AA787823
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Could 787 Beat A380 Into Revenue Service?

Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:04 am

With all the A380 delays it is beginning to look like that if the A380 encounters any more delivery delays, that the 787 could beat it into revenue service. The first A380 wont be delivered until fall 2007, assuming no more delays. The 787 should fly next year and deliveries in 2008. So based on that should the A380 get delayed even more, it is possible the 787 could beat it into service.
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LHStarAlliance
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RE: Could 787 Beat A380 Into Revenue Service?

Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:08 am

Possible is all , but first it´s not sure that the 787 will be punctual ,and second I doubt the 380 will be delayed more as airbus has solved wiring problems
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N328KF
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RE: Could 787 Beat A380 Into Revenue Service?

Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:09 am

I'm not sure about that, but I believe that given Boeing's intention to stack airframes prior to EIS, that it will only be one or two months subsequent that you'll have more 787s in service than A380s.
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NYC777
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RE: Could 787 Beat A380 Into Revenue Service?

Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:25 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 2):
I'm not sure about that, but I believe that given Boeing's intention to stack airframes prior to EIS, that it will only be one or two months subsequent that you'll have more 787s in service than A380s.

By the end of '08, assuming that Boeing holds to schedule, you will have more 787s flying in revenue service than A380s. If there is another A380 delay then all bets are off. It may be hard for the A380 to beat the 787 into revenue service.
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baron95
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RE: Could 787 Beat A380 Into Revenue Service?

Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:34 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 3):
y the end of '08, assuming that Boeing holds to schedule, you will have more 787s flying in revenue service than A380s. If there is another A380 delay then all bets are off. It may be hard for the A380 to beat the 787 into revenue service.

Actually, if Airbus and Boeing both stick to their current schedules, we won't have to wait that long. By summer (northern hemisphere) 2008 there will be more 787s in service than A380s. Maybe even twice as many.

The other thing to consider is the SQ is supposed to get 1 (ONE) A380 only in late 07 and the next one only in 08. Will SQ start revenue service with only 1 A380? I don't think so. So as things stand now, revenue service for A380 is 1Q/08 and for the 787 late 2Q/08. That is as close to neck and neck as it gets.

I think the OP posted a fair and interesting question.

Bets anyone?
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Vref5
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RE: Could 787 Beat A380 Into Revenue Service?

Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:56 am

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 4):
Will SQ start revenue service with only 1 A380?

SQ could still put that initial A380 into revenue service to iron out the kinks and subsequently ramp up for subsequent deliveries without all the initial growing pains and learning curve?
 
coa747
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RE: Could 787 Beat A380 Into Revenue Service?

Tue Dec 05, 2006 3:30 am

People seem to assume the 787 will run into similar issues as the A380. I am not convinced. If you read what Boeing is saying about the 787. They clearly state they are giving themselves a long time to piece together the first couple 787's so that they can work all the issues out of the production system. Basically he is saying they are building into the production schedule more time than is necessary in anticipation of problems. The A380 managers didn't do this. Also Boeing isn't the manufacturer who has the tardy track record right now. A one or two month delay if it happened would be a small drop in the bucket when compared to the two plus years the A380 program has endured.
 
baron95
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RE: Could 787 Beat A380 Into Revenue Service?

Tue Dec 05, 2006 4:08 am

Quoting Vref5 (Reply 5):
SQ could still put that initial A380 into revenue service to iron out the kinks and subsequently ramp up for subsequent deliveries without all the initial growing pains and learning curve?

Good point. But I thought SQ was planning a big splash marketing launch of the A380 with new interiors, service, etc. I'm not sure they'd want to dilute that. I thought they needed 4 planes to launch the service. But I may be wrong. Since the 77W launched the new interior anyway, maybe they'll just want to put the airplane on a route to make money right away.

My point was that only about 6 A380s would be delivered by the first half of 2008 to 3 airlines (IIRC). That makes it hard to place one and twos into service. The 787, on the other hand, will very quickly start delivering that many every month. And with Boeing stacking the production prior to certification, they can deliver a couple of dozen on short order. That makes it much more likely that they will be placed into service immediately upon certification.

I hope this makes sence.

We'll see.
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solnabo
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RE: Could 787 Beat A380 Into Revenue Service?

Tue Dec 05, 2006 4:20 am

Let us see in 1 year from now if 787 will EIS on time or Boeing say it will be delayed...

Interesting times ahead

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DfwRevolution
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RE: Could 787 Beat A380 Into Revenue Service?

Tue Dec 05, 2006 5:01 am

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 8):
Let us see in 1 year from now if 787 will EIS on time or Boeing say it will be delayed...

Boeing has made it past several critical phases without a significant delay, and the prototype is set to roll-out in less than 10 months. The program sure has come a long way since I first saw a 2"x2" sketch of the "7E7" in the back pages of the Boeing 2002 Shareholder Statement!

IMO, the most significant and challenging phases are yet to come, but Boeing has done an absolutely marvelous job of managing the 787 program to date.

Quoting AA787823 (Thread starter):
With all the A380 delays it is beginning to look like that if the A380 encounters any more delivery delays, that the 787 could beat it into revenue service.

Two months ago, I might have agreed, but it now appears that Airbus at least has a grasp of the specific issues causing production delay. They clearly haven't solved them, but it does look like Airbus has the situation back under control.

If more delays were plausable, I would have expect a major cancellation by now. Several customers have launched independent audits of the A380 delays, and they would appear confident that no more serious delays are likely.

Perhaps another 3-6 week delay could happen, but I can't imagine another 3-6 month delay without major A380 cancellations.

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