NoWorries
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 1:06 pm

Hot off the presses -- haven't seen this is any other publication yet:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...nology/2003501594_webboeing29.html

Fair use excerpt:

Boeing sealed 110 of those orders in the last nine days, including a large order finalized Friday from Korean Air that pushed the total over the top.

[Edited 2006-12-30 05:10:36]
 
mymorningsong
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 1:09 pm

Just amazing, particularly after last year. Congrats to Boeing.
 
leelaw
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 1:13 pm

As reported by Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times in the linked article:

Quote:
Boeing spokesman Randy Harrison said, that with two days to go before year-end, the 2006 sales total stands at 1,014 net jet orders, compared to 1,002 net orders last year.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
JAAlbert
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 1:16 pm

wow! that is truly amazing. and lots of widebodies in the order book too. At the risk of having a tomato tossed my way . . . how did airbus do? I can never figure out its order book.
 
Cruiser
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 1:18 pm

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 3):
how did airbus do? I can never figure out its order book.

Airbus waited until aroun January 15th last year...we will likely have to wait just as long this year.
Leahy on Per Seat Costs: "Have you seen the B-2 fly-by at almost US$1bn a copy? It has only 2 seats!"
 
T773ER
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 1:38 pm

The title of the article says "2007 is record-breaking year for Boeing commercial jet orders", I thought we've been in 2006 all this time, how silly of me!
"Fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man."
 
Reggaebird
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 2:21 pm

Well, I completely expect Airbus to announce (around January 12th) that their sales total "is similar to Boeing's". I learned my lesson from last year! Nonetheless, Boeing's order value totals will far surpass Airbus as it did last year.
 
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N328KF
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 2:23 pm

When Hamlet69 releases his year-end summary, we should do a comparison by list price.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
airfrnt
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 2:36 pm

Astounding year after what we saw last year in the orders race. These orders really give Boeing a solid toe-hold for the next couple of years.
 
zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 6:01 pm

Look for Boeing to exceed Airbus in unit production during 2008. Why 2008? That's when B787 production will ramp up. Meanwhile, production of the B747, B767, and B777 will remain similar to now and B737 production will probably increase slightly.
 
slz396
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 6:24 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 9):
Look for Boeing to exceed Airbus in unit production during 2008. Why 2008? That's when B787 production will ramp up. Meanwhile, production of the B747, B767, and B777 will remain similar to now and B737 production will probably increase slightly.

Have we already heard from Boeing on what their planned annual production is going to be over the coming 5 years, because we sure have heard from A what they are planning to produce annually over the next 5 years and that was no small business!

If Boeing would be as open on this matter as Airbus and just gave us their planned production figures, we'd immediately know for sure if and when Boeing is going to overtake Airbus again in production...

With Airbus pumping up production of the A320 to close to 500 a year by the end of this decade, I don't think the 787 production numbers will be instrumental to helping Boeing overtake Airbus again... Whoever produces most of the most popular planes (i.e. the narrow bodies) is standing a very good chance of also being the biggest overall aircraft manufacturer in the world and for the foreseeable future this is going to be Airbus.
 
777ER
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 6:29 pm

WOW! I wonder how many of those orders are thanks to the B787. I would certainly love to know also how many widebody orders Airbus got over narrow body orders. WAY TO GO BOEING. Its time to pop those corks and party
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zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 6:30 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
With Airbus pumping up production of the A320 to close to 500 a year by the end of this decade, I don't think the 787 production numbers will be instrumental to helping Boeing overtake Airbus again... Whoever produces most of the most popular planes (i.e. the narrow bodies) is standing a very good chance of also being the biggest overall aircraft manufacturer in the world and for the foreseeable future this is going to be Airbus.

The order backlogs for the A320 and B737 are about the same size and orders are coming in at about the same rate, so production rates for these models must necessarily converge.
 
slz396
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 6:50 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 12):
The order backlogs for the A320 and B737 are about the same size and orders are coming in at about the same rate, so production rates for these models must necessarily converge.

Just looking at who is leading and who is following when it comes to 737/A320 production and sales numbers over a longer period of time, it is clear all trends you can read in the 737 figures are shown in the numbers of the A320 a few years earlier, with the 737 catching up when availability of the A320 becomes a problem, only to be be left behind again when more production capacity becomes available...

The fact Boeing once more hasn't decided to up 737 production by the same volume as Airbus on their A320, despite them having sold pretty similar numbers of their narrow body this year, clearly suggest Boeing still understands that when they loose the delivery time advantage which is now on their side, the 737 sales numbers can't keep pace with that of the A320....

Expect the sales and production gap between the A320 and the 737 to widen up again over the next years and I do not foresee such a considerable gap in narrow body production to be closed by wide body production for the simple fact wide bodies are produced in far smaller quantities...

[Edited 2006-12-30 10:54:22]
 
zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 7:08 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
Just looking at who is leading and who is following when it comes to 737/A320 production and sales numbers over a longer period of time, it is clear all trends you can read in the 737 figures are shown in the numbers of the A320 a few years earlier, with the 737 catching up when availability of the A320 becomes a problem, only to be be left behind again when more production capacity becomes available...

If that were true, the A320 backlog would stretch farther into the future than the B737 backlog, which is not the case.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
The fact Boeing once more hasn't decided to up 737 production by the same volume as Airbus on their A320, despite them having sold pretty similar numbers of their narrow body this year, clearly suggest Boeing still understands that when they loose the delivery time advantage which is now on their side, the 737 sales numbers can't keep pace with that of the A320....

No, it says that Boeing are more risk-averse and that they value profitability more than market share.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
Expect the sales and production gap between the A320 and the 737 to widen up again over the next years and I do not foresee such a considerable gap in narrow body production to be closed by wide body production for the simple fact wide bodies are produced in far smaller quantities...

At Airbus, yes, widebodies are produced in far smaller quantities. Expect widebody production at Boeing to exceed 250/year as the B787 ramps up.
 
NAV20
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 7:22 pm

Quite a feat by Boeing - I think even they, as well as most of us, expected demand to taper off this year. And they have the 'recovery phase' of the US airlines to look forward to too, presumably starting next year.

The astonishing thing, for me, is that the orders are spread right across their whole range. Even the 767 is still holding its own.

In business terms it means that they'll have a strong cash flow for at least the next six or seven years. Plenty of cash to finish 787 and 748 design/development, develop the 787 variants, produce a 737 replacement, and upgrade the 777 range.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
slz396
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 7:27 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 14):
If that were true, the A320 backlog would stretch farther into the future than the B737 backlog, which is not the case.

Your point actually proves some 737 customers want part of their order delivered later in time, making them generally less attractive 'long term slot filling' customers for any manufacturer and thus the most likely candidates to be bumbed first by Airbus when they can't accommodate ALL short term demands for A320s on their production line.

It couldn't be most of the 737 orders which are spun out far into the future have come on the books recently, can it?  scratchchin 

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 14):
it says that Boeing are more risk-averse and that they value profitability more than market share.

You really read reality according to the outcome you're after, don't you?

Wonder how you'll interpret a possible 787 production increase then....
Same situation, just the tables turned around.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 14):
At Airbus, yes, widebodies are produced in far smaller quantities.

At Boeing too.

Can't remember the year when Boeing ever produced more widebodies than narrowbodies.
 
zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 7:30 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 15):
In business terms it means that they'll have a strong cash flow for at least the next six or seven years. Plenty of cash to finish 787 and 748 design/development, develop the 787 variants, produce a 737 replacement, and upgrade the 777 range.

Upgrading the B777 to a level where it would be competitive with follow-on B787 models would be as expensive and as sensible as upgrading the B707 to be competitive with the B737NG. It's not going to happen. Anything that can be done with an updated B777 can be done at much lower operating cost and much lower development cost with an updated B787.
 
slz396
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 7:32 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 15):
I think even they, as well as most of us, expected demand to taper off this year.

Indeed, although it could also mean we are just going to have to get used to higher order number's on average... With aviation booming everywhere, annual order numbers must follow too at some stage.

Whereas 300 to 400 orders were a perfectly normal average a few years ago, it might just be double of that will soon become the new standard....
 
zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 7:39 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 16):
Your point actually proves some 737 customers want part of their order delivered later in time, making them generally less attractive 'long term slot filling' customers for any manufacturer and thus the most likely candidates to be bumbed first by Airbus when they can't accommodate ALL short term demands for A320s on their production line.

Care to show that?

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 16):
It couldn't be most of the 737 orders which are spun out far into the future have come on the books recently, can it?

That's about equally true for both the A320 and B737 models, which as I pointed out before, have similar backlogs and similar order levels.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 16):
You really read reality according to the outcome you're after, don't you?

You're the one trying to claim that an equal number of A320 orders is somehow better than an equal number of B737 orders.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 16):
Wonder how you'll interpret a possible 787 production increase then....
Same situation, just the tables turned around.

Compared to the length of the backlog and the rate at which B787 orders are coming in, I would say that Boeing have been conservative with their production rate plans.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 16):
Can't remember the year when Boeing ever produced more widebodies than narrowbodies.

No one ever suggested that was the case. The operative term we both used (you first) was "far smaller" not simply "smaller". A few years from now, widebodies production at Airbus may be 1/10th of single-aisle production. That is far smaller. At Boeing it may be 1/2, which is smaller, but not far smaller. In dollar terms, labour hours, sq meters of production space, etc. it will be greater.
 
columba
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 8:01 pm

Congratulations to Boeing. They had a terrific year and what I think really interesting is the number of Boeing aircraft being ordered from Germany this year.
Especially the huge number of 737s from Air Berlin and TUI.
These orders together with Lufthansa´s order for 747-8Is will assure that we will be able to spot the silhouette of classic Boeing aircraft at German airports for years to come.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
AirKorea
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:47 pm

Amazing!
With 1,014 net orders, Boeing Definitely beat Aribus in 2006.
Slim chance for Airbus to supass Boeing.
 
zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:30 pm

Quoting AirKorea (Reply 21):
With 1,014 net orders, Boeing Definitely beat Aribus in 2006.

Airbus conceded more than a month ago, but I still wouldn't say definitely. It's not too difficult to imagine a handful of airlines that could each order a hundred frames.

Quoting AirKorea (Reply 21):
Slim chance for Airbus to supass (sic) Boeing.

I agree that the chances are slim.
 
ual747-600
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:38 pm

Boeing had 904 net at the end of last week. Add 25 for KE and we're up to 929. 1014-929=85. Anybody care to speculate on who this might be?

I guess we'll find out next week who these are for.
 
zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:44 pm

Quoting UAL747-600 (Reply 23):
Boeing had 904 net at the end of last week. Add 25 for KE and we're up to 929. 1014-929=85. Anybody care to speculate on who this might be?

I guess we'll find out next week who these are for.

Maybe not. They may be booked next week as UFOs. Boeing won't announce until the customer is ready. If the customers had been ready, Randy Harrison probably would have named them when he spoke with the Seattle Times.
 
NAV20
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:47 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 17):
Anything that can be done with an updated B777 can be done at much lower operating cost and much lower development cost with an updated B787.

Maybe I should have said 'upgrade or replace' the 777, Zvezda.  Wink

A lot depends on what Airbus comes up with. Tbe 777 is not in any sense a truly 'modern' aeroplane, but it is a helluva performer and the larger versions are currently 'the only show in town.'

Airbus is going to have to come up with a very good A350XWB design to beat it. And at present Airbus are having trouble finding the money even to develop the XWB, leave alone make a world-beater out of it.

If Airbus fails to come up with a really good design, the larger 777s are likely to stay in business - on the basis of "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." There will be nothing else available in the same size range. My guess is that, for that reason, Boeing themselves have not made any firm decisions about the 777's likely future.

To me, the truly chilling paragraph in the subject article, from Airbus' point of view, is this one:-

"In addition, because Boeing's orders include a much bigger proportion of the expensive widebody jets, the value of its orders should be about 75 percent higher than the value of Airbus orders."

That spells it out. In money terms Boeing are very close to capturing two-thirds of the market. Given that they have a comprehensive range, and Airbus doesn't have anything of the sort, I expect them to achieve at least that proportion, and probably much more - maybe 75% of the market - in 2007.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
ual747-600
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:48 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 24):
Maybe not. They may be booked next week as UFOs. Boeing won't announce until the customer is ready. If the customers had been ready, Randy Harrison probably would have named them when he spoke with the Seattle Times.

Good point. It'll be interesting to see the breakdown of what was ordered.
 
zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 11:13 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 25):
Airbus is going to have to come up with a very good A350XWB design to beat [the B777]. And at present Airbus are having trouble finding the money even to develop the XWB, leave alone make a world-beater out of it.

It remains to be seen how competitive the A350 will be against the B787, but there can be no doubt, based on the preliminary specifications, that the A350 will handily beat the B777.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 25):
If Airbus fails to come up with a really good design, the larger 777s are likely to stay in business - on the basis of "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." There will be nothing else available in the same size range.

It's popular on A.net to believe that only airliners of very similar sizes compete with each other. This is a myth. The operating cost of the B787-10 will be so much lower than that of the B777-300ER, that for an airline to make more money operating the latter, the marginal seats beyond those which would fit in the former would have to be sold at fares above full Y. In other words, an airline would have to sell every seat on a B777-300ER above full Y. If passengers aren't willing to pay discounted business class fares (D/Z) to sit in Y seats, then there is more money to be made by operating a B787-10 instead and taking 90% as many passenger and probably 95% of the revenue (yes, in the real world that last 10% of seats brings in about 5% of the revenue) with only about 75% of the operating costs. There is no way that the last 10% of seats can bring in enough revenue to justify about 30% higher operating costs.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 25):
In money terms Boeing are very close to capturing two-thirds of the market. Given that they have a comprehensive range, and Airbus doesn't have anything of the sort,

What a classic example of tragedy! Airbus had a comprehensive range from the A318/319 through the A340-600. Then Airbus declared that wasn't enough, that they needed the WhaleJet to have a comprensive range exceeding that of Boeing. Now, as a direct consequence of the WhaleJet fiasco, Airbus no longer have a comprehensive range. Thanks to a decade of neglect, the only member of the Airbus product line that is selling well is the A320.
 
leelaw
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 11:25 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 27):
Thanks to a decade of neglect, the only member of the Airbus product line that is selling well is the A320.

What about the A330?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sat Dec 30, 2006 11:35 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 28):
What about the A330?

It's selling, but I wouldn't say it's selling well. If it had received the same attention that the A340 got, it would be doing a whole lot better. At this point, I think Airbus need to put new engines on the A330 and not do any of the other proposed developments meant to help the A330 compete with the B787 on range. An A330E could sell well in the mid-range market and form the basis for a great freighter. On 5000nm routes, an A330E might be close to the B787-8 in CASM. If Airbus try to push the range to 7000nm (as previously proposed) then the CASM rises too high. Keep it light. Keep it simple. Keep it inexpensive.
 
gaut
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 1:37 am

It is very impressive, congratulation to Boeing!!

Gaut

PS: Airbus will announce their numbers on the 17th of January
«Horum omnium fortissimi sunt Belgae.»
 
ikramerica
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 1:47 am

Quoting JAAlbert (Reply 3):
wow! that is truly amazing. and lots of widebodies in the order book too. At the risk of having a tomato tossed my way . . . how did airbus do? I can never figure out its order book.

As of the last Hamlet update, Boeing had more net orders booked than Airbus had net orders+pending combined. With so little time left, that was a very significant milestone.

With Boeing firming 104 more, that would mean Airbus would have to book every pending order they had, plus add about 110 new orders, firmed, to "beat" Boeing this year.

There is nothing to say this can't be done. Airbus pulled a bunch of A320 orders to lease companies out of their hat last December 31, but the odds are much lower than last year. And there are still 2 more days remaining in the year, including this Sunday, the Islamic "Monday," when quite a lot has been announced during the year.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
drexotica
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 1:52 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 7):
When Hamlet69 releases his year-end summary, we should do a comparison by list price.

I tallied this number yesterday at work (unfortunately, I don't have the figures in front of me now), and according to all the firmed orders through yesterday morning (before this and the Korean news), Boeing had captured ~66% (to 34% for Airbus) of the list value pricing totals. As many have noted, there is a big discrepancy wrt wide bodies this year. As you might recall, last year it was 55/45 split on a total list value market of ~$210B.
N707PA - Best looking commercial aircraft ever.
 
sstsomeday
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 2:09 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
With Airbus pumping up production of the A320 to close to 500 a year by the end of this decade, I don't think the 787 production numbers will be instrumental to helping Boeing overtake Airbus again... Whoever produces most of the most popular planes (i.e. the narrow bodies) is standing a very good chance of also being the biggest overall aircraft manufacturer in the world and for the foreseeable future this is going to be Airbus.



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 13):
Expect the sales and production gap between the A320 and the 737 to widen up again over the next years and I do not foresee such a considerable gap in narrow body production to be closed by wide body production for the simple fact wide bodies are produced in far smaller quantities...

You continue to ignore the value of those sales, as opposed to just the number of sales, in order to claim Airbus as the largest manufacturer.

Airbus themselves concede:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 25):
"In addition, because Boeing's orders include a much bigger proportion of the expensive widebody jets, the value of its orders should be about 75 percent higher than the value of Airbus orders."

So I'm amazed that you, of all people, would assert to another member:

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 16):
You really read reality according to the outcome you're after, don't you?

I would agree that:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 14):
....Boeing are more risk-averse and that they value profitability more than market share.

Airlines have learned this prudent rule the hard way. I'm glad that (some) manufacturers are learning it too.

Boeing recently refused an order from Southwest, if I recall correctly, given that 737 production is maxed out in the short term, because they didn't want to over extend themselves and become overconfident in terms of supply.

Boeing takes their "risks," I would assert, in the area of the "mission" of clean sheet A/C, which Boeing designs to create new classes of A/C and render existing models obsolete, rather than create A/C to compete with competitor's existing models. The 707, 747, 777, 787... were/are all new paradigns of design, creating new classes of A/C.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 15):
Quite a feat by Boeing - I think even they, as well as most of us, expected demand to taper off this year. And they have the 'recovery phase' of the US airlines to look forward to too, presumably starting next year.

Yes, I thought this year would be an order lull for both manufacturers, but they have both done quite well. And with the recovering U.S. airlines orders still anticipated, I would suggest it's Boeing's windfall to lose in the widebody arena.
I come in peace
 
sstsomeday
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 2:16 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 31):
With Boeing firming 104 more, that would mean Airbus would have to book every pending order they had, plus add about 110 new orders, firmed, to "beat" Boeing this year.

That would be "number" of orders, anyway, not "value" of orders.

Quoting DrExotica (Reply 32):
I tallied this number yesterday at work (unfortunately, I don't have the figures in front of me now), and according to all the firmed orders through yesterday morning (before this and the Korean news), Boeing had captured ~66% (to 34% for Airbus) of the list value pricing totals.

Therrrrrrrre we go. A much more significant statistic, in my view. Even if Airbus pulls some orders out of their hat, or adds early Jan. orders to it's 2006 tally to pull ahead of Boeing in terms of "number of orders," I would assume Boeing still prefers to be in the position of having sold a significantly higher dollar value of it's products.

(I hope I'm not being petty; it's my competitive spirit showing. Please take no offence.)
I come in peace
 
kaitak744
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 2:19 am

It is also important to Boeing that they keep a limit on the 737, in terms of production years. They probably want the 737RS around 2015, so accepting 737 orders beyond then won't be a good idea.
 
zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 2:30 am

Quoting SSTsomeday (Reply 34):
I would assume Boeing still prefers to be in the position of having sold a significantly higher dollar value of it's products.

In nearly all industries, market share comparisons are generally made by monetary value of sales, not number of units sold. Imagine one steelmaker saying "We sold 150 million 12 meter I-beams." Then another saying "We're bigger because we sold 170 million ball bearings."
 
7cubed
Posts: 121
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 2:36 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 10):
Whoever produces most of the most popular planes (i.e. the narrow bodies) is standing a very good chance of also being the biggest overall aircraft manufacturer in the world and for the foreseeable future this is going to be Airbus.

As SSTsomeday just mentioned the title of "Largest" goes to he who sells the most by dollar value. The gap between the two manufacturers has got to be a concern in Talouse. If the trend continues, they risk be seen as the Yugo of the aircraft industry.
joe
 
777atech
Posts: 29
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 3:22 am

Expect the rates for 777 and 737 to go up in 2007. Boeing wanted to see how the suppliers coped with the increased in production this year and so far it looks good. The 737 will go up to high thirty p/m while the 777 will go up to ten from what I hear.
This is madness - we work nearly 24/7 but I am pleased that there are no quality issues and overall things are smooth.
I personally couldn't care less how many airframes Airbus sells. I just want us to make them as good as possible and right now I can say that we do.
So, I say - good job to all those who made the last two three years so memorable for us.
We probably could do even better is we didn't spend so much time on the net reading this posts.....
"Happy new year" to all of you and may the new year be all clear skies and smooth flying.
 
atmx2000
Posts: 4301
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 4:04 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 36):
In nearly all industries, market share comparisons are generally made by monetary value of sales, not number of units sold. Imagine one steelmaker saying "We sold 150 million 12 meter I-beams." Then another saying "We're bigger because we sold 170 million ball bearings."

Another example would be the computer server market, where IBM is ranked the largest vendor despite the fact that other vendors have larger unit marketshare because its server revenue is by far the greatest. IBM sells far more expensive high performance & high RAS UNIX and mainframe servers than HPaq and Dell, who sell a lot more low end x86 servers.

Quoting 777ATech (Reply 38):
Expect the rates for 777 and 737 to go up in 2007. Boeing wanted to see how the suppliers coped with the increased in production this year and so far it looks good. The 737 will go up to high thirty p/m while the 777 will go up to ten from what I hear.

I don't think the 777 is going to 10 a month. It currently is at 6, for over 70 a year. I seem to recall a number around 80 to 90 per year being a target for production. But it certainly makes sense to boost production if the demand is there for the next few years, as it would reduce the market for the larger A350XWB model and create a large replacement market starting around 2020. Boeing can stick
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
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Stitch
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 4:23 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 35):
It is also important to Boeing that they keep a limit on the 737, in terms of production years. They probably want the 737RS around 2015, so accepting 737 orders beyond then won't be a good idea.

Even when the 737RS is launched, the USN will be in the process of taking over 100 737NGs for the P-8 Poseidon program, plus whatever sales Boeing can get from nations operating the P-3 Orion (and perhaps even the UK will take some to replace the Nimrod). Then there is the AEW&C Wedgetail sales, and the C-40B and C-40C.

Also, nothing would stop Boeing from offering the 737RS to customers slated to receive 737NGs once the "production switchover" happens. I imagine some of the first 747-8F customers had intended to buy 747-400Fs, but Boeing made the new plane available at a price that complimented the additional efficiencies the operators would gain from the new model and allowed them to cut over to the 747-8 exclusively in 2009.
 
zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 4:33 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 39):
I don't think the 777 is going to 10 a month. It currently is at 6, for over 70 a year.

I agree. 10/month makes no sense. Boeing haven't been selling 120+ per year for long enough and can't reasonably expect to in the future. I can imagine going from 6/month to 7/month, but not more. If I were Boeing, I'd probably stay at 6/month.
 
sstsomeday
Posts: 821
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 6:54 am

Quoting 777ATech (Reply 38):
I personally couldn't care less how many airframes Airbus sells. I just want us to make them as good as possible and right now I can say that we do.

Point taken, and great to hear.
I come in peace
 
777atech
Posts: 29
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:11 am

I should know how many 777 per month we build. I look at my schedule each day of my life. The rates for 777 are at seven per month right now. I can't believe no one knew....
 
atmx2000
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:23 am

Quoting 777ATech (Reply 43):
I should know how many 777 per month we build. I look at my schedule each day of my life. The rates for 777 are at seven per month right now. I can't believe no one knew....

Looking at the Boeing 777 deliveries for the last year and last few months indicates the aircraft delivery rate is between 5 and 6 still. 7 were delivered in November but only 4 were delivered in September. Not knowing where you are in the supply chain, it is possible that you are seeing increased production for future deliveries.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
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N328KF
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:30 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 35):
They probably want the 737RS around 2015, so accepting 737 orders beyond then won't be a good idea.

Well, the AA/DL/CO orders are for a particular product category, not for a particular product. Eg. the gentleman's agreements (nee exclusivity contracts) gave the carrier flexibility to shift their orders from say the 737 to Y1 without penalty. It didn't say what Y1 was...just "a future offering in this category." Etc.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
zvezda
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:33 am

Quoting 777ATech (Reply 43):
I should know how many 777 per month we build. I look at my schedule each day of my life. The rates for 777 are at seven per month right now. I can't believe no one knew....

I just looked up 777 deliveries on the Boeing website for 1 Feb 2006 through 30 Nov 2006. 56 in 10 months is a production rate of 5.6 per month. That would lead me to guess that the rate had been increase from 5 per month to 6 per month. Looking at the same period last year, there were only 36 deliveries or 3.6 per month. As of what date are Boeing producing 7 per month?
 
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N328KF
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Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:34 am

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 44):
Looking at the Boeing 777 deliveries for the last year and last few months indicates the aircraft delivery rate is between 5 and 6 still. 7 were delivered in November but only 4 were delivered in September.

I think this discrepancy is due to the TAAG SNAFU (not Boeing's fault.)
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
777atech
Posts: 29
Joined: Sun Mar 05, 2006 11:35 am

Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:51 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 46):
I just looked up 777 deliveries on the Boeing website for 1 Feb 2006 through 30 Nov 2006. 56 in 10 months is a production rate of 5.6 per month. That would lead me to guess that the rate had been increase from 5 per month to 6 per month. Looking at the same period last year, there were only 36 deliveries or 3.6 per month. As of what date are Boeing producing 7 per month?

I see what you mean but I believe the picture you and I are looking is not the same. You are looking at delivered frames while I, at aircraft in production.
I suppose, in January it will become more apparent what the true rates are.
As for the 737, that is what I heard and the sources are very reliable. Of course Boeing may or may not go for it but I believe they are.
Considering the problems it had the last time it increased the rates like this, I see why they proceed with such caution.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

Boeing Books 1044 Net Orders For 2006

Sun Dec 31, 2006 7:55 am

Quoting 777ATech (Reply 48):
I see what you mean but I believe the picture you and I are looking is not the same. You are looking at delivered frames while I, at aircraft in production.

Orders are a leading indicator and deliveries are a trailing indicator. However, The time from the start of final assembly to delivery isn't long enough to skew the numbers too badly. Again, I ask:

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 46):
As of what date are Boeing producing 7 per month?

When did the switch from 6 per month to 7 per month take place?

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