NW748i
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NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 3:43 am

Hi All,

I'm a longtime visitor/fan of a.net and finally bought a membership. This is my first post, so hopefully I don't break any rules! Anyway, most of you have heard that NW is wanting to bring in some merger consultants (see http://www.financialrealtime.com/sto...tories/financial-news555811.html). Care to share your suspicions as to what they're up to? Hoping to find a buyer or looking to do some acquiring? Who?

My thought is that their first choice is CO as their target, especially since CO recently stated (http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1164144487.html) that they'd participate in 'The Great Game' of todays US airline industry...
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
dtwclipper
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 3:48 am

Welcome to a.net!

Quoting NW748i (Thread starter):
This is my first post, so hopefully I don't break any rules!

First rule broken...not checking to see how many threads on the same topic are already in play. Big grin  Big grin  Big grin


NW Hires Merger Consultant (by WorldTraveler Dec 8 2006 in Civil Aviation)
Compare New York Air, the Airline that works for your Business
 
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jetjack74
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 4:14 am

Quoting Dtwclipper (Reply 1):
First rule broken...not checking to see how many threads on the same topic are already in play.

Stay away from NWA DC9 retirement threads
Made from jets!
 
Alitalia744
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 4:20 am

Welcome to a.net.

it's (for the most part) a great bunch - just avoid duplicating subjects and talking about NWA's DC9s and you'll be fine!

 Smile

-G
Some see lines, others see between the lines.
 
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TVNWZ
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 4:41 am

Welcome to A-Net! NW is looking to buy/sell/merge. Something is going to happen. What, we don't know. My guess is still that NW and DL will eventually get together, but others will disagree. But, NW could pull off a buy using venture capitol money. No scenerio would surprise me.

Just for the record, when do you think NW will retire the DC-9s?  Big grin
 
isitsafenow
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 5:15 am

Whats a DC-9?

I have a weird sense of humor NW748i...
Being the DC9 king here with almost 600 rides I say Welcome and have a
great ride here on A Net..
safe  blockhead 
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
 
nitrohelper
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 5:25 am

Quoting TVNWZ (Reply 4):
Just for the record, when do you think NW will retire the DC-9s? Big grin

What, NWA is going to get rid of their DC-9s ? Who started that rumor ? They are just taking a rest in the desert! Its cold in MSP this time of year.  biggrin 
 
worldtraveler
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 5:37 am

Nothing at all could happen to NW... they are just exploring options.

The fact that their consultant gets a bonus if a merger occurs does help to move things along but we're seeing that even Dougie can't make a merger work if there aren't two willing partners.
 
NW748i
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 6:48 am

If nothing happens with CO, my next dream-come-true would be for AF/KLM to pick them up. However, given that last week the Whitehouse dropped their pressure to ease up on the foreign ownership restrictions, the likelihood of that outcome looks bleak at best. I think a deal with CO is the best bet for NW (tho not necessarily for vice versa).
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
kstateinALB
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 7:08 am

I just joined yesterday as well, an excellent group of people on here.

To the topic... the only reasonable merger I could see regarding fleets is either UA or US, just because of the Airbuses in the domestic fleet going together, and especially UA with the 747's. But thats probably why I'm not part of a merger consultant company.
ALB, DTW, ORD, MDW, MCI, JFK, LGA, LHR, MAD, MSP, IAD, DCA, MCO, ATL, CVG, TUL, MHK, PHL, PIT, DFW, DAL, CLT, IND, AUS,
 
rwsea
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 7:20 am

NW/US Merger makes lots of sense from a fleet, hub, and route structure standpoint.

NW/DL makes some sense based on hub and flight structure, but less sense based on fleet and employee standpoint.

NW/CO makes some sense based on hub and flight structure, but less sense based on fleet and employee standpoint.

NW/UA makes no sense since due to its overlapping hubs and the likely anti-trust implications in Asia.
 
gregarious119
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 7:24 am

From my understanding, they hired the consultant just to be prepared. It doesn't necessarily mean they are looking or actively being sought, but a consultant like this will help them plan out the many different scenarios in play.

It probably helps to have someone that knows about mergers in the BK arena, as I'm sure that fact alone could complicate matters many times over.

Personally I think NW/US makes the most sense....but hey, if US is going to try to take on DL first, I'm not sure they've got all their ducks in a row.
 
steeler83
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 7:27 am

Quoting KstateinALB (Reply 10):
To the topic... the only reasonable merger I could see regarding fleets is either UA or US, just because of the Airbuses in the domestic fleet going together, and especially UA with the 747's. But thats probably why I'm not part of a merger consultant company.

True, plus NW would get western hub/focus city with PHX and LAS, as well as East Coast ops at PHL and CLT, while maintaining its midwestern hubs at MSP and DTW.

HOWEVER... US has emphatically stated they are not interested in NW because of labor and culture differences. UA may be a little better, although I don't think it has the cash for any acquisition/merger with anybody. If such a merger were to happen, sure there is the aircraft similarities, but they would also pick up an east coast hub at IAD, and a west coast hub at SFO, as well as AND CURRENT: Denver - International (DEN / KDEN), USA - Colorado">DEN, though not so West Coast. Plus some Europe routes, including LHR. An area of interest with the hubs, there would be 3 large ones in fairly close proximity of one another: ORD, MSP, DTW... Anybody think that having large hubs at ORD, MSP AND DTW might be a problem on here, or no?
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
kstateinALB
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 11:15 am

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 13):
Anybody think that having large hubs at ORD, MSP AND DTW might be a problem on here, or no?

I do agree with you Steeler83.. having the hubs in close proximity in each other would be a problem. However, could they take out one of those, maybe MSP, and have ORD and DTW there for hubs? I think that it could work, just things like that would have to take some time to figure out.
ALB, DTW, ORD, MDW, MCI, JFK, LGA, LHR, MAD, MSP, IAD, DCA, MCO, ATL, CVG, TUL, MHK, PHL, PIT, DFW, DAL, CLT, IND, AUS,
 
isitsafenow
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 11:17 am

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 8):
Excuse Me? Wow!

Ok..ok...... so I'm now a runner up...
darn that JetJack anyways....  tongue 
At last count mine was 566....just on the niner... USAir,CO,TW,NC,RC,EA,DL,OZ,
Midway,Hawaiian and of course most were on this airline with a redtail. I have been on ALL of theirs. I have the N numbers and my flight log documented.
The most ridden is N770NC, a model 50, ten times

safe
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NW748i
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Wed Dec 13, 2006 11:59 pm

Does anyone know if NW has even been 'unofficially' approached regarding a merger prospect? Even a rumor??? I see that CO and UA are at least in preliminary talks (http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1166013319.html). Quite frankly, I think those two were NW's best realistic hopes (tho US would do, despite my dislike of them). If NW's announcement that they are hiring these consultants doesn't spur interest in them as a merger partner, I'm thinking they might be in real trouble...

That's especially bad for DTW and the whole SE Michigan region. I think that DTW is about the best thing that the area has going for it, seriously. Things up there are going from bad to worse monthly on the economic front...

In fact, I was stunned to hear that LH was adding another frequency and giving DTW two daily from FRA. But that's a story for another thread.
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
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falstaff
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:35 am

Quoting NW748i (Reply 15):
That's especially bad for DTW and the whole SE Michigan region. I think that DTW is about the best thing that the area has going for it, seriously. Things up there are going from bad to worse monthly on the economic front...

South Eastern Michigan is in one hell of a slump. I live very close to DTW in a lower middle class neighborhood and the disappearing manufacturing jobs have hit my neighborhood very hard. We in the "D" don't need to lose a big employer, like NW. If the DTW hub was to go away, like TWA at STL, it would be another fork in the burnt steak which is our local economy.

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 5):
Being the DC9 king here with almost 600 rides

That is cool! I though I had a lot. I never counted before, but I would think I am probably around 100 or so. A few more if you count those TWA MD-80s as DC-9s.

Quoting Alitalia744 (Reply 3):
just avoid duplicating subjects and talking about NWA's DC9s and you'll be fine!

NWA DC-9s rule!
My mug slaketh over on Falstaff N503
 
nwafflyer
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:41 am

Welcome to A-net. And, ignore these people with their DC-9 rumors, NW is never going to retire them, the world of avaition would just be too boring
 
jsquared
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 3:54 am

Quoting Falstaff (Reply 16):
South Eastern Michigan is in one hell of a slump. I live very close to DTW in a lower middle class neighborhood and the disappearing manufacturing jobs have hit my neighborhood very hard. We in the "D" don't need to lose a big employer, like NW. If the DTW hub was to go away, like TWA at STL, it would be another fork in the burnt steak which is our local economy.

I think this is the part of merger scenarios that most people don't think about. While its debatable whether or not consolidation is better for the industry as a whole, the impact to the local economies in some hub/focus cities would certainly be detrimental.

Take for example my Northwest at MSP doomsday scenario: NW is a major employer in the Twin Cities (I dont have an exact number, but its big) thanks to the MSP hub and corporate HQ in Eagan. Should they be bought out by a carrier with a large hub at ORD for example, I would imagine that the number of flights to MSP would be drastically reduced, and many of those hard working folks would be out of a job or forced to relocate if they wanted to stay with the company. Jobs for baggage handlers, gate and check-in staff, aircraft servicing companies, etc would likely all be cut down, while pilot and FA jobs could be relocated to other cities.

Please correct me if I'm exaggerating or being overly dramatic, but I just don't see how consolidation could possibly be beneficial for any of Northwest's hub cities. However if it must happen, I would think that merging with US or DL would have the smallest impact to local economies.

Thoughts?
 
NW748i
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 5:08 am

Quoting Falstaff (Reply 16):
South Eastern Michigan is in one hell of a slump. I live very close to DTW...

I'm born and raised in "the 'D'" (suburbs). But in October I got the hell outta there with all due swiftness--moved to DC/Metro. Being here, Michigan looks even worse as I participate in and consider the good economic times in other parts of the country. Considering the situation there, I presume that Christmas is a rather dismal affair for many this year. Despite that, I'll look forward to flying into DTW next week to spend some time with the fams.

Quoting JSquared (Reply 18):
the impact to the local economies in some hub/focus cities would certainly be detrimental.

You don't know how right you are! If this aspect interests you, check out this study provided by IATA: http://www.iata.org/NR/rdonlyres/AFE...E5F/0/airline_network_benefits.pdf
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
bobnwa
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 6:20 am

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 12):
UA may be a little better, although I don't think it has the cash for any acquisition/merger with anybody.

Available cash is not needed to propose a merger, just access to equity lenders. I believe that US does not have a single dollar of its own cash involves in the DL merger proposal. Is roughly 4 billion in borrowed money and 4 billion US stock. That was how PA proposed to buy NW back in the early 90's, when PA had negative cash and NW had 900 million in cash and zero debts. With the right backers, Mesa could propose to buy AA or UA!
 
D L X
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 7:38 am

Have you noticed that NW is the only "mergeable" major without a dance partner currently? (I don't list AA because I think they're too big to merge with anyone but a small carrier like AS.)

UA seems to be getting buddy-buddy with CO (while fooling around with DL on the side?)

DL is fending off the unwanted advances of US (but may be forced to dance if UA/CO happens)

even AirTran and Midwest are having a little chat.

Who's talking to NW? Maybe the strife at NW is just too deep to cut through.

This is sounding more and more like an 8th grade dance.
 
bobnwa
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 8:08 am

Quoting D L X (Reply 21):
Who's talking to NW? Maybe the strife at NW is just too deep to cut through.

As I have said before, don't fool around with big red!!!!
 
burnsie28
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 8:57 am

NW isn't looking to merge, they are just hiring people to do research if others merge and whats the best route for the company to go.
 
NW748i
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 10:29 am

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 23):
NW isn't looking to merge

So are you putting then in the same camp that CO was in a couple weeks ago when they said that they would essentially "respond accordingly?" I imagine that if that company says "merge," NW will be looking to do that...
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
steeler83
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:38 pm

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 10):
NW/US Merger makes lots of sense from a fleet, hub, and route structure standpoint.

I have said that this is unlikely, but just out of curiosity, what would the list of hubs/focus cities look like if this was up to you?

Quoting Bobnwa (Reply 20):
Available cash is not needed to propose a merger, just access to equity lenders. I believe that US does not have a single dollar of its own cash involves in the DL merger proposal. Is roughly 4 billion in borrowed money and 4 billion US stock. That was how PA proposed to buy NW back in the early 90's, when PA had negative cash and NW had 900 million in cash and zero debts. With the right backers, Mesa could propose to buy AA or UA!

Ah, I should have not counted out stock and backers/lenders. Duh!!  dopey  silly 
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
rwsea
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 1:53 pm

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 25):
I have said that this is unlikely, but just out of curiosity, what would the list of hubs/focus cities look like if this was up to you?

Hubs in MSP, DTW, CLT, PHL, PHX, with smaller focus cities in LAS/PIT. LAX, SEA, NRT, HNL, and AMS remain gateways/international hubs.

US is pretty weak in the center of the country. NW is weak on the East Coast, and in the west (except for trans-pacific and trans-atlantic service).
 
steeler83
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:01 pm

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 26):
Hubs in MSP, DTW, CLT, PHL, PHX, with smaller focus cities in LAS/PIT. LAX, SEA, NRT, HNL, and AMS remain gateways/international hubs.

So basically IND and MEM are scrapped in your eyes? I could see how MEM would be. I heard that the facility is awful!

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 26):
US is pretty weak in the center of the country. NW is weak on the East Coast, and in the west (except for trans-pacific and trans-atlantic service).

Both agreed, but I don't think US is interested in connecting the dots any better in the Midwest. I think if they build up any Midwest cities, it will be mostly adding for frequencies to their hubs/focus cities on the East (PHL, CLT, maybe PIT) and West (PHX, LAS)
Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 
ckfred
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:11 pm

A friend of mine is a pilot with AA. AA has no interest in a merger, since it still has issues from the purchase of TW.

But, if US/DL merger goes through, and CO and UA merge, AA will have a size issue, of lack-of-size issue to consider. The logical choice is NW.

That merger is problematic. First, the fleets are completely incompatible. Both fly 757s, but I think there is an engine issue. There is some compatibility on the DC-9/MD-80 fleet, but AA is starting to look at replacing the MD-80 fleet at some point down the road.

Second is the hub issue. Between MSP, ORD, DTW, STL, and MEM, one of them has to go, and probably two should go. MEM is better positioned, compared to STL, since it can get a better feed from the Southeast.

ORD is limited in growth until the 3rd east-west runway opens, and the 2nd control tower opens. But, ORD probably gets more O&D traffic than DTW or MSP. So, which of the three does the merged carrier close?

If AA is the acquiring carrier and then closes two of its hubs, the unions are going to scream.

Even if AA/NW decides to close only MEM or STL, merging the seniority lists will be a problem. AA's pilots were mad over the handling of the QQ merger, and TW's unions felt they were shafted by AA's unions.

The problem is that the mergers that look good on paper have been done, and the remaining carriers just don't fit well together, either because of fleet problems, overlapping hubs and/or routes, or union and employee culture problems.
 
NASCARAirforce
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:26 pm

With DL and US in there little dance, and UA and CO talking - if both of those go through, AA won't want to be left in the cold and it would be inevitable that they would gun for NW especially in Asia.

This has been discussed to death before, but I will bring it up again...

True Detroit's economy sucks ass right now. I been unfortunately up in Detroit for the past 6 months due to a family emergency, but will be heading back to Sunny Central Florida soon. I just wanted to get a temporary seasonal job even part time just to pay the bills till I work in Florida and that is near impossible up here.

However... if AA and NW were to merge, DTW might not be in such dire straits as people think. True AA has a huge hub at ORD and they have a big market...

However...

1. AA has to share a market with WN and UA in Chicago, in Detroit they would have 7 million to pretty much themselves, which is bigger than than their market share they have to split in Chicago...

2. They are still using an old terminal at ORD, with some nice new areas, but at DTW they would have the nice shiney new almost only 5 years old MAC

3. They would have four parallel and two crosswind runways at DTW, compared to runways going in all directions at ORD that frequently get shut down to just 2 -3 runways during IFR conditions, causing many delays.

4. FIS in same building as domestic making for quicker connections for International passengers connecting to local flights, vs. seperate terminals for international and domestic at ORD.

5. Less delays - runways discussed already, but they won't be stuck behind a bunch of UA aircraft waiting to take off or land. Being DTW is less busy, they will be less delay prone saving them money over the long run. There are people who deliberately avoid connecting through ORD for that reason. People no longer try to avoid DTW like they did back in the Davey days.

6. More gate space at DTW. Concourse B and C is nice for Eagle Operations, while A is great for mainline AA. Offers more gates than ORD.

7. ORD is using a pier finger terminal, vs. Linear airside/landside that DTW has. Smoother operations in winter weather (think old DTW Davey during 1999 Blizzard)

8. O'Hare Modernization wouldn't need to be as extreme or costly if AA merged with NW and moved its ORD operations to DTW. They probably wouldn't need six parallel runways, probably just 4 parallels if UA were the sole hub airline there. The AA operations would drop congestion significantly at ORD lessening the need for so many runways, displacing houses and cemetaries, which will take forever to ever finish anyway due to lawsuits from communities. If AA stays and ORD Modernization is done to fullest, it wouldn't be completed until 2016... by then traffic levels would make modernization again obsolete at a cost of 15 billion, which I am sure AA would be footing part of the bill.

9. Room to expand at DTW. ORD is locked in by communities, cemetaries etc on all four sides. DTW has room to expand especially on south side and somewhat on west side (with exception of Downtown Romulus and I-275). There is room for more terminal space if needed at DTW (directly across from the McNamara Terminal between Runway 22R and 22L) for a facility almost as big as the current Mac that could be connected by underground people mover, or accessed by road on south side. There is really not much room available at ORD, without having to reconfigure runways for more terminal space or tearing down current terminals and building new (like UA did at ORD). Plus Concourse B and C could further be built out.

10. DTW has less weather issues. Besides the Blizzards of 1999 and 2000, DTW doesn't get as much snow as ORD.


I know some people are going to flame me saying I am crazy and that AA would never move its hub from ORD to DTW if NW and AA were to merge. Think about the 10 issues I mentioned though
 
NW748i
Topic Author
Posts: 235
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 2:47 pm

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 27):
I could see how MEM would be. I heard that the facility is awful!

But it has a great BBQ joint...

However, seriously, I think a combined AA/NW could do without STL and MSP as hubs.

Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 29):
AA has to share a market with WN and UA in Chicago, in Detroit they would have 7 million to pretty much themselves

What are AA's weekly O&D numbers from ORD? I just have a hard time seeing them give up a hub in a world class city like Chicago for Detroit with it's 7 million (an increasing portion of whom are jobless and looking to fly WN at best) that is decreasing daily... Methinks they'd more use it to relieve ORD and perhaps focus on O&D at ORD while shifting those only connecting at ORD instead to DTW.

Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 29):
Downtown Romulus...

Now I'm totally lost... I didn't even know such a thing existed.
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
centrair
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 3:05 pm

Can't see AA and NW. Fleet, routes, everything just doesn't fit. Not to mention they seem determined to get on solid footing and keep going not do something reckless.

UA-NW...not a chance in hell. Too much monopoly. Basically one airline would just cease to exist. All NW hubs would be gone. The NW Asia routes and Japan 5th freedom sold off to another carrier. And Union MESS MESS MESS.

NW-DL...would be nice, but can't see it. DL could certainly use the NW Asia routes, but I think that this would be a marriage made in hell.

NW-CO...culture, fleet MESS in Hell.

I think US should drop DL, turn around and go for NW. DL is an up-hill fight. NW is not so much. Though the employee culture is a mess at NW, new management and a corporate plan would certain change that. An NW/US merger would add more A333s and even A332s to the fleet. The US order for A350s would be dropped for the 787 one under NW. NW/US would have a Southwestern Hub to launch South American routes, an East Coast hub for Europe, Two northern hubs for Europe and Asia and two west coast hubs for Asian/Australian ops. They would have the largest A320 series fleet in the world! The US 767s and 737s would be gone. The 744s would remain. NW has ERJs coming in and many options. I would say the DC-9s would be GONE. Their combined fleet would make NW/US one of the most modern.

Personally I would like to see NW get bought by a conglomerate that would divide it into an International and Domestic product with profits shared between what would be subsidiaries. As said in another thread, a Swire Group type thing would be nice.
My name is Centrair but HND is closer. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
rampart
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 3:51 pm

Quoting Centrair (Reply 31):
Can't see AA and NW. Fleet, routes, everything just doesn't fit. Not to mention they seem determined to get on solid footing and keep going not do something reckless.

Mention on this evening's ABC national news, AA is talking to NW (in response to the flurry of partnerships being discussed this week). Haven't heard much more about it.

Regardless of that, your proposals above make sense to me. This merger/consolidation frenzy is going directions I would not have guessed.

-Rampart
 
azjubilee
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 7:04 pm

As mentioned, I think NWA/US makes more sense than DL/US. Everything from fleet to route structure match well. I'm not so sure CLT would be the best gateway to the southeast however. MEM is better located and is more central for the "south" than CLT. While CLT facilities are nicer, MEM can be spruced up if MSCAA spent some coin on the terminals. CLT o&d might be higher, but the operation is more expensive. I could see actually CLT getting ditched over MEM.

NWA loves control. I would imagine a caveat would involve keeping MSP as mecca but Parker would have to stay. NWA needs new, fresh and innovative mgmt with a bright outlook. Perhaps facilities could be divided between MSP and PHX. Who knows... those details are for the highly paid execs so hash out.

Oh, and I maintain that if the price was right, NWA would allow a CO link up with someone else. Like say the price was... GUM/AirMike and some other valuable asset like the NRT slots and China authorities.


AZJ

AZJ
 
fewsolarge
Posts: 398
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 7:37 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 7:46 pm

How about this: AA buys NW's Pacific division and NW uses the cash to buy AirTran.  stirthepot 
 
azjubilee
Posts: 3437
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2000 5:26 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 8:09 pm

Ithink NWA would have to be seconds from deaths door before it sells the Pacific division. I doubt anyone would go the route of PanAm, selling profitable assets to remain alive. It hasn't work in the past, why would it work now? The Pacific operation is NWA jewel in its crown, as LHR and the Pacific division is for UAL.


AZJ
 
thegooddoctor
Posts: 418
Joined: Thu Nov 10, 2005 8:12 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 10:36 pm

Did I read correctly here that if NW and US merge, DC-9s would be resurrected from the Desert to run a half-hourly PHX/LAX/LAS shuttle?

How exciting!  Wink

S
The GoodDoctor
 
NW748i
Topic Author
Posts: 235
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:40 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 10:57 pm

Quoting Fewsolarge (Reply 34):

Sheesh... the management at NW isn't THAT bad.
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
NW748i
Topic Author
Posts: 235
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 11:18 pm

Quoting Rampart (Reply 32):
AA is talking to NW...

Did ABC give any specifics?
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
NASCARAirforce
Posts: 2452
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 7:27 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 11:21 pm

Quoting NW748i (Reply 30):
Methinks they'd more use it to relieve ORD and perhaps focus on O&D at ORD while shifting those only connecting at ORD instead to DTW.

Yeah, they wouldn't shut down AA's hub at ORD completely. I for one could see an hourly 767-300 shuttle between DTW and ORD - probably a lot carrying employees that don't want to move to the Detroit area (and who could blame them).

On the big O and D routes - LAX, MCO, MIA, DFW, LGA, BOS etc there would still be point to point flights from ORD. However, the big Northwest O and D routes out of DTW would stay at DTW but in AA colors, as well as transfer operations. I could see AA taking advantage of moving most of its International to the McNamara Terminal, with exception of LHR, which would probably stay at ORD... or one to DTW and one to ORD

Quoting NW748i (Reply 30):
Now I'm totally lost... I didn't even know such a thing existed.

That is sort of a joke, but there actually is/was a Downtown Romulus - where the Landing Strip Nudie Bar is. Other than the Landing Strip, there isn't much else to Down Town Romulus, except for a bunch of houses that would need to be displaced if another runway were to be built to the west of 22R - as well as railroad tracks.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 31):
US order for A350s would be dropped for the 787 one under NW.

Not so easy. The A350s were ordered as part of an agreement between US and Airbus for Airbus bailing out US financially.

Quoting Fewsolarge (Reply 34):
AA buys NW's Pacific division and NW uses the cash to buy AirTran

That really is strirring the pot and nor does it make sense. Why would Northwest sell what is practically its only profitable section and what would Northwest gain by buying Air Tran? XM radio? an overcrowed ATL hub? Oh yeah - 717s to replace those DC-9s.
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2219
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Thu Dec 14, 2006 11:37 pm

Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 39):
Yeah, they wouldn't shut down AA's hub at ORD completely. I for one could see an hourly 767-300 shuttle between DTW and ORD - probably a lot carrying employees that don't want to move to the Detroit area (and who could blame them).

On the big O and D routes - LAX, MCO, MIA, DFW, LGA, BOS etc there would still be point to point flights from ORD. However, the big Northwest O and D routes out of DTW would stay at DTW but in AA colors, as well as transfer operations. I could see AA taking advantage of moving most of its International to the McNamara Terminal, with exception of LHR, which would probably stay at ORD... or one to DTW and one to ORD

AA would keep ORD most likely as-is. The O&D and yield at Chicago is very strong. I could see smaller communities funneled through MSP and DTW however and AA using those slots at ORD for more higher yielding/lucrative routes.

Interesting point about London - AA is a Heathrow designated carrier and Detroit is a Heathrow gateway. AA could shift Detroit-London to Heathrow immediately (pending the landing slot) if this marriage were to happen.
 
fewsolarge
Posts: 398
Joined: Wed Dec 29, 2004 7:37 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Fri Dec 15, 2006 1:23 am

Quoting NASCARAirforce (Reply 39):
the Landing Strip Nudie Bar

What a perfect name!
 
NW748i
Topic Author
Posts: 235
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:40 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Fri Dec 15, 2006 1:47 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 40):
AA would keep ORD most likely as-is. The O&D and yield at Chicago is very strong. I could see smaller communities funneled through MSP and DTW however and AA using those slots at ORD for more higher yielding/lucrative routes.

I agree 95%... drop MSP for international (maybe keep AMS and NRT) and I'll give you the extra 5%. NW doesn't give them many transoceanic routes relative to DTW.

O&D at Chicago reigns supreme in this case. In my opinion, ORD can handle long-haul for the entire catchment area, while DTW can handle smaller airports (e.g., MKE, STL, CLE) in the region for long-haul.
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
BigGSFO
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RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Fri Dec 15, 2006 2:02 am

Quoting NW748i (Reply 42):
I agree 95%... drop MSP for international (maybe keep AMS and NRT) and I'll give you the extra 5%. NW doesn't give them many transoceanic routes relative to DTW.

Well I could see NRT and LGW staying in MSP. If AA were to acquire NW, the ties with KL might be severed in favor of oneworld carriers. If that's the case, AMS will see a pull down (but probably not a pull-out). Add to this the remote chance of ATI AA/BA, then we could see London as the new Eurohub. But it's all speculation of course.

DTW would keep it's most lucrative transoceanic flights naturally. I have no idea what they are, but since the money is on international flying, I'd expect these flights to remain intact.
 
BOS2LAF
Posts: 353
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:21 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Fri Dec 15, 2006 2:06 am

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 26):
Hubs in MSP, DTW, CLT, PHL, PHX, with smaller focus cities in LAS/PIT. LAX, SEA, NRT, HNL, and AMS remain gateways/international hubs.

Don't forget DCA, they'd have to have their heads up their  butthead  to give up those slots.


I still think the best partner for NW would be DL. As much of a logistical mess it would be, stragetically I think it would be great.

  • DL is one of the strongest to Europe, and NW is one of the strongest to Asia. It would give the merged airline a truly global presence.

  • MEM and CVG would likely be reduced to small focus cities.

  • Hubs would be DTW, MSP, ATL, JFK, SLC, AMS, NRT.

  • Focus cities would be: MEM, CVG, BOS, IND, I've read rumors on here that DL may build up LAX, and to some extent, LGA would be a focus city to a certain extent because of the shuttle ops combined with the point to point routes of both airlines.


Now of course, that raises a lot of logistical issues, but given the strength of the combined route network, I don't think those issues would be insurmountable.
 
bobnwa
Posts: 4485
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2000 12:10 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Fri Dec 15, 2006 2:07 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 43):
DTW would keep it's most lucrative transoceanic flights naturally. I have no idea what they are, but since the money is on international flying, I'd expect these flights to remain intact

You don't even know what they are, but you want Northwest to keep them?
 
NW748i
Topic Author
Posts: 235
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:40 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Fri Dec 15, 2006 2:24 am

Quoting BOS2LAF (Reply 44):
I still think the best partner for NW would be DL.

I would be happy with that. I just see so many potential problems, the most serious being uncertainty. With both in BK they will need to do some serious collaborating as far as a plan for success. I'm wondering whose name would prevail... I really like the NW livery!

Quoting Bobnwa (Reply 45):
You don't even know what they are, but you want Northwest to keep them?

Perhaps he's operating off the principle that int'l ops is where the money is for all carriers (at least at present). All the carriers are cognizant of this and are planning accordingly. Consider CO and DL butressing their transatlantic structures with more flights...
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
BigGSFO
Posts: 2219
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2005 5:27 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Fri Dec 15, 2006 2:25 am

Quoting Bobnwa (Reply 45):
You don't even know what they are, but you want Northwest to keep them?

I said the most lucrative and didn't want to imply I knew which ones those would be. If I had to guess, I would say Japan has the best yields given auto industry contracts, which I assume NW has secured given their hub status in Detroit. London might make money - could make even more if switched to Heathrow. US-Amsterdam is traditionally a seasonal market with terrible yields, but perhaps NW carries a lot of Middle East traffic over AMS? Again I don't know. My point is that I speculate Detroit will keep an international presence based on what is the most profitable vs. traffic that can be routed elsewhere (i.e. JFK, ORD, MIA, etc).
 
NW748i
Topic Author
Posts: 235
Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 2:40 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Fri Dec 15, 2006 2:56 am

Quoting BigGSFO (Reply 47):
London might make money - could make even more if switched to Heathrow. US-Amsterdam is traditionally a seasonal market with terrible yields, but perhaps NW carries a lot of Middle East traffic over AMS?

I don't know about DTW-LHR for O&D... in 2005 BA downgraded DTW from a 777 to a 767. However, I don't know what led to that. Relying on connecting traffic I'm sure it'll do fine. I think AMS is pretty strong. They have added another frequency within the past couple of months.

As far as Mid-east traffic, I've been hoping that MEA joins Skyteam for a codeshare and either gets permission for a BEY-DTW route or gets NW to do it. The alternative [rumor] that I heard was that NW was looking to start up DTW-SDA, which had potential a few years ago with the huge Chaldean/Iraqi presence in Detroit. However, I don't think we need to discuss the unlikelihood of that option now.

If we bring AA into the picture we also bring in OneWorld. DTW already has RJ doing DTW-AMM I believe 2x weekly still. Perhaps a merger would give a codeshared daily route.
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
rampart
Posts: 1798
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 5:58 am

RE: NW Merger/Acquisition Talk

Fri Dec 15, 2006 3:06 am

Quoting NW748i (Reply 38):
Did ABC give any specifics?

No, unfortunately, it was a brief mention and haven't seen anything since. Anyone else heard anything more concrete that what we're speculating here?

-Rampart

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