EGBJ
Topic Author
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Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:16 am

I thought this project was dead a buried years ago when Embraer beat them to it, but yesterday I read in the newspaper that Bombardier are finalising plans concerning a factory in Belfast to build parts of the airliner.

According to this article they now just need a firm order....

http://www.canada.com/topics/finance...090-4d11-b0a8-b41470c93c8a&k=52257

I think this project could do well, with Embraer's jets only accommodating up to 100 passengers and Boeing's 737/Airbus' A32x seating upwards from 124 seats there is definately a niche for this plane.

I'm sure they will secure an order, but from who??
 
columba
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:22 am

Quoting EGBJ (Thread starter):
I'm sure they will secure an order, but from who??

Lufthansa might be one potential customer for various reasons:

a) LH is looking for a 737-500/-300 and Avro RJ replacement

b) LH already has a huge Bombardier fleet and is currently in talks with Bombardier and Embraer for new regional aircraft

c) LH seems to be very reluctant to buy Embraer aircraft
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CRJ900X
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:30 am

Perhaps KLM will order the C-Series to replace the large fleet of F70/100 aircraft?

Northwest may also be a candidate for plane to replace the DC-9 fleet?

Cheers,

CRJ900X
 
atct
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 1:20 am

This is not to mentioning the NWA Replacing the Dc-9's....whenever that will be.  duck 


ATCT
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JayDub
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 1:25 am

Very interesting...I thought Bombardier decided sometime last year not to persue the C Series project any further.
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flyorski
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 1:27 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 1):
Lufthansa might be one potential customer for various reasons

Agreed, LH could use the aircraft.
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kappel
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 1:27 am

Quoting CRJ900X (Reply 2):
Perhaps KLM will order the C-Series to replace the large fleet of F70/100 aircraft?

It's too big for that. Isn't the C-Series a 110-130 seat aircraft? F70's seat around 70 pax, that's a big jump. Besides, a prop replacement for the F70 is more likely IMHO.
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avconsultant
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 1:45 am

Quoting ATCT (Reply 3):
This is not to mentioning the NWA Replacing the Dc-9's....whenever that will be.

Good point. Should we start a thread on this? I don't think it's been discussed.  wink 
 
dougbr2006
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 2:14 am

Quoting AvConsultant (Reply 7):
Good point. Should we start a thread on this? I don't think it's been discussed

Was discussed at the time when NW placed an order for E170's, it is expected that an order for E190/195's will follow to replace some of the MD/DC routes.

Also Air Canada are returning some Airbuses to the lessor and using E190's in their place.

Discussed last week on these forums was Embraer's plans for a bigger capacity aircraft, a new model not a stretch of the present E170/E190 series.
Embraer- What's Next? (by PavlovsDog Jan 9 2007 in Civil Aviation)?searchid=3190063&s=embraer#ID31900

I would guess if Bombardier are serious about the 'C series' then I think you will get a counter model from Embraer and with the way the E170/E190 series has been selling against the CRJ's recently, I would say that Embraer would have the edge on getting launch orders, I believe the only thing Embraer is waiting for (if they went ahead) would be a new Engine capacity, if Bombardiers offered an engine you can be sure the same will be offered to Embraer.

Another note, Embraer are hiring 3,000 new workers this year and I believe it is the opposite for Bombardier. Why do they need so many new staff!
 
lawgman
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 4:38 am

The problem as I see it is a continued lack of launch customer. Airliners will order revolutionary planes and widebodies well in advance, but securing a launch order on a plane that seats 100, has no new features and would take 5 years until delivery will be an uphill battle. IMO, the C-series is not revolutionary enough to warrant an airliner purchasing it years ahead of time. For some airlines like NW, I doubt they want to continue using their DC9s for 5 more years. The project went dormant last January unless market conditions changes, and I am not sure they have. If BBD does launch (media reports say by end of month) the c-series, I will be surprised if they have a launch customer lined up.

BBD should have purchased the Dornier 728 and 928 program and they would have been successfully competing against Embraer in the 70-100 seat category. As I understand it, BBD had a very cautious risk adverse policy and was concerned that the planes in the Dornier program did not provide the efficiency gains a new design should have over an older design. However, I think they underestimated the market for a plane of that size that was not a stretch of an existing type but was instead a new design for 70-100 the market segmant.
 
sebring
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 4:44 am

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 8):

I would guess if Bombardier are serious about the 'C series' then I think you will get a counter model from Embraer and with the way the E170/E190 series has been selling against the CRJ's recently, I would say that Embraer would have the edge on getting launch orders, I believe the only thing Embraer is waiting for (if they went ahead) would be a new Engine capacity, if Bombardiers offered an engine you can be sure the same will be offered to Embraer.

I don't think you could make any assumptions about launch orders becasue both BBD and EMB would be designing substantially different aircraft. If EMB's answer to the C series was a stretch EMB-195, it would essentially replicate the mistake made by BBD when it though it could answer the E-Jet series with a further stretch of its original CRJ tube. The larger C-series aircraft would sit 135 which would be a hell of a stretch for the EMB-195 tube. I can't even think of a 135-seat aircraft with no middle seats. It would be nice, but I doubt it would be as economical as an all-new design.
 
osiris30
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 4:47 am

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 8):
I would guess if Bombardier are serious about the 'C series' then I think you will get a counter model from Embraer and with the way the E170/E190 series has been selling against the CRJ's recently, I would say that Embraer would have the edge on getting launch orders, I believe the only thing Embraer is waiting for (if they went ahead) would be a new Engine capacity, if Bombardiers offered an engine you can be sure the same will be offered to Embraer.

If either of them go any bigger than the current E offerings I expect the response from Boeing will be both swift and vicious.. and one or both of the vendors will be put out or very close to out of business.
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sebring
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 4:57 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):

If either of them go any bigger than the current E offerings I expect the response from Boeing will be both swift and vicious.. and one or both of the vendors will be put out or very close to out of business.

Don't underestimate the need of Boeing to allow for the appearance of a competitive marketplace, and don't underestimate the need of Boeing to curry favor with the Canadian government for all of those defence contracts coming up. As it stands, the Canadian government is jawboning Boeing as we speak for more industrial offsets for Quebec province - home of BBD - to justifying paying top dollar for C-17 transports. The world is never as black and white as most of us think.

My guess is that if Boeing thought a BBD product was going to sell, it would size up that model and promise the marketplace something better within 24 months of the first C series aircraft coming off the assembly line, but it would not try to be overly aggressive, leaving enough of a market for BBD to pay its bills and make a little money but not to carve out big market share.
 
osiris30
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 5:28 am

Quoting Sebring (Reply 12):
Don't underestimate the need of Boeing to allow for the appearance of a competitive marketplace, and don't underestimate the need of Boeing to curry favor with the Canadian government for all of those defence contracts coming up. As it stands, the Canadian government is jawboning Boeing as we speak for more industrial offsets for Quebec province - home of BBD - to justifying paying top dollar for C-17 transports. The world is never as black and white as most of us think.

Well having lived up here for a while I don't know that our government will do much of anything. However, that said, the value of the Canadian contracts are nothing compared to the value of the 737 segment to Boeing. There is no way Boeing is going to give up that segment to a 3 or 4 way split. It's just not going to happen.

Boeing already fired a warning shot at both E and BBD when they announced last year they were considering getting into the RJ space. That was a (not so subtle) hint to both Bombardier and Embraer to tread lightly.

Quoting Sebring (Reply 12):
My guess is that if Boeing thought a BBD product was going to sell, it would size up that model and promise the marketplace something better within 24 months of the first C series aircraft coming off the assembly line, but it would not try to be overly aggressive, leaving enough of a market for BBD to pay its bills and make a little money but not to carve out big market share.

See above. I don't think Boeing would allow such a thing at all... and there have been many indications both psuedo-public and privately that Boeing is strongly considering splitting Y1 into two classes (5wide and 6wide). I think Boeing is more than prepared to take on these two before they become a 'major' problem for Boeing.

I would throw Airbus into the mix, but frankly their hands are so ridiculously full these days I think they will let Boeing fight this battle solo (at least for a while).
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sebring
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 5:36 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 13):

I would throw Airbus into the mix, but frankly their hands are so ridiculously full these days I think they will let Boeing fight this battle solo (at least for a while).

Hence the need for competition and why it's a good time for BBD to establish a competitive aircraft. BBD doesn't have the capacity to put a huge dent in the current narrowbody market, and so fears of what it would do to the 737 or its successor are overrated. If Boeing thinks getting into the RJ segment is really worth its attention - it was in there already and got out - it will do so regardless of BBD's intentions.
 
osiris30
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 5:46 am

Quoting Sebring (Reply 14):
Hence the need for competition and why it's a good time for BBD to establish a competitive aircraft. BBD doesn't have the capacity to put a huge dent in the current narrowbody market, and so fears of what it would do to the 737 or its successor are overrated. If Boeing thinks getting into the RJ segment is really worth its attention - it was in there already and got out - it will do so regardless of BBD's intentions.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree. If Boeing let's BBD into the space Embraer will follow. Between the two of them they will have an impact. Even if they can only fill 10% of the market by volume, they will add pricing pressure. Additionally both will have a growth option further into the market from that point on (having already grown from RJ to NB in this case).

Boeing would be foolish to leave them unchallenged. Both the 737 and 320 would be easy targets for a brand new cleansheet design these days (at the smaller end of their capacity range). Boeing and Airbus would rather milk those designs longer if possible. If BBD makes a move I don't Boeing can afford to not respond.

That complacent 'They can't hurt us' attitude got Boeing in a lot of trouble a few years back, and I don't think they will take that approach again.

I would love to see BBD succeed, but I can't see them doing it in that market.
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Rheinbote
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 6:44 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 13):
...I don't think Boeing would allow such a thing at all [...] Boeing is more than prepared to take on these two before they become a 'major' problem for Boeing.

So much for 'competition is a good thing'... but you're right. Either BBD and Airbus join up for this segment, or there may be no MD-80 replacement at all. Being faster than the competition in time-to-market, Boeing may just lean back and wait, throwing in some rumbling every now and then, scaring away investors from BBD. If BBD moves, Boeing will move faster. If BBD doesn't, Boeing may just do nothing. The 110-130 seat segment per se isn't exactly high-margin territory.
 
osiris30
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 6:59 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 16):
The 110-130 seat segment per se isn't exactly high-margin territory.

Actually to be totally honest with you, I think now would be a good time to go after that market with a purpose designed frame. If done right I'm sure the margin could be decent enough to warrant it and there are a LOT of old (and very old) aircraft in that segment right now that desparately need replacing (but also need a better alternative than the half-assed 318 and equally half-assed 736).

If Boeing gets into that market I see I 100-130 seat family, complimenting their 'traditional' Y1 which would be the rest of the current 737 range and a little bit bigger. If done with CFRP the advantages over the aircraft currently in that lower space shoud be tremendous (I'm also including modern engines, where most of the fleet that's in that size range now is prehistoric).
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
Tangowhisky
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 7:34 am

Quoting Lawgman (Reply 9):
The problem as I see it is a continued lack of launch customer. Airliners will order revolutionary planes and widebodies well in advance, but securing a launch order on a plane that seats 100, has no new features and would take 5 years until delivery will be an uphill battle. IMO, the C-series is not revolutionary enough to warrant an airliner purchasing it years ahead of time. For some airlines like NW, I doubt they want to continue using their DC9s for 5 more years. The project went dormant last January unless market conditions changes, and I am not sure they have. If BBD does launch (media reports say by end of month) the c-series, I will be surprised if they have a launch customer lined up.

Good summary Lawgman.

I doubt very much NW can be a launch customer as it is under Ch 11 protection - doubt the trustee will see a need to justify buying this plane when it comes due in 5 yrs as the next 1-2 years is the real focus for Ch11 emergence. Same goes for DL. US is becoming an E-Jet customer. CO maybe - but doubt it. AA needs to replace its MD-80s but has no interest in being a launch customer. This leaves Europeans. BA - doubt it as they are focusing on their international routes and offloading domestics. LH is likely, but they maybe be pressured by Airbus (like the 787 vs A350 to wait). In summary, very few options for launch customers other than the small fries.

Quoting Lawgman (Reply 9):
BBD should have purchased the Dornier 728 and 928 program and they would have been successfully competing against Embraer in the 70-100 seat category. As I understand it, BBD had a very cautious risk adverse policy and was concerned that the planes in the Dornier program did not provide the efficiency gains a new design should have over an older design. However, I think they underestimated the market for a plane of that size that was not a stretch of an existing type but was instead a new design for 70-100 the market segmant.

Yes, perhaps they could have gotten a few more orders stolen from Embraer. But there would have been many issues to deal with. Assuming debt and liabilities of FD which Bombardier could not at the time with its balance sheet (worse now). Also the FD728 was a direct competitor to the CRJ 700 - therefore a program/value loss had to be recognised. Given the issues and circumstances, they did the right move not purchasing the FD programs, but could have been a better home to someone like Alenia perhaps.

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 8):
I would guess if Bombardier are serious about the 'C series' then I think you will get a counter model from Embraer and with the way the E170/E190 series has been selling against the CRJ's recently, I would say that Embraer would have the edge on getting launch orders

My guess is Embraer is studying this market and design concepts while watcing what BBD will do, and how busy A and B will be over the next 5-7 years. I believe E will launch an all new plane irrespective what BBD does and does not. If it believes it can compete in the 125-155 seat market, it will launch.

As for your comment about Embraer having the edge on launch orders for an aircraft in this category - you are dead right. Embraer already infiltrated the majors with the E-190/195 that is a huge advantage and stride to leverage from. They can use cockpit commonality to make the bigger plane and follow the 1990's Airbus formula in selling their "family" of jets. The future may look like Embraer covering the 70-150 seat market efficiently with 2 platforms, while A and B covering the 130-220 seat with one platform.
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dougbr2006
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 7:52 am

Quoting Sebring (Reply 10):
If EMB's answer to the C series was a stretch EMB-195, it would essentially replicate the mistake made by BBD

Embraer have already indicated the existence of research into a new frame nicknamed 200 series at the moment, it was in a Brazillian financial website they even talked about how much investment it would take, though Embraer have refused to comment officially, and I think they did the same before the E170/190 was announced.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 11):
If either of them go any bigger than the current E offerings I expect the response from Boeing will be both swift and vicious

Boeing and Airbus both have enough on thier plates at the moment and it would be difficult for either to ramp up a new B737 or A320 they simply dont have the resources avail at this time or before 2010 if you believe what they have both been saying. I believe an cooperative alliance may be on the horizon, I would suspect A & E and maybe B & B. After all doesn't airbus have a small holding in Embraer (this i am not sure of)

According to A & B the requirements for single ailse for the next 20 years is somthing like 15,000 airframes that means A&B have to produce 375 frames each every year, i guess maybe a third producer will help a lot i dont think either have that capacity at this time thats 32 frames a month each ! wow!
 
osiris30
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 9:52 am

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 19):
Boeing and Airbus both have enough on thier plates at the moment and it would be difficult for either to ramp up a new B737 or A320 they simply dont have the resources avail at this time or before 2010 if you believe what they have both been saying.

Actually that's not what Boeing has been saying at all. Boeing has been claiming the engines for a 737RS aren't available so they aren't doing it until then. Boeing hasn't ever complained about lack of resources to my knowledge.

Additionally if Boeing did drop into the 5 wide market, the engine arguement would be at least partially mooted. Don't ever underestimate the competition.. this goes for all the involved companies (Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer).

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 19):
According to A & B the requirements for single ailse for the next 20 years is somthing like 15,000 airframes that means A&B have to produce 375 frames each every year, i guess maybe a third producer will help a lot i dont think either have that capacity at this time thats 32 frames a month each ! wow!

The last thing Boeing wants is a third (or fourth) part putting pressure on margins. They are quite happy with a Duopoly.
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WestJetYQQ
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:09 am

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 8):
Also Air Canada are returning some Airbuses to the lessor and using E190's in their place.

How many is Some?
What types is AC leasing?
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Tangowhisky
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:18 am

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 19):
Embraer have already indicated the existence of research into a new frame nicknamed 200 series .......... and I think they did the same before the E170/190 was announced.

You are 100% right.

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 19):
Boeing and Airbus both have enough on thier plates at the moment and it would be difficult for either to ramp up a new B737 or A320 they simply dont have the resources avail at this time or before 2010 if you believe what they have both been saying. I believe an cooperative alliance may be on the horizon, I would suspect A & E and maybe B & B. After all doesn't airbus have a small holding in Embraer (this i am not sure of)

According to A & B the requirements for single aisle for the next 20 years is something like 15,000 airframes that means A&B have to produce 375 frames each every year, i guess maybe a third producer will help a lot i dont think either have that capacity at this time thats 32 frames a month each ! wow!

Airbus's stake on Embraer is purely an investment. Any cooperation would require a different business tone. I don't see how a cooperation would work. Why would A and B do that? Why complicate their business. It costs them loose change to launch a 100 seat jet. For them bigger the plane, bigger the margins (think SUVs versus compacts). If they were to enter this market, it would be to ensure that bottom feeders stay at the bottom. My guess is they will compete against a good all new 100 seat jet with shrunken 150 seat jets as they have been doing with Y1. The E190/195 is taking crumbs from a big pie in the narrowbody jet. If Embraer or Bombardier come up with a 130-150 seat jet, they will take a small slice. And this small slice may be large enough for E and BBD, but not worth the development or cooperative effort for A and B.

Contrary to the belief that there are no interested partners as being the main reason, I believe that the main reason BBD is having trouble launching the C series is that they do not have good solid launch orders with solid airlines. If they get that, that would mean there is credible market interest, and then they will get investment partners and serious engine talk.

Embraer on the other hand has a higher potential to get launch customers (should they enter this market) as they continue make greater and greater penetration with mainline carriers with their 190/195. Here is a list of mainline customers that are in a good position (with cockpit commonality) to launch the E200: US, Finair, Virgin Blue, NW, Air Canada, Jet Blue, FlyBe, Egyptair, and Copa. They can all use an efficient 125-155 seat jet (some have A319s and A318s). Take note that Embraer has sold over twice as many E190s as E170s and the momentum is riding on the larger jets. This list of mainline carriers in their portfolio is increasing and this will be their greatest asset in launching a true mainline narrowbody jet. The technology and engines will be risky, but they have been through worst than that over the past 15 years.
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VonRichtofen
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:28 am

I've heard that LH is very happy with their BBD fleet and it has an incredible dispatch reliability. Can any insiders confirm this?


Kris
 
PPVRA
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 12:44 pm

Quoting VonRichtofen (Reply 23):
I've heard that LH is very happy with their BBD fleet and it has an incredible dispatch reliability. Can any insiders confirm this?

If they launch the C-series, it will come with all that comes with a new aircraft - great performance, but also bugs that need to be ironed out.

The CRJ is a proven platform because its been in service for something like 15 years. The CR7/9 are stretches with some improvements over the CR2. Essentially the same aircraft. A new family will start from reliability "unknown".
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columba
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 3:25 pm

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 18):
LH is likely, but they maybe be pressured by Airbus

Why should they be pressured by Airbus ? Airbus does not really offer an aircraft in that segment. I only can think that after the Fairchild Dornier 728 debacle they are more careful and that they don´t want to be the launch customer of a plane that nobody else wants except them.
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TSS
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 4:15 pm

Whether it be from Bombardier, Embraer, Boeing, or Airbus, a 5-across 100-125 seater aircraft already has a pre-existing market just replacing all the DC-9/MD-80s and Avro RJs out there that are getting older every day.

In order for said aircraft to be successful, it will need:
1. To be designed to accept a wide variety of engines to suit various airline's buying preferences, eg "Would you like P&W, RR, or GE engines on this order?".
2. To have a common pilot rating with other aircraft from the same manufacturer.
3. To include no experimental new technology. These will be the workhorses of whatever fleets they're in, so just building an up-to-date aircraft that uses only proven and easily serviced current technology for maximum efficiency and minimum expense will be more than sufficient for the task.
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ANITIX87
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 10:43 pm

What does this planned C-series even look like? This is the first I hear of it.

I know LX used to use EMB-135 and 145, but as they start to replace their Avro's, could this be a viable option? Especially if LH orders them?

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Tangowhisky
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:31 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 25):
Why should they be pressured by Airbus ? Airbus does not really offer an aircraft in that segment. I only can think that after the Fairchild Dornier 728 debacle they are more careful and that they don´t want to be the launch customer of a plane that nobody else wants except them.

I agree with you that they would be careful about being a lone launch customer. As for Airbus, what I meant was that they may be telling LH to wait and see what is behind the curtain of their next generation narrowbody productline (2012??)

Quoting TSS (Reply 26):
In order for said aircraft to be successful, it will need:
1. To be designed to accept a wide variety of engines to suit various airline's buying preferences, eg "Would you like P&W, RR, or GE engines on this order?".

This would be an expensive design development program and certification program. Plus where are GE, RR, P&W with design ideas for an all new super efficient 20,000 lbs thrust engine?

Quoting TSS (Reply 26):
2. To have a common pilot rating with other aircraft from the same manufacturer.
3. To include no experimental new technology. These will be the workhorses of whatever fleets they're in, so just building an up-to-date aircraft that uses only proven and easily serviced current technology for maximum efficiency and minimum expense will be more than sufficient for the task.

Well the B717 was pretty much that. Perhaps if Boeing would have invested in making a family from 100-150 seats, the B717 would have done much better. But that would have been a bad move as it would been negative for B737-700 and -600 sales. But another aspect to keep in mind is that AA, NW, etc. would dispose their MD-80s/DC-9s. etc. as long as the all new aircraft gave them large enough savings. Keep in mind that these older aircraft all paid for, pilots and mechanics are trained, and the only burden is a little extra maintenance and fuel. The later two must be addressed with compelling efficiency gains for a new aircraft type to replace this older fleet.

Now, the more I think about it, the more I see arguments that Embraer needs to seize the opportunity to launch the E200. Here are the reasons:
1) Boeing will be busy on the 787, 748 for the next 5 years.
2) Boeing will milk the 737NG productline during that time and will continue to seek orders in order to generate cash and like most of their models, they will try and get 15-20 years out of the 737NG. So we are talking about 2012-2015 earliest for a replacement.
3) Airbus can not afford to launch an A320 replacement until the A380 is fixed and orders are coming in. It will be busy for the next 6 years on 4-5 variants of the A350. It needs to A320 cash flow more than Boeing needs the B737NG cash flow.
4) In order to launch an all new plane, launch orders are "THE" confirmation that the design, performance/economic promises, and the overall objectives of the program are sound. When Embraer launched the E170 they did it with loyal customers such as Crossair. Embraer now is adding more and more "mainline" (in addition to regional) customers to its roster - which is crucial when talking about 100-150 seat jets.
5) As it has been said before, there are many many DC-9s, MD-80s, F100s, A318s, and B737-200,-300s,-500s that can be replaced with an all new efficient right-sized jet. Again, timing is critical for Embraer to seize the opportunity or lose it to A and B.
6) Embraer now has the technical credibility and is financially sound. Unlike BBD, MD, and FD, they do what they said they will do: deliver sound products, and return the promised investment to investors (equity markets, debt financeers, and risk sharing program partners). Therefore they will have the airlines, partners, as well as the financing community's confidence.
7) Embraer can develop this program with far lower development costs than A or B or BBD as their engineering labor costs are far lower. This will be attractive for investors and partners as it reduces financial risk - note that this helps minimize the break-even numbers.
8) The last reason is that things are not that rosy for Embraer. Yes they are doing well, but the E170/175 sales are drying up. The E190 is their best selling model. The E195 has very few orders and stand on shaky ground with shaky customers. Plus this plane is longer than a B737-700, it is at the limit of its efficiency. The Legacy 600, Lineage 1000 sales are hardly anything to talk about. The only other product they have are the Phenoms. But this is red ocean territory as there are too many players here with an unproven market. Even if sales were sound here, at $2.5M (roughly a piece), selling 100 of these is the equivalent of selling just six E200s. Therefore, Embraer's product line needs a sound cash generator. The E200 will have less competition than the Phenoms, and more upside potential than the E170-195 market range.
Only the paranoid survive
 
lawgman
Posts: 68
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:47 pm

Quoting TSS (Reply 26):
Whether it be from Bombardier, Embraer, Boeing, or Airbus, a 5-across 100-125 seater aircraft already has a pre-existing market just replacing all the DC-9/MD-80s and Avro RJs out there that are getting older every day.

I think the problem is that they are getting older everyday. Can the airlines that operate these aircraft wait 5 years for something new? E-Jets can replace the DC9s and Avro RJs within a couple of years and assuming Boeing and Airbus can find slots, the 737-700 and 319s can replace the MD-80s (most of the MD-80s are larger than a 100-130 seat plane).
 
lawgman
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Tue Jan 23, 2007 11:55 pm

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 28):
7) Embraer can develop this program with far lower development costs than A or B or BBD as their engineering labor costs are far lower. This will be attractive for investors and partners as it reduces financial risk - note that this helps minimize the break-even numbers.

Labor costs represent a critical advantage to Embraer (along with the strength of the Canadian dollar). If BBD is going to launch the C-Series, they will probably source a significant number of the work to its new operations in Mexico - as much as the UK and Canadian governments will let them get away with. Couple the Mexican savings with work in Belfast (subsidized by the UK government) and work in Montreal (subsidized by the Canadian and Quebec governments) and BBD may be able to meet a level playing field.

A successfull C-series won't be easy but BBD has no choice if they want to remain in the commercial airline market.
 
okie73
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 12:07 am

Quoting Lawgman (Reply 30):
A successfull C-series won't be easy but BBD has no choice if they want to remain in the commercial airline market.

this is the bottom line. Though it is still receiving orders, the CRJ series will soon be dead. If Bombardier wants to remain a viable manufacturer of commercial aircraft, they will have to develop a new product.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 1:28 am

Quoting Sebring (Reply 12):
My guess is that if Boeing thought a BBD product was going to sell, it would size up that model and promise the marketplace something better within 24 months of the first C series aircraft coming off the assembly line, but it would not try to be overly aggressive, leaving enough of a market for BBD to pay its bills and make a little money but not to carve out big market share.

Not to mention it might simply be more cost effective for Boeing to let BBD build what it want's without competing and not build a 717/737-600/A318 size product and focus on the cash cows in the 737-700 to 757-300 range. Same for Airbus with the 319-310 range. Airlines that need a 100-130 seater would go with the BDD family and airlines that need a 140-200 seater go with Boeing/Airbus. How much longer realistically will scope clauses be an issue where these size aircraft will be outsourced anyway and commonality a non-issue? Southwest probably wont shed a tear if the smallest 737 replacement seats about 140.
 
osiris30
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 1:37 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 32):
Not to mention it might simply be more cost effective for Boeing to let BBD build what it want's without competing and not build a 717/737-600/A318 size product and focus on the cash cows in the 737-700 to 757-300 range.

Rule 1 of business: Never let a competitor get a foot hold in your marketplace.

Allow BBD or E to sneak up into the 100-130 seat market leaves the door wide open for them to jump into the 140-200 seat market next.. just like letting them into the RJ market is allowing them to consider 100-130 seats..

The most cost/resource effective solution for Boeing is the one that protects their longterm market share.. giving away a 'niche' at a time doesn't do that.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 1:43 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 33):
Never let a competitor get a foot hold in your marketplace.

They don't have a 100 seat foothold. They lost it with the RJ's an will never regain it. This is why they and Airbus have both sold so few aircraft in the 100 seat market.
 
osiris30
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 1:51 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 34):
This is why they and Airbus have both sold so few aircraft in the 100 seat market.

No.. they have sold so few aircraft in that segment because they are throwing crap at the segment. The 736 and 318 aren't credible competitors in that space.

Look, since you seem hell bent on arguing this inspite of the overwhelming obvious evidence, you tell me:

Have the aircraft manufactured by Bombardier/Embraer gone up or down in seating capacity in the last 15 years. Now extrapolate that out over the next 30 years and tell me how big the aircraft they are going to be building then would be. Finally tell me if that isn't in the aforementioned sweetspot.

Think strategically about it. There are TONS of examples of this happening in industry... Asian automakers.. EVERY ONE OF THEM.. started small grew into the rest of the product line, and killed Detroit in the process.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
dougbr2006
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 2:35 am

Tangowhisky

I agree with your post on thw valid reasons why E should go ahead.

I suppose only time will tell, only E knows the plans for the coming months/years.

Guess we will have to wait it out.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 3:13 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 35):
No.. they have sold so few aircraft in that segment because they are throwing crap at the segment. The 736 and 318 aren't credible competitors in that space.

And a replacement centered around 160 seats won't be optimum either in a 100 seat variant.
 
osiris30
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 3:15 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 37):
And a replacement centered around 160 seats won't be optimum either in a 100 seat variant.

??????

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 13):
See above. I don't think Boeing would allow such a thing at all... and there have been many indications both psuedo-public and privately that Boeing is strongly considering splitting Y1 into two classes (5wide and 6wide). I think Boeing is more than prepared to take on these two before they become a 'major' problem for Boeing.

Where do you get a 5wide being centered around 160 seats???!?!?!?!?!?!?!

 banghead   banghead   banghead 
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 3:32 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 38):
Where do you get a 5wide being centered around 160 seats???!?!?!?!?!?!?!

You missed the entire context of my entire post:

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 32):
Airlines that need a 100-130 seater would go with the BDD family and airlines that need a 140-200 seater go with Boeing/Airbus.
 
lnglive1011yyz
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 3:35 am

Am I the only one who thought that Bombardier had axed the C-Series??

I found this article to be.. a shock quite frankly..

perhaps I just haven't been paying attention? :S

1011yyz
Pack your bags, we're going on a sympathy trip!
 
osiris30
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 3:40 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 39):
You missed the entire context of my entire post:

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 32):
Airlines that need a 100-130 seater would go with the BDD family and airlines that need a 140-200 seater go with Boeing/Airbus.

You're right I must have missed something because I don't see what that assumption is predicated on. Why would airlines do that. Why would Boeing be happy with keeping another competitor (or two) around.

My ENTIRE point here is that one day Bombardier and Embraer if they succeed in the 100-130 market will need to go bigger, just as they do now. That puts them directly into the area you just 'gave' Boeing.

I'm REALLY not getting what you're trying to say. Are you suggesting Boeing just not worry about. Are you suggesting that maybe once Bombardier and Embraer get into that space they'll just stop there if they are having success and say 'we could grow bigger, but nah!!!!'?
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
lawgman
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 4:27 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 32):
Not to mention it might simply be more cost effective for Boeing to let BBD build what it want's without competing and not build a 717/737-600/A318 size product and focus on the cash cows in the 737-700 to 757-300 range. Same for Airbus with the 319-310 range. Airlines that need a 100-130 seater would go with the BDD family and airlines that need a 140-200 seater go with Boeing/Airbus. How much longer realistically will scope clauses be an issue where these size aircraft will be outsourced anyway and commonality a non-issue? Southwest probably wont shed a tear if the smallest 737 replacement seats about 140.

The articles that came out at the beginning of the month on the C-series indicate that BBD has optimized the plane for 110 seats to ensure greater fuel efficiency and cost savings for airlines that want the 110 seater. The 130 would be a less effecient stretch than as initialy planned. Perhpas the focus on 110 seats over 130 by BBD will help keep the size under the Boeing's and Airbus' radar.
 
lawgman
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 4:29 am

Quoting Lnglive1011yyz (Reply 40):
Am I the only one who thought that Bombardier had axed the C-Series??

When BBD announced a year ago that they were not going ahead with the C-Series, they indicated they would keep the program alive with a skeleton staff of 50+ employees who would continue to revise the design in case market conditions changed and warranted a launch.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 9:18 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 41):
You're right I must have missed something because I don't see what that assumption is predicated on. Why would airlines do that. Why would Boeing be happy with keeping another competitor (or two) around.

1. Airlines do that today, and have for decades. They chose a fleet that fits their business plan. This is why NW has held on to their DC-9's for so long and why DL opted to dump routes previously served by 737's in favor of 50-70 seat RJ's with more frequency.
2. The lack of competition is a greater problem. Boeing themselves admit this.
 
osiris30
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 9:32 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 44):
1. Airlines do that today, and have for decades. They chose a fleet that fits their business plan. This is why NW has held on to their DC-9's for so long and why DL opted to dump routes previously served by 737's in favor of 50-70 seat RJ's with more frequency.

But your entire arguement is predicated around why someone would chose a BBD product over an ill-suited Boeing product.. but what if, as I'm suggesting and Boeing has hinted at, Boeing produces a product of equal or better quality in that space?
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 9:41 am

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 45):
But your entire arguement is predicated around why someone would chose a BBD product over an ill-suited Boeing product.. but what if, as I'm suggesting and Boeing has hinted at, Boeing produces a product of equal or better quality in that space?

1. Boeing hasn't decided what it is going to do in that class of aircraft. If the demand is for 140 and above and there is a lack of interest for a 100 seater from their customers, that's what they will build.
2. The likely BBD customers are regional and national carriers that don't need more than 130 seats. Their use would be outsourced and irrelivant from a fleet planning perspective at the Boeing or Airbus customer.

In a nut shell. BBD can build a product, and Boeing doesn't have to build a product. Boeing could have answered the RJ market, and they lost nothing by ignoring it. Airbus lost nothing either.
 
okie73
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 9:49 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 46):
In a nut shell. BBD can build a product, and Boeing doesn't have to build a product. Boeing could have answered the RJ market, and they lost nothing by ignoring it. Airbus lost nothing either.

I would disagree with you there. By allowing Bombardier and Embraer free reign in the regional market, Boeing and Airbus allowed two potential competitors to grow. Now, you have one and in the future possibly both, of these companies building airplanes that intrude into the range of airplanes offered by Boeing and Airbus. Do you think Embraer will be content to stop with the E-195? No, they will built a larger aircraft.

Of course, I believe this will ultimately be good for the airlines and thus good for the airlines customers.
 
osiris30
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 9:50 am

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 46):
Boeing could have answered the RJ market, and they lost nothing by ignoring it. Airbus lost nothing either.

This is where we fundamentally disagree. Now Boeing/Airbus are on the virge of giving away the market just one step below their cream of the NB market. The next step will be the cream of the NB market.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 46):
2. The likely BBD customers are regional and national carriers that don't need more than 130 seats. Their use would be outsourced and irrelivant from a fleet planning perspective at the Boeing or Airbus customer.

Tell that to NW and others with again fleets of 100-130 seat(ish) aircraft. I also think you are downplaying the inroads such aircraft would allow BBD and Embraer to make into the rest of the NB and eventually the WB market. The bigger the plane the larger the cash flow and the more threat those companies become.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 46):
1. Boeing hasn't decided what it is going to do in that class of aircraft. If the demand is for 140 and above and there is a lack of interest for a 100 seater from their customers, that's what they will build.

So you're saying there's no market there and therefore BBD and Embraer should chase it? I see PLENTY of demand in this segment. Especially as a replacement for larger end RJs in the next 10ish years or so.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
 
Tangowhisky
Posts: 666
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RE: Bombardier C-Series Nearing Launch?

Wed Jan 24, 2007 9:50 am

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 36):
suppose only time will tell, only E knows the plans for the coming months/years.

Guess we will have to wait it out.

yes and who knows, some people at E may be reading the threads on this site.

Quoting Osiris30 (Reply 33):
Allow BBD or E to sneak up into the 100-130 seat market leaves the door wide open for them to jump into the 140-200 seat market next.. just like letting them into the RJ market is allowing them to consider 100-130 seats..

The most cost/resource effective solution for Boeing is the one that protects their longterm market share.. giving away a 'niche' at a time doesn't do that.



Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 34):
they have sold so few aircraft in that segment because they are throwing crap at the segment. The 736 and 318 aren't credible competitors in that space.

OK, some good points made here. considering their situation, I don't think A has the luxury or can afford to throw in Euros to develop an efficient 100-130 seat jet against E or BBD for at least 6 more years. They tried with the A318 when Foregeard forced the launch of the A318 without board approval 7 years ago when Bombardier was toying with the BRJ-X. It worked, Bombardier shortly after shelved the BRJ-X, but the A318 has been a drag on Airbus.

Boeing on the other hand is talking the talk. They publicly talk about the 100 seat market, and they are telling everyone to wait for Y1. They are riding it out and using their weight with suppliers and news media to buy time.

So the question is will A and B launch a small jet and a large jet for their narrowbody replacement so that they have efficient coverage from 100 to 220 seats? The only way to do this is with a 5 abreast, and a 6-7 abreast.

If we look at Boeing's 200 to 400 seat market coverage, they cover it with two fuselage diameters: 787 and 777. Perhaps it is time that their narrowbody range is covered with two models rather than the shrink/stretch engineering that they have been practicing ever since they launched the 737 Classics.

What will B do? I don't know. But what I do know is that when Y1 and A320RS enter the market they will roll over aging 737NGs and A320S and therefore it will be difficult for a 3rd player to penetrate this market. But what about the long delay in rolling over aged 100-140 seat jets? There are a great many MD80s, DC-9, F100, B737-200-200-500 need to be rolled over now. This is the opportunity that will not wait for Embraer. The longer Embraer waits, the greater the chance these planes will be rolled over to A or B before Y1 and A320RS.
Only the paranoid survive