UAEflyer
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EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Mon Dec 25, 2006 1:42 pm

Emirates Chairman Shk. Ahmad bin Saeed, said that they are waiting for an answer from Airbus & Boeing on their request to re-design their new aircrafts.

He also said we will take money from Airbus due to the A380 delay, "we forced Airbus to accept our auditors, they will give us the delivery time not Airbus" Shk. Ahmad said.

"Our decision in not joining any alliance 10 years ago was right, because being in an alliance will not give us the chance to expand as we are currently"

The last question was about if EK will allow smoking in their flights, he said never.

The interview in Arabic
http://www.albayan.ae/servlet/Satell...ame=Albayan%2FArticle%2FFullDetail
 
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N328KF
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:55 pm

"Re-design their new crafts?" What? We know about this A350, but what exactly does he have in mind about the Boeing offerings?
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
jimyvr
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Mon Dec 25, 2006 4:05 pm

They want Boeing to re-design the 747-8I and 787-10, I guess.
1000 - 01MAR07 | http://airlineroute.blogspot.com/
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Mon Dec 25, 2006 4:06 pm

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
"Our decision in not joining any alliance 10 years ago was right, because being in an alliance will not give us the chance to expand as we are currently"

Yeah, why cooperate when you can divide and conquer on your own? EK is nothing new, this is just the WN strategy with a UAE-remix.

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
The last question was about if EK will allow smoking in their flights, he said never.



Terrible habit that is incredibly rude to practice in a confined space with already poor air quality.

On that one.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 1):
"Re-design their new crafts?" What? We know about this A350, but what exactly does he have in mind about the Boeing offerings?

I suspect EK is waiting for Boeing and/or Airbus to increase the payload and range capabilities before committing to either the A350-900 or 787-10. Ditto for the 747-8I: EK wants range, but LH was willing to put down money for seats. History has shown that Boeing can squeek out range, so we may yet see EK interested in the 747-8I as presently sized.

Interestingly enough, EK has just about pushed both Airbus and Boeing into early replacement of an entire generation of aircraft. It's clear that Boeing has now moved past their hesitation to push the 777-200/ER aside with the 787-10.

I think we will see EK make their move sooner than later, perhaps before June/July 2007. They do love air show announcements.

[Edited 2006-12-25 08:08:39]
 
MCOflyer
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 2:05 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 3):
I think we will see EK make their move sooner than later, perhaps before June/July 2007. They do love air show announcements.

Agreed. They need to gets delievery slots for the aircraft they're ordering.

MCOflyer
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zvezda
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 2:10 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 3):
I think we will see EK make their move sooner than later, perhaps before June/July 2007. They do love air show announcements.

There is nothing keeping EK from ordering now and embargoing the announcment until the airshow.

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 3):
EK has just about pushed both Airbus and Boeing into early replacement of an entire generation of aircraft. It's clear that Boeing has now moved past their hesitation to push the 777-200/ER aside with the 787-10.

It will be interesting to see whether or not EK can push Boeing into offering a B787-11 someday.
 
CRJ900X
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 2:13 am

With an order for 100 aircraft, would EK split a purchase for both the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350?
 
atmx2000
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 2:20 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 3):
I suspect EK is waiting for Boeing and/or Airbus to increase the payload and range capabilities before committing to either the A350-900 or 787-10. Ditto for the 747-8I: EK wants range, but LH was willing to put down money for seats. History has shown that Boeing can squeek out range, so we may yet see EK interested in the 747-8I as presently sized.

I'm not sure what they want from the A350-900 in terms of payload/range if Airbus's specifications are accurate.

Quoting CRJ900X (Reply 6):
With an order for 100 aircraft, would EK split a purchase for both the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350?

I think this is a strong possibility.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 5):
There is nothing keeping EK from ordering now and embargoing the announcment until the airshow.

Maybe they are waiting to see results from the 787 test program. Why make a decision for an aircraft that won't be available until 2013, 6 years in advance, when one is close to gaining additional data to evaluate one of the potential choices.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
zvezda
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 2:25 am

Quoting CRJ900X (Reply 6):
With an order for 100 aircraft, would EK split a purchase for both the Boeing 787 and the Airbus A350?

It's a possibility.

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 7):
Maybe they are waiting to see results from the 787 test program. Why make a decision for an aircraft that won't be available until 2013, 6 years in advance, when one is close to gaining additional data to evaluate one of the potential choices.

The way slots are going, waiting six months means taking delivery a year later.
 
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Plane Holland
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 2:35 am

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
"Our decision in not joining any alliance 10 years ago was right, because being in an alliance will not give us the chance to expand as we are currently"

2nd that !!
 
atmx2000
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 2:49 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 8):
The way slots are going, waiting six months means taking delivery a year later.

I doubt that slots in 2013 time frame are going all that quickly. Boeing has been able to sell 4 years of production out.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
kaitak
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 2:50 am

I still think a joint 747-8I (pax) and 787-10 order is a strong possibility, but EK seems to be moving the goalposts constantly. I think an A350-1000 launch order is likely, IF Emirates goes for the A350, but of course, the big concern for EK is whether Airbus will be able to deliver the goods.

Another question: any more on the proposal to acquire newer A330s to replace older ones in the fleet and might these be A330-343Es, rather than -243s?
 
zvezda
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 2:52 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 10):
I doubt that slots in 2013 time frame are going all that quickly.

Actually, the 2013 slots are going quickly. Many of the 2014 slots are already gone.
 
FCKC
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 3:44 am

Can we expect a decision at the Paris Air Show in June ?
 
zvezda
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 4:01 am

Quoting FCKC (Reply 13):
Can we expect a decision at the Paris Air Show in June ?

If I had to guess, I would say the decision will be made earlier, but the announcement might be held until the airshow. Note that EK plan to take delivery of many new airliners (not yet on order) before the A350 or B787 would be available. The B777-300ER and B747-8I SuperJumbo seem to be the most likely choices.
 
CO738
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 5:22 am

To be honest i think he is a little full of himself, besides all this waiting is goin to hurt them more than it will hurt both manufaturers. For every day the board and himself wait, every time slot will be takin and they are screwed
If only you could install an air horn on a plane...
 
kaitak
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 5:28 am

Quoting CO738 (Reply 15):
To be honest i think he is a little full of himself, besides all this waiting is goin to hurt them more than it will hurt both manufaturers. For every day the board and himself wait, every time slot will be takin and they are screwed

I don't think EK would ever be "screwed"; an airline that has consistently been the highest spending of all airlines since 2001 is not going to be screwed by either manufacturer. In any case, the aircraft which EK wants - the 787-10 or A350 won't be entering service until around 2012/13 (787) or 2014; if EK decides on the 787-10, Boeing will bend over backwards and the delivery dates will figure in those negotiations; with around seven years to go, Boeing has plenty of time to ramp up production and in any case, the 767 production will have long since ceased and the arrival of the 787-10 will probably see 777 production slowing down, so Boeing will probably have the capacity to increase production.

It's the smaller airlines that dither which concern me. I wouldn't lose any sleep over EK, because the prospect of a $10bn order can certainly bend a few ears!
 
dutchjet
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 5:41 am

First its 50 midsize aircraft in the 787/A350 category, now its 100 new aircraft which I assume is in addition to EK's exisitng A380 order, 748F order and 773ER order.....its all a bit overwhelming, even if EK plans to replace its current A332s/A343s and 772A fleet with new airplanes. You can be certain that Boeing and Airbus are listening........the question is when will EK make its move?

The use of the word ""redesign"" is probably not a totally accurate translation....EK is likely waiting to get details/dates on variants of the A350XWB family from Airbus and to get details/time frame on the 787-10 from Boeing. In either case, EK will be a launch customer. It will be interesting to see if a 748I order is included in the mix: EK was more interested in the shorter version of the 748I which has a bit more range that the proposal launched by LH (with more seats and the same fuselage length as the 748F).....although there are some reports saying that Boeing would not have a huge problem offering the 748I in both fuselage lengths.

With EK cancelling its A346 commitments (or whatever exactly is going on there....but the result is that EK will not be taking delivery of 20 A346s) and the delays in the A380 program and this long drawn-out drama concerning EK's decision between the 787 and A350, EK must be falling behind on its huge expansion plans. Time is becoming of the essence.
 
eraugrad02
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 5:59 am

I know this has been brought up before but IF they ordered enough, would boeing sell them the original 747adv as a -700? Or could boeing be working to get more range out out the now almost locked model?
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Stitch
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 6:05 am

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 18):
I know this has been brought up before but IF they ordered enough, would boeing sell them the original 747adv as a -700? Or could Boeing be working to get more range out out the now almost locked model?

I guess it depends on how hard it is to add another 300-500nm worth of fuel tankage to the current 747-8I. EK seems to favor "high density" configs for their long-haul craft, so I imagine they honestly prefer the current "stretch" 748I, but want some extra range on top of that to allow them to use it on whatever long-haul missions they want.
 
kaitak
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 6:06 am

I don't know; they have not ruled out building both models (and EK is apparently not the only one interested), BUT in the entire scheme of things, the nomenclature is down the list! Once they decide to build both, they can work out how to address that.

I'd say that they would probably call it the -800LR, rather than the -700, but your guess is as good as mine!
 
zvezda
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 6:06 am

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 18):
I know this has been brought up before but IF they ordered enough, would boeing sell them the original 747adv as a -700?

Unless EK want to buy 100 of them, they won't get a really big discount on a custom length. It's all about price. For full list, Boeing would probably make as few as 5.

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 18):
Or could boeing be working to get more range out out the now almost locked model?

They always do.
 
dutchjet
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 6:08 am

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 18):
would boeing sell them the original 747adv as a -700?

Reports are that Boeing would and could......the differences between the shorter and longer 748I proposals are basically limited to one fuselage plug. Would the shorter version be called the 747-700 and the larger the 747-800I....thats not yet clear.

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 18):
Or could boeing be working to get more range out out the now almost locked model?

Anything is possible and Boeing does seem to have the ability to squeeze extra range out of its airplanes, but EK seemed pretty focused on the shorter 748I.......it was good trade-off between seats and range for EK's needs as well as being a good airplane to split the difference between the 773s and A380s. If any of this happens and EK really wants 748Is, my bet is that Boeing will build the shorter variant for EK.
 
tayaramecanici
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 7:17 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 17):
With EK cancelling its A346 commitments (or whatever exactly is going on there....but the result is that EK will not be taking delivery of 20 A346s) and the delays in the A380 program and this long drawn-out drama concerning EK's decision between the 787 and A350, EK must be falling behind on its huge expansion plans. Time is becoming of the essence.

couldn't agree more, and strategically speaking the external factors affecting EK seem to be getting worse everyday.
1)Iran.
2)Falling $, the UAE dirham is locked to the $ causing wage inflation apart from lowering yield.
3)Increasing competition on the milk runs, especially Indian subcontinent not to mention QR & EY.

IMO a strong message of support in favour of EK's growth story would have been placing a large order of A332s as interim lift for the compensation amount. Encashment is evidence of more difficult underlying circumstances, the cash will help tide over these diff days. Though it will be nice to know the value of todays $ corrected to 2001 the year of the orders, what i am looking for, is the compensation amount $ if encashed today will be far less than what was payed in 2001 ? If u know what i mean.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
jacobin777
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 9:31 am

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 23):
1)Iran.

What threat does/would Iran cause?

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 23):
2)Falling $, the UAE dirham is locked to the $ causing wage inflation apart from lowering yield.

Wage inflation hasn't been too much of a problem in the Emirates...

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 23):
3)Increasing competition on the milk runs, especially Indian subcontinent not to mention QR & EY.

Growth rates are still increasing, so even with QR and EY competing on the "milk runs", EK is not having a problem with pax/cargo..

EK's more important routes are Australia and the United Kingdom..not the Indian/Pakistan subcontinent..those are lower yielding flights...

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 23):
IMO a strong message of support in favour of EK's growth story would have been placing a large order of A332s as interim lift for the compensation amount. Encashment is evidence of more difficult underlying circumstances, the cash will help tide over these diff days. Though it will be nice to know the value of todays $ corrected to 2001 the year of the orders, what i am looking for, is the compensation amount $ if encashed today will be far less than what was payed in 2001 ? If u know what i mean.

Given the whole A380 imbroglio, if EK wanted to cancel their planes, I'm sure they could have. Also, EK isn't receiving all their A380's at one time. Who's to say the won't lease some of them out?
"Up the Irons!"
 
CO738
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 12:25 pm

If i would have known this i would have went out to the toy store and bought 100 new matchbox airplanes put the EK logo on them and sent them to EK for Christmas and then send him a bill for it  Smile
If only you could install an air horn on a plane...
 
2wingtips
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 12:36 pm

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 17):
First its 50 midsize aircraft in the 787/A350 category, now its 100 new aircraft which I assume is in addition to EK's exisitng A380 order, 748F order and 773ER order.

I think it's pretty much 100 aircraft in the 787/350 category. What was going to be a 50+50 order/option strategy likely from one OEM, now looks like to be 100 firm and I think a split order is looking more likely by the day. They won't order 100 350s and put all their eggs in that basket. It's too risky. They may put all their eggs in the 787 basket, but I'm predicting a split favouring Boeing around 70:30.
What is unclear to me is whether the 748I is included in this 100 plane order?
 
USAirPlatinum
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 12:38 pm

What's this nonsense about "alliances would prevent us from expanding flying?" Are BA and AA constraining international growth? Has Delta stopped flying out of JFK in order to accommodate CO at EWR? Has US Airways decided to kill its transcons to the west coast because of the UA hubs at SFO and LAX? Have Thai and Singapore stopped competing with each other on connecting traffic throughout Southeast Asia?

All not participating in an alliance does is ensure that certain customers (like myself) are less likely to fly Emirates than BA or LH. No qualifying alliance mileage on Star or OneWorld for me = I'll choose the competitor with a similar price who is an alliance member first.
"Hey guys, Delta is OUR Delta right now." -- Unpaid Creditors
 
777ER
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 1:10 pm

Quoting UAEflyer (Thread starter):
"Our decision in not joining any alliance 10 years ago was right, because being in an alliance will not give us the chance to expand as we are currently"



Quoting USAirPlatinum (Reply 27):
"Our decision in not joining any alliance 10 years ago was right, because being in an alliance will not give us the chance to expand as we are currently"

Exactly what alliance members fly on routes that EK operate from DXB? Being in an Alliance certainly helps with your routes. For instance NZ flying direct from BKK-LHR. Why fly on like SQ or LH on a connecting service from BKK to LHR when you can fly direct to LHR on NZ.
 
UAEflyer
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 1:27 pm

If you know the Emirates story it is normal to be shocked with all of this expansions.
But in today's world nothing impossible, they are doing fine and their profit is raising and their operation is excellent. So why not to order a new aircrafts, from the interview i noticed that EK will replace all of it A330s and old 777s at once, dont you think the 100 aircraft is logic to do so.
Furthermore they are willing to buy whatever available to expand all over. Emirates customers are all over, they have an excellent connections through DXB, even better than the alliance.

sooner or later Emirates will lead the aviation industry for a limited time and i say here for couple of years then they will fall as they rose.
 
Ken777
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 1:57 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
I guess it depends on how hard it is to add another 300-500nm worth of fuel tankage to the current 747-8I.

If EK is looking at the 748i to have an additional 300-500 nm it might be in their interests to see how the current 748i range would be extended if EK used a lighter payload - specifically the pax count and freight limits that they would use on the shorter version. that lighter payload (including fewer installed seats) would make it easier for Boeing to find that additional range. It also provides EK with a plane that can be upgraded very cheaply (by adding additional seats) later on if they decide it is in their interests to do so.

Basically EK would be getting long term flexibility and would be avoiding the costs of developing the shorter version. They would also be able to get the planes sooner - probably another desirable benefit.
 
tayaramecanici
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 7:29 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 24):
What threat does/would Iran cause?

Increase in insurance premiums, besides the stories in local gulf dailies talking to collegues here in U.K. people are expressing fears of travelling via or to DXB. Not to mention flight of manpower as highly skilled pros prefer to move their families out of a zone with high threat perseptions, here the core workforce i.e. Pilots, Engineers and cabin crew recruitments reflect the effects of this threat.


Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 24):
Wage inflation hasn't been too much of a problem in the Emirates...

You will be surprised at the number of grade improvements that have taken place in EK across whole sections of workforce. As a fellow worker i am extremely pleased at this, however knowing the past where it was a norm to be in aparticular grade for a minimum of 3yrs unless exceptionally brilliant, across the board promotions are an indication of a large windfall or desperate times to retain core staff.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 24):
Growth rates are still increasing, so even with QR and EY competing on the "milk runs", EK is not having a problem with pax/cargo..

You can't discount the effects of these 2 on EK. They are courting the same set of pax and manpower, wherein you have yield falls in revenue and cost increases due to wage inflation. EY workforce is atleast 25% ex-EK.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 24):
EK's more important routes are Australia and the United Kingdom..not the Indian/Pakistan subcontinent..those are lower yielding flights

I don't have data available off-hand but promise to get back soon, the sub-continent constitutes over 30% of EK capacity. The higest for any one sector.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Tue Dec 26, 2006 10:52 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 30):
If EK is looking at the 748i to have an additional 300-500 nm it might be in their interests to see how the current 748i range would be extended if EK used a lighter payload - specifically the pax count and freight limits that they would use on the shorter version.

Trick is that would raise the CASM and that might sour EK on the economics of the deal. Now, if EK wanted to put an A345-style cabin into the plane and use a less-luxurious, higher-density 77W-style cabin on the A388, that could work, but it would force EK to use the 748 on the Kangaroo Route to compete with the new QF and SQ A388 cabins. Conversely, EK could fit a limited number of their A388s with the "latest and greatest" to directly fight their competitors on A388-centric routes and use the "748 Luxury Edition" against competitor's 77Ws and A346s or where there is no competition but they need more range then their 77W fleet can service.
 
zvezda
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Wed Dec 27, 2006 12:55 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
Trick is that would raise the CASM and that might sour EK on the economics of the deal. Now, if EK wanted to put an A345-style cabin into the plane and use a less-luxurious, higher-density 77W-style cabin on the A388, that could work, but it would force EK to use the 748 on the Kangaroo Route to compete with the new QF and SQ A388 cabins. Conversely, EK could fit a limited number of their A388s with the "latest and greatest" to directly fight their competitors on A388-centric routes and use the "748 Luxury Edition" against competitor's 77Ws and A346s or where there is no competition but they need more range then their 77W fleet can service.

If someone decides to use the B747-8I SuperJumbo to compete directly against the WhaleJet on the same route, then the former will have lower CASM (due to SFC and structural efficiency) and higher RASM (due to fewer seats). More profit and less risk per seat is good, but the WhaleJet operator might still make some profit per seat, which would be multiplied by the volume.
 
jacobin777
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Wed Dec 27, 2006 1:12 am

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 31):
Increase in insurance premiums, besides the stories in local gulf dailies talking to collegues here in U.K. people are expressing fears of travelling via or to DXB. Not to mention flight of manpower as highly skilled pros prefer to move their families out of a zone with high threat perseptions, here the core workforce i.e. Pilots, Engineers and cabin crew recruitments reflect the effects of this threat.

Growth rates are rising..and after New York, Dubai has the 2nd most pax flown to London...which took me by surprise...indication that the market might be very healthy and there is a strong base of pax (Chicago-London is 3rd by the way).

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 31):
You will be surprised at the number of grade improvements that have taken place in EK across whole sections of workforce. As a fellow worker i am extremely pleased at this, however knowing the past where it was a norm to be in aparticular grade for a minimum of 3yrs unless exceptionally brilliant, across the board promotions are an indication of a large windfall or desperate times to retain core staff.

I'm please to hear this too..but we both know the majority of the labour pool is low-income workers from the Indian/Paksitan subcontinent... Sad

While I'm not arguing that wage inflation might be a problem later on, I don't think it is a top problem in the Emirates right now. More than enough people want to live/work in the Emirates...

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 31):

I don't have data available off-hand but promise to get back soon, the sub-continent constitutes over 30% of EK capacity. The higest for any one sector.

I'm not arguing with you on that...as you are probably correct on that point...its the yields I'm talking about..I have already stated that Dubai-India/Pakistan is low yield.... Wink

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 31):

You can't discount the effects of these 2 on EK. They are courting the same set of pax and manpower, wherein you have yield falls in revenue and cost increases due to wage inflation. EY workforce is atleast 25% ex-EK.

I'm not discounting them.....but EK is still the dominant carrier.

I equate it to New York-London...there are no less than 7-8 carriers which fly on that route, but I consider BA to be the dominant carrier (followed by AA then VS).....given the potential pax base EY,EK, QR have..I think there is room for everyone. Also, there carriers are not taking pax from each other, they are taking pax from other carriers...and that is why SQ's Chew stated that his biggest concern is EK....not other carriers.

My point is that as of this moment, growth rate is phenomenal..take advantage of it. Once things slow down, then deal with the situation..its not as if EK is a carrier with financial difficulties....

Cheers..
"Up the Irons!"
 
tayaramecanici
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Wed Dec 27, 2006 3:49 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 34):
Growth rates are rising..and after New York, Dubai has the 2nd most pax flown to London...which took me by surprise...indication that the market might be very healthy and there is a strong base of pax (Chicago-London is 3rd by the way).

Figures can be skewed to the benefit of a particular entity. IMO london should always be limited to LHR not include LGW, STN & LTN, additionally ex-LHR destinations give a more accurate projection of ground reality vis-vis real time O&D demand and growth, apart from yields. LHR-BOM has 78522944 ASM against 75300056 ASMs on LHR-DXB, BOM is the higgest growth dest after JFK out of LHR. Unfortunately for EK and DXB most of these pax are connecting onwards and not terminating pax. This weakness has been exploited time and again by many carriers, classic example is AI. They have always started new routes after EK has managed to build critical mass, LHR-CCU is the latest. This year VS has started ops and BA has increased its to DXB indicating further hammering of yields.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 34):
While I'm not arguing that wage inflation might be a problem later on, I don't think it is a top problem in the Emirates right now. More than enough people want to live/work in the Emirates...

It is a huge burden on EK's cash flow. Bear in mind apart from wages EK has to provide all core staff with accomodation, house rents in DXB are rising faster than EK's revenue. Undoubtedly the whole of pak, bangladesh, srilanka and Africa would like to live and work in dubai but then only the appropriately skilled among this lot are fortunate to do so. As far as EK's recruitment policy goes they have been seeking core staff from the developed world only.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 34):
I'm not arguing with you on that...as you are probably correct on that point...its the yields I'm talking about..I have already stated that Dubai-India/Pakistan is low yield....

I keep repeating this, its only on the DXB-Indian sub-continent sector that EK is a price leader. Every other sector their fares are lower than the competition. The poor low income workers of the sub-continent are subsidising the long haul connectors thru DXB. If it hadn't been for PAK EK's flts to LGW, GLA, MAN & BHX will struggle for breakeven loads. EK has absolutely no competition on this sector, all the national carriers are also rans and survive only on whatever they can collect from the bottom of the barrel.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 34):
Once things slow down, then deal with the situation..its not as if EK is a carrier with financial difficulties....

Well the jury is out on this in abscence of a more open society and transparent financial accounting we will never know. One can only extrapolate from various events like deffering an order for Interim Lift, Cancelling further airport expansion plans and reducing fleet utilisation, to a cynic like myself these are early warnings of belt tightening.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
PlaneHunter
Posts: 6512
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:17 am

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Wed Dec 27, 2006 4:03 am

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 35):
I keep repeating this, its only on the DXB-Indian sub-continent sector that EK is a price leader. Every other sector their fares are lower than the competition. The poor low income workers of the sub-continent are subsidising the long haul connectors thru DXB.

Hopefully EK will check a.net - maybe they will then actually do what you suggest and finally lower their fares for many Asian destinations from Germany...

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 35):
One can only extrapolate from various events like deffering an order for Interim Lift, Cancelling further airport expansion plans and reducing fleet utilisation

Sources?


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
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RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Wed Dec 27, 2006 4:19 am

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 35):
Figures can be skewed to the benefit of a particular entity. IMO london should always be limited to LHR not include LGW, STN & LTN, additionally ex-LHR destinations give a more accurate projection of ground reality vis-vis real time O&D demand and growth, apart from yields. LHR-BOM has 78522944 ASM against 75300056 ASMs on LHR-DXB, BOM is the higgest growth dest after JFK out of LHR.

I respectfully disagree there.....If there weren't 7-8 carriers on the New York-London route, carriers such as BA and AA would have a field day charging pax..but because other carriers offer flights out of EWR to LGW, STN, etc...they can't....When I used to fly New York-London, my travel agent didn't only say JFK-LHR....New York-London to me represents an entire catchment area....

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 35):
Unfortunately for EK and DXB most of these pax are connecting onwards and not terminating pax. This weakness has been exploited time and again by many carriers, classic example is AI. They have always started new routes after EK has managed to build critical mass, LHR-CCU is the latest. This year VS has started ops and BA has increased its to DXB indicating further hammering of yields.

It doesn't matter to EK if they are either terminating or connecting pax...they want bums on their seats..be it JFK-DXB or JFK-DXB-KHI....

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 35):
Bear in mind apart from wages EK has to provide all core staff with accomodation, house rents in DXB are rising faster than EK's revenue.

That could be a potential source of contention..but EK's growth rate as well as revenue/earnings rate should keep things intact...for now at least..

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 35):
I keep repeating this, its only on the DXB-Indian sub-continent sector that EK is a price leader.

I completely disagree....in fact, I speak from experience as I fly DXB-Indian subcontinent every year for years..sometimes multiple times/year..in fact, I'm flying DXB-KHI this week.. biggrin .

Their fares are quite competitive to PK's (now compared to Pakistani LCC ED, no..but ED fly only 1x/daily with an A320 where as EK fly 4x/daily)...but overall, PK has very competitive fares from DXB-India...in fact, that is one of the reasons as to why EK are going to have some of their A380s fitted with 600+ seats..its for these routes....

Also, EK fits their 773ER as 2-classes on some of these routes, which indicates they are lower-yielding seats.

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 35):
Every other sector their fares are lower than the competition.

Again, this is not true...I'm flying with BA this week and they were cheaper than EK on every level (1st, business, and cattle) on all three BA flights.

on a side note.....I'm flying BA to DXB because I'm basically a OneWorld flyer.. Wink

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 35):
The poor low income workers of the sub-continent are subsidising the long haul connectors thru DXB.

That wouldn't make sense according to my arguments (but it would with yours)...its the better yields and higher paying customers on different routes which subsidises the lower yield/profit flights....

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 35):
Well the jury is out on this in abscence of a more open society and transparent financial accounting we will never know. One can only extrapolate from various events like deffering an order for Interim Lift, Cancelling further airport expansion plans and reducing fleet utilisation, to a cynic like myself these are early warnings of belt tightening.

EK has transparent accounting with their auditors....does the govt. help them?....In no uncertain terms, I would say so ...so they aren't completely a "neutral" company..but at the end of the day....EK fills bums in seats and makes money...

Don't forget, the Emirates Group (of which EK is a part of) is huge.

Cheers..
"Up the Irons!"
 
777FlyGuy
Posts: 139
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2006 12:29 am

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Wed Dec 27, 2006 5:23 am

Quoting UAEflyer (Reply 29):
sooner or later Emirates will lead the aviation industry for a limited time and i say here for couple of years then they will fall as they rose.

Makes perfect sense. Sooner or later, there is going to be a capacity glut. Some analysts are saying it's already happening among middle east carriers. I've no doubt EK's ambitions are to be the world's largest carrier, but if/when the market falls out, they're going to be parking a lot of planes, just like everyone else.
 
BigTom
Posts: 516
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2006 6:51 pm

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Wed Dec 27, 2006 5:02 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 37):

I completely disagree....in fact, I speak from experience as I fly DXB-Indian subcontinent every year for years..sometimes multiple times/year..in fact, I'm flying DXB-KHI this week.. biggrin .

Well it may be true on the UAE-Pak routes that EK is competitive, but it is definitely the price leader on India and Sri Lanka routes. They are the dominant carrier on these routes though as the competition generally relies on those who want to fly the cheaper option.
Cheers
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Wed Dec 27, 2006 8:41 pm

Quoting BigTom (Reply 39):
Well it may be true on the UAE-Pak routes that EK is competitive, but it is definitely the price leader on India and Sri Lanka routes. They are the dominant carrier on these routes though as the competition generally relies on those who want to fly the cheaper option.

How much competition do they have right now on the DXB-India routes? I checked to how many Indian Carriers fly to DXB....neither IT, IC, SG, 9W, etc. fly to DXB..the only one I've been able to find is AI and EK.

EK owns a large stake in Sri Lankan Airlines also. Once some of the other Indian Carriers fly to Dubai....yields will start going down. Its just a matter of time.
"Up the Irons!"
 
BigTom
Posts: 516
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2006 6:51 pm

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Wed Dec 27, 2006 11:23 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 40):
How much competition do they have right now on the DXB-India routes? I checked to how many Indian Carriers fly to DXB....neither IT, IC, SG, 9W, etc. fly to DXB..the only one I've been able to find is AI and EK.

EK owns a large stake in Sri Lankan Airlines also. Once some of the other Indian Carriers fly to Dubai....yields will start going down. Its just a matter of time.

Apart from EK and AI, IC, AIX, CX and BG (DXB-BOM) also fly directly from DXB-India routes and EY and Air Arabia fly out of Abu Dhabi and Sharjah. Add to that QR, Oman Air and GF who offer connections with quick transits through their hubs in DOH, MCT and BAH, all of whom are generally cheaper than EK. Indian private carriers like 9W, IT, SG and S2 have not yet been allowed to fly Gulf - India routes (though that is expected to change soon). EK does hole a large stake in Sri Lankan but flights on DXB-CMB by EK are more expensive.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Thu Dec 28, 2006 12:55 am

Quoting BigTom (Reply 41):
Apart from EK and AI, IC, AIX, CX and BG (DXB-BOM) also fly directly from DXB-India routes and EY and Air Arabia fly out of Abu Dhabi and Sharjah. Add to that QR, Oman Air and GF who offer connections with quick transits through their hubs in DOH, MCT and BAH, all of whom are generally cheaper than EK. Indian private carriers like 9W, IT, SG and S2 have not yet been allowed to fly Gulf - India routes (though that is expected to change soon). EK does hole a large stake in Sri Lankan but flights on DXB-CMB by EK are more expensive.

Again, there is not competition on the various cities to DXB from most Indian carriers..of course EK can charge what they want. None of the carriers you mentioned such as CX, EY, Air Arabia are not direct competitors... no 

I want to see what happens when 9W, IT, CX, AI, etc. all compete from DEL/BOM/CCU/BLR-DXB.....fares will go down...period.
"Up the Irons!"
 
tayaramecanici
Posts: 241
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:03 am

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Thu Dec 28, 2006 7:21 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 36):
Hopefully EK will check a.net - maybe they will then actually do what you suggest and finally lower their fares for many Asian destinations from Germany...

Thanks for substantiating my statement. A visit to the EK website will clear all doubts.
EK FRA - MAA (Friday in MAr'07) Price= 900euros.
EK FRA - MEL ( Same day ) Price = 1200euros.
LH FRA - MAA ( -same-) Price = 800euros
LH FRA - MEL ( - Same - ) Price = 3200euros
EK LHR - MAA/MEL
BA LHR - MAA/MEL same as above.
It is quite obvious that the DXB-INDIA sector is the milking run and contributes higher yields.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 36):
Sources?

Airport Expansion cancelled
Tourist arrivals reduced

Any more sources could cause acqute depression to the EKphiles. The fleet utilisation data is from the horses mouth i.e my ex-collegues from various depts within EK, you are free to discount this.


Jacobin777, you sound very affable like the most of the pak's i know, matey make up your mind is the Indian sub-continent higher yield or lower yield, you seem to vacillate depending on the audience, babey do nau mein pair maat rakh (pm to J777).
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
eraugrad02
Posts: 658
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 6:12 am

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Thu Dec 28, 2006 5:15 pm

If they had it their way. i bet they'd choose the shorter 747-adv which id say would have to be called the 747-7i and the 787-10.
Desmond MacRae in ILM
 
columba
Posts: 5043
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Thu Dec 28, 2006 5:57 pm

Quoting ERAUgrad02 (Reply 44):
If they had it their way. i bet they'd choose the shorter 747-adv which id say would have to be called the 747-7i and the 787-10.

If Boeing is willing to do launch this aircraft you maybe right but both aircraft are not even launched and of those two only the 787-10 seems likely.
I guess they will order the A350-900/-1000 both aircraft fit their needs perfect.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Fri Dec 29, 2006 1:51 am

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 43):
Jacobin777, you sound very affable like the most of the pak's i know, matey make up your mind is the Indian sub-continent higher yield or lower yield, you seem to vacillate depending on the audience, babey do nau mein pair maat rakh (pm to J777).

"babey do nau mein pair maat rakh"...I liked that one.. Smile

....array ji........when there is competion, there is low yields and when there isnt any competition the yields will be higher...that is econ.101.....but in general, the yields from the Indian subcontinent are lower than from other routes..

For example...DXB-KWI is a three class flight..offering 1st/business/cattle (indicating higher paying pax which usually = better yields)..but DXB-DEL is only a 2-class flight...business/cattle..indicating that these are low-yield flights....

Again, there is a reason why EK want to fly their A380's to Pakistan/India on a two-class plane...the yields are just not there.. no 

My other point is that there aren't any "subsidies" from the Indian subcontinent for other routes....

samaj main ayah?... Wink
"Up the Irons!"
 
tayaramecanici
Posts: 241
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:03 am

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Fri Dec 29, 2006 3:57 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 46):
DXB-DEL is only a 2-class flight...business/cattle..indicating that these are low-yield flights....

R U Sure, the EK schedule shows this as FJY777. All the major metros in India are served by 3 Class B777 (DELx7,MAAx5 & BLRx3) or A332 (CCUx6, HYDx7,BLRx4 & BOMx14). 2 Class B777 are operated during the peak seasons in addition to these flts and carry the 4digit flt Number.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.
 
PlaneHunter
Posts: 6512
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2006 3:17 am

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Fri Dec 29, 2006 7:51 am

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 35):
I keep repeating this, its only on the DXB-Indian sub-continent sector that EK is a price leader. Every other sector their fares are lower than the competition.



Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 43):
EK FRA - MAA (Friday in MAr'07) Price= 900euros.
EK FRA - MEL ( Same day ) Price = 1200euros.
LH FRA - MAA ( -same-) Price = 800euros
LH FRA - MEL ( - Same - ) Price = 3200euros
EK LHR - MAA/MEL
BA LHR - MAA/MEL same as above.
It is quite obvious that the DXB-INDIA sector is the milking run and contributes higher yields.

Just half an hour ago I have searched for the cheapest available flights to different Asian and ME destinations on different websites (including EK and other airline homepages), departure from FRA in March 07 (same day). Here's the result (in Euro):

BKK
EY: 625
EK: 699

DEL
GF: 651
EK: 626

DXB
AF: 452
EK: 587

HKG
BA: 600
EK: 700

KWI
GF: 525
EK: 621

MNL
GF: 746
EK: 765

PVG
BA: 572
EK: 693

SIN
UL: 646
EK: 735


So much for your general conclusion that EK fares are lower than the competition...

Quoting Tayaramecanici (Reply 43):
Any more sources could cause acqute depression to the EKphiles. The fleet utilisation data is from the horses mouth i.e my ex-collegues from various depts within EK, you are free to discount this.

From the first article:

The new airport in Jebel Ali will be 10 times the size of the existing Dubai airport and Dubai Cargo Village combined.

The $8.1-billion airport will have a capacity to handle 120 million passengers and 12 million tonnes of cargo annually.


Sounds like a huge growth potential for EK...

And Dubai not being able to handle 15 million tourists by 2010 won't be a nightmare to EK either. As for the fleet utilisation - there's more background information required to judge anything.

Some more of these sources?


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
tayaramecanici
Posts: 241
Joined: Sat Sep 09, 2006 5:03 am

RE: EK Chairman We Will Buy 100 Aircraft

Fri Dec 29, 2006 8:36 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 48):
From the first article:

The new airport in Jebel Ali will be 10 times the size of the existing Dubai airport and Dubai Cargo Village combined.

You are so predicatable PH, i knew you would quote these lines from the article however had you read the article closely you would have noticed this statement where they mention revisiting expansion at DXB "We are not sure about the other two terminals because of Jebel Ali. We will take a final decision after two years because until then we do not need the two terminals," Al Jallaf said. Let us see the completion of the 2nd concourse at DXB before the dubai govt is taken seriously about Jebel Ali, the very fact that an additional 2 cargo terminal capacity at DXB is available proves, the need for jebel ali is thus far. The projected drop in tourist arrivals and scrapping of the cargo village are direct links to EK's diminishing fortunes.

Regards your comparative table of fares from various websites, these are not indicative of seat available. Most websites display lower fares to lure. The figures i quoted were from the airline website itself and were for flts available to India vs another region, The flts were LH/BA direct to MAA, and one-stop to MEL. Whereas EK was more expensive to MAA inspite of the change of eqpt in DXB. You havent quoted a single non-stop flt vs via-DXB to India. It was a specific reply and not a generalisation.

'' The wisest of men cannot answer a ...........''.

All that i am trying to see in this whole debate on EK, is whether the airline has got a strong business model or is dependent on the failure of airlines in the Indian subcontinent. The rhetoric on how brilliant EK is can go on, in the abscence of democratic institutions in EK's homebase, We have to rely on freely available data to draw our conclusions.
''You are as good as your nearest competitor'' Bob Crandall.

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