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420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 4:56 am

Was sitting on the pot reading my new issue of Airliner World flipping through it madly to get the latest on the A380 program. I come across a little blurb that says that Airbus now says it must sell 420 to break even not the 270 originally forecasted. With only 159 firm orders they have a looooooooooong way to go. This is in no way bashing Airbus as I am a fan of the A380 program.
 
BladeLWS
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420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 4:58 am

Ouch...

Question is, will they even make that many orders...
 
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ClassicLover
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420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 5:29 am

I'm sure they'll make that many orders...

So many people on here seem only to be able to see the short term... the A380 is a 20 year programme. Plenty of time to get those orders.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
 
baron95
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420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 5:36 am

Quoting BladeLWS (Reply 1):
I'm sure they'll make that many orders...

Leaving room for some likely/possible cancelations, going from 159 to 420, requires selling about 300 additional A380s.

From 2000 to 2006 about 150 were sold, during a period where there was no 748I, no 787, no A350XWB, somewhat lower fuel prices (at least in the early years when most of the orders were booked), no reputation problem (again in the early years when most orders were booked).

So what you are saying is that over the coming years, A380s with all the extra competition and other issues, will sell twice as many as were sold previously?

I don't think it is impossible, but I wonder how you can be "sure" it will happen.
Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
 
ikramerica
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420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 5:42 am

This news was even more interesting when it was regarding the BREAK EVEN number and reported last summer. There have been many interesting discussions and lots of analysis of the numbers involved. It's a good read, really. Go do a search, you're bound to find 10-20 threads on this...  Wink
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
DfwRevolution
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420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 5:43 am

The real issue is now return on investment. Breaking-even at 420 units should be plausable given the market forecast for both Airbus and Boeing. But that's just to break even. When you tie-up $15 billion dollars for 10-20 years, you want to make a profit.
 
katekebo
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420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 5:46 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 2):
I'm sure they'll make that many orders...

So many people on here seem only to be able to see the short term... the A380 is a 20 year programme. Plenty of time to get those orders

The problem is that time plays againts Airbus. The breakeven point is not a fixed number, but also function of time. It should have been stated as "420 units by x date". My guess is that "x" is somewhere 4-5 years from now. If it will take 20 years to reach the breakeven, then the number is much higher than 420 units. Basic consequence of time-value-of-money.
 
leelaw
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420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 6:01 am

There are two archived threads discussing this topic when EADS/Airbus revised their break-even outlook regarding the A380 program in October of last year:
Break-even Outlook For A380 Now At 420 Aircraft (by Leelaw Oct 19 2006 in Civil Aviation)
Break-even Outlook For A380 Now At 420...- Part 2! (by Gilesdavies Oct 22 2006 in Civil Aviation)

The EADS/Airbus "A380 Financial Update" which revised break-even outlook is available at:

http://www.eads.com/xml/content/OF00000000400004/0/74/41485740.pdf
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
warreng24
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:45 am

Quoting Badge (Thread starter):
must sell 420 to break even

Let us not forget the technological advances that cannot be quantified. I am sure that technology developed for the A380 program will benefit future Airbus programs in a very positive fashion.
 
prebennorholm
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:29 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 7):
The breakeven point is not a fixed number, but also function of time. It should have been stated as "420 units by x date".

That's very right, Katekebo.

But there is one more very important variable: The future market situation.

Nobody can predict today what price can be asked for a 380 in, say, 2010. Nobody knows. That counts whether you produce airliners or hot chocolate.

The cost side is equally unsecure. Contracts with subcontractors are typically renegotiated every other year. Nobody knows the price Airbus will have to pay subcontractors for 380 components in, say, five years time.

That's have business is. Every sort of business. Every investment is a gamble. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes you shoot a jackpot.

On a slot machine you see your return on investment in a second. In an industial program predicted to last 30-40-50 years it is a different thing.

Whether the 380 program will pay back development costs in 2014, 2018 or whenever, that is rather interesting for shareholders who will see that right on their return on investment. And that's about it.

But there should be no reason why the A380 shouldn't sell also in 2040, of course in updated versions, with "NG engines" and many other changes like any other airliner which are sold over several decades.

All that hype about whether the 380 becomes a success or failure, that we can just as well put to rest for 10 - 15 years. Until then it all comes to guessing, predicting, believing or disbelieving.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
zvezda
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:40 am

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 2):
the A380 is a 20 year programme. Plenty of time to get those orders.

Within five or so years, both Airbus and Boeing will have a very difficult time selling aluminium airliners. It's a 20th century manufacturing technique, like wood and canvas airliners. The A350 saga has illustrated how aluminium airliners can't compete with CFRP airliners.
 
RedChili
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:44 am

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 7):
The problem is that time plays againts Airbus. The breakeven point is not a fixed number, but also function of time. It should have been stated as "420 units by x date". My guess is that "x" is somewhere 4-5 years from now.

You're correct concerning the principle, but your timing is wrong. According to the revised schedule provided by Airbus in October last year, they will deliver only 39 A380s from now until the end of 2009. Starting in 2010 they will deliver 45 A380s per year. Which means that Airbus will reach 420 units by mid-2018. So that timing is of course a part of the calculations that Airbus made when they said that they will need to deliver 420 A380s to break even.
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RedChili
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:02 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 6):
All these Airbus enthusiasts forget the fact that Airbus is going to be bleeding $ hard!

And you forget the fact that Airbus has already spent 80 percent of all R&D costs for the A380. So your statement that Airbus "is going to" bleed money hard in the future, is factually wrong. They have already paid most of those costs.

Starting in 2010, the A380 program will generate a significant amount of positive cash for Airbus.
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474218
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:38 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 12):
You're correct concerning the principle, but your timing is wrong. According to the revised schedule provided by Airbus in October last year, they will deliver only 39 A380s from now until the end of 2009. Starting in 2010 they will deliver 45 A380s per year. Which means that Airbus will reach 420 units by mid-2018. So that timing is of course a part of the calculations that Airbus made when they said that they will need to deliver 420 A380s to break even.

To build and deliver 45 A380's a year, Airbus will also have to sell 45 A380's a year. With only 166 orders currently on the books they will only be able to build 45 per year for about three and a half years.

.
 
Dougloid
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:41 am

Quoting Badge (Thread starter):
Was sitting on the pot reading my new issue of Airliner World flipping through it madly to get the latest on the A380 program. I come across a little blurb that says that Airbus now says it must sell 420 to break even not the 270 originally forecasted. With only 159 firm orders they have a looooooooooong way to go. This is in no way bashing Airbus as I am a fan of the A380 program.

No offense man, but where have you been the last six months?
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
NAV20
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:43 am

In this context, 2018 could be an important year for Airbus.

Under the 1992 Agreement on launch aid, Airbus is bound to repay the amount of launch aid advanced, plus accumulated interest, in one of two ways; either as royalties on sales, or as a lump sum 17 years after the date of the advance.

Assuming that the A380 launch aid was of the order of $US4B., and was advanced in 2001, that means that Airbus could be facing a multi-billion-dollar bill in 2018. Unless they get a lot more orders very soon, it seems highly unlikely that they will have repaid much more than a third of the launch aid in the form of royalties by that time.

And any outstanding amount will have been accumulating compound interest since 2001; which means that it will have more than doubled over 17 years......
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:58 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 11):
Within five or so years, both Airbus and Boeing will have a very difficult time selling aluminium airliners. It's a 20th century manufacturing technique, like wood and canvas airliners. The A350 saga has illustrated how aluminium airliners can't compete with CFRP airliners.

Thank goodness over 20% of the A380 is CFRP then... Big grin
 
RedChili
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 12:15 pm

Quoting 474218 (Reply 14):
To build and deliver 45 A380's a year, Airbus will also have to sell 45 A380's a year. With only 166 orders currently on the books they will only be able to build 45 per year for about three and a half years.

This is correct, of course, but this is a different question. Several people in this thread have pointed out that Airbus has "only" sold around 160 airplanes and that they need to sell another 260 to break even. Airbus themselves believe that they will be able to sell around 750.
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baron95
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 12:32 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 18):
Airbus themselves believe that they will be able to sell around 750.

Where they previously believed they'd sell 1000.

The point, and this is a very important point IMHO, is that Airbus has a financial interest in inflating the forecast of the number of units they expect to sell for every program that receives launch aid. The reason is that number in the number used to calculate the royalty payment - in simple terms, (launch aid + accumulated interest)/forecast number of jets sold in 17 year = per unit royalty payment. Yes, after 17 years they'd have a baloon payment if they overinflated the forecast, but that is better than having royalty payments up front when every aircraft is being delivered at a loss.

Boeing on the other hand, some people think, has an interest in setting lower expectations on the forecast, so they can beat it and have an upside surprise for the financial community.

Take that as you want, but don't go on assuming that Airbust will sell 750 A380s, just because they forecast that.
Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
 
zvezda
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 3:16 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 18):
Airbus themselves believe that they will be able to sell around 750.

Airbus claim to believe they can sell 750 WhaleJets. Whether or not they actually believe that is unknown. 9% of American adults claim to believe in Santa Claus. I suspect the number who actually believe in Santa Claus may be lower. Of course, while both seem very unlikely, the evidence in favor of the existance of Santa Claus is more compelling than the evidence in favor of the notion that Airbus can sell 750 WhaleJets.  Wink
 
HBJZA
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 3:36 pm

I wish I could visit from time to time the parrallel world where the whalejet was actually developed by boeing ! It would be such a success and all the airports in the states would already be 380 friendly and all major carriers in the US would have ordered the beast. The breakeven would already have been achieved and the whole world would start to burry the queen of the sky in favor to the whalejet.
Sorry, I'm a bit nuts sometimes
 
grantcv
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 4:05 pm

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 7):
The problem is that time plays againts Airbus. The breakeven point is not a fixed number, but also function of time. It should have been stated as "420 units by x date". My guess is that "x" is somewhere 4-5 years from now. If it will take 20 years to reach the breakeven, then the number is much higher than 420 units. Basic consequence of time-value-of-money.

The other problem with time in the equation is that the on-going investments needed to keep the A380 program effective only delay the break-even further. If Airbus needs to develop the -900 version (which seems unlikely at this point), then that pushes the break-even out quite a bit further. If break-even takes more than 20 years, then the cost of a major upgrade will have to be factored in.
 
zvezda
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 4:25 pm

Quoting HBJZA (Reply 21):
I wish I could visit from time to time the parrallel world where the whalejet was actually developed by boeing ! It would be such a success and all the airports in the states would already be 380 friendly and all major carriers in the US would have ordered the beast. The breakeven would already have been achieved and the whole world would start to burry the queen of the sky in favor to the whalejet.

Who built the WhaleJet is irrelevant. Airbus have no difficulty selling good airliners like the A300, A320, and A330. The WhaleJet wouldn't sell any better if it had been built by the gods themselves. It is a structurally inefficient airliner built with previous generation technologies chasing a very tiny niche.
 
NAV20
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 6:37 pm

In any case, the 64-dollar (or $64-billion-dollar) question is what sale prices were used in calculating the breakeven point. Possibly - even probably - the analysts assumed that, once the existing orders (which have been secured at relatively low prices) are filled, the A380 will thenceforward sell at something much closer to list.

That would be a very optimistic assumption - the 748 has not cost Boeing much to develop, the obvious counter on Boeing's part would be to offer the 748 at prices just low enough to force Airbus to keep theiir A380 prices down so as to compete.

In which case there would be NO practical chance of the A380 breaking even, however many Airbus sold?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Shenzhen
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:07 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 24):
In any case, the 64-dollar (or $64-billion-dollar) question is what sale prices were used in calculating the breakeven point. Possibly - even probably - the analysts assumed that, once the existing orders (which have been secured at relatively low prices) are filled, the A380 will thenceforward sell at something much closer to list.

At the end of the day does it really matter? Me thinks that both Boeing and EADS/Airbus will be around long after both you and I are gone from this Earth.

Cheers
 
RedChili
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:08 pm

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 19):
Where they previously believed they'd sell 1000.

Do you have a link for that?

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 19):
when every aircraft is being delivered at a loss.

Actually, starting in 2010 Airbus believes that every aircraft will be delivered with a significant profit.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 24):
In any case, the 64-dollar (or $64-billion-dollar) question is what sale prices were used in calculating the breakeven point.

This is an important question which is a very well-kept Airbus secret.

Another important question, which is well-known, is that Airbus made these calculations with the EUR/USD exchange rate at 1.3 in the short run, and 1.12 in the long run.
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NAV20
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:18 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 25):
At the end of the day does it really matter?

It matters insofar as investors tend to take the 'long view' where shares in aircraft manufacturers are concerned, Shenzhen - because the 'lead-time' on both new products and deliveries is so long.. If Airbus doesn't come up with a believable strategy for getting out of the A380 mess soon, and ALSO develop a credible counter to the 787/777 combination, not only will they find it impossible to raise the extra E4B. of capital that they urgently need; their shares will take yet another beating. Just as important, their customers will lose all confidence in their ability to deliver quality products on time.

Actually, just checked what's happening to their shares. Maybe that 'beating' is starting already.......
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
MEA-707
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:28 pm

If Airbus knew everything, they probably wouldn't have started to built the A-380 to start with. But the aircraft is here to stay now, it's more or less certified, 10-15 Billion is already spent, no way to turn the time around.
So the only relevant thing is to generate as much revenue possible with every A-380 they build and deliver from now on. If they manage to break even, great but I am sure Airbus is already happy if they can recoup most of the costs by selling 250-300, compared to the worst case scenario that Emirates, SQ etc cancelled, the program crubled apart, with less then 50 built and lots of compensation demands.
nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
 
zvezda
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:30 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 27):
not only will they find it impossible to raise the extra E4B. of capital that they urgently need

There is no chance of Airbus not being able to raise E4B. The question is what will they have to pay for it.
 
leelaw
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:39 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 26):
Actually, starting in 2010 Airbus believes that every aircraft will be delivered with a significant profit.

How can aircraft deliveries be "profitable" before break-even is achieved? In fact, Airbus doesn't expect to be "even" on production costs until "notional break-even" is achieved at 150 deliveries.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
uzzzer
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:47 pm

Well, 420 to break even may be a figure for today. But tomorrow fuel prices, security issues and other trends, that we might not be able to see now, might shift the 420 figure either way.

When B737 or A320 were designed and business plans written, LCCs weren't around. Now they are key customers for the types. (Please, don't take it as suggestion of a B737/A320 success for A380)

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 23):
It is a structurally inefficient airliner built with previous generation technologies chasing a very tiny niche.

Which is one of the circumstances of its success/failure story and may as well affect the 420 figure.
 
RedChili
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:55 pm

Quoting Leelaw (Reply 30):
How can aircraft deliveries be "profitable" before break-even is achieved?

They probably mean that by 2010, that all R&D costs have already been paid, that all or most of the delay compensation has been paid, and that the income from delivered SuperJumbos will be greater than the cost of producing them.
Top 10 airplanes: B737, T154, B747, IL96, T134, IL62, A320, MD80, B757, DC10
 
NAV20
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:03 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 32):
They probably mean that by 2010, that all R&D costs have already been paid, that all or most of the delay compensation has been paid, and that the income from delivered SuperJumbos will be greater than the cost of producing them.

All they mean is that, until some time in 2010, each A380 will cost more to produce than the customer is paying for it. Leaving design/development costs out of the equation.

[Edited 2007-01-18 12:04:49]
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
leelaw
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:10 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 32):
They probably mean that by 2010, that all R&D costs have already been paid, that all or most of the delay compensation has been paid, and that the income from delivered SuperJumbos will be greater than the cost of producing them.

No, IMO what Airbus "probably means" once you run it through the  spin  compiler is that circa 2010 they hope to have stopped adding to the mountain of sunk costs which need to be recovered through future deliveries.
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Kangar
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:21 pm

The biggest thorn in the A380's side presently is the weakness of the dollar against the Euro. If the dollar recovers against the Euro, you will see the break even figure decrease, just as the corrollary is also correct if the dollar continues to decline.
 
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OA260
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:34 pm

Id say eventually Airbus will sell the amount required to break even and if they are lucky they will make a small profit. It all depends on world events in the next 10 years .
 
sacamojus
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:35 pm

Sorry if this has already been posted, but I only browsed through your responses. Is the 420 a net present value breakeven point. If it is not, then Airbus will need to sell a a lot more A380's than 420 to breakeven on this project. When companies calculate the profitablity on a particular project they typically use the net present value model. Remember a Euro today is worth more than a Euro tomorrow.
 
zvezda
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:33 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 32):
They probably mean that by 2010, that all R&D costs have already been paid, that all or most of the delay compensation has been paid, and that the income from delivered SuperJumbos will be greater than the cost of producing them.

It means the third of those three. No more and no less.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 33):
All they mean is that, until some time in 2010, each A380 will cost more to produce than the customer is paying for it. Leaving design/development costs out of the equation.

 checkmark  Exactly.
 
Joni
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:47 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 33):

All they mean is that, until some time in 2010, each A380 will cost more to produce than the customer is paying for it. Leaving design/development costs out of the equation.

Including the late-delivery charges to production costs, I also understand this as you do.
 
miamix707
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:31 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 18):
Airbus themselves believe that they will be able to sell around 750.

The 744 used to be in demand by much more operators than the A380 is today. Yet it has not even sold 750 units yet of both pax. and cargo versions since being launched in 1985. This was over 20 years ago and while having the new large aircraft market all for itself basically until the A340 and 777 appeared.
 
AVinutso
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:32 pm

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 7):
The problem is that time plays againts Airbus. The breakeven point is not a fixed number, but also function of time. It should have been stated as "420 units by x date". My guess is that "x" is somewhere 4-5 years from now. If it will take 20 years to reach the breakeven, then the number is much higher than 420 units. Basic consequence of time-value-of-money.

Could not have said it better. 20 years to break even is like doing college on the 10 year plan. Sure you get the degree, but 10 years of financing is a lifetime of debt. The ROI has to be within the next 5-6 years. Maybe they can sell that many in 20 years, but with new tech (787, A350, and?), who is going to want to invest in old tech?
Maybe we shoulda thought of that FIRST
 
aa1818
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:34 pm

Quoting ClassicLover (Reply 2):
the A380 is a 20 year programme

the A380 is a 20 year programme?????...I think it's more of a 40 year programme (delays being included)....sorry i'm frustrated with my project due for tomorrow so i'm venting my anger on Airbus now!!! (read only as a joke!)

AA1818
“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
 
474218
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:59 pm

Quoting RedChili (Reply 26):
Actually, starting in 2010 Airbus believes that every aircraft will be delivered with a significant profit.

That profit they make on each aircraft has to go to paying off the R&D cost and the delivery compensation cost and the loan interest and the manufacturing costs. Once all those things are paid then you reach the BREAK EVEN point.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 32):
They probably mean that by 2010, that all R&D costs have already been paid, that all or most of the delay compensation has been paid, and that the income from delivered SuperJumbos will be greater than the cost of producing them.

When all the R&D is paid off and the delivery compensation has been paid and the income from from delivered aircraft is more than the cost of building that is called the BREAK EVEN point. All that will not happen by 2010.
 
zvezda
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:08 am

Quoting 474218 (Reply 43):
When all the R&D is paid off and the delivery compensation has been paid and the income from from delivered aircraft is more than the cost of building that is called the BREAK EVEN point. All that will not happen by 2010.

All that will probably not happen by 2100.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:29 am

Quoting Kangar (Reply 35):
The biggest thorn in the A380's side presently is the weakness of the dollar against the Euro. If the dollar recovers against the Euro, you will see the break even figure decrease, just as the corrollary is also correct if the dollar continues to decline.

Not even close, I'm afraid.

The biggest thorn in the A380's side are 18-24 months of production delays that have deferred billions of dollars in earnings, forced Airbus to perform a massive redesign of the electrical wiring systems, and pay compensation payments to airlines. If the A380-800 was delivered on time, we would be in the 8th month of customer deliveries and the dollar-Euro exchange rate would be nothing more than a footnote.

Quoting RedChili (Reply 26):
Do you have a link for that?

Don't kid yourself.
 
zvezda
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:33 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 45):
If the A380-800 was delivered on time, we would be in the 8th month of customer deliveries

No, we would be in the 12th month of customer deliveries. The first WhaleJet was contracted for delivery to SQ in February 2006. The first delay slipped that to April. The second delay slipped that to November. The third delay slipped that to December. The fourth delay slipped that to October 2007.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:35 am

Quoting Kangar (Reply 35):
The biggest thorn in the A380's side presently is the weakness of the dollar against the Euro. If the dollar recovers against the Euro, you will see the break even figure decrease, just as the corrollary is also correct if the dollar continues to decline.

Some analysts think the dollar needs to fall another 20-30% to bring the US trade deficit into balance.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
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N328KF
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:35 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 23):
Who built the WhaleJet is irrelevant.



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 23):
It is a structurally inefficient airliner built with previous generation technologies chasing a very tiny niche.

I think "who built it" is relevant in a sense. If it were a Boeing product, you would not have had the infighting between two key facilities, and you would have had proper integration of CAD systems. The wiring would have fit correctly, and that whole series of delays wouldn't have occurred.

Going back further, Boeing may have made other fundamentally different design decisions, such as perhaps designing the basic airframe to be smaller, around a hypothetical A380-700-sized aircraft, with the -800 being the "stretch."
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:43 am

Quoting N328KF (Reply 48):
If it were a Boeing product, you would not have had the infighting between two key facilities, and you would have had proper integration of CAD systems. The wiring would have fit correctly, and that whole series of delays wouldn't have occurred.

I'll concede that, but it would still be chasing a tiny niche market.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: 420 A380 Units To Break Even

Fri Jan 19, 2007 12:46 am

Quoting RedChili (Reply 26):
Actually, starting in 2010 Airbus believes that every aircraft will be delivered with a significant profit.



Quote:
The surprise announcement of a probable financial loss at Airbus for 2006 indicates troubles are set to continue at the European plane maker and its parent company for many months.

The unexpected profit warning, plus Airbus's disclosure that it could report new, unspecified charges, increases uncertainty about the state of EADS's finances over coming years. That murkiness is compounded by the possibility of a capital increase at EADS and concerns about how Airbus will handle a radical restructuring program that managers have been developing since July.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1169...RDS=dollar&COLLECTION=wsjie/6month
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