scalebuilder
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When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 10:17 am

It strikes me, numerous times, about all of the 747's that are converted and configured to cargo versions from passenger versions. Is the 747 simply too expensive to operate in passenger version the way we know it today, or has it simply lost favor with the public?

May this be a sign that large aircraft is "out" of favor with airlines that used to be the traditional operator?

I am not aware of any airline that has any 747 on order (except for freighters).

What will ultimately become of the 747 passenger version the way we know it today?
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drerx7
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 10:27 am

Well--ultimately someone will probably still order the 748 for pax service--even if they didn't the 747 would probably still fly passengers for another 20 years--with the 748 my guess is 40 years.
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lazyshaun
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 10:39 am

The 747 (excluding the 748) has no passenger orders to be fullfulled, correct.

I personally believe that this generation will be retired fully from service in about 2011. Almost every major carrier with 747's either has 777/787/340/350/380 on order, excluding BA, and is in this process of converting thier 747's into freighters or selling them on, often as freighters Smile

SQ, ANA, JL,AF, Korean, QF, CX all are large 747pax operaters, who have a/c on order to replace them and are in the process of retireing/selling on thier 747's, or converting to Cargo.

Few carriers have 747 pax in small numbers, or if they do, will have little rpoblem replacing them, as they don't need to cash-out big time to replace 2 or 3 a/c. (Air Pacific and PR come to mind here)

This is just my opinion, I would be happy to hear other views Smile
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jacobin777
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 10:41 am

With potential 748I sales, the 747 series will be around for at least another couple of decades... Smile


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zvezda
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 10:44 am

It depends on whether or not any airline orders the B747-8I. The optimistic case would be that the last B747-8I is produced around 2020 and flies in passenger service until 2040. The pessimistic case is that no airline buys the B747-8I and the last B747-400 is converted to a freighter about 2015.
 
BrettFromCLT
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 10:48 am

Does anyone have a CASM comparison between, for example, 744ER and 773ER on a given route?
 
scalebuilder
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 10:53 am

The question that really comes to my mind is this:

Why are airlines converting their 747's to freighters?

Is the cargo market growing faster than the passenger market (I personally believe it is)? In that regard the 747 may simply be more profitable to operate within this segment. I can't confirm this with any reliable fact. Just speculation.

If the 747, with its large-scale capacity, is on it's way out, and I think it is, why does Airbus decide to launch the A-380?

It almost seems counter-intuitive.
Go the extra mile......and avoid the traffic!!!
 
Australia1
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 10:57 am

bit of a silly question when 747-800 aren't even produced yet.

There will probably be 747-800's around in 35 years time, by which time, if Boeing keeps getting orders, there might be a 747-900 or whatever.

A lot depends on how the 787 goes.

Pax are more & more less likely to want to go thru hubs & as 787 is a hub buster, it should succeed where A380 will only work between major hubs.

These days, who wants to fly to a hub to get an something like an A380 to fly to another hub, to then get another flight to where u actually want to go.

1 flight instead of 3, way to go in the future !!!
 
vv701
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:30 am

Quoting Lazyshaun (Reply 2):
The 747 (excluding the 748) has no passenger orders to be fullfulled, correct.

I personally believe that this generation will be retired fully from service in about 2011.

Correct me if I am wrong but I thought China Airlines had an outstanding order for three passenger and one freight 744 409s while KLM and Thai as well as China Airlines have all taken delivery of passenger aircraft since late 2003. So if these aircraft are to be 'retired fully from service in about 2011' they will have been just about the most unsuccessful purchases made by any of the world's airlines.

The last BA 744 was delivered to them on 16 April 1999. In their 2006 Annual Report BA stated that the expected life of each aircraft in its current fleet would be between 15 and 25 years. So unless BA were giving their investors misleading information, this aircraft is unlikely to be retired before 2014 at the earliest.

History shows that BA usually retires its short haul aircraft earlier than its long haul aircraft, presumably because they accumulate cycles more quickly than do their long haul fleet. Certainly their first 744, G-BNLA, is already well past its seventeenth birthday and BA have not yet placed an order to replace it. So they must plan to keep it in service for a minimum of another two or three years.

So I assess that the 747 436 is likely to be in service with BA for the rest of this decade and most if not all of the next.

And what will happen to their fleet after they no longer want it? Their 741 G-AWNP was delivered to them in September 1974. Today, more than thirty-two years later, it is registered 5N-OOO and I believe it is still in occasional use by Kabo Air for, for example, Hadj flights.
 
AirplaneFan
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:42 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 3):
With potential 748I sales, the 747 series will be around for at least another couple of decades...

I agree sir.   

For example AI, BA, BR, CA, CI, CX, JL, KL, NH, NW, NZ, UA, & OZ currently operate the 747-400 and can consider ordering the 747-800 as their best replacement for their 747-400's. These airlines haven't yet ordered the A380, but the A380 can also become part of their fleet replacement for their 747-400's. Who knows.

I know NH, JL, CX, BR, AI, and KL currently have the 777-300ER either on order or already operate it, but the 747-800 can fit in between on some routes. I just have a feeling that BA, JL, and NH are going to order the 747-800 sometime soon because these airlines are strong widebody Boeing customer. My feeling might just not be true at all, but who know what can really happen.

Rgds,

AirplaneFan

[Edited 2006-12-02 03:50:16]
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scalebuilder
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:47 am

Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
The last BA 744 was delivered to them on 16 April 1999. In their 2006 Annual Report BA stated that the expected life of each aircraft in its current fleet would be between 15 and 25 years.

I can certainly understand that the service period for the aforementioned aircraft can span across the 15 - 25 years that you quote. Nothing unreasonable about this assumption. But how are we to know that BA will operate these in passenger version? If there were takers intersted in these examples where the price would be right for freighter conversion, I bet BA would sell and replace these with 777s.

I see the inventory of 747 passenger versions dwindling rapidly. Either these aircraft are more profitable as freighters, or they have lost favor with the markets that they serve, the passengers, and the airlines operating them.
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cchan
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:54 am

There is always a small demand of old passenger 747s in the developing world. These birds will still be around with small carriers for a while, possibly another 20-30 years until they can't find parts for repairs.
 
na
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:00 pm

The latest passenger 747-400 like Qantas ERs I expect to be operated as such until 2020-2025, 747-8Is a lot later, around the same time the last passenger 777s will find their way to the deserts. 747-8Is and 777s will be built until about the same time when they will be replaced by a joint successor. I expect freighter versions of both be built longer than the respective passenger jets though.
 
beech19
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:03 pm

Quoting Scalebuilder (Thread starter):
I am not aware of any airline that has any 747 on order (except for freighters).



Quoting Lazyshaun (Reply 2):
The 747 (excluding the 748) has no passenger orders to be fullfulled, correct.



Quoting VV701 (Reply 8):
Correct me if I am wrong but I thought China Airlines had an outstanding order for three passenger and one freight 744 409s

Correction on its way...  Wink

Phillipine Airlines has an outstanding order for 4 x 747-400 Pax that was placed on September 4th, 1996. Rumor has it that they will be converting those orders to the potential 777 order.

China Airlines only has 1 x 744F that hasn't been delivered. All pax orders were filled as of April, 2005.
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LTU932
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:11 pm

Quoting Scalebuilder (Thread starter):
When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Not too soon I hope! I've yet to fly on one.  Sad
 
1stfl94
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:14 pm

I know that VS has delayed its A380 EIS until 2013 and extended the leases of its 747-400s, so I would expect them to be in service maybe until 2015 or so. AF I think will have all their aircraft as freighters by 2010 as they will have A380s and COI configured 773ERs by then.
 
vv701
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 12:16 pm

Quoting Scalebuilder (Reply 10):
But how are we to know that BA will operate these in passenger version?

We can deduce that BA will continue to operate some or all of their 744 fleet in passenger configuration for some time for several reasons.

They have the world's largest fleet of 744 aircraft. They were the world's most profitable passenger airline in 2005. Therefore it is clear that the 744 made a significant contribution to their profits. So why get rid of it?

BA do not currently operate any freighter aircraft themselves (althought Global Supply Systems operate a minimum of three on their behalf). Further they have not done so since they sold their last freighter 747 to CX in the early 1980s. So we can be sure that they will not start to operate any significant number of freighters (5+) in the near or medium term future. After all why would the world's most profitable (and therefore successful) passenger airline suddenly change its business plan?

We can also be sure that BA would not have told their shareholders and potential shareholders in their last annual report that they planned to keep all their current aircraft fleet until each aircraft was between 15 and 25 years if this was an untruth. If this should prove to be the case it would bring them into conflict with the FSA (Financial Services Authority) for providing investors with substantially misleading information.
 
KingAirMan
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 1:09 pm

why do we see Dc-9s from the early 70's late 60's that are still around, yet only anticipate the life of a 747 to be for 15-20 years from now ? DC-9's have been around almost 40. With Technology getting better i would think we would be able to even further prolong the life of our airframes..

kingairman
 
sonic67
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 1:51 pm

The B747 will be around for many years in passenger and freight configurations at least 25 years or so. With Total built of 1381 and 70% of them Active 962 I don't see that all being retired feasible. The 787I will be probably popular and keep the line going for several years to come.

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PanAm747
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:16 pm

Quote:
why do we see Dc-9s from the early 70's late 60's that are still around, yet only anticipate the life of a 747 to be for 15-20 years from now ? DC-9's have been around almost 40.

DC-9's are perfect for the missions they are serving for NW - short range, medium capacity, up-and-down all day, and easy to patch.

747's are quite large for many markets, and many airlines are aiming for smaller planes with more frequencies. I think some long haul airlines such as BA and QF will, as has been stated before, hold onto theirs for a very long time - don't forget that long range planes like that can last a very long time, with longer cruising extending the life of the plane.

I will wear black for a week and many never come out of mourning the day the last 747 flight occurs.  cry 
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TrijetsRMissed
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:17 pm

Quoting KingAirMan (Reply 17):
why do we see Dc-9s from the early 70's late 60's that are still around, yet only anticipate the life of a 747 to be for 15-20 years from now ? DC-9's have been around almost 40.

I wouldn't say its a general rule, but many airlines seem to switch widebodies quicker than narrowbodies, possibly because the economic disadvantages of older widebodies is greater but most certainly because the number of aircraft needed to replace is less.

For example, AA began replacing its MD-11s in 1998, a mere 5 years after it received its last delivery in favor of the 777. Meanwhile, AA still flies some MD-82s that are over 20 years old. The difference is AA have about 300 MD-80s while they never had more than 20 MD-11s so the MD-11s were easier to phase out. Just my 2 cents.
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TrijetsRMissed
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:33 pm

Quoting Lazyshaun (Reply 2):
I personally believe that this generation will be retired fully from service in about 2011. Almost every major carrier with 747's either has 777/787/340/350/380 on order

I highly doubt that. Although more and more airlines probably will continue to retire older 747s for the aircraft you mentioned, many others will not. As said China Airlines operates the newest 744 pax version and BA will probably operate them for a while, seeing as they have 57 in the fleet. NW also has some new 744s delivered as late as 2002. I can't see these going unless NW ceases operations because of bankruptcy or merges. AF also had passenger 744s delivered between 2002-2004. I would imagine they will be in service for quite some time as well.
There's nothing quite like a trijet.
 
Gemuser
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:41 pm

Quoting Scalebuilder (Thread starter):
What will ultimately become of the 747 passenger version the way we know it today?

QFs six B744ERs are only 3-4 years old and are the ultimate development of the 747 currently in service. I would expect to see them in pax service to 2020, worst case, maybe 2025.

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FlyDeltaJets87
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:41 pm

Simple answer: Long before the Northwest DC-9's.
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KingAirMan
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:56 pm

why dont we see BA ordering the 748? Considering they are such a loyal 747 customer. .

Quoting FlyDeltaJets87 (Reply 23):
Simple answer: Long before the Northwest DC-9's.

hahahaaa  laughing 

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Ken777
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 2:57 pm

I believe that we will eventually see 748i sales as airlines replace their 744s. I simply don't believe that the 380s and 777s will replace all of the 744 flying today. For some routes the 380 will be too large and for some the 777 will be too small. For me it is the same as airlines that put a 777 or a 767/330 on a route because it best matches the demands on the route. In the same vein, the 748i will be a better fit than a 777 or 380 - especially as fuel prices increase over time.

If you look at QF's LAX-SYD flights, there are 3. The afternoon flight QF8 (my preference) generally hasn't had the same loads as the two midnight flights (QF12 & QF108) I've taken. I therefore don't see all three flights going to a 380 12 months a year. That leaves open the opportunity for a 748i on at least one of the flights - probably QF8.

Once the 380 enters service I believe that airlines will focus their attention from getting it into service to maximizing the profitability of their various routes that the 380 "might" be used on. There will be routes where the 380 is the perfect plane, but other routes where a 748i or 777-300ER is a better (more profitable) match.

I do understand the concept of congested hubs, but as long as I see smaller commuter flights going into LHR I won't believe that the 380 is a mandatory replacement for the 380.

My bet, therefore, is that the 748i will sell well as a replacement for the 744s until Y3 is launched. At that time the 748i will be shut down and the arguments on this board will be why fly the 380 when Y3 has such a lower CASM, is far quieter and does far less damage to the environment.  Smile
 
Gemuser
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:13 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 25):
If you look at QF's LAX-SYD flights, there are 3. The afternoon flight QF8 (my preference) generally hasn't had the same loads as the two midnight flights (QF12 & QF108) I've taken. I therefore don't see all three flights going to a 380 12 months a year. That leaves open the opportunity for a 748i on at least one of the flights - probably QF8.

My preference too!!!

That is one possiability, another is that seeing QF8 has not gone back to daily since 9/11 replace it with a B787 and make it daily.

I really don't see a role at QF for the B748 (or the B777 for that matter (ALWAYS excepting if its a SYD-LHR ULR aircraft)). The B744ERs will handle anything required between the 787 & A380 untill Y3 comes along.

Gemuser
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zvezda
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 3:52 pm

Quoting BrettFromCLT (Reply 5):
Does anyone have a CASM comparison between, for example, 744ER and 773ER on a given route?

No airline flies both, but the B747-400ER should have a nearly identical CASM to the B747-400. The B747-400 has a slightly lower CASM than the B777-300ER with similar seating densities.
 
alfa75
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sat Dec 02, 2006 11:21 pm

Quoting Drerx7 (Reply 1):
Well--ultimately someone will probably still order the 748 for pax service--even if they didn't the 747 would probably still fly passengers for another 20 years--with the 748 my guess is 40 years.

That is, of course, we still have any fuel left!  pessimist 
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access-air
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 1:03 am

The title of the thread makes the prosepctive reader think that the person posting the thread is chomping at the bit to see the 747 wiped off the planet....
Personally, I really dont see the 747 disappearing too soon....Believe me, If Airbus thinks there will be a market for their Behemoth A380....there will always be a market for the 747 in whatever version is being offered at the time...Just because the basic design is going on 40 years old, does not mean that its not practical......We have to get out of this "throw it away its a couple years old" mentality...Too much of this mentality is what has gotten many airlines in major trouble in the last decade or so.....throw away older viable and owned planes and buy brand new planes that cost them 3 times what they paid for the older planes....

SO I think we'll see the 747 around for a while....

Access-Air
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steeler83
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 1:14 am

Quoting KingAirMan (Reply 17):
why do we see Dc-9s from the early 70's late 60's that are still around, yet only anticipate the life of a 747 to be for 15-20 years from now ? DC-9's have been around almost 40. With Technology getting better i would think we would be able to even further prolong the life of our airframes..

True, although someone has pointed out that the DC9s and 747s serve different routes and markets. DC9s are mainly used on shorter routes while the 747 hops across the big pond and over the Pacific Ocean; those aren't the only long routes that 747s run either. The way I see it, there is greater wear and tear on the 747s than there is with the DC9.

I agree though, that with present technology we can prolong the life of the 747. I would like to see BA and NH order the 748I, given their large 747 fleet as of now. I always liked the 747 and it would be sweet to see it in the air for several years to come. Of course, it would be neat to see UA and/or NW take some of these birds, but I believe that UA has several 777s as well as some 787s on order (or are about to order the 787 anyway), and I believe NW is going with the 787 as well for DTW-NRT and other trans-Pacific routes.

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 20):
For example, AA began replacing its MD-11s in 1998, a mere 5 years after it received its last delivery in favor of the 777. Meanwhile, AA still flies some MD-82s that are over 20 years old. The difference is AA have about 300 MD-80s while they never had more than 20 MD-11s so the MD-11s were easier to phase out. Just my 2 cents.

Good point. When did the last MD11 fly for AA, back in 1999 or 2000 given that they had so few of them and were able to remove them so quickly in favor of X amount of T7s?
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ANNOYEDFA
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 1:53 am

Till the very last airbus is retired from the sky....
"TWA... One Mission, Yours."
 
scalebuilder
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 1:59 am

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 29):
The title of the thread makes the prosepctive reader think that the person posting the thread is chomping at the bit to see the 747 wiped off the planet....

The thread was not intended to see or to speculate whether the 747 will disappear alltogether. Only from passenger service.

Some large scale operators of the passenger version have been mentioned like BA, NW and QF. They will likely operate their 747's in that capacity for the long term.

I think an expanding cargo market experiencing growth will continue to make 747 freighter conversions attractive - especially also knowing that the 747 may be too large for passenger routes it has served historically.
Go the extra mile......and avoid the traffic!!!
 
na
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 2:06 am

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 20):
I wouldn't say its a general rule, but many airlines seem to switch widebodies quicker than narrowbodies, possibly because the economic disadvantages of older widebodies is greater but most certainly because the number of aircraft needed to replace is less.

In most cases its the opposite. LH, BA, Qantas, JAL, just four major examples. All these airlines operate their 747s for about 22-28 years, while they replace shorthaul aircraft often after 15 years or even less.
 
jacobin777
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 3:10 am

Quoting AirplaneFan (Reply 9):
For example AI, BA, BR, CA, CI, CX, JL, KL, NH, NW, NZ, UA, & OZ currently operate the 747-400 and can consider ordering the 747-800 as their best replacement for their 747-400's. These airlines haven't yet ordered the A380, but the A380 can also become part of their fleet replacement for their 747-400's. Who knows.

 checkmark ..We just dont' know..though I do expect to to see some majour carriers order the 748I....for a few carriers, the gap between the B773/A346 and A380 is too large.....

Regardless, its doing phenomenal in sales as a freighter..has picked up some V.I.P.s too....

Quoting AirplaneFan (Reply 9):
I know NH, JL, CX, BR, AI, and KL currently have the 777-300ER either on order or already operate it, but the 747-800 can fit in between on some routes. I just have a feeling that BA, JL, and NH are going to order the 747-800 sometime soon because these airlines are strong widebody Boeing customer. My feeling might just not be true at all, but who know what can really happen.

I think KL, BR, CX, BA, and possibly LH as the stronger contenders...not so sure though about JL and NH..of course, one never knows... scratchchin 
"Up the Irons!"
 
Jetspaul
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 3:34 am

I find it strange that Air Canada Retired its 747-475's and 747-433 combi's, the -475's being retired first. At the time it was said that the passenger demand was not there to support the size of such an aircraft. What has since changed as AC has ordered the 777-300ER , an airframe with very near capacity to that of the 747.
 
bmacleod
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 4:20 am

Quoting Jetspaul (Reply 35):
I find it strange that Air Canada Retired its 747-475's and 747-433 combi's, the -475's being retired first. At the time it was said that the passenger demand was not there to support the size of such an aircraft. What has since changed as AC has ordered the 777-300ER , an airframe with very near capacity to that of the 747.

The number of 747s - 7 in total were not enough for AC to continue maintenance service. The 777-300ER is also quite a bit smaller than the 747-400. 9-abreast for the 777 as opposed to 10-abreast for the 747-400....
The engine is the heart of an airplane, but the pilot is its soul.
 
lehpron
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 5:01 am

Scalebuilder, you reasking two different questions.

Quoting Scalebuilder (Thread starter):
When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Technically, whenever their use does not meet the needs of their customers. As of a date, there is no way to figure that out. As of 748I, the pax version has already broken even with the number of Fireghters ordered, Boeing doesn't have to ever seell pax version of the plane for 748 to be successful. All commercial aircraft seem to be designed against a 20-year warranty (my conclusion is based on their CMO) and product life expectancy goes beyond that. Just because a replacement exists doesn't mean an airline will replace an older product, as long as it still meets their needs. I'll bet you, 757's and 767's will still be in use when 787 enter's service.

Quoting Scalebuilder (Thread starter):
What will ultimately become of the 747 passenger version the way we know it today?

Whatever comes out of Yellowstone 3. Boeing has many products to their line, Project Yellowstone concluded 3 aircraft families were more efficient: Y1 (737 replacement), Y2 (787) and Y3 (747 & 777 replacement).

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 14):
Not too soon I hope! I've yet to fly on one.

Don't worry, all widebodies look the same from the inside. But the first [in a long] time is always a thrill.
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
TrijetsRMissed
Posts: 1978
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 7:01 am

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 29):
Too much of this mentality is what has gotten many airlines in major trouble in the last decade or so.....throw away older viable and owned planes and buy brand new planes that cost them 3 times what they paid for the older planes....

I am sure you're right, which airlines would you say have gotten themselves in the most trouble doing this?

Quoting NA (Reply 33):
Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 20):
I wouldn't say its a general rule, but many airlines seem to switch widebodies quicker than narrowbodies, possibly because the economic disadvantages of older widebodies is greater but most certainly because the number of aircraft needed to replace is less.

In most cases its the opposite. LH, BA, Qantas, JAL, just four major examples. All these airlines operate their 747s for about 22-28 years, while they replace shorthaul aircraft often after 15 years or even less.

It really can go either way. AA, UA, NW, & DL all fly fleets with the majority of their narrowbodies being older than the widebody portion of the fleets. Furthermore, LH narrowbodies on average are older than the widebodies as well. Their 747s are only about 12 years old on avg. I don't think an airline like JAL can be valid in this discussion seeing as they only have 8 734s in the fleet, with the rest being a mix of widebodies.
There's nothing quite like a trijet.
 
jyatlantic
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 8:19 am

The A 340s and 350s are just too darn slow...
 
747400sp
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 8:22 am

QF 747 400ER still has another 20+ year of passengers service in them.  Smile
 
gbfra
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 8:59 am

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 38):
Don't worry, all widebodies look the same from the inside. But the first [in a long] time is always a thrill

I had the opportunity to visit the A380 mock-up at Toulouse a while ago and I can tell you that the difference to a B747 is absolutely astonishing. It's a different world, really.

Having said that I sincerely hope that the B747 will stay alive for a long time. She's still impressive, no doubt about that, and I've always enjoyed flying on one.
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
GlobalVillage
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 9:40 am

Quoting KingAirMan (Reply 17):
DC-9's have been around almost 40.

The DC-3 has been around for 60 years and is still in passenger service.
 
DC8FanJet
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 9:46 am

The 747 will be hauling passengers for many years to come, probably 20 more at least. There are too many markets where the combination of cargo capability and 4 engine range make the most sense. The 747-8 will eventually sell, perhaps with a bit of massaging on Boeings part to increase the capacity.
 
Blackbird1331
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 10:29 am

If the 748 passenger is replaced, it will be by a four-engined 787. The 797.
Cameras shoot pictures. Guns shoot people. They have the guns.
 
alfa75
Posts: 488
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 1:05 pm

Quoting GlobalVillage (Reply 42):
The DC-3 has been around for 60 years and is still in passenger service.

Where can I sign up for that.  bouncy   bouncy   bouncy 
The best things in life aren't things!
 
TrijetsRMissed
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 3:29 pm

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 41):
Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 38):
Don't worry, all widebodies look the same from the inside. But the first [in a long] time is always a thrill

I had the opportunity to visit the A380 mock-up at Toulouse a while ago and I can tell you that the difference to a B747 is absolutely astonishing. It's a different world, really.

I did not state that, that was someone else's response to my post. But if you're alluding to the point that widebodies do differ on the inside I would agree. There have been subtle differences on the ones I have flown, I would imagine the A380 would also differ greatly as you stated.
There's nothing quite like a trijet.
 
access-air
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 4:12 pm

Quoting TrijetsRMissed (Reply 38):
Quoting Access-Air (Reply 29):
Too much of this mentality is what has gotten many airlines in major trouble in the last decade or so.....throw away older viable and owned planes and buy brand new planes that cost them 3 times what they paid for the older planes....

I am sure you're right, which airlines would you say have gotten themselves in the most trouble doing this?

Well when I said above "buy new planes"...I actually meant "Lease new planes..."

Which airlines you ask??? How about United, And ATA?? How about Delta....???
To name a few....I think that if the airlines actually had to buuy these new planes they wouldnt have the money, but it seems like by leasing them, they are just for all practical purposes just renting them...and not even to own....
I think its just wasting money.....Thats just my opinion tho.....

Access-Air
Remember, Wherever you go, there you are!!!!
 
UA772IAD
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RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 4:22 pm

Word on the street is that UA will probably order the 748 (as well as the 787). This isn't coming from upper management, but what I would consider a reliable source.
 
TrijetsRMissed
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Joined: Sun Oct 29, 2006 12:15 pm

RE: When Will The 747 Be Out Of Passenger Service?

Sun Dec 03, 2006 4:44 pm

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 47):
Which airlines you ask??? How about United, And ATA?? How about Delta....???

So you think DL would be better off with the MD-11s and L1011s they owned as opposed to the newer 777s and 764s? Or better off with the 732/733s instead of the large order for 738s? Maybe the 727s still??? There are no other aircraft they have recently retired.

Same thing with ATA, better off with 727s and L1011s vs 738s and 753s???
I guess it depends how many of these are just leases for both of these airlines.

The only aircraft to leave UAs fleet recently were the 762s and older 737s and many of those had to go. They have not added any aircraft since 2002 either. So how about United?? Not so sure.
There's nothing quite like a trijet.

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