Flying-Tiger
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A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 7:59 pm

Highly interesting press report:

Quote:
SINGAPORE (MarketWatch) -- AirAsia Bhd (5099.KU) will exercise an option for 50 Airbus A320s in the "very near future", the discount carrier's chief executive Tony Fernandes said Friday in a speech to a corporate event in Singapore.

On Jan 9., Fernandes said the Malaysia-based carrier had signed a firm order for 50 A320s and taken an option for another 50. The planes have a list price of about $70 million or $3.5 billion for 50.

Asked to define the "very near future", Fernandes said AirAsia will wait to see a new engine design for the A320s before exercising the option.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...A9B-3CFD-40C1-91E1-A0FA4DD7D305%7D
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planemaker
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:06 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
Highly interesting press report:

Not really "highly interesting" in that it doesn't say anything about the "new engine design" and delivery time frame is a ways off.

The 50 firm orders deliveries go through to 2013, so the 50 options based on a "new engine design" is +6 years out.
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leelaw
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:09 pm

"Airbus rethinks plan to put winglets on A320"

Quote:
Airbus’s mid-life update for the A320 family has hit trouble with the revelation that it is unlikely to adopt new large winglets that were central to expected fuel burn improvements...

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...+plan+to+put+winglets+on+A320.html

The A320 "Enhanced" design concept floated by Mr. Leahy in June anticipated up to half of the projected fuel savings coming from the installation of "large winglets:"



Quote:
Airbus is working on the Enhanced models with the target of reducing fuel burn by 4-5%. “I would bet we probably can achieve this,” says Leahy. He says that “the winglets could get a couple of percent, the aerodynamic clean-up could get another 1% and a little more tweaking here and there could give another 1% on today’s A320”.

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...dy+plans+with+upgraded+'A320.html

An updated A320 without the winglets, though a perfectly natural and desireable evolution of the design, may not live up to the monicker "enhanced;" at least not as originally touted by Mr. Leahy last summer.

[Edited 2007-01-12 13:19:10]
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slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:19 pm

Forget about winglets or any other aerodynamic features; something much better came almost out of the blue after John Leahy floathed the idea of an A320E.

Still remember the proposal from PW recently in which they tooted an all-new highly efficient engine for the A320 (up to 12% lower tsfc), which would increase overall efficiency of the A320 by 6% (since the engine itself would be bigger and heavier).

The new engine would be available only to the A320 (since there isn't enough clearance to fit it to the 737NG) and could be in service already beginning of next decade according to the engine manufacturer in the article.

If Airbus indeed has picked up the offer from PW, then it is bound to give the formal go-ahead somewhere this year and a mega-order for 50 planes from a low cost customer like AK would definitely be something Airbus likes to keep quiet till they are ready to announce it...

[Edited 2007-01-12 13:26:01]
 
leelaw
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:26 pm

"P&W touts geared turbofan version of Airbus A320 as early as 2011 to gain two year advantage over potential new Boeing narrowbody"

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...+gain+two+year+advantage+over.html
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slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:32 pm

That's the article, thank you for the link, leelaw.

It sounds as if Airbus has floated the idea of an A320E centered around a new PW-engine with Mr Fernandes and he has fallen for it: 'Launch it and we'll double the order right away'.

[Edited 2007-01-12 13:33:26]
 
leelaw
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:52 pm

Here's another interesting article from earlier last year as well which may serve to temper some enthusiasm:

"Gearing up again: Pratt & Whitney's obsession with the geared turbofan"

Quote:
Pratt & Whitney’s long-standing passion, some might say obsession, for the geared turbofan (GTF) concept is well known. Equally familiar, however, is the frequency over the past 20 years with which this apparently promising technology has either failed to live up to its promise, or been ruled out on the grounds of high cost, or risk, or both...

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles.../03/07/205312/Gearingup+again.html
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slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 10:34 pm

The GTF is one of those innovative concepts which is easier said than done, hence the fact it has indeed been floated several times in the past and why Airbus probably isn't embracing it right away, despite the seemingly huge benefits.

On the other hand, it would be foolish of Airbus NOT to seriously consider it as it gives them a clear advantage over their competitor and -at least discretely- try to market it with some key customers to see their response, provided of course they feel the technology is on the eve of a break through...

P&W recent comments they will conduct the first ground test of the GTF demonstrator engine in mid-November 2007, might have given Airbus very good grounds to give it a try and provided it gets enough positive response like this one, they might actually do it.

Whatever the outcome, it definitely sounds as if Mr. Fernades is talking about the GTF for the A320, so presumably it has been shown to him as a credible improvement to the A320 for the "very near future".

[Edited 2007-01-12 14:35:10]
 
baroque
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 10:44 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 2):
An updated A320 without the winglets, though a perfectly natural and desirable evolution of the design, may not live up to the monicker "enhanced;" at least not as originally touted by Mr. Leahy last summer.

How much of the welding technology and Al-Li alloy technology could be introduced? Presumably welding would make for some weight savings as well as cost reductions and lighter alloys - well!

When the A330 was turning into a 350 Mark I or II it was gaining internal space by redesign (welding +Al-Li alloys). Presumably a similar effort on the A320 would be possible and add to the width advantage it already has.

I was sitting waiting in our local mall today, and as the fatty boomsticks passed with monotonous regularity, it seemed that wider NBs will be all the rage!

As has been beaten to death on many other threads, Airbus' financial future is heavily dependent on the A32x so it is surely worth a bit of effort to make it even more competitive and, perhaps, easier to build.
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:01 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 8):
How much of the welding technology and Al-Li alloy technology could be introduced? Presumably welding would make for some weight savings as well as cost reductions and lighter alloys - well!

I would assume that this is more a constant product improvement and less a block-change issue. Usuing laser welding should shovel off a couple of kilos, Al-Li as well - question is only the price for using these applications. But in general I agree - Airbus should try to wring out as much as possible of an A320 V2.0.

Out of curiosity: what was the original OEW for the first A320-200s, and what is it for today´s?
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Stitch
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:09 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 7):
The GTF is one of those innovative concepts which is easier said than done, hence the fact it has indeed been floated several times in the past and why Airbus probably isn't embracing it right away, despite the seemingly huge benefits.

On the other hand, it would be foolish of Airbus NOT to seriously consider it as it gives them a clear advantage over their competitor and -at least discretely- try to market it with some key customers to see their response, provided of course they feel the technology is on the eve of a break through...

It would also give P&W "on wing" experience with the GTF for a few years to work out the bugs - just in time for Boeing to hang the latest version on the 737RS/Y1.  duck 

Seriously, Airbus has nothing to lose by improving the A320. They may not be able to launch the A320RS on the same schedule as Boeing is planning Y1, so improving the plane now will continue to fill the order backlog while the model is "hot" (much like the A330, now) and provide them a "revenue cushion" should things start to get "lean" as Boeing sorties the Y1.
 
leelaw
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:12 pm

Airbus needs to sustain, even significantly grow earnings provided by the narrowbody programs, particularly in the 2010-13 timeframe, since:

Quote:
"No doubt, the Ebit contribution from twin-aisles will start to diminish from 2010," says Olivier Andries, head of strategy at Airbus.

See: "Airbus Wide-Body Slump Portends New Headaches" http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116827800448070351.html

A GTF powered A320E, if ultimately feasible, could possibly be just what the doctor ordered.
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keesje
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:41 pm

GE /CFM are also working on a LEAP56 CFM56 improvement, bigger carbon fan, etc. but keep very quiet on it. For fun I made a spec & Henry Lam a artist impression some time before Airbus tested the water for a 320E.

http://www.cardatabase.net/modifiedairlinerphotos/photos/big/00007055.jpg
http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/2724857
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baroque
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Fri Jan 12, 2007 11:47 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 9):
Out of curiosity: what was the original OEW for the first A320-200s, and what is it for today´s?

Good question!

Is your couple of kilos an English couple (understated) or a German couple (2.0000)?  Smile According to those who know more than I, the lower need for overlap with riveting would be quite significant as well as removing the need for the rivets and the associated "performance".
 
MCOflyer
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sat Jan 13, 2007 11:32 am

If AK want to do this let them. It could bring AB some much needed money. I hope IAE chips in for this one.

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ikramerica
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sat Jan 13, 2007 12:12 pm

I would think that with the GTF engine, if PW is serious, they need to move forward on a version for the 320 and one for the 737, and do it on spec. It's a gamble, but the best achievements in flight have come from gambling like that...
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MCOflyer
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sat Jan 13, 2007 12:13 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 15):
It's a gamble, but the best achievements in flight have come from gambling like that...

True, the 707 and DC-8 are both examples.

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ikramerica
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sat Jan 13, 2007 2:49 pm

747, 777, 787, A300, A320 as well. All risky, all paid off (well, the 787 still has some work to go...)
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sat Jan 13, 2007 7:59 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 15):
I would think that with the GTF engine, if PW is serious, they need to move forward on a version for the 320 and one for the 737, and do it on spec.

This is how they propose to do it.....

http://www.flightglobal.com/Articles...urbofan+family+for+narrowbody.html

Quote:
"The plan means the GTF, if launched as planned, will benefit from advanced military engine design technology honed through the recently concluded US government-industry Integrated High Performance Turbine Engine Technology (IHPTET) programme, and implemented in engines such as the F119 and later F100s. The initial proof-of-concept demonstrator, due to run for the first time at the end of 2007 initially as a ground-based engine, is based on the PW6000 core and until recently was widely expected to be used by P&W as the basis for the production GTF.

Confirming the move, which signals a return to the strategy that led to the development of engines such as the JT8D turbofan from the military J52 turbojet, P&W director of advanced programmes Simeon Austin says: 'We're looking at how we can use that same core for both commercial and military applications.' As far as the GTF is concerned Austin says: 'The production version is not based on a 6000, it's based around the new core, which we will hope to make use of in other ways. It's a way to address the cost and maximise the benefits.'"
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zvezda
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sat Jan 13, 2007 8:39 pm

This is very cool and it would be great to see PW back in competition. Two suppliers are not enough.

As to wing modification, obviously the pylon would be new. Obviously, some internal structural changes would need to be made to the wing. Would any external changes be needed (other than the pylon)?

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 15):
I would think that with the GTF engine, if PW is serious, they need to move forward on a version for the 320 and one for the 737, and do it on spec.

It's not possible to fit a GTF engine to the 737 because of ground clearance.
 
art
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:54 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 3):
Still remember the proposal from PW recently in which they tooted an all-new highly efficient engine for the A320 (up to 12% lower tsfc), which would increase overall efficiency of the A320 by 6% (since the engine itself would be bigger and heavier).

Quite an enhancement by the sound of it. At last Airbus has a chance to leapfrog a Boeing product for a limited time (until the 737 replacement is launched). Once Boeing shows its hand with Y1, Airbus can then spend some time working out how to match it or surpass it with its NGSA 320 design and thus avoid the design chaos that ensued when it tried to decide how to counter the 787.

BTW, would Boeing be using the same engine in Y1 or might there be a better engine available by the time Y1 gets under way?
 
leelaw
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:10 pm

Quoting Art (Reply 20):
BTW, would Boeing be using the same engine in Y1 or might there be a better engine available by the time Y1 gets under way?

IIRC, both OEMs believe the business case for a new-generation single-aisle aircraft would not be viable unless it offered at least a 10% improvement in fuel burn. In order for Boeing to justify lauching a new platform, they may require a powerplant even more fuel efficient than the first iteration of the GTF proposed for an updated version of the A320.

[Edited 2007-01-13 14:12:10]
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art
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:45 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 21):
IIRC, both OEMs believe the business case for a new-generation single-aisle aircraft would not be viable unless it offered at least a 10% improvement in fuel burn. In order for Boeing to justify lauching a new platform, they may require a powerplant even more fuel efficient than the first iteration of the GTF proposed for an updated version of the A320.

All the more reason for Airbus to adopt the GTF V1 engine for an enhanced A320. Could give the A320 the edge for a number of years at little development cost.
 
slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 2:14 am

Quoting Art (Reply 22):
More reason for Airbus to adopt the GTF V1 engine for an enhanced A320. It could give the A320 the edge for a number of years at little development cost.

Some figures to work with from open sources:

The costs for certifying the A320 family with a new engine and the necessary wing/pylon modifications are estimated to be somewhere in between 0.4 and 0.8bn euro; even if PW isn't willing to partially fund some of that (unlikely given their desire to return 'big' to the civil aviation market), this kind of investment is peanuts really, especially as it would restore the clear superiority of the A320 in its market segment for about half a decade and could be recouped through as few as 50 to 70 sales (about the size of the expected AK order)!

Imagine Airbus manages to go roughly from a 50/50 market split with the 737NG to a 65/35 thanks to it, which is BTW still a rather conservative estimate if indeed the efficiency gap between 737NG and A320 would be between 6 to 8% (the experience with the A346 vs 773 has shown us such an efficiency difference basically renders the less efficient plane almost marginal), it would lead Airbus to quite easily sell 100+ more A320s a YEAR, or a total of 500 extra A320s at least over the period before Y1, meaning this small investment would thus bring in 15 to 20 BN euro of extra revenue...

To put it easily understandable: a simple engine swap on the A320 could pay for the entire A380 program TWICE!

BTW- whoever said the production increase to 36 (+4) A320s from 3 lines by 2010 was simply unsane and certainly not-market driven??? It couldn't be this increase already takes into account the likely higher demand for the A320 thanks to the GFT engine which is apparently presented to key customers, could it???  

[Edited 2007-01-13 18:27:20]
 
zvezda
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 2:26 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 23):
The costs for certifying the A320 family with a new engine and the necessary wing/pylon modifications are estimated to be somewhere in between 0.4 and 0.8bn euro; even if PW isn't willing to partially fund some of that (unlikely given their desire to return 'big' to the civil aviation market), this kind of investment is peanuts really, especially as it would restore the clear superiority of the A320 in its market segment for about half a decade and could be recouped through as few as 50 to 70 sales (about the size of the expected AK order)!

Imagine Airbus manages to go roughly from a 50/50 market split with the 737NG to a 65/35 thanks to it, which is BTW still a rather conservative estimate if indeed the efficiency gap between 737NG and A320 would be between 6 to 8% (the experience with the A346 vs 773 has shown us such an efficiency difference of this kind basically renders the less efficient plane almost marginal), it would lead Airbus to sell 100+ more A320s a YEAR, or a total of almost 500 extra A320s over the period before Y1, meaning this low risk investment could thus bring in 15 to 20 BN euro of extra revenue...

Good analysis so far!

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 23):
To put it easily understandable: a simple engine swap on the A320 could pay for the entire A380 program TWICE!

No. This could bring in 15B euro in revenue, not 15B euro in profit. It might bring in 1B euro in profit and that might not even pay for the late delivery compensation due to the WhaleJet fiasco. Still, it's 1B euro in additional profit that Airbus need right now in order to develop the A350.
 
slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 2:33 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 24):
No. This could bring in 15B euro in revenue, not 15B euro in profit. It might bring in 1B euro in profit and that might not even pay for the late delivery compensation due to the WhaleJet fiasco.

It's actually 15 BN euro of extra cash flow, which is where Airbus funds its development programs from.  Smile
 
Rheinbote
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 2:33 am

An early (say 2010/11) GTF by Pratt would probably have to be based on the PW6000 and would be eclipsed not much later by any new design based on a more advanced core. Also, in one of the recent FLIGHT articles quoted above, P&W indicated that the first commercial GTF following the PW6000-based demo engines (which will be flight-tested using both a 737 and an A320, so it DOES fit under the wings of the former) would probably be in th 18-20klbs thrust league. That seems to point at a Y0.5 or Y0.25 repalcement for the MD80 rather than anything which is CFM56-powered today. Anything based on the F-35's F135 or the F-22's F119 core would end up in the CFM56 thrust league or slightly above though.
 
zvezda
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 2:41 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 25):
It's actually 15 BN euro of extra cash flow, which is where Airbus funds its development programs from.

I wish business were so easy. With that 15B euro will come about 14B euro in costs that must be paid (mostly in advance). This would really yield on the order of 1B euro that could be used for the A350 or WhaleJet programs, not 15B euro.
 
slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 2:48 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 27):
I wish business were so easy. With that 15B euro will come about 14B euro in costs that must be paid (mostly in advance). This would really yield on the order of 1B euro that could be used for the A350 or WhaleJet programs, not 15B euro.

Not even going to explain this one because I know for sure you know better than you pretend here...

BTW- just for the record and actually unrelated to this discussion:
The profit margins on A320 sales are a tiny little bit bigger than 6.6% like you suggest.  yes 
 
zvezda
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:02 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 28):
The profit margins on A320 sales are a tiny little bit bigger than 6.6% like you suggest.

We were talking about very, very rough order of magnitude numbers. I even wrote "on the order of ..." to make that clear. No need to try to add significant figures that weren't there.  Smile
 
ikramerica
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:12 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 19):
It's not possible to fit a GTF engine to the 737 because of ground clearance.

It "wasn't possible" to fit a high bypass turban fan under the 737 wing until it became possible...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:15 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 29):
We were talking about very, very rough order of magnitude numbers. I even wrote "in the order of ..." to make that clear. No need to try to add significant figures that weren't there.

Excuse me?

1/15th IS 6.66% so I haven't added anything at all to your words, I've just put it differently.

Anyhow, what counts here is not so much the extra profit airbus can make from the A320E, but the increase in cash flow which can be expected from additional A320E sales.
 
art
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:21 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 30):
Quoting Zvezda (Reply 19):
It's not possible to fit a GTF engine to the 737 because of ground clearance.

It "wasn't possible" to fit a high bypass turban fan under the 737 wing until it became possible...

What happened to make this possible? Did the fan get smaller or did the u/c get taller? Or a bit of both?
 
slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:22 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 30):
It "wasn't possible" to fit a high bypass turban fan under the 737 wing until it became possible...

If I understand the technical aspects correctly, the GTF is going to have a much bigger fan than the CFM56 and more importantly it is going to weigh much more, making it impossible to hang it out in front of the wing like the CFM56 engines on the 737, unless Boeing decides on extremely expensive and important wing, landing gear and weight/trim modifications... at which point it becomes questionable if parity with the A320 can be regained and more so even if it would be worth to spend so much money on yet another upgrade for the 737 so shortly before Y1????
 
slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:28 am

Quoting Art (Reply 32):
What happened to make this possible? Did the fan get smaller or did the u/c get taller? Or a bit of both?

Boeing tweaked the structure of the wing and plane and hang it out in front of the wing (just have a look at where the engines hang on the 737)....

It looks increasingly unlikely an even bigger and much heavier engine can be put in that position as well, unless Boeing adds a lot of strengthening to the wing, at which point the advantages of the GTF are probably completely being cancelled out.

Just look at how the modest modifications to the wing/pylon of the A320 (which is unarguably much better suited than the 737) are already said to erode the expected efficiency gains of the GTF by 50% from 12% for the engine, to just 6% for the plane/engine combination....

[Edited 2007-01-13 19:29:37]
 
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Stitch
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:32 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 31):
Anyhow, what counts here is not so much the extra profit airbus can make from the A320E, but the increase in cash flow which can be expected from additional A320E sales.

But that cash flow can't just be used for anything Airbus wishes. A320 suppliers are going to want to be paid for the components they provide to Airbus to build all those new A320s so while there will certainly be cash available from the profits each new order generates, the majority of that cash flow will be both years away (as Airbus burns through their current backlog) plus much of it will need to be spent now to support an increase in production capacity both at Airbus and their suppliers. So, if anything, the program will be cashflow negative at first.

This, of course, assumes Airbus can add an extra 100 A320s a year. Two per week is not exactly something one just "does". It would be a pretty heavy ramp-up at TLS, unless Airbus is willing to shift some A320 production to XFW or increase the Chinese plant.

This strikes me more as a way for Airbus to keep the A320 program strong, if not even relevant, in the face of the coming of Y1 more then a "cash panacea" that will shower Airbus with "free money" to spend wherever they want.
 
slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:46 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 35):
This, of course, assumes Airbus can add an extra 100 A320s a year. Two per week is not exactly something one just "does". It would be a pretty heavy ramp-up at TLS, unless Airbus is willing to shift some A320 production to XFW or increase the Chinese plant.

If you look at the production ramp up for the A320 which is planned between January this year and end 2009, you'll find it actually adds capacity for 96 extra planes a year....

When first announced, some said Airbus was crazy and would just burn through its backlog, yet seeing Airbus is silently promoting an A320 with a GTF to key customers and reading the expected advantages of such a plane over any competitor, the ramp up in production merely seems to be creating the needed extra production capacity in time to cope with the expected surge in demand for a plane which takes 2/3rd of all sales in its market segment.
 
gbfra
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:52 am

The day the A380 was officially launched French and Germans at EADS concluded that if ever a second assembly line for the A320 was needed in Europe it would be built in Hamburg (where the A318, A319 and A321 are already assembled).

I have not heard that this agreement does no longer exist, but a restructuring of Airbus in the coming years ("Power 8") might change more things than many people are now expecting.
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
Rheinbote
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 3:57 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 36):
seeing Airbus is silently promoting an A320 with a GTF to key customers

Just where do you see that Airbus is doing so?  scratchchin 
 
slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 4:06 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 38):
Just where do you see that Airbus is doing so?

The apparent presentation of a new engine design for the A320 is the very subject of this discussion, Rheinbote.

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
SINGAPORE (MarketWatch) -- AirAsia Bhd (5099.KU) will exercise an option for 50 Airbus A320s in the "very near future", the discount carrier's chief executive Tony Fernandes said Friday in a speech to a corporate event in Singapore.

Asked to define the "very near future", Mr. Fernandes said AirAsia will wait to see a new engine design for the A320s before exercising the option.
 
leelaw
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 4:11 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 38):
Quoting Slz396 (Reply 36):
seeing Airbus is silently promoting an A320 with a GTF to key customers

Just where do you see that Airbus is doing so?

Presumably from the somewhat oblique remarks of Mr. Fernandez quoted in the threadstarter. Forgive him, he tends to get very excited when he thinks he's divined yet another "silver bullet" which can be loaded in Airbus' pistol.  Smile
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Rheinbote
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 4:14 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 39):
Asked to define the "very near future", Mr. Fernandes said AirAsia will wait to see a new engine design for the A320s before exercising the option.

I fail to spot any word on GTFs there. They may just be talking about the Tech56 insertion package.

[Edited 2007-01-13 20:14:46]
 
slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 4:20 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 41):
I fail to spot any word on GTFs there. They may just be talking about the Tech56 insertion package.

Your guess is as good as mine really, which is what makes these kind of discussions on what exactly is meant with these cryptic words so interesting, really.

If the idea Mr. Fernandez is talking about 'just' the Tech56 makes you sleep better, then by all means don't think otherwise...
 
zvezda
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 4:39 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 31):
1/15th IS 6.66% so I haven't added anything at all to your words, I've just put it differently.

What you added was precision that is not available. For the sake of clarity, I'll use another example. Suppose we were talking about a very rough estimate of 11 to 15 B euro rather than 15 to 20B euro. Then, if I wrote that profit is roughly on the order of 1B, not 11B, you might have complained that the profit margin is not exactly 9.0909090909090909091 percent. You don't get to add precision like that, turning my number (one significant figure) into a more precise number (whether two or twenty signficant figures).

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 31):
Anyhow, what counts here is not so much the extra profit airbus can make from the A320E, but the increase in cash flow which can be expected from additional A320E sales.

No. You have that exactly backwards.

Quoting Art (Reply 32):
What happened to make this possible? Did the fan get smaller or did the u/c get taller? Or a bit of both?

They made the nacelle non-circular, flattened on the bottom, and other tricks. There are no more tricks available that would allow such a large fan to be fitted to a 737.
 
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zeke
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 4:52 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 41):

I fail to spot any word on GTFs there. They may just be talking about the Tech56 insertion package.

Is Tech56 the same as the Leap56 ?
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
slz396
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 5:11 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 43):
Suppose we were talking about a very rough estimate of 11 to 15 B euro rather than 15 to 20B euro. Then, if I wrote that profit is roughly on the order of 1B, not 1.1B, you might have complained that the profit margin is not exactly 9.0909090909090909091 percent.

Who's assuming things for which he hasn't any proof, now?

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 43):
What you added was precision that is not available. You don't get to add precision like that, turning my number (one significant figure) into a more precise number (whether two or twenty significant figures).

In fact; 6.6, 6.66 or even 6.66666666666% is still less precise than 1/15th, but don't let it bother you. From a past encounter over efficiency gains expressed by means of a formula which is merely a simple fraction, I still remember calculus just doesn't seem to be your thing for some reason.
 
Rheinbote
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 6:31 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 44):
Is Tech56 the same as the Leap56 ?

It is my understanding that the Leap56 technology program is aimed at a CFM56 successor. My fingers typed Tech56 when I was thinking about a technology package which could be inserted more short-term.
 
Devilfish
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 7:03 am

A reminder lest everybody get so ahead of themselves, that US Government involvement in the IHPTET programme would mean that American companies are the intended prime beneficiaries, and therefore would not let undue early advantage resulting from that effort be enjoyed by others.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
art
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 9:52 am

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 47):
US Government involvement in the IHPTET programme would mean that American companies are the intended prime beneficiaries, and therefore would not let undue early advantage resulting from that effort be enjoyed by others.

Sorry, but I don't know about the IHPTET program. I guess from the main content of this thread (A320 may get a new engine that can't be used on 737) that you might be suggesting that exports of a new US engine will be discouraged/made difficult since Airbus would be the beneficiary.
 
atmx2000
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RE: A320E In The Pipeline, AK Lining For Launch?

Sun Jan 14, 2007 10:49 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 31):
Anyhow, what counts here is not so much the extra profit airbus can make from the A320E, but the increase in cash flow which can be expected from additional A320E sales.

You might be able to play some games with cash flow if you can delay payments to suppliers, but in the end the profit is what matters. And given the length of Airbus design cycles, they have to be careful about expending significant amounts of resources on design and certification only to see the revenue squeezed by competition against a new Boeing widebody.

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 47):
A reminder lest everybody get so ahead of themselves, that US Government involvement in the IHPTET programme would mean that American companies are the intended prime beneficiaries, and therefore would not let undue early advantage resulting from that effort be enjoyed by others.



Quoting Art (Reply 48):
Sorry, but I don't know about the IHPTET program. I guess from the main content of this thread (A320 may get a new engine that can't be used on 737) that you might be suggesting that exports of a new US engine will be discouraged/made difficult since Airbus would be the beneficiary.

I think it unlikely that the US would prevent an engine maker from selling engines for an Airbus aircraft.
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