kaitak
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Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 2:43 am

Okely, dokely folks and welcome to the Irish quarter of Springfield for the fourth Irish aviation thread, where you find us at Moe's Irish Bar for a trad session with Poitin on the bodhran (and probably on the poitin too!), Kaitak on the Fiddle (that's a capital "F", thank you!), Shamrock350 on the harmonica and everyone joining in for an Irish jig; yee-ha, sleasceim trasna, cuig, se, seacht ... And there's more than a few in Irish aviation to lead us a merry dance.

Anyway, high on the hill is, C Montgomery O'Leary, watching the lives of the little people with contempt, particularly that guy in EI sector, Homer Mannion, as he tries vainly to develop a sense of direction ...

Excellent, excellent ...

Well, after a start like that, I'm tired out. Mmmm ... donuts!

Anyway, here we are, embarking on our fourth trek into the heart of Irish aviation; obviously caught in a forcefield, because we have full power (and we're clearly very warped), but we're not getting anywhere.

What's the wishlist for 2007? Well, it hardly matters; whatever it is will probably not happen before it's too late. But, here we go anyway.

- Number one: new long haul fleet. Please, preferably while the A330 is still in production;
- Number two: new transatlantic access rights;
- Number three: new Asian routes, particularly if No2 falls flat
- Number three: bring forward action on T3
- Number four: long haul parking stands, particularly next year
- Number five: airport competition
- Number six: runway extension for long haul routes
- Number seven: cargo capacity

In other words, the same old stuff, over and over again. I guess No8 would be leadership. That's the thing we really need; a combination of leadership and vision. Looking forward; moving ahead, being able to identify the potential, and the obstacles - whether situations, circumstances, or indeed people.

I've always thought aviation policy should be like the difference between an old, underpowered plane - say an old C-135, rolling along - seemingly forever - and only really getting airborne when the runway end comes into view, barely missing the boundary fence, whereas what we need is the 757 effect; back of the seat, full power, climbing away at 16 degrees and into the wild blue.

We can do that. There's nothing Singapore or Hong Kong or any of the tiger economies can do that we can't; the difference is vision and interest. The big question, I guess is, how many opportunities are we willing to let slip through our fingers, before we decide to change.
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:02 am

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
- Number one: new long haul fleet. Please, preferably while the A330 is still in production;

I don't see why EI don't lease in some 330s (hard in the current market) or 340s to expand for now and then place an order for 787s for future expansion. Makes more sense than buying 330s.

Also, if the new 330s are having lie flat in J and the rest of the fleet is not being upgraded to the same, it makes me think that an order is on the cards.

Quoting Kaitak (Thread starter):
- Number two: new transatlantic access rights;

What rights does EI have at the moment (transatlantic and other) that they are not using? I woudn't mind seeing a list...

Also, what is going on with the Gold Circle Club Lounges? I heard somewhere they're planning to ditch them - just a rumour or what?
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
kaitak
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:12 am

I think they may end up having to get A340s as a short term fix; I think there are a few coming off lease, for example from AC and CI. I know there are two Air Madrid A332s with GE engines available now; probably not in great condition, but a good D check and a lick of paint should see it right.

One of the problems with long haul flights, to Asia in particular, is that as fine an aircraft as the 332 is, it doesn't have the legs of a 340 or a 777, BUT of course, it has the performance to get out of DUB - which the 340/777 don't. Another 1500' of runway at DUB would see the A340 right at DUB. The big problem for the 332 is coming back from BKK; that's a good thirteen hours to DUB, which is right on the edge of the 332's performance (the range in the Great Circle Mapper shows still air range, so it doesn't account for headwinds or Indian ATC, which can see an aircraft being stuck at a much lower FL than desirable. And there are some issues relating to flying twins over the Himalayas, which I confess I don't understand fully.

As for US rights, the airline has flown to MCO and BWI under special authority; it gave up BWI after 9/11 and MCO, because it didn't have much of a J Class or cargo market, although as a route, it was quite popular. It's all tied to the SNN stop and the limit of four destinations. If that could be changed, it would be great, but unfortunately, all of this is a hostage to the wider EU/US talks. Both sides could agree to give Ireland greater access without any effect on negotiations, but I don't see that happening. And with the Americans now aiming for a deal by June, I think the chances of EI getting increased access for the Summer are slight.

Incidentally, for those interested in the 787 and specific info about the various models, here's an interesting guide:

http://theaviationspecialist.com/787_family.gif
 
EI321
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 4:03 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
I know there are two Air Madrid A332s with GE engines available now; probably not in great condition, but a good D check and a lick of paint should see it right.

Both ex-Canada 3000 planes manufactured 1998, probably not due a D check for a while. I doubt EI will be taking any more A330s until 2008, they have enough on their plate with the two on their way.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 2):
Another 1500' of runway at DUB would see the A340 right at DUB.

Its not even being considered, no point in keeping dragging it up, it wont happen!
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 4:23 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 1):
Also, if the new 330s are having lie flat in J and the rest of the fleet is not being upgraded to the same, it makes me think that an order is on the cards.

I have been thinking the same. Aer Lingus are really only adding newish seats and power points on the current A330s so they are up to the same sort of standard as the new A330s. At least it shows that Aer Lingus know they can sometimes have an inconsistent service. I think an order in the next three months is likely but we haven't heard that EI is still talking to A and B have we?

Would Aer Lingus really consider the A340-600? I hope so it could be a great choice for short term needs seeing as the A330s is in such high demand. Am I right in thinking that an A346 could operate out of DUB to JFK, ORD and BOS without runway issues? If so than it would be great for EI! A few "old" CX A346s would be interesting and there would be no need to change much cabin wise, EI and CX cabin designs are similar, greens and blues.

Here's a image of the current Aer Lingus Premier class on EI-EWR.

http://www.planepictures.net/netshow.php?id=430565

Heres an image of what could be the new lie flat seats form Simca Aero Seat.


Nice update isn't it!
 
kaitak
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 4:39 am

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 4):
A few "old" CX A346s would be interesting and there would be no need to change much cabin wise, EI and CX cabin designs are similar, greens and blues.

I was thinking about these aircraft myself; indeed, there's a thread running on them at the moment (started by yours truly) and it appears that CX has actually extended the lease on these, so they won't be homeless for quite a while.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 3):
Its not even being considered, no point in keeping dragging it up, it wont happen!

Fine; you may well be right, but it is SYMPTOMATIC of what is wrong with aviation policy in this country - bad decisions, bad oversight, bad planning and people who should be speaking up not doing so. We've already seen SQ, the bluest of blue chip airlines, expressing a wish to operate here, but saying, effectively, that without a runway extension, it's a no go. We know that the new runway is unlikely to be operational until 2013 (it was 2012), so it's six years we have to go with a short runway. You know, we're not talking about 747s at MTOW here; we're talking about a runway sufficient to allow long haul nonstops by medium sized aircraft - A340s and 777s. We know what the problem is NOW, but the key issue is, we should not be having this discussion at all. This should have been acted upon years ago, but again - no vision on the DAA's part, no interest at govt level and so, we lose out and then, people wonder why Ireland is losing its competitiveness.

OK, rant over. We'll let it go for now, but it has to be done. I don't mean to be a pain in the backside, because I know it's getting a bit annoying, but I'm going to do my damndest to get it done.
 
EI321
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 4:42 am

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 4):
Would Aer Lingus really consider the A340-600? I hope so it could be a great choice for short term needs seeing as the A330s is in such high demand

Highly unlikely, Rolls Royce engines, etc and very large. Would only be useful on the JFK route. And there are none availible currently.
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 4:45 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 6):
Highly unlikely, Rolls Royce engines, etc and very large. Would only be useful on the JFK route. And there are none availible currently.

I thought CX was getting rid of some in 2008. They are quite young A340s too but I can see the problem with a new engine type and it is a very large aircraft. Even with a three class config.

EDIT:
sorry just saw Kaitak's post about the A340s. They would look nice in EI colours but thats not enough for EI to order them  

[Edited 2007-01-14 20:48:19]
 
BrianDromey
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D

Mon Jan 15, 2007 4:59 am

I think both the 340 and long haul expansion are unlikely for the moment. The US accounts for a large chunk of EIs profits, usually ~30% IIRC. Now if I had falling year on year loads on t/a ops, more competition and oppertunities to the east would I have assigned the two new 330s to the US, eh No.

Fathermore I dont see why the services to SIN and BKK, etc have to be direct. Surely they could be routed through somewhere in the mid-east or somewhere like ATH or ROM? If and when these services were shown to be a success they runway would be expanded. I think were in a chickena and egg situation here. Just out of interest, how long do SQs aircraft typically stay on the ground for at its european destinations? I really think that the services will have to be launched via somewhere like DXB, ROM, ATH, mabye even Cairo, before the extra 1500 feet is added.

Actually, Ive had a thought, Im corrrect in thinking that SNNs runways are long enough. So maybe they could be routed through there. PPL from DUB to the US dont seem to mind the stop too much, and most would much prefer to have the option of sitting in a seat or looking around a duty free shop for an hout than taking a flight to LHR, doing the terminal change thing and connecting there, right? Or am I totally wrong? Perhaps a routing like DUB-SNN-BKK-DUB. At least its direct in one direction.

Brian.

[Edited 2007-01-14 21:04:27]
Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:16 am

I think Aer Lingus really should have put the new A330s on routes to CPT or new routes to Asia. I dont think saying "we had to wait for OS" is good enough because they must have known that OS was unlikely this year because all they did with the new A330s was use them to boost current routes, which seems a waste if load factor is dropping.

Although, Aer Lingus must have something planned for 2008 if they have a further two A330s ready but it seems strange that DM would say they have 2 more A330s ready when we have heard nothing from Airbus or Aer Lingus. Maybe it will be announced with the "big" order?
 
EI787
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D

Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:23 am

Reading The Taoiseach's itinerary for his Middle East Trip, I noticed that he is due to visit Sama Airlines ( http://www.flysama.com ) at 12.30pm tomorrow.

Why is he visiting them?

http://www.taoiseach.ie/index.asp?locID=404&docID=3140

[Edited 2007-01-14 21:23:36]
 
planemanofnz
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:27 am

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 8):
ATH or ROM

First of all I assume that when you say 'ROM' you really mean 'FCO.' Secondly, let's face it, EI's product is nothing compared to the majors so the only advantage they would have on the route would be a non stop flight if it did go ahead. Why would you want to stop in ATH, FCO or any other airport for that matter and go head to head with SQ and TG?

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 8):
Fathermore I dont see why the services to SIN and BKK, etc have to be direct.

It defeats the purpose of EI going to Asia in the first place. I and I am sure I can speak for most people on hear who travel from the East to Ireland regularly, we want a NON STOP flight to Dublin from the Far East. We already have to chop and change in LHR, FRA, AMS, CDG, DXB e.t.c. Aswell as this, it is common sense to know that if you have an inferior product and your route is in direct then you will drive away the high yeilding Business Class passengers unless the service is Daily. Remember, we are talking about the far east here (NRT, HKG, SIN, BKK, KUL) NOT the middle east (BAH, DOH, DXB, AUH.)

I also find it hard to believe that Air Asia would ever fly to Dublin from Kuala Lumpur. If the route goes ahead the DUB traffic I assume would all be O&D Traffic with either DXB or AUH. Nonetheless, very good news indeed.

What are the chances of EY coming to DUB in the near future does everyone think?

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 8):
mabye even Cairo

Oh my god no! Cairo is a route which is 320 size. SQ already fill the gap left for long haul nicely but it is only a small gap and this is reflected in SQ's decision to fly to CAI via DXB.

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 8):
somewhere like DXB

Again a big no/no. Going head to head with the likes of EK and SQ on the route is a stupid idea. Their frequencies, service and products will always rule out EI as an option (for Business Class and some Economy Class PAX that is.)

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 4):
Would Aer Lingus really consider the A340-600? I

No. Too long and awkward for them. If an A340 was to be considered I should think it would be the 300 series, however, I think at the moment 777's or 330's are the only options EI would seriously consider.

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 8):
Actually, Ive had a thought, Im corrrect in thinking that SNNs runways are long enough. So maybe they could be routed through there.

No. As Kaitak said earlier in the thread, the issue here is not runway length for BKK, it is range of the 330.
 
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OA260
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:45 am

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 4):
Here's a image of the current Aer Lingus Premier class on EI-EWR.

Nice photo, glad they kept the unusual carpet but i guess this will go with the any new interior.

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 8):
PPL from DUB to the US dont seem to mind the stop too much

Alot of people hate the SNN stop especially on the return after an overnight flight , you just wanna get home !!!And some stops are 2 hours long.

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 8):
Surely they could be routed through somewhere in the mid-east or somewhere like ATH

Yes that would be great ...well for me anyway LOL. Id love to fly DUB-ATH on a A330. If the flight was just a 45 min refuelling stop and you remained on the A/C then I dont think people would mind that much. Its not as if you have to change A/C or terminals etc.. As above JFK to DUB is not that long so people want a non stop but to BKK its 12-13 hours so it would need one.

Quoting Planemanofnz (Reply 11):
Why would you want to stop in ATH, FCO or any other airport for that matter and go head to head with SQ and TG?

Reasons above....it would be a refuel stop only so would not be competing or taking on passengers at ATH.

Re: Air Asia I havnt heard about this !!! Is there talk of a DUB to KUL??? Also any news on the Air Gibraltar flight ???
 
EI321
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:59 am

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 7):
I thought CX was getting rid of some in 2008. They are quite young A340s too but I can see the problem with a new engine type and it is a very large aircraft. Even with a three class config.

The three A346 at CX were due to be returned to ILFC in on these dates:
B-HQA: Lease expiry 12/07
B-HQB: Lease expiry 11/08
B-HQC: Lease expiry 9/08

but CX have recently extended the leases for a few more yrs.
 
BrianDromey
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D

Mon Jan 15, 2007 6:09 am

Quoting Planemanofnz (Reply 11):
First of all I assume that when you say 'ROM' you really mean 'FCO.'

I regard ROM to mean teh Rome area in general, just like LON and NCY do for their miltiple airfield cities. Weather you consider CIA a "Rome" airport in teh true sense of the word is up to you. PLus FCO is a bit nondescript.

Quoting Planemanofnz (Reply 11):
It defeats the purpose of EI going to Asia in the first place. I and I am sure I can speak for most people on hear who travel from the East to Ireland regularly, we want a NON STOP flight to Dublin from the Far East. We already have to chop and change in LHR, FRA, AMS, CDG, DXB e.t.c.

Ya, and I want a friday afternoon/evening NON-STOP service LBA-ORK, but theres no such thing, so I "chop and change" at LHR too. That tripples the length of the journey. But we make do.

As the current mess that is DUB stands there are not a whole heap of options for EI. We can have a DIRECT service from DUB(but not "non-stop"), or a change in LHR, FRA, etc. Changes that add at least 3 hrs to a journey, but likely more.

I only suggested those cities because of their geographic locations, not because I believe there is a market there for travel father east.

Finally, it is my experience that EIs crews are up there with the best of them. Certainly BA and EK. OK the IFE in Y and the J class in general need to be addressed, but there are indications that this is about to happen. Many of the so called "five-star" airlines hype their service and quality, when they dont deliver it makes them look all the worse. With EI you get hospitality and caring, there are not too many frills, and the entertainment systems may not be the most advanced, but there is comfort safety and a decent fare.

Realistically how many people would choose a DUB-LHR-HGK/BKK/SIN over a direct service which made a 40 min stop in SNN or somewhere in the mid east? Yes fighting through AMS/FRA/LHR is naturally mcuh mre appealing than a short stop in the outward leg of the journey and a non-stop retrurn flight.

Just my  twocents . Realistically until passengers and airlines are SCREAMING for it the runway wont be extended.
Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)
 
kaitak
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 6:25 am

I'm sorry Brian, but it just doesn't make sense to fly 120 miles west in order to fly east. I'd certainly choose AMS over a flight that went in the wrong direction. Why should EI have to do this, when all that it takes is a few hundred feet of runway; it's not a question of "suggesting to" or "asking" the DAA now; it's a question of "informing them of their decision to do so". Or else.

Either we have an airport which is a catalyst for growth or we don't; Dublin can be that, but it needs "pitchfork mode" to achieve it. I don't see why we should settle for anything less than we should have. Does Holland? Does Germany, Denmark, Finland or anywhere else in Europe. No; why should we? WHO THE HELL are the DAA to tell us that our ambitions to develop links to Asia should be trimmed back because of their lack of vision or lack of willingness to put the appropriate facilities in place. That's why I say that we need the interest and determination at govt level. And we don't have it yet.

We can have our cake, if we had the vision to do so; yes, I know I promised not to say another word about the runway, but that's what we have to do. We could have a direct flight to a major Asian hub. When you consider the numbers that are going through LHR, AMS and even DXB, that really is not unreasonable.

And yes, EI is well capable of raising its game to the necessary level; a bit of IFE, a bit of "pizazz" and it can be a very popular carrier on the route.

As for aircraft; sure, the A340 is not ideal and pound for pound, the 777 is a better machine, but the EI crews are Airbus trained and EI already has CFM56s on its short haul fleet, so the A340 is the right machine. Sure, the 777 might just stretch to DUB-BKK - and I certainly wouldn't object to 777s, but what bothers me is the "comfort" or even "resignation" people have towards issues which can be quite easily changed, if the interest is there.

This is why Dublin Airport needs new management very quickly; my personal view is that the DAA should be given a list of objectives which it is to achieve over an 18-24 month period; if it succeeds, it may be permitted to retain control of the existing terminals. If not, it will be confined to airfield management and the management of terminals will be put out to tender.
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 6:33 am

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 14):
Finally, it is my experience that EIs crews are up there with the best of them. Certainly BA and EK. Many of the so called "five-star" airlines hype their service and quality, when they dont deliver it makes them look all the worse. With EI you get hospitality and caring, there are not too many frills, and the entertainment systems may not be the most advanced, but there is comfort safety and a decent fare.

Without meaning any disrespect - in the last 12 months, I have flown on QF, BA, CX, AY, FR, EI, AA, SAS and Icelandair in both Business and Economy.

The crews on EI aren't bad, but they are not in the same league as QF, BA, CX and AY. On EI, they do their job, not more, not less. They range from somewhat interested, to completely disinterested. On the other airlines, they are attentive, chatty, happy to have a laugh, and just overall seem to have a better attitude.

Also, the check-in staff at DUB range from superb, to unbelievably stupid - "No, we can't check your bags on your next sector with BA - we don't do that"... erm hello, same alliance! Contrasting with another time when I didn't ask and she offered to check them through for me. Big difference in service standards, and it shouldn't happen.

I will agree - EI are comfortable, safe and the fares are very reasonable - but the "5 star" airlines have those reputations for the very reason that they are head and shoulders above the rest.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
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OA260
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 6:35 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 15):
I'm sorry Brian, but it just doesn't make sense to fly 120 miles west in order to fly east. I'd certainly choose AMS over a flight that went in the wrong direction. Why should EI have to do this, when all that it takes is a few hundred feet of runway

I agree Kaitak its totally crazy to do that but with DAA I wouldnt put anything past them. Someone needs a kick up the arse . Its like a dictatorship they are hijacking the whole countries development and prosperity because they wont get the tarmac machines out!!!

I think its a Irish kind of thing. No offence but its like the Broadband here which I still cant get because Eircom have been saying for the last 3 years that they are going to lay new cable. Ive been waiting since August for a telephone line !!!
 
al2637
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 6:52 am

We always seem to blame the DAA for everything... I think the fault for most of the problems is the dithering by various governments over the years.

Runway extension is not going to happen. It simply is not justifiable for a few flights a week, especially with a new runway on the way anyway.

Making a technical stop on the way really wouldn't be a big deal. It's NOT the same as having to connect in LHR, AMS, FRA etc.
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 6:59 am

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 18):
Making a technical stop on the way really wouldn't be a big deal. It's NOT the same as having to connect in LHR, AMS, FRA etc.

No, it's quite different... AC started having a tech stop after 9/11 in HNL on the way to YVR from SYD. It was one hour all up. They did it as pax didn't like having to go through US security for a transit stop. One hour. Not so bad.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
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OA260
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 7:04 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 19):
No, it's quite different... AC started having a tech stop after 9/11 in HNL on the way to YVR from SYD. It was one hour all up. They did it as pax didn't like having to go through US security for a transit stop. One hour. Not so bad.

Yeah I agree with that also but DUB is the capital of the nation not SNN so they should both be equal length and when this SNN stopover finally dies DUB will be the only long haul airport in the Republic!!! Why wait til the last minute , do it NOW
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 7:07 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 20):
Yeah I agree with that also but DUB is the capital of the nation not SNN so they should both be equal length and when this SNN stopover finally dies DUB will be the only long haul airport in the Republic!!! Why wait til the last minute , do it NOW

I agree with you 100% of course - a tech stop or whatever is hardly an efficient use of resources. It's only extending a runway - you'd think it was rocket science the way people carry on about it.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
BrianDromey
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 7:55 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 15):
I'm sorry Brian, but it just doesn't make sense to fly 120 miles west in order to fly east. I'd certainly choose AMS over a flight that went in the wrong direction. Why should EI have to do this, when all that it takes is a few hundred feet of runway; it's not a question of "suggesting to" or "asking" the DAA now; it's a question of "informing them of their decision to do so". Or else.

I fully realise that its bonkers and off the wall, and I also realise that the 330 wouldn't really have the legs for BKK/HKG, etc. So this is a largely academic discussion here. What I Will say is this. There are many people who connect through CDG/LHR/AMS to go to the states. Now there are various reasons for this, but it does happen, so going west before going east is merely a reversal of what we've already been doing for years!

Im sure Ill be slated for this but anyways, Im curious so I had a dig around to see what the performance of the 777/340 might be like out of DUB. Boeing have a nice few graphs and such for 777 performance. So I got out my ruler and off I went. (Plus Im basing assumptions on 0/28: 2,637m, Im making the dangerous assumption that they actually know the length of their runways! boggled  Wink

My other assumption is that the 777-200 "High Gross Weight Model" Is the 777-200ER? and that DUB is at sea level, pretty close, theres no wind either and temp at STD+15 C)

Were talking somewhere in the region of about 520,000 pounds gross weight
which translates into ~7750 nautical miles.
SIN ~6968 nautical Miles
BKK ~6144 Nautical Miles
HKG ~6120 Nautical Miles

Im not too sure about payload but it appears to be in the 300000 pounds range. Perhaps someone with more knowledge of the 777 could do a better job than I have, but I think its more likely to be optimistic than realistic, but we'll see. Interestingly the 7772LR would ahve about 100,000 pounds extra of payload under the same condtions and distances.

Plus there are winds, air traffic control and a whole load of other variables to be taken into account, most of whih I havent the slightest idea of!

Unfortunately Airbus does not have such info on its website that I can see.

In short if EI wanted to go seriously east from DUB they could,but they would need the -200LR for relaible operations, IFE, and most importantly a decent payload. I suppose it could work though, 777-200ERs for the t/a ops and LR's for farther afield.

Brian
__________________________________________________________________
Data from: http://www.boeing.com/commercial/airports/777.htm
http://gc.kls2.com/
http://www.dublinairport.com/about-us/media-centre/facts-figures.html
Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)
 
rineanna
Posts: 764
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 9:00 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 20):
and when this SNN stopover finally dies DUB will be the only long haul airport in the Republic!!!

Not if Ulrick McEvaddy has his way at Knock: http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0114/knock.html

Plus, I do believe EI promised that they'd keep one daily flight to JFK and Boston at SNN regardless of the state of the o/s.

On another note, no wonder we're flying through the threads; This one's been open an hour or so and were already up to 23 posts!!!!!!Not that I'm complaining  biggrin   bigthumbsup 
 
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OA260
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 9:12 am

Quoting Rineanna (Reply 23):
Plus, I do believe EI promised that they'd keep one daily flight to JFK and Boston at SNN regardless of the state of the o/s.

Ok but what happens when eveyone wants the direct flight and because of it the one that stops in SNN doesnt fill up ?? They will be forced to drop the SNN stop. It may not be a problem in high season but in low season it may become an issue. SNN may become a summer route only. I know it sounds a bit off the wall but if we went back 10 years and talked about whats happening today no one would believe us either. I see SNN as a LCC airport in future and charters for Irish tourists to the Canaries etc....
 
kaitak
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:09 pm

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 18):
Runway extension is not going to happen. It simply is not justifiable for a few flights a week, especially with a new runway on the way anyway.

You may well be right (about its likelihood), but those "few flights a week" are to very important new markets - markets which the govt is apparently trying to target for new opportunities. Also, in an age of much greater awareness about environmental issues,the ability of long haul aircraft (even those to the US) to take off at derated power will be an attractive consequence of a longer runway. The new runway won't be open until 2013, so what we're effectively saying is that it's acceptable to limit our route options until then and worse still, that it's acceptable for the airport authority to dictate what major markets are accessible from Ireland.

As for stopping in the middle east, sure, it's not a problem, but when virtually every other competing market can accommodate nonstop flights (name any other that can't?), it IS an issue.

It's all about comfort; we seem to be comfortable with the idea of limiting our potential and sure, if we're comfortable with that, fine. We'll be dependant on one stop flights; we'll tolerate having to fly through other destinations, we'll take on the chin the fact that we're less competitive than other countries. No skin off my nose, at the end of the day. Or we turn around, perform a complete culture change and say, "no, this will not stand". Our choice. No one's going to do it for us, if we don't have the interest.

In other aviation news today, the DAA is reporting that it can't guarantee slots for all of the flights that want to operate to Dublin this Summer. More on the whole slot allocation issue.

And Knock wants US flights; what about the US bilateral issues there? Didn't we discuss some time ago that NOC, KIR and ORK could have US flights, but only if operated by Irish aircraft?
 
planemanofnz
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Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2005 4:46 pm

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 5:21 pm

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 14):
I regard ROM to mean teh Rome area in general, just like LON and NCY do for their miltiple airfield cities. Weather you consider CIA a "Rome" airport in teh true sense of the word is up to you. PLus FCO is a bit nondescript.

Look, I hardly think it is worth mentioning CIA for EI. That is just ridiculous.

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 14):
Ya, and I want a friday afternoon/evening NON-STOP service LBA-ORK, but theres no such thing, so I "chop and change" at LHR too. That tripples the length of the journey.

Two things :

1.) This is a SHORT haul flight. Not a LONG haul flight.
2.) What are the populations of these cities?

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 14):
But we make do.

Yea, because the market that you are talking about is low yeilding and un-attractive to EI.

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 14):
As the current mess that is DUB stands there are not a whole heap of options for EI. We can have a DIRECT service from DUB(but not "non-stop"), or a change in LHR, FRA, etc. Changes that add at least 3 hrs to a journey, but likely more.

Yes and most would be willing to make a 3 hour wait in LHR/FRA/AMS/CDG just so they can have a good product on the long haul sector of their flight from the east on airlines like SQ and CX. Business travellers are hardly going to pick EI's outdated Business seat with non daily schedules with a stop somewhere in the middle as opposed to flying via somewhere in Europe meaning they have superior product, superior FFP and in most cases superior scheduling.

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 14):
Finally, it is my experience that EIs crews are up there with the best of them.

Have you actually been on a SQ or CX flight?

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 14):
Realistically how many people would choose a DUB-LHR-HGK/BKK/SIN

Um I would. Especially if EI wanted me to go through an even dirtier, smaller or inferior airport than LHR like CAI, ATH, TLV or 'ROM.'

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 14):
40 min stop in SNN or somewhere in the mid east?

Read the posts! This isn't about runway length at DUB! It is about range of the A330! SNN-BKK is LONGER than DUB-BKK so your theory would make no sense whatsoever.

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 22):
There are many people who connect through CDG/LHR/AMS to go to the states.

Don't compare apples with oranges here.

-The Irish have their national airline flying to the USA from Ireland.
-The Americans have their national airline flying to Ireland from the USA.

The fact of the matter is that people going between America and Ireland of whom CHOOSE to stop off or transit through Continental Europe have the choice to fly on the Airline of the Country they are visiting or are from so that they can fly non-stop. They choose to use a cheaper and more in-direct alternative.

People wanting to get to Asia from Ireland or V.V like myself, currently do not have Irish Airlines flying to Asia non stop or Asian Airlines flying non stop to Ireland. We DON'T have the CHOICE of going non stop like the America-Ireland pax do. So I don't see how a one stop service to Asia is going to give EI an advantage in the market. Especially if the route would be served with similar frequencies to that of the new DXB route.
 
jwmd123
Posts: 405
Joined: Fri May 12, 2006 7:12 pm

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 11:07 pm

DAA looks at Birmingham stake sale

January 15, 2007 11:31
The Dublin Airport Authority is to look at selling its stake in Birmingham International Airport. It is understood that selling the shareholding could raise around €162m for the DAA.


DAA subsidiary Aer Rianta International currently holds a 24% stake in Birmingham airport, the fifth largest passenger airport in the UK.

A statement said Aer Rianta International and Macquarie Airports Group, which also holds 24%, would explore the sale of their combined 48% stake through a joint sale.


But it said any decision to sell would depend on the quality of the offers received.

Late last year the DAA sold its 3% stake in Hamburg airport for more than €30m
 
EIBoston
Posts: 366
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2006 11:18 pm

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Mon Jan 15, 2007 11:47 pm

Quoting JWMD123 (Reply 27):
DAA looks at Birmingham stake sale

January 15, 2007 11:31
The Dublin Airport Authority is to look at selling its stake in Birmingham International Airport. It is understood that selling the shareholding could raise around €162m for the DAA.

What would the DAA do with proceeds of such a deal? ( extend a certain runway maybe)

What became of the Cork Airport debt issue? Last thing I remember was the government going back on their word that the new airport would start out debt free. Of course this being an election year I expect to see that change again. Show the poeple of Cork that they are getting a 250 million euro gift! Of course they would only be getting what was promised before the new terminal was built. So in fact they would be getting nothing! Just have to love politics Smile
 
Poitin
Posts: 2651
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 6:32 am

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:54 am

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 18):
We always seem to blame the DAA for everything... I think the fault for most of the problems is the dithering by various governments over the years.

I agree the root issue is the government is run by a bunch of fools. The DAA is a product of that.

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 18):
Runway extension is not going to happen. It simply is not justifiable for a few flights a week, especially with a new runway on the way anyway.

Kaitak has the reply NAILED below. You cannot just build a runway after you have the need, but you must build it before to develop it. In addition you can extend 10/28 a good deal more (almost 12000 feet) in the land already owned but DUB, while the new runway would have to angled more to the 05/23 axis to be so long, which would then bring aircraft in over Malahide and Swords.

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 25):
You may well be right (about its likelihood), but those "few flights a week" are to very important new markets - markets which the govt is apparently trying to target for new opportunities. Also, in an age of much greater awareness about environmental issues,the ability of long haul aircraft (even those to the US) to take off at derated power will be an attractive consequence of a longer runway. The new runway won't be open until 2013, so what we're effectively saying is that it's acceptable to limit our route options until then and worse still, that it's acceptable for the airport authority to dictate what major markets are accessible from Ireland.



Quoting Al2637 (Reply 18):

Making a technical stop on the way really wouldn't be a big deal. It's NOT the same as having to connect in LHR, AMS, FRA etc.

Only in that they don't unload the baggage. They usually let the pax out to stretch their legs and even if they don't, there is a cost in fuel simply to land and take off again instead of remaining at cruise, not to mention landing fees and such. And if you have a choice between a non-stop and a one stop which do you choose? Pax are not cargo. They want to get to where they are headed a soon as possible.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
al2637
Posts: 227
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2006 1:11 am

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 1:24 am

Well, a technical stop prob wouldn't even show on a schedules as being so. PAX would prob not even know the difference.

I do agree, in an ideal world the runway would be long enough, and would have been built that way 10 years ago, but it isn't.

How much would it cost to extend it? €25M? €50M? €100M? Frankly I can think of much better places that money could be spent (rail, roads, buses, etc etc) right now than on a handful of flights to the far east. Why not take some of that money and put it into a pot to subsidise/compensate flights that have to make a refuelling stop? Would probably work out a helluva lot cheaper in the short term! (until the new runway is built)
 
BrianDromey
Posts: 1931
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2006 2:23 am

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 1:38 am

Quoting Planemanofnz (Reply 26):
Business travellers are hardly going to pick EI's outdated Business seat with non daily schedules with a stop somewhere in the middle as opposed to flying via somewhere in Europe meaning they have superior product, superior FFP and in most cases superior scheduling.

Fine, EI current aircraft are not at the races. I accecpt that. But they are taking step in that direction to improve them and re-fit them. Remember that EI has always been a semi-state body, been through rough times and has its own pace of work. I accecpt that in the current world that they need to move more quickly. But c'mere to me, where did I suggest that the Asia routes should be operated by A330's?

Quoting Planemanofnz (Reply 26):
Have you actually been on a SQ or CX flight?

Nope, nor have I pretended to. You will find that I compared EI to BA and EK, both carriers which I have experience of. Both companies have very good reputations among travellers and travel agents. I rate them highly as well.

Quoting Planemanofnz (Reply 26):
-The Irish have their national airline flying to the USA from Ireland.
-The Americans have their national airline flying to Ireland from the USA.

The fact of the matter is that people going between America and Ireland of whom CHOOSE to stop off or transit through Continental Europe have the choice to fly on the Airline of the Country they are visiting or are from so that they can fly non-stop. They choose to use a cheaper and more in-direct alternative.

You're making no sense here man, there is no such thing as a "American Flag Carrier". Sure there is a carrier with the name "American" but the flag carrier of the USA it is not.

I dont see how it is "apples and oranges" perhaps you might be quite so kind as to explain to me HOW choosing to go east to go west is different to choosing to go a shorter distnace west to go east, IF both situations were possible. Explain, especially as EI are regularly cheaper than Air France and/or KLM from DUB to JFK/LAX/BOS etc.

Quoting Planemanofnz (Reply 26):
Read the posts! This isn't about runway length at DUB! It is about range of the A330!

May I suggest you do the same.....you would see that I mentioned that the 330s might be restricted. So instead of lambasting others, I decided to go to the trouble of finding out what might be possible in a 777-200ER/LR from DUB. However you choose to completely ignore this and make innacurate statements, and use quaotaions from my posts in an innacurate way.

No Im not a commercial pilot, or any pilot for that matter, but that does not exclude me from posting my opinions on here, does it? Just because I dont sit in the pointy end of a 737 does not mean Im clueless. Ill freely admit that I know about as much about flying a plane as MOL does about concorde. But then he does not know much about how to fly a 737 either. Doesnt seem to hold him back much tho.

RANT OVER.

Ive made a few suggestions because I felt that they might add to the forum. Many of them are more "out there" than others, but rather than sitting here lambasting the CEO of EI, I added thoughts, which raise the issues facing DM at the current time.

Options remain as:
1) Do nothing, wait until the new runway is built in about a decade(realistically).
2) Go east with a tech stop and currrent aircraft, with new interiors.
3) Go east non-stop, payload restricted with new 777 ER's(less restrictions on a 772LR)
4) Go east, fully loaded with a tech stop somewhere, with 777/340s.

Perhaps Ive missed something, fell free to add to this.

Cheers,
Brian.
Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)
 
smokeyrosco
Posts: 1441
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2005 10:21 am

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 1:55 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 12):
Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 8):
PPL from DUB to the US dont seem to mind the stop too much

Alot of people hate the SNN stop especially on the return after an overnight flight , you just wanna get home !!!And some stops are 2 hours long.

I travel to the US at least twice a year and I pay extra or change my dates just to make sure I don't have to stop at SNN going over and coming back, last year I paid an extra €400 (to DL) and had to extended my holiday by couple of days just to make sure I didn't stop at SNN.

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 18):
We always seem to blame the DAA for everything... I think the fault for most of the problems is the dithering by various governments over the years.

Thats because the DAA are the authority put that manage DUB, I'm not sure they need government approval to extend the runway or build another Pier or add extra gates etc. (except planning permission), so in my opinion it is DAA's fault pretty much all the time. I do take your point do, I also blame the government for not having a proactive role in the airports evolution. I also blame the government for not looking at things like T2 and the runway length and then kicking the DAA up the arse in order to get something done about it.

Let me just make a point here too, DUB has not needed a longer runway, at the moment DUB can get away with the current 10/28 but the pinch is starting to be felt now for a longer runway and waiting 6 years is just unacceptable, particularly for a capital city like DUB.
John Hancock
 
smokeyrosco
Posts: 1441
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2005 10:21 am

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 2:03 am

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 31):
3) Go east non-stop, payload restricted with new 777 ER's(less restrictions on a 772LR)

I pick no. 3, but somehow I think your numbers may be off, I know DL operated a restricted payload on a T7 out of DUB to ATL and that is 3938 miles. As for exact models and how much you can get away with I don't know. I can't remember how restricted they where I just remember it being an issue.
John Hancock
 
Poitin
Posts: 2651
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 6:32 am

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D

Tue Jan 16, 2007 2:14 am

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 30):
Well, a technical stop prob wouldn't even show on a schedules as being so. PAX would prob not even know the difference.

They will notice, trust me. Cargo would not, but the pax tend to look out the windows and would notice.

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 30):
I do agree, in an ideal world the runway would be long enough, and would have been built that way 10 years ago, but it isn't.

How much would it cost to extend it? €25M? €50M? €100M?

True, it should have been done 10 years ago. As for cost, I don't know. Anyone have input? Runways are expensive to build because they are about 45 M wide and almost a meter thick (if I remember correctly).

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 30):
Frankly I can think of much better places that money could be spent (rail, roads, buses, etc etc) right now than on a handful of flights to the far east.

Okay. You have the right to your opinion. On the other hand many see of us see the utility of a longer runway going well beyond the Far East. It could open DUB as a secondary hub for one thing. That would mean more jobs for Irish airport workers. It would increase tourism, which Ireland desperately needs. That would increase jobs for Irish workers, profits for Irish hotels, restaurant's, shops, etc.

I think Kaitak has it right.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 2:21 am

Brian,

According to:
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/airports/777.htm

Even 772LR needs over 10,000 for take of a MTOW. To take off from DUB you would need to take at least 50tons out of take off weight.

[Edited 2007-01-15 18:27:46]
 
smokeyrosco
Posts: 1441
Joined: Mon Dec 12, 2005 10:21 am

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 2:26 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 34):
It would increase tourism, which Ireland desperately needs

Actually we did pretty well last year

Quote:
ITIC, the Irish Tourist Industry Confederation, identified these as highlights in its End of Year Review.

"2006 was a particularly good year measured in terms of visitor numbers and revenue," said Ms. Catherine Reilly, Chairwoman of ITIC

Almost 7.5 million overseas visitors are estimated to have come to Ireland in 2006, an increase of over 11%.

The North American market reached pre - 9/11 numbers for the first time, crossing the one million visitor mark - an increase of just over 10%.

Visitor numbers from Britain reached 3.8 million, an increase of almost 6%

"The star performer in terms of visitor growth was the European market which delivered an increase of over 16%, crossing the 2 million mark for the first time and reaching just over 2.2 million visitors," said Ms. Reilly.

Revenue generated by overseas visits will be close to €4 billion

The domestic tourist market remained strong with over 60% of hotel bed nights outside of the capital being generated by the Irish market.
The CSO reported during the year that while domestic trips levelled off in the first half of the year, expenditure grew significantly and "home holidays" continued to exhibit a strong growth rate of 11%.

Domestic revenue is expected to exceed €1.3 billion

"When carrier receipts are added, the tourism industry is expected to have generated almost €6 billion in 2006", said Ms. Reilly
John Hancock
 
BrianDromey
Posts: 1931
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2006 2:23 am

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D

Tue Jan 16, 2007 2:36 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 35):
Even 772LR needs over 10,000 for take of a MTOW

I know that, and it is stated in the above posts....

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 31):
Go east non-stop, payload restricted with new 777 ER's(less restrictions on a 772LR)

So unfortunatley the 777 is restricted from DUB:

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 22):
Were talking somewhere in the region of about 520,000 pounds gross weight

Atlhough Smokeyrosco has stated that DL's 777s were restriced to even ATL. Which models exactly are in question Im not sure, but I suspect that they might be non-ER models? Again Im no expert in tehis field, just going on Boeing data.

Just out of interest does anyone know if the MD-11 would do any better out of DUB?
Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)
 
kaitak
Posts: 8933
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 1999 5:49 am

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:16 am

Delta used MD11s out of DUB a few years back, before they used 777s. I do recall DL saying, around the time the runway length was first announced, back in the late '80s (when they were the only US carrying flying the route) that they were disappointed in its length; of course, that was at a time when we still had the full SNN stopover in place.

Still, it would be nice to hear people speak out loud and say "this must happen", but at the end of the day, airlines will say, "this isn't our job". Can you imagine how many cities would love to get direct service from SQ? And if they can't fly their aircraft in the most economic way to DUB, they'll fly it elsewhere. And an airline like SQ won't be short of suitors, believe me. Let's face it, for the past 35 years, SQ has been the leader in the airline industry; sure, SQ spends more, but SQ has been first with so many innovations - nonstop from Europe to Asia, sleeperettes, lie flat beds, PTVs in Y Class, etc. etc. EK may spend more, but SQ is still the bluest of blue chips and if you can get the likes of SQ to market your destination across its network, that's a big boost. But we can't. Why not? NOT because we don't have the market, but because the airport authority has decided the market isn't there. I mean, HAVE YOU EVER HEARD SUCH GARBAGE IN YOUR LIFE?! Sorry for the capitals, but this is REALLY fundamental. Airports - virtually every airport in the world - can plan its capacity and growth in advance and anticipate the likely developments; and if it doesn't, the govt or Transport ministry will "prod" it accordingly. But not here; no, we have to wait. And wait and wait.

About six years ago, just after 9/11, I was supposed to do one of my Airways "cockpit" articles on a Cathay A340 flight. Of course, thanks to Atta & Co., that was a "no no", BUT I got what I think was a better opportunity*, to write about CX's training operation and its philosophy about safety. There is a theory developed by a Manchester Uni prof called James Reason, called the "Model of Organisational Failure", better known as the "Swiss cheese" model. It was first applied to hospital surgeries, but airlines use it and indeed, the Australian air accident investigation board uses it.

It occurred to me that the same model might be applied to our air transport policy. Basically, the concept is (and anyone who has watched those Nat Geog programs on air disasters will be familiar with this) that there is no single cause for a screw up - be it an operation going wrong or a plane crash, or - in our case - a failed transport policy. It's a combination of factors. When the holes in the Swiss cheeses line up, "bang": Emmenthal all over your face.

If we applied this to our transport policy, what would we get:
- Lack of vision by the airport operator
- Lack of interest/oversight by the government
- Lack of a coherent aviation policy - largely due to political influence
- Failure by airline operators to express their views (often due to "fear" of consequences)
- Failure to understand effect of air transport on other sectors of the economy; such as trade and tourism.

Now, one (or even all but one) should not cause a problem; if, for example, the you had all except the failure of operators to express their views, that could be sufficient to stop things going bad, but when you have all of these, the result is that we're stymied; just as with the Shannon stopover policy, we find that the biggest obstacle to our ability to make aviation work for us is not external (ok, it may be no, but work with me here), but our attitude. If we don't do this, no one will care. It's not SIA's job, Cathay's job or anyone else's to say, "please, DAA, give us a few feet of runway so we can fly to DUB"; like I said, these blue chip airlines have no shortage of airports begging at their feet for service. And if you look across Europe, you can see most of them have sufficiently long runways for unrestricted services.

That's where we're at now, so let's bear that in mind. As I keep saying, the only thing that is going to make aviation policy change in this country, is an almighty pitchfork in the rear. We keep hearing about our declining competitiveness, our balance of payments, our infrastructure etc and when we see a stark example of a fatal combination of circumstances, what do we do? Bugger all.

As for the cost, incidentally? Well, a 10,000' new runway, which includes redirecting roads etc, is put at about €200-250m; here, we only need about 1500' of runway, no road diversions, so the cost should be around €25m. And with the DAA soon to have a few readies from the Birmingham airport sale, I'd say (in true Harry Enfield Brummese), they have very considerably enough money to do the job .

Oh, and do you know where our esteemed Dear Leader was today? Talking to Sama, the new Saudi low cost operator, which has apparently contracted SR Technics to do its maintenance work. Here's his speech, all six lines of it:

http://www.taoiseach.gov.ie/index.asp?locID=200&docID=3141

Couldn't he just have sent them a "thank you" postcard?
 
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OA260
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:25 am

Quoting Planemanofnz (Reply 26):
Um I would. Especially if EI wanted me to go through an even dirtier, smaller or inferior airport than LHR like CAI, ATH, TLV or 'ROM.'

ATH ??? It is the most cleanest and modern airport in Europe !!! Makes Dublin look like Kabul!!! www.aia.gr

TLV and CAI however I will agree with you on that
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:31 am

I really think Aer Lingus need to announce an aircraft order, sort out the long-haul product and then announce new routes. The first step in upgrading the long-haul product has been done or is in the process of being done and that is the Premier cabins hopefully they haven't forgotten about economy. There will be no saying Aer Lingus long-haul service is poor once they finish the cabin upgrades!

Quoting OA260 (Reply 12):
Nice photo, glad they kept the unusual carpet but i guess this will go with the any new interior.

That carpet will probably remain, the image I put in my post is the current version which is different to the Premier class found on some of the other A330s and from what I can see the -300s have a different Premier class altogether compared to the -200s.
Here's the current premier seat from the front. This is the most recent image from simca aero seat.
 
al2637
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 4:00 am

Quoting Smokeyrosco (Reply 32):
I also blame the government for not looking at things like T2 and the runway length and then kicking the DAA up the arse in order to get something done about it.

But isn't it the government which dithered for 2 years and then restricted the capacity of T2??? Can't blame the DAA for that!!!

What I'd like to see is the government to ask the DAA to come up with a 30+ year development plan, with planned capacity of 100M. Everytime new capacity was needed, they could build the next part of the plan, with constant re-evaluation to ensure it was relevant.

On the runway issue, even if the DECISION to extend it was made today, it would still have to go through planning permission, appeals, environmental impact study, design, build, etc etc.. I'd guesstimate it would be 2-3+ years before it would be ready.

Anyway, it could be 2013 before EI announce their long-haul order anyway
 hissyfit 
 
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shamrock350
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 4:21 am

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 41):
On the runway issue, even if the DECISION to extend it was made today, it would still have to go through planning permission, appeals, environmental impact study, design, build, etc etc.. I'd guesstimate it would be 2-3+ years before it would be ready.

So isn't it better to start now than wait any longer?

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 41):
Anyway, it could be 2013 before EI announce their long-haul order anyway

They better hurry up. I can see a lot of A330 orders and A350 orders running up to the Paris Airshow. There will also be a surge of 787 orders but in 2008 orders will slow as it gets closer to its EIS.
 
smokeyrosco
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 4:44 am

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 41):
But isn't it the government which dithered for 2 years and then restricted the capacity of T2??? Can't blame the DAA for that!!!

Correct but on the other hand the people that are suppose to be experts in the field of aviation in Ireland never mind Dublin is the DAA (or you can user the former name it's all the same really) The Government went along with their own authority (it's nice to have people who work for you run these places when your passing through). But also these (the DAA) are the people that are suppose to know whats best for DUB.

Yes its wrong but so are a lot of things about our government, I won't tell you about the letter that awaited me from a local TD today thinking he was going to win my vote but now instead he's going to get a very very nasty email.

Quoting Al2637 (Reply 41):
On the runway issue, even if the DECISION to extend it was made today, it would still have to go through planning permission, appeals, environmental impact study, design, build, etc etc.. I'd guesstimate it would be 2-3+ years before it would be ready.

Well they could if they really wanted to have planning permission within a year and they could have it built in less then a year. It's not really a major project. at least in my opinion.
John Hancock
 
kaitak
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 6:02 am

Quoting Shamrock350 (Reply 42):
They better hurry up. I can see a lot of A330 orders and A350 orders running up to the Paris Airshow. There will also be a surge of 787 orders but in 2008 orders will slow as it gets closer to its EIS.

Good point, Shamrock 350; I forgot about the Paris Air Show; that's going to a particularly important and interesting show this year and frankly, if EI doesn't get its widebody order in before or during the show, it will cause serious problems for the airline. I can see the 787-10 being launched before or during the show, but with significant orders, so that will fill up production places.

Just going back to the DUB slot issue, FR has responded to what it says is misleading facts about it and again, goes on a tirade against the DAA (I almost feel sorry for them!).

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusin...ews/publish/article_10008689.shtml

Basically, FR's case is that the problem is with the terminals (OK, fair point), but it then goes on to say that LGW handles 40m on one runway and LHR, 65m on two - completely ignoring the fact that it's number of movements; both handle a lot more widebody traffic.

Smokeyrosco, I agree with your points; the DAA should be the experts, but they're showing very poor vision and indeed, doing something that no airport authority should be allowed to do; just waiting for the pressure to become so great that they'll have to (or be forced to) act. When will that pressure "tipping point" be? We don't know. However, in a situation like this, the govt should be the safety valve, to basically trip the switch and say, "listen guys, you're doing this, or else", but since they don't have the interest to do so, we're stuffed; it's the "Swiss cheese" model I referred to earlier.

As for cost, I don't see a runway extension being a major job; it's within the current airport boundary, it can't exactly be said to have any physical impact on the landscape (because it's not really visible from the road) and the EIS would show that it would actually have a beneficial impact, because of the ability of aircraft to use derated power. So, that should be a fairly quick exercise. Again, I see the cost as being about €25m; the DAA may bleat about this, but if they had done it 15 years ago, when they should have ...

There is, of course, a very blunt instrument the govt could use: effectively, the govt would tell the DAA that it wants to take a cut of the proceeds from the sale of the BHX airport share (say, for example, €25m), but it will exercise its discretion not to do so, if certain projects are fast-tracked, specifically, the cargo terminal and runway extension. Furthermore, in addition to taking an even greater proportion of the monies, the govt will also bring forward a decision about the operator of T2 and also, advance plans for T3 (which will specifically exclude the DAA as a potential operator). Translation: easy way or hard way? You choose ...

Does anyone know if new legislation on fast-tracking essential infrastructural projects has come through yet?
 
planemanofnz
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 6:36 am

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 31):
But c'mere to me, where did I suggest that the Asia routes should be operated by A330's?

You said EI should operate the route and EI only have A330' for long haul. The A330 is the ONLY aircraft they have at the moment and have ordered for the future.

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 31):
You will find that I compared EI to BA and EK, both carriers which I have experience of.

Woopdeedoo. EK and BA are nothing compared to SQ, CX or MH hence why they clean up all the titles at awards time or they get 5 star ratings. The amount of airlines who are on par with BA and EK make it laughable to think that people would choose EI just for the crews. Give me a break!

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 31):
So instead of lambasting others, I decided to go to the trouble of finding out what might be possible in a 777-200ER/LR from DUB. However you choose to completely ignore this and make innacurate statements, and use quaotaions from my posts in an innacurate way.

Brian, read this :

Quoting Danny (Reply 35):
According to:
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/airports/777.htm

Even 772LR needs over 10,000 for take of a MTOW. To take off from DUB you would need to take at least 50tons out



Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 37):
Atlhough Smokeyrosco has stated that DL's 777s were restriced to even ATL.

And ask yourself why do they not use 777's on the route anymore?

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 37):
Just out of interest does anyone know if the MD-11 would do any better out of DUB?

EI will not get the MD-11 for Asian flights. It is too costly too run. And before you go spouting off at me saying that 'I never said that EI would get them,' I know that, I am telling you that there is not point in even thinking about a MD-11 operator for DUB though.

Another question from me though :

Visionair who planned to start up flights to Singapore non stop from Dublin are planning to use 762's on the route. Would these make it (range and runway wise?)
 
al2637
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 6:39 am

Kaitak, the reality is, things are just not that simple. I don't believe the government can exert pressure like that without being accused of interfering, and probably in breech of some EU law... secondly, the regulator would prob. have a lot to say on the issue, and I'm sure MOL would scream the house down if there was any increase in charges as a result.

Sure, they have the money from Hamburg and Birmingham, but they've also got a $1Bn+ infrastructure bill. I don't see how the government taking a few million off them would help anyone...

I really don't think it could cut through the bureaucracy within a year either... there are some pretty vocal local lobby groups who would insist that the full procedure be followed (and I don't blame them really)...
 
kaitak
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 6:57 am

I agree it is a very blunt instrument; maybe we'll have to settle for "half throttle". It just feels so very wrong that we should be forced to do so by an internally imposed restriction.

I just happened to notice on Breakingnews.ie that economic growth in NI is now overtaking that in the south; not necessarily a bad thing - certainly not for them, but we do seem to be sliding back and economic indicators are not as unambiguously healthy as they were some time ago; this is no time to relax and smell the roses. It feels as if we're trying to fit a JT8D or a Spey to a 747; trying to get an economy to move forward on less than full power. It baffles me why we simply will not let aviation make its optimum possible contribution to growth.

I know I said - about 40 posts back - that I'd say no more on this, but I simply cannot give up on this.

Planemanofnz, I agree that EI might not be in the same class as Asian carriers, but by European standards - say KLM, BA, LH, it's right up there; possibly not as good as SK or AY, but certainly streets ahead of IB or AZ. Get the morale working, get the routes/scheduling get and get a modern IFE system in place and it'll go a long way to making a better airline. It can be done.
 
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ClassicLover
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RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 7:11 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 47):
Planemanofnz, I agree that EI might not be in the same class as Asian carriers, but by European standards - say KLM, BA, LH, it's right up there; possibly not as good as SK or AY, but certainly streets ahead of IB or AZ. Get the morale working, get the routes/scheduling get and get a modern IFE system in place and it'll go a long way to making a better airline. It can be done.

I am still picking up my jaw off the floor... patriotism is all well and good, and I certainly applaud it - but what?

EI is nowhere near the standards of BA on intra-Europe routes. Even if you overlook the fact that BA has business class, their economy class is way better than EI - first of all because you don't have to pay for food. Additionally, the Gold Circle Club lounges are a pale comparison compared to the BA Terraces offering, never more clearly underlined than at Heathrow.

There are a lot of things that "can" be done with EI... however, the highly unionised work force, lack of any real vision, plus a myriad of other circumstances (and I know how badly 9/11 hurt EI) are all keeping EI a third tier airline in a rapidly advancing market. It pains me to see it.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
BrianDromey
Posts: 1931
Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2006 2:23 am

RE: Ay Carumba, Dudes! It's Irish Aviation 4/07. D'oh!

Tue Jan 16, 2007 7:28 am

I stated that the 330 might struggle with Asia from DUB, I never precluded EI from operating another type. Just becasue they dont have suitable a/c at this point in time does not mean that they could not, or would not buy/lease machines capable of such missions.

Where exactly did you think I got performance data for the 777 from? You know you really should follow your own adivce and read the posts, if you did you would see:

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 22):
Data from: http://www.boeing.com/commercial/air...7.htm

Exactly the same website you advised me to read. Would you like me to spare you the trouble of clicking on there and just forwarding the appropriate PDF?
Perhaps in your wisdom you might read it and see if my calculations are in any way accurate.

You know its very easy to knock the ideas of others. Ive yet to see you add something positive to any of the threads. You consistantly attempt to belittle and patronise people who come up with new ideas and suggestions.

How do you propose that south east asia, and byond, be served from DUB?

Continue to bully your way through the tread, I dont care, but I posted what I thought might be options, now if none of them are viable, fine. Ill continue to do so. We'll park here and wait till the new runway is built. Lets all have a great time wasting time and money at LHR/CDG/AMS.
Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)

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