jimyvr
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Sun Nov 26, 2006 5:10 pm

Unconfirmed rumour, posted on CARNOC (a Chinese aviation message board), China Southern swapped 5 A380 for 15 A350XWB, with additional compensation due to A380 delay.

The latest A380 delay affects the delivery date for China Southern, which is suppose to take 2 A380 before 2008 Beijing Olympics.
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787engineer
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Sun Nov 26, 2006 5:22 pm

Interesting rumor. If it proves to be true, it's another blow to the A380 program. I don't think Airbus will mind too much since they're keeping the customer. Better to have them get A350s than 787/777s right? Anyways I wonder how they'll officially phrase this if it becomes official before the A350XWB launch. After all, it's a little dicey promising to deliver plane, that you're still not 100% sure you're going to build.
 
manni
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Sun Nov 26, 2006 5:35 pm

Quoting 787engineer (Reply 1):
If it proves to be true

Indeed, China Southern must have been one of the only airlines who hasn't been targeted yet as a possible candidate to cancell the A380.

The rumour might dissapear just as quick as it came, as we have seen with SQ QF EK KE etc...

Quoting Jimyvr (Thread starter):
China Southern swapped 5 A380 for 15 A350XWB, with additional compensation due to A380 delay.

5 A380s would be around US$ 1.5 billion at list price, 15 A350s roughly US$ 3 billion. If this were to happen, it would definitely not be 'a swap with additional compensation'.
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PlanesNTrains
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Sun Nov 26, 2006 5:35 pm

If true, it would provide an interesting contrast to this thread:

http://www1.airliners.net/discussion...eneral_aviation/read.main/3112793/

No more cancellations OR more cancellations? We'll see. Either way, in the case of China Southern Airbus comes out with an order.

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Thorben
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Sun Nov 26, 2006 7:55 pm

Quoting Jimyvr (Thread starter):
The latest A380 delay affects the delivery date for China Southern, which is suppose to take 2 A380 before 2008 Beijing Olympics.

I can't imagine they'll get them in time. CZ was one of the later customers, no matter what their delivery slots are, only around 15 A380s will be flying for customers at Christmas '08, I can't see CZ having any of them.

However, why change them for A350s? Those they wouldn't get before 2015 or so, the A380s were probably not just bought for the Olympics, they are still important planes for CZ, why cancel them?

I believe this is just a rumor. However, I can see CZ being among those operating some of the 20 A350s that the Chinese have commited to recently. Other candidates are CA and MU.
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UALMMFlyer
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Sun Nov 26, 2006 9:25 pm

Although China's domestic commercial aviation is dominated by the Big Three (CZ, CA and MU), it is still a very fragmented market. When I was stationed there for a 8-year period, I was surprised to learn that the regional governements' role in starting local airlines operations. CAAC does run the airline purchase, but regional governments and sponsored enterprises have greater says in competition, etc.

I look at the China market fairly similar to the US fragmeneted market with several carriers carved out markets based on geography. The demand of A380 is debatable. As we see China orders single aisle planes b the hundredth, and the domestic fligt schedules are packed with multiple pont-to-point services instead of flying passengers from secondary cities to hubs to Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou, and connect them to other secondary cities.

Until Chinese airlines can compete wth foreign carriers on services and product offerings on international routes, I see more 777/787/A330/A350 types of demands from China carriers. These planes can serve flights between major hubs on a high frequency based schedule while A380 may be too big.
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baroque
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Sun Nov 26, 2006 10:11 pm

A bit odd, going for A350s is not going to sort any capacity needs for the Beijing Olympics since these latter usually do not get postponed, unless a WW is coming up soon!
 
dutchjet
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Sun Nov 26, 2006 11:11 pm

If this is true (and thats a very big if).....it will be a big PR problem for Airbus.....it will certainly put a dent in their current ""happy days are here again"" spin campaign claiming that no further airlines are cancelling the A380, and claiming that the A380 wiring and weight problems are completely resolved, and that the airplane is far more effecient than the 748.

Airbus does need to quiet down until its certain that everything is in order with the A380 and that all of the A380 customers are happy campers.....
 
Rj111
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Sun Nov 26, 2006 11:40 pm

Quoting Manni (Reply 2):
5 A380s would be around US$ 1.5 billion at list price, 15 A350s roughly US$ 3 billion. If this were to happen, it would definitely not be 'a swap with additional compensation'.

My thoughts entirely
 
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par13del
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Sun Nov 26, 2006 11:45 pm

Based on my reading of material on this site, it is impossible to swap the A380 for any other a/c as it is the only a/c in its class, hence the reason why no one has cancelled their purchase.

Definately a rumour started to start another A versus B rant.
 
dutchjet
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Sun Nov 26, 2006 11:50 pm

Quoting Par13del (Reply 9):
Based on my reading of material on this site, it is impossible to swap the A380 for any other a/c as it is the only a/c in its class, hence the reason why no one has cancelled their purchase.

Definately a rumour started to start another A versus B rant.

Huh? China Southern and Airbus have a contract - that contract can be amended, modified or cancelled if both parties agree. Nothing is impossible....if China Southern and Airbus agreed to modify the contract to cancel the A380 order in favor of a A350 order, its a done deal. Did this happen? Who knows?
 
airtran737
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:03 am

Quoting Par13del (Reply 9):
Based on my reading of material on this site, it is impossible to swap the A380 for any other a/c as it is the only a/c in its class, hence the reason why no one has cancelled their purchase.

It is very possible to swap one aircraft for another. Look at Delta, I believe they just swapped 737's for 2 777LR's. It can be done. And I don't believe that this thread is another A vs B rant. Had the poster said that they have cxld their order and are now getting 748's then you'd have a case, but they didn't so you dont have one.
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Rj111
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:12 am

Quoting AirTran737 (Reply 11):
I believe they just swapped 737's for 2 777LR's.

They swapped 2 Trent powered 772ERs for two GE powered (obviously) 772LR
 
airtran737
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:16 am

Quoting RJ111 (Reply 12):
They swapped 2 Trent powered 772ERs for two GE powered (obviously) 772LR

Well I stand corrected. Nonetheless it was a swap. Airbus is in business to make money. I'm sure they would rather have an aircraft swap than an aircraft cancellation.
Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
 
Johnny
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:23 am

I only could imagine that China decided to fly the A380s in Air China livery in 2008 and not in china southern´s.


But canceling the birds they ordered for the olympic games? Not very likely.


Johnny
 
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Stitch
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:27 am

Quoting Par13del (Reply 9):
Based on my reading of material on this site, it is impossible to swap the A380 for any other a/c as it is the only a/c in its class, hence the reason why no one has cancelled their purchase.

Nothing is stopping CZ from increasing frequencies, however. 15 A350XWBs of any type will carry in aggregate more people then 5 A388s. CZ might very well have wanted the A388 to stuff people into PEK from LAX and SFO (they don't fly to the UK, much less LHR) but since that's not going to happen, perhaps the need for the plane is no longer relevant?

If this happens, it's more then a blow to Airbus on the "no more cancellations" area.

It's a blow to Airbus' (and many a-netters) belief that China's sheer size means they must operate the A380. If China can get away with narrowbodies and 787-3s domestically and 777s/A350XWBs internationally, that's a huge market Airbus is pinning the A380's future success on going away...and, admittedly, probably a market Boeing hoped to score some serious 748I orders in, as well...
 
sstsomeday
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:39 am

Quoting Par13del (Reply 9):
Based on my reading of material on this site, it is impossible to swap the A380 for any other a/c as it is the only a/c in its class, hence the reason why no one has cancelled their purchase.

Actually, after ordering an new A/C type, an airline may find it wants to change it's business model, so it may want to take advantage of the 380 delay (airlines have "out" clauses if the manufacturer does not deliver on time) to cancel or amend it's order. FX just did it, cancelling the 380 in favor or the 777.

Or, an airline may amend an order to a completely different class of A/C because they want to concentrate on another segment of their market. Perhaps they notice that a segment in "International" has more potential for growth than "domestic", for example. Some American airlines have found that they are giving up market share to LLC's domestically, and are instead beefing up international routes. See below...

Quoting AirTran737 (Reply 11):
It is very possible to swap one aircraft for another. Look at Delta, I believe they just swapped 737's for 2 777LR's. It can be done.

 checkmark 
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PEK18R36L
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 1:21 am

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 5):
Although China's domestic commercial aviation is dominated by the Big Three (CZ, CA and MU), it is still a very fragmented market. When I was stationed there for a 8-year period, I was surprised to learn that the regional governements' role in starting local airlines operations. CAAC does run the airline purchase, but regional governments and sponsored enterprises have greater says in competition, etc.

This was very true for a long time, but the recent government-mandated consolidation of the airlines have made each of the three majors far more national than their regional roots suggest. Their independence will grow as they list overseas as well.

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 5):
The demand of A380 is debatable.

Well, that depends on what you mean. Even Boeing figures that China will need somewhere between 75-80 VLAs over the next two decades.

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 5):
the domestic fligt schedules are packed with multiple pont-to-point services instead of flying passengers from secondary cities to hubs to Beijing, Shanghai or Guangzhou, and connect them to other secondary cities.

Of all places in the world, I'd say India and China make the "point-to-point vs. hub-and-spoke" question somewhat moot. Point to point will grow, and hub and spoke will grow. As the market grows, impacted infrastructure (airways and airports) will strain under the weight of a huge population that discovers flying, and the need for VLAs on high density routes inside of China will become painfully evident.

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 5):
Until Chinese airlines can compete wth foreign carriers on services and product offerings on international routes, I see more 777/787/A330/A350 types of demands from China carriers. These planes can serve flights between major hubs on a high frequency based schedule while A380 may be too big.

I'd say except for high tourist seasons around the national holidays, big twins will increasingly dominate most international services from China via Chinese airlines - even after the local guys start playing by the rules set by SQ, CX, and NH.

Don't count the WhaleJet out, though. Just take a walk through PEK's domestic terminal these days, like I did this afternoon as I caught a plane to SHA. The A380s China future is routes between PEK, PVG, SHA, CAN, CDU, HKG, and international destinations like BKK and SIN, and it will serve those routes well - routes where the volumes already exceed wide-body twin capacities.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
It's a blow to Airbus' (and many a-netters) belief that China's sheer size means they must operate the A380. If China can get away with narrowbodies and 787-3s domestically

On 97% of routes, China can. But on those top 3% - 5% of its routes, demand is already outstripping seat supply and airspace, and there is a nice comfy niche for VLAs.
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atmx2000
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Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 2:28 am

Quoting PEK18R36L (Reply 17):
Don't count the WhaleJet out, though. Just take a walk through PEK's domestic terminal these days, like I did this afternoon as I caught a plane to SHA. The A380s China future is routes between PEK, PVG, SHA, CAN, CDU, HKG, and international destinations like BKK and SIN, and it will serve those routes well - routes where the volumes already exceed wide-body twin capacities.

In all likelihood large mainland cities will end up with multiple airports, like NYC, LA, and LON have.

And given the closeness of BKK and SIN to China and their importance as business centers, frequency will play an important role, particularly if there is competition between majors at each of the large mainland airports.
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PVG
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RE: RUMOUR: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 3:30 am

Quoting PEK18R36L (Reply 17):
Of all places in the world, I'd say India and China make the "point-to-point vs. hub-and-spoke" question somewhat moot. Point to point will grow, and hub and spoke will grow. As the market grows, impacted infrastructure (airways and airports) will strain under the weight of a huge population that discovers flying, and the need for VLAs on high density routes inside of China will become painfully evident.

Having 150 cities with a population of 1 million +, the point to point international option makes tremendous sense here IMHO.

I've flown to PEK a few times in recent weeks and noticed the China Eastern has started using their int'l configured A330-200's on the SHA-PEK route. The int'L sleeper seat F class was only 30-40% full, Y class packed.

My question is that with most people paying an average of say $80-90 one-way for a 1 1/2 to 1 3/4 hour flight, would it make ever make economic sense to use an A380 (even if you could fill it) on such a short flight?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 3:47 am

Quoting PVG (Reply 19):
My question is that with most people paying an average of say $80-90 one-way for a 1 1/2 to 1 3/4 hour flight, would it make ever make economic sense to use an A380 (even if you could fill it) on such a short flight?

Probably not, since such a low RASM would require an even lower CASM. And while the A388 held the CASM advantage when she was launched, newer generation smaller widebodies like the 787 and A350XWB families will beat that.

And since airlines can't usually cross-sell anything (though some are trying with selling food, beverages, pillows/blankets) with the seat, you can't "make up on volume" so offering 400 sub-profitable seats on an A388 will hurt you more then offering 200 sub-profitable seats on a 787 or A350XWB.
 
briguy1974
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 4:15 am

Hey next we will see praise for China Southern's support for the A-350 program and how it is dominating the 787 and 777. I have no doubt Airbus in another desperate move to keep a customer will make some kind of swap. Airbus can almost bank on the success of the A-330 as compensation for A-380 and A350 delays.
Just keep racking up those compensation orders Airbus, make sure to count them on your web site so you can beat Boeing again.
Maybe someone should remind China Southern that the A-350 is not available yet. They should move the orders over to the A-330.
 
tootallsd
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 4:21 am

Quoting Johnny (Reply 14):
But canceling the birds they ordered for the olympic games? Not very likely.

If they deliver after 8/8/08 (a date chosen for its good luck) then it is a real possibility.
 
jimyvr
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 4:47 am

Quoting Manni (Reply 2):
5 A380s would be around US$ 1.5 billion at list price, 15 A350s roughly US$ 3 billion. If this were to happen, it would definitely not be 'a swap with additional compensation'.

Who knows what the contract between Airbus and CZ shows.

Keep in mind, that the reason behind China Southern getting the A380 is mostly for pride purposes. 1) Beijing Olympics 2) China Southern building Beijing hub to increase competition with Air China. Beijing Olympics plays the big factor so it can show that China has entered a new era in terms of transportation. (In Fact, everything enters into a new era when 2008 Olympic games begin)

Quoting Par13del (Reply 9):
it is impossible to swap the A380 for any other a/c as it is the only a/c in its class, hence the reason why no one has cancelled their purchase.

So you can not swap 380 for 350 but you can swap 340 for 380?

Quoting Johnny (Reply 14):
I only could imagine that China decided to fly the A380s in Air China livery in 2008 and not in china southern´s.

But canceling the birds they ordered for the olympic games? Not very likely.

Air China was considering about leasing a pair but that went quiet for a long time now. Also, keep in mind, A380 is playing a significant role (as well as the 787) to Communist Chinese. Basically a "show and tell" session during Olympics that how strong and powerful Chinese is today.

Quoting Tootallsd (Reply 22):
If they deliver after 8/8/08 (a date chosen for its good luck) then it is a real possibility.

No, Olympic Games begins on 8/8/08. CZ needs the plane before that date.
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miamix707
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 4:48 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
It's a blow to Airbus' (and many a-netters) belief that China's sheer size means they must operate the A380

 checkmark 

Quoting PEK18R36L (Reply 17):
As the market grows, impacted infrastructure (airways and airports) will strain under the weight of a huge population that discovers flying,

The problem is not "discovering" but be able to afford air tavel. As it is right now what's China's biggest pax aircraft, 777? (that's the plane they send to the biggest intl cities). I think in due time there will be demand for some VLAs in China, but at the moment, even though the population is huge, not everyone can afford to fly, like in the US and Europe, for example.
 
Johnny
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 4:53 am

@ MIAMIx707

No, it is the B744...

Air China and Cathay Pacific both have it!



Johnny
 
Thorben
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 4:53 am

Quoting MIAMIx707 (Reply 24):
The problem is not "discovering" but be able to afford air tavel. As it is right now what's China's biggest pax aircraft, 777? (that's the plane they send to the biggest intl cities). I think in due time there will be demand for some VLAs in China, but at the moment, even though the population is huge, not everyone can afford to fly, like in the US and Europe, for example.

MU has A346s
CA has 744s
CX has 744s, A346, and 773s.

Many foreign carriers fly 744s to China.

There will be no problems with filling some A380s. In addition, many A380 orders come from the region, TG, MH, SQ. I think it is not a question of if, but rather when CX, MU, and CA will get some, too.
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miamix707
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 4:55 am

it might mean that they're seeing growth prospects slowing down so by swapping the A380s for A350s (a plane that's also delayed and not 100% certain as of yet) it gives them more flexibility a few years from now.

Perhaps they didn't want to get stuck with a plane they would not need (A380). A smart move, maybe if the A350 is cancelled or delayed China Southern has an excuse ask for some kind compensation and/or switch to a Boeing order.
 
miamix707
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 4:58 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 26):
MU has A346s
CA has 744s
CX has 744s, A346, and 773s.

Many foreign carriers fly 744s to China.

I was talking about China Southern.. I forgot to type "SOUTHERN" of course I know those airlines fly pax 744s.. and again all or mostly long haul, not inside China  Smile
 
supa7E7
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 5:25 am

The Chinese need all kinds of planes including (gasp) the A350XWB. They will need 100 of them. No big deal.

"Slowing growth prospects" would not affect China in any way, shape or form. Longhaul flying out of China still needs to more than double in the next dozen years. A zillion planes are needed (in numerous nations) to facilitate this.

China is still unsure what hardware they will need in 10 years. Do they want a ton of A380s? Not quite. China needs big cargo, big Y class, and plentiful (but not hyperluxurious) Business Class. Nobody has yet configured A380s like that.
"Who's to say spaceships aren't fine art?" - Phil Lesh
 
sstsomeday
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 8:35 am

Quoting PVG (Reply 19):
My question is that with most people paying an average of say $80-90 one-way for a 1 1/2 to 1 3/4 hour flight, would it make ever make economic sense to use an A380 (even if you could fill it) on such a short flight?

Is a reinforced 380 for short/medium range and high numbers of cycles being offered or considered (for intra-China traffic)?
I come in peace
 
tootallsd
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 12:42 pm

Quoting Tootallsd (Reply 22):

No, Olympic Games begins on 8/8/08. CZ needs the plane before that date.


My point exactly
 
jacobin777
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 1:58 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 26):

There will be no problems with filling some A380s. In addition, many A380 orders come from the region, TG, MH, SQ. I think it is not a question of if, but rather when CX, MU, and CA will get some, too.

MH might cancel (financial problems)..TG will decide by Febuary if they will cancel...SQ need them. CA just got some brand new 744's and will probably go with the 748...same with CX......
"Up the Irons!"
 
Ken777
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 3:21 pm

If China Southern purchased the 380 for delivery before the Olympics then I wouldn't be surprised if here was a clause in the contract reflecting this and providing for a cancellation with no penalty. The XXWB might be under a LoI or MoU in order too let Airbus save a little face for a while.
 
zvezda
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Mon Nov 27, 2006 5:52 pm

Quoting PVG (Reply 19):
would it make ever make economic sense to use an A380 (even if you could fill it) on such a short flight?

No. The turnaround time of the WhaleJet would mean relatively low utilization on short routes, which would keep revenue low and costs high.
 
Thorben
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 2:41 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 32):
MH might cancel (financial problems)..TG will decide by Febuary if they will cancel...SQ need them. CA just got some brand new 744's and will probably go with the 748...same with CX......

For cargo, yes, but it would be very strange to see these large airlines with their huge market without the A380 in the longer term.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
UALMMFlyer
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 3:11 am

Having a huge domestic market does not equate to the need for A380. I can see Japan and US are huge markets, but no A380. What is the rationale behind that?

IMHO, A380 is ill suited for domestic traffic within countries such as China, US and Russia. Multiple daily flights between points are the fundamental structure. International traffic may be different. Each of the Big Three Chinese carriers have probably only one international gateway hub: Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai. Once China's internal demand for international travel reaches a certain level, A380 may be a niche aircraft for flying exclusively on international routes out of those three main hubs.
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jacobin777
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 3:16 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 35):
For cargo, yes, but it would be very strange to see these large airlines with their huge market without the A380 in the longer term.

1)Most pax don't know the difference between an A320 from a DC-8... spin 

2)Neither CX nor BA have shown a gravitation towards the A380...BA is slightly neutral (but more 748 biased) and CX have stated that they would like to have the 748 in their fleet "if Boeing gave us a killer deal" (didnt read about that regarding the A380)..

3)BA has cut down one of their Kangaroo Route flights from a 747 to a 777......if they want "prestige", they could lose some money and stilly fly 2x/daily 747s..

To BA, the 747 was a detriment.....with using a smaller plane on one of their Kangaroo Flights.., they have better profit margins and don't need to fill their cattle class seats as much...
"Up the Irons!"
 
Thorben
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 3:45 am

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 36):
IMHO, A380 is ill suited for domestic traffic within countries such as China, US and Russia. Multiple daily flights between points are the fundamental structure. International traffic may be different. Each of the Big Three Chinese carriers have probably only one international gateway hub: Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai. Once China's internal demand for international travel reaches a certain level, A380 may be a niche aircraft for flying exclusively on international routes out of those three main hubs.

I agree, the A380 won't make too many domestic flights in China. However, on some routes like between HKG, PEK, and PVG, there will be so much demand that they could send 40 A320s a day. This would be bad for airport slots, therefore larger planes have a chance. Same thing with some routes inside India, where the trains need 48 hours+.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 37):
1)Most pax don't know the difference between an A320 from a DC-8... spin

I don't think so. And an A380 looks different from all other planes.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 37):
2)Neither CX nor BA have shown a gravitation towards the A380...BA is slightly neutral (but more 748 biased) and CX have stated that they would like to have the 748 in their fleet "if Boeing gave us a killer deal" (didnt read about that regarding the A380)..

I haven't heard any of these statements. However, the A380 would fit for both of them, maybe they just want to negotiate the price with Airbus.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 37):
3)BA has cut down one of their Kangaroo Route flights from a 747 to a 777......if they want "prestige", they could lose some money and stilly fly 2x/daily 747s..

And? They still have 57 744s in their fleet, I could imagine they fly to some destinations. The downgrading was probably due to profitability reasons, not to prestige. And the A380 is a very very profitable plane. (If filled, of course.)

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 37):
To BA, the 747 was a detriment.....with using a smaller plane on one of their Kangaroo Flights.., they have better profit margins and don't need to fill their cattle class seats as much...

Probably because EK and others were biting into their market share. However, there are still enough routes to use big planes on.
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jacobin777
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 4:57 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 38):

And? They still have 57 744s in their fleet, I could imagine they fly to some destinations. The downgrading was probably due to profitability reasons, not to prestige. And the A380 is a very very profitable plane. (If filled, of course.)

That's the problem.."filling the plane"....I've been on 747's with 45 pax on board.. spin ..Filling an A380 year round for some carriers on some routes won't be a problem..but can a particular carrier do it year round?

Quoting Thorben (Reply 38):
Probably because EK and others were biting into their market share. However, there are still enough routes to use big planes on.

..and who's to say BA doesn't see that on other routes? In fact, they see just as much competition on their North American routes..routes to HKG, NRT, and JNB....

I'm not saying BA doesn't have certain routes that can't use the A380, because they certainly do..but do they want to invest in a dozen or so? Maybe they will...we'll find out soon enough...

Quoting Thorben (Reply 38):
I haven't heard any of these statements. However, the A380 would fit for both of them, maybe they just want to negotiate the price with Airbus.

I'll find the quotes...

Quoting Thorben (Reply 38):

I don't think so. And an A380 looks different from all other planes.

It's a tube with wings....besides the iconic B747 and Concorde, the vast majority don't know what kind of plane it is..and most could care less if its an A380 or B773-ER...
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N328KF
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 5:16 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 39):
That's the problem.."filling the plane"....I've been on 747's with 45 pax on board.. spin ..Filling an A380 year round for some carriers on some routes won't be a problem..but can a particular carrier do it year round?

This is why I think that some VLA operators should start pooling their aircraft, particularly within an alliance. This would permit seasonal redeployment. I know that it's not a new concept, but I think there's a lot more room for it.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
zvezda
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:01 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 38):
the A380 is a very very profitable plane. (If filled, of course.)

Depends on the yields. Filling a WhaleJet with discounted fares doesn't make it profitable.

Back on topic, the rumor is plausible except that there is no A350 to order at the moment. Hopefully that will change soon.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:19 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 40):
This is why I think that some VLA operators should start pooling their aircraft, particularly within an alliance. This would permit seasonal redeployment. I know that it's not a new concept, but I think there's a lot more room for it.

That concept hasn't flown with carriers though..(no pun on words)
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Stitch
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 8:38 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 40):
This is why I think that some VLA operators should start pooling their aircraft, particularly within an alliance. This would permit seasonal redeployment.

Well you can codeshare. So UA may never serve LAX-FRA with their own metal, but they could codeshare more aggressively with LH to send passengers to that route and help justify an A380 on the route where normally LH's own traffic might warrant a 744 or A346.
 
PVG
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 10:03 am

Quoting MIAMIx707 (Reply 24):
The problem is not "discovering" but be able to afford air tavel. As it is right now what's China's biggest pax aircraft, 777? (that's the plane they send to the biggest intl cities). I think in due time there will be demand for some VLAs in China, but at the moment, even though the population is huge, not everyone can afford to fly, like in the US and Europe, for example.

Air China has 747's. There are many people here today who can afford to fly. There is already a middle-class of 100 million people who own homes/cars and have extra cash to spend on travel. That MC number is going to double or triple over the next 10-20 years, so there will essentially be a MC population that is equivalent of the entire US population. You make it sound like everyone in the US and Europe is a zillionaire. In fact, for many Americans, if it weren't for their credit cards, they couldn't afford a new pair of shoes, let alone a vacation. The buy now pay later mentality is what keeps the market going there. If Americans had to pay the total cost of the services they get in cash, 90% of you would be broke or salaries would need to be alot higher.
 
Thorben
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 7:06 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 39):
That's the problem.."filling the plane"....I've been on 747's with 45 pax on board.. spin

That's some space for everyone, mh?  stretch 

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 39):
Filling an A380 year round for some carriers on some routes won't be a problem..but can a particular carrier do it year round?

It depends. If you can fill it 100% half of the year, and 80% for the other half, than you might end up with more money than when you only carry 80% all of the year.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 39):
..and who's to say BA doesn't see that on other routes? In fact, they see just as much competition on their North American routes..routes to HKG, NRT, and JNB....

Yes, but the change on these routes is not so big, because there are not three new competitors with endless money and new widebodies on it.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 39):
I'm not saying BA doesn't have certain routes that can't use the A380, because they certainly do..but do they want to invest in a dozen or so? Maybe they will...we'll find out soon enough...

They have 57 744s, they'll have some routes where they send three of them daily, and where they all have to fly within a limited time of the day. I guess they could use the A380 there. But as you say, we'll find out soon enough. I think we have to wait until the first A380s are in service and have proven themselves, also Airbus needs to prove that they can deliver them.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 39):
It's a tube with wings....besides the iconic B747 and Concorde, the vast majority don't know what kind of plane it is..and most could care less if its an A380 or B773-ER...

Come on, the A380 is as iconic as the 747. You can't escape these two decks and the massive size. Besides, it is constantly in the media and its users will advertise it largely (when they finally have them).

However, the 773ER is a really boring tube with wings, only two engines, no real characteristics, at least it has these raked wingtips, the 773A is even more boring. It may be a great airplane, but it looks so boresome.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 41):
Depends on the yields. Filling a WhaleJet with discounted fares doesn't make it profitable.

Depends on the discount. But I expect the big one to have the lowest CASM of all aircraft, which means that you can have the lowest ticket prices, which would (at least in theory) result in higher demand.


Quoting Zvezda (Reply 41):
Back on topic, the rumor is plausible except that there is no A350 to order at the moment. Hopefully that will change soon.

The Chinese just recently signed something for 20 A350s. More important would be that Airbus gets itself to launch it.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
jacobin777
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 11:11 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 45):
Yes, but the change on these routes is not so big, because there are not three new competitors with endless money and new widebodies on it.

Actually, you are incorrect....both NZ and Oasis Airlines are sending 747's on the route.......

In fact, I've read some BA posts on another websited stating that they have flown on some semi-empty 747's....

Quoting Thorben (Reply 45):

That's some space for everyone, mh?  stretch 

45 pax on an A380 will be even better  stretch  stretch  stirthepot 

Quoting Thorben (Reply 45):

It depends. If you can fill it 100% half of the year, and 80% for the other half, than you might end up with more money than when you only carry 80% all of the year.

Big if there.. Wink

Quoting Thorben (Reply 45):
They have 57 744s, they'll have some routes where they send three of them daily, and where they all have to fly within a limited time of the day. I guess they could use the A380 there. But as you say, we'll find out soon enough. I think we have to wait until the first A380s are in service and have proven themselves, also Airbus needs to prove that they can deliver them.

Considering BA is coming out with an RFP soon, its going to be interesting to see if they want to choose the A380 also... scratchchin ....

Quoting Thorben (Reply 45):

Come on, the A380 is as iconic as the 747

Not the way Airbus was hoping... Wink

Seriously though, you can't take a plane, which has costed billions more than anticipated, getting cancellations, has huge delivery issues against a plane that has flown for 4 decades and has opened up travel to billions of people.......

It's not even close...

Besides the A380 is the firs "full" double decker and only a 35% increase in pax amount..

Not even close Thorben..you will have to try harder than that!
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Thorben
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Tue Nov 28, 2006 11:26 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 46):
Actually, you are incorrect....both NZ and Oasis Airlines are sending 747's on the route.......

What route? JNB-LHRduck 

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 46):

In fact, I've read some BA posts on another websited stating that they have flown on some semi-empty 747's....

Oh oh, I suppose they'll rather buy A330s than 747-8, then.  mischievous 

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 46):
45 pax on an A380 will be even better stretch stretch stirthepot

Yep, you would feel like in the American Plains there.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 46):
Considering BA is coming out with an RFP soon, its going to be interesting to see if they want to choose the A380 also... scratchchin ....

Time will tell, you just wait.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 46):

Airbus probably has all these delays only to increase the anticipation. However, after four decades the 747 has lost some of its iconic status, it has become so normal. bored  A new plane is needed, that feels really new. bouncy 

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 46):
Besides the A380 is the firs "full" double decker and only a 35% increase in pax amount..

35% more pax on 50% more cabin floor. I always thought you super-sized Americans would love that. scratchchin 

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 46):
Not even close Thorben..you will have to try harder than that!

Just relax, some day I'll have Leahy's job.  hyper 
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
jacobin777
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:23 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 47):
Oh oh, I suppose they'll rather buy A330s than 747-8, then. mischievous

I'm sure you meant 787's... Wink

Quoting Thorben (Reply 47):

Yep, you would feel like in the American Plains there.

Actually, it was on a KL flight.....

Quoting Thorben (Reply 47):

Time will tell, you just wait.

Not going anywhere.. Wink

Quoting Thorben (Reply 47):

Airbus probably has all these delays only to increase the anticipation. However, after four decades the 747 has lost some of its iconic status, it has become so normal. bored A new plane is needed, that feels really new. bouncy

If anything, it has gained its iconic status..especially given the jump in the amount of pax from the 707/DC-8..not to mention, it was designed basically with slide rules....

Quoting Thorben (Reply 47):

35% more pax on 50% more cabin floor. I always thought you super-sized Americans would love that. scratchchin

I'm actually quite thin... Wink

Quoting Thorben (Reply 47):
Just relax, some day I'll have Leahy's job. hyper

I think its better Airbus shuts down right now.... faint  white 
"Up the Irons!"
 
PEK18R36L
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RE: Rumor: China Southern Swap 5 A380 For 15 350

Wed Nov 29, 2006 2:23 am

Quoting MIAMIx707 (Reply 28):
I was talking about China Southern.. I forgot to type "SOUTHERN" of course I know those airlines fly pax 744s.. and again all or mostly long haul, not inside China

Man, I'd love to know how you define "long haul." When I'm flying on CZ between CAN and PEK or SHA I'm on a 777. When I fly CA (my hometown airline) to SHA, PVG, or CAN, it will either be a 333, 343, a 777, or a 747, most often the latter. And theseplanes are full.

Quoting UALMMFlyer (Reply 36):
Having a huge domestic market does not equate to the need for A380. I can see Japan and US are huge markets, but no A380. What is the rationale behind that?

The difference is a far higher population density, low ratio of commercial airports per flying population, a rapid rise in local incomes, and a lack of comfortable alternatives to short-range air travel. Also, Japan and the US are developed. China is still developing, suggesting that barring a systemic disruption like a virulent epidemic, trends are likely to continue.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 38):
I agree, the A380 won't make too many domestic flights in China. However, on some routes like between HKG, PEK, and PVG, there will be so much demand that they could send 40 A320s a day. This would be bad for airport slots, therefore larger planes have a chance. Same thing with some routes inside India, where the trains need 48 hours+.

 checkmark   checkmark   checkmark 

There is some capacity left in the system to raise frequencies on high-density routes, but by the time WhaleJets start arriving here, most of that will be gone.

The idea that China will build multiple airports for its urban areas is an appealing one, but it is not borne out by either the facts or practical reality in the foreseeable future in either Shanghai or Beijing.

Here in the capital they've floated the possibility of upgrading the military facilities at Xijiao, Shahe, and Langfang, but they would still have airway capacity issues, and the required investment would be enormous.

Remember, they pulled CNAC out of Xijiao a couple of years ago. Apart from the dismal facilities and poor access, airspace restrictions around Beijing that prohibit overflight of the city within the 4th Ring Road make it difficult to have two airports using opposing approach and departure patterns.

I'll tell you, flying back from SHA today and staring out the window I felt like I was on a freaking freeway there was so much traffic above and below us.

Quoting PVG" class=quote target=_blank>PVG (Reply 44):
Air China has 747's. There are many people here today who can afford to fly. There is already a middle-class of 100 million people who own homes/cars and have extra cash to spend on travel. That MC number is going to double or triple over the next 10-20 years, so there will essentially be a MC population that is equivalent of the entire US population.

 goldmedal 

Really. You're looking at the emergence of the single largest flying population on the planet in the next decade. If CA is already filling a widebody every 90 minutes between two major cities, you don't think they'll need bigger jets in 10 years?

C'mon - even Randy says China will need 75 new VLAs in the next 20 years...

David
In China, everything is possible - but nothing is easy.

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