aaden
Posts: 774
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 9:49 am

What Will AA DL Aand NW Do If The UA/CO Combine?

Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:37 pm

I was wondering just what how these carriers will respond if the UA/CO merger happens?

AA isn't seeking a merger, should they not be worried about there new and stronger competitior in texas. Also in chicago, New york and lax?


DL and NW arn't in the condition to merge. what will they do? they seem to be the weakest carriers at this time.
 
USAirPlatinum
Posts: 242
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:12 pm

RE: What Will AA DL Aand NW Do If The UA/CO Combine?

Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:42 pm

If UA and CO combine, the Delta creditors will send Grinstein back to Tempe with his hat in his hand to hammer out a deal, as Delta will be even harder pressed to survive as a weak, heavily indebted "independent" carrier.

NWA will be forced to combine with AA and shift the Asia/Pacific flying to ORD and away from DTW and MSP. I expect DTW will lose some significant flying as a result. STL will also probably get cut even further due to overlap with ORD and Memphis. AA will emerge the strongest combined carrier at the end of all of it, IMO.
"Hey guys, Delta is OUR Delta right now." -- Unpaid Creditors
 
UAXDXer
Posts: 700
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 3:36 pm

RE: What Will AA DL Aand NW Do If The UA/CO Combine?

Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:52 pm

Quoting USAirPlatinum (Reply 1):
NWA will be forced to combine with AA and shift the Asia/Pacific flying to ORD and away from DTW and MSP

ORD cannot handle any additional traffic.
It takes a bug to hit a windsheild but it takes guts to stick
 
MAH4546
Posts: 24522
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

RE: What Will AA DL Aand NW Do If The UA/CO Combine?

Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:54 pm

Quoting USAirPlatinum (Reply 1):
STL will also probably get cut even further due to overlap with ORD and Memphis

St. Louis is a far stronger market than Memphis. Memphis would probably suffer at the expense of St. Louis at first, but in the long run, I could imagine any AA/NW merger elimating both.
a.
 
USAirPlatinum
Posts: 242
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 10:12 pm

RE: What Will AA DL Aand NW Do If The UA/CO Combine?

Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:59 pm

ORD cannot handle additional traffic is often claimed, but I would guess it could handle a small bump, and AA will bump RJ flights to Tulsa to slot in NWA's A-Pac flights should NWA become part of AA. They'll launch an all-out effort to compete with United on high-yield routes out of ORD and won't let slot restrictions get in the way.

STL might be a strong O&D market, but it also has a major presence with SWA in town. I'd bet AA will weigh its options and cut at STL first.
"Hey guys, Delta is OUR Delta right now." -- Unpaid Creditors
 
panamair
Posts: 3759
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

RE: What Will AA DL Aand NW Do If The UA/CO Combine?

Mon Dec 18, 2006 6:30 pm

UA and CO will only proceed with more serious merger talks if the US-DL deal comes to fruition. CO has expressed over and over and over again that it does not want to wheel-and-deal and will only do so as a last resort (i.e., if there is industry consolidation). Hence, look for Kellner to throw Tilton's number away if the US-DL bid falls apart. Basically, no one wants to engage in a merger except for UA's Tilton and US' Parker. Maybe the two should go talk to each other instead if they are so hellbent on wheeling-and-dealing...

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