you're saying Airbus has 20 years experience when they don't even have one of said aircraft in revenue service.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
In 2020,

I said in the next 5 years. That's 2011.. EIS of 2014. Hardly 2020. I expect better from you that that.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
What if the narrowbody replacement program is delayed until the latter half of the 2010's and Boeing is so invested in the VLA they can't launch the 737RS when Airbus launches an A320RS that is as revolutionary in design and production as the 787 was to it's predecessors?

Seeing as Boeing is already working on Y1 and will like EIS it close to the time the 350 enters service I don't see your point. The entire point of the Y project was commonality. Work done on Y2 is applicable to Ys 1 and 3. Boeing is looking for a 3 year announce to launch cycle. They can do two aircraft in the time it's going to take Airbus to build the 350 alone.
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osiris30
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:00 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 23):
don't have the numbers right now, but I believe that your figure of 300 A380s is well below the number that Boeing has forecast for the A380. So the answer to your question is: No, Boeing will not develop a brand new competitor if Airbus sells only 300 A380s during the coming five years.

That's 300 over 5 years, which I believe would be way above Boeing's forecasts. Boeing sees the 747_380 at 990 planes through 2025. That's 49.5 a year. Given Airbus 75% of the market: 37.125 a year. 300/5 is nearly twice that number which would be enough for them to move IMHO.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 23):
Yes, because Boeing has stated in their market outlook that they are not interested in competing with a brand new VLA if the market is so small.

If Airbus sells 380s at a rate of 60 a year for 5 years, Boeing would be forced to admit they are wrong. I'm intentionally playing devil's advocate here guys. This post is addressed at those folks that seem to think Boeing is dead wrong and Airbus is bound to sell buckets full of 380s. Please don't mix and match scenarios  Smile

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 25):

....and there's every chance Airbus will be wrong. You said it yourself.

But if they are they won't sell 300 in the next 5 years. Geeze. Come on guys. If Airbus isn't right then the entire scenario I've laid out obviously won't happen. Including the sales. I'm playing devil's advocate.

My point:

There are people who think that:
a) There is a big market for the 380
b) The market belongs to the 380 because Boeing doesn't have a 380 class aircraft.

I'm trying to show that if (a) is true, you can count on (b) not being true. The 380 boosters are taking the best from both sides of the arguement in an attempt to feel better about an abject failure of an aircraft.
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:12 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 27):
They would be at break-even at that point. It's not likely they could afford to cut the price too heavily. But, ok, let's assume that happens. Who say's Boeing won't chase that market anyway. Especially if Boeing will have (almost certainly) lower production costs per unit.

But Boeing will also have eleven figures invested into the program that they need to generate a return on. As has been pointed out with the A388, it's not enough to make a profit on the raw production cost with each frame. One also needs to make a return on the initial investment with each frame. Airbus will have already done that and even with their extra production cost, chances are it will be less then what Boeing needs to make in production and program repayment costs. Or even if it isn't, I doubt Boeing is going to be able to undercut Airbus by tens of millions per frame...

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 27):
My point was Boeing working on that doesn't mean anything else has to suffer...I would wager Boeing has done some very preliminary studies on a 380 replacement, "just in case".

I am sure they have. But I know that you know funding a study program is a lot cheaper then funding a production program.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 27):
You're being disingenuous here. Boeing has 40 years experience in VLA (or very closely sized aircraft). Further more you're saying Airbus has 20 years experience when they don't even have one of said aircraft in revenue service.

I believe I'm being realistic. I am aware of Boeing's familiarity with large planes and have noted on many occasions that if Boeing had launched a "clean CAD" VLA in concurrence with the A388, chances are it would have won the lion's share of current orders, putting Airbus really behind the eight-ball.

But even with no experience, the A388 convinced a number of airlines - many of them large and long-term 747 operators - to buy it over no less then four follow-on versions of the 747. It did it thanks to CASM and technology and prestige.

Even assuming Airbus' numbers are the right ones "now", will they be the right ones "later"? Even if the A388 sees an additional 300 orders in five years to feed the hubs, does that mean that the "spoke-hub-hub-spoke" model will remain the "correct" one ten years from now? Fifteen? Twenty? Or is it just the last gasp and future travel will become more fragmented and the A388's in the air will be sufficient to handle what traffic does fly between a few super-congested hubs?

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 27):
I said in the next 5 years. That's 2011.. EIS of 2014. Hardly 2020. I expect better from you that that.

I don't believe Boeing is in a position to launch a VLA and get it into service in five years. Not with future variants of the 787 program, improvements to the 777, and the possibility of the Y1 launch. They don't have the time, the staff, or the money, IMO.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 27):
Seeing as Boeing is already working on Y1 and will like EIS it close to the time the 350 enters service I don't see your point.

The big hold-up on the Y1 and A320RS is the engines. Sure, Boeing could probably launch Y1 "at will" (within reason), but unless Airbus can sell every extra A320 they're ramping up to build at the direct expense of a 737NG sale, I don't think Boeing is going to rush forward with Y1 unless they are absolutely positive how the new engines are going to play with Y1's economics and can sell it to the airlines on a "buy now, upgrade later" program in terms of powerplants.
 
Rj111
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:26 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 28):
But if they are they won't sell 300 in the next 5 years.

What?????  banghead  They'll be wrong if they don't sell 1000 in 20 years. They can sell 999 in the next 5 years and still be wrong.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 28):
I'm playing devil's advocate.

Yeah, you're playing devil's advocate.  Yeah sure

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
Maybe I can possibly get you to see why, for all intents and purposes the 380 is 'doomed'.
 
osiris30
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:37 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
But Boeing will also have eleven figures invested into the program that they need to generate a return on. As has been pointed out with the A388, it's not enough to make a profit on the raw production cost with each frame. One also needs to make a return on the initial investment with each frame. Airbus will have already done that and even with their extra production cost, chances are it will be less then what Boeing needs to make in production and program repayment costs. Or even if it isn't, I doubt Boeing is going to be able to undercut Airbus by tens of millions per frame...



Quoting Stitch (Reply 22):
In 2020, Boeing will have to send $15-20 billion to a "black hole" to develop their own VLA, while Airbus is reaping billions from the A388 program and seeing monies starting to flow in from the A350XWB program.

Pick you arguement and stick to it.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 27):
You're being disingenuous here. Boeing has 40 years experience in VLA (or very closely sized aircraft). Further more you're saying Airbus has 20 years experience when they don't even have one of said aircraft in revenue service.

I believe I'm being realistic. I am aware of Boeing's familiarity with large planes and have noted on many occasions that if Boeing had launched a "clean CAD" VLA in concurrence with the A388, chances are it would have won the lion's share of current orders, putting Airbus really behind the eight-ball.

How does that response have anything to do with the fact you're discounting 40 years of experience while creditting Airbus with 20 they don't have.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 27):
I said in the next 5 years. That's 2011.. EIS of 2014. Hardly 2020. I expect better from you that that.

I don't believe Boeing is in a position to launch a VLA and get it into service in five years. Not with future variants of the 787 program, improvements to the 777, and the possibility of the Y1 launch. They don't have the time, the staff, or the money, IMO.

Maybe I'm not following. I'm saying EIS in 8 years. A decision in 5. Boeing has publically stated their future dev cycle is 3 years from decision to EIS.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 29):
I don't think Boeing is going to rush forward with Y1 unless they are absolutely positive how the new engines are going to play with Y1's economics and can sell it to the airlines on a "buy now, upgrade later" program in terms of powerplants.

That's a call that's completely up to Boeing. If they tell engine makers to build to spec X they will. And they did with the common engine mount on the 787.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
na
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:45 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 9):
How many of these are A320, 737 and smaller?

I can only compare longdistance traffic. And LHR has a very high percentage of these.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 13):
Quoting Johnny (Reply 10):
-The B777 is also THE flagship of the 21st century?!? LOL!!! That is really funny!
Why is that "funny"? For many carriers, the 777 is their flagship product...

Yeah, and the Navy of Turkmenistan has a row-boat as flagship.
Overall the 777 (as well as the A340/330 of cause) is not a worthy flagship for a major international airline. Its only for those second-tier airlines who can´t fill a 747 or A380.
 
osiris30
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:47 am

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 30):
Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 28):
But if they are they won't sell 300 in the next 5 years.

What????? They'll be wrong if they don't sell 1000 in 20 years. They can sell 999 in the next 5 years and still be wrong.

I'm making the assumption. No **it they could sell 1000 on the last day before the 20th year and be right.. but that's unlikely. As time goes on the odds of the 380 selling decline as other aircraft come to market that are more efficient. As more time passes the odds of additional work being done to update the 380 fade if sales aren't there. Very few planes sell better at their end of life than in the first 5-10 years of life.

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 30):
Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 28):
I'm playing devil's advocate.

Yeah, you're playing devil's advocate.

My arguements are predicated around the fact that A380 supporters are right and the market does in fact exist. That's where I'm playing devil's advocate. Seeing as I consider the market to not exist, I'm intentionally taking the counter position, saying what if it does exist.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
RedChili
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:53 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
Nothing is stopping BA from buying more slots from other operators.

Theoretically, maybe there isn't, and maybe they can get one or two slots. But a meaningful number of slots would obviously be extremely expensive. I mean, if 50 slots were up for sale, it's unlikely that BA could afford to buy all of them. It's more likely that CX would get two slots, EK would get another four, etc. I believe that those airlines which want to eat into BA's market share at LHR (such as EK), would be willing to pay more for extra slots compared to BA.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
Plus nothing is stopping BA from adjusting slots via frequencies. If they're flying two A319s an hour to MAN, why not fly one A321 and open a slot?

I believe that they would not do it because frequency is much more important on short-range flights than on long-range flights. If BA starts to take the slots that they are currently using on short-range flights and assign them to long-haul flights because they don't want to buy bigger long-haul airplanes, then BA would lose many premium passengers and maybe even connecting passengers from MAN.

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 26):
Perhaps, but the thing is, with the A380 and it's increased seperations, some of those slots could become useless for BA if e.g. they schedule 3 A380 departures in a timeframe that could see 4 747/777s.

That would be true if BAA would require one and a half slot for the A380. But even today, we all know that the 747 requires greater separation than a 737, but BAA does not require more slots for a 747 landing than for a 737 landing. If you've got a slot, it's your choice whether to use a 747 or a Cessna for that slot. I would find it truly amazing if any airport would require extra slots for an A380 and only an A380.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 27):
My point was Boeing working on that doesn't mean anything else has to suffer. Boeing is (and will be for the foreseeable) in a very strong cash position and can afford to work on a couple of things at once.

You forget the manpower. It's not only a question of money but also of available engineers.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 27):
I said in the next 5 years. That's 2011.. EIS of 2014. Hardly 2020. I expect better from you that that.

Boeing would never be able to get a 2014 EIS for a brand-new VLA if they commit to building it in 2011. Even the 747-8i, which is a derivative of an existing airplane, has five years from launch to EIS.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 28):
That's 300 over 5 years, which I believe would be way above Boeing's forecasts. Boeing sees the 747_380 at 990 planes through 2025. That's 49.5 a year. Given Airbus 75% of the market: 37.125 a year. 300/5 is nearly twice that number which would be enough for them to move IMHO.

It depends upon what you mean by "selling 300 over five years." Airlines can order airplanes several years before expected delivery. If the current schedule holds, then Airbus will have produced 129 A380s by year-end 2011. If they have only 171 remaining A380 orders on the book at that time, then I'm quite sure that Boeing will not build a new VLA, because 171 A380s is only four years' production. If the current schedule holds, then Airbus will only be able to produce around 760 A380s between now and 2025, and that is well below the Boeing forecast of 990 planes.

If you by "selling 300 A380s" mean "booking 300 orders in addition to the ones they have today," then the A380 will obviously reach well above 420 and break even, so then there's no point in this discussion at all.
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SJCRRPAX
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 2:54 am

Quoting NA (Reply 6):
Capacity, not frequency is the future of international megacity air traffic, BA being a schoolbook example for an airline were that is key to future success. Its almost anachronistic how much air traffic passes over London´s city still these days. I´m there quite often and its odd to see that especially the better districts of London (which are in the west and soutwest) are affected by this. Operating two 777s or the like instead of one A380 means twice as much noise (or actually more, as the A380, which I´ve seen flying twice, is the quietest airliner I´ve ever witnessed), a higher accident risk, less crews to pay for, higher fares...

This seems like a European point of view. I can see why Boeing and Airbus have different philosophys. I know this is a slight exageration, but in Europe it seems each country gets one airport, and the railroads take you everywhere else. UK has LHR, France has CDG, German has FRA, Netherlands has AMS, and Spain has MAD. Where I live in the San Francisco Bay ARea, I would think once SFO fills to capacity, than OAK and SJC get more traffic, followed by Sacramento, Stocton and Further out maybe Reno, and possible new airports at Travis Field and Moffitt. I have travelled to Hamburg Germany many times and normaly go through AMS, FRA or LHR. Seems like a direct flight from SFO to HAM might make more sense. I always wonder why people complain about a B777 taking up a slot at LHR, when mean while I have seen numerous A320's and last time even a Star Alliance RJ using LHR.
 
osiris30
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 3:05 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 34):
You forget the manpower. It's not only a question of money but also of available engineers.

Well yes, but I think if necessary they can be found.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 34):
Boeing would never be able to get a 2014 EIS for a brand-new VLA if they commit to building it in 2011. Even the 747-8i, which is a derivative of an existing airplane, has five years from launch to EIS.

Boeing has PUBLICALLY STATED (for the last time) that all future aircraft (post 748/787) they are trying to run on a 3 year development schedule.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 34):
If you by "selling 300 A380s" mean "booking 300 orders in addition to the ones they have today," then the A380 will obviously reach well above 420 and break even, so then there's no point in this discussion at all.

Breakeven isn't a success in my books... especially considering the other costs Airbus has endured thanks to the 380 programme. Look at how disorganized the 350 is.. they can't even fund it.. because no one with money have confidence in Airbus anymore!! That's certainly not the fault of the 320.

Airbus's 420 number is also based on (again from public statements) future frames selling at significantly better prices than current frames. The real number could end up being 500, 550, who knows.. and the longer it drags on the higher that number gets (as interest and costs pile up from idled lines, etc.)
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
Johnny
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 3:07 am

France has CDG plus ORY
UK has LHR,LGW,MAN,BHX
Germany has FRA and MUC
Spain has BCN and MAD
Italy has MXP plus FCO

For example:
I see no reason to fly more than 30 times a day between London and New York,which is normal today.

Take 15 A380-flights, that is more than enough in points of frequencies.

Johnny
 
Rj111
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 3:08 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 33):
As time goes on the odds of the 380 selling decline as other aircraft come to market that are more efficient. As more time passes the odds of additional work being done to update the 380 fade if sales aren't there. Very few planes sell better at their end of life than in the first 5-10 years of life.

Exactly. That's why it is feasible to sell 300 A380s in the next 5 years and still not get 1000 after 20, vindicating my point.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 33):
My arguements are predicated around the fact that A380 supporters are right and the market does in fact exist. That's where I'm playing devil's advocate. Seeing as I consider the market to not exist, I'm intentionally taking the counter position, saying what if it does exist.

Yes but the market isn't black or white. It entirely possible for Airbus to sell a reasonable amount, maybe even clipping break even, without Boeing entering the market.

Quiet why you bought the topic of the A380's impending doom into a thread that had little to do with also says a lot.

Anyway enough of this.
 
RedChili
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 3:09 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 33):
My arguements are predicated around the fact that A380 supporters are right and the market does in fact exist. That's where I'm playing devil's advocate. Seeing as I consider the market to not exist, I'm intentionally taking the counter position, saying what if it does exist.

Everybody agrees that the market exists, they only disagree about how big the market is. Boeing believes that the market is only around one thousand airplanes for the next 20 years, and that size is too small to launch a new VLA since Airbus also has their own new VLA.

Because of this, Boeing has chosen to put their money and manpower on the much bigger markets. Boeing is putting priority on the 200-350 seaters, and the 100-200 seaters. In the 2011-2020 timeframe, I believe that Boeing will have the following priorities:
1) Y1, for EIS around 2015.
2) Improving the 787.
3) A Y3 for the 350-450 seat market (thus getting some "lower-end VLA sales").
4) Improve the 777.
5) A true VLA.

I believe that number 4 and 5 are too far down the list to get any real attention. The only thing which would make Boeing think otherwise, would be if they adjust their market outlook of VLAs to significantly more than 1000 airplanes.
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RedChili
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 3:19 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 36):
Boeing has PUBLICALLY STATED (for the last time) that all future aircraft (post 748/787) they are trying to run on a 3 year development schedule.

But Boeing has said this because they are NOT PLANNING TO BUILD A NEW VLA! Boeing said this because they want to focus on building smaller airplanes, not VLAs. It's all a part of the same package of Boeing plans for the future.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 36):
Breakeven isn't a success in my books...

Not in my books either, but even Boeings predictions allow for Airbus to sell 500-700 A380s.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 36):
Airbus's 420 number is also based on (again from public statements) future frames selling at significantly better prices than current frames. The real number could end up being 500, 550, who knows..

Correct. Nobody knows today. One reason why is the USD/EUR exchange rate. If the dollar would strengthen, then the break-even point would even go down.
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osiris30
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 3:24 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 39):
Because of this, Boeing has chosen to put their money and manpower on the much bigger markets. Boeing is putting priority on the 200-350 seaters, and the 100-200 seaters. In the 2011-2020 timeframe, I believe that Boeing will have the following priorities:
1) Y1, for EIS around 2015.
2) Improving the 787.
3) A Y3 for the 350-450 seat market (thus getting some "lower-end VLA sales").
4) Improve the 777.
5) A true VLA.

I'm confused.. so you think that after Boeing EIS's the 787 they are going to have their engineers sit around and not produce a new design for 7 years?? Or am I mistaken in assumingly this list is ranked choronologically in addition to in terms of importance?

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 38):
Exactly. That's why it is feasible to sell 300 A380s in the next 5 years and still not get 1000 after 20, vindicating my point.

How is your point vindicated. My assumption is that the market for the 380 will be hurt by things like Boeing's answer to the market.

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 38):
Yes but the market isn't black or white. It entirely possible for Airbus to sell a reasonable amount, maybe even clipping break even, without Boeing entering the market.

Quiet why you bought the topic of the A380's impending doom into a thread that had little to do with also says a lot.

Want to see why??? OK, here, read this:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 4):
BA has no other choice.
...
This bird will be the flagship of the 21st century.

Or this:

Quoting Johnny (Reply 15):
I was not talking about specific airlines´flagship, but about THE flagship at all!!!

And that is the A388 without any doubt.

And all the other blindfaith drivel that 380 supporters post without stopping to think about it. I never seem to hear any reason why the 380 will be a great success other than it's size. If size is so important Boeing will answer. If it's not they won't, either way Airbus loses. The 380 is an enormous risk that so far is a good distance from paying off. Calling a plane that billions over budget and years late a 'flagship' is just plane daft.

The 'pro 380' crowd (note I'm differentiating from the pro-Airbus crowd) seem to think that the 380 will be a roaring success and that while it's succeeding wildly Boeing will just sit there. I think the 380 in isolation may be a mild success, but in the grand scheme of things a net loss (and therefore a failure) for Airbus.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
CrazyHorse
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 3:53 am

Quoting NA (Reply 6):
Capacity, not frequency is the future of international megacity air traffic, BA being a schoolbook example for an airline were that is key to future success. Its almost anachronistic how much air traffic passes over London´s city still these days. I´m there quite often and its odd to see that especially the better districts of London (which are in the west and soutwest) are affected by this. Operating two 777s or the like instead of one A380 means twice as much noise (or actually more, as the A380, which I´ve seen flying twice, is the quietest airliner I´ve ever witnessed), a higher accident risk, less crews to pay for, higher fares...

On the other side the great selling B787 is a point to point aircraft and many airlines will add more frequency to their routes and will be more flexible in selection of new routes.
I think an hub like LHR could fill an A380 on a few routes(SIN,HKG,BKK,BOM,DEL,JFK,LAX,NRT,IAD) and nothing more. But many travellers (mostly business travellers) wants frequency, because they wants to be flexible and fly to their destinations when they want´s, and not when an airlines flies with an A380.
I think hub to hub and point to point could work, but not every airline could go the same way.
 
RedChili
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 4:04 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 41):
I'm confused.. so you think that after Boeing EIS's the 787 they are going to have their engineers sit around and not produce a new design for 7 years?? Or am I mistaken in assumingly this list is ranked choronologically in addition to in terms of importance?

This list was not chronological. Also, you should remember that the 748i will EIS in 2010, so the engineers have plenty to do until then with the 787 and 748. The list was about priorities between 2011-2020.

The 100-200 seat market is the most important segment, so obviously many engineers will work on that one. In addition, Boeing has a lot of work with improving and extending the capabilities of the 787. During the aforementioned timeframe, it is possible that many Boeing engineers will be busy making the 787-10, 787-11, 787LR, 787F, etc. If Boeing could make a successful 787-12, it would even eliminate the need for a Y3. (Please, note the if in the previous sentence.)
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osiris30
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 4:18 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 43):
This list was not chronological.

K. That's why I asked. (I was genuinely confused  Smile )

Quoting RedChili (Reply 43):
Also, you should remember that the 748i will EIS in 2010, so the engineers have plenty to do until then with the 787 and 748.

I would expect the engineering load on the 748 would be relatively light in comparison to an all new clean sheet frame.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 43):
The 100-200 seat market is the most important segment, so obviously many engineers will work on that one. In addition, Boeing has a lot of work with improving and extending the capabilities of the 787. During the aforementioned timeframe, it is possible that many Boeing engineers will be busy making the 787-10, 787-11, 787LR, 787F, etc.

I doubt the 787 will see that many derivatives and I strongly doubt there will be a -11. Let alone the -12 (I know you said if  Smile ). I see alot of people saying Boeing would avoid Y3 if they could by stretching the 787 and I really disagree with that. Boeing's arguement (witness Randy's latest blog) is that that is too much of a product range to cover with one base frame (efficiently).

I think Boeing will further broaden their product lineup with a 5 wide y1 (in addition to a 737 replacement) as well as Y3.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
jimyvr
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 4:21 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 37):

France has CDG plus ORY
UK has LHR,LGW,MAN,BHX
Germany has FRA and MUC
Spain has BCN and MAD
Italy has MXP plus FCO

For example:
I see no reason to fly more than 30 times a day between London and New York,which is normal today.

Take 15 A380-flights, that is more than enough in points of frequencies.

What are you trying to say with those examples? If UK got LHR, LGW, MAN, BHX and all flying to New York, for example, what is the point of getting A380 if those in MAN, BHX area can take a convinent nonstop flight to NYC instead of pain-in-the-as* LHR transfer.


If A380 is used for expanding the capacity not consolidating it, that's fine. Then it'll be a success

But if they're used for consolidating frequencies, for instance, 11 daily BA LHR-JFK/EWR combines to 5, that leaves little choice and BA (or any airline) will lose passenger appeals for frequencies. Eventually in the long run the A380 will be a killer for the airline who did that.
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Shenzhen
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 4:21 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 2):
urely Airbus must realize that saying an airline will buy their aircraft is a bit arrogant and presumptious.

Remember all the Chinese Airlines that were going to order (HAD TO) the A380 in order to have it for the 2008 Games in Beijing?

Anyway, Airbus probably has no reason to doubt a business plan that would include the A380 at BA (even if it isn't BA's plan).

The A380 is the newest airplane on the block, and if I were to purchase a new plane in the VLA market segment, I would have to say that it would be the favorite.

Cheers
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 4:42 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 31):
Pick you argument and stick to it.

My argument is that it will cost Boeing at least ten billion dollars (eleven figures) and probably more to build a brand new true through-two-deck commercial airliner. And during that time, Airbus will be reaping billions of dollars from A388 and A350XWB sales.

I, personally, don't like those numbers just as I am sure Airbus aficionados don't currently like those numbers now when it's Airbus spending tens of billions and Boeing making tens of billions.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 31):
How does that response have anything to do with the fact you're discounting 40 years of experience while crediting Airbus with 20 they don't have.

Airbus launched the A3XX program around 1995. So today they have ten years of real, hands-on experience in designing, developing, and manufacturing a true two-through-deck commercial airliner. Sure, they've mucked it up something fierce, but the design and development is over and they're gaining insight and experience into producing it.

In the ten years you believe it will take Boeing to design, develop, and manufacture their own true two-through-deck commercial airliner, Airbus will be continuously improving their production process and the plane itself.

Now Boeing has four decades of designing, developing, and manufacturing a large four-engine commercial airliner. And they have about fifteen years designing, developing, and manufacturing a large two-engine commercial airliner. But the closest they have ever come to designing, developing, and manufacturing a true two-through-deck commercial airliner is the 747-600, which looked something like this:

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00007915.jpg
Image courtesy of Modified Airliner Photos and created by R. Patrese.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 31):
Maybe I'm not following. I'm saying EIS in 8 years. A decision in 5. Boeing has publicly stated their future dev cycle is 3 years from decision to EIS.

Yes, for twin-engined, single-deck airliners. Not for true two-through-deck commercial airliners. The only way I can see Boeing launching such a plane in three years is if they did this:

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00006683.jpg
Image courtesy of Modified Airliner Photos and created by Ben Moorhouse.

And, personally, I don't see that selling so well against the A388 or A389...

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 31):
That's a call that's completely up to Boeing. If they tell engine makers to build to spec X they will.

Boeing can only demand so much of the powerplant manufacturers unless they want to fit some or all of the R&D bill themselves.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23507
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 4:44 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 34):
Theoretically, maybe there isn't, and maybe they can get one or two slots. But a meaningful number of slots would obviously be extremely expensive.

So would a score or two of A388s...

Quoting RedChili (Reply 34):
I believe that they would not do it because frequency is much more important on short-range flights than on long-range flights. If BA starts to take the slots that they are currently using on short-range flights and assign them to long-haul flights because they don't want to buy bigger long-haul airplanes, then BA would lose many premium passengers and maybe even connecting passengers from MAN.

It depends on how many daily frequencies BA offers and what the demand curve looks like for them all. There could be some "combination synergies" and there may be not.

However, I must note that it is true that many long-haul flights have specific time-blocks in order to arrive at their destination at a particular time so even if slots could be opened, they may not be able to be opened at the time one needs them for long-haul services.

[Edited 2006-11-24 20:45:21]
 
Johnny
Posts: 812
Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2008 1:38 am

RE: Airbus Predicts BA Customer For A380

Sat Nov 25, 2006 4:53 am

@Jimyvr
"Sorry that i was not precise enough...It was a response to reply35 only...

You write:
"11 daily BA LHR-JFK/EWR combines to 5, that leaves little choice..."


Littele choice? We are talking about a longhaul-connection between two cities and not FRA-TXL...

And 5 flights from only one airline is a lot!!!

 

[Edited 2006-11-24 21:02:47]

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