RichardPrice
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FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 7:26 pm

Randy Baseler has commented on the structure of the 787-10, saying it would be a 'simple stretch' of the -9 with the same weights and engines, resulting in a range drop to around 7,200nm to 7,500nm, and not be available before '2012'.

He has also said that he is sceptical that the A350-9 can achieve the range figures stated by Airbus, commenting that he would expect the range to actually be around 7,300nm.

A longer range 787-10 would take significantly more effort to develop.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...rbus-a350-900-xwb-variant-but.html

I always thought that a smaller stretch of a larger base airframe would be more efficient scale wise than a larger stretch of a smaller base airframe? Anyone care to comment on this?
 
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zeke
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 7:41 pm

Pretty clear from that article in my view that Boeing is getting Airbus data from airlines, "Airbus has not given airlines enough information yet on the specification of the A350 for them to be sure whether the performance claims are achievable,” he says. “But from what we can tell, the A350-900’s range is probably more likely to be around 7,300nm [13,500km]."
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astuteman
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 7:46 pm

Thanks for the link, Richard.
I found this an interesting article.

Obviously the two interesting bits are:-

a) Taking the 787-10 from low 7000Nm to low 8000Nm is a step-change, with engine changes, wing changes, landing gear changes etc.
We knew this I guess, but it's the first time I've heard Boeing say that the 787-10 as it stands will NOT be available before 2012, and that a "step-change" 787-10 will take longer to develop.

b) Baseler's quote that the A350-900XWB range is more likely to be 7300Nm than the 8 300Nm quoted by Airbus. i.e. the substantially bigger/heavier A350-XWB according to him only matches the existing 787-10 proposal. What's he worried about, then?  Smile

Out of interest, when did the 787-9 become a nominal 8 300Nm aircraft? I'd understood it to be in excess of 8 500Nm nominal range.

Regards
 
jacobin777
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 7:49 pm

Quoting RichardPrice (Thread starter):
Randy Baseler has commented on the structure of the 787-10, saying it would be a 'simple stretch' of the -9 with the same weights and engines, resulting in a range drop to around 7,200nm to 7,500nm, and not be available before '2012'.

Interesting...IIRC, EK stated they needed a bit more range than that if they were to go for the B787-10...could make the order race quite interesting...
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2wingtips
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 7:51 pm

EK still hasn't seen a formal proposal from Airbus re the XWB, and they don't want to see it until Airbus can give them some firm numbers. I think most other carriers are in the same position. I'm not sure if Boeing is getting XWB data from airlines, or they are coming up with their own models/approximations.
If Baseler is correct, it's a huge blow for the 350-900XWB and a huge range drop from the initial promised 8,500nm, which has already been reduced to 8,300nm.
That's not true Trans-Pacific range and would be a struggle against strong headwinds from SIN-LHR.
No wonder SQ haven't firmed up their 350 LoI yet.
 
astuteman
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 8:05 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 4):
If Baseler is correct, it's a huge blow for the 350-900XWB and a huge range drop from the initial promised 8,500nm, which has already been reduced to 8,300nm.
That's not true Trans-Pacific range and would be a struggle against strong headwinds from SIN-LHR.
No wonder SQ haven't firmed up their 350 LoI yet.



Quoting Zeke (Reply 1):
“But from what we can tell, the A350-900’s range is probably more likely to be around 7,300nm [13,500km]."

I have a suspicion that you're seeing some evidence of a "real" in-service range (i.e. airline configured, with full pax AND a whole wadge of non-pax payload too) vs. a "nominal" still-air, pax-only range.
If he was correct, and he actually thought he was, he'd be laughing his head off, saying :-

"Look, my EXISTING 787-10 will see this A350-900XWB thing off, and my plane's 50k-60k lb lighter at MTOW, too. Note to board - no action required  biggrin   biggrin ....".
He'd be one happy chappie..

In reality, the range of an airline configured 787-10 with full payload will probably drop some 1 000Nm from nominal, too.

Baseler's actions will tell you more than his words  Smile

Regards
 
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Revelation
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 8:09 pm

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 4):
EK still hasn't seen a formal proposal from Airbus re the XWB, and they don't want to see it until Airbus can give them some firm numbers. I think most other carriers are in the same position. I'm not sure if Boeing is getting XWB data from airlines, or they are coming up with their own models/approximations.
If Baseler is correct, it's a huge blow for the 350-900XWB and a huge range drop from the initial promised 8,500nm, which has already been reduced to 8,300nm.
That's not true Trans-Pacific range and would be a struggle against strong headwinds from SIN-LHR.
No wonder SQ haven't firmed up their 350 LoI yet.

EK's CEO has recently said that they won't order the A350 till design freeze, and Airbus (in an interview with Tom Williams) has said A350 won't have a design freeze till end of 2008. Given the "shell game" that Airbus has been playing with the A330-lite er A350 er A350XWB, I think it's not a bad idea to wait till design freeze.
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astuteman
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 8:23 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 6):
in an interview with Tom Williams) has said A350 won't have a design freeze till end of 2008

Bit of care here...
Williams has said that the M4 milestone, when basic performance is finalised, will be reached in MAY this Year, with M4.2 finalising the full specifications "a bit later in the year".
The M5 milestone "system design freeze" is scheduled for October 2008, and finalises the spec of EVERY system on the aircraft.

From an interview with Williams in an article published today in flight International, but not yet loaded up in flightglobal.com

Entitled "Airbus hastens XWB Supplier plan".

edit - BTW I found this a very interesting article, worthy of its own thread. Watch this space..  Wink

Regards

[Edited 2007-01-29 12:25:57]
 
keesje
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 8:34 pm

I think Randy should care more about sorting out the 787. Weight, IFE and stuff..  thumbsup 

I think maybe A is not in a hurry to communicate spec details. Maybe wait how the 787 does & then adjust & freeze.
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RichardPrice
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 8:35 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 8):
I think Randy should care more about sorting out the 787. Weight, IFE and stuff.. thumbsup

I hardly think the 787 is in that much trouble, it isnt being made by Airbus.
 
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 9:40 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 7):
Williams has said that the M4 milestone, when basic performance is finalised, will be reached in MAY this Year, with M4.2 finalising the full specifications "a bit later in the year".
The M5 milestone "system design freeze" is scheduled for October 2008, and finalises the spec of EVERY system on the aircraft.

Seems to me that A can be having two internal proposals (shells vs barrels) going in parallel till at least October.
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AirSpare
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 10:07 pm

I'll bet a few cases of beer (Urquell) that due to the 350 EIS delay, that the 777 has gained some legs in sales. The results are:

The 787-10 won't be built. A 777 replacement with capacity/range/mission profiles from the -9 to the 748I will be. B will have the time to build a Y1 and the Y3 (if I can call the 748I Y3.5).

As B built the 757 and 767 at about the same time, most of the technological foot work has been completed. As Astuteman might say, the keel has been laid. My bet B will have these 2 frames ready to offer about the same time as the 350 EIS.

Now, all of the guys that know a hell of a lot more then me can tell me why I'm wrong (no problems there, Zvezda, I'd be happy to buy you a beer!).

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astuteman
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 10:13 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 10):
Seems to me that A can be having two internal proposals (shells vs barrels) going in parallel till at least October.

If you mean October this year, I guess that's possible. They've DEFINITELY got until at least May this year, minimum  Smile

Regards
 
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 10:30 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 12):

If you mean October this year, I guess that's possible. They've DEFINITELY got until at least May this year, minimum  Smile

Regards

 checkmark ...These latest comments from the Boeing camp certainly give Airbus more time...if Baseler had stated "we got the B787-10 to the 8000nm mark w/out too much of a problem", then I would expect to see more "urgency" on Airbus' part...
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keesje
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 10:42 pm

I have the impression Boeing thought they had the -10 pretty much sorted out & now they are considering changing their minds.

Correct?

[Edited 2007-01-29 15:03:50]
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TP313
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 10:46 pm

How bringing

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 13):
"[...] the B787-10 to the 8000nm mark w/out too much of a problem",

became coventional wisdom here at airliners.net is what amazes me...

By the way, Baseler's range numbers for the 359XWB/CFRP are below what was to be expected from the Al-Li non XWB 359 (7,500 nm)...

He could have used a smarter spin saying that the current design would struggle to meet an 8,000+ nm target.

But then again he could be directing his comments at some a.netters, which brings me back
to the start of my post...

[Edited 2007-01-29 14:56:46]
 
SEPilot
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 10:52 pm

One thing is certain: Boeing and Airbus are limited by the same laws of physics. If they are using similar construction and engines their range/payload results will be similar, assuming that neither has any aerodynamic tricks that the other is unaware of. As it stands now, Boeing has an advantage in having jumped on the full CFRP fuselage bandwagon first, but that will not last. Airbus, however, is hampered by less efficient structure and management, which they need to get straightened out. They are also saddled with the A380 white elephant, which at this point is a big drain on their resources. So if I were Randy I wouldn't be losing too much sleep yet.
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Stitch
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 10:57 pm

I recall only EK and LH asking for more range, so perhaps the airlines talking to Boeing are content with a 777-200ER level of range. Considering that the 772LR is not exactly setting the world on fire in terms of sales though it offers both more range and greater payload-over-range then the 772ER, even if the A350XWB-900 can get over 7500nm, it may not be much of a selling point.

Widebodyphotog's projected 787-10 specs showed a 7,600nm range with 787-9 engines and MTOW by carrying 14,000lbs less cargo in the hold. At max fuel, she could go 7,900nm though I do not know what the payload is. And at MZFW she could fly 4,500nm which could make her a popular choice for the US domestics on Hawai'i and Carribbean service with heavy cargo demand.

And, of course, nothing prevents Boeing from launching a higher MTOW 787-10ER down the road to meet the needs of those airlines who require more range or more payload over range. It does appear from Baseler's comments that Boeing intends the next major model to be able to approach the 640,000lb MTOW limit of the wings. As such, I can understand Boeing being hesitant to spend that money if they don't have to, but it does seem to imply that Boeing is willing to launch a 787-11 and 787-11ER if it is required to fight the A350XWB-1000.

And, honestly, over the next four years I expect GE and RR to develop or refine more powerful versions of their 787-9 powerplants so the 787-10A may yet EIS with a 560,000lb MTOW and a bit better range or payload over range.

[Edited 2007-01-29 15:06:05]
 
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Stitch
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 11:01 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
I have impression Boeing thought they had the -10 pretty much sorted out & now they are considering changing their mind.

Actually, it sounds like Boeing is going to launch the 787-10 variant they always intended to.

Most of us (myself included) have been operating under the assumption Boeing has been actively changing that to increase the MTOW to 560,000lbs from 540,000lbs and use engines with 3-5,000lbs more thrust then the 787-9's powerplant will use. Now, it looks like the majority of potential 787-10 customers are content with the original specification or they want that spec "now" (2012) as it covers the majority of their missions and will take an "ER" version later for those missions that require it's extra capabilities.
 
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 11:13 pm

Thanks for the article, RP - particularly interesting since the interview seems kind of unscripted, more 'thinking aloud.'

Don't have any strong opinions on the issues raised, as yet. But the point that leaps out at me is that both manufacturers, and the airlines, seem to have fastened on an 8,000nm.-plus range, with full payload, as being the future 'sweet spot.'

Until very recently, I've rather thought that the only people who would REALLY benefit from a range like that are Southern Hemisphere types like me. It would free me from the tyranny of fuel stops at Singapore or LAX, etc. - and it would make routes from here to South Africa, or from Europe to South America, a lot more economic.

But I can't readily think of many other established routes worldwide that require a range like that. Unless (and it's a big 'unless') Boeing were even MORE right about the growth of 'point-to-point' routes (or, more accurately, 'hub-busting' routes) than any of us thought they were?
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astuteman
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 11:15 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 16):
Boeing and Airbus are limited by the same laws of physics. If they are using similar construction and engines their range/payload results will be similar, assuming that neither has any aerodynamic tricks that the other is unaware of.

However, the A350-900XWB is (currently) envisaged as a 590 000lb MTOW aircraft with 87 000 lb thrust engines, whereas the current 787-10 is envisaged as a 540 000lb MTOW aircraft with 75 000 lb thrust engines.
As you say, with the same c. 310 pax capacity, and using similar construction/engines, and the same laws of physics, the A350 XWB should fly substantially further.....
TP313 makes the (very good) point that Baseler's statement predicts that the 590 000lb "all-composite" A350-XWB will have a shorter range that the old aluminium "A330 derived" 540 000lb A350...... scratchchin 


Quoting TP313 (Reply 15):
By the way, Baseler's range numbers for the 359XWB/CFRP are below what was to be expected from the Al-Li non XWB 359 (7,500 nm)...



Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):
Widebodyphotog's projected 787-10 specs showed a 7,600nm range with 787-9 engines and MTOW

Mr. Baseler's specs say 7 200Nm - 7 500Nm .....  Smile

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
Most of us (myself included) have been operating under the assumption Boeing has been actively changing that to increase the MTOW to 560,000lbs from 540,000lbs and use engines with 3-5,000lbs more thrust then the 787-9's powerplant will use. Now, it looks like the majority of potential 787-10 customers are content with the original specification

Or alternatively, any change beyond 540 000 lb is considered "major engineering", which Boeing will need to be confident can be justified by the market....

Regards
 
airfrnt
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Mon Jan 29, 2007 11:59 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 20):
TP313 makes the (very good) point that Baseler's statement predicts that the 590 000lb "all-composite" A350-XWB will have a shorter range that the old aluminium "A330 derived" 540 000lb A350......

I think that if there is one thing we can all agree on here, is that the market was very skeptical of Airbus's performance claims thus necessitating many different revisions.
 
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 12:27 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
I have the impression Boeing thought they had the -10 pretty much sorted out & now they are considering changing their minds.

As did I, but I can't fault Boeing for waiting to further define the 787-10. They have a great deal of work on their hands with the initial three 787 variants, and Boeing can only benefit by waiting to see more details about the A350 before firming the 787-10.

I am disappointed though, I was hoping the 787-10 launch was just around the corner...  Sad

Quoting Airspare (Reply 11):
I'll bet a few cases of beer (Urquell) that due to the 350 EIS delay, that the 777 has gained some legs in sales.

Certainly the 777LR variants, but I don't think the 772ER will get much love despite any A350 set-backs.

Quoting RichardPrice (Thread starter):
A longer range 787-10 would take significantly more effort to develop.

Be it as it may - it would be far more practical to develop the 787-10 with desirable payload/range than it would to re-engineer the 777.
 
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 12:55 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 20):
However, the A350-900XWB is (currently) envisaged as a 590 000lb MTOW aircraft with 87 000 lb thrust engines, whereas the current 787-10 is envisaged as a 540 000lb MTOW aircraft with 75 000 lb thrust engines.
As you say, with the same c. 310 pax capacity, and using similar construction/engines, and the same laws of physics, the A350 XWB should fly substantially further.....

....if those extra 50000lb is used to carry more fuel (and/or if it's not being eaten up by a much higher OEW.)

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 20):
TP313 makes the (very good) point that Baseler's statement predicts that the 590 000lb "all-composite" A350-XWB will have a shorter range that the old aluminium "A330 derived" 540 000lb A350......  scratchchin 

True, but if that turns out to be the case, there are several reasons to why that's possible. Lets think about what's happened since the old A350....
1) All members of the XWB family was supposed to have a range of 8500nm when the family was launched at Farnborough last summer, and they had grown it grew considerably from the old A350. MTOW for the A359XWB was increased by 20 tons, the fuselage got 12 inches wider, the wings got three metres longer and got a 20-25% increase in wing area, and it was designed to carry 14 more passengers than the old A359. That's a whole lot of extra weight to carry around, and it wouldn't surprise me if most of that 20 ton increase in MTOW comes from a similar increase in OEW. That doesn't help much in terms of extending the range...
2) Before the XWB was (re)launced in December, it was known that the A359R that had been proposed to airlines didn't even match the A345 on range. The A359R was supposed to have a 1000nm longer range than the A359 (according to Airbus,) and that puts the range of the A359 to below 8000nm.
3) When the XWB was relaunched, range had dropped to 8300nm from 8500nm for the A359.
The things above leads me to agree with the following:

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 21):
I think that if there is one thing we can all agree on here, is that the market was very skeptical of Airbus's performance claims thus necessitating many different revisions.

 checkmark 
 
aa1818
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 1:05 am

I think Boeing should focus on popping the -3, -8 and -9 out of the factory well under weight, more fuel efficient than promised, under budget and on time. Deliver more than they promised to airlines, and then focus efforts on not merely stretching the 787, but imporving it so that it can be engineered into a 772ER/ LR and 773ER replacement in the one 787 platform. If that means a different wing, reinforced carriage etc, then so be it. Airlines would be far more willing to have one family, 2 different familieis of engines, 2 different wings- after all they were all very happy with operating the 767/777 etc. that way the 787 family becomes kind of like the A330/A340 in many ways, wish a/c that are simply not just a stretch but are essentially the same family. I don't know if i've made sense here so i'll stop!

Cheers
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keesje
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 1:09 am

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 22):
As did I, but I can't fault Boeing for waiting to further define the 787-10. They have a great deal of work on their hands with the initial three 787 variants, and Boeing can only benefit by waiting to see more details about the A350 before firming the 787-10.

  

Seems the smartest strategy: learn & listen as long as you can. Decisiveness and a clear long term vision can be pretty damaging if the world isn´t listening..

If they ever decide on a bigger -10, Boeing will most likely not only look at 1 new version but a couple new versions (-11, -F, -LR, -KC, -whatever) to e.g. replace 777s.

[Edited 2007-01-29 17:23:02]
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Stitch
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 1:09 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 20):
Or alternatively, any change beyond 540 000 lb is considered "major engineering", which Boeing will need to be confident can be justified by the market....

Well we know Boeing can get an extra 20,000lbs out of the undercarriage, but I believe even if all of that was fuel (and it won't be since Boeing has to expand tankage and that will require more structure), range would only increase around 500-750nm. And if 78,000+ pound thrust engines require more strengthening and are therefore heavier and require stronger struts, Boeing may have ended up with a 560,000lb MTOW plane with thousands of pounds of OEW beyond just the fuselage stretch itself that provided less then 500nm extra range.

So Boeing may have gone back to the airlines and said "range is 400nm better and performance is 1-2% worse" at which point the airlines said "we'll take the original, thank you".
 
EvilForce
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 1:24 am

I agree with many of the comments made. I do think however this means there will not be a 787-11 anytime soon, bordering on never. I think Boeing is going to have it's line sold out for more demand than it can meet for another decade or more. Only then would we see a 787F version or the remote possibility of a 787-11 version.
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SEPilot
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 1:41 am

One thing I believe Boeing has shown is that they are pretty well attuned to what the market wants. I agree with those posters who say they are smart to wait until the final version of the A350XWB is determined before committing themselves to the -10 or -11 specs. I also don't believe the -11 will be built; I think Boeing will build Y3 instead.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
astuteman
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 2:12 am

Quoting Brendows (Reply 23):
That's a whole lot of extra weight to carry around, and it wouldn't surprise me if most of that 20 ton increase in MTOW comes from a similar increase in OEW

So in summary, Airbus:-
a) added 50 000 lb to the MTOW
b) committed to an extra $5Bn minimum in development costs
c) committed to a completely different industrial model
d) forewent GE as a player across the A350 range
e) caused RR to commit to developing a whole new range of (bigger) engines
f) added some 30%-40% to the asking price of an A359

just so that they could trade some 14 extra passengers, for 200 Nm less range, compared to the "old" A350-900.   .

I can only believe that if this was indeed the case, virtually every airline who had either ordered the A350, or was even in the market for it, would have committed to the 787 by now. But they haven't.

Regards

[Edited 2007-01-29 18:14:21]
 
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zeke
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 2:40 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 29):
e) caused RR to commit to developing a whole new range of (bigger) engines

I cannot fault your logic, not to mention that the Trent XWB should have a slightly better thermal efficiency coming out a little later then the GEnx/Trent 787, and slightly better propulsive efficiency due to the larger fan.
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astuteman
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 2:53 am

Quoting Zeke (Reply 30):
I cannot fault your logic, not to mention that the Trent XWB should have a slightly better thermal efficiency coming out a little later then the GEnx/Trent 787, and slightly better propulsive efficiency due to the larger fan.

Airbus claim that the Trent-XWB will have a 2% SFC advantage over the GEnx.

Of course, extrapolating the counter-argument, as that is an Airbus claim, the Trent XWB will in all probability be bigger, heavier, more expensive, and LESS efficient - which sounds like the perfect powerplant for the A350XWB, doesn't it?  Wink

Regards
 
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Stitch
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 3:06 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 29):
I can only believe that if (Airbus spent a lot of money for very little performance gain) was indeed the case, virtually every airline who had either ordered the A350, or was even in the market for it, would have committed to the 787 by now. But they haven't.

The big question, however, is that while I am sure Airbus has no intention of such a horrible outcome, they keep changing the plane's configuration and performance on a very frequent basis.

Every iteration of the A350 and A350XWB is presented as having new materials, new technologies, and new advances to offer more payload, more range, and more efficiency. And yet each time competitive RFP's go to the 787 and Airbus goes back and makes it even more "new" and more "improved".

I have given little credence to the perceived "credibility gap" some believe Airbus is facing with customers over the A380 delays and the "version of the week" progress of the A350. But maybe airlines are showing more then a little skepticism at Airbus pulling it off as they claim and as 787 slots become more and more precious, Airbus may be offering grander and grander claims to try and keep those airlines holding off on ordering the 787 in the interim...

I admit to being slightly worried that Airbus' sales team may have promised the "moon and the stars" to try and blunt the momentum Boeing has built and continues to build with the 787 and that Airbus' engineers are telling them "it can't be done" so Airbus' management keeps approving spec changes to try and "make it possible".
 
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zeke
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 3:07 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 31):
Airbus claim that the Trent-XWB will have a 2% SFC advantage over the GEnx.

My understanding that was a 2% SFC improvement over the original 350, I have not seen a reference to the GEnx.

It is a bigger engine, producing more thrust, so I think, bigger  thumbsup , heavier  thumbsup , more expensive  thumbsup , and LESS efficient  thumbsdown .
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
astuteman
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 4:47 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
I admit to being slightly worried that Airbus' sales team may have promised the "moon and the stars" to try and blunt the momentum Boeing has built and continues to build with the 787

I don't have any problem with wanting to see "the white's of their eyes" when it comes to delivered performance.
I also don't have an issue with the fact that Airbus are having to jump through various hoops in order to try and produce something that either equals or beats the 787. The 787 IS a "stretch" target in its own right ..  Smile

I'll tell you what causes me to come off the "A-net rails".

Whatever its limitations, the old A350 garnered 100 firm orders. It also had 100 pretty robust commitments from airlines like QR (a commitment made 20 months ago..), which, if Airbus had continued with it, would easily have seen 200 firm orders now, quite likely 250 firm orders, and, not unfeasibly, 300 firm orders as we sit here today.

OK, some may say that points to "the fact" that Airbus should have kept on going with it. Maybe, maybe not, but that's not my point.
My point is, the "old A350" MUST have been competitive ENOUGH to sell on its own merit, against the "stretch target" 787, in sufficient quantities to be viable.

Irrespective of what SUH might have said, I cannot believe that Airbus would be continuing down the A350XWB route UNLESS the feedback from the airline community was that the A350XWB is better than the old A350, and by enough of a margin to justify the 6 points I raised above.

They wouldn't do this JUST to make SUH happy.

Ergo, whatever the numbers are (and in most quoted cases on A-net, the numbers are almost meaningless), the A350XWB MUST be a substantially better product, with substantially better prospects, than the aircraft it replaced, which whilst undoubtedly second-best, was demonstrably not far off the mark. (If the "old A350" had been "far off the mark", you would have seen a re-run of the A340NG scenario).

Whether it's good enough to meet the claims being made is a different matter.

Regards
 
Rheinbote
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 5:26 am

I could imagine that Boeing - having been pushed into 772 territory by 1) Airbus conststantly upping the ante on seats and 2) insatiable wannabe customers like EK - finally bites the bullet and redesigns the 787-10 landing gear bay to accommodate six-wheel bogies.
Citing the A350XWB as threat that needs to be addressed is something both A and B can live with. I stand by my assessment that the 787 probably wasn't originally conceived to grow to 320 seats 3C at >8000NM range - because that's 777 territory. Whatever, a new landing gear bay, six-wheel bogies and some structural beef-up in places will get them there.
Wouldn't be surprised at all if these 787-10 high gross weight enablers would make it into the -9 as well. More so as B reportedly abandonend commonality between -3/-8 and -9 wings in favor of grouping -9 and -10 more closely.
 
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Stitch
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 5:30 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 34):
My point is, the "old A350" MUST have been competitive ENOUGH to sell on its own merit, against the "stretch target" 787, in sufficient quantities to be viable.

Agreed. The 787 was taking the majority of the orders, but the A350 was winning her fair share. However, see my final paragraph...

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 34):
I cannot believe that Airbus would be continuing down the A350XWB route UNLESS the feedback from the airline community was that the A350XWB is better than the old A350, and by enough of a margin to justify the 6 points I raised above.
Ergo, whatever the numbers are...the A350XWB MUST be a substantially better product...with substantially better prospects, than the aircraft it replaced...

Perhaps. Or perhaps it's better then the old A340 and good enough compared to the old A350 that airlines were more receptive to it because it gave them an Airbus upgrade path for both their A330s and their A340s and didn't force them to look to the 777 as their eventual A340 replacement, which might have ended up compelling them to choose the 787 as their eventual A330 replacement, as well.

In other words, Airbus might lose some sales as an A332 replacement because of it's size, but they'll win more sales as an A343/A345/A346 replacement because of it's size as well as better competing in RFP's against the Boeing 787 and 777 duo.

And I think the 787 and 777 duo was a very effective weapon Boeing was utilizing. A 9Y 787 and 10Y 777 offer mighty compelling economics versus an 8Y A350 and 8Y A340, even if they fall on comfort. And yet an 8Y 787 and 9Y 777 will still beat an 8Y A350 and 8Y A340 in economics while offering equal or better comfort.

So while QR may have chosen the A350 over the 787 (at least through switching LoUs), Boeing placing 777s with QR in the interim may have led to QR starting to reconsider that decision. And EK, which is taking 777s by the score, most likely started to wonder if operating 100 777s and 100 A350s was as efficient and effective as operating 100 777s and 100 787s.

So Airbus may have seen some of those commitments start to waver as Boeing's sales teams used the 777's performance to spread their own FUD about the A350 and boost the 787. This may have been what forced Airbus to "go wide" and make the A350 a true A333-A346 replacement model and to better take the fight directly to the 777 family.
 
Lumberton
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 5:49 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 7):
From an interview with Williams in an article published today in flight International, but not yet loaded up in flightglobal.com

Entitled "Airbus hastens XWB Supplier plan".

edit - BTW I found this a very interesting article, worthy of its own thread. Watch this space.. Wink

Here's the link:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...bus-hastens-xwb-supplier-plan.html
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
gbfra
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 6:02 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 32):
I have given little credence to the perceived "credibility gap" some believe Airbus is facing with customers over the A380 delays and the "version of the week" progress of the A350. But maybe airlines are showing more then a little skepticism at Airbus pulling it off as they claim and as 787 slots become more and more precious, Airbus may be offering grander and grander claims to try and keep those airlines holding off on ordering the 787 in the interim...

You may be able to sell dreams to a.netters and/or journalists, but you definitely can't sell them to smart airline experts, who know as much about engineering than A or B. Possibly, you might fool them once but never twice.

As for the "credibility gap" of Airbus this is mainly media hype, happily received by some a.netters. Airlines, afaik, and I'm talking to some of their people on a regular basis, don't necessarily think so. They still believe that Airbus has the capability to develop competetive aircraft. Even if they need some time to come up with the right idea.

It would have been easy for LH, to just give one example, to order the B787. Why not, it's obviously bound to become a fantastic a/c? But LH has delayed a decision because they firmly believe that Airbus will present a competetive version of the A350. And LH might have more information about the new A350 than the typical armchair a.netter.

The recent history of the A350 is definitely one of errors and omissions. But many airlines do not care as long if the final product suits them. And don't forget: They would not be happy to face a Boeing monopoly in this segment. Many airlines want Airbus to be present in this market, and for this reason, they will order the A350 if it is competetive.

Besides, this does not only apply to Airbus. LH had negociated for five long years with Boeing about the configuration of the B748. It simply didn't become public, whereas the problems of the A350 were public right from the start. Nevertheless, it was a long and, at times, very tough story, which came to a happy end, with LH finally ordering the B748.

Airlines are often much more patient than a.netters.
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
2wingtips
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 6:31 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 20):
TP313 makes the (very good) point that Baseler's statement predicts that the 590 000lb "all-composite" A350-XWB will have a shorter range that the old aluminium "A330 derived" 540 000lb A350......

And you can vouch for the fact that the promised range for the non-composite A350 was correct?
Expect changes to the 359 specs if Airbus wants range at 8,000nm+.
 
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 7:51 am

The 787-9 will be the the main airplane of the first generation 787 family. The 787-10 will be similar to what the 777-300 was before the arrival of the 777-300ER. Around 2015, when the second generation 787 comes out, the 787-10ER and -11 will grow the family as the original 777 get retired.
 
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 7:58 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 40):
The 787-9 will be the the main airplane of the first generation 787 family. The 787-10 will be similar to what the 777-300 was before the arrival of the 777-300ER.

The 787 orderbook currently looks thus -

787-3 - 43
787-8 - 332
787-9 - 72

The -9 is nowhere near the 'main airplane of the first generation 787 family'.

Source http://active.boeing.com/commercial/...ageid=m25062&RequestTimeout=100000
 
atmx2000
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:33 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 14):
I have the impression Boeing thought they had the -10 pretty much sorted out & now they are considering changing their minds.

If think the fact they hadn't launched it suggests that they were waiting on customers to commit to a proposal. But given the time to EIS and Airbus's plans being in flux, there is no reason for anyone to bite.

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 41):
The -9 is nowhere near the 'main airplane of the first generation 787 family'.

I believe the -9 is suffering from a combination of customers evaluating it versus the lower A350 model, and -8s grabbing available slots because of the lack of a competing Airbus model.
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jacobin777
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:39 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 41):
787-3 - 43
787-8 - 332
787-9 - 72

The -9 is nowhere near the 'main airplane of the first generation 787 family'.



Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 42):

I believe the -9 is suffering from a combination of customers evaluating it versus the lower A350 model, and -8s grabbing available slots because of the lack of a competing Airbus model.

the B797-9 was offered much later than the B787-8 and has been picking up steam in orders lately...also, customers such as NZ have switched (some or all, not sure) from the B787-8 to the B787-9...
"Up the Irons!"
 
ikramerica
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 8:55 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
Most of us (myself included) have been operating under the assumption Boeing has been actively changing that to increase the MTOW to 560,000lbs from 540,000lbs and use engines with 3-5,000lbs more thrust then the 787-9's powerplant will use. Now, it looks like the majority of potential 787-10 customers are content with the original specification or they want that spec "now" (2012) as it covers the majority of their missions and will take an "ER" version later for those missions that require it's extra capabilities.

I think this is likely accurate. One only needs to look at the strong sales of the A333 to show that a plane of that size with sub 7000nm range and good efficiency is a strong seller. The 787-10 could end up being the A333 killer more than the 772ER killer.

The 777-200ER did not come right away either, as the 777-200A came first.

But I still wonder if Boeing is having an internal fight, where the 777 team is fighting against offering the 787-10 at 8200nm range largely because it will kill off the sales of the 772LR, which without extra tanks has a range in the 8000s as well.

Or it might just be that customers are not looking for another long range plane between the 8000nm+ 789 and the 7900nm 77W at this time, and that the few that are will make do with the 772LR. The 787-10 would then fill in on routes that the A332 can run now, but in the size of the A333 (at 8Y).

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 42):
I believe the -9 is suffering from a combination of customers evaluating it versus the lower A350 model, and -8s grabbing available slots because of the lack of a competing Airbus model.

Not much different than the 762/763 timeline, where the 762 won many initial sales, but the 763 ended up being the stronger seller.

In this case, the 788 is not undersized like the 762, so I would expect that over time, the 788 and 789 would sell equally well.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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Stitch
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 9:07 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 44):
But I still wonder if Boeing is having an internal fight, where the 777 team is fighting against offering the 787-10 at 8200nm range largely because it will kill off the sales of the 772LR, which without extra tanks has a range in the 8000s as well.

I expect their is some...tension...between the 777 and 787 teams. But, in the end, the decision will be made by senior management and that decision will be driven by sales of both families.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 44):
Or it might just be that customers are not looking for another long range plane between the 8000nm+ 789 and the 7900nm 77W at this time, and that the few that are will make do with the 772LR. The 787-10 would then fill in on routes that the A332 can run now, but in the size of the A333 (at 8Y).

And most customers may just not want to haul around the extra OEW necessary to provide an extra 500-700nm of range. EK wants equivalent range across their entire widebody fleet because it would allow them to use any plane on any route at any time, but they may be a minority - albiet a mighty vocal one.  Smile
 
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 9:40 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 29):
So in summary, Airbus:-
a) added 50 000 lb to the MTOW
b) committed to an extra $5Bn minimum in development costs
c) committed to a completely different industrial model
d) forewent GE as a player across the A350 range
e) caused RR to commit to developing a whole new range of (bigger) engines
f) added some 30%-40% to the asking price of an A359

just so that they could trade some 14 extra passengers, for 200 Nm less range, compared to the "old" A350-900. scratchchin .

The range figures in this article comes from Randy Baseler, and I would take them just as "seriously" as any words coming out of John Leahy's mouth... I would take all range figures published by Airbus' representatives with a grain of salt until a firm configuration is released together with a payload/range-diagram.
But I agree with you, it doesn't make much sense when you look at that summary. But I think the following quote gives an answer to some of the things above:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
Or perhaps it's better then the old A340 and good enough compared to the old A350 that airlines were more receptive to it because it gave them an Airbus upgrade path for both their A330s and their A340s and didn't force them to look to the 777 as their eventual A340 replacement, which might have ended up compelling them to choose the 787 as their eventual A330 replacement, as well.

In other words, Airbus might lose some sales as an A332 replacement because of it's size, but they'll win more sales as an A343/A345/A346 replacement because of it's size as well as better competing in RFP's against the Boeing 787 and 777 duo.

and as you say:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 34):
Irrespective of what SUH might have said, I cannot believe that Airbus would be continuing down the A350XWB route UNLESS the feedback from the airline community was that the A350XWB is better than the old A350, and by enough of a margin to justify the 6 points I raised above.

I believe Stitch is pretty spot on, and as you suggesed Astuteman: the A350XWB is a much more capable aircraft than the old A350 was, Airbus can compete against both the 777 and the 787 now.

Here's something I've been thinking about that might show why the old A350 wasn't that much of a competitor against the 787:
The A359XWB is about one metre shorter than the old A359 and carries (according to Airbus' figures) 314 pax in a nine abreast config, vs. 300
pax in an eight abreast config on the old A359. 246 out of those 300 seats were in Y, which is as much as 32-33 rows (due to the taper at the end of the fuselage.) The fuselage of the A350XWB has a parallel cross-section from door 1 to 4, something the old A350 didn't have, and that gives the A350XWB the ability to carry nine seats abreast in the entire Y cabin.
But why does the A359XWB accommodate only 14 more seats when it can hold one extra Y seat per row, and more seats at the back too?
One possibility is that Airbus increased the seat count on the old A350 (by adding more Y seats) to make the weight per seat or fuel burn per seat figures look better (compared to the 787.) Airbus doesn't need to fiddle that much with the numbers to make the A350XWB attractive compared to the 787 and 777.

Airbus has shown during the last six months that what they first promise (Farnborough) isn't what airlines are offered. Airbus and Boeing can claim whatever they want, but delivering what they promise is another thing. That's why Airbus has been forced to go back to the drawing board time after time, and the airlines saw that Airbus could make the A350(XWB) even better.
But why did airlines ordered the old A350 in the first place?
A representative from Finnair said: Airbus offered a Mercedes at the price of a Lada - That offer was easy to accept." Which leads us to this:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 29):
I can only believe that if this was indeed the case, virtually every airline who had either ordered the A350, or was even in the market for it, would have committed to the 787 by now. But they haven't.

I agree that it's a bit puzzling. Airlines must have received some "sweeteners" to stay committed/order the A350. I believe the quote above from Finnair says a lot...
The old A350 wasn't a lousy aircraft, and the A350XWB isn't that either, but the airlines are obviously seeing more potential in the design, thus the pressure on Airbus to enhance it even more. What else can the airlines that are committed to the A350 do? Cancel the order/commitment, and order the 787 instead, just to wait until 2013/2014 to receive them?... I guess that's why a three to four year delay is endurable... (EIS for the A358 was scheduled to be in late 2009 during the second half of 2004, with first flight in mid 2008 ill .)

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 39):
Expect changes to the 359 specs if Airbus wants range at 8,000nm+.

 checkmark  And I believe that's part of the reason behind the rumours about the design change (CFRP shells->CFRP barrels.)
 
atmx2000
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 9:45 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 44):
Not much different than the 762/763 timeline, where the 762 won many initial sales, but the 763 ended up being the stronger seller.

In this case, the 788 is not undersized like the 762, so I would expect that over time, the 788 and 789 would sell equally well.

Arguably, the offering and availability of the 763ER was the limiting factor. The non ER 763 booked its first order in 1983, but only 34 were sold before the first -300ER was sold in 1987, which was about year ahead of EIS of that model, but 6 years after 762 EIS in 1982 and 10 years after the first non ER 762 was booked in 1978.

I believe the problem with the 767 family was Boeing's inability to adjust MTOW like they can with the 787. Boeing has said as much that they don't want to offer ER models, presumably to avoid problems like they had with some 767 models not selling well. Presumably that has something to do with the smaller models being either too heavy or under performing.
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dank
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 10:28 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 43):
the B797-9 was offered much later than the B787-8 and has been picking up steam in orders lately...also, customers such as NZ have switched (some or all, not sure) from the B787-8 to the B787-9...

I don't believe that this is true. IIRC the -3, -8, and -9 were launched simultaneously. The problem for some with the -9 is that it has a later EIS than the other two. I think that a couple of things are driving early sales the -8 way (the -9 is clearly in the sweet spot of the lineup at the moment), earlier availability, and the fact that it is closer in size to the 767s which a lot of the early adopters were going to want (and that a lot of the traditional boeing airlines would want). I expect that in the long term, the -9 will begin to sell more and that longer range versions of Y1 and the airbus 320 replacement will replace some of the transatlantic 757s and possibly 767 services.

Cheers.
 
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RE: FI: 787-10 To Face A350-900 Challenge

Tue Jan 30, 2007 10:48 am

Quoting Dank (Reply 48):

I don't believe that this is true. IIRC the -3, -8, and -9 were launched simultaneously.

Hi Dank...while I agree with rest of your posts, I have the correct infor regarding the B787-9.... Smile

"Boeing’s stretched 787-9 variant has been formally launched following Qantas’ decision to order up to 115 787 family aircraft over the competing Airbus A350-800/900 for its mainline operations as well as for its Jetstar low-cost subsidiary."*

*source:Flightinternational.com - 20/12/05
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