Dougloid
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J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 10:08 am

Mister Gallois seems to think something fishy is going on in currency policy....



http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...LLAR-UPDATE-1.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 10:11 am

Yes, it's all a giant economic conspiracy to cripple Airbus and prop up Boeing!!!111!!
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 10:18 am

Quoting MDorBust (Reply 1):
Yes, it's all a giant economic conspiracy to cripple Airbus and prop up Boeing!!!111!!

Kind of sounds like Humphrey Bogart as Captain Queeg in "The Caine Mutiny", doesn't it? or maybe Jimmy Cagney in "Mister Roberts"?



        

[Edited 2006-12-05 02:19:14]
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 10:19 am

This is ridiculous. Like Boeing is the only exporter in the US. And a sitting president wants a Strong dollar so people can buy lots of things, and go on vacation to Europe. Sounds like whining to me. If I cant make a successful product I will blame everyone else. The "Its not my fault" syndrome. He must have went to school here in the states.

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 10:34 am

Quoting Dougloid (Thread starter):
Mister Gallois seems to think something fishy is going on in currency policy....

Conspiracy? M. Gallois does not say there is something "fishy" going on.

The US dollar is presently "weak" and likely to remain so. That fact may make some investors very rich.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8LQ7VA80.htm

"Wall Street has a secret that nobody really wants to admit: Many are cheering the dollar's slide to near 20-month lows against other major currencies."

M. Gallois is simply stating the facts of what a weak dollar does to Airbus.

???

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 10:35 am

Nothing to back up his statement. I am now accusing of south pole nation of stealing my jeans from my laundry room.  Silly

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 10:41 am

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 5):
Nothing to back up his statement.

There's a great deal to back up his statement. Try a Google search:

http://www.google.co.nz/search?hl=en...AK+DOLLAR&btnG=Google+Search&meta=

???

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 10:51 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 6):
There's a great deal to back up his statement. Try a Google search:

??? What are you trying to say? I don't have time to read 4 million pages. If you have something to say, just say it.

The fact is that US government can only control fiscal policy, while the Fed controls the monetary policy. US dollar is a free floating currency, not like china's yuan. Weak dollar is here because of trade deficit, which cannot be compensated by foreign investment. I guess US government can strengthen dollars with higher tariff to deter imports, but I bet EU won't be too thrill about it.

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:00 am

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 7):
??? What are you trying to say? I don't have time to read 4 million pages. If you have something to say, just say it.

I said it. There is a great deal to back up his statement.

Many countries - through their reserve banks - adopt a strong or weak monetary policy, in the case of the US, the Fed. In Britain, it would be the Bank of England. This may be separate from political policy.

Raising or lowering interest rates to keep a currency, any currency, within a perceived desirable range is common practise.

???

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:09 am

Quoting Sprout5199 (Reply 3):
This is ridiculous. Like Boeing is the only exporter in the US. And a sitting president wants a Strong dollar so people can buy lots of things, and go on vacation to Europe.

While that is certainly a short term advantage of a strong currency, the long term consequence is loss of jobs in any sector of the economy exposed to foreign competition. And a sitting president doesn't want high unemployment rates. It's my view that the high dollar choked the US economy in 2000, causing the 2001 recession, and ensuring at least another year of weakness in 2002-2003 until the dollar started to move towards the proper valuation level.

And why would an American president want people to go on vacation in Europe? It would be far better for a politician if they stayed in country, spending money and boosting the US tourism industry.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 4):
Conspiracy? M. Gallois does not say there is something "fishy" going on.

The US dollar is presently "weak" and likely to remain so. That fact may make some investors very rich.

He is accusing the US of practicing a weak dollar policy. But all it is doing is allowing the currency to float. Neither the US government nor the Federal Reserve is buying or selling other currencies to manipulate the dollar value, and it is not locking the currency value to any other currency. The truth of the matter is that the Asian countries that keep their currencies low against the dollar are trying to prevent their currencies from rising and damaging the competitiveness of their manufacturing sectors.

Frankly, the problem is Airbus got used to an extremely overvalued dollar that made it more competitive. Now it doesn't have that prop so it can't win deals on price. What is probably a bigger danger for them is what a weaker dollar would do to the profits from the 1000s of A320s on order if a significant fraction of them are priced in dollars.
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:16 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 9):
Neither the US government nor the Federal Reserve is buying or selling other currencies to manipulate the dollar value, and it is not locking the currency value to any other currency.

They also do it by interest rates.

To remove it from the US, New Zealand presently has a "strong dollar" official (reserve bank) policy - paying high interest rates - to attact foreign investment, of which this country needs a great deal.

This is unfortunate for me because all of my income comes from the US. When the NZ dollar was "weak" (official policy/low interest rates), I got many more NZ dollars each month.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 9):
the problem is Airbus got used to an extremely overvalued dollar that made it more competitive.

Isn't that precisely what M. Gallois is saying?

???

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:18 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 8):
I said it. There is a great deal to back up his statement.

Many countries - through their reserve banks - adopt a strong or weak monetary policy, in the case of the US, the Fed. In Britain, it would be the Bank of England. This may be separate from political policy.

Raising or lowering interest rates to keep a currency, any currency, within a perceived desirable range is common practise.

???

3 Flaws:

1. US interest rate is at one of its highest point in the recent history, which means the US dollar should be stronger.
2. The Fed sets its policy regardless of political reasons. So, weak dollar has nothing to do with Airbus-Boeing competition. It is more of global US economy policy.
3. Gallois said that Airbus believes weak dollar is not cyclical. This means, regardless what the Fed sets, US dollars will be weak in the long run. The Fed can only control the short run.

from the fed website:

Quote:
The forex market is essentially governed by the law of supply and demand and is generally not regulated by any government or coalition of governments. This is true in the U.S., where participation in the forex market is not regulated. The prices set for each country's money is determined by the desire of those trading to acquire more of it or to hold less of it. Each individual acts on the belief that he or she will benefit from the transaction.

http://www.chicagofed.org/consumer_i...tion/strong_dollar_weak_dollar.cfm

You can see one of the reason of strong currency is high interest rate in home country, which is the case of current Fed policy. Just a while ago, US interest rate is in the order of 0.25%, while it is at around 5% (IIRC) right now.

Quote:
Factors Contributing to a Strong Currency:

*Higher interest rates in home country than abroad

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PP
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:27 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 10):
Isn't that precisely what M. Gallois is saying?

No, this is what they're saying

Quote:
European plane maker Airbus accused Washington on Monday of pursuing a weak dollar policy as a parliamentary transcript revealed the plane maker was preparing for the U.S. currency to remain below $1.30 for a long time.

and

The company is trying to rebuild its (currency) hedges on the basis of $1.30 to a euro because it doesn't consider this situation ... is cyclical."

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...LLAR-UPDATE-1.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

Which is nonsense, because a government cannot set long term currency policy.

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PP
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:29 am

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 11):
1. US interest rate is at one of its highest point in the recent history, which means the US dollar should be stronger.

"Should"? Yes. If interest rates were the only metric. But in a complex economy, it is never just one thing. The US deficit has a great deal to do with the state of the US dollar.

It also has to do with the relationship with other currencies , such as the yen.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8LQ7VA80.htm

If you really want a debate about Keynes or Friedman, I am happy to do so, but I don't think this is the place. I will - more happily and at the same time - defend M. Gallois against conspiracy theories, such as this thread.

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 11):
Factors Contributing to a Strong Currency:

*Higher interest rates in home country than abroad

Is that not what I just said about New Zealand?

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:35 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 9):
And why would an American president want people to go on vacation in Europe? It would be far better for a politician if they stayed in country, spending money and boosting the US tourism industry

If that was true, then a President wants a weak dollar so other people come here and spend their money.

I dated an Econ. major for a while. Was the scariest thing. She tried to explain some stuff but I just kept putting "real world" things into her discussion. the words "does not compute" kept coming into my head. Its all BS. basically it boils down to what you want to sell for and what I want to buy for. Doesn't matter if we exchange $ or piles of crap. Every thing else is one country trying to do better for their people and screwing everyone else. Like a Govt. should.

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:44 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 13):
"Should"? Yes. If interest rates were the only metric. But in a complex economy, it is never just one thing. The US deficit has a great deal to do with the state of the US dollar.

It also has to do with the relationship with other currencies , such as the yen.

That's what I have been trying to say. There's no weak dollar policy from Washington as Airbus accussed.

I know that US dollars depend on other economic parameters, and other currencies. I just want to say that the weak dollar has nothing to do with current Washington policy. It's all because the trade deficit US has endured for a while now.

Washington can actually set a strong dollar policy by limiting import. That policy will be against free trade spirit, and I am sure EU will cry foul if Washington adapts that policy.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 13):
Is that not what I just said about New Zealand?

This is what u said:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 8):
Many countries - through their reserve banks - adopt a strong or weak monetary policy, in the case of the US, the Fed. In Britain, it would be the Bank of England. This may be separate from political policy.

Raising or lowering interest rates to keep a currency, any currency, within a perceived desirable range is common practise.

When I was trying to say that the Fed is not adopting weak dollar policy to rebut the Airbus's statement that that Washington sets weak dollar policy.

Cheers,
PP
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:46 am

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 12):
No, this is what they're saying

Did M. Gallois use the word "accuse" - or did the reporter? Or again, does it matter, since many outside the US may believe it to be true? Why single out M. Gallois?

Clearly, many believe that the dollar is "weak" - and as many believe it will lead to higher interest rates - which would be Fed policy. Why else does Wall Street hang on the interest rate decisions of the Fed?

http://stocks.about.com/od/advancedtrading/a/weakdoll120604.htm

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 12):
Which is nonsense, because a government cannot set long term currency policy.

A Reserve Bank can and often does - see NZ above - set long term currency policy. Whether it has the blessing of the government in office is another matter.

Quoting Sprout5199 (Reply 14):
Every thing else is one country trying to do better for their people and screwing everyone else. Like a Govt. should.

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:52 am

Well the EU is proud of its Euro and how well it has done since being launched.
If they believe that the US Govt. is "playing around" with its currency to give Boeing some other subsidy and penalize Airbus at the same time, why not switch to the Euro which they control. The world no longer turns around the US as the EU has a same size or bigger economy, so unless its difficult to switch products already sold, can they not sell all new products in Euros, is this not already a long term strategy, for the Euro to be an alternative currency for world trade, why not start with the pinnacle of European consolidation.
 
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:55 am

Gallois had better put the blame where it belongs - on the EU in Brussels.

The basic mistake was to introduce a common currency and a uniform approach to economic management continent-wide. It was absurd even to imagine that the same currency value, interest rates, and public expenditure regime would at all times suit every country between the English Channel and the Balkans.

The really crucial 'wrong turning' was demanding that every country, regardless of its year-to-year economic situation, should at all times avoid 'deficit spending.' Balancing the books of a given country inevitably results in a 'strong' currency; but it leaves the government powerless to spend its way out of a situation of structural unemployment. That is the situation facing virtually all the countries that signed up to the Euro.
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 11:56 am

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 15):
Washington can actually set a strong dollar policy by limiting import.

So - they can set a "strong dollar" policy, but they can set a "weak dollar" policy?

Then again, you just said:

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 12):
because a government cannot set long term currency policy.

???

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 12:25 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 10):
They also do it by interest rates.

Only indirectly. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates based on inflation or pricing data that is an indication of inflation to try and slow the expansion of the money supply. But as a side effect it pulls foreign investors in, propping up the currency and keeping prices for imported goods low, which feeds back into the pricing data.

Quoting Par13del (Reply 17):
Well the EU is proud of its Euro and how well it has done since being launched.

Well when the Euro was launched at the beginning of 1999, the Euro went into a nose dive from $1.18 to something in the range of $0.83 at its low in 2000 or 2001. Publically, the EU ministers were distressed, but I'd bet they were secretly happy as Europe's chronic high unemployment started to decrease as the Euro weakened. As the Euro strengthened unemployment has gone up.

Quoting Par13del (Reply 17):
If they believe that the US Govt. is "playing around" with its currency to give Boeing some other subsidy and penalize Airbus at the same time, why not switch to the Euro which they control. The world no longer turns around the US as the EU has a same size or bigger economy, so unless its difficult to switch products already sold, can they not sell all new products in Euros, is this not already a long term strategy, for the Euro to be an alternative currency for world trade, why not start with the pinnacle of European consolidation.

The only thing this does is switch the currency risk from Airbus to the customer, who now has to worry that he will have to pay more in his home currency if the Euro appreciates. But all new contracts will still be disadvantaged by the stronger currency, as Boeing was disadvantaged by the strong dollar.

Quoting Sprout5199 (Reply 14):
If that was true, then a President wants a weak dollar so other people come here and spend their money.

Sure, if a strong dollar is an impediment. In reality, a politician wants a happy middle that doesn't choke the productive side of the economy and the consumptive side of the economy.

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 15):
Washington can actually set a strong dollar policy by limiting import

I would suggest lowering taxes on production (payroll taxes and perhaps corporate income taxes) and raising consumption taxes. This will put domestic producers in a better position, and slow down consumption of goods. Hopefully, the increased taxation of domesticly produced goods will be offset by the reduction of taxation for the production of those goods. Meanwhile, the imported goods will be taxed at a higher rate. The problem with this of course is that would make life difficult for all those retailers who built all those big box stores that sell imported goods, as well as their employees.
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 12:27 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 19):
So - they can set a "strong dollar" policy, but they can set a "weak dollar" policy?

Then again, you just said:

I chose the wrong term. Of course a government can set a policy, but not within the free trade spirit. China is setting weak yuan policy by artifically setting a foreign exchange rate to dollar, and buying all the available dollar in the domestic market.

The US government however does not set monetary policy, thus putting the blame on washington is ridiculous.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 16):
Did M. Gallois use the word "accuse" - or did the reporter? Or again, does it matter, since many outside the US may believe it to be true? Why single out M. Gallois?

Clearly, many believe that the dollar is "weak" - and as many believe it will lead to higher interest rates - which would be Fed policy. Why else does Wall Street hang on the interest rate decisions of the Fed?

Like I said before, weak dollar is because of economic condition, tied with export-import and investment. Fed policy is a respond to weak dollar, not the cause of the weak dollar.

I still fail to see how does Washington has anything to do with weak dollar.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 16):
Did M. Gallois use the word "accuse" - or did the reporter? Or again, does it matter, since many outside the US may believe it to be true? Why single out M. Gallois?

Here's another quote:

Quote:
The dollar problem for Airbus has "taken on a completely new dimension because of the United States' deliberate weak-dollar policy," Gallois told LCI television.

http://in.today.reuters.com/news/New...NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-278944-2.xml

Why does it matter what other people think about US and the state of dollars. Gallois should act as a CEO, not as a analysts or politician and face the reality that dollar is weak, and build strategy around it. Accusing US' deliberate weak-dollar policy is neither accomplishing anything nor productive to Airbus.

Cheers,
PP
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 12:33 pm

The U.S. has a trade defecit with almost every country in the world. Obviously, it needs to go even lower so Gallois is smart to try to live with it.
 
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 12:53 pm

"European plane maker Airbus accused Washington on Monday of pursuing a weak dollar policy as a parliamentary transcript revealed the plane maker was preparing for the U.S. currency to remain below $1.30 for a long time."

I trade currency (amongst other things) for a living..this comment has to be one of the most asinine comments I've read in years.... rotfl 

Currency market isn't going to be manipulated just so Boeing could potentially win a few more sales.

Its a global market place and the market dictates what currency values should be. Sure there can be some short-term manipulation, but that has never shown to be viable over a longer period of time (such as what is happening right now)..

Also, a lot of Airbus parts are manufactured in the United States, while many of Boeing parts are built in Europe as well as other parts of the world....

Just unbelievable...
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 12:54 pm

Quoting Dougloid (Thread starter):

It's all our fault...weaking dollar, global warming, increasing hurricanes and terrorism. The truth is revealed! Gosh I'm glad that's off my chest :p
 
baron95
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 1:16 pm

Gallois should just lobby the EU to drop the Euro and adopt the US Dollar as the EU's currency. Problem solved. Forever. No more whining and excuses.
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 1:23 pm

The USG is in no position to weaken or strengthen the dollar. It is a FLOATING CURRENCY.

Sure, they could raise interest rates. That would pie-face the economy and cause a recession. That is possible but they would rather not. Otherwise there is not much they can do about the Dollar. And why would they?

The weakened dollar has 2 good effects
1) US products, assets, services become more attractive to the world
2) US consumers buy less imports because they can afford less

This is what's supposed to happen. Americans should not be importing so much anyway, because they can't afford it. Instead perhaps their domestic industry should bulk up. Given a weaker dollar, that happens. Viola... the trade deficit is solved.

People always say a strong dollar is good, always and forever. But that's really, to use a strong word, ignorant. Gallois may be right that Bush is allowing the US dollar to fall. And he is also right Boeing is in a position to absolutely wipe the floor with Airbus in light of this. But it's no accident. This is the natural outcome of things. The dollar needs to weaken sometimes, and to prevent it is extremely perilous.

[Edited 2006-12-05 05:32:09]
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 1:41 pm

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 21):
The US government however does not set monetary policy, thus putting the blame on washington is ridiculous.

Many countries do. I see you have completely ignored the example of New Zealand.

Once agan, monetary policy is usually set by the reserve banks, who may, or may not, act independently of the political body.

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 21):
Why does it matter what other people think about US and the state of dollars.

It means a very great deal to a very great number of people, affecting their daily lives. If the US economy, the dollar, sneezes, many other currencies catch a cold.

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 21):
Gallois should act as a CEO

I would have thought it is an essential part of any CEO's function to be intimately familiar with - and to discuss - such matters. To state is not to condemn.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 23):
Currency market isn't going to be manipulated just so Boeing could potentially win a few more sales.

I don't think that is what he said. He was dealing with a reality as it affects his company, which happens to be in the same business as Boeing.

But any country that is exporting goods will be aided by a weak currency and hindered by a strong one.

If you think that is "assinine" there is no common ground between us.

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Ken777
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 1:42 pm

I believe that Gallois is just very frustrated with the impact the exchange rate has on the company. Just a bit of blowing off steam to vent the frustrations.

The question is where is the dollar going over the next few years. The war we are financing with debt is going to linger and will probably break a trillion dollars when long term costs for veterans 'care are included. That's going to be a continuing downward pressure on the dollar.

On the flip side, there is no guarantee that events in countries using the Euro won't have situations that pull the Euro down over the next 5 years.

A bit of a mess that both A & B have to live with.
 
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 1:52 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 27):
I don't think that is what he said. He was dealing with a reality as it affects his company, which happens to be in the same business as Boeing.

My comment was based on the sheer absurdity that the United States govt. would actively and willingly drop the value of their currency so Boeing could potentially win some extra orders.....The amount of potential damage which can be done doesn't even come close to what the potential benefits would be.

I also stated that since Boeing has European-built parts and Airbus has United States-built parts, the difference would be even smaller..

I purposely omitted Monsieur Gallois (and stated Airbus) as the article didn't mention him directly stating the comments about Washington, but rather Airbus...

Quoting Mariner (Reply 27):
If you think that is "assinine" there is no common ground between us.

That's regrettable..and I did spell the word correctly.."asinine"....


Cheers...
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:10 pm

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 21):
about US and the state of dollars. Gallois should act as a CEO, not as a analysts or politician and face the reality that dollar is weak, and build strategy around it. Accusing US' deliberate weak-dollar policy is neither accomplishing anything nor productive to Airbus.

The problem is that strategy is going to be incompatible with the goals of his political masters.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 18):
The really crucial 'wrong turning' was demanding that every country, regardless of its year-to-year economic situation, should at all times avoid 'deficit spending.' Balancing the books of a given country inevitably results in a 'strong' currency; but it leaves the government powerless to spend its way out of a situation of structural unemployment. That is the situation facing virtually all the countries that signed up to the Euro.

They aren't going to spend their way out of structural unemployment. Their problem is regulation and taxation that substantially reduces output and curtails domestic consumption, so that they are increasingly uncompetitive in foreign markets at current exchange rates and can't make it up through domestic consumption. Now what they could do in the past was devalue their way out of their current situation, but with currencies locked they can't do that. That's probably a reason why Sweden didn't join the Euro, as they benefited from currency devaluations in the past.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...9D0DE1DC173BF931A25753C1A964948260
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:20 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 29):
My comment was based on the sheer absurdity that the United States govt. would actively and willingly drop the value of their currency so Boeing could potentially win some extra orders

If "Airbus" said it, that seems amorphous. The thread is about what M. Gallois is reported to have said.

But, for the nonce, I have not read anything by anyone that even suggests that Boeing is the sole beneficiary. It would be, indeed, absurd.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 29):
That's regrettable..and I did spell the word correctly.."asinine"....

Very regrettable. As to the spelling, English is a complex thing:

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=assinine

There would be, I am sure, as many dictionaries that spell it as asinine.

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:36 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 31):
Very regrettable. As to the spelling, English is a complex thing:

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=assinine

There would be, I am sure, as many dictionaries that spell it as asinine.

I tend to go with a more "credible" source than urbandictionary.com....such as Oxford or Merriam-Webster

Quoting Mariner (Reply 31):
If "Airbus" said it, that seems amorphous. The thread is about what M. Gallois is reported to have said.

Then what is being discussed is incorrect, neither the thread heading nor the OP mention Monsieur Gallois blaming the United States Goverment (the OP states that Monsier Gallois believes "something is fishy")....and I pointed the article had stated that it was Aibus which blamed the United States Government...

Quoting Mariner (Reply 31):

But, for the nonce, I have not read anything by anyone that even suggests that Boeing is the sole beneficiary. It would be, indeed, absurd.

True, but this is a discussion about aviation, and one might believe by reading the article at face value that Airbus believes the United States Goverment is devaluing/manipulating the dollar so Boeing could win a few orders...to which I've stated that is utter nonsense....

Regards
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 2:49 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 32):
I tend to go with a more "credible" source than urbandictionary.com....such as Oxford or Merriam-Webster

I'm sorry you think the dictionaries we had when I was a school - which I agree, is a little while ago - are not credible.

But I am puzzled - it is not your spelling which was in question, at least by me. It was the usage of the word.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 32):
the thread heading nor the OP mention Monsieur Gallois blaming the United States Goverment (the OP states that Monsier Gallois believes "something is fishy")...

The linked article says "Airbus accuses" and then quotes M. Gallois. The connection is direct. As you say:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 32):
one might believe by reading the article at face value that Airbus believes the United States Goverment is devaluing/manipulating the dollar so Boeing could win a few orders

Which is the clear tenor of this thread - M. Gallois as the spokesperson for Airbus, believing that the US Government, etc.....

I completely agree that it is incorrect, that is why I have been defending him. But it wouldn't be the first incorrect thing to be taken as gospel on a.net.

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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 3:04 pm

I suspect that Gallois is just building his alibi for what are likely to be pretty 'moderate' results, in terms of profits, for the financial year 2006.
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magyar
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 3:39 pm

Guys, I may have read the wrong article but my understanding of what Mr. Gallois said was
"the weakness of the dollar is
here to stay (not cyclical) and the US Government is confortable with it (not doing anything to counteract) because it helps export, therefore, Airbus must prepare for its consequences". This a reasonable statement, nowhere he mentions any conspiracy specifically against Airbus.
 
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 6:01 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 4):
M. Gallois is simply stating the facts of what a weak dollar does to Airbus.

BTW, M. Beaudoin has made similar comments several times.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 23):
I trade currency (amongst other things) for a living..this comment has to be one of the most asinine comments I've read in years....



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 23):
Just unbelievable...

What comment are you referring to? In all the links no one in the EU or Airbus has said what you are claiming.
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Joni
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Tue Dec 05, 2006 8:18 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 23):
Currency market isn't going to be manipulated just so Boeing could potentially win a few more sales.

This is a strawman argument, since that wasn't what Gallois said.

Pursuing a weak currency is a legitimate option for policymakers, and historically many export-oriented countries have resorted to devaluing their currencies to give their export industries an edge over competitors from other countries.

In terms of a floating currency, devaluation isn't an option per se, but that doesn't mean that the government can't affect exchange rates - they can. For example running a fiscal deficit tends to weaken the currency in the long run, as do certain trade policies. In the US example, encouraging free trade with countries that have substantially lower wages is a "weak currency" policy, as it will encourage production to move to these countries after which the same products will be imported therefrom, distorting the current account balance and placing pressure on the currency.

In the balance, however, I think that US policymakers would prefer for the dollar to not collapse as the US benefits from the reserve status of the currency.
 
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 12:07 am

Folks, just to clarify the statement that led me to start this thread, here's the excerpt from Reuters. Mr. Gallois clearly refers to a deliberate weak dollar policy.



Adds background on hedging policy)

PARIS, Dec 4 (Reuters) - European plane maker Airbus accused Washington on Monday of pursuing a weak dollar policy as a parliamentary transcript revealed the plane maker was preparing for the U.S. currency to remain below $1.30 for a long time.

"Airbus is handicapped by 20 percent compared with Boeing (BA.N: Quote, Profile , Research) simply because of the drop in the dollar," Louis Gallois told French LCI television on Monday.

The problems posed by the dollar for Airbus have "taken on a completely new dimension because of the United States' deliberate weak-dollar policy."


 hissyfit   hissyfit   hissyfit   hissyfit 
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PolymerPlane
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 12:18 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 27):
Many countries do. I see you have completely ignored the example of New Zealand.

I know many countries do. But not US government. The Fed is an independent body and does not answer to any political establishment. Since we are talking about Gallois accusing of Washington of weak dollar policy, I fail to see where the connection between Washington and New Zealand.

Quoting Joni (Reply 37):
Pursuing a weak currency is a legitimate option for policymakers, and historically many export-oriented countries have resorted to devaluing their currencies to give their export industries an edge over competitors from other countries.

Regardless what other countries do, it is not Washington's policy, which is being discussed here.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 27):
It means a very great deal to a very great number of people, affecting their daily lives. If the US economy, the dollar, sneezes, many other currencies catch a cold.

You are taking my statement out of context. I said It shouldn't matter what other people think, but Gallois should know better. I did not say what other people think about USA do not matter. It's their own right to think whatever they want to think. But a CEO of a company should think like a CEO.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 27):
I would have thought it is an essential part of any CEO's function to be intimately familiar with - and to discuss - such matters. To state is not to condemn.

Familiar with it means building a strategy around it. He is not just stating. He is making a baseless accusation.

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 21):
The dollar problem for Airbus has "taken on a completely new dimension because of the United States' deliberate weak-dollar policy," Gallois told LCI television.

http://in.today.reuters.com/news/New...NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-278944-2.xml

Cheers,
PP
One day there will be 100% polymer plane
 
kiramakora
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 12:18 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 37):
For example running a fiscal deficit tends to weaken the currency in the long run, as do certain trade policies. In the US example, encouraging free trade with countries that have substantially lower wages is a "weak currency" policy, as it will encourage production to move to these countries after which the same products will be imported therefrom, distorting the current account balance and placing pressure on the currency.

Haha. I am sorry, you have no idea what you are taking about. Do not confuse causality with correlation my friend.

Quoting Joni (Reply 37):
I think that US policymakers would prefer for the dollar to not collapse as the US benefits from the reserve status of the currency.

This I agree.
 
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 12:34 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 37):
In terms of a floating currency, devaluation isn't an option per se, but that doesn't mean that the government can't affect exchange rates - they can. For example running a fiscal deficit tends to weaken the currency in the long run, as do certain trade policies. In the US example, encouraging free trade with countries that have substantially lower wages is a "weak currency" policy, as it will encourage production to move to these countries after which the same products will be imported therefrom, distorting the current account balance and placing pressure on the currency.

The cause of free trade and the cause of budget deficit is not weak dollar policy. One of the result might be weak dollar. But to say that Washington's policy is weak dollar is absurd.

Cheers,
PP
One day there will be 100% polymer plane
 
Dougloid
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 12:49 am

Quoting Kiramakora (Reply 40):
Haha. I am sorry, you have no idea what you are taking about. Do not confuse causality with correlation my friend.

Good work....there's a man who took Intro to Logic and actually stayed awake in class.

Everyone else:

Review the material before your next argument.

http://www.theskepticsguide.org/logicalfallacies.asp
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
jacobin777
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 1:08 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 33):
I'm sorry you think the dictionaries we had when I was a school - which I agree, is a little while ago - are not credible.

Didnt' know urbandictionary was a dictionary used........

Quoting Mariner (Reply 33):
The linked article says "Airbus accuses" and then quotes M. Gallois. The connection is direct. As you say:

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 32):
one might believe by reading the article at face value that Airbus believes the United States Goverment is devaluing/manipulating the dollar so Boeing could win a few orders

Which is the clear tenor of this thread - M. Gallois as the spokesperson for Airbus, believing that the US Government, etc.....

Sure the tenor was that of Monsieur Gallois, however I cited the article, which directly stated Airbus....and that is why I have to a certain extent not implicated Monsieur Gallois....

Quoting Mariner (Reply 33):
I completely agree that it is incorrect, that is why I have been defending him. But it wouldn't be the first incorrect thing to be taken as gospel on a.net.

Again, why I haven't mentioned him specifically...

Apropos, I agree with the latter part of your comment... Smile

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 36):

What comment are you referring to? In all the links no one in the EU or Airbus has said what you are claiming.

I was referring to the fact a prima facie it seems that Airbus is blaming the United States Government for devaluing/manipulating the dollar...

Quoting Joni (Reply 37):
This is a strawman argument, since that wasn't what Gallois said.

Pursuing a weak currency is a legitimate option for policymakers, and historically many export-oriented countries have resorted to devaluing their currencies to give their export industries an edge over competitors from other countries.

Again, I'm not even blaming Monsieur Gallois....Its an aviation article, it states "Airbus is blaming Washington"..

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 38):
European plane maker Airbus accused Washington on Monday of pursuing a weak dollar policy as a parliamentary transcript revealed the plane maker was preparing for the U.S. currency to remain below $1.30 for a long time.

 checkmark ...its logical that given that Airbus makes planes, they could be accusing Washington of helping Boeing...why else would Airbus make a comment..because its helping Whirlpool sell more dishwashers internationally?

Maybe I'm looking at the trees and not the forest, but that is the sense which I got....

Cheers...
"Up the Irons!"
 
airfrnt
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 1:42 am

This discussion is a little bonkers. Does the US government currently have a weak dollar policy (to the little degree they can?) Of course they do. Weak dollar policies are great for exporting goods. Clinton and the first two years of Bush perused a strong dollar policy which resulted in massive job losses in Detroit, Ohio and Seattle as their goods were effectively priced out of the market.

At the same time, there was huge hand wringing in Europe because the European governments deliberately set the Euro up to be valued at $1.18 a Euro, but it quickly fell below that. European politicians grumbled that somehow their currency wasn't being fairly valued. However, it gave Airbus a considerably advantage over Boeing.

As much as the EU wants to pretend that the Euro has reserve currency status, it's valuation still very much is a reaction to the dollar's current state. The Euro has vastly different purchasing power in Italy versus Germany for example. That means that the Euro will be stuck in a cycle with the dollar for a long time to come. Airbus knows this. That's why between 50-75% of their current costs are dollarized, and they are looking to increase that percentage.

Quoting Dougloid (Thread starter):
Mister Gallois seems to think something fishy is going on in currency policy....

Insert the typical French reaction to blame French problems with international trade on Americans, add a journalist trying to make a headline, and look at the total collapse of the more expensive product lines, and you have this story.

Quoting Sprout5199 (Reply 3):
This is ridiculous. Like Boeing is the only exporter in the US. And a sitting president wants a Strong dollar so people can buy lots of things, and go on vacation to Europe. Sounds like whining to me. If I cant make a successful product I will blame everyone else. The "Its not my fault" syndrome. He must have went to school here in the states.

I have to disagree with you here. Everyone understood that Paul O'Neil's sacking after the election was directly related to the undesirable effects of Clinton's strong dollar approach, which the Bush administration had continued after it came to power.

In reality, the Dollar is going to fall further, and people in Washington won't worry about anything but the perception problems with it. As the Yen gets a better valuation, American cars in particular will be much more competitive against Japanese imports. The European governments meanwhile will act to stabilize the Euro against the dollar to keep Airbus, and their own exporting businesses from a long term advantage. Then in 2008 some politican will run on the idea of a strong dollar, the Dollar will flip, boeing will be at a disadvantage.

There is nothing new under the sun. Even in European finances.
 
PanAmOldDC8
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 2:15 am

As a person that does not live in the US, I have seen over the years many times that the US dollar has flucuated against the many curencies of the World. I personally don't think that the US would set their dollar "cheap", remembering that they import huge amounts from other countries, especially Canada. A weak dollar would only hurt them. Don't understand why Aibus does not quote in their own currency, maybe they wanted the best oif both worlds, but now are caught in a vice
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 2:23 am

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 39):
I know many countries do. But not US government. The Fed is an independent body and does not answer to any political establishment.

As I have pointed out several times, in free countries reserve banks are almost always independent of the elected government.

M. Gallois said Washington, which is, I believe, where the Fed is based. The Fed persistently uses interest rates - which affect the dollar - to control the money supply.

Read the minutes of almost any Fed meeting where they will explain why they raise, or lower interest rates.

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 39):
I fail to see where the connection between Washington and New Zealand.

Um - there is no "connection". As I said:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 10):
To remove it from the US, New Zealand presently has a "strong dollar"

"To remove it form the US" as an "example" of how a country may/can manipulate its currency.

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 39):
But a CEO of a company should think like a CEO.

Precisely what he is doing. Or do you maintain that the state of the dollar is irrelevant to Airbus, which prices in dollars, but pays (mostly) in euros?

Quoting PolymerPlane (Reply 39):
He is making a baseless accusation.

To state a fact is not necessarily to accuse. To state that the weak dollar is hurting Airbus is not an "accusation".

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 43):
Sure the tenor was that of Monsieur Gallois,

But it was not the tenor of M. Gallois. It is the tenor of the this thread, which has taken a statement of fact by M. Gallois and turned it into an accusation by M. Gallois.

???

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planemaker
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 2:35 am

Some of you may wish to check out the latest Economist...



Currencies and economies
Nov 30th 2006

THE dollar's tumble this week was attended by predictable shrieks from the markets; but as it fell to a 20-month low of $1.32 against the euro, the only real surprise was that it had not slipped sooner. Indeed, there are good reasons to expect its slide to continue, dragging it below the record low of $1.36 against the euro that it hit in December 2004. …
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
kiramakora
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 2:35 am

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 44):
Insert the typical French reaction to blame French problems with international trade on Americans,

Do not feel special. The French blame everyone for their misery. Germans, developing countries, new EU members, etc. Americans need to stop feeling special hatred  Wink.
 
supa7E7
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RE: J'Accuse! Conspiracy To Tank Dollar Unmasked!

Wed Dec 06, 2006 2:36 am

Quoting PanAmOldDC8 (Reply 45):
A weak dollar would only hurt them.

I can see why you say that, but it is not the whole truth. You are right about Canada; however you should also remember USA's import levels are undesirably high. They need to fall eventually.

The US can export any products in any quantity the world wishes to pay for. One could say the US Dollar has been too strong (i.e., artificially propped up by the world's currency hoarders) for decades. The US was the world's industrial leader, but its factories have been closing. Now it is the services leader. But in terms of high value products, the US is good at producing nearly all of them. In fact the US is highly productive in almost every industry... bicycles... or whatever the world needs. Despite this, the dollar was just too strong for the US to compete. Plus, the US grew more advanced, going into product design, software, drug research, etc.

The US will not need to dig further into debt. Airbus may be shocked to learn that Boeing is exceptionally more productive than it is, once you take away Boeing's handicap of "strong currency" (which helped kill most American manufacturers). Currency moves are a benign thing. For every person they harm, they help another. Unless you are moving away from the equilibrium (as would happen if you manually force the dollar higher). Then pain results.
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