ANCFlyer
Topic Author
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Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:49 am

Please continue here from this thread:
Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight (by 9V Jan 1 2007 in Civil Aviation)
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
rikkus67
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:57 am

what is the most current information regarding this aircraft?
AC.WA.CP.DL.RW.CO.WG.WJ.WN.KI.FL.SK.ACL.UA.US.F9
 
9V
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:59 am

Indonesian military ships and aircraft have been searching for this passenger plane since it went missing on Monday. Now, excuse my ignorance but why haven't they found it yet? Is it a lack of resources in this part of the world?
 
Blasphemystic
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:00 am

Quoting Rikkus67 (Reply 1):
what is the most current information regarding this aircraft?

No one knows..not even the goverment of Indonesia or Adam Air, and for this reason I think Adam Air should stop all its flight operations untill more is known to what happen to this aircraft.

[Edited 2007-01-04 19:02:47]
The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good. -- Samuel Johnson
 
kretek
Posts: 76
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:02 am

Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 236):
Yet for the Indonesian Government, it is business as usual and there is no obvious emergency noticeable in its operation.

Can I add the perennial problem of haze, a result of deliberate and illegal forest fires set by farmers and palm plantation companies on the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan, cause immense suffering and health effects on the local population, and nearby Singapore and Malaysia. The government has done nothing for the past decade and has no motivation to prosecute those responsible nor enforce the law. Despite protests from neighbouring countries and satellite images of hot spots clearly showing who owns that plot of land, they turn around by arguing there were no witnesses on the ground to have witnessed the setting of fires! It is just as HB-IWC said, business as usual.

Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 227):
Yet I can assure you that the wheelings and dealings of Indonesia are governed by a completely different set of rules.

2 days ago, I flew from Singapore to Surabaya on ValuAir, with mainly indonesian passengers. On boarding, the flight crew announced in both English and Indonesian that boarding will take place according to seat numbers (rear first and front last). This is to prevent passengers seated at the front from holding up others who are seated at the back. In predictable Indonesian style, almost everyone in the waiting area surged to the boarding gate ignoring the seat procedure announcement. Fortunately the crew at the gate prevented this from happening. Then after landing in Surabaya, whilst still taxiing to the gate, I heard several (then immediately everyone) people unbuckling the seatbelts, jumping off the seats and starting to open the overhead bins despite the crew announcing in both english and indon to wait until the seatbelt signs are off.

The point is, there is a lack of discipline amongst indons. Too difficult to explain unless you have lived here. The motto is ' whatever comes by'.

Sorry if i go off topic here, but to illustrate the point: I was driving along a main busy road, 3 lanes, at night. Suddenly, there appeared in front of me what looked like a pole right in the middle of the left-most lane! It's just another shabby job, instead of removing the pole they just left it there and continued asphalting the road. This is the kind of attitude and thinking prevalent in Indon society. Different mindset. It's hard to comprehend for foreigners!



Quoting Rikkus67 (Reply 1):
what is the most current information regarding this aircraft?

On local news, still don't know the where abouts of crash site. Singapore and US are helping local authorities with the search.
 
198467
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:05 am

Yes, we sent a Fokker-50 search plane over..
When you play, people stare. When you work, people don't care.
 
jetfan
Posts: 39
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:05 am

Quoting ANother (Reply 234):
Interesting article in Flight about IOSA here.

Interesting article, especially the comments on "blame-free reporting". Do you think an independent organization allowing pilots, FAs, rampers and so on anonymously report irregularities would help? This could be located in a country not suspected to have economical, religious or other political interests, which of course appears to be difficult to find.

Maybe ratings based on safety reports, like Mandala499 gave us, could be published and help airline passengers to decide, which risk they want to take. Like Skytrax, but not related to comfort and service, but safety. It's difficult to rate safety based on cabin interior or IFE, but that's what passengers do, lacking other information. Reliable safety information not being available contributes a lot to pax choosing an airline based on fare only.
 
ptharris
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:07 am

I heard on Oregons 12 (www.kptv.com) this morning that the three only Americans on board were from Bend, Oregon. Sadly that's the only news I've been able to see within the last few days. Man, they've got to find that plane.
If at first you don't succeed, skydiving isn't for you.
 
HB-IWC
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:22 am

Quoting Rikkus67 (Reply 1):
what is the most current information regarding this aircraft?

We are still nowhere.

Quoting 9V (Reply 2):
Indonesian military ships and aircraft have been searching for this passenger plane since it went missing on Monday. Now, excuse my ignorance but why haven't they found it yet? Is it a lack of resources in this part of the world?

A severe lack of resources and infrastructure - according to today's Jakarta Post Makassar is the only radar in the vicinity there, and it is probably malfunctioning because of lack of maintenance - coupled with stupidity, ignorance and backwardness are likely some of the elements that are dragging this investigation.

As of today, Singapore has sent an aircraft to assist wit the search efforts, but it is unclear whether this aircraft has indeed been deployed. Also the US will soon be involved, according to a statement of the US Embassy in Jakarta. Fact is that the Indonesians, no matter all their blabbering to the contrary, can clearly not get a grip on the situation.

The initial reports that the plane had been found in the morning of January 2, followed by the announcement of 12 survivors by the highest authorities in the country are now the focus of most of the press report. All of the government officials involved in this embarrassing episode are now, in the best of Indonesian traditions, going out of their way to escape any blame.

An interesting tidbit with regard to this false information was a statement by the National Police saying that they would not investigate the false reports. Said National Police Spokesman Brig. Gen. Anton Bachrul Alam: "Lying to the public is not in the Criminal Code. Therefore we will not investigate these false reports." Welcome to one of the world's few remaining Banana Republics!

Meanwhile, operations at Adam Air seem to have resumed normally. One would actually expect a drop in bookings and passenger numbers after this terrible disaster, but not so in here: Adam flights have been going out from Jakarta's Soekarno Hatta airport as packed as ever. I presume that the airline might further drop its prices for a while, which should be enough to keeps the seats from staying empty.

Very disturbing, finally, was an intervention by Indonesia's Vice President Jusuf Kalla, who has openly come to the defense of Adam Air and its management, stating that the airline was for sure not to blame for whatever had happened. Coming from the country's number 2, this statement is very disturbing. One would expect a little bit more common sense from a person is such a responsible position, yet when considering that the Chairman of Adam Air and Speaker of the Indonesian House of Representatives is the Vice President's closest political ally, these statements come as no surprise.

I would presume that, if this disaster and its ensuing mishaps in communication had happened in many other countries in the world, political heads would have long rolled by now. Not so in this country, where political responsibility is a concept as shallow as the bearers of the political offices.
 
9V
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:30 am

Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 8):
the US will soon be involved

This is good news.
 
HB-IWC
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:44 am

Another bit of news that will not come as a surprise for anyone who has ever lived in Indonesia for a while, but which is without any doubt beyond ludicrous to all the others is that the Indonesian Government has today deployed a batch of Mystics to assist in the search for the missing plane.

Now, before you starting ROFL, I couldn't be more serious about this. The Indonesian Government actually has some of these people on the payroll and they dispatch them is all kinds of seemingly desperate situations. These people, up to the highest ranks of government, do indeed believe that a bunch of assorted mystics and paranormals can make a difference in these kinds of situations. It is at the same time the perfect illustration of the kind of backwardness I mentioned earlier that might be hampering the search operation.
 
198467
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 4:06 am

Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 10):

Has it been used before and were they success?
When you play, people stare. When you work, people don't care.
 
laddb
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 4:08 am

If I am correct, for now they pretty much agree that the plane went down in the water. I do not know what type of pinger was on that plane, but I do know they have very limited battery life. So unless there is a ship or sub within the general area listening for the pinger before the battery goes dead, they won't find it that way. At this point, I'd guess the battery is dead. So next, they must use aircraft to search for debris floating on the surface. I'm actually surprised they have not found any yet, but maybe there are not enough planes searching. Then, using current and wind models, you can predict fairly accurately where the plane went down vs where the debris was found. At that point you start the lawn mower pattern over the area towing a side scan sonar and logging the hits. Each hit is then investigated using an ROV or diver if it is shallow enough. The ROV can also pick up the black boxes. This all takes time, but if you have the resources available, it should already be happening.
 
Electech6299
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 4:24 am

Significant, reliable information and one hypothesis from the previous thread:

Quote:

This was the aircraft track according to the press conference last night:
http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y147/md11/DSC_0258.jpg
(Photo by Putra Astarto).

Now, after discussions with several pilots, flying from Surabaya to Manado, one would normally file for airway W32... which brings you from Surabaya VOR, to Makassar VOR, then to Manado VOR... But... Normally, pilots would request or ATC would give a shortcut from ENDOG (05-52.6S 117-09.6E) direct to Manado, or the two penultimate waypoints on the route (TAPIR or LUANG).

This should give you a track of 045 out of ENDOG (my chart's out of date)... However, that picture, by looking at the track where it crosses the CTAs, would appear to be on a 038 track out of ENDOG... Now this could be due to weather deviation, which if true, would add to more mystery as to the aircraft's whereabouts because it would have been able to then track direct to Manado after clearing the weather.

HOWEVER, what if the track heading difference was not due to weather deviation... a Navigation error, a repeat of the Tambolaka Incident by PK-KKE earlier last year.

The Tambolaka incident was a case where the IRS gave erroneous readings without raising the alarm to the pilot, which then guided the aircraft astray forcing the emergency landings. Adam Air and in particular PK-KKE has a history of "bad IRS"... poor maintenance of those units have been cited as the problem.

The Tambolaka incident is only possible if the pilots did not tune or allow the radios to autotune to VORs along the route. This would expose the aircraft to IRS errors on a remote area.

Coming back to the current accident, a track of 038 would quickly bring them out of radar coverage at Makassar, and also VOR coverage. Now a correct 045 track, once out of range from Makassar VOR would not pick Manado VOR until within 100NM nor would they detect Gorontalo VOR until about 100NM south of Gorontalo. This info is based on talking to a pilot who used to and one who still fly the route (they're not with Adam Air).

A 038 track from ENDOG would never bring them anywhere in range of Gorontalo or Manado VORs... and the only VOR that came within range is Palu... but Palu's range eastbound isn't too good either, limited to 80NM or so thanks to the mountains, and if you're on W32, you would not be able to pick up Palu VOR.

Now some flight crew still have the habit of not tuning their VORs to enroute facilities or allow their NAVs to autotune... One of the pilots I talked to who fly the 734 admits to occassionally forget tuning the VORs to enroute facilities, or know that his colleague has forgotten about it too. And when they do tune in, they never tune into Palu VOR. With a "bad IRS", this increases risk of straying from the intended route as there would be no FMC position corrections being put in and the sole positioning info would be from the IRUs which are faulty.

And on the communications front, such a track would put them out of range of Makassar Center and Manado Approach... and they possibly had no idea they were close to Palu... Despite having HF frequencies available, the case of PK-KKE showed no information/record that the pilots ever contacted the correct HF radio when they realised they were lost. In the case of KKW, this is again, a possibility...

If the aircraft had indeed made an error track of 038 instead of 045 without intention, the aircraft couldn't have tuned into Makassar VOR when they left ENDOG... a possible reason for this was that the crew didn't tune into it because ENDOG is at the edge of coverage for Makassar VOR, which they were going to by pass by some distance anyways.

From what I heard from friends, Capt. Widodo is a good captain, and I could be flamed for suggesting that this was a inertial nav error due to not tuning into VORs... but again, no one expected a pilot from the DGAC (Indo CAA) making that mistake while on KKE...

If the above could happen, then, I fear, that the search is totally in the wrong area. Following the example of the KKE incident, no one was aware of the problem until they descended. Now, in the case of KKW yesterday, had that error track 038 been taken, the top of descent point would have been past the northern coastline of Sulawesi, with nothing but sea until the Philippines... my greatest fear is that this has happened, and when they descended, they saw nothing but water (which, if on W32, you may see nothign but water at the initial top of descent for a few mins under normal circumstances)... Given the shape of Sulawesi, they may have been lead to believe that they descended early, and decided to press on for a few more miles, which by then would ensure that the northern coast of Sulawesi was beyond the horizon behind them... leaving them no positional reference at all!

God I pray I'm wrong and that they could be found soon! The crew on the flight are known to my friends and colleagues and are good people. I had to comfort a friend who panicked because one of the F/As was his good friend.

God Bless Them!

Mandala499



Quote:
The area only has 1 radar, which is in Makassar, and it only goes to about 100 - 150NM. Now the last radar contact was at 340@100NM... so, there is a possibility that it was still flying and OK when it left radar coverage area...

Mandala499



Quote:
Quote:
But hang on, if I'm not mistaken a distress call was made (assuming that at least that info is correct of course). That should give them a pretty accurate clue about the distance flown (although not necessarily the heading). Is there any more info on this? If the distress call came about halfway during the flight, they wouldn't have run out of fuel (assuming they made no mistake in the fuel calculations, everything is possible here).

As silly as Adam Air is, the ops guys do load the correct amount of fuel, + for the alternates... this is probably the only safe thing in Adam I can vouch for. Flights on that route were given 4hrs fuel endurance as a result, and the information is that the flight that day was no different.

The only things official are:
- Aircraft was given direct to Manado from ENDOG (confirmed in press conference)
- Aircraft reported abeam Makassar at radial 320/80NM MKS @ FL350 (time unknown)
- Last Radar Contact was radial 340/100NM MKS @ FL350 (there was a timestamp on this but forgot when).
- 2 ELT impact signals were received... 1 over the water, another was overland... and quite some distance apart.
- No distress calls were made over the COMMS.

I wouldn't accept any other official explanations without skepticism on any official news that would bring a light of hope after yesterday's debacle!

One thing I still need to check was, apart from 1 GA aircraft, were there any other aircraft within 250NM that was on the expected VHF frequencies.

Mandala499

Link from Jetfuel
http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=8143&size=A

Quote:
Jetfuel, reply 197
I found a news article claiming plane broke up in mid-air causing parts to fall over wide area because the Adam Air Boeing 737-400 emergency beacons are sending signals from different locations


".............The cause of the crash still remains to be determined, but in an interview with Jakarta-based MetroTV, someone called Felix claimed that some months ago some Adam Air pilots were forced to resign because they objected to fly planes they considered unsafe..."
Send not to know for whom the bell tolls...it tolls for thee
 
Curmudgeon
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 6:01 am

From an earlier post:

"I admire the effort, but I suspect FL360 is not going to provide the best results looking for a weak (e.g. underwater, buried in ground, or low battery) signal. Too much interference. 18 hours after the accident- that was the following morning? Nighttime you might have had a chance, but during the day there is too much radio interference."

What are you talking about? There is no difference in interference on 121.50/243mHz day or night. These are VHF signals, and are detectable by line-of-sight rules. An aircraft 36,000' above a signal will hear it from 233 nautical miles. (unless submerged or hidden by hills, etc). If satellites can detect these signals, your "too high" hypothesis is kind of shot.
Jets are for kids
 
FlyingColours
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 6:23 am

The ELTs we used to have on the 737s would broadcast on the usual freqs (121.5 etc...) for 48 hours before the battery died. They would also broadcast to satilites for 24 hours after activation.

Either way I find this entire situation appalling and its about time the rest of the world intervined. I mean I've heard of corrupt governments and seen lots of corruption elsewhere but they have taken the entire biscuit tin there.

Phil
FlyingColours
Lifes a train racing towards you, now you can either run away or grab a chair & a beer and watch it come - Phil
 
nwafflyer
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 7:00 am

The thing that totally amazes me is the apparent reaction of the Indonesian people. Yes, I know Indonesia is a third world country, but I cannot understand why Adam Air is not being boycotted by the public. I read the earlier threads on the Indonesian reactions, but personally, I just can't make sense of it at all.

And then, I also wonder if someone in the government knows what has happened -- this is 2007, and with today's technology, combined with the technology of even an old 737, this whole incident makes no sense at all
 
hmmmm...
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 7:50 am

One possibility is that the aircraft suffered a terrorist bombing. Islamic terrorism has been very active in Indonesia lately. If the aircraft broke apart at high altitude, and fell to earth in smaller pieces, that would make finding it that much more difficult. In that scenario, there is no crash site, so they are looking for something that does not exist. The crash site was at cruising altitude and all you have on the ground are small pieces hidden by the forest canopy.

It could be that wreckage is not found by searchers but by native indians living under that canopy.
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
 
jetfuel
Posts: 1027
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:14 am

Quoting Nwafflyer (Reply 16):
Yes, I know Indonesia is a third world country, but I cannot understand why Adam Air is not being boycotted by the public. I read the earlier threads on the Indonesian reactions, but personally, I just can't make sense of it at all.

Sadly, it's the way of life. For many Indonesians their fate is in the hands of the gods. Airline travel is safe and they have been reassured by the government that the Adam Air is 100% safe. There have been hundreds killed in ferry sinkings and road accidents are also common. For many money is very limited and they will take their chances to save a few $.

Yes it is much a 3rd world country and with that brings an acceptance of things being second rate.
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
mandala499
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 11:52 am

Quoting Rikkus67 (Reply 1):
what is the most current information regarding this aircraft?

Search is now beginning in the gulf of Tomini south of Gorontalo (the big gulf around MKS 040@400NM)... edging towards my previous hypothesis.
1 RSAF F50 is searching that area, and another RSAF "jet" is (unofficially) reported to begin search "somewhere near N02 - N04 E122 - E124... which is the search area I proposed to the NTSC, though this last one is UNCONFIRMED.

The silly thing is different reports trying to confirm whether the radar in MKS was working or not and there are some who are trying to push the search area to be more focused on the southwest sector of MKS... around the area just after ENDOG... this is despite the last radar report already being in the north west sector (and this is one of the few information that has not changed since).

Quoting Nwafflyer (Reply 16):
but I cannot understand why Adam Air is not being boycotted by the public.

The local travel agency association (ASITA) in if I remember correctly, 3 provinces, have boycotted Adam Air since late last year... this has not reduced the number of pax travelling on Adam Air though.

Mandala499
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
Palladium
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:11 pm

what I don't understand is why the pilot insisted to fly when they got a warning about bad weather... i just don't understand.

Well this is just my personal opinion, I have a strong feeling that this is because of the pilot's lack of judgment.

I still don't understand why everything must reside on pilot's decision, why don't let the ATC that made the only decision whether you are good to fly or not.

this way, this kind of accident will never occur.
 
MCOflyer
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:27 pm

Quoting Palladium (Reply 20):
what I don't understand is why the pilot insisted to fly when they got a warning about bad weather... i just don't understand.

Probaly because of scheduling or he may have thought the weather would be clear by the time they reached their intended destination.

MCOflyer
Never be afraid to stand up for who you are.
 
PlymSpotter
Posts: 10000
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:50 pm

Quoting Palladium (Reply 20):
I still don't understand why everything must reside on pilot's decision, why don't let the ATC that made the only decision whether you are good to fly or not.

this way, this kind of accident will never occur.

But having read some of the reports in the previous thread, it sounds like these pilots are being heavily leaned upon to fly no matter what, so I would presume that includes bad weather.

Five days, no sign of the plane, whilst I still hope a miracle occurs, I feel it may be time to send mycondolences to the families.  tombstone 

Dan
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
mohavewolfpup
Posts: 129
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:05 pm

i wonder why these threads about this don't have all the a .net armchair experts and faa "certificate of completion from bobo the ape's FAA child mascot junior inspectors club" going crazy in it.

it's nice not seeing the speculation like what was running rampant in the GOL airliner that crashed and others before, maybe the tide is turning towards quality posts?

keep it up!  Smile
 
Mr.BA
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:22 pm

I'm no pilot but what can bad weather do to a jet cruising at FL 360? I mean they could have avoided or re-route about the weather? Can bad weather with turbulence bring down a plane like this?
Boeing747 万岁!
 
kretek
Posts: 76
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 2:24 pm

An article in Jawa Pos (Java Post) today said despite the missing Adam Air, this did not have an effect on passengers using Juanda Airport, Surabaya. Ticket counters at the airport were busy as usual like any other day. Passenger numbers using Juanda (departures and arrivals) have increased since 1 Jan....

So business as usual.
 
Curmudgeon
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:26 pm

Quoting Mr.BA (Reply 24):
Can bad weather with turbulence bring down a plane like this?

If it was mishandled, yes. It doesn't take much to overspeed at high altitude, nor does it take much to stall if the airspeed excursions are large enough.

Speculation has already been voiced over weather radar serviceability, without which there would be no way to detect large thunderstorm cells.

If the aircraft broke up in flight, you first think of a bomb, then a control loss followed by an over control/structural failure, then the less likely structural failure of a key component such as a spar or the tail. Actually...I wonder too about a rudder event.(Based on absolutely nothing, and not advancing it as a possible cause) Does Indonesia require its airlines to comply with AD measures, such as the recent rudder actuator mods?
Jets are for kids
 
jetfuel
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:33 pm

Quoting Mr.BA (Reply 24):
I'm no pilot but what can bad weather do to a jet cruising at FL 360?

A VERY GOOD QUESTION....

Firstly was the 734 at 36,000? If so WHY? That’s a very high cruising altitude for a loaded 734 less than halfway along the 2 hour route of flight. Let's consider the it was about to cross the mountain ranges near the coastline and hit mountain turbulence. At that altitude I think they would be pretty close to the high altitude stalling speed.??

I theorised a couple of days ago on an inflight break and the aircraft may have stalled and spun in sudden severe turbulence. I would imagine that in that event the inexperienced crew would have had any control and hence the no distress call


I know the 732 has a max celing of 35000 feet and I am pretty sure depending on variant that the 734 is 37000 feet. Now in my experience at 36,000 feet in turbulence you are really pushing your luck. Just hope the stick shaker worked...







.
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
 
Curmudgeon
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 3:47 pm

I really don't think that mountain wave or lee effect turbulence extends up to FL360 from 10,000 ft mountains. Especially in the tropics.

FL360 would be a very much normal cruising level for WEST bound traffic in RVSM airspace (which Indonesia is). Higher is better to get around most of the cu and weather. FL360 or FL370 are not unusual for a two hour flight, and
FL360 would be suitable for an aircraft with a cruise weight of around 53.5 tonnes (take-off weight 55.5 or so).

The stick shaker by the way does nothing to enhance control, and in an EFIS airplane is not the first indication of low speed buffet being approached. Also, at the high levels the cruise Mach is much closer to the max value than the min one, and either will lead to grief if grossly exceeded. If cruising above the optimum level, in severe turbulence it is possible to exceed both at the same time...the classic coffin corner which is avoided by a wide margin normally.
Jets are for kids
 
Ryanair!!!
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 4:00 pm

Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 8):
Very disturbing, finally, was an intervention by Indonesia's Vice President Jusuf Kalla, who has openly come to the defense of Adam Air and its management, stating that the airline was for sure not to blame for whatever had happened. Coming from the country's number 2, this statement is very disturbing.

I would have waited until any reports or findings were out before passing any statements.. Any fool would know that. Then again, i am not an minister in the Indon cabinet.

Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 10):
These people, up to the highest ranks of government, do indeed believe that a bunch of assorted mystics and paranormals can make a difference in these kinds of situations. It is at the same time the perfect illustration of the kind of backwardness I mentioned earlier that might be hampering the search operation.

This is where I tend to disagree. The use of psychics have long been used in situations where science cannot yield any good answers. Just look at the amount of psychics used to solve crimes in the good old US of A. Bomohs have always been used to ensure good weather during national events and it is no secret of their usage in this part of the world.

Quoting Jetfuel (Reply 28):
I would imagine that in that event the inexperienced crew would have had any control and hence the no distress call

On the contrary, a distress call was sent out just before the aircraft's disappearance from the radar.
Welcome to my starry one world alliance, a team in the sky!
 
Curmudgeon
Posts: 682
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2006 7:19 pm

RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 5:14 pm

Quoting Curmudgeon (Reply 29):
the classic coffin corner which is avoided by a wide margin normally.

Although I should add that the 734 is not thrust limited, and it will easily climb too high for the wing, beyond the coffin corner. EFIS airplanes have a graphic display on the speed tape of the high and low speed limits...a yellow band is shown above Mmo and below Vmin., and these pinch together at max altitude.
Jets are for kids
 
aviasian
Posts: 1244
Joined: Mon Jan 08, 2001 8:11 am

RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 5:28 pm

This whole episode gets sadder by the day. You would have thought that the blatant lie about having found the wreckage with 12 survivors was bad enough and most unforgivable.

It has just emerged that:

Quoted from channelnewsasia: But the main focus has shifted to areas south of Manado, the plane's original destination, after Manado's Sam Ratulangi Airport reported detecting a signal from the plane.

The signal was detected on Monday around the coastal village of Nuangan in Bolaang Mongondow district, some 110 kilometres (68 miles) southwest of Manado but only reported on Thursday.

"We have received a new lead based on the emergency locator beacon aircraft (ELBA), which was detected by the air traffic control at Sam Ratalungi," Air Marshal Eddy Suyanto, commander of the Hasanuddin Air Base at Makassar in South Sulawesi, was quoted as saying in the Republika newspaper.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...fp_asiapacific/view/250807/1/.html

How can one's heart not ache for the anxious and probably increasingly dis-illusioned relatives and loved ones.

KC Sim
 
198467
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 1:34 am

RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 6:03 pm

Looking at the wrong place again?  flamed 
When you play, people stare. When you work, people don't care.
 
lutfi
Posts: 687
Joined: Wed Sep 27, 2000 6:33 pm

RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 6:53 pm

As others say - can't say I am surprised. Worked in Indonesia for 5 years in total, and "TII" applies (This Is Indonesia). Arsenic in orange juice etc.

It is far far worse for Indonesians, in my opinion. As a foreigner, you are just an observer. But the people I felt sorry for were those Indonesians doing their absolute best to do the right things, who are then undermined by "business as usual" They can't just be observers.

As for ASITA boycott of ADAMAIR - think you will find that is also due to commercial reasons, not safety reasons!

As to the post about someone buying a ticket on Adam for 4 USD cheaper, well, that is one-two days salary for many. As someone once told me - it isn't a dollar, it is two kilos of rice, which is alot of food...
 
w3ndytj4n
Posts: 206
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 8:23 pm

What the hell is going on? Singapore and Manado Airport having two different ELBA signal? This is a terrible situation for the passengers' family. May the family be bless by god to habdle this confusing situation.


w3ndy
Wendy Tjan
 
mandala499
Posts: 6458
Joined: Wed Aug 29, 2001 8:47 pm

RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:11 pm

Indonesia is one of those places which Gordon Bethune would kill himself... Here, it doesn't matter how much cheese you take out of the pizza, people will still eat it if it's cheap enough, no matter how bad it tastes!

The ASITA boycott was not about safety, but about the bad service to the agents customers and KI's treatment for agents... The blame is was always shifted back to the customer or the agent whichever was easiest.

But sales haven't been affected much...

By the way... bad weather? How bad was the weather? The winds aren't problems... other aircraft went through OK at about the same time. Cloud? Well they would avoid weather using their weather radar... So, what else? Here's the weather image I got from someone nearest to the time of incident...



Quote:
I'm no pilot but what can bad weather do to a jet cruising at FL 360? I mean they could have avoided or re-route about the weather? Can bad weather with turbulence bring down a plane like this?

Well, here's the SIGWX from the area at the time: OCNL EMBD CB 530 XXX
I've been on FL370 in the area and had an OVERCAST that descended down... with some nice ice and CBs as the legs... *yucks*

Weather Radar have been cited as serviceable from insiders.

Quote:
Firstly was the 734 at 36,000?

It was at FL350, not 360... it was new years, no cargo, under 100 pax... so, not the usual heavy flight...

Quote:
I would imagine that in that event the inexperienced crew would have had any control and hence the no distress call

I'd like to hear you say that to his colleagues and his family... Capt. Widodo may have only been with Adam for under a year, but he ain't a noobie... not even to the 734. Recollections from those he worked with doesn't show he's a reckless pilot (the sad reality is, the REAL COWBOYS tend to last longer here... somehow).

Quote:
On the contrary, a distress call was sent out just before the aircraft's disappearance from the radar.

What distress call? A few mins before it left radar range it was reporting abeam of MKS VOR... @ FL350, and nothing to worry about.

KC, well, I have since the first evening when I got the pics from the press conference suspected that the plane went down somewhere north of Sulawesi island... it took me another 24hrs to validate the theory with certain help, and it was sent to the NTSC within 36 hrs of the press conference... Now, the sad reality is, they've been searching areas where they know the plane had passed over... and only today have they expanded the envelope to other possibility. Reason, they were fixated by the reported ELT locations, and once realising it's not there, they traced back towards Surabaya beyond the last radar contact. It made me pull my hair out!

In addition to the above...

Wendy,
What makes it even sadder is, within the last 36 hrs there have been news of 2 more ELBA transmissions to add to the original two... and the distance between the two? 600NM!

This is what you get when a bunch of people panicks, relies on hearsay, and looses the plot. A more systematic approach would have made this whole thing quicker... But then again... Tango India India!

For me is... WTI... Welcome To Indonesia...

mandala499
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
Vimanav
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:14 pm

In June 1982 a BA 742 taking off from KUL to PER had a rather unpleasant adventure with volcanic ash. Mount Galunggung (the volcano) located some 110 miles southeast of Jakarta, erupted some two hours before departure of the aircraft from KUL and had spewed an enormous cloud of ash and gas high into the atmosphere, and into the path of G-BDXH. All four engines ingested the highly corrosive ash and stopped. It was only after repeated attempts that 3 of them were re-started. The aircraft made an emergency landing at JKT after having glided around without power for about 15 minutes.

Its conjecture, but could PK-KKW have been a victim of vocanic ash ingestion, consequent loss of power and going into the sea? The problem may have been created or compounded by faulty IRS leading it astray over an area of volcanic activity and away from its designated flight path.

rgds//Vimanav
Sarfaroshi kii tamannaa ab hamaare dil mein hai, Dekhnaa hai zor kitnaa baazu-e-qaatil mein hai
 
mandala499
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:39 pm

No volcanic activity or reported ash during the time... so this one is unlikely.

mandala499
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
speedbird128
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 9:49 pm

Quoting Jetfuel (Reply 28):
732 has a max celing of 35000

Some 732's are capable of F370... Nationwide in South Africa often were cruising F370 on a 500nm sector PLZ-JNB...
A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
 
MD88Captain
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 11:09 pm

Stick shaker doesn't activate at high altitudes. Buffet is your first indication unless you have a nice EFIS aircraft which will warn you in other ways. Stick shaker works off of AOA.
 
nitrohelper
Posts: 406
Joined: Tue Mar 08, 2005 5:32 am

RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Fri Jan 05, 2007 11:38 pm

Quoting Lutfi (Reply 34):
As someone once told me - it isn't a dollar, it is two kilos of rice, which is a lot of food...

This is something that people who use dollars in the West need to understand. I learned to compare costs by using the "per day" conversion. I paid skilled workers $ 10.00 usd per day in Indonesia, in the USA i would pay $200.00 a day. So when you say a $4.00 in ticket price saving in Indoland , that is $80.00 in the USA !

Hello Southwest, I hear you're $80.00 dollars cheaper to ???, the same as $4.00 to Manado.
 
F9Animal
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Sat Jan 06, 2007 12:56 am

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 17):
One possibility is that the aircraft suffered a terrorist bombing. Islamic terrorism has been very active in Indonesia lately. If the aircraft broke apart at high altitude, and fell to earth in smaller pieces, that would make finding it that much more difficult. In that scenario, there is no crash site, so they are looking for something that does not exist. The crash site was at cruising altitude and all you have on the ground are small pieces hidden by the forest canopy.

It could be that wreckage is not found by searchers but by native indians living under that canopy.

That is a possibility. But, the authorities have been so quiet, sharing minimal information. Someone stated they made two distress calls. What were the distress calls about? If it was a terrorist bombing, it would be rather difficult to transmit two SOS's, at least I would think.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
198467
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2007 1:34 am

RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:00 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 41):

Not distress calls I think, rather ELT signals instead..
When you play, people stare. When you work, people don't care.
 
2H4
Posts: 7960
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:08 am




Quoting F9Animal (Reply 41):
But, the authorities have been so quiet



Quoting F9Animal (Reply 41):
Someone stated they made two distress calls.

After reporting that the aircraft had been found, and that there were 12 survivors, I'm not sure what it's going to take to convince me that any information coming from the authorities is even partially accurate. Their credibility is simply ruined.

I hate to sound pro-US/anti-everyone else, but I suspect the only source to be trusted will be the the NTSB....


2H4


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mandala499
Posts: 6458
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Sat Jan 06, 2007 3:00 am

There's just so many truths, half truths and outright lies that has been spread around, that until the aircraft has been found, one (including journalists!) has to be extremely careful on what to believe on this matter...

There was one news today where a pax's cellphone sent an SMS to his relative on 1JAN and that his cellphone was active and was able to receive a call on 2 JANUARY... 1 day after the accident... and then just as people were getting uneasy about it, it turns out the pax had forwarded his number to another number just prior to boarding the aircraft...

Everyone's trying to push their theories by going to the media about hearing an ELT here and there, from pilots, to experts, and even to bystanders. One guy is now standing on a palm tree in Paliwali with his binoculars trying to be the first one to spot a piece of wreckage!

If you add all the reports coming in, you'd probably end up with a search area of 800NM radius plus a few places another 800NM from the center of that ever growing "silly probably area".

The only promising lead is the bunch of shoes picked up washed up on the northern shores of Sulawesi with largely ignored reports of an ELT transmission about 200NM WNW of Manado, picked up 2 days ago...

Then that was quickly clobbered over by an report of an ELT transmission being picked up about 400NM South West of Manado... which was highly publicised. No doubt this one puts more pressure on the search and rescue to answer to those who are pushing for this area to be searched...

Very few has so far come up with a systematic chronology to support their theories on where the plane could have ended up... and those who have, are fortunately not picked up by mainstream media and can be looked at by the NTSC as potentials. But they don't need these sensationlistic diversions everyone seems to come up with every bloody 6 hrs!

The silliest that has come up was that the aircraft landed back safely in Surabaya 2 days ago and made it to the news... the second silliest was one "expert" saying the aircraft descended to 8000' deliberately due to lost comms and then hit a mountain... third silliest is the theory that because the winds have been up to 70 knots up there, the plane broke up due to the winds (hello? doesn't Europe have over 100kt winds routinely in winter at cruise altitudes?)...

This is becoming more and more of a circus... while the chances of 102 or some of the 102 lives being saved is getting slimmer due to these publicity stunts... yet, even if they're all dead, 102 people deserves a proper and timely burial!

Mandala499
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
ltbewr
Posts: 12388
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Sat Jan 06, 2007 3:43 am

What about spy satallites like those of the USA, couldn't they have picked up info and is there someplace a record of this a/c as to when and where it disappeared?
It appears that the USA Navy or that of other countries need to get involved to help in the search as they may have the proper equipment to search. That can include deep search subs, search equipment and the like. It is obious that the Indonesian authorities are not sufficient compentent or are cowered by political fears to do a proper search for this missing aircraft and it's pax.
I repeat again that Boeing, Airbus and other suppliers as well as critical financial companies outside of Indonesia take immediate action to black list Adam Air from continuing in business. While I realize there are political risks with such a policy, it is more important to protect potential Adam Air pax from any other possible tragedy.
 
ATCGOD
Posts: 517
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 3:24 am

RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Sat Jan 06, 2007 3:53 am

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 45):
It appears that the USA Navy or that of other countries need to get involved to help in the search as they may have the proper equipment to search.

And you'd like to foot the bill for this? Because we sure know that Indonesia won't.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 45):
I repeat again that Boeing, Airbus and other suppliers as well as critical financial companies outside of Indonesia take immediate action to black list Adam Air from continuing in business.

So they can then go to the Russians or Chinese and buy their aircraft? Come on man, that doesn't make any sense and there's nothing Boeing or Airbus would have have to do with that policy. Show the dough and it's yours.
 
RIXrat
Posts: 671
Joined: Sun Nov 27, 2005 10:20 am

RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:00 am

Quoting Mandala499 (Reply 44):
I hate to sound pro-US/anti-everyone else, but I suspect the only source to be trusted will be the the NTSB....

Remember, the NTSB is only going to play an advisory role, as well as Boeing. This is an Indonesian-run show, and if there are any announcements to be made, they will surely be made by local officials and not by some so-called foreign experts.

(Sorry, I may have the poster wrong here. It wasn't Mandala499, but the previous one, but I can't go back to change it.)
 
hmmmm...
Posts: 1959
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 8:32 am

RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:24 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 41):
Someone stated they made two distress calls.

Then it was later claimed that they didn't receive any distress call.

Whatever tidbits come from indonesia mean nothing.
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
 
2H4
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RE: Adam Air Flight Loses Contact During Flight 2

Sat Jan 06, 2007 5:41 am




Quoting RIXrat (Reply 47):
Remember, the NTSB is only going to play an advisory role, as well as Boeing.

I hear what you're saying. I was just saying that I'll place a lot more credibility in reports from the NTSB than those from the current sources.


2H4


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