|Quoting Art (Reply 22):
More reason for Airbus to adopt the GTF V1 engine for an enhanced A320. It could give the A320 the edge for a number of years at little development cost.
Some figures to work with from open sources:
The costs for certifying the A320 family with a new engine and the necessary wing/pylon modifications are estimated to be somewhere in between 0.4 and 0.8bn euro; even if PW
isn't willing to partially fund some of that (unlikely given their desire to return 'big' to the civil aviation market), this kind of investment is peanuts really, especially as it would restore the clear superiority of the A320 in its market segment for about half a decade and could be recouped through as few as 50 to 70 sales (about the size of the expected AK
Imagine Airbus manages to go roughly from a 50/50 market split with the 737NG to a 65/35 thanks to it, which is BTW still a rather conservative estimate if indeed the efficiency gap between 737NG and A320 would be between 6 to 8% (the experience with the A346 vs 773 has shown us such an efficiency difference basically renders the less efficient plane almost marginal), it would lead Airbus to quite easily sell 100+ more A320s a YEAR, or a total of 500 extra A320s at least over the period before Y1, meaning this small investment would thus bring in 15 to 20 BN
euro of extra revenue...
To put it easily understandable: a simple engine swap on the A320 could pay for the entire A380 program TWICE!
BTW- whoever said the production increase to 36 (+4) A320s from 3 lines by 2010 was simply unsane and certainly not-market driven??? It couldn't be this increase already takes into account the likely higher demand for the A320 thanks to the GFT engine which is apparently presented to key customers, could it???
[Edited 2007-01-13 18:27:20]