bringiton
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:24 am

Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:03 pm

 
KFLLCFII
Posts: 3174
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:08 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:08 pm

"And their biggest model, the -1000, which is to compete with the 777-300ER, won't be arriving until nine years from today. Mind you, we forecast a market of 1,450 airplane deliveries in this size category (200-400 seats) between now and 2015.

Enough said about timing."


 rotfl 
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:12 pm

Normal marketing spin; nothing really insightful this time. I'm pessimistic about the A350 because I think the composite fuselage panels are stupid and a manifestation of not-invented-here syndrome. However, I'm prepared to wait and see as the design details are firmed. Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777, but based on the information available today I don't expect it to beat the B787.  Sad
 
MCIGuy
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:15 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:21 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777, but based on the information available today I don't expect it to beat the B787.

"Tiiiiiiiiime, is on my side, yes it is..." Silly

I think Boeing need only move up Y3 development by a couple of years to potentially crush the A350. That is, if it turns out to be the ambitious, wide-ranging product it's expected to be.
Airliners.net Moderator Team
 
andessmf
Posts: 5689
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 8:53 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:26 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
the A350 will devastate the B777

Agreed, by the time Airbus has a competitor, the 777 will have sold plenty of units anyways.

And once the 787 and 748 are out of the way, Boeing only has two projects to deal with, the 737 and the improvements to the 777.

[Edited 2006-12-06 07:27:48]
 
Ken777
Posts: 9020
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:36 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777

I think that will be a major challenge for Airbus to pull off, especially if Boeing continues to improve the 777. If the 787 exceeds expectations then Airbus has another problem in devastating the 777 - Boeing can tell the airlines that Y3 is close and they should hold off ordering the larger 350s. Sort of like Airbus did with SQ when SQ was seriously considering the 7E7.

At least there is never a dull moment . . .
 
nwray
Posts: 60
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 7:42 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:40 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777

Devastate or be competitive with? Do you mean fuel efficiency wise?

Also, probably a dumb question, but will Airbus continue to produce A330s after the A350 introduction? Any reason for this?

Thanks.
 
bringiton
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:24 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:41 pm

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 4):
And once the 787 and 748 are out of the way

Exactly .. By 2010 ( 5 years from A350-1000 EIS) boeing would be done with the 787 and 747-8 programs and the cash flow will be quite good given the 787 and 747-8 deliveries in addition to greater 737 deliveries . Even if boeing decides to go for the 737RS first and spends tons of money between 2012-2015 they can still start and industrial program in 2013-2014 timeframe and have the aircraft EIS 2-3 years later then the A350-1000 which isnt all that bad if one really looks at it .

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 1):
which is to compete with the 777-300ER, won't be arriving until nine years from today. Mind you, we forecast a market of 1,450 airplane deliveries in this size category (200-400 seats) between now and 2015.

I think 1450 is being rather conservative , The 787 and 777 have received 591 orders in the last 2 years alone , if you add up the A330/340 and A350 no.s you can well see that the market really is taking in the 200-400 sized aircraft in large gulps and even if this trend dies down (which I dont seeing looking at the continuing 787 orders , Another close to 100 orders/year year for 777 and healthy sales for A330 family) or slows down we can still potentially see much greater then 1450 aircrafts being sold between now and 2015 and close to 30-40% of these aircrafts will most likely be the 777/340 family

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Normal marketing spin; nothing really insightful this time

Well he does raise a valid point about Airbus comparing their A350-8 to a smaller 787-8 when the 787-9 seems to be a more appropriate comparison . Other then that he really isnt a source from whom we can expect really "insightful" stuff on the A350-XWB !!
 
siromega
Posts: 564
Joined: Mon Sep 12, 2005 11:57 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:43 pm

I love seeeing that 787-10 model on Randy's chart. Just a bit above a 359. It wouldnt surprise me if they managed to beat Airbus to market with a 787-10 in 2012 and the 359 doesnt arrive until 2013.
 
bringiton
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:24 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:43 pm

Quoting Nwray (Reply 6):
Any reason for this?

Because there is demand and they can sell the A330 and make money , When the big airlines line up for the A350 the production slots will fly off the shelf leaving plenty of room for the A330 to sell which BTW is smaller then the A350-8 and competes better with the 787-8 interms of capacity.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:50 pm

Quoting Nwray (Reply 6):
Devastate or be competitive with? Do you mean fuel efficiency wise?

I wrote devastate because I meant devastate. Yes, I mean fuel efficiency and sales. The only sales advantage I see of the B777 over the A350 is earlier availability.

Quoting Nwray (Reply 6):
Also, probably a dumb question, but will Airbus continue to produce A330s after the A350 introduction? Any reason for this?

Yes, Airbus will continue to produce the A330 after the A350 is in production, for as long as there are orders to fulfill. Boeing produced the rope-start B737s for years after the B737NGs entered production.
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1767
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:45 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 3:55 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Normal marketing spin; nothing really insightful this time.

Agree... right down to the size graphic. If you look at it carefully, the vertical scale corresponds to the bottom of the fuselage for B planes, versus the top of the fuselage for A planes. Classic visual distortion of data, beautifully executed... the artiste who did that should be congratulated.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
I'm pessimistic about the A350 because I think the composite fuselage panels are stupid and a manifestation of not-invented-here syndrome. However, I'm prepared to wait and see as the design details are firmed.

I think that'll be interesting. There's a lot of hot air (enough to fill an autoclave) being blown about on the composites issues, and I find it hard to separate signal from noise. There may be some interesting effects with production yield... the bigger the part, the greater the chance of a defect, somewhat like chip wafers or computer displays. I wonder what sort of production yield the 787 contractors are shooting for... 67%, 95%, 99% ?

There are too many variables to consider and no information (at least in the trade press or a.net) on which factors truly drive performance or production cost. One must remember that things are rarely as they seem.
 
leelaw
Posts: 4520
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 4:13 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 4:51 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
I'm pessimistic about the A350 because I think the composite fuselage panels are stupid and a manifestation of not-invented-here syndrome.

I understand the joke going around at ILFC this week is that John Leahy has switched from playing "Three-card Composite Monte" to the "Composite Shell Game." 

[Edited 2006-12-06 08:58:56]
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
flydreamliner
Posts: 1928
Joined: Sat Jan 07, 2006 7:05 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 5:00 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Normal marketing spin; nothing really insightful this time. I'm pessimistic about the A350 because I think the composite fuselage panels are stupid and a manifestation of not-invented-here syndrome.

It's a mistake in the long term. It's cheaper and faster to do composite panels, but it won't likely offer the weight savings of barrels, and so when the barrel composite Y3 comes out, it will be at an advantage.

I think it is a bad move on airbus's part.

I think Boeing needs to get cracking on Y3, so they can keep the sale going once A350 starts to cool the 777 down.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
sparkingwave
Posts: 563
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:01 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 5:01 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
Quoting Nwray (Reply 6):
Devastate or be competitive with? Do you mean fuel efficiency wise?

I wrote devastate because I meant devastate. Yes, I mean fuel efficiency and sales. The only sales advantage I see of the B777 over the A350 is earlier availability.

You don't know what the B777 will be like when the A350 finally comes out. Why do you assume that it will be the same? Do you really think that Boeing is just going to stand still, like Airbus did with the original A350?
Flights to the moon and all major space stations. At Pan Am, the sky is no longer the limit!
 
WingedMigrator
Posts: 1767
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 9:45 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 5:17 pm

Quoting SparkingWave (Reply 14):
Do you really think that Boeing is just going to stand still, like Airbus did with the original A350?

You've answered your own question. The original A350 was to the A330 as an improved B777 would be to the current B777. I'll leave you to predict the result  Smile

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 3):
Y3



Quoting Ken777 (Reply 5):
Y3



Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 13):
Y3

Y3 is all things to all people right now.
 
baron95
Posts: 1106
Joined: Thu May 25, 2006 10:19 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 5:20 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777

Are you serious? Did/will the 787 "devastate" the A330? Of course not, sales of A330 are actually quite healthy after the launch of the 787, even though the 787 is a quite a jump in technology/efficiency.

Even if Boeing does nothing to improve the 77F, 77L and 77W, there are many reasons why the 777 will continue to do well:

1 - Competition for the 77W arrives in 2015, for the 77L and 77F, much later - that is 10 years from now give or take. So Boeing will continue to deliver these planes to carriers worldwide, building substantial fleets.

2 - Comonality alone, will assure follow-up orders. If Delta with 50 777s by 2015 needs 10 more planes on the class, chances are they'll top off with 777s.

3 - Airbus will not have the capacity to build even 1/3 of planes needed in the 300-400 seats, so some orders will go to Boeing and 777 just based on availability.

4 - While the 77L/W/F are very expensive planes, it looks like the A350 is very expensive and then some. In addition, Boeing will be in "milk the cow" mode with the 777 come 2015 and will be able to be very aggressive on price. Airbus on the other hand has to recoup the US$13B investment. So Boeing and the 777 will win some on price.

5 - Some major customers like AA, are very unlikely to buy Airbus. So Boeing and the 777 will win some on loyalty alone.

So, net/net, the A350 will put presure on the 777, but it will hardly "devastate" it.

Now, if Boeing just hangs A350 engines on the 777, of takes 12000 lbs of weight out of them (in progress), etc...well, now the A350 is simply an anoyance.
Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
 
Ruscoe
Posts: 1577
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 1999 5:41 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 5:23 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Certainly, the A350 will devastate the B777

I agree with you if the 777 stays the same, but Boeing will either do the Y3 or upgrade the 777.


What will be the empty weight of the 350-1000. The Trent 1000 for the 787 weighs 12,000lbs and has a max rateing of 75,000lbs, so expect the 2 engines for the 350-10 @95,000 lbs, to add another maybe 5000lbs, plus all the structure necessary to support the extra thrust and size and weight.

Boeings plan I would think will be to lighten the structure enough to allow the use of the same engines as the 350-10, for a similar payload/range but probably inferior effeciency, but cheaper purchase price, to keep the line open until the Y3 comes along.

Ruscoe
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 5:26 pm

Quoting SparkingWave (Reply 14):
You don't know what the B777 will be like when the A350 finally comes out. Why do you assume that it will be the same? Do you really think that Boeing is just going to stand still, like Airbus did with the original A350?

There is nothing Boeing can do to the B777 that would make it competitive with the A350 short of a clean-sheet design. Heck, there is nothing Boeing can do to the B777 to make it competitive with the B787. The B777 was a great airliner (I'll be flying on one two hours from now) but its time is waning. I believe the main reason the B777 is still selling is that it's available (much) sooner than the B787-10.
 
keesje
Posts: 8589
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 5:42 pm

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
NW727251ADV
Posts: 301
Joined: Sun May 01, 2005 5:55 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:13 pm

Emirates is really getting on my nerves with their pompous and pretentious attutude of handling business. They are always trying to pursuade A and B to tailor aircrafts to THEIR specific needs. This isn't the the 60s & 70s when you had manufacturers making aircraft specifically for a certain airline the the DC-10 and L-1011 for United and American or the Trident for British European. And every true aviation enthusiast knows that disaster that became of the Trident as a result of their aircraft being constantly modified to meet the needs of only BEA. Emirates need to take whats offered and if it isn;t good enough then too bad. What do they need all of these planes for outside of entering the aircraft leasing business? They want the 747-8 tailored to suite them; they want the 787-10 tailored to suite them; they want the A350 tailored to suite them; and IIRC they want the A380-900 built to their specifications. EK needs to get down off its high horse. It is one pretentious airline.
NWA   N O R T H W E S T A I R L I N E S
 
User avatar
solnabo
Posts: 5005
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 8:53 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:20 pm

There´s not only EK on high horses, we got SQ who wanna be flying with the state-of-the art/ latest a/c models . They are really whiners iyam, behaving like a spoild brat.

Micke//  Angry
Airbus SAS - Love them both
 
WINGS
Posts: 2312
Joined: Tue May 31, 2005 1:36 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:24 pm

Quoting NW727251ADV (Reply 20):
Emirates is really getting on my nerves with their pompous and pretentious attutude of handling business. They are always trying to pursuade A and B to tailor aircrafts to THEIR specific needs. This isn't the the 60s & 70s when you had manufacturers making aircraft specifically for a certain airline the the DC-10 and L-1011 for United and American or the Trident for British European.

No harm in trying. May I also note that the A380 delays can also be associated to tailoring the plane to the needs of various airlines.

Back on topic, I think that Mr Randy, could have put more effort into his report. Same old stuff as usual.

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
parapente
Posts: 1277
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2006 10:42 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:24 pm

Randy quote..is going to be constructed in a traditional manner, except with composite panels rather than aluminum panels. For an airplane like the 787, we think that sacrifices some of the benefits of going with composite material.

...THe key is ..."like "the 787. He is quite right Boeing do have the most efficient method for aircraft"like" the 787. The panel/shell approach is correct for aircraft "like" the BWB. He is also right to talk as he does at the end for the need for breakthrough technology. It is easily forgotten that it was totally accepted that you could not build a wing stiff enough and light enough as a giant twin (you had to use the weight of the outer engine). The boeing 777 (esp the 300er) was "breakthrough". As will the BWB be. The A350 is Airbus' last mistake
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:30 pm

He is becoming more aggressive in his blog entries directly hitting on Airbus. This is getting unprofessional for an executive and shows that he is getting seriously nervous about A350.
 
User avatar
solnabo
Posts: 5005
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 8:53 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:36 pm

Hell, Randy is payed to doom Airbus and a cheerleader for Boeing´s huge breakthrou like 773ER and BWB(??)..

I rest my case

Micke//  Yeah sure
Airbus SAS - Love them both
 
andessmf
Posts: 5689
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 8:53 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:38 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 24):
his is getting unprofessional for an executive and shows that he is getting seriously nervous about A350.

There is nothing at the moment to get nervous about the A350, they are years behind, giving Boeing years to make actual sales and deliveries. But now Randy gets to have something more to criticize than a paper airplane. And Airbus hasn't made any points by criticizing the 787 concept, while slowly making the A350 closer to the 787.
 
User avatar
solnabo
Posts: 5005
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 8:53 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:48 pm

@ Andes SMF

qote> "Airbus hasn´t made any points by criticizing the 787 concept"

Airbus take the hight road instead of cheap bashing?

Micke//  Wink
Airbus SAS - Love them both
 
bringiton
Posts: 763
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:24 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:54 pm

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 26):
And Airbus hasn't made any points by criticizing the 787 concept

How about some of the Leahy quotes on the 787 ? I'm sure they have been posted before , but what randy has to say is far far more civil then what leahy has said vis-a-vis the 787 , things like

"""Unless [Boeing] have discovered some new law of physics or some new
manufacturing process that nobody in the world has ever heard of --
and we know they have not -- then they either will be sub-optimal, in
which case they will make an airplane and it will cost them a fortune
to do it, or they will come back toward the best engineering and
manufacturing standards and build a plane with less than 30 percent
composites.""""

I bet there are more quotes on Leahy bashing but why spoil the taste of the thread  Wink
 
columba
Posts: 5043
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:57 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 19):
talk, talk

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...EADS-EMIRATES.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

I have just an article in which said that EK is considering to buy the A350XWB.
I would have rather said is in talks with Airbus about the A350XWB but anyway !!
Nevertheless the EK vice president for the European market Mr. Longstaff was quoted saying that since the design of the A350 is not frozen yet they are confident to have an influence on the future specs of the aircraft in order to get an aircraft that suits their requirements best.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
MCIGuy
Posts: 1445
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2006 8:15 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 6:58 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 24):
getting seriously nervous about A350.

OK...
Airliners.net Moderator Team
 
mptpa
Posts: 401
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2006 4:34 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Wed Dec 06, 2006 11:25 pm

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 3):
Boeing need only move up Y3 development by a couple of years to potentially crush the A350. That is, if it turns out to be the ambitious, wide-ranging product it's expected to be.



Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 4):
And once the 787 and 748 are out of the way, Boeing only has two projects to deal with, the 737 and the improvements to the 777.

Even if Boeing starts Y3 in 2011/12, they could bring it in 4 years as that is their development cycle. It would be a NEW technology frame with lots of goodies whereas 350-1000 would be almost 10 years old tech ny then. It would be a great race!

Also, there is noo reason why Boeing cannot do 737 replacement concurrently as the 787 and 748i development would be done, heavy in cash flow from deliveries and so on.

The question comes to mind is if 737 replacement would be called 797, what would the Y3 be, 808? This would be good in Asia as "8" is considered lucky number!! Or even 888!!!
 
osiris30
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 12:08 am

Some thoughts:

@Danny: So let me get this right. Randy is getting nervous because he calls bullshit on Airbus's lies? (Like incorrect comparisons). Ok... I hope the clouds clear and expose that lovely purple sky that exists on your planet.

@All re Y3: If you think Boeing will be doing a BWB aircraft before 2030 (for commercial) perhaps I can interest you in some Martian real-estate as I'll be launch shuttle service there next week. Y3 will be a more conventional approach. There are too many issues with a BWB right now for commercial service any time soon.

Now on Y3 timing, I think we'll see a 5 wide Y1 (half of Y1), then Y3, then the 6 wide Y1. If you look carefully at everything Boeing has said lately this would seem to make the most sense. The advantage of doing the "little" Y1 first is that it gives Boeing the chance to play with new technology in a market that's starved for a viable aircraft. In other words, they don't have to be perfect there, just better than very old and/or inefficient designs. I expect to see PW and RR powering the little Y1 allowing Boeing to study GTF vs 3 spool safely (from a market perspective).

Y3 will be an upscaled 787, 777 like in size, with a composite wing, minor aerodynamic improvments, etc. (As an aside the 777 is an excellent design aerodynamically, given its performance). New engines are, of course, a given for Y3 (which is another reason you'll see the schedule I'm championing. Engine makers can only work on so many power plants at once. Boeing will need GE's full attention on Y3).

Anyway this will indeed be most interesting to watch. I'm still curious how Airbus is planning to hit all the numbers they are talking about though.

My last thought on this subject is that by the time we are looking at Y3, and the 350-1000 I expect a very different landscape in terms of aerospace companies. I expect BAE and BBD will be gone as stand-alone entities (in aerospace). I expect to see Embraer partnered with a Russian or Japanese firm heavily. I expect Airbus will be in bed with at least one Russian or Chinese vendor. I expect Boeing to be partnered even more heavily with a major Japanese corporation for work on some truly advanced tech.

Let's not forget 10 years is an eternity in this business.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
User avatar
semobeila
Posts: 70
Joined: Fri Jun 02, 2006 10:45 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 12:44 am

Reminds me of the pessimistic outlook Boeing gave when Airbus launched the A320... nothing more to add, just marketing blabla.
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:02 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 24):
This is getting unprofessional for an executive and shows that he is getting seriously nervous about A350.

Nervous about what? Airbus has given the 777 a 10 year reprieve. It will certainly top 1000 passenger models.

It's a lot better to sell 1000 copies in 20 years, rather than 30 years.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
grantcv
Posts: 410
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:28 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:30 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 18):
There is nothing Boeing can do to the B777 that would make it competitive with the A350 short of a clean-sheet design. Heck, there is nothing Boeing can do to the B777 to make it competitive with the B787. The B777 was a great airliner (I'll be flying on one two hours from now) but its time is waning. I believe the main reason the B777 is still selling is that it's available (much) sooner than the B787-10.

What are you talking about? This is utter rubbish. The B777 is a larger aircraft than the B787 and serves a different need. There is no B787 model that competes with the B773 and there never will be. The B772 will eventually be replaced by the B7810, but that is down the road. And the B777's time is hardly waning - it's design is merely a decade old. It will be in production for a couple more decades. In a few years, Boeing will do an update - but at this point I doubt the technology advantage of an update is compelling enough to warrant that. It seems to me that members of this forum grow bored with current designs and expect replacements every decade or so - the economics of airliner development won't support that.

Airbus in choosing to compete with the B777 is a smart move for them as the B777 bar is lower than the B787 - but not that much lower - and probably will rise before they get there. On top of that, they will be entering a cyclical market at a time of market saturation - not good timing. Airbus' decision is quite a different decision to Boeing's where Boeing could target an emerging A300/B767 replacement market while producing a breakthrough design that substantially outdoes the A330. There is nothing breakthrough about the A350 - it doesn't change the game the way the B777 did and soon the B787 will.
 
7cubed
Posts: 121
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2006 6:02 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:53 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
I wrote devastate because I meant devastate. Yes, I mean fuel efficiency and sales. The only sales advantage I see of the B777 over the A350 is earlier availability

Could you post a link to the technical data on the new a350? I wasn't aware the performance guarantees were made available yet.
joe
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 13747
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:37 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:56 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 11):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 2):
Normal marketing spin; nothing really insightful this time.

Agree... right down to the size graphic. If you look at it carefully, the vertical scale corresponds to the bottom of the fuselage for B planes, versus the top of the fuselage for A planes. Classic visual distortion of data, beautifully executed... the artiste who did that should be congratulated.

I agree, Randy's blog is getting to be more sizzle, less bacon.

Did you notice how the caption of the artiste's rendering refers to 10 abreast in a 777 as "standard economy" and 9 abreast as "premium economy"? Yuck! 9 abreast is "standard economy", 10 abreast is "sardine can economy"!

Quoting Danny (Reply 24):
He is becoming more aggressive in his blog entries directly hitting on Airbus.

I agree.

Quoting Danny (Reply 24):
This is getting unprofessional for an executive

This is debatable. If you feel this way about Randy, you must feel it twice as much for John Leary.

Quoting Danny (Reply 24):
and shows that he is getting seriously nervous about A350.

Ah, to steal a quote from another a.netter, you've managed to dive into the manure pile and found a pony!

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 26):
But now Randy gets to have something more to criticize than a paper airplane.

Actually, it's really not much more than a paper airplane. The next step is for us to have the kind of data that Widebodyphotog can put into a table so we can compare each A350 to each 787 side by side. I suspect that data does not yet exist, or its variability is so great that Airbus won't release it yet.

Note we haven't seen any firm contracts for A350v6 yet, thus Airbus has yet to guarantee any performance figures to anybody yet.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 26):
And Airbus hasn't made any points by criticizing the 787 concept, while slowly making the A350 closer to the 787.

Yes, A350v1..v6 is a study in how to start out with an A330 and migrate it to being as close to a 787 as possible.

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 27):
qote> "Airbus hasn�t made any points by criticizing the 787 concept"

Airbus take the hight road instead of cheap bashing?

Read some of Mr. Leary's quotes above, and tell me again how Airbus is taking the high road.

Also, a very good selective quote from you - you don't address the fact that Airbus has started out with hanging new engines on an A330 and has ended up doing its damnedest to clone the 787, but has done a poor job at it. They've tried to follow Boeing's lead on composites, but when is Airbus going to move away from all the old-tech pneumatics and hydraulics?
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 1:57 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 32):
@Danny: So let me get this right. Randy is getting nervous because he calls bullshit on Airbus's lies?

About lies read here:
http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...oeing+claims+over+A380+weight.html
 
osiris30
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:03 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 38):
About lies read here:
http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles....html

Danny:

Never did I say Boeing hasn't done the same thing. However, I didn't see you taking Airbus's spokespeople to task for their 'agressive and unprofessional' responses to Boeing. Clearly Airbus must be seriously worried about the 748i using your logic.

When one company spouts off BS the other will respond strongly.. they have to, or they are admitting what the other company is saying is true.

Again, don't confuse defusing BS with being overly concerned about a competitors product.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:32 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 37):
Did you notice how the caption of the artiste's rendering refers to 10 abreast in a 777 as "standard economy" and 9 abreast as "premium economy"? Yuck! 9 abreast is "standard economy", 10 abreast is "sardine can economy"!

I'll take 10-across with 34' seat pitch ANY day over 9-across with 31-32' seat pitch.... yes 
"Up the Irons!"
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 3:46 am

Quoting WINGS (Reply 22):
Back on topic, I think that Mr Randy, could have put more effort into his report. Same old stuff as usual.

He put more effort in than Airbus did with
New Airbus Website To Promote A350XWB
http://www.airbus.com/store/mm_repository/flash/a350xwb/airbus/

Quoting Danny (Reply 24):
He is becoming more aggressive in his blog entries directly hitting on Airbus. This is getting unprofessional for an executive

Danny, you need to develop a thicker skin.

Randy has more class in his little finger than Leahy has in his whole body.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:02 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 41):

Randy has more class in his little finger than Leahy has in his whole body.

"Boeing was one of the co-sponsors of the study. We took part because nobody had ever formally studied the issue in this manner. Before now, there was no hard data to support the conventional wisdom that liberalizing air travel had tangible economic benefits.

Although Airbus did not take part in the study, it's important to point out that both companies will benefit from liberalization since it so clearly leads to growth in air travel and the need for really good, efficient airplanes.

And I'm feeling more liberated just talking about how it helps both of us! "

that's a quote from Randy's Blog..

The only think I ever hear from Airbus Management is how much better their planes are, how they are going to crush Boeing at every opportunity, and how dismissive they are of Boeing planes....
"Up the Irons!"
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:58 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 4:13 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
I wrote devastate because I meant devastate. Yes, I mean fuel efficiency and sales. The only sales advantage I see of the B777 over the A350 is earlier availability.

I would have to say that this is a big advantage, wouldn't you? What use is a plane design that is 7-8 years away from fruition to an airline that needs capacity very soon? How many did KE just buy? How many did PAL just buy? By the way, I don't think many people realize just how big of a coup the sale to PAL was! They had every intention of going all Airbus not too long ago.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 5:40 am

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 35):
This is utter rubbish. The B777 is a larger aircraft than the B787 and serves a different need.

The B787 has an exterior cross section of 226x235 while the B777 has an external cross section of 244x244, however, the internal cross section is much nearer because the B787 has thinner fuselage walls. Both are/will be configured 9 abreast. The need they both serve is to transport passengers and cargo. The B787 just does it more efficiently.

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 35):
There is no B787 model that competes with the B773 and there never will be.

We don't know that. Boeing could quite easily build a B787-11 with about the same cabin floor area as the B777-300ER if they wanted to.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 43):
I would have to say that this is a big advantage, wouldn't you?

For now, yes.
 
User avatar
glideslope
Posts: 1422
Joined: Sun May 30, 2004 8:06 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 6:03 am

Quoting Solnabo (Reply 25):
Hell, Randy is payed to doom Airbus and a cheerleader for Boeing´s huge breakthrou like 773ER and BWB(??)..

I rest my case

Micke//  

So quote some intentional misinformation from Randy over the years? He is right on with this blog. If not for the "Bail Out" Airbus would be bankrupt yesterday. Airbus completely blew the 200-400 seat forcast. IMO, the 380 will never sell more than 200 frames.

You have him mistaken for Mr. Leahy.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
grantcv
Posts: 410
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:28 pm

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 6:26 am

Quoting Glideslope (Reply 45):
Hell, Randy is payed to doom Airbus and a cheerleader for Boeing´s huge breakthrou like 773ER and BWB

While Randy is paid to promote Boeing, his blog is always well informed. The statements he makes are always valid, even if he does promote the Boeing angle. His counterpart over at Airbus repeatedly makes less than thoughtful comments that invariably are discredited shortly afterwards. So much of the information out of Airbus over the last few years has proven to be hype, hoopla, and general misinformation that it is beginning to be difficult to know what to believe. Airbus really need to spend more time on getting their stories straight before broadcast them out. If I were in the market to buy some airliners, I would be so very skeptical of everything they say at this point.
 
RIX
Posts: 1589
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2000 4:46 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 11:05 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 44):
Boeing could quite easily build a B787-11 with about the same cabin floor area as the B777-300ER

But then A350 is a toast (assuming, 78B at least matches 773 in range)...
 
Acheron
Posts: 1825
Joined: Mon Sep 05, 2005 1:14 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:19 pm

Nice to see a lot of so called aviation enthusiasts wishing the A350 and Airbus to fail.
 
osiris30
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: Randy Baseler On XWB Launch

Thu Dec 07, 2006 2:33 pm

Quoting Acheron (Reply 48):
Nice to see a lot of so called aviation enthusiasts wishing the A350 and Airbus to fail.

Wishing it they will fail.. no I don't see that (other than a few odd exceptions).. speculating that they might, sure. Tired of the constant bullshit from Airbus (and their supporters)? You betcha. Tired of snide comments that add nothing, 100%. Wishing failure.. no.. worried about it.. yes.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AirPacific747, atlflyer, azstar, Baidu [Spider], coronado, FergYVR, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], HALtheAI, ikolkyo, IPFreely, jetstar, jpetekyxmd80, legacyins, MrHMSH, msycajun, Prost, TailDragging, thekorean, thomasphoto60, UltraAmps, Yahoo [Bot], YYCowboy, zkanz, zkncj and 255 guests